新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-02 现货报价再次上调，多晶硅盘面大幅上涨 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-09-01，工业硅期货价格维持震荡，主力合约2511开于8370元/吨，最后收于8495元/吨，较前一日结算变化（75） 元/吨，变化（0.89）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓285449手，2025-09-01仓单总数为50400手，较前一日变化-53 手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9000-9100（0）元/吨；421#硅在9300-9500 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8400-8500（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8400-8500（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价也暂稳。97硅价格同样持稳。。 SMM统计8月28日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计54.1万吨，较上周环比减少0.2万吨。其中社会普通仓库11.9万吨， 较上周增加0.2万吨，社会交割仓库42.2万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货部分），较上周环比减少0.4万吨。（不含内蒙、 甘肃等地）。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10500-11000（0）元/吨 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core Views Macro and Financial Futures - Domestic supportive policies are gradually taking effect. In September, policies to promote service consumption will be the focus, which will support the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods to some extent, but the actual effect remains to be seen. Policies in the real - estate sector are advancing, but their impact on the overall market may be limited. The profitability of industrial enterprises has not been fundamentally improved. Overseas, the US economy and employment have shown resilience, and key economic data next week should be closely monitored [2]. - The core issue of the RMB exchange rate is the timing and pace of appreciation. In the short - term, the RMB is likely to appreciate, and the market may reach a "triple - price integration" pattern around 7.10. In the medium - term, the RMB needs a clear downward trend of the US dollar index and substantial positive changes in the domestic economy to achieve a trend - strengthening [4][5]. - As the 9.3 parade approaches, the stock index is expected to have increased volatility. The stock market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, while the bond market may expand its rebound space if the stock market experiences a high - level adjustment after September 3 [7][8]. Commodities Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and strong in the short - term. The focus should be on US economic data this week, and the strategy is to buy on dips [12][15]. - Copper is expected to oscillate before the Fed's next interest - rate decision on September 19, with a mid - term strategy of low - level procurement [16][17]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, with a price range of 20,500 - 21,000. Alumina is expected to be weakly volatile, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish [20][21]. - Zinc is expected to be strongly oscillating at the bottom in the short - term [23][24]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices rose under the influence of the Indonesian riot and strike. The short - term trend remains to be seen, depending on the development of the situation in Indonesia [24][25]. - Tin is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term due to tight supply [26]. - The lithium carbonate market is in an adjustment phase. If downstream demand is released, prices may be supported; otherwise, it may remain weakly volatile [26][28]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to rise in an oscillatory manner. The rise of polysilicon is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a possible storage platform in September [29]. - Lead is expected to oscillate within a narrow range, with limited upside and downside [30]. Black Metals - Steel products continue to accumulate inventory beyond the seasonal norm. If demand does not improve, the downward space of the steel futures market depends on the tolerance of steel mills for profit shrinkage. Short - sellers can consider reducing positions to take profits [32][33]. - Iron ore prices have released risks. After the short - term risk release, short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. - Coking coal may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillatory pattern in the short - term. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade. Unilateral speculation on short - selling coking coal is not recommended for now [37]. - Silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to oscillate at the bottom. It is advisable to go long on the spread between the two when the spread reaches - 400 [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is currently oscillating weakly. In September, the demand decline is a definite negative factor, and the market needs to wait for key events to clarify the direction. The overall outlook is bearish [42][43]. - Propylene's spot market is strong, and the futures market is oscillating. The northern market is tighter than the southern market [44][45]. - PX - TA's market is mainly characterized by structural contradictions. The overall pattern is "tight at the top and loose at the bottom," and the processing fee of PTA01 is recommended to be compressed when it is above 350 [46][49]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate between 4330 - 4550, and it is advisable to go long on dips [53]. - PP's supply is increasing, and the demand situation is unclear. Its future trend depends on whether downstream demand can maintain high - speed growth [54][55]. - PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly. It is expected to oscillate for now [56][57]. - PVC's price has returned to the industrial fundamentals. With high inventory and weak demand, it is advisable to short - allocate it [58][59]. - Pure benzene is expected to be weakly oscillating, and for benzene - styrene, short - selling on the short - term single - side is not recommended. Wait for the end of the decline and then consider low - buying [60][61]. - Fuel oil has a weak rebound driven by cost, but the downward pressure remains. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows cost fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait for long - allocation opportunities [63][64]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate and strengthen, mainly following cost fluctuations. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance [65][66]. - Urea is in a stalemate. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Financial Futures Market Information - China's September 3 parade will last about 70 minutes. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization's Tianjin Summit has achieved eight results. There are various tariff - related news, including Trump's remarks on India's tariffs and possible US housing policies. There are also speculations about Fed officials' appointments [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1332, down 2 basis points, and the night - session was at 7.1375. The central parity rate was 7.1072, down 42 basis points. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August showed expansion [3]. Stock Index - The stock index rose with reduced volume yesterday. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed up 0.60%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 483.37 billion yuan. The futures of stock index also rose with reduced volume. The 9.3 parade is approaching, and key economic data have been released [7]. Bond - Bond futures opened low and closed high on Monday. The yields of medium - and long - term bonds declined. The funding situation was loose, and DR001 dropped to 1.31%. Relevant policies and the end of the summer travel season have been reported [8]. Container Shipping - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) opened high and then oscillated. Spot prices of some shipping companies have changed. The Houthi armed forces' remarks have affected the market sentiment. The current market is in the off - season, and the SCFIS European line index has continued to decline [10][11]. Commodities Metals Gold and Silver - On Monday, the precious metals market continued to be strong. COMEX gold closed up 0.84% at 3545.8 dollars per ounce, and silver closed up 2.46% at 41.725 dollars per ounce. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and fund positions are stable. Key US economic data and events this week should be monitored [12][15]. Copper - The Shanghai copper index was slightly bullish on Monday. Chile's copper production in July increased slightly. The collapse of a copper mine in July and the reduction of production guidance in August have affected the market. The key factors affecting copper prices are complex, with both bullish and bearish factors in the short - to - medium - term [16][17]. Aluminum and Related Products - The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy have changed. The macro - environment is favorable for aluminum prices. The fundamentals of alumina are weak, and the supply of cast aluminum alloy may be affected by tax policies [19][22]. Zinc - The zinc price opened high and closed low. The supply is in an oversupply state, and the demand is stable. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the trading strategy of selling the outer market and buying the inner market can be considered [23][24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The price of nickel rose, and stainless steel fell slightly. The spot prices of nickel - related products have changed. The market was affected by the Indonesian riot and strike, and the supply uncertainty has increased [24][25]. Tin - The Shanghai tin index slightly declined on Monday. Yunnan Tin's equipment maintenance and the decrease in refined tin production in August have affected the market. The short - term price may rise slightly due to tight supply [26]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fell on Monday. The prices of lithium - related products in the spot market have declined. The supply has no new news, and the demand has marginal improvement expectations, but the increase in warehouse receipts may suppress the short - term price [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon rose on Monday. The prices of related products in the spot market are stable. The rise of polysilicon is affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a storage platform [26][29]. Lead - The lead price oscillated narrowly. The supply side is weak, and the demand is in a "peak - season not prosperous" situation. The domestic inventory is oscillating, and the LME inventory is high [30]. Black Metals Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The production of Tangshan's blast furnaces has been affected by inspections, and most are expected to resume production on September 4. The steel market is in a state of over - seasonal inventory accumulation, and the demand has not shown significant seasonal strength [32][33]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore fell and then rebounded. The global iron ore shipment