【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短期震荡 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力今日低开，走势震荡偏强。120 分钟布林带走缩口喇 叭，短期震荡信号，盘中压力关注布林带上轨附近，短线支撑关注布林带中轨附 近。成交量较昨日增 38.9 万手，持仓量较昨日减 24564 手；日内最高 1235，最 低 1192，收盘 1203，（较昨结算价）跌 8 元/吨，跌幅 0.66%。 2，现货市场：弱稳维持。企业装置大稳小动，南方碱业停车检修，江苏井 神恢复运行，综合供应微幅下移。下游企业采购积极性不佳，保持低价补库成交。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1250，基差 47 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 1 月 29 日，国内纯碱产量 78.31 万吨，环比增加 1.14 万 吨，涨幅 1.47%。其中，轻碱产量 36.20 万吨，环比增加 0.32 万吨；重碱产量 42.11 万吨，环比增加 0.82 万吨。综合产能利用率 84.19%，上周 86.42%，环比 下降 2.23%。其中氨碱产能利用率 88.99%，环比增加 1.30%；联产产能利用率 74.65%，环 ...

Group 1 - The core issue for Shandong Haihua is the overcapacity in the soda ash industry, leading to a supply-demand imbalance and price pressure [2] - The company is facing significant financial challenges, including an estimated asset impairment of 500 million to 650 million yuan and a projected net loss of 1.5 billion to 1.26 billion yuan for 2025 [2] - The overall performance of the soda ash sector is negatively impacting investor confidence, as the company's strategic adjustments are insufficient to address the short-term pressures from overcapacity [2] Group 2 - The market reaction has been severe, with Shandong Haihua hitting the daily limit down at 5.42 yuan, reflecting a decline of 9.97% and a total market capitalization of 4.851 billion yuan [1] - The stock's performance is also influenced by the broader market sentiment towards the soda ash concept sector, which is experiencing poor performance due to similar overcapacity issues [2] - Technical analysis suggests that the stock may break through critical support levels, potentially triggering further panic selling among investors [2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2026-2-2 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日熔量整体延续下滑趋势， 纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1160元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1204元/吨，基差为-44元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存154.42万吨，较前一周增加1.51%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向上；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面不改疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、远兴能源二期产线满产时间预期延后。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、近期企业产线面临恢复，且 ...

Group 1 - Oil prices experienced fluctuations, with WTI March contract closing at $65.21 per barrel, a monthly increase of 14.51%, and Brent March contract at $70.69 per barrel, up 14.64% [2][41] - The overall trend in January showed a decline followed by a rebound, driven by geopolitical factors [2][41] - Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran remain a significant concern, with any diplomatic breakthroughs appearing unlikely [3][4] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a surplus in the global oil market this year, with supply exceeding demand by 3.85 million barrels per day, approximately 4% of global demand [5] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has adjusted its forecast for 2026 demand growth down by 90,000 barrels to 1.14 million barrels per day [5] - US crude oil production has decreased to 13.7 million barrels per day, with expectations of further declines in the coming weeks [5] Group 3 - Extreme weather events have significantly impacted US oil production, causing a temporary 15% drop in output and leading to price volatility [4] - The market is sensitive to supply disruptions, with risk premiums of $3 to $8 per barrel due to potential interruptions [4] - Current US crude oil inventories stand at 838.753 million barrels, with commercial stocks at 423.754 million barrels, reflecting a 2.08% increase year-on-year [5] Group 4 - The supply of high-sulfur fuel oil from Iran is expected to decrease, with January shipments estimated at 900,000 tons, down 300,000 tons month-on-month [7] - Demand for high-sulfur fuel oil in China is anticipated to increase significantly, with expected imports of 100,000 tons in January and 105,000 tons in February [7] - The geopolitical situation in Iran continues to influence oil supply dynamics, with recent disruptions affecting shipping volumes [8] Group 5 - The overall sentiment in the oil market is mixed, with geopolitical uncertainties providing some support for prices while high inventories limit upward movement [6][8] - The market is expected to remain volatile, with short-term fluctuations driven by geopolitical developments and supply-demand dynamics [6][8]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black series is currently in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate within a range, and the trend opportunity is not clear. Attention should be paid to inventory changes around the Spring Festival, the recovery of plate demand, and marginal adjustments to "dual - carbon" policies [2] - In the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bulls are expected to continue. However, in the short term, factors such as the sharp adjustment of precious metals, the appointment of the new Fed chairman, and the "technical shutdown" of multiple US federal government departments may suppress the overall market atmosphere [8][14] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products a. Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3128 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (- 0.91%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 17283 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.7341 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 51270 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Shanghai was 3250 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3288 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.60%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 190323 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2655 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.5297 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 17466 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3290 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1] b. Strategy Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate within the bottom range. Domestically, the policy tone was relatively stable. Overseas, the market's dovish expectations declined, and commodity prices cooled down. The rebar output remained high, the apparent demand declined seasonally approaching the Spring Festival, and the inventory started to accumulate but the overall amplitude was controllable. The demand for hot - rolled coils was relatively stable, the output was moderately high, and the inventory continued to decline slightly [2] Iron Ore a. Market Information - Last Friday, the main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 791.