Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Polyolefins - The polyolefin market is under pressure, with a divergence in the fundamentals of PP and PE. PP shows a dual increase in supply and demand, but there is a slight inventory build - up this week under the pressure of new production capacity. PE has weak supply and demand, and although there is inventory reduction this week, port inventory remains high. The cost side is mixed, with high inventory and cost support in a continuous game [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the overall supply - demand pattern is still bearish. Short - term observation is recommended, and opportunities to short on rebounds can be awaited later. For glass, short - term there is still some rigid demand support, but in the long - term, there are concerns about the sustainability of demand, and the price is expected to be under pressure [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and the overall trend is bearish. The PVC market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to continue the weak trend at the bottom [5]. Methanol - The port methanol market is under significant pressure, and the current market trades on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventory. Before the gas restriction in Iran, the weak reality will continue to be traded [8]. Natural Rubber - The supply in overseas production areas is expected to be strong during the peak season, and the domestic production is gradually decreasing. The demand is weakening in some northern regions. The market sentiment has improved, and subsequent attention should be paid to the raw material output in the main production areas and macro - level changes [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene is generally loose, and the price driver is weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds following the oil price. The supply - demand of styrene may remain in a tight balance, but the price driver is insufficient. EB12 can be shorted on rebounds [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the short - term is expected to fluctuate in the range of 6200 - 6800. For PTA, the short - term is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4300 - 4800. For ethylene glycol, the price is under pressure. For short - fiber, the rebound space is limited. For bottle - chips, the supply - demand is in a loose pattern [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 and L2605, PP2601 and PP2605 have different price changes. The spreads between different contracts and the basis also show various trends. Spot prices of different varieties in different regions also have corresponding changes [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP have different changes in enterprise inventory, social inventory, and trade - related inventory. The start - up rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries also vary [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash have different price changes in different regions, and the basis and spreads between different contracts also change [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Soda ash production remains at a high level, and the inventory is transferred to the middle and lower reaches. Glass production has changes in production lines, and the demand has short - term and long - term differences [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different forms and regions have corresponding changes, and the basis and spreads between different contracts also vary [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda supply is increasing, and the demand support is weak. The PVC supply is under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season [5]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices in different regions have changes, and the basis and regional spreads also vary [6]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increase. The start - up rates of upstream and downstream industries also have corresponding changes [7][8]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of natural rubber in different varieties and regions have changes, and the basis, month - to - month spreads also vary [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production in different countries has changes, and the start - up rates of tire industries and the import and export volumes also vary [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in different forms and regions have changes, and the basis, spreads between different contracts, and import profits also vary [12]. - **Inventory and开工率**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in ports change, and the start - up rates of different industries in the industrial chain also vary [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials, PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream polyester products have changes, and the basis, spreads between different contracts, and processing fees also vary [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand of different products in the polyester industry chain have corresponding changes, and the start - up rates of different industries also vary [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating [2] - Ferromanganese: Oscillating strongly [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating strongly [4] 2. Core Views - Glass has large supply - demand contradictions, high inventory, and weak long - term demand due to the approaching end of the consumption peak season and the downturn in the real estate industry [1] - Soda ash has supply - demand contradictions, with downstream rigid demand having resilience, but high inventory suppresses prices and de - stocking pressure persists throughout the year [1] - Ferromanganese enterprises are in continuous losses, with high production and inventory. Its price is expected to resonate with the black series and maintain a wide - range low - level oscillation [3] - Ferrosilicon has high production and inventory, weakening demand, and large inventory pressure. Although costs are rising, prices are still suppressed [3] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass - Market Analysis: The glass futures market oscillated downward yesterday, with a significant increase in trading volume and open interest. Spot prices were stable with a slight increase, and downstream buyers mainly made purchases as needed [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Supply - demand contradictions are large, inventory is high, and long - term demand is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to changes in glass production lines [1] - Strategy: Oscillating weakly [2] Soda Ash - Market Analysis: The soda ash futures market oscillated upward yesterday. Downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment and mainly made low - price rigid - demand purchases [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Supply - demand contradictions remain. Downstream rigid demand has resilience, but high inventory suppresses prices. Attention should be paid to supply and cost changes [1] - Strategy: Oscillating [2] Ferromanganese - Market Analysis: The ferromanganese futures main contract rose slightly yesterday. At the beginning of the week, the ferromanganese market had strong wait - and - see sentiment, waiting for new steel procurement guidelines. The price in the northern market was 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5580 - 5620 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Ferromanganese enterprises are in continuous losses, but production remains at a medium - high level, and enterprise inventory has reached a five - year high. The price is expected to resonate with the black series and maintain a wide - range low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to manganese ore cost support and regional policies [3] - Strategy: Oscillating strongly [4] Ferrosilicon - Market Analysis: The ferrosilicon futures main contract rose slightly yesterday. The ferrosilicon market had little fluctuation, and the market mainly focused on order fulfillment. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade ferrosilicon was priced at 5700 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Ferrosilicon has high production and inventory, weakening demand, and large inventory pressure. Although costs are rising, prices are still suppressed. Attention should be paid to cost changes in coal and electricity prices and regional policies [3] - Strategy: Oscillating strongly [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory. The supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved. Short - term, it is expected to move in a range [2][5]. - The downstream glass supply has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, increasing the demand for soda ash. However, since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production is at a historical high, and the demand from the photovoltaic glass downstream has weakened [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant production is at a high level, and the second - phase of Yuanxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year. The overall supply is expected to be abundant. There are supply disturbances in downstream float glass, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high level, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,170 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,226 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 56 yuan. The futures price is at a premium to the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash inventory in plants is 1.7142 million tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][34]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is neutral [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to move in a range in the short term [2]. 3.2 Impact Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: The supply of downstream glass has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, increasing the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]. 3.3 Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy - Quality Soda Ash: Low - end Price in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,210 yuan/ton | 1,155 yuan/ton | - 55 yuan | | Current Value | 1,226 yuan/ton | 1,170 yuan/ton | - 56 yuan | | Change Rate | 1.32% | 1.30% | 1.82% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 103.50 yuan/ton, and the profit by the East China co - production process is - 212 yuan/ton. The production profit is at a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.67%. The weekly production of soda ash is 746,800 tons, including 414,800 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, and the actual production is 1 million tons [21]. 3.7 Fundamentals - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 98.36% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,100 tons, and the operating rate is 75.92% [27]. 3.8 Fundamentals - Inventory The national soda ash inventory in plants is 1.7142 million tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [2][34]. 