Group 1 - The US stock market showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.5%, while the Nasdaq initially increased before falling by 0.3%, and the S&P 500 remained stable [3] - The Golden Dragon Index, which reflects the performance of Chinese concept stocks, declined by 1.2% [3] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market performed well last week, with the Hang Seng Index gaining 1,012 points or 3.88%, closing at 27,140 points, while the Tech Index rose by 6.9% to close at 6,622 points [4] - Semiconductor company SMIC (00981.HK) was the best-performing constituent stock, rising nearly 25% over the week, with six other stocks also increasing by over 10%, including Kuaishou (01024.HK) up over 17% and Xinyi Solar (00968.HK) up 14.7% [4] - The worst-performing constituent stock was Pop Mart (09992.HK), which fell by over 4%, with its stock price down more than 25% from its peak [4] - Real estate-related stocks experienced adjustments, with China Resources Mixc (01209.HK) down 3.5%, Longfor (00960.HK) and R&F Properties (01109.HK) down nearly 2.4% and 1.8% respectively, while China Overseas (00688.HK) slightly outperformed peers with a 0.5% increase [4] - Zijin Mining's spin-off, Zijin Gold International (02259.HK), had a strong debut, being quickly included in the Hang Seng Composite Index, with its stock price closing at 120.6 HKD, nearly 90% higher than its IPO price [4] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Index remained above the 10-day moving average (26,600 points), indicating a stable trend, and as long as it stays above this level, the upward trend is expected to continue [5]

来源：环球网 【环球网财经综合报道】近期A股公司赴港上市热度攀升。据统计，9月以来25家A股公司公告筹划赴港 上市，医药生物企业表现活跃；截至10月2日，另有76家已向港交所递表等待聆讯。 东方IC MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 从融资规模来看，"A+H"两地上市模式的贡献愈发显著。今年以来，已有11家A股企业完成"A+H"上 市，合计募集资金 916.89 亿港元。其中，宁德时代、恒瑞医药、三花智控、海天味业、蓝思科技 5 家 企业的募资额分别达410.06亿港元、113.74亿港元、107.36亿港元、105.71亿港元、54.83亿港元，5家企 业募资合计占今年港股IPO总融资额的五成以上。 港交所行政总裁陈翊庭表示，今年截至8月底，港股融资总额达1345亿港元，较2024年同期增长近6倍， 其中"A+H"模式上半年集资额占同期总融资额的七成，充分体现沪深港市场联动活力。（陈十一） 从筹划企业看，科兴制药、新诺威、博瑞医药（维权）等医药公司均提及 "推进国际化战略、拓宽融资 渠道"；领益智造、海澜之家、极米科技等多领域企业也加入行列。递表企业覆盖医药、汽车、消费等 行业，如赛力斯已获证监会境外 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the covered markets are nearing their "bull case" target for June 2026, primarily due to valuation multiple expansion, but questions the sustainability of this trend without significant acceleration in global growth [1] Market Analysis - The analysis suggests that Asian and emerging market stock valuations are unlikely to sustain without a renewed acceleration in earnings growth, with optimism for a rebound in India's growth [1] - The report anticipates a potential further weakening of the US dollar, with the Bank of Japan having room for interest rate hikes, while the Federal Reserve is expected to implement significant rate cuts [1] Investment Strategy - Following increased holdings in China and South Korea this year, current portfolio risk is lower than in previous years, with "overweight" positions in Japan, Singapore, India, UAE, and Brazil, while "underweight" positions are taken in Indonesia and Saudi Arabia [1] - The industry strategy favors sectors including finance, domestic e-commerce/consumption, and industrials, while maintaining an "underweight" stance on energy and materials (excluding gold), and adopting a selective strategy in the information technology sector [1] Index Projections - Morgan Stanley maintains a "base case" target for the Hang Seng Index at 24,500 points by June 2026, corresponding to a forecasted P/E ratio of 10.6x; the "bull case" target is set at 28,000 points with a P/E ratio of 11.5x, while the "bear case" target is 18,300 points with a P/E ratio of 8.2x [1]

