Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures both increased. Industrial silicon rose by 3.33%, mainly driven by the rise in polysilicon. Polysilicon rose by 6.95%, driven by the anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, but the increase converged and prices fell on Friday. Next week, the futures prices are expected to consolidate at high levels with a downward - shifting center of gravity [5]. - For industrial silicon, on the supply side, the spot price increased significantly. The fertilizer subsidy policy in the Northwest Yili region remained stable, and large - scale producers showed no signs of production cuts. The production cost in the Southwest decreased, with some regions having a positive resumption of production. On the demand side, the overall demand from the three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) continued to slow down [5]. - For polysilicon, on the supply side, the overall production increased this week, with some enterprises increasing production and some under maintenance. On the demand side, affected by the anti - involution meeting, production capacity declined significantly, and downstream demand weakened marginally. The overall demand side still faces great pressure [5]. - In terms of operations, it is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, with a stop - loss range of 7800 - 9200. The main contract of polysilicon should oscillate in the short term, with an oscillation range of 40000 - 45000 and a stop - loss range of 38500 - 46000 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon prices rose by 3.33% this week, driven by polysilicon. There were rumors of silicon material storage, but they were unconfirmed. Polysilicon prices rose by 6.95%, driven by the anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, but prices fell on Friday due to weak downstream feedback [5]. - **Market Outlook**: For industrial silicon, supply increased, and demand from downstream industries slowed down. For polysilicon, supply increased slightly, and demand faced great pressure. If the silicon material storage rumor is disproven next week, prices are expected to fall [5]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract of industrial silicon should oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, and the main contract of polysilicon should oscillate in the short term within 40000 - 45000, with corresponding stop - loss ranges [5]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures and spot prices rose, and the basis strengthened. As of July 18, 2025, the spot price was 9350 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 655 yuan/ton. The production and operating rate increased, with a national output of about 78,900 tons and a capacity utilization rate of 54.33% [11][13][20]. - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices rebounded, the basis weakened, and the spot price remained flat. As of July 18, 2025, the spot price was 46 yuan/kg, and the basis was 2150 yuan/g [15][17]. 3.3. Industry Conditions - **Raw Materials and Costs**: Industrial silicon raw material prices fell slightly, electricity prices decreased, and overall costs continued to decline during the wet season. The electricity price in the Southwest was stable at 0.3 yuan/kWh, and the silica price remained stable [23][26]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased, social inventory increased, and the overall inventory remained flat. As of July 18, 2025, the number of warehouse receipts was 50,357 lots, a decrease of 435 lots, and the total social inventory was 553,000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons [28][30]. - **Downstream Organic Silicon**: Production and operating rates increased, short - term profits were restored, but costs increased significantly, leading to a decline in profits. As of July 18, 2025, the weekly output was 44,900 tons, the operating rate was 71.38% (up 1.97%), the spot price was 10,860 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan/ton), the gross profit was 63 yuan/ton (down 263 yuan/ton), and the cost was 10,797 yuan/ton (up 323 yuan/ton) [33][37][44]. - **Downstream Aluminum Alloy**: Spot prices fell, inventory increased significantly, and passive de - stocking continued. As of July 18, 2025, the price was 20,100 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton), and the inventory was 37,200 tons (up 5800 tons) [46][48]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell**: Silicon wafer and battery cell prices fell, while polysilicon prices rose, but downstream acceptance was weak. As of July 18, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.17 yuan/piece (down 0.02 yuan/piece), and the battery cell price was 0.26 yuan/watt (down 0.02 yuan/watt) [53][55]. - **Polysilicon Production Cost and Output**: The cost of trichlorosilane (photovoltaic grade) remained flat, while the industrial silicon price increased, leading to higher production costs. In June 2025, the total output of polysilicon plants in China was 92,160 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from the previous month (a 3.15% month - on - month decrease) [60][65].