volume in late August increased. The market is worried about the insufficient demand in the peak season, and short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke declined. The prices of coking coal in some regions have decreased. The downstream's replenishment of raw materials has slowed down, and the supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade [36][37]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - The production and demand of silicon iron and silicon manganese have changed. The market was affected by the pre - parade steel mill restrictions and the decline of the "anti - involution" hype. The prices have fallen back, and the bottom support exists, but the upside is also under pressure [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The prices of US and Brent crude oil rose. There are news about the suspension of oil sales to an Indian refinery, the change in Shandong refineries' crude oil arrivals, and the expectation of OPEC+ to maintain production. The oil market is currently oscillating weakly, and the September demand decline is a negative factor [41][43]. Propylene - The futures prices of propylene rose slightly. The spot prices in different regions have changed. The supply and demand of propylene and its downstream products have changed. The spot market is tight, and the price is affected by multiple factors [44][45]. PTA - PX - The load of PX and PTA plants has changed. The supply of PX in September is expected to increase, and the PTA supply has decreased. The polyester demand has a marginal improvement, but the peak - season performance is not super - expected [46][48]. MEG - Bottle Chip - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports decreased. The supply and demand of ethylene glycol and related products have changed. The market is currently in a state of limited drive, and the price is expected to oscillate [50][53]. PP - The futures price of polypropylene decreased. The supply has increased, and the demand has shown a recovery trend. The inventory has decreased. The market is affected by new device production and the uncertainty of demand [54][55]. PE - The futures price of polyethylene decreased. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand has increased. The inventory has decreased. The current demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly [56][57]. PVC - The production of PVC in August and September is estimated. The demand is weak, and the export has changed. The inventory is accumulating, and the price has returned to the industrial fundamentals [58][59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures decreased. The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in ports has increased. The supply and demand of both have changed, and the prices are expected to be volatile [60][61]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil rebounded weakly. The supply and demand of fuel oil have changed. The export in August decreased, and the demand is mixed. The market is still under pressure [62][63]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The price of low - sulfur fuel oil is mainly following cost fluctuations. The supply and demand and inventory of low - sulfur fuel oil have changed. The valuation is low, and it is advisable to wait for long - allocation opportunities [64]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt rose. The supply and demand and inventory of asphalt have changed. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance, and it mainly follows cost fluctuations [65][66]. Urea - The futures price of urea is in a stalemate. The spot price is stable, and the demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67].

Core Viewpoint - The stock prices of silicon material companies have risen significantly, driven by a notable increase in polysilicon futures prices and market expectations regarding supply and demand adjustments [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - New Special Energy (01799) saw a rise of 7.48%, reaching HKD 7.76 [1] - GCL-Poly Energy (03800) increased by 5.47%, trading at HKD 1.35 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - On September 1, the main contract for polysilicon futures surged by 6%, closing at CNY 5,285 per ton [1] - Citic Futures attributes the price increase to three main factors: heightened attention on the elimination of outdated production capacity and potential industry restructuring plans, a significant rebound in polysilicon supply in August, and expectations of production and sales restrictions starting in September to alleviate supply-demand pressure [1] Group 3: Pricing Trends - Domestic leading polysilicon companies have raised their prices, with rod-shaped silicon mainstream prices increasing to CNY 55 per kilogram and granular silicon prices at CNY 49 per kilogram [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in the stock prices of silicon material companies, driven by a surge in polysilicon futures prices and market expectations regarding supply and demand dynamics [1] Group 2 - As of the report, New Special Energy (01799) saw a stock price increase of 7.48%, reaching 7.76 HKD, while GCL-Poly Energy (03800) rose by 5.47%, reaching 1.35 HKD [1] - On September 1, the main contract for polysilicon futures experienced a substantial rise of 6%, closing at 5285 RMB per ton [1] - According to CITIC Futures, the increase in polysilicon prices is attributed to three main factors: heightened market attention on the elimination of outdated production capacity and potential industry restructuring plans, a significant rebound in polysilicon supply in August leading to expectations of production and sales restrictions starting in September, and potential further price increases from leading companies [1] - Reports from SMM Photovoltaic News indicate that major domestic polysilicon companies have raised their prices, with rod silicon mainstream prices increasing to 55 RMB per kilogram and granular silicon prices rising to 49 RMB per kilogram [1]

