Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the stock market, particularly focusing on the impact of liquidity tightening and the potential for future market rallies, emphasizing the characteristics of bull markets in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. Market Performance - The overall market saw a slight decline, with the CSI All Share Index down by 0.28%, currently rated at 4.2 stars [1] - Large-cap stocks like the CSI 300 experienced minor gains, while small-cap stocks faced declines [2] - The previously overvalued CSI 2000 index saw a drop of 1.4% [3] - Value stocks demonstrated resilience against market downturns [4] - Indices related to undervalued sectors, such as Hong Kong and Shenzhen dividend and free cash flow indices, showed an increase [5] - Growth sectors, particularly the STAR Market, experienced more significant declines, with a correction of over 10% from their peak [6] Liquidity Concerns - Recent market volatility is attributed to concerns over the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in December, leading to short-term liquidity tightening [12] - This liquidity tightening has resulted in a simultaneous decline across various asset classes, including stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies [13] - Historical precedents for such liquidity crises were noted, with global stock indices experiencing an average pullback of approximately 3.9% from their highs [17] - The A-share market's decline was relatively modest at about 3.2% from its peak, with dividend-related stocks reaching historical highs last week [20] Future Liquidity and Market Outlook - The company anticipates that the Federal Reserve will eventually enter a phase of interest rate cuts, given the high interest burden on U.S. debt, which exceeds $1 trillion annually [23] - The timing of these cuts may vary, potentially being delayed by several months [23] - The article asserts that there will be future phases of market increases, particularly in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [24] Characteristics of Bull Markets - Bull markets in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are characterized by rapid increases rather than gradual rises, with significant gains occurring in short bursts [25] - Since September 2024, A-shares have risen by 40-50%, with most gains concentrated in the last two weeks of September and select days in August and September 2025 [26][27] - The fastest recorded increase in A-shares over the past decade occurred in late September 2024 [28] - The article emphasizes that substantial market gains typically occur in only about 7% of trading days, which contribute to the majority of returns [31] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to be patient and prepared for potential waiting periods between market rallies, as significant increases may be separated by months of sideways movement [34] - The article highlights that despite the overall positive performance of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, a significant portion of retail investors may still be at a loss due to poor timing in buying and selling [43] - The article concludes with a reminder that good investment returns come from a combination of quality assets, favorable pricing, and long-term holding strategies [46]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant portfolio adjustments made by Duan Yongping, known as "China's Buffett," in the third quarter, including a substantial increase in Berkshire Hathaway holdings, a new position in ASML, and a reduction in technology stocks like Nvidia and Alibaba [1][3][5]. Portfolio Adjustments - Duan Yongping's investment firm, H&H International Investment, reported a portfolio value of $14.7 billion at the end of Q3, up 28% from $11.5 billion at the end of Q2 [3]. - Berkshire Hathaway saw a more than 53% increase in holdings, raising its portfolio share to 17.78% [3][6]. - ASML was newly added to the portfolio, indicating a positive outlook on the semiconductor equipment sector [9]. Technology Stock Reductions - Significant reductions were made in technology stocks, with Nvidia holdings cut by 38% and Alibaba by over 25% [11][12]. - Apple remains the largest holding but was also slightly reduced, reflecting a cautious stance on its valuation [12][13]. Market Sentiment and Strategy - The adjustments reflect a cautious approach towards high-valuation tech stocks, with a shift towards investments with more