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices experienced significant volatility, with a peak increase of over 4%, reaching a maximum of 549.4 yuan per barrel [6][8] - The rise in oil prices is attributed to expectations of marginal supply contraction and geopolitical risks affecting supply uncertainty, alongside a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories [8] - OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production, which may offset reductions in U.S. shale oil output, maintaining a balanced supply-demand scenario [8] Group 2: Polysilicon Market Trends - Polysilicon prices showed high volatility, with a trading range fluctuation of 6.67%, peaking at 46,000 yuan per ton before stabilizing above 43,000 yuan [2][4] - The average market price for polysilicon (N-type dense material) increased by 5.7 yuan per kilogram week-on-week, with production costs rising due to higher silicon powder prices [4] - Market sentiment for polysilicon remains positive, with expectations of continued strong performance despite potential overcapacity issues [5] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Supply and Pricing - Lithium carbonate futures prices surged, with a peak increase of 4.32%, reflecting a recovery of over 15% from year-to-date lows [9][11] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 65,000 yuan per ton, an increase of 8.52% from late June [11] - Supply disruptions due to regulatory actions against companies like Zangge Mining have contributed to price fluctuations, indicating a cautious market outlook [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial Silicon: Short - term watch [3] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish in the long - term [6][8] 2. Report Core View - Industrial silicon's supply - demand pattern has improved due to low开工 of northwest and southwest factories and lower - than - usual production in the southwest, with reduced inventory. The overall commodity sentiment has a positive impact, but the influence of policies on the industrial silicon industry needs attention. For polysilicon, recent price increases are driven by policies and funds. Policy implementation and price transmission need to be monitored, and it is suitable for long - term low - level long - position layout [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On July 17, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong oscillation. The main contract 2509 opened at 8,750 yuan/ton and closed at 8,745 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous settlement. The main contract's open interest was 381,048 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,357 lots, an increase of 142 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,100 - 9,300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ton [1]. - As of July 17, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 547,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 120,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 427,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [1]. - The price of organic silicon DMC was 10,600 - 11,000 yuan/ton. The DMC price of Shandong monomer enterprises increased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,800 yuan/ton this week, while the prices of other domestic monomer enterprises remained stable. The market's mainstream transaction center was around 10,800 yuan/ton. Although the low - price quotes in the domestic market increased slightly, the matching degree of transactions decreased, and downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness was limited due to sufficient raw material inventory [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term watch, and short - position holders should pay attention to stop - losses or use options for protection [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On July 17, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures continued to rise, opening at 43,900 yuan/ton and closing at 45,700 yuan/ton, a 7.49% increase from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract was 70,964 lots (71,783 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 410,795 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feeding material was 32.00 - 36.60 yuan/kg (an increase of 1.80 yuan/kg), dense material was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 44.50 - 49.00 yuan/kg (an increase of 1.25 yuan/kg), and N - type granular silicon was 41.00 - 45.00 yuan/kg [3]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 249,000 tons, a decrease of 9.78% from the previous period, and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.02 GW, a decrease of 5.70%. The weekly polysilicon output was 23,000 tons, a decrease of 5.00%, and the silicon wafer output was 11.10 GW, a decrease of 3.37% [4]. - In the silicon wafer market, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.25 yuan/piece (an increase of 0.25 yuan/piece), N - type 210mm was 1.67 yuan/piece (an increase of 0.32 yuan/piece), and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.43 yuan/piece (an increase of 0.28 yuan/piece) [4]. - In the battery cell market, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.26 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W [4]. - In the component market, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W [5]. - **Strategy** - In the long - term, it is suitable to lay out long positions when the price is low. In the short - term, be cautiously bullish [6][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The US tariff policy and Trump's vision of manufacturing reshoring and revitalizing the traditional petrochemical energy system will challenge global economic growth and drag down the global photovoltaic industry. In the second half of the year, China's manufacturing industry is expected to return to an expansion trend. The anti - involution meeting will promote effective capacity reduction in the photovoltaic industry, and the expansionary fiscal policy and flexible and loose monetary policy will inject vitality into the