美国：沃什提名后引发了反向交易 国信证券主要观点如下： 当市场预期全年降息的逻辑过于一致时，沃什的提名引发了缩表的预期并带来了美元指数的反弹。当下 为此担忧还尚早，由于美国上半年的时薪、消费、就业压力均较大，且上半年通胀的压力不大，故而降 息的必要性依然较高；另外，关于缩表的更多信息要到5月份主席换届之后才将逐渐清晰。 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，1月美股上涨幅度显著小于新兴市场，将美元指数反弹看成 是阶段性，26年上半年依然认为新兴市场机会更大。但有两个风险需要跟踪：一是原油价格因地缘冲突 的大幅上涨；二是长债利率继续向上大幅攀升。美元指数反弹，美债利率上行一定程度上对港股的资金 面产生负面影响。但人民币升值依旧，港股业绩稳健上修，以及并不认为美元指数反弹能够持续，故而 依然看好港股后续的行情。板块方面，建议关注AI、PPI方向原材料及工业等。 1、AI方向：AI方向产生分化，景气部分是半导体、云计算、算力链，而应用方向短期受到外卖战、去 年筹码较为拥挤的影响表现不佳，随着外卖战的减弱以及价格的回调，加之大模型应用场景的不断丰 富，AI应用依然是2026年的战略方向之一。 2、PPI方向的原材料 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - On February 3, 2026, SHFE silver futures closed at 21,446 CNY/kg, down 16.71% from the previous day[1] - The premium of SHFE silver futures over LME silver decreased from 29.8% at the end of January to 7.46% by February 3[1] - SHFE silver futures rose by 5.93% in the night session on February 4, closing at 22,393 CNY/kg[1] Group 2: Precious Metals Insights - The long-term narrative for precious metals remains unchanged, with expectations of continued support for gold prices due to "de-dollarization" and loose fiscal and monetary policies[3] - The volatility of silver futures remains high, with implied volatility reaching 148% on February 2 and remaining above 100% on February 3, compared to an average of 27% in 2025[5] - Gold futures implied volatility was close to 40% as of February 3, significantly higher than the 19% average for 2025[5] Group 3: Commodity Market Dynamics - The liquidity shock has ended, as indicated by the opening of the silver futures limit down on February 3, suggesting a stabilization in market risks[5] - The commodity market is expected to return to fundamental pricing logic for certain products that were "wronged" during the liquidity crisis[5] - The core logic of the commodity market remains intact despite the liquidity shock, with solid fundamentals for certain commodities still offering investment value[5] Group 4: Sector-Specific Analysis - Non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum are expected to benefit from new economic demands driven by AI and green energy, despite recent price adjustments[6] - The chemical sector is experiencing a structural demand shift, with emerging industries driving growth, indicating potential for continued market improvement in 2026[6] - New energy metals, particularly lithium carbonate, are projected to achieve supply-demand balance, presenting bullish investment opportunities[6]

| 伴得吗 | 名称 | 现价 | 张跌 | 涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 上证指数 | | 4102.20 +34.46 +0.85% | | | | 399001 | 深证成指 | 14156.27 +29.16 +0.21% | | | | 399006 创业板指 | | 3311.51 -13.38 | | -0.40% | | 000688 科创50 | | 1453.48 -17.59 | | -1.20% | 盘面上，居民取暖拉动能源需求攀升，煤炭、煤化工板块大爆发，大有能源、山西焦煤及中煤能源等十 余股涨停；马斯克团队秘访中国光伏企业，光伏设备板块走高；航空机场板块拉升；玻璃玻纤、HIT电 池、房地产开发及装修建材等板块涨幅居前。另外，腾讯云板块下挫；贵金属板块走低；AI应用端普 跌，Sora概念、多模态AI领跌，引力传媒跌停；文化传媒、游戏及算力概念等跌幅居前。 具体来看： 煤炭股掀涨停潮，恒源煤电、开滦股份、山西焦煤、大有能源、兖矿能源、美锦能源等近15股涨停。 | 代码 名称 | 涨幅量 | 涨跌 | 现价 | | --- | ...