3.9 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with risks still existing in hot - rolled coil inventory, and attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm. Future steel consumption may gradually recover, and although short - term demand is weak, there may be an inflection point with policy implementation and macro - environment changes [2] - For iron ore, affected by environmental protection restrictions and declining steel mill profits, iron ore demand continues to weaken, and inventory pressure remains. In the short term, ore prices will run weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5] - Regarding the black sector, it is considered that short - term "negative feedback" trading is a temporary shock, and it may be more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities after corrections. The subsequent price increase depends on whether stimulus policies are introduced and their intensity [9][10] - For manganese silicon, pay attention to the situation of manganese ore. If the black sector strengthens, it may be driven by manganese ore. For silicon iron, its operability is relatively low [10] - For industrial silicon, supply and demand are weak, and prices are expected to consolidate, waiting for new drivers [13][14] - For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but short - term de - stocking may be limited. Pay attention to the progress of the platform company [16] - For glass, the market lacks fundamental support, and prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [19] - For soda ash, the market has both long and short factors, and prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term [21] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3044 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.329%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 9143 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 37153 lots. In the spot market, the Tianjin and Shanghai aggregated prices remained unchanged [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3252 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.215%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 894 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 19517 lots. The Shanghai aggregated price increased by 10 yuan/ton, while the Lecong aggregated price remained unchanged [1] Strategy Views - Rebar supply and demand both declined, inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall. Hot - rolled coil demand declined significantly, with inventory accumulating against the season. Steel demand has entered the off - season, and attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm. Future demand may recover gradually [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 765.00 yuan/ton, up 0.59% (+4.50). The positions decreased by 17806 lots to 54.16 million lots. The weighted positions were 96.85 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 775 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.52 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.11% [4] Strategy Views - Supply: Overseas iron ore shipments continued to decline, with Vale and Rio Tinto contributing to the reduction. Non - mainstream country shipments increased, and the near - end arrival volume decreased. Demand: The average daily hot metal output decreased by 2.14 tons to 234.22 tons. Environmental protection restrictions in Hebei had a significant impact, and many steel mills increased maintenance. Inventory: Port inventory increased, and steel mill inventory also rose. In general, the fundamentals are weak, and short - term prices will run weakly [5] Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Information - On November 10, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed up 1.04% at 5820 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 70 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed up 1.12% at 5588 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 12 yuan/ton over the futures. Manganese silicon is in the 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton range, and silicon iron is in the 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton range [7][8] Strategy Views - The market is currently in a "negative feedback" trading situation, but it is considered a temporary shock. It may be more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities after corrections. Manganese silicon lacks a clear main contradiction, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore situation. Silicon iron has no obvious supply - demand contradiction and follows the cost of electricity, with low operability [9][10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 9290 yuan/ton, up 0.76% (+70). The weighted positions increased by 4310 lots to 440038 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China increased by 50 yuan/ton [12] - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 53720 yuan/ton, up 0.95% (+505). The weighted positions decreased by 6367 lots to 222392 lots. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged [15] Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, production increased in October, and supply pressure may ease in November. Demand is weak, and prices are expected to consolidate [13][14] - For polysilicon, production will decline in November and December, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally. Pay attention to the progress of the platform company [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1069 yuan/ton, down 2.02% (-22). The Huabei large - plate price decreased by 20 yuan, and the Huazhong price remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 265.40 million cases (-4.03%). The top 20 long - position holders increased positions by 107545 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased positions by 125534 lots [18] - The soda ash main contract closed at 1226 yuan/ton, up 1.32% (+16). The Shahe heavy - alkali price increased by 16 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 1.22 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased positions by 13469 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased positions by 26458 lots [20] Strategy Views - The glass market lacks fundamental support, and prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [19] - The soda ash market has both long and short factors, and prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term [21]