Chinese economy [3][61]. - In terms of supply, the production in Xinjiang was under pressure in the first half of the year, the production in Sichuan and Yunnan was extremely low during the dry season, and the new production capacity in Inner Mongolia and Gansu was limited. The number of open furnaces nationwide decreased. After the anti - involution meeting, the photovoltaic industry's capacity reduction will accelerate in the second half of the year. It is expected that the annual output in 2025 will drop to 3.8 million tons, a decrease of about 22% compared with last year [3][61]. - In terms of demand, the anti - involution meeting emphasizes eliminating backward production capacity in the photovoltaic industry. The downstream battery and component markets will reduce production and load, and the terminal ground - based power station installation volume and photovoltaic glass production will decline significantly. The upstream silicon materials will enter a passive contraction cycle. Organic silicon has limited price - increase space under the dual pressures of cost squeeze and demand decline, and the output of aluminum alloy may not rebound due to the slowdown in real - estate completion and infrastructure investment. It is expected that the total consumption of industrial silicon in China in 2025 will decrease by about 5% compared with last year [3][48][62]. - In the second half of 2025, with the gradual clearance of excess capacity in the photovoltaic industry, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon will improve significantly. The domestic manufacturing industry will return to the expansion range, and the futures price may enter a stable upward cycle. It is expected that the main operating range of industrial silicon in the second half of 2025 will be between 8,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton [3][62]. Summary by Directory 2025 First - Half Market Review - In the first half of 2025, the industrial silicon futures price first declined and then rebounded. The price dropped from 11,130 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to a minimum of 6,990 yuan/ton in early June, a decline of 37.2%. In the first quarter, the supply - demand imbalance was aggravated. Although the production in the southwest was low, the new production capacity in Gansu and Inner Mongolia was put into operation, and the consumption of silicon materials decreased. After April, enterprises rushed to install before the new policy on May 31, but the price still fell. After the anti - involution meeting in June, the price rebounded from the bottom, and the main contract rebounded to 8,280 yuan/ton by the end of June [8]. Macroeconomic Analysis Strengthening the Domestic Cycle and Promoting a Unified Market, with the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Remaining Moderately Loose - In the first half of the year, China's economy faced challenges such as the deterioration of the global trade situation and the slowdown of GDP growth. The central bank implemented a series of policies, including lowering the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate by 0.1% to 1.4%, reducing the deposit - reserve ratio by 0.5%, and increasing re - loan quotas. China's economy showed a stable and progressive trend in the first half of the year, with industrial production accelerating, high - tech industries developing rapidly, and domestic demand gradually recovering [10][11]. Manufacturing PMI Marginally Expanded and Rebounded, and the Anti - Involution Meeting Emphasized Capacity Reduction in Key Industries - In June, China's official manufacturing PMI index rebounded to 49.7, close to the boom - bust line. The production and new - order indexes were in the expansion range, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing industry's prosperity. The anti - involution meeting emphasized the governance of the photovoltaic industry's low - price and disorderly competition, aiming to guide the withdrawal of backward production capacity and promote high - quality development [12][14]. Fundamental Analysis Domestic Production: Xinjiang's Production Remained at a High Level Throughout the Year - In the first half of the year, the production in the northern main production areas of industrial silicon gradually recovered, but the recovery in Xinjiang was less than expected. The production in Sichuan and Yunnan was at a historical low during the dry season. The new production capacity in Inner Mongolia and Gansu compensated for the shortage in the southwest. In the second quarter, the production in the main production areas rebounded slightly. The total industrial silicon output in the first half of the year was 1.869 million tons, a significant decrease of 17.9% year - on - year. The output proportion was gradually shifting to the north [16][17]. The Newly - Added Domestic Production Capacity from 2025 - 2026 Will Significantly Slow Down - As of June this year, China's total industrial silicon production capacity reached 7.483 million tons, with an effective production capacity of 7.408 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate in 2024 was only 65.6%. From the first quarter of this year to the end of 2026, the total newly - added construction and put - into - production capacity is 2.382 million tons, with 1.782 million tons planned for 2025 and only 600,000 tons expected in 2026. The supply - side reform of the photovoltaic industry will ease the over - supply pressure [30][31]. Domestic Inventory Remained at a High Level, and the Export Growth Rate Slightly Declined - As of July 3, the domestic