板块题材上，煤炭开采加工、光伏设备、机场航运、房地产、钢铁、天然气、建筑材料、零售板块涨幅居前；贵金属、AI 应用、算力租赁、半导体、游戏传媒、CPO概念股跌幅居前。盘面上，马斯克团队密访中国多家光伏企业消息提振光伏板块情 绪，晶科能源、TCL中环等10余股涨停。随着迎峰度冬能源保供，煤炭需求增加，煤炭板块集体大涨，兖矿能源、陕西黑猫等 10余股封板。地产链同样表现活跃，招商蛇口、保利发展等股上扬。此外，石油天然气、机场航运、零售等板块均有拉升。另 一方面，部分高位黄金股回补下跌，四川黄金盘中逼近跌停。云计算、算力租赁板块大幅回调，网宿科技、优刻得、大位科技 跌幅居前。 A股三大指数今日涨跌不一，截至收盘沪指涨0.85%，深成指涨0.21%，创业板指跌0.4%，北证50指数跌0.71%，沪深京三 市成交额25033亿元，较上日缩量624亿元，三市超3200只个股上涨。 ...

A股三大指数今日涨跌不一，截至收盘，沪指涨0.85%报4102点，深证成指涨0.21%，创业板指跌0.4%，科创50指数跌1.2%。全市场成交额2.5万亿元，较前 一交易日缩量624亿元，超3200股上涨。 | 涨幅榜 | 资金净流入 | 5日涨幅* | | --- | --- | --- | | 煤炭 | 航空 | 软饮料 | | +8.00% | +4.04% | +3.599 | | 建材 | 房地产 | 海运 | | +3.25% | +3.03% | +2.679 | 盘面上，居民取暖拉动能源需求攀升，煤炭、煤化工板块大爆发，大有能源、山西焦煤及中煤能源等十余股涨停；马斯克团队秘访中国光伏企业，光伏设备 板块走高，晶科能源、中来股份等多股20CM涨停；航空机场板块拉升，华夏航空、中国东航涨停；玻璃玻纤、HIT电池、房地产开发及装修建材等板块涨 幅居前。另外，腾讯云板块下挫，泛微网络（维权）跌停；贵金属板块走低，四川黄金跌近9%；AI应用端普跌，智谱AI、Sora概念领跌，引力传媒跌停； 文化传媒、游戏及算力概念等跌幅居前。(格隆汇) | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证5( | | --- | -- ...

Group 1 - The current trading price of silver TD is above 22,254, with an opening price of 21,550 per kilogram and a current price of 22,400, reflecting a 7.10% increase [1] - The highest price reached today is 22,761, while the lowest was 21,550, indicating a volatile trading session [1] - The price of silver TD has shown a rebound after a significant drop of over 10% in the previous days, suggesting a potential recovery trend [1] Group 2 - The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon reported an incident involving an Israeli drone dropping a stun grenade near their patrol, which did not result in casualties [1] - The Israeli military's actions are deemed a violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and international law, emphasizing the need for respect towards peacekeeping forces [1] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed distrust towards Iran during a meeting with the U.S. Middle East envoy, highlighting ongoing geopolitical tensions [1] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the silver TD price is currently in an upward trend, with the MACD showing positive momentum, although the trend line remains below the zero line, indicating lingering bearish risks [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral, and the Directional Movement Index (DMI) suggests a return to an upward trend [1] - Key support levels for silver TD are identified between 20,500 and 21,500, while resistance levels are noted between 22,500 and 23,500 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline in precious metal prices is a technical adjustment to the irrational rise seen since the beginning of the year, rather than the end of a long-term bull market for gold [1] Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - The short-term drop in gold prices is primarily due to previous irrational surges and retail leverage acting as a volatility amplifier, causing severe corrections from minor disturbances [1] - As the deleveraging process across various exchanges concludes, gold prices are expected to stabilize gradually [1] Group 2: Long-term Outlook and Investment Opportunities - In the medium to long term, the global monetary system is undergoing continuous restructuring, with significant room for central bank gold purchases, indicating that the long-term trend for gold will persist [1] - Overall, the long-term outlook for gold remains intact, and investors are advised to pay attention to opportunities arising from the recent price declines [1] - Investors may consider participating in future pullbacks and gradually accumulating positions during dips [1] Group 3: Investment Products - Direct investment in physical gold and tax-exempt gold ETFs, such as Guotai (518800), as well as gold stock ETFs covering the entire gold industry chain (517400), are recommended [1]