Hot News - In October, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.621 million, a year-on-year increase of 18.5% and a month-on-month increase of 8.5%. From January to October, the cumulative wholesale was 12.058 million, a growth of 29.9% [4]. - Since 13:01 on November 10, 2025, China has suspended the implementation of countermeasures against the US Section 301 investigation on the maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year [4]. - In October, Malaysia's palm oil inventory was 2,464,452 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.44%, and the palm oil production was 2,043,886 tons, a month-on-month increase of 11.02% [4]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the net inflow of domestic gold ETFs was 79.015 tons, a year-on-year increase of 164.03%. The gold consumption was 682.730 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.95%. Among them, gold jewelry consumption was 270.036 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.50%; gold bars and coins consumption was 352.116 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.55%; industrial and other gold consumption was 60.578 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.72% [4]. - As of November 10, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7062 million tons, a decrease of 0.008 million tons from last Thursday, a decline of 0.47%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 0.7977 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.0169 million tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 0.9085 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.0089 million tons [4]. Plate Performance - Key focus: Soda ash, glass, coking coal, SHFE copper, SHFE gold [5]. - Night session performance: Non-metallic building materials rose 3.25%, precious metals rose 29.09%, oilseeds rose 9.52%, non-ferrous metals rose 23.21%, soft commodities rose 2.72%, coal, coke, steel and minerals rose 13.02%, energy rose 2.90%, chemicals rose 11.18%, grains rose 1.20%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 3.90% [5]. Large - Class Asset Performance | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.53 | Fetching... | 19.90 | | | SSE 50 | 0.51 | -0.12 | 13.75 | | | CSI 300 | 0.35 | -0.29 | 19.32 | | | CSI 500 | 0.22 | -1.39 | 28.26 | | | S&P 500 | 1.54 | -0.64 | 16.17 | | | Hang Seng Index | 1.55 | 0.11 | 32.85 | | | German DAX | 1.65 | 0.38 | 20.35 | | | Nikkei 225 | 1.26 | -4.20 | 27.62 | | | FTSE 100 | 1.08 | 0.62 | 19.75 | | Fixed - Income | 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.01 | -0.18 | -0.40 | | | 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.02 | -0.12 | -0.56 | | | 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures | -0.00 | -0.07 | -0.49 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 1.38 | -0.09 | 2.81 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 0.47 | -2.09 | -16.53 | | | London Spot Gold | 2.88 | -0.57 | 56.84 | | | LME Copper | 1.47 | -1.46 | 23.83 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 1.61 | -2.67 | 30.21 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.07 | 0.43 | -8.17 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 3.27 | 9.97 | [7]

专题报告 2025-11-11 纯碱：供需错配与成本重塑 黑色研究员 报告要点： 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-233751212 langzj@wkqh.cn 当前，纯碱行业正经历供需格局的根本性转变。在供给端，过去几年的产能扩张大周期导致供 应量显著提升，而下游关键的玻璃行业却持续面临需求压力，房地产市场低迷与光伏玻璃增速 放缓共同加剧了供需失衡的局面，行业库存高企，价格承压。 陈逸（联系人） 黑色研究员 与此同时，成本支撑也在持续下移。一方面，主要原料原盐、液氨及煤炭价格均处于长期低位， 致使氨碱法等传统工艺的生产成本同比大幅下滑。另一方面，更具成本优势的天然碱新增产能 不断投放，其低廉的成本正系统性重塑行业成本曲线。 供需矛盾与成本坍塌共同作用，导致纯碱行业陷入"戴维斯双杀"困境，短期内价格预计仍将 维持弱势震荡。 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375135 cheny40@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 黑色建材研究 | 纯碱 供需失衡及成本下移共同推动纯碱下跌 纯碱是基础无机化工原料，被誉为"工业之母"。其主要生产工艺包括氨碱法、联碱法和天然碱法。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. Core Views Natural Rubber - The natural rubber market is expected to enter a seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, with short - term price range - bound. If raw material supply is smooth, there is further downward potential; if not, prices are expected to range between 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the long - term supply - demand pattern is bearish, and short - term rebounds should be treated as opportunities to go short. For glass, short - term long opportunities can be seized on dips, but the industry still needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem [3]. Methanol - The methanol market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventories. Before Iranian gas restrictions, the weak reality will continue to be priced in [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is stable, but November's supply - demand is expected to be loose. PTA is expected to be in a tight - balance in the short - term but loose in the medium - term. Ethylene glycol is under pressure due to expected high inventory accumulation. Short - fiber and bottle - chip markets also face supply - demand challenges [8]. Polyolefins - Polypropylene and polyethylene both show increasing supply and demand, but the market still faces pressure from new capacity and supply increases [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to increased supply and weak demand. PVC is in an over - supply situation, and prices are expected to continue to be weak [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose, and price drivers