周期行业"反内卷"投资机会 20250803 摘要 钢铁、水泥、煤炭等行业需进一步政策以改善竞争格局，当前政策力度 不足以使其价格见底回升。反内卷政策与上一轮供给侧改革相比，在量 化指标、法律手段和需求端刺激方面尚有不足。 水泥行业可通过补足产能、环保抓手（超低排放改造）、碳交易等措施 反内卷，可能使产能和产量下降 15%-20%，关键在于强有力的统筹执 行。 钢铁行业减产量执行情况需观察，当前盈利状况（毛利约 200 元/吨） 削弱减产动力，出口需求拉动增加不确定性。煤炭行业受能源局限制超 产文件影响，但盈利丰厚，反洗钱力度或受阻。 短期内，前期涨幅较大的钢铁和水泥性价比不高，玻璃和建材可能更具 性价比。快递行业提价有助于改善盈利预期，但需各品牌达成共识及区 域协调。 化工板块经历下行周期，但供给端出现积极变化，如资本开支下降和落 后产能退出。需求端尚未见强劲增长动力，投资重心应放在供给端变化 上。 Q&A 反内卷政策的初衷和目标是什么？ 反内卷政策的初衷主要有两个：一是鼓励创新，避免行业内过度竞争对创新的 不利影响；二是推动物价回升，特别是在 PPI 连续负增长超过 30 个月的背景下， 物价回升对于经济 ...

2025 年上半年，焦煤价格呈现持续下跌的趋势，主要原因可以归结为两个方 面。首先是焦煤自身的基本面问题。供应端压力较大，前四个月国内焦炭产量 累计同比增加 3.8%，而同期国产和进口焦煤总供给累计增速达到 4.2%。需求 增速略低于供给增速，使得整体供需关系偏宽松。尽管 6 月份国内供应下降和 5 月份进口明显收缩使得供应增速回落至 2%，但总体来说，上半年供应端高 位对市场形成了较大压力。 其次是动力煤高库存对市场的拖累作用。今年上半 年，无论是中游港口还是下游电厂，动力煤库存均处于高位，对整个碳元素市 场形成了压制，从而影响了焦煤价格。因此，上半年焦煤价格持续向下，并在 盘面跌至接近 700 元/吨时远低于现货端价格。 焦炭存在提涨预期，但能否落地取决于盘面走势。现货端矛盾不突出， 受盘面指引。若盘面回调，提涨难以实现。下半年铁水产量预计维持高 位，出口维持一定水平，钢材库存偏低。 下半年煤焦估值高于上半年，关注龙煤长协价格支撑。预计九月底前有 波动回调，然后进入向上过程；10 月、11 月因冬储或再出现一波上涨 节奏。四季度蒙煤长协价格预计上调。 焦煤在 6 月后的反弹原因是什么？ 从 2025 年 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The steel industry is experiencing a phase of "anti-involution," which shows improvement but relies on demand support and self-driven supply-demand turning points [1][3][5] - The copper market is facing supply disruptions, with a global supply decrease of over 100,000 tons in the first half of the year, leading to a weak supply-demand balance [10][17] Key Points and Arguments Steel Industry - The steel sector performed well in the first half of 2025 due to self-driven profit points, coking coal concessions, and policy expectations [1][5] - The second half of 2025 is expected to enter a phase of anti-involution execution and production cuts, leading to a new round of profit improvement [5][6] - Current macro conditions are similar to 2021, with a demand downturn and policy speculation, but the market has found a bottom, reducing reliance on policy support [1][6] - The average daily pig iron output has not significantly decreased, indicating that production cuts have not yet been effectively implemented [6] Copper Market - The 232 tariff policy has led to high copper inventories in the U.S., resulting in a proactive destocking cycle and weakening global demand [9] - Short-term copper prices are expected to fluctuate between $9,000 and $9,500, with a potential for a new upward cycle in 2026 if major economies experience liquidity easing [11][17] Aluminum Market - Significant increases in aluminum rod and electrolytic aluminum inventories, with weekly production nearing peak levels, may lead to price corrections, but prices are unlikely to fall below 20,000 RMB/ton [12] - High-dividend companies in the aluminum sector remain attractive for investment [12][18] Small Metals Market - Cobalt is entering a supply contraction and price increase phase, while rare earth materials are in short supply, leading to expected price increases [15][19] - Lithium carbonate and nickel are at cost support bottoms, requiring attention to supply-side changes for potential recovery [20] Other Important Insights - The current market environment is characterized as a "mid-game pause," with expectations for a turnaround in fundamentals in the second half of the year [5][7] - Investors are advised to focus on asset allocation opportunities, particularly during the economic bottoming process and under significant PPI pressure [7] - The overall sentiment in the gold market is cautious, with prices expected to remain in a range due to macroeconomic conditions [13][14] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the dynamics within the steel, copper, aluminum, and small metals markets, along with investment strategies and macroeconomic considerations.