certainty and value security [5]. - Duan Yongping expressed skepticism about AI investments, indicating a desire to remain involved without fully understanding the sector [11]. Comparison with Warren Buffett - Duan Yongping's actions align with those of Warren Buffett, who also reduced his Apple holdings, suggesting a shared cautious outlook on the tech giant [12][13]. - Both investors have emphasized the importance of long-term value investing, with Duan's recent moves supporting Berkshire Hathaway's strategy [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "sideways", and for government bond futures is "relatively strong" [1] Core Viewpoints - The A-share market oscillated and closed lower yesterday, with TMT performing well and coal and power equipment sectors correcting. The overall market is expected to be range - bound in the short term as the liquidity-driven market since June ended and the focus returns to fundamentals. Traditional economic sectors are in a slow recovery, and overseas tech stocks also face expectation divergence [1]. - Government bond futures closed higher yesterday. The central bank's actions and economic expectations have a positive impact on the bond market, but the "stock - bond seesaw" effect causes some disturbances. The bond market is expected to continue its oscillating pattern [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Research Views Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the A - share market closed down with Wind All - A dropping 0.93% and a trading volume of 1.95 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices all declined. New - quality productivity themes led by AI have optimistic growth expectations, especially in the upstream hardware manufacturing of the tech sector, but they lack catalysts and have entered a sideways trend since November. Traditional economic sectors are in a slow recovery and are unlikely to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term. Overseas tech stocks also face expectation divergence [1]. Government Bond Futures - Yesterday, government bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising. The central bank conducted 4075 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 37 billion yuan. DR001 rose 2BP to 1.53%, and DR007 remained flat at 1.52%. The central bank's actions strengthen the expectation of reasonable and sufficient funds, which is positive for the bond market. However, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect causes some disturbances, and the bond market is expected to oscillate [1][2] 2. Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - On November 18, 2025, IH dropped 0.39% to 2,997.6, IF dropped 0.58% to 4,555.0, IC dropped 0.89% to 7,079.8, and IM dropped 0.58% to 7,351.8 compared to November 17 [3]. Stock Indices - The SSE 50 dropped 0.30% to 3,003.0, the CSI 300 dropped 0.65% to 4,568.2, the CSI 500 dropped 1.17% to 7,151.0, and the CSI 1000 dropped 1.00% to 7,448.1 on November 18, 2025, compared to November 17 [3]. Government Bond Futures - On November 18, 2025, TS rose 0.01% to 102.49, TF rose 0.01% to 105.92, T rose 0.01% to 108.50, and TL rose 0.07% to 116.53 compared to November 17 [3] 3. Market News - As of the week ending October 18, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 232,000, and the number of continuing jobless claims was 1,957,000, up from 1,947,000 the previous week. The US Federal government shutdown led to a lack of regular weekly data [4]. - China's Foreign Ministry held consultations with Japan's officials. China sternly protested against Japanese Prime Minister Kaochi Sanae's wrong remarks on China, urging Japan to retract the remarks and stop causing trouble on China - related issues [4] 4. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their respective basis trends [6][7][9] Government Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the trends of government bond futures main contracts, bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and fund rates [13][14][19] Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [22][23][26]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) maintains a positive outlook on sectors related to AI, electrification, and finance, highlighting sustained demand and investment opportunities in these areas [1] AI Sector - CICC analysts predict that the high demand for overseas computing power will continue until the end of 2026, with tight capacity expected in the electricity and storage