are weak. Styrene supply - demand may be in a tight - balance, but cost support is insufficient [14]. Summary by Directory Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber in Shanghai rose 200 yuan/ton to 14,550 yuan/ton, with a 1.39% increase. The whole - latex basis increased by 250 yuan/ton to - 445 yuan/ton, a 35.97% rise [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton, a 17.86% decline [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 260,000 tons to 4.515 million tons, a 5.45% drop. China's production increased by 86,000 tons to 1.223 million tons [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory increased by 15,439 tons to 447,668 tons, a 3.57% increase [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: Glass 2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,091 yuan/ton, a 0.91% decline [3]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: Soda Ash 2605 increased by 1 yuan/ton to 1,294 yuan/ton, a 0.08% increase [3]. - **Production Volumes**: Soda ash well - working rate decreased by 1.72% to 86.89% [3]. - **Inventory**: Soda ash factory inventory increased by 42,000 tons to 1.702 million tons, a 2.54% increase [3]. Methanol - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closed at 2,112 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton, a 0.61% decline [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 1.04% to 38.641% [5]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.41% to 76.09% [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (January) rose 0.25 dollars/barrel to 63.63 dollars/barrel, a 0.4% increase [8]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX was 698 dollars/ton, up 0.1% [8]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA East - China spot price rose 35 yuan/ton to 4,575 yuan/ton, a 0.8% increase [8]. - **MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: MEG port inventory increased by 7.5% to 56.2 million tons [8]. Polyolefins - **Prices**: L2601 closed at 6,802 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, a 0.04% decline [11]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 17.84% to 49.0 million tons [11]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.13% to 82.6% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: SH2601 decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 2,331 yuan/ton, a 0.5% decline [13]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 3.3% to 88.3% [13]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry operating rate decreased by 0.3% to 82.2% [13]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory increased by 18.9% to 22.3 million tons [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: CFR China pure benzene was 664 dollars/ton, up 0.2% [14]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased, with supply pressure rising [14]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Caprolactam operating rate remained unchanged at 86.1% [14].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for the chemical industry showed a mostly positive trend, with soda ash futures experiencing a slight increase in price, indicating a stable yet cautious market outlook for the sector [1] Supply - Last week, some production lines reduced output, with Jiangsu Debang and Ningxia Risheng undergoing maintenance, and a planned maintenance for Zhongyan Kunshan in December. Overall, soda ash production decreased by 10,800 tons week-on-week [1] Demand - Downstream demand for soda ash remains weak, primarily driven by essential purchasing needs, with moderate low-price stock replenishment. The production capacity for float glass and photovoltaic glass slightly declined, indicating limited fluctuations in overall essential consumption [1] Inventory - As of November 10, 2025, total inventory of soda ash in domestic manufacturers was 1.7062 million tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the previous week, representing a decline of 0.47%. Light soda ash inventory was 797,700 tons, down by 1,690 tons, while heavy soda ash inventory was 908,500 tons, up by 890 tons [1] Market Outlook - The market is expected to see narrow upward movement in soda ash prices, with light soda ash prices slightly increasing. Supply is expected to remain high, and inventory levels are likely to continue at elevated levels. The production capacity for photovoltaic glass is stable, while four production lines for float glass have recently been shut down, leading to reduced demand for heavy soda ash. Attention is drawn to the potential continuation of price increases for light soda ash and the willingness of downstream sectors to replenish stocks, with expectations that soda ash prices are unlikely to drop in the short term [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber Industry - The natural rubber market may enter a seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, with short - term price fluctuations in a range. If raw material supply is smooth, there is further downward potential; if not, the price is expected to range between 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern is bearish in the medium - long term, and short - term rebounds can be used as opportunities to go short. For glass, there are short - term trading opportunities for low - level rebounds, but the industry still needs capacity clearance [3]. Methanol Industry - The market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventories. The inventory problem of the 01 contract cannot be resolved, and the weak reality will continue to be priced in before Iranian gas restrictions [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX may fluctuate between 6,200 - 6,800; PTA may range between 4,300 - 4,800; for ethylene glycol, hold