social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, a slight increase of 13,000 tons compared with the end of last year. The warehouse - receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange first increased and then decreased. From January to May, the cumulative export of industrial silicon was 272,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. Although the external demand for industrial silicon is increasing, the export volume is expected to decline slightly in the second half of the year due to the supply - side reform of the photovoltaic industry [38][39]. Industrial Silicon Demand Analysis The Anti - Involution Meeting Guides Capacity Reduction, and the Photovoltaic Industry's Supply - Side Reform Is in Progress - In the first half of the year, the polysilicon market was in a difficult situation, with high inventory, falling prices, and weak demand. After the anti - involution meeting, the production volume in July may drop to below 90,000 tons, a significant decrease of more than 20% compared with December last year. The silicon wafer, battery, and component markets also faced challenges such as over - supply and price decline. The photovoltaic glass manufacturers agreed to jointly reduce production by 30%, and the photovoltaic installation volume is expected to decline significantly in the third quarter [41][44]. Organic Silicon: Cost Collapse and Weak Demand, with Limited Rebound Space Expected in the Second Half of the Year - From January to June, the cumulative output of organic silicon DMC was 1.227 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. The DMC price declined due to cost collapse and weak demand. The production profit in the second quarter shrank significantly, and some small and medium - sized enterprises were forced to stop production for maintenance. It is expected that the output of organic silicon will decline in the third quarter [45]. The Aluminum Alloy Output Increased Steadily, but the Real - Estate and Building Materials Industries May Struggle in the Second Half of the Year - From January to May, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 7.405 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. However, the real - estate market's completion growth rate is expected to be sluggish, and the infrastructure investment growth rate has cooled slightly. The output growth rate of aluminum alloy is expected to drop to 3 - 5% in the second half of the year, and the processing fees of various aluminum products may continue to decline [47]. The Demand Growth Rate of Industrial Silicon Will Continue to Slow Down in the Second Half of 2025 - The photovoltaic industry will face capacity - reduction pressure in the second half of the year, and the demand for industrial silicon from organic silicon and aluminum alloy will also be affected. It is expected that the total consumption of industrial silicon in 2025 will decrease by about 5% compared with last year [48]. 2025 Second - Half Market Outlook - The US tariff policy and Trump's policies will challenge the global photovoltaic industry. In the second half of the year, China's manufacturing industry will expand, and the anti - involution meeting will promote the photovoltaic industry's capacity reduction. The supply of industrial silicon will decrease, and the demand will also slow down. It is expected that the supply - demand pattern will improve, and the futures price will enter a stable upward cycle, with the main operating range between 8,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton [61][62].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by various factors including geopolitical events, economic data, and supply - demand dynamics in different industries. For example, the potential change in the 20% tariff on Chinese goods due to the fentanyl issue between the US and China is worth attention [7]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to move within a range. For instance, gold is expected to oscillate upward, while tin's price is weakening [14][35]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fentanyl Issue - Trump believes China will soon sentence fentanyl traffickers to death and is optimistic about reaching an agreement on illegal drugs with China. However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that the fentanyl problem is the US's own issue, and the US's imposition of tariffs on fentanyl has damaged Sino - US cooperation in the anti - drug field. The 20% tariff on Chinese goods due to the fentanyl issue remains in effect, and whether it will change is worthy of attention [7]. 3.2 Commodity Recommendations by the Director - **Bean Meal**: Since mid - July, the domestic bean meal futures have stopped falling earlier than US soybeans and broken through the technical resistance level. The reasons are the strong sentiment in the domestic commodity market and the low - valuation advantage of bean meal. Although the short - term fundamentals are weak, there are no additional negative impacts. Once the US soybean price recovers, the bean meal price will break through. After the current rally, there is a risk of a pullback, and attention should be paid to the fundamentals such as the trade agreement, US soybean weather, and the August USDA report [8][9]. - **Caustic Soda**: In the short term, the supply and demand of the caustic soda market have not changed much, with sufficient supply and increased shipments to major downstream industries. The spot has no upward momentum, and the futures have been weak in the past two days. In July, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda has decreased significantly compared to June, and new capacity of 1.1 million tons may be added in July - August. The new capacity pressure is basically digested by exports. The demand is in the off - season, but the cost is strongly supported by the weak liquid chlorine. It is recommended to participate in the 10 - 1 spread arbitrage [11]. 