sectors during the same period [1] - The growth in overseas electricity consumption is driven by AI infrastructure and industrial chain restructuring, indicating a persistent narrative of electricity shortages that will benefit the power operation sector [1] Electrification - Electrification is expected to benefit from energy transition, infrastructure projects, and investments in data centers, contributing to the overall growth in the sector [1] Consumer Sector - CICC expresses a cautious stance on the consumer sector, forecasting a potential slowdown in consumption growth in the U.S. by 2026, while non-U.S. regions may see marginal recovery but remain slow overall [1] - In the context of ongoing fundamental differentiation, the report suggests focusing on sectors with reasonable valuations and positive potential catalysts, such as marginal changes in pharmaceuticals and automotive industries [1]

Group 1: Economic Performance - In the first ten months of 2023, Yunnan's new energy battery industry saw a significant increase in value added, growing by 76.7% year-on-year [1] - The overall industrial value added in Yunnan increased by 3.6% year-on-year, with mining, manufacturing, and electricity sectors growing by 8.4%, 3.9%, and 1.6% respectively [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Yunnan reached 1,059.77 billion yuan, marking a 3.5% year-on-year growth [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Yunnan decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, with the primary industry increasing by 5.6%, while the secondary and tertiary industries saw declines of 0.5% and 1.3% respectively [1] - The province is focusing on project planning, reserve, and attracting investment to stabilize real estate development and stimulate private investment [1] Group 3: Consumer Prices and Services - From January to October, the consumer price index (CPI) in Yunnan showed a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, while in October, it remained flat year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month [2] - The service sector in Yunnan achieved an operating income of 284.41 billion yuan from January to September, reflecting a 6.6% year-on-year growth [2] Group 4: Policy and Future Outlook - Yunnan's economic operation is generally stable, with ongoing efforts in transformation and upgrading, although there are concerns about weak effective demand and the need for structural adjustments [2] - The province aims to expand effective demand comprehensively and stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations through proactive macro policies [2]

Group 1 - The report defines core assets in the A-share market from four perspectives: industry leaders, resource endowment, excellent business models, and technological advantages [1][9] - The core asset fund pool has shown low volatility, with an annualized return of 13.14% from February 2, 2015, to November 7, 2025, outperforming the equity fund index by 3.31% [1][16] - The core asset fund pool has consistently achieved excess returns in most years, particularly in volatile and bear markets, but may lag in extreme style markets [1][18] Group 2 - The excess returns of the core asset fund pool primarily stem from industry allocation and stock selection, with a focus on large-cap quality investments [2][21] - The current long-term allocation emphasizes consumption, cyclical, and financial sectors, with a recent reduction in manufacturing and financial allocations [2][24] - The report provides a list of selected core asset funds, highlighting their performance and management details, with a focus on funds that have a high proportion of core assets in their top holdings [3][27] Group 3 - The core asset fund pool is defined by specific criteria, including a focus on actively managed equity funds with significant holdings in core assets [26] - The selection process for core asset funds emphasizes low beta exposure and high operating cash flow relative to market capitalization [27] - The report includes a detailed analysis of individual funds, showcasing their investment strategies and performance metrics [28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55]