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The report indicates that after significant fluctuations in gold and silver prices, the market is influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and the strong dollar, which may lead to a bearish outlook for gold prices in the short term [11][12][10] - The report suggests that high-risk investors with insufficient positions may consider participating in gold and silver trading to adjust their holdings, while long-term asset allocation should reduce gold's proportion due to uncertainties surrounding inflation control and strong dollar policies [11][12][10] Group 2: Market Performance in January - In January, precious metals continued to show strong performance, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and increased demand for safe-haven assets, with COMEX silver rising by 131.61% and COMEX gold increasing by 26.44% from November 2025 to January 28, 2026 [13][14] - The report highlights a structural recovery in the domestic stock market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 4.6% in January, while the performance of financial and consumer sectors was relatively weak [15][19] Group 3: Commodity Market Insights - The report notes that the commodity market is characterized by increased geopolitical disturbances and rising risk premiums for physical assets, with industrial metals supported by recovering manufacturing activity and structural demand from AI and renewable energy sectors [29][30] - Oil prices are influenced by geopolitical factors, particularly the situation in Iran, with expectations of oversupply in the medium term as global supply is projected to increase significantly [35][36] Group 4: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market is expected to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to oscillate between 1.8% and 1.9% due to policy support and market expectations [28][21] - The report indicates that the defensive attributes of the bond market have weakened, reflecting a shift in investor preference towards equities and commodities amid rising risk appetite [16][21]

2月4日，A股市场早盘震荡回落，沪指翻绿，创业板指盘中跌超2%。沪深两市半日成交额1.63万亿，较上个交易日放量127亿，全市场超2900只个股下 跌。 消息面上，据券商中国援引其他媒体报道，印尼政府提出大幅减产计划，该国矿商已暂停现货煤炭出口。资料显示，中国是印尼最大进口国（2024年进口 2.42亿吨，占其出口量42.73%），暂停出口将影响中国动力（600482）煤供应的5.3%，加剧东南沿海电厂库存压力。与此同时，国内也有关于煤炭价格上 涨的消息传来。 贵金属板块开盘全线反弹后重挫翻绿，随后呈低位震荡走势。紫金矿业（601899）、湖南黄金（002155）、白银有色（601212）等多只贵金属概念股亦由 涨转跌。 国投白银LOF今日复牌再度跌停，报3.825元，最新溢价率为64.6%。 消息面上，在经历了1月30日、2月2日两个交易日的暴跌之后，现货黄金价格连续第二天反弹，重新站上5000美元大关，现货白银也一度涨至88美元/盎 司。 具体板块来看，太空光伏概念走势强劲，中来股份（300393）20cm涨停，国晟科技（603778）2连板。机场航运概念走强，中国东航（600115）、华夏航 空（002 ...

Market Overview - On February 4, the A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index turning negative and the ChiNext Index dropping over 2%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 2900 stocks declining [1]. Sector Performance - The space photovoltaic concept showed strong performance, with Zhonglai Co. hitting the daily limit and Guosheng Technology achieving two consecutive limits. The airport and shipping sectors also performed well, with China Eastern Airlines and Huaxia Airlines reaching their daily limits. The real estate sector was active, with Rong'an Real Estate and Caixin Development hitting their daily limits. The hydrogen energy concept surged, with Jingcheng Co. and Zhiyuan New Energy reaching their daily limits [4]. - The coal sector experienced a significant surge, with major coal companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining and China Coal Energy both hitting their daily limits. Other stocks such as Shaanxi Black Cat and Meijin Energy also reached their daily limits, while Shaanxi Coal and Chemical, Shanxi Coal International, Xinji Energy, and China Shenhua followed suit [4]. Coal Supply Impact - Reports indicate that the Indonesian government has proposed a significant production cut, leading to a suspension of spot coal exports by local miners. China is the largest importer of Indonesian coal, with an expected import of 242 million tons in 2024, accounting for 42.73% of Indonesia's total exports. This suspension is projected to impact China's thermal coal supply by 5.3%, increasing inventory pressure on power plants in Southeast China. Additionally, there are reports of rising coal prices domestically [6]. Precious Metals Market - The precious metals sector opened with a rebound but later turned negative, with companies like Zijin Mining and Hunan Gold experiencing declines. The National Investment Silver LOF resumed trading and hit the daily limit down, with a latest premium rate of 64.6%. After significant drops on January 30 and February 2, spot gold prices rebounded to over $5000, while spot silver reached $88 per ounce [7]. - Market sentiment remains volatile, with speculative funds showing significant movement. The geopolitical uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations continues to pose risks. Overall, the precious metals market is influenced heavily by market emotions, with short-term volatility risks to be monitored, while long-term trends remain optimistic [7]. Individual Stock Highlights - Guizhou Moutai's stock rose over 2%, reaching a price above 1500 yuan for the first time since September 15, 2025 [8]. Hong Kong Market - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell over 2%, with many tech stocks in Hong Kong experiencing declines. Notable drops included Bilibili down over 4%, Tencent Holdings down over 3%, and other companies like Baidu, Lenovo, NetEase, Meituan, and Xiaomi all falling over 2% [9]. Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a collective downturn, with Bitcoin experiencing a high-level correction of nearly 40% [10].