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.88% (- 7.00). The position changed by - 14164 lots to 541200 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 894300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 52.04 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.17% [3] b. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly. The shipment volume from Australia increased month - on - month, and that from Brazil remained stable. The shipments of three major Australian mines increased, while that of Vale decreased slightly. The shipments from non - mainstream countries declined from a high level. The recent arrival volume continued to decline. In terms of demand, the average daily hot metal output was 227.98 tons, a month - on - month slight decline. Some blast furnaces in certain regions were undergoing annual inspections, and the复产 of blast furnaces was mainly due to the end of maintenance. The profitability rate of steel mills declined slightly. In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to accumulate, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past five years, which put pressure on the absolute price. The inventory of imported ore in steel mills continued to rise, and steel mills continued to replenish their stocks before the festival. In general, the overseas supply was entering the off - season, the supply pressure was gradually alleviating, the structural inventory problem was not resolved, and the pre - festival procurement by steel mills after price decline provided some support. The short - term iron ore price was expected to fluctuate mainly [4] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon a. Market Information - On January 30th, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed down 0.91% at 5872 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5780 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5970 yuan/ton on the futures market, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 98 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 1.32% at 5660 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 140 yuan/ton over the futures [7] - Last week, the prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon continued to fluctuate. The weekly weighted index of manganese silicon increased by 22 yuan/ton or + 0.38%, and that of ferrosilicon increased by 10 yuan/ton or + 0.18%. Technically, there was no obvious trend for both [7] b. Strategy Viewpoints - The recent sharp fluctuations in the commodity market were triggered by the appointment of the new Fed chairman, which led to expectations of a marginal tightening of the denominator. The previous strong - performing lithium carbonate also declined significantly, suppressing the overall commodity sentiment. However, the black sector was supported by the relaxation of the "three red lines" in the real estate industry and the successful extension of Vanke's debt. In the long - term, the commodity bulls were expected to continue. In the short - term, factors such as the adjustment of precious metals, the appointment of the Fed chairman, and the "technical shutdown" of US federal government departments might suppress the market atmosphere. For manganese silicon, the supply - demand pattern was not ideal, but most of these factors were already reflected in the price. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand structure was basically balanced and was gradually improving. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon would be affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - push factors for manganese silicon and supply - contraction factors for ferrosilicon [8][9] Coking Coal and Coke a. Market Information - On January 30th, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 0.82% at 1155.5 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of low - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1584.8 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the equivalent price on the futures market was 1395 yuan/ton, with a premium of 239.5 yuan/ton over the futures. The price of medium - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the equivalent price on the futures market was 1284 yuan/ton, with a premium of 128.5 yuan/ton over the futures. The price of Mongolian 5 clean coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1234 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the equivalent price on the futures market was 1209 yuan/ton, with a premium of 53.5 yuan/ton over the futures [11] - The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 0.09% at 1721.5 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the equivalent price on the futures market was 1725.5 yuan/ton, with a premium of 4 yuan/ton over the futures. The price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1495 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the equivalent price on the futures market was 1710.5 yuan/ton, with a discount of 11 yuan/ton to the futures [11][12] - Last week, the coking coal price continued to fluctuate widely, with a weekly increase of 0.5 yuan/ton or + 0.04%. The coke price continued to fluctuate, with a weekly decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton or - 0.03% [12] b. Strategy Viewpoints - Similar to the overall market situation, the sharp fluctuations in the commodity market affected coking coal and coke. The black sector had short - term emotional support. In the long - term, the commodity bulls were expected to continue, but in the short - term, market sentiment was suppressed. In terms of supply - demand, the supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke was gradually becoming looser. Although the downstream was still replenishing stocks, the inventory of coking coal in coking plants was approaching the level of the same period last year, and the willingness of downstream steel mills to replenish stocks was significantly weak. The short - term stock - replenishment was not expected to drive up prices strongly. However, the firm Australian coal prices and the US power shortage might have a positive impact on sentiment. In the context of global resource management, the "scarcity" premium of coking coal might be enhanced, providing some support for valuation. Overall, the short - term prices of coking coal and coke were expected