Group 1 - The price of polysilicon has increased significantly, with mainstream prices for rod silicon rising to 55 yuan per kilogram and granular silicon at 49 yuan per kilogram, driven by industry self-discipline and market trading [1] - GCL-Poly Energy Holdings stated that it expects to return to profitability around late August to September while maintaining the price of granular silicon at over 40,000 yuan per ton [1] - If production cuts in the polysilicon sector are effectively implemented, September output is expected to remain stable month-on-month, alleviating supply pressure [1] Group 2 - Guangfa Securities anticipates that upcoming price elasticity catalysts may arise from enhanced environmental and energy consumption standards, leading to a rigid decline in production and increased price elasticity within the industry [2] - Historical supply-side reforms in the industry have shown that environmental production limits are effective in reducing output and enhancing prices, thereby reinforcing industry self-discipline [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a special energy-saving inspection notice for the polysilicon industry, which may provide a basis for future supply through energy consumption classification [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the significant increase in polysilicon futures prices on September 1, with the main contract PS2511 closing up by 6.03% and PS2510 contract up by 5.69% [1][2] - The trading volume for the main polysilicon contract reached 536,100 lots, with a transaction value of approximately 80.25 billion [2] - The price of polysilicon is expected to stabilize between 60,000 to 80,000 yuan per ton in the future, as industry inventory is anticipated to gradually decrease [4] Group 2 - GCL-Poly Energy, a major polysilicon producer, is in the process of finalizing its merger and acquisition plans, with expectations of clearer information emerging soon [3] - The company aims to manage its cash flow effectively by determining the capital expenditures associated with the merger and acquisition plans before deciding on any share repurchase [3] - The management anticipates that the company can return to profitability by the end of August to early September while maintaining the current price of granular silicon at over 40,000 yuan per ton [4]

一为多晶硅企业并购重组计划的最新进展。 9月1日，广期所多晶硅期货价格全线大涨。其中，主力合约PS2511收盘涨幅达6.03%，PS2510合约收盘涨幅也达到了5.69%。 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 张跌额 | 张跃帽� | 今开 | 最高 | 最低 | 昨得 | 成交量 | 成交额 | 买盘(外盘) | 英雄(内閣) | 持命重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I | psm | 多晶硅王连 | 62285 | 2975 | 6.03% | 49265 | 52420 | 48220 | 49310 | 53.61万 | 802.51亿 | 283779 | 252319 | 160409 | | 2 | ps2511 | 多晶硅2511 | 52285 | 2975 | 6.03% | 49265 | 52420 | 48220 | 49310 | 53.61万 | 802. 517. | 283779 | 252319 | 1 ...

多晶硅产业日报 2025-09-01 免责声明 价上调，多晶硅价格上行，但是需要注意，整体市场产量依旧未减少，同时下游光伏组件上涨价格不明显 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 ，预计整体难有突破机会，冲高后接近顶部可以尝试短空，操作建议，暂时观望，或者布局看跌期权 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 52285 | 2730 多晶硅11-12价差 | -2550 | -55 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 150409 | 5412 多晶硅-工业硅价差( ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Xinte Energy (01799) experienced a stock price increase of over 7%, reaching HKD 7.29, with a trading volume of HKD 50.52 million [1] - Xinte Energy reported a revenue of RMB 7.311 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 37.74%, while the net loss attributable to shareholders narrowed by 71.11% to RMB 256 million [1] - The company has implemented a reasonable multi-crystalline silicon production plan, focusing on quality improvement and cost reduction, while actively developing photovoltaic and wind power resources, as well as key equipment manufacturing [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that two coal-fired power projects in which the company holds stakes have become new profit contributors, enhancing operational resilience and risk resistance [1] - According to Guotai Junan Futures, short-term weekly production remains high, with some factories in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang resuming operations, while others in Xinjiang are reducing production [1] - The market is paying attention to supply-side changes due to "anti-involution" measures, particularly the expected production cuts starting in September [1]

| 分类 | 相关介绍 | | --- | --- | | 冶金级 | 一般是指用冶金法提纯后的多展硅，产品纯度在5N-6N（N代表百分数中有几个"9"冶金级即硅含量为99.999%-9 | | 务品硅 | 9.999%) 之间 主要应用包括航空、尖端技术、军事技术部门的特种材料以及建筑、纺织、汽车、机械等领域。 | | 太阳能 | | | 发客服 | 一般是指纯度在6N-9N（硅含量为99.9999%-99.9999999%）之间的多局硅，主要用于大阳能光伏电池的生产。 | | 信 | | | 电子级 | 纯度在9N（硅含量99.999999%）以上的多昂硅产品，是制造硅抛光片、太阳能电池及高纯硅制品的主要原料，应 | | 多晶硅 | 用于电力电子上的硅材料纯度要求更高,需要达到11NI以上。 | 多晶硅是单质硅的一种形态，由多个晶面取向不同的晶粒组成，具有金属光泽的灰黑色固体，是光伏产业和半导体工业的基础材料。多晶硅由工业硅提纯制 成，根据纯度可分为冶金级、太阳能级和电子级。 资料来源：公开资料、观研天下整理 从产量来看，2020-2024年，我国多晶硅产量呈高速增长势态,在2023年其产量同比增速更是高 ...