1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "volatile", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride [1][2] 2. Core Views of the Report - On April 28, the US imposed sanctions on three vessels suspected of transporting refined oil to the Houthi armed forces, and large - scale power outages in Europe affected crude oil processing. With the approaching of the May Day holiday, oil price volatility is expected to be high [1] - In May, the reduction of East - West arbitrage arrivals will support the low - sulfur fuel oil market, and high - sulfur fuel oil is also supported by the expected improvement in Middle - East summer power generation demand, but low raw material procurement demand will still exert pressure [2] - In May, asphalt refinery production is expected to increase, and the northern market demand is gradually releasing, but the terminal project start - up rate is still low, and there is room for further improvement in demand [2] - Near the May Day holiday, the downstream polyester yarn sales have a phased increase, and the polyester start - up load remains high before the holiday. However, there are holiday expectations during the May Day holiday, and the PTA and ethylene glycol markets show different trends [2][3][4] - As of April 27, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased. The supply of rubber is advancing, and the downstream holiday days during the May Day holiday are more than last year, with a weak fundamental outlook [3][4] - In May, the supply of methanol is expected to increase, demand will remain stable, inventory will no longer decline, and the basis is expected to weaken [6] - In May, the demand for polyolefins is in the off - season, the downstream start - up slows down, the supply of the light - hydrocarbon route is affected by import tariffs, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [6] - The real - estate construction is entering the off - season, which affects the demand for PVC downstream products. The export may decline, and the PVC price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the basis weakening [7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the price of crude oil futures declined. The US sanctions and European power outages affected the market. With the approaching of the May Day holiday, investors are advised to pay attention to risks and hold light positions [1] - **Fuel Oil**: The prices of fuel oil futures rose on Monday. The low - sulfur market is supported by the reduction of arbitrage arrivals, and the high - sulfur market is affected by power generation demand and raw material procurement [2] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price rose on Monday. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is gradually releasing but still has room for improvement [2] - **Polyester**: The prices of polyester - related futures rose on Monday. The downstream sales had a phased increase, but there are holiday expectations during the May Day holiday, and the inventory and supply of different products vary [2][3][4] - **Rubber**: The prices of rubber - related futures showed different trends on Monday. The inventory in Qingdao decreased, but the downstream holiday days increased, with a weak fundamental outlook [3][4] - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol is expected to increase in May, demand will remain stable, inventory will no longer decline, and the basis is expected to weaken [6] - **Polyolefin**: The prices of polyolefin futures are in a volatile state. In May, the demand is in the off - season, the downstream start - up slows down, and the supply of the light - hydrocarbon route is affected by tariffs [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The PVC market prices in different regions showed small changes. The real - estate off - season affects downstream demand, and the export may decline, with prices expected to fluctuate at a low level [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on April 29, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and the latest basis rate's quantile in historical data [8] 3.3 Market News - Barclays Bank lowered its 2025 crude oil price forecast by $4 to $70 per barrel and set the 2026 forecast at $62 per barrel, citing trade tensions and OPEC+ production strategy adjustments [10] - The US Treasury Department raised the estimate of the net borrowing scale for the second quarter to $514 billion, higher than the February estimate, due to the failure to raise the federal debt ceiling [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1主力合约价格**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [12][14][16] - **4.2主力合约基差**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt, from 2021 - 2025 [24][26][30] - **4.3跨期合约价差**: The report provides the price difference charts between different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [37][39][43] - **4.4跨品种价差**: The report shows the price difference and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external market, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [55][57][59] - **4.5生产利润**: The report presents the cash - flow and production - profit charts of products like ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [64][66] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [69][70][71]

聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 品种 | 4月28日 | 涨跌 | 单位 | 品种 | 4月25日 | 涨跌 | 4月25日 | 涨跌幅 | 4月28日 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -1.01 | -1.5% | POY150/48价格 | 布伦特原油(6月) | 66.87 | 6395 | 6265 | 130 | 2.1% | 65.86 | 美元/桶 | -1.5% | WTI原油(6月) | 63.02 | -0.97 | FDY150/96价格 | 130 | 2.0% | 62.05 | 6580 | 6450 | | | -0.7% | DTY150/48价格 | 85 | CFR日本石脑 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: April 29, 2025 - Report Type: Polyolefin Daily Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Iran port incident caused supply disruptions. The import dependence of domestic polyethylene on Iranian sources is about 3.3% and decreasing annually. LDPE is more affected, with Iranian imports accounting for about 18% of total LDPE imports. The import interruption concern led to a significant increase in LDPE prices. However, the supply - side impact has weakened as the port resumed cargo import and export on the 27th. With high inventory and weakening demand peak season, it's difficult to support continuous upward movement of plastics. [4] - PP has a low import dependence and was less affected by this incident. Currently, upstream PP device maintenance is intensive, providing temporary support to the supply side. But downstream product exports are restricted and the peak season is fading, resulting in weakening demand and intensified supply - demand game, leading to narrow - range consolidation at low levels. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening | Closing | High | Low | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7063 | 7101 | 7122 | 7063 | 26 | 0.37% | 44163 | - 426 | | Plastic 2505 | 7348 | 7353 | 7383 | 7331 | - 14 | - 0.19% | 23834 | - 8998 | | Plastic 2509 | 7135 | 7164 | 7189 | 7133 | 16 | 0.22% | 482064 | - 10575 | | PP2601 | 7013 | 7054 | 7070 | 7013 | 19 | 0.27% | 16157 | 217 | | PP2505 | 7179 | 7195 | 7219 | 7178 | 3 | 0.04% | 19227 | - 4703 | | PP2509 | 7088 | 7112 | 7128 | 7085 | 10 | 0.14% | 397139 | - 9623 | [3] 3.2 Industry News - The inventory level of major producers today is 655,000 tons, a 5,000 - ton increase (0.77%) from the previous workday, compared to 710,000 tons in the same period last year. [5] - PP market prices fluctuated narrowly. The slight increase in PP futures boosted the sentiment of the spot market. Most producer factory prices remained stable, and the overall offers of traders changed little. Some low - stock grades tried to increase prices slightly, and downstream factories made low - price rigid - demand replenishments. The mainstream price of North China wire drawing was 7090 - 7320 yuan/ton, East China was 7200 - 7330 yuan/ton, and South China was 7200 - 7400 yuan/ton. [5] - Some PE market prices increased. In North China, individual linear prices fluctuated by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, some high - pressure prices increased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, and individual low - pressure prices fluctuated by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. In East China, some high - pressure prices increased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, linear prices fluctuated by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, and low - pressure prices fluctuated by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. In South China, some high - pressure prices increased by 20 - 150 yuan/ton, and low - pressure and linear prices fluctuated by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The LDPE market price continued to rise, and downstream buyers mainly made rigid - demand replenishments with actual transactions focusing on negotiation. The LLDPE price in North China was 7350 - 7650 yuan/ton, in East China was 7350 - 7950 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7550 - 7800 yuan/ton. [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply of polyolefins remains abundant, and the fundamentals are weak. In the medium to long term, the industry is in a capacity expansion cycle, and there is an expectation of a continued decline in the price center of crude oil on the cost side. Therefore, the strategy is to be bearish on rebounds. For L2509, the focus range is [7050 - 7250], and for PP2509, it is [7050 - 7200] this week and [7050 - 7170] next week. The short position of the L - PP09 spread should be held [3][4][5]. Summary Based on Directories This Week's Review PE - **Viewpoint Review**: The supply - demand situation is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with a volatile and weak trend. The new 208 - million - ton devices of Wanhua and others were put into production in the first quarter, and the 70 - million - ton Shandong New Era and 50 - million - ton ExxonMobil devices are planned to start in April. Although there is an expectation of supply reduction due to counter - sanctions, as demand gradually weakens, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the fundamentals is increasing. The L2509 was expected to be in the range of [7050 - 7250], and the short position of the L - PP09 spread should be held [3]. - **Viewpoint Review**: The L2509 fluctuated in the range of [7086 - 7220] this week, basically in line with expectations. The weekly output increased for 5 consecutive weeks, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.5%. The peak season of agricultural films is coming to an end, and the operating rate has declined for 4 consecutive weeks. The fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, and the market fluctuated weakly [3]. PP - **Viewpoint Review**: Attention should be paid to the changes in PDH devices, and the strategy is to be bearish on rebounds. Some devices are planned for maintenance and restart next week, and it is expected that the output will decrease slightly. Currently, the propane import gap has not significantly affected the PP end, and the PDH operating rate is basically the same as the same period in previous years. In terms of valuation, due to the double - weak situation of coal, the profits of oil - based and coal - based production are significantly higher than the same period last year, and there is still room to short the profits. In the short term, the operation of PDH devices is uncertain, so it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium to long term, multiple devices are planned to be put into production in the second quarter, and the medium - to - long - term pattern is weak. The PP2509 was expected to be in the range of [7050 - 7200] [5]. - **Viewpoint Review**: The PP2509 fluctuated in the range of [7056 - 7148] this week, basically in line with expectations. The supply - side output was 730,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons, and it has declined for 2 consecutive weeks. The cumulative year - on - year increase in output from January to the 17th week is 16.3%. The downstream operating rate has declined for 5 consecutive weeks, showing a situation of weak supply and demand, and the total commercial inventory has declined for 2 consecutive weeks [5]. Next Week's Outlook PE - The supply remains abundant, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of funds. The new 258 - million - ton devices of Wanhua, Exxon, etc. have been put into production since the beginning of the year, and the 70 - million - ton Shandong New Era and 50 - million - ton ExxonMobil devices are planned to start in the second quarter. The import volume decreased significantly in March, and the import margins of LL and LD are negative. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the pressure of inventory accumulation in the industry chain is increasing. The L2509 is expected to be in the range of [7050 - 7250]. Currently, the concentration of short positions in the 09 contract is relatively high. As the long holiday approaches, if a large number of short positions are closed for profit, the market may rebound periodically. The short position of the L - PP09 spread should be held [4]. PP - High maintenance cannot offset high production, and the strategy is to be bearish on rebounds. Multiple devices such as Ningbo Taishu and Ningxia Baofeng were shut down unexpectedly at the end of the week, and the maintenance losses will be postponed to next week. Although the supply pressure has been marginally relieved, according to data, the planned new maintenance volume before May is less than the device restart volume, and the 955,000 - ton new device of Exxon was put into production in late April. In the medium to long term, multiple devices are planned to be put into production in the second quarter, and the medium - to - long - term pattern is weak. The PP2509 is expected to be in the range of [7050 - 7170] [6]. PE - Related Data - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: The effective production capacity is increasing throughout the year. The production capacity utilization rate fluctuates between 76% - 87%. The monthly output, import volume, and export volume also show certain fluctuations. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of output and apparent consumption are positive, and the inventory at the end of the period shows a certain degree of change [7]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The PE main contract closing price, regional prices, and various costs and profits have changed. The PE output has increased slightly, and the downstream operating rate has decreased slightly. The inventory of enterprises, society, and traders has changed to varying degrees, and the position volume has increased significantly [8]. - **Production and Inventory**: This week's PE output is 640,000 tons, increasing for 5 consecutive weeks. The cumulative year - on - year increase in output from January to the 17th week is 16.5%. Next week, it is expected that the total output will be 658,700 tons, an increase of 16,200 tons compared with this week [18]. - **Import and Export**: From January to March, the cumulative PE import volume was 3.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. Currently, the import margins of LL and LD have turned negative, and the import pressure will gradually ease. It is expected that the total import volume of polyethylene in April and May will be about 1.01 million tons and 950,000 tons respectively [28]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate of PE is 40% (a week - on - week increase of 0.01 pct). The peak season of agricultural films is coming to an end, and the operating rate has declined for 4 consecutive weeks. The operating rate of the packaging industry is running at a low level [31][37][40]. - **Cost and Profit**: The profit is at a relatively high level compared with the same period [45]. - **Position Volume**: As of April 25th, the net short position of the L2509 main contract accounts for 63%. Attention should be paid to the capital dynamics of seats such as Guotai, Qiankun, and CITIC [50][51]. PP - Related Data - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: The effective production capacity is increasing throughout the year. The production capacity utilization rate fluctuates between 77% - 79%. The monthly output, import volume, and export volume also show certain fluctuations. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of output and apparent consumption are positive, and the inventory at the end of the period shows a certain degree of change. The 50 - million - ton fourth line of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical's production plan has been postponed to mid - June [52]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The PP main contract closing price, regional prices, and various costs and profits have changed. The output has decreased, and the production capacity utilization rate has decreased. The downstream operating rate has decreased slightly, and the total commercial inventory, enterprise inventory, and trader inventory have all decreased [53]. - **Supply**: This week's PP output is 730,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons, and it has declined for 2 consecutive weeks. The cumulative year - on - year increase in output from January to the 17th week is 16.3%. Due to the unexpected shutdown of multiple devices at the end of the week, the production capacity utilization rate of polypropylene is expected to continue to decline, and it is expected to run at around 74% next week [61]. - **Import and Export**: In March, PP turned into a net exporter again [69]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate has declined slightly for 3 consecutive weeks. The operating rate of the raffia is at a relatively high level compared with the same period. The profit of BOPP is relatively low, and the operating rate of PP non - woven fabrics is running smoothly [71][72][75][81]. - **Cost and Profit**: The profit is at a relatively high level [87]. - **Position Volume**: As of April 25th, the net short position of the PP2509 main contract accounts for 51%. Attention should be paid to the capital dynamics of seats such as Dongzheng, CITIC, and Guotai [106][107].