Core Viewpoint - Ansteel Corporation (00347) has seen a stock increase of over 4%, currently trading at 2.29 HKD with a transaction volume of 24.02 million HKD, following the announcement of the global launch of its AG785 high-strength, high-toughness, high-pressure deep-sea container steel [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Ansteel Group announced the global debut of its AG785 steel, which is designed for deep-sea applications [1] - The new steel is categorized as 785MPa grade, indicating its high strength and durability for deep-sea environments [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - According to Tianfeng Securities, deep-sea materials are primarily divided into two categories: structural materials for pressure-resistant shells and buoyancy materials for submersibles [1] - The development of high-performance steel, alloy materials, and composite materials is crucial for deep-sea applications [1] - The 2025 government work report emphasizes the promotion of new technologies and products in emerging industries such as deep-sea technology, which is expected to experience rapid growth alongside commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy [1]

这也是磐石建龙开展智能化转型升级的缩影。据介绍，公司先是对厂区网络进行深度改造，支撑数据平 台实现约5000笔数据的秒级处理能力，然后通过对现场生产工艺和生产工序的改造，打造了一个全流程 的智能化工厂。目前，企业已实现发电、水系统、原料等工序的协同工作。 "在数据利用方面，现在我们已经由原来的事后分析向事前预测和事中管控转变。以设备预警系统为 例，设备还没有达到停机的状态，系统就会发出警示，提醒我们利用生产空余时间对设备进行干预，改 变了以往设备趴窝后再紧急抢修的被动状态。"辛宏波说，平台管理深入各个系统，正在帮助企业不断 提升精细化管理水平。 "我们积极推进大数据系统与智能制造应用，以'磐石建龙系统管理平台'建设为核心，目前已根据生产 需求自主开发包括智慧安全管控平台、生产监控预警系统、智慧质量管控平台、检修预测模型等在内的 各类系统150余项，实现26个岗位集中控制。"磐石建龙人事行政处处长孙飞说，数字赋能不仅大幅提升 了企业的生产效率和管理效率，还通过对相关数据的高效分析，为企业精准决策提供了科学依据。 集控大厅内，磐石建龙工程设备处应用开发室主任辛宏波告诉记者，右侧大屏显示的是40MW智慧发电 指挥平 ...

记者从珠海边检总站湛江边检站获悉，为保障航线的顺利首航，该站主动作为，加强与码头企业及 口岸联检单位沟通协作，精心制定"一船一策"勤务方案，研究细化登轮检查、船员查验、在港监管等工 作举措，确保该轮到港"零等待"、靠港"即装载"、离港"零延时"，以专业高效的通关保障，助力宝钢湛 江钢铁有限公司打通对泰钢材出口的物流通道。 今年以来，湛江边检站充分发挥移民管理职能作用，持续推进"优检快办"勤务落地，不断提高监管 效能和口岸通关便利化水平，全面营造安全有序、高效顺畅的出入境环境，为服务经济社会高质量发展 注入新动能。 8月3日，装载着8000吨钢材、钢板的巴拿马籍"顶鹤"轮从广东湛江港东海岛港区宝钢成品码头驶往 泰国林查班港，标志着宝钢湛江钢铁有限公司直航泰国新航线正式开通。 据悉，该航线采用国际班轮运作模式，固定航线运作，按期组织生产，缩短物流周期、提高周转效 率，提升出口产品交付服务水平。近年来，宝钢湛江钢铁有限公司依托湛江港"一带一路"重要战略支点 的区位优势，积极构建全球航运网络。此次泰国班轮航线的成功运营，将进一步密切宝钢与泰国及其周 边地区的经贸往来。 ...

◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 基本面弱稳运行，钢价震荡走弱 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 8 月 5 日） 观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢基本面延续季节性弱势，螺纹钢周产量环比微降，供应弱稳运行，但品种吨钢利润良 好，减产持续性不强。与此同时，螺纹钢需求再度走弱，高频指标环比下降，且位于近年来同期低 位，淡季特征未退，弱势需求易承压钢价。目前来看，供需双弱局面下螺纹基本面表现偏弱，钢价 承 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美联储官员 Daly 称今年可能需要降息两次以 上 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-08-05 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美联储官员 Daly 称今年可能需要降息两次以上 特朗普将大幅提高印度关税税率，二级制裁的威胁明显上升， 因此需要明显注意未来政策动向，美元继续震荡。 宏观策略（股指期货） 上半年中国服务贸易逆差同比减少大幅减少 综 8 月 4 日 A 股韧性超出市场预期，在周末谨慎情绪发酵后，仍能 逆势上涨，表明当前市场风险偏好仍高。题材股轮番表现，市 场依旧维持在高位易涨难跌的状态。 合 农产品（白糖） 晨 菲律宾开启大规模糖进口大门，提振泰国出口希望 报 巴基斯坦政府正式下令进口20万吨糖；菲律宾政府批准进口42.4 万吨糖。这在一定程度上印证了"目前全球尤其消费国库存偏 低，国际糖价低位将吸引逢低买需增加"的情况。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 199 家钢企完成超低排放改造公示 钢价震荡略有反弹，近期关于阅兵期间环保限产的传闻再起， 但仍需理性看待对实际产量的影响。近期成材需求仍季节性回 落，不过矛盾不算突出，预计市场震荡略有回调。 有色金属（铜） 淡 ...