to continue to fluctuate [13][14] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon a. Market Information - Industrial silicon: Last Friday, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8850 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.84% (- 75). The weighted contract position changed by - 13784 lots to 353139 lots. In the spot market, the price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 350 yuan/ton for the main contract. The price of 421 industrial silicon was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the basis for the main contract was 0 yuan/ton after conversion [16] - Polysilicon: Last Friday, the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 47140 yuan/ton, with a change of - 4.45% (- 2195). The weighted contract position changed by - 710 lots to 76114 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 49 yuan/kg, down 0.5 yuan/kg from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 50.5 yuan/kg, down 1 yuan/kg from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 51.3 yuan/kg, down 1.2 yuan/kg from the previous day, with a basis of 4160 yuan/ton for the main contract [19] b. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: It showed a pattern of rising in the afternoon and then falling last Friday. In terms of supply, Sichuan's production enterprises maintained the furnace - shutdown state, and enterprises in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia reduced production, with the weekly output continuing to decline. In terms of demand, a leading polysilicon enterprise shut down completely, and some other enterprises reduced production. The demand for industrial silicon was generally weak. In February, the production - reduction plan of a large factory in Xinjiang entered the implementation period. If the plan was implemented as rumored, the supply - demand balance sheet in February was expected to improve, and the sustainability depended on the shutdown duration. Overall, there was an expectation of improved supply - demand in the short - term, and the supply contraction provided strong support for the price. However, considering the approaching Spring Festival and the weakening downstream, the price was expected to fluctuate mainly [17][18] - Polysilicon: In the spot market, the price negotiation was intense, and the market information was chaotic. The downstream's acceptance of high prices was low, and some enterprises tried to lower the prices. The actual transaction prices declined. The silicon wafer segment was also under pressure, and the price of silicon materials weakened, which reduced the cost support. The terminal component prices continued to rise, and the battery segment's price continued to rise due to non - silicon costs and overseas demand. The supply - demand pattern was expected to improve in the first quarter as a leading enterprise shut down and some other enterprises reduced production. Policy expectations were expected to provide support for prices. The futures position and liquidity of polysilicon had fallen to a relatively low level since listing, and the futures price was expected to be under pressure due to the weakening spot prices. Attention should be paid to the feedback of terminal demand and possible new policy adjustments [20] Glass and Soda Ash a. Market Information - Glass: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1087 yuan/ton, up 1.87% (+ 20) from the previous day. The price of large - size glass in North China was 1020 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day, and that in Central China was 1090 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On January 30th, the weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million cases, a month - on - month decrease of 651,800 cases (- 1.22%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 8027 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 69570 lots [22] - Soda ash: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1224 yuan/ton, up 2.17% (+ 26) from the previous day. The price of heavy - soda ash in Shahe was 1184 yuan, up 26 yuan from the previous day. On January 30th, the weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.5442 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,000 tons (+ 1.22%), including 716,100 tons of heavy - soda ash inventory, a month - on - month increase of 19,400 tons, and 828,100 tons of light - soda ash inventory, a month - on - month increase of 3600 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 11413 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 8239 lots [24] b. Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: As the Spring Festival approached, the downstream processing plants were approaching the end of work, the market demand was weakening, the trading activity was decreasing, and the procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The inventory - building was almost completed. In terms of supply, a production line was restarted and ignited recently, and there was no cold - repair plan, so the overall production capacity remained stable. The demand was limited due to the Spring Festival seasonality. Overall, the market lacked strong driving factors, the wait - and - see sentiment was strong, and manufacturers were not willing to adjust prices. Most of them aimed to maintain stable prices, promote sales, and reduce inventory. The float - glass market was expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 1025 - 1125 yuan/ton [23] - Soda ash: The supply in the industry remained loose. The short - stopped devices such as Jiangsu Huachang had resumed operation, and the new production capacity was gradually being released, with the supply continuing to show an increasing trend. The demand side remained weak, with downstream enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases. Only a few enterprises made appropriate inventory - building before the festival, and the overall wait - and - see sentiment was strong, with limited order growth. Overall, the current supply - demand structure of the soda - ash market was relatively loose, downstream purchasing was cautious, and the price lacked upward - driving force. The market was expected to continue to fluctuate weakly and steadily in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 1160 - 1250 yuan/ton [25]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market shows signs of weakness, with fluctuations in prices and inventory levels, while external factors may influence future trends [5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the