3.3 Commodity Research Morning Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver is expected to break through and rise. The trend intensity of both is 1 [14][18][23]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The good US economic data supports the copper price. The trend intensity is 0 [14][26][29]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to move within a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][30]. - **Lead**: The downside may be limited, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][32][33]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend intensity of - 1 [14][35][39]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the marginal change in inventory. The trend intensity is 0. Alumina is expected to oscillate strongly with a trend intensity of 1, and cast aluminum alloy is weaker than electrolytic aluminum with a trend intensity of 0 [14][40][42]. - **Nickel**: The news affects market sentiment, and the fundamentals are under pressure. The trend intensity is 0. Stainless steel is in a game between reality and macro factors, and the steel price oscillates. The trend intensity is 0 [14][43][47]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side disturbances have emerged again, and the short - term trend may be strong. The trend intensity is 1 [14][48][50]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are accumulating, and attention should be paid to market sentiment. The trend intensity is 0. Polysilicon's futures may rise and then fall, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][51][55]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it oscillates strongly. The trend intensity is 0 [14][56]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market sentiment remains strong, and they oscillate widely. The trend intensity of both is 1 [14][59][61]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: The steel procurement sentiment remains strong, and they oscillate widely. The trend intensity of both is 0 [14][63][65]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke has completed the first round of price increase and oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Coking coal oscillates widely, and the trend intensity is 1 [14][66][68]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and it oscillates and stabilizes. The trend intensity is 0 [14][70][73]. - **Log**: It oscillates widely [74].

Report Information - Report Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Report Highlights 1. Market Performance and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The main contract price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The closing price of Si2509 was 8,745 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. The trading volume was 1,033,119 lots, and the open interest was 381,048 lots, with a net increase of 1,200 lots [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of 553-grade in Inner Mongolia was 8,800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 8,550 yuan/ton. The price of 421-grade in Inner Mongolia was 9,050 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang was 9,000 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9,300 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: After continuous price increases, the spot price stabilized. The strong performance of polysilicon drove industrial silicon to fluctuate strongly. The improvement in fundamentals was limited. In the second week of July, the output of industrial silicon remained at 72,000 tons. The resumption of production in the southwest产区 offset the production cut of large factories in Xinjiang. The output in July is expected to remain at 310,000 tons. Demand improved marginally. The production schedule of polysilicon increased slightly in July, and the demand for organic silicon remained stable. In the short term, the fundamental driving force was limited. The strong rise of polysilicon may drive the current price to continue to increase, but from the perspective of average cost and the cancellation price of previous warehouse receipts, 8,800 - 9,200 yuan/ton is a resistance range to be challenged. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [4]. 2. Market News - On July 18, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,354 lots, a net increase of 142 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - In the second week of July, the average price of polysilicon N-type re-feeding material was 45,500 yuan, and the average price of N-type dense material was 44,000 yuan [5]. - In the second week of July, the national comprehensive price of industrial silicon was 8,851 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan/ton. Among them, the price of 553-grade was 8,602 yuan/ton, 441-grade was 8,852 yuan/ton, and 421-grade was 9,425 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, 100 yuan/ton, and 128 yuan/ton respectively. The comprehensive prices in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan were 8,749 yuan/ton, 9,734 yuan/ton, and 9,600 yuan/ton respectively. The FOB price remained stable overall [5].