Market Performance - The Japanese stock market continued its downward trend, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 1000 points, a decline of more than 2% [1] - As of the report, the Nikkei 225 index was down 1.77% [1] - The Tokyo Stock Exchange index also fell nearly 1.5%, currently reported at 3297.96 points [4] Individual Stocks - Major companies such as SoftBank Group saw a decline of over 5%, influenced by the drop in U.S. tech stocks [5] - Other companies like Tokyo Electron, Advantest, and Nintendo also experienced declines, alongside consumer stocks such as Shiseido and Ajinomoto [5] Economic Indicators - The Japanese yen weakened, with the euro surpassing the 180 yen mark, marking the first time since 1999 that the yen fell into this range [6] - Concerns over Japan's fiscal situation have led to increased selling pressure on the yen, compounded by the government's plans for economic measures exceeding the previously estimated 17 trillion yen [6] Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at approximately 0.5% for the sixth consecutive time, with discussions of potential rate hikes emerging [7] - Macroeconomic data revealed a 0.4% decrease in Japan's real GDP for Q3 2025, marking the first contraction in six quarters [8] Geopolitical Concerns - Rising tensions due to comments from Prime Minister Fumio Kishida regarding Japan's security policy have led to cancellations of bookings in Osaka, raising concerns about the economic impact [10] - Analysts predict that reduced tourism from China could lead to a decrease in Japan's GDP by approximately 0.36% [10] Nuclear Policy - There is significant domestic opposition to potential changes in Japan's "Three Non-Nuclear Principles," which could impact public sentiment and government policy [11]

央广网北京11月18日消息 据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》报道，高市早苗近日 发表的涉台错误言论罔顾法理和历史事实，一系列言行危害地区稳定、祸及日本自身。日本媒体指出， 高市是第一位将所谓"台湾有事"与"存亡危机事态"直接挂钩的日本领导人，武力介入台海局势的意图暴 露无遗。日本《社会新报》批评称，高市早苗的施政演说也充斥着鹰派政策，包括但不限于提前完成防 卫费增额目标、创建"国家情报局"、制定反间谍法、放宽武器出口规则。这只能被视为蓄意推高紧张局 势。高市首相的存在本身可能成为日本的存亡危机。 数据显示，中国是日本最大贸易伙伴，第二大出口对象国和最大进口来源国。据日本观光厅统计， 今年1月到9月，中国内地和香港赴日游客人数达931万人次，占赴日游客总人数的29.4%。2024年中国 游客在日本消费总额位列各国游客之首。 日本冲绳、长崎两县知事17日分别就日本首相高市早苗拟修改"无核三原则"的动向表示强烈反对， 强调推进核裁军是民众心愿，政府首脑必须尊重民意。 "无核三原则"指不拥有、不制造、不引进核武器。 高市早苗涉台错误言论的负面影响正在多个领域逐渐显现，尤其是经济领域。日本东京股市两大股 指 ...

Core Insights - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are China Telecom (00728) at 72.14%, COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) at 69.18%, and GCL-Poly Energy (01330) at 69.09% [1][2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810), Pop Mart (09992), and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398) saw the largest increases in holding amounts over the last five trading days, with increases of +34.20 billion, +12.67 billion, and +11.24 billion respectively [1][2] - The largest decreases in holding amounts were observed in the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) at -58.33 billion, Alibaba Group-W (09988) at -40.89 billion, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (02828) at -18.98 billion [1][3] Group 1: Top Holding Ratios - China Telecom (00728) has a holding ratio of 72.14% with 10.013 billion shares [2] - COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) has a holding ratio of 69.18% with 0.897 billion shares [2] - GCL-Poly Energy (01330) has a holding ratio of 69.09% with 0.279 billion shares [2] Group 2: Recent Increases in Holdings - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) increased by +34.20 billion with a change of +81.51 million shares [2] - Pop Mart (09992) increased by +12.67 billion with a change of +5.83 million shares [2] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398) increased by +11.24 billion with a change of +172.61 million shares [2] Group 3: Recent Decreases in Holdings - Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) decreased by -58.33 billion with a change of -219.93 million shares [3] - Alibaba Group-W (09988) decreased by -40.89 billion with a change of -26.39 million shares [3] - Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (02828) decreased by -18.98 billion with a change of -19.89 million shares [3]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘略微下跌，波动不大，还在4.1星。 沪深300等大盘股下跌稍多。 中小盘股略微上涨。 今年三季报，中小盘股的基本面也开始出现复苏， 像中证500等指数的盈利同比增长情况也比较好。 红利等价值风格、成长风格都是略微下跌。 港股略微下跌，波动跟A股差不多。 1. 最近大盘进入到横盘震荡的时间。 今年三季度，A股成长股大幅上涨，创业板创下最近10年最大单季度涨幅。 在9月底的时候，A股达到了4.1星。 随后两个月，A股在4.1-4.3星上下波动。 其实最近1年多，A股的上涨，主要就是两个阶段： 去年9月最后两周，以及今年三季度。 而且这些时间里也不是每天都有上涨。 真正大涨的时间，大约占全部交易时间的7%。 其他时间里多为阴跌或震荡。 但也就是这7%的时间，创造了绝大多数的回报。 当闪电劈下来的时候，我们要在场。 2. 不过另一个问题来了，我们怎么知道闪电会劈下来？ 这要回归到指数基金的收益公式上： 指数基金净值=估值*盈利+分红。 除了每年比较稳定的股息分红的回报（这部分会直接归入到基金净值中）， 从指数长期上涨的角度，驱动因素主要是两个： （1）估值提升 （2）上 ...