贵金属： 连续上涨后黄金步入调整。上周美国总统特朗普释放缓和信号，一方面表示尽管他对美联储 未能更快地降低利率感到沮丧，但他无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。另一方面称对华关税将 " 大幅下降 " 。周末有报道称，首个贸易协议即将达成，并且很可能会是与印度签署。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克上周 四在接受采访时表示，美联储 5 月已基本排除降息可能。但她同时释放关键信息称，若经济走向有了明 确证据， 6 月存在采取政策行动的空间。美国财长贝森特最新演讲阐述中美达成贸易协议的可能框架， 称需 2-3 年。此前，特朗普一再要求美联储降息，并研究能否免去鲍威尔的美联储主席职务，并引发市 场恐慌。而随着贸易战的扰动，引发一系列的连锁反应，金融市场动荡、衰退风险加剧、去美元化、美 国债务等问题愈发凸显，伴随政策和市场的不确定性，黄金价格持续刷新历史新高。考虑美国债务压力 进一步凸显，滞胀形式进一步明确下，黄金整体维持强势，但近期在贸易战没有进一步烈化、特朗普和 美联储态度软化、滞胀预期一定程度消化、多头较为拥挤下，黄金或面临调整压力。 集运指数： 上周五 EC 低开震荡， 06 合约收于 1365.1 点，下跌 2.92% 。盘后公布 ...

期货研究报告|聚烯烃周报 2025-04-27 埃克森美孚投产，新装置持续放量 研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 吴硕琮 020-83901158 wushuocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03119179 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03140168 投资咨询业务资格： 下游需求方面，聚烯烃下游开工率维持下行，地膜季节性旺季结束，五一假期前，终端 工厂订单维持刚需采购为主。 ■ 策略 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 惠州埃克森美孚一期 50 LLDPE 装置、48 万吨/年 PP 装置与 47.5 万吨/年 PP 装置成功投 产，预计未来新装置持续放量，PE 供应维持偏高，而 ...

首席点评： 原油反弹，黄金回落 特朗普称或将"大幅降低"对华关税，中国外交部：打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。中国外交部发言人郭 嘉昆强调，如果美方真的想通过对话谈判解决问题，就应该停止威胁讹诈，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础 上同中方对话。一边说要同中方达成协议，一边不断搞极限施压，这不是同中方打交道的正确方式，也 是行不通的。美国 4 月 Markit 综合 PMI 超预期下降创 16 个月新低，信心挫、价格涨，制造业 PMI 不 降反升好于预期。数据表明， 4 月美国商业活动增长降至 16 个月低点，对未来一年商业前景的预期也 下降至自疫情以来最低之一；商品和服务的销售价格上涨幅度为一年多来最大，尤其是制造品价格大幅 上涨，与关税有关。就业指数低迷。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、橡胶 原油 ： SC 夜盘回落 2.25% 。有消息援引哈萨克新任命的能源部长的话说，在决定石油产量水平时， 哈萨克斯坦将优先考虑国家利益，而非欧佩克及其减产同盟国的利益。他还表示，该国未能减少三大产 油项目的石油产量，因为这些项目为海外巨头控制。路透社援引三位熟悉欧佩克及其减产同盟国会谈的 消息人士的话说，一些成员国将建议该集团在 6 月份 ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 4 月 22 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员： ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of fluctuating oil prices and rising gold prices, emphasizing the need for measures to stabilize the economy and promote high-quality development in China [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Measures - The Chinese government is focusing on increasing counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize employment, foreign trade, and consumption, while enhancing domestic demand and improving quality [1][6]. - The government aims to support foreign investment and promote effective investment in various sectors, including services like elderly care and tourism [6]. Group 2: Oil Market - The SC night market saw a 0.33% increase in oil prices, with OPEC announcing further production cuts from several countries to compensate for previous overproduction [2][11]. - The new compensation plan requires seven countries to reduce daily production by 369,000 barrels from now until June 2026, with monthly reductions ranging from 196,000 to 520,000 barrels [2][11]. Group 3: Stock Market - The US stock market was closed, and the previous trading day saw a slight decline in stock indices, with a total trading volume of 0.95 trillion yuan [3][9]. - The financing balance decreased by 3.413 billion yuan to 1.798997 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious market sentiment amid ongoing US-China tariff negotiations [3][9]. Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market speculation and concerns over inflation, with the potential for the Federal Reserve to restart quantitative easing [4][19]. - The article highlights the increasing risks of recession and the challenges posed by US debt, contributing to the strong performance of gold [4][19]. Group 5: International Trade - The World Trade Organization reported that US tariff policies have severely worsened global trade prospects, predicting a 0.2% decline in global goods trade volume by 2025 [5]. - In North America, exports are expected to drop by 12.6% due to the current tariff situation [5]. Group 6: Agricultural Trade - China and Brazil are enhancing agricultural trade interactions in response to US tariffs, focusing on the export of Brazilian soybeans and beef [8].

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 4 月 17 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员： ...