Core Viewpoint - The controlling shareholder of Hoshine Silicon Industry (合盛硅业) is divesting 5.08% of its shares to alleviate financial pressure, amidst the company's first anticipated loss since its public listing in 2012 due to declining industrial silicon prices and operational challenges in the photovoltaic sector [2][3][12]. Group 1: Share Transfer Details - Hoshine Silicon announced that its controlling shareholder, Ningbo Hoshine Group, plans to transfer 5.08% of its shares to Xiao Xiugan for a total price of 2.634 billion yuan [2][4]. - Prior to the transfer, Hoshine Group and its concerted actions held 78.59% of the company's shares, which will decrease to 73.51% post-transfer [5]. - The transfer price of 43.90 yuan per share represents a discount of approximately 10% compared to the closing price before the agreement [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Challenges - Hoshine Silicon is facing significant financial pressure, with total interest-bearing debt around 298 billion yuan and cash reserves of only about 22.30 billion yuan as of the end of Q1 2025 [2][12]. - The company is expected to report a net loss of 300 million to 400 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking its first loss since 2012 [2][11]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 260 million yuan, indicating a projected loss exceeding 560 million yuan in Q2 [2][11]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The anticipated loss is attributed to a significant drop in industrial silicon sales prices and operational disruptions in the photovoltaic sector, leading to a decline in demand [3][12]. - Hoshine Silicon's revenue and net profit have been declining since 2021, with a notable drop in sales and profitability over the past three years [11]. - The company aims to focus on its core business, optimize resource allocation, and enhance production efficiency to navigate through the current industry downturn [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries continues to show a slowdown trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - to - long - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,745 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the position of the main contract is 381,048 lots, down 43 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 70,457 lots, down 2,674 lots; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 50,215 lots. The 8 - 9 month industrial silicon spread is - 10 yuan, down 15 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 455 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the DMC spot price is 10,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, up 0.72 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,179.3 tons, up 7,624.27 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 69.41%, up 1.17 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.645 million tons, up 117,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2]. Industry News - There are rumors that the restart plan of large factories has been cancelled. The operation of small and medium - sized enterprises in the northwest is stable, and in the southwest region, state - owned enterprises, self - supplied power enterprises, and organic silicon supply - guaranteeing enterprises are mainly operating. The US PPI annual rate in June was 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest since September 2024. The US economy is slowing down in the short - term, and it is expected that China may gradually follow with interest rate cuts. Short - term observation of Fed policies is needed [2]. Supply - side Analysis - The spot price of industrial silicon has risen significantly this period. The fertilizer subsidy policy in Yili, Northwest China, remains stable. Large - scale production enterprises have not reported any news of production cuts or shutdowns. The production cost in the southwest region has decreased. Enterprises in Baoshan are actively restarting production, but the restart scale in Nujiang and Dehong has not met expectations. Factories in Sichuan are mainly focusing on ensuring supply and relying on self - supplied power plants for production, and the overall operating rate has not increased significantly [2]. Demand - side Analysis - In the organic silicon sector, the spot price has increased, production profits have recovered, and enterprises are increasing production, which supports industrial silicon. In the polysilicon sector, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, the industry is operating at a reduced load, and downstream photovoltaic demand has declined significantly, reducing the demand for industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy sector, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, inventory has increased, prices are flat, and they are in a passive de - stocking phase, with little impetus for industrial silicon demand. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries is still slowing down [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals and precious metals. For precious metals, they are expected to maintain high - level oscillations due to market uncertainties. For copper, the price is under pressure due to supply - related factors. Alumina's supply - demand pattern is evolving from tight balance to structural surplus. For electrolytic aluminum, the price is short - term under pressure, and the consumption off - season may not be overly pessimistic. The casting aluminum alloy price is mainly influenced by cost and aluminum price. Zinc price may be pressured by fundamentals. Lead price has potential to rise due to supply - demand changes. Nickel price is weak but with cost support. Stainless steel price is under pressure due to supply - demand imbalance. Industrial silicon price is expected to be strong in the short - term. Polysilicon price is also expected to be strong. Lithium carbonate price will be in high - level oscillations in the short - term and may decline in the fourth quarter [2][4][10][13][18][25][29][33][37][40][43][47][54]. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold rose 0.68% to $3345.985/oz, London silver rose 0.49% to $37.87/oz. The US dollar index fell 0.23% to 98.39, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.4488%, and the RMB exchange rate rose 0.05% to 7.177 [2]. - **Important Information**: Trump's rumor of firing Powell caused market turmoil, and US June PPI data was lower than expected. The Fed's economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic, and the probability of interest rate changes is given [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: PPI data eased CPI concerns, but inflation and Fed's rate - cut timing uncertainties remain. Precious metals are expected to oscillate at high levels [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Try long positions on dips near the 5 - day moving average; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Night - session Shanghai copper 2508 contract fell 0.01% to 77950 yuan/ton, LME copper fell 0.21% to $9637/ton. LME and COMEX inventories increased [7]. - **Important Information**: Rumors about Powell's dismissal affected the market. In May 2025, there was a global refined copper supply surplus. A copper transport route in Peru was unblocked, and a Chilean company's copper production increased [7][8]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is relatively sufficient, price is pressured, and market procurement is mainly for rigid demand [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold short positions; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: Night - session alumina 2509 contract fell 53 yuan to 3086 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly stable or slightly increased [12]. - **Important Information**: Related meetings emphasized market construction. There were domestic spot transactions, and inventory and production data showed changes [12][13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand pattern is changing from tight balance to surplus, and the price is under pressure [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillate under pressure in the short - term, high - sell and low - buy in the range; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [14]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: Night - session Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract rose 15 yuan to 20445 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions increased [16]. - **Important Information**: Aluminum inventories decreased, and there were rumors about Powell's dismissal. Housing completion data was provided [18]. - **Trading Logic**: Macro events may affect overseas aluminum prices, and the domestic market focuses on policy expectations. The supply - demand situation is complex, and the consumption off - season may not be too bad [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Aluminum price is under short - term pressure, beware of price fluctuations caused by Powell's situation; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [19]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: Night - session casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 35 yuan to 19845 yuan/ton, and spot prices were mostly stable [23]. - **Important Information**: Production, inventory, and cost data of casting aluminum alloy were provided [23][24]. - **Trading Logic**: Supply has issues with actual sales, and demand is weak. The price is mainly affected by cost and aluminum price [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Be under pressure at high levels; Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1000 yuan, or when the spot - futures price difference is over 400 yuan; Options: Wait and see [26]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc fell 0.07% to $2699.5/ton, Shanghai zinc 2509 rose 0.25% to 22055 yuan/ton. Spot trading was mainly among traders [29]. - **Important Information**: A company's zinc concentrate production increased in the second quarter of 2025 [29]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is increasing, consumption is in the off - season, and the price may be pressured [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The price may fluctuate due to macro factors. Partially close profitable short positions and re - enter short at high prices; Arbitrage: Buy put options or sell call options; Options: Wait and see [30]. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead fell 1.15% to $1978/ton, Shanghai lead 2508 fell 0.06% to 16885 yuan/ton. Spot trading was poor [32][33]. - **Important Information**: There was an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese lead - acid batteries in the Middle East [33]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is difficult to increase, and consumption is improving [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Try long positions lightly due to cost support and consumption peak expectations; Arbitrage: Sell put options; Options: Wait and see [34]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel fell to $14990/ton, Shanghai nickel fell to 119640 yuan/ton. Spot premiums changed [36]. - **Important Information**: In May 2025, there was a global nickel supply surplus. There were concerns about US tariffs, and Philippine nickel exports to Indonesia were expected to increase [36][37]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is affected by tariff concerns, and the price is weak with cost support [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the given context. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel fell to 12680 yuan/ton, and spot prices were provided [38]. - **Important Information**: Stainless steel inventory decreased in Foshan, and Indian stainless steel consumption data was provided [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand imbalance leads to price pressure [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Sell on rebounds; Arbitrage: Wait and see [41]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures contract fell 0.91% to 8685 yuan/ton, and some spot prices rose [43]. - **Important Information**: The US launched 232 investigations on imported drones and polysilicon [43]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The overall supply in July may decrease, and the market may reach a balance. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [43]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Be bullish in the short - term; Arbitrage: Stop the profit of the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon; Options: None [44][45]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures contract rose 1.50% to 42945 yuan/ton, and spot prices increased [47]. - **Important Information**: There was a photovoltaic project component procurement bid [47]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Market rumors focus on "anti - involution" and cost - based sales. The price increase can be passed on to downstream, and the price is expected to be strong [47][48]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Be strong in the short - term; Arbitrage: Stop the profit of the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon; Options: Wait and see [49]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose to 66420 yuan/ton, and spot prices increased [52]. - **Important Information**: The Asian lithium market faces downward pressure, and there were news about lithium mine projects [53]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - side disturbances prevent deep price drops in the short - term, and the price may decline in the fourth quarter [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillate at high levels in the short - term, beware of policy risks; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [56].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, due to lower-than-usual southwest开工 and fewer furnace startups by large northwest manufacturers, the short - term supply - demand pattern has improved. However, after the futures price rebounded, traders faced difficulties in selling, and spot liquidity decreased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and short - sellers should pay attention to stop - losses or use options for protection. For polysilicon, in the short term, it is suitable to buy on dips. In the long - term, considering the expected policy introduction, polysilicon is suitable for long - term long - position layout [2][6][7] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On July 16, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price dropped slightly. The main contract 2509 opened at 8740 yuan/ton and closed at 8685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton (-0.91%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 379,848 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,215 lots, a decrease of 43 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly. The downstream's acceptance of the price decreased, and the market's inquiry and trading volume declined. The organic silicon DMC price remained stable, some enterprises' prices rose slightly, pre - sales were good, inventory pressure decreased, and market trading was active [1] Polysilicon - On July 16, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2508 continued to rise, opening at 42,360 yuan/ton and closing at 42,945 yuan/ton, a 1.50% increase from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 71,783 lots (69,821 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 449,860 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased slightly, while the silicon wafer inventory decreased. The weekly polysilicon production was 22,800 tons, a 5.00% decrease, and the silicon wafer production was 11.50 GW, a 3.37% decrease [3] Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - Silicon wafers: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.00 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.35 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R was 1.15 yuan/piece. Battery cells: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 was 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 was 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon210RN was 0.26 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W. Components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W [5] Strategies Industrial Silicon - Short - term: Wait and see [2] Polysilicon - Short - term: Buy on dips [7] Others - No strategies for inter - delivery, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [4][7] Factors to Monitor - Northwest and southwest resumption of production and new capacity commissioning; polysilicon enterprise operation changes; policy disturbances; macro and capital sentiment; organic silicon enterprise operation conditions; industry self - regulation's impact on upstream and downstream operation; futures listing's impact on the spot market; capital sentiment; policy disturbances [4][7]