注2;银行、互联网平台等相关销售机构提供可场外投资的CIT联盟基金 港股今日全线走强，有色金属、半导体、电气设备、医药生物等板块涨幅居前。截至收盘，中证港股通 医药卫生综合指数上涨2.8%，恒生科技指数上涨2.2%，恒生港股通新经济指数上涨2.1%，中证港股通 互联网指数上涨1.9%，中证港股通消费主题指数上涨1.1%。 中信建投证券表示，进入9月以后，A股进入整理期，波动逐步放大，而内外部资金对于港股的关注度 正在提高；后续一段时间港股对A股的优势正在凸显，对港股整体行情看多。 | 港股消费ETF易方达 ( | | | 513070 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数 | | | | | 该指数由港股通范围内流动性 | 今日 | 该指数 | 该指数自2020年 | | 较好、市值较大的50只消费主 | 该指数涨跌 | 滚动市盈率 | 发布以来估值分位 | | 题股票组成,可选消费占比近 60% | 1.1% | 22.6倍 | 27.0% | 注1:"读摇数"用各上述基金产品具体调建的所数:数据采口Rind,指数法数幅线正2025年9月20日收盘,深圳市盈 ...

今日A股与港股市场同步收涨，科技成长板块与资源品形成双轮驱动，市场呈现"政策红利释放与产业 趋势共振"的鲜明特征。 A股三大指数月线均实现五连阳，创业板指本月涨超12%创三年多新高，科创50指数涨超11%创近四年 新高；港股恒生科技指数大涨2.24%刷新近四年高位，月涨幅达13.95%，反映资金在三季度末对科技主 线的坚定布局。两市成交额维持高位，A股成交2.2万亿元，港股成交3149亿港元，显示市场交投活跃， 资金风险偏好持续提升。 节后来看，随着节前避险资金回流，叠加"人工智能+"、高端制造等领域政策持续发力，市场风险偏好 有望进一步提升，科技成长风格仍将是资金主要配置方向。需关注四季度产业政策落地节奏与上市公司 三季报业绩预告，同时留意国际能源价格波动及美联储政策预期对市场情绪的潜在影响。 主要指数表现 A股市场成长风格延续强势，大小盘指数分化明显。上证指数全天震荡上行，收盘涨0.52%报3882.78 点；深证成指涨0.35%报13526.51点，创业板指平收3238.16点，科创50指数涨1.69%领涨主要指数，半 导体、锂电电解液等科技细分板块贡献主要涨幅。全市场上涨个股2657家，下跌2578家 ...

Demand and Price Trends - Total demand remains stable with no significant slowdown observed, indicating a gradual narrowing of economic fluctuations[2] - Industrial enterprise profits in August increased by 20.4% year-on-year, a significant rebound of 21.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking three consecutive months of profit growth[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year growth is expected to continue rising due to low base effects, supporting profit margins[4] Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - The manufacturing PMI for September is at 49.8, a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a broad-based economic recovery[6] - The service sector PMI stands at 50.1, down 0.4 percentage points but still within the expansion zone, reflecting overall stability in the service industry[7] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October is anticipated to provide investment guidance for related industries, particularly regarding the "14th Five-Year Plan"[11] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is expected to face headwinds this year, influenced by stock market gains, tax adjustments, and potential inflationary pressures[14] - Long-term bond yields have recently risen, with the 30-year bond yield reaching its highest level this year, indicating ongoing adjustments in the bond market[13] - The overall sentiment suggests that the bond market is still in a phase of adjustment, with upward risks to yields outweighing downward possibilities[14] U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. PCE inflation rate for August is reported at 2.7%, with core PCE at 2.9%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[16] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for September is at 52.0, down 1 percentage point, while the services PMI is at 52.9, reflecting resilience in the U.S. economy despite slight declines[18] - Market expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts have slightly decreased, with projections indicating two rate cuts in 2025, occurring in October and December[19]