main contract for soda ash futures closed at 1204 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline in the K-line and an increase in open interest by 27,604 contracts [1]. - During the week of January 26-30, the soda ash futures opened at 1197 CNY/ton, peaked at 1229 CNY/ton, and dipped to a low of 1178 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly change of 1.35% [1]. Group 2: Inventory and Production - As of January 29, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers reached 1.5442 million tons, an increase of 3,200 tons or 0.21% from the previous Monday [2]. - On January 30, the Jinfu Yuan soda ash facility in Hunan resumed operations, with light-grade soda ash priced at 1200 CNY/ton ex-factory; the Kunshan Jinguang facility in Jiangsu reduced its load, pricing light-grade at 1280 CNY/ton, while heavy-grade was not quoted; the Jingshen Chemical facility in Jiangsu reduced output due to maintenance, maintaining a stable price of 1270 CNY/ton for light-grade [2]. Group 3: Sales and Demand - For the week of January 29, 2026, soda ash shipments from Chinese enterprises totaled 760,100 tons, reflecting a decrease of 7.94% week-on-week, with an overall shipment rate of 97.06% [3]. Group 4: Institutional Insights - According to Everbright Futures, the soda ash fundamentals remain weak, with macroeconomic and commodity market sentiment providing some support for futures prices; however, there is no sustained upward momentum expected, and pre-holiday inventory accumulation is anticipated to exert pressure on prices [5]. - Zhengxin Futures noted that while short-term improvements in commodity sentiment and pre-holiday inventory expectations led to a rebound in soda ash prices, overall downstream inventory remains high, and upward pressure from upstream during the holiday may limit sustained market drivers; a cautious approach is recommended [5].

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Haihua (000822.SZ) expects a significant net loss for 2025, projecting a loss of between 1.5 billion to 1.26 billion yuan, compared to a profit of 39.2167 million yuan in the same period last year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of between -1.5 billion to -1.26 billion yuan for 2025 [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between -1.59 billion to -1.35 billion yuan [1] - In the previous year, the net profit was 39.2167 million yuan [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The expected losses are attributed to industry capacity expansion and a decline in downstream demand [1] - The company's main product, soda ash, is experiencing an oversupply situation, leading to a significant decrease in selling prices compared to the same period last year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongyan Chemical's 2025 annual performance forecast indicates a net profit of approximately 75.2 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of about 85%, yet the company remains profitable amidst a challenging soda ash industry, showcasing strong resilience and risk management capabilities [2] Group 1: Performance and Industry Context - The decline in net profit is primarily attributed to significant decreases in soda ash prices due to changes in supply and demand dynamics, leading to a substantial squeeze on gross margins [2] - In December 2025, soda ash prices fell below 1,100 yuan per ton, marking a new low for the year and indicating severe losses within the industry, with an average capacity utilization rate of only 73.4% [2][3] - Many companies in the soda ash sector are reducing production loads to manage losses, with some considering shutting down production lines due to high costs and difficulties in turning profits [2][3] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - Zhongyan Chemical is not slowing down its industrial layout; instead, it is enhancing its core business through capacity upgrades to solidify its leading position in the industry [4] - The company plans to invest approximately 83.97 million yuan in expanding its sodium metal production capacity, aiming to maintain over 30% of global sodium metal production capacity [4] - The company has obtained mining rights for natural soda in Inner Mongolia and is advancing a project to produce 5 million tons of natural soda annually, which aligns with national strategies for carbon reduction and industry optimization [5] - The natural soda production method is expected to provide significant advantages in terms of energy consumption, cost, and environmental impact, further enhancing the company's competitive position in the soda ash market [5]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Haihua is forecasting a significant decline in net profit for the year 2025, with estimates indicating a loss between 1.26 billion to 1.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of approximately 3,314.87% to 3,929.19% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company to be between -1.26 billion yuan and -1.5 billion yuan for 2025 [1] - The projected net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is estimated to be between -1.35 billion yuan and -1.59 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Reasons for Performance Change - The primary reason for the performance decline is the impact of the main business, where industry capacity expansion and a decrease in downstream demand have led to an oversupply of the main product, soda ash, resulting in a significant drop in selling prices compared to the previous year [1] - The company plans to recognize an asset impairment provision of 500 million to 650 million yuan due to preliminary impairment tests on fixed assets that showed signs of impairment as of December 31, 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company Shandong Haihua expects a net loss of between 1.26 billion to 1.5 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025 due to industry capacity expansion and a decline in downstream demand, leading to an oversupply of its main product, soda ash, and a significant drop in selling prices compared to the previous year [1] Group 1 - The company anticipates a negative net profit for the year 2025 [1] - The expected loss ranges from 1.26 billion to 1.5 billion yuan [1] - The decline in demand is attributed to industry capacity expansion [1] Group 2 - The main product, soda ash, is experiencing an oversupply situation [1] - There has been a significant decrease in selling prices compared to the same period last year [1]