申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 一、短期调整的背景是，市场轮涨补涨行情充分演绎，市场稳定性略有下降。7月政治局会议和中美新一轮谈判并非低于预期，只是未提供新的 突破线索。带领市场进一步突破的主线结构尚未确立，市场调整回归震荡市。在调整波段中，市场将会消化2025下半年经济增速预期回落 + 政策 重点仍偏向调结构的预期。 8月市场回归震荡市，9月3日阅兵前可能还有上涨波段。中期观点不变：时间是牛市的朋友，核心是时间是基本面改善和增量资金流入A股的朋 友。维持25Q4好于25Q3的判断，2026年会更好的判断。 我们对短期调整背景的理解：前期市场突破后，演绎高切低行情，虽然叠加了反内卷 + 雅鲁藏布江水电站工程，驱动周期修复，但本质上还是轮 涨补涨、寻找牛市主线的过程。但随着轮涨补涨行情演绎趋于充分，赚钱效应扩散至高位，短期市场稳定性略有下降。此时市场迫切需要重新聚 焦主线，暂时求而不得，引发了调整。 7月政治局会议和中美新一轮谈判的结果，低于资本市场部分过度乐观的预期，被视作触发调整的事件性催化。但在我们看来，7月政治局会议稳 增长相关内容，更多偏向于督 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp rise of coking coal 2601 futures today is due to multiple factors. If the strict implementation of over - production verification in coal mines continues to shrink supply and demand remains stable, the price of coking coal 2601 is expected to remain strong. However, if Mongolian coal imports increase significantly or steel mill hot metal production peaks and declines, the price increase will face pressure. Investors should pay close attention to fundamentals and policy dynamics and treat it with a bias towards more in a volatile market [3][4]. - Starting from August 8th, the taxation of interest income from treasury bonds and other securities is overall positive for A - shares, and in the short - term, it will mainly show high - level fluctuations [7]. - The significantly lower - than - expected July non - farm payrolls data, especially the large downward revision of May and June data, indicates that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it will show small - scale fluctuations in the short - term [11]. - In the context of stable demand and falling port inventories, the iron ore futures price rose slightly on Monday. However, the expected increase in supply restricts the upward trend, and the overall market shows a pattern of more - biased supply - demand game [15][16]. - In the short - term, domestic and foreign orders for glass are average, and the operating rate of downstream component enterprises remains low. With the slowdown of stocking, local transactions are weakening. Overall, local supply and demand have slightly improved, and the price shows an upward trend, but the increase should be treated with a bias towards more in a volatile market [19][20]. - The new US renewable fuel policy increases the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving Chicago soybean oil to a contract high. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it will help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak Malaysian palm oil exports may limit the upward momentum of the market [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Supply: Some coal mines in production areas have reduced output due to underground accidents, safety inspections, and environmental inspections. For example, the resumption of production in some coal mines in Lvliang, Shanxi is slow, and Mongolian coal imports are affected by port closures, leading to tightened supply [4]. - Demand: The steel industry has good profitability, with the comprehensive profitability rate of steel mills close to 60%, and the daily average hot metal output is at a high level, which strongly supports the demand for coking coal. The replenishment demand of coking enterprises and steel mills further drives up the price [4]. - Policy: The implementation of the new version of the Mineral Resources Law, the expected anti - involution work plan of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the price increase of coke by industry associations also drive up the price of coking coal [4]. A - shares - Policy impact: Starting from August 8th, the taxation of interest income from treasury bonds and other securities is overall positive for A - shares, and the short - term trend is high - level fluctuations [7]. Gold - Economic data impact: The significantly lower - than - expected July non - farm payrolls data, especially the large downward revision of May and June data, indicates that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it shows small - scale fluctuations in the short - term [11]. Iron Ore - Market situation: In the context of stable demand and falling port inventories, the iron ore futures price rose slightly on Monday. However, the expected increase in supply restricts the upward trend, and the overall market shows a pattern of more - biased supply - demand game [15][16]. Glass - Short - term situation: Domestic and foreign orders are average, and the operating rate of downstream component enterprises remains low. With the slowdown of stocking, local transactions are weakening. Overall, local supply and demand have slightly improved, and the price shows an upward trend, but the increase should be treated with a bias towards more in a volatile market [19][20]. Palm Oil - Positive factors: The new US renewable fuel policy increases the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving Chicago soybean oil to a contract high. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it will help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures [23]. - Negative factors: Weak Malaysian palm oil exports may limit the upward momentum of the market [23].