港股晨报 2025 年 9 月 30 日 国证国际证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 周一，港股三大指数均表现强势，恒生指数涨 1.89%，国企指数涨 1.62%，恒 生科技指数涨 2.08%。大市成交金额 3090.96 亿元，主板总卖空金额 409.01 亿 元，占可卖空股票总成交额比率为 14.76%。南向资金流（北水）反转流出。港 股通净流出金额为 16.54 亿港元。港股通 10 大成交活跃股中，北水净买入最 多的是阿里巴巴 9988.HK、腾讯控股 700.HK、小米集团-W 1810.HK；净卖出最 多的是盈富基金 2800.HK、中国移动 941.HK、美团 3690.HK。北向资金方面， 9 月 30 日北向资金共成交 2946.18 亿元，占两市总成交额的 13.63%。紫金矿 业 601899.SH、中信证券 600030.SH、寒武纪 688256.SH 位列沪股通成交前三， 成交额分别为 31.38 亿、27.23 亿、23.41 亿；宁德时代 300750.SZ、东方财富 300059.SZ、阳光电源 300274.SZ 位列深股通成交前三，成交额分别为 37.86 亿、33.92 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant disparity in investment outcomes among investors who employed a systematic investment strategy in index funds, with over 60% of investors in the CSI 300 index experiencing losses, averaging an 8.7% decline, while a different group achieved a 12% annualized return [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Strategy Errors - Investors commonly made two critical mistakes: selecting the wrong assets and mismanaging investment timing [1][3]. - Many investors fell into the "chasing hot spots" trap, investing in high-volatility sectors like renewable energy and semiconductors, which led to substantial losses [3][4]. - For instance, a renewable energy index fund saw its net value drop from 2.5 yuan in September 2022 to 1.8 yuan in August 2025, resulting in an 11% loss for consistent investors [3][4]. Group 2: Comparison of Investment Outcomes - Broad-based index funds, such as the CSI 300, emerged as the "winners" in systematic investment strategies, yielding a 5.2% annualized return despite market downturns [4][10]. - In contrast, thematic funds averaged a -3.8% return during the same period, underscoring the importance of asset selection [4][10]. Group 3: Valuation Considerations - A common error among investors was neglecting valuation, leading to blind investments without considering price rationality [6][7]. - The CSI 300 index experienced significant valuation fluctuations, with its price-to-earnings ratio ranging from 12 to 15 during the investment period, affecting returns based on timing of investments [6][7]. - An investor who adjusted their investment based on valuation metrics achieved a 14% profit, while another who did not lost 5% [6][10]. Group 4: Recommendations for Improvement - To enhance investment outcomes, investors should prioritize selecting "evergreen" assets and avoid sectors with high cyclicality or rapid technological changes [4][12]. - Implementing a dynamic investment strategy based on valuation metrics can significantly reduce average costs and improve returns [7][10]. - Investors are advised to regularly assess their investment choices and adjust their strategies according to market conditions and asset valuations [12].

今天大盘低开高走，整体上涨。 截止到收盘，还在4.2星。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 大中小盘股都上涨。 创业板指数大幅上涨，收盘点数创下今年新高，距离高估也很接近。 证券指数也大幅上涨，目前到了正常偏高的估值。 港股比较强势，港股科技股上涨较多。 马上就是国庆+中秋假期了。 1. 也有朋友问，几类基金，最晚啥时候买，算是假期之前买入的？ （1）货币基金 9月29日周一下午15点之前，算假期前买入。 （2）债券基金 9月30日周二下午15点之前，算假期前买入。 债券基金，假期里也可以收获到债券的利息等收益。 只不过假期里，债基不会每天更新净值，会在假期回来后的第一个交易日，统一更新。 其实我们不会因为假期，就卖出手里的基金的。 这点在短债基金上比较明显。例如90天组合，一般在春节、国庆假期回来后第一个交易日晚上，会把假期的收益也一并更新。 不过90天投顾组合，本身对投资周期也有要求。最好是持有一段时间，例如1-3个月以上，毕竟债券基金短期里还是会有少量波动。 如果9月29日错过了货币基金，那可以考虑在9月30日下午3点之前，用短债基金来获得国庆假期的收益。 （3）股票基金 9月30日周二下午15点 ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong stocks strengthened today, with technology-related concepts such as semiconductors, integrated circuits, and chips leading the gains [1] - As of the market close, the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index rose by 2.3%, the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 2.1%, and the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect New Economy Index climbed by 1.9% [1] - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical and Health Comprehensive Index and the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index both rose by 1.8% [1] Group 2 - According to Wind data, as of last Friday, the net inflow for the E Fund Hang Seng Technology ETF (513010) exceeded 4 billion yuan in the past month, ranking first among similar ETFs [1] - The Hang Seng New Economy ETF tracks the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect New Economy Index, which consists of the 50 largest stocks in "new economy" sectors within the Stock Connect range [2] - The Hang Seng Technology ETF tracks the Hang Seng Technology Index, composed of the 30 largest stocks highly related to technology, with over 90% of the index comprising information technology and consumer discretionary sectors [2] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Medical ETF tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical and Health Comprehensive Index, which includes 50 highly liquid and large-cap stocks in the healthcare sector, accounting for over 90% of the index [2] - The Hang Seng Internet ETF tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index, consisting of stocks from 30 leading internet companies, primarily in information technology and consumer discretionary sectors [2] - The Hang Seng Consumer ETF tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, which includes 50 large-cap consumer stocks, with nearly 60% in consumer discretionary [3]