short - call options and conduct reverse spreads; short - fiber has limited rebound space; bottle - grade polyester chips will follow cost fluctuations [8]. Polyolefin Industry - Polypropylene shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand with inventory reduction, but the basis is weak. For polyethylene, the demand for agricultural films is strong, but attention should be paid to the potential impact of year - end foreign market inventory clearance [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and the market trend is bearish. PVC is in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to continue to be weak at the bottom [13]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose, and prices should be shorted on rallies following oil prices. Styrene supply - demand may be in a tight balance, but price drivers are insufficient, and the EB12 contract should be shorted on price rebounds [14]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned whole - milk rubber in Shanghai rose by 200 yuan/ton to 14,550 yuan/ton; the whole - milk basis increased by 250 yuan/ton to - 445 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at - 75 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 260,000 tons to 4.515 million tons; China's production increased by 86,000 tons to 1.223 million tons [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventories increased by 15,439 tons to 447,668 tons;上期所天然橡胶厂库期货库存 increased by 3,931 tons to 48,586 tons [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The glass 2601 contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,091 yuan/ton; the 01 basis increased by 10 yuan/ton to 39 yuan/ton [3]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The soda ash 2605 contract increased by 1 yuan/ton to 1,294 yuan/ton; the 01 basis decreased by 3 yuan/ton to - 3 yuan/ton [3]. - **Output and Capacity**: The soda ash well - working rate decreased by 1.72% to 86.89%; the float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged at 161,300 tons [3]. - **Inventory**: Soda ash factory inventories increased by 42,000 tons to 1.702 million tons; glass factory soda ash inventories remained unchanged at 204,000 tons [3]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The MA2601 contract decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 2,112 yuan/ton; the太仓 basis decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventories increased by 10,400 tons to 386,410 tons; methanol port inventories increased by 10,600 tons to 1.517 million tons [5]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.41% to 76.09%; the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 1.09% to 84.98% [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (January) increased by 0.25 dollars/barrel to 63.63 dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil (December) increased by 0.32 dollars/barrel to 59.75 dollars/barrel [8]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price increased by 45 yuan/ton to 6,560 yuan/ton; FDY150/96 price increased by 40 yuan/ton to 6,770 yuan/ton [8]. - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX increased by 0.1 dollars/ton to 826 dollars/ton; PX spot price (in RMB) decreased by 83 yuan/ton to 6,772 yuan/ton [8]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: PTA East China spot price increased by 35 yuan/ton to 4,575 yuan/ton; TA futures 2601 decreased by 24 yuan/ton to 4,664 yuan/ton [8]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: MEG East China spot price increased by 41 yuan/ton to 4,013 yuan/ton; EG futures 2601 increased by 18 yuan/ton to 3,942 yuan/ton [8]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 contract decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 6,802 yuan/ton; PP2605 contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 6,574 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventories increased by 74,200 tons to 490,000 tons; PP trade inventories increased by 8,600 tons to 229,000 tons [11]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate increased by 2.13% to 82.6%; the PP device operating rate increased by 0.9% to 77.8% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to self - use price remained unchanged at 2,500 yuan/ton; V2605 contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 4,915 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply - side Indicators**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 3.3% to 88.3%; the PVC total operating rate increased by 4.5% to 77.1% [13]. - **Demand - side Indicators**: The alumina industry operating rate decreased by 0.3% to 82.2%; the viscose staple fiber industry operating rate increased by 1.2% to 89.7% [13]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventories increased by 36,000 tons to 223,000 tons; PVC total social inventories decreased by 10,000 tons to 545,000 tons [13]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: CFR China pure benzene increased by 1 dollar/ton to 664 dollars/ton; BZ futures 2603 decreased by 84 yuan/ton to 5,422 yuan/ton [14]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventories increased; styrene Jiangsu port inventories decreased [14]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate remained unchanged at 78.8%; the styrene operating rate decreased by 1.4% to 75.1% [14].

周期论剑｜三季报深度挖掘 20251109 摘要 中国股市底层逻辑切换，估值折价的三大因素瓦解，市场进入估值修复 与扩张周期，未来驱动力包括无风险收益下沉、资本市场改革和经济转 型确定性。 预计 2026 年股市有望挑战十年前新高，本轮估值重塑将是广泛的，推 荐关注新兴科技、制造业出海优势、周期板块中的反内卷和新材料，以 及经济企稳后的金融板块。 短期内，预计 2025 年 11 月碳酸锂价格有望冲击 87,000 元/吨，但 11 月下旬至 2026 年 1 月可能回落至 75,000 元/吨左右。长期来看， 2026 年碳酸锂底部价格较今年有所提升，中枢约为 60,000-70,000 元 /吨。 化工行业整体处于底部，净利润创近 20 年新低，但随着资本开支下降 和需求可能回升，预计 2026 年景气度有望改善，建议优先配置龙头白 马股，如煤化工（华鲁恒升）、氨纶（华峰化学）和纯碱（博源化工）。 交运板块中，看好航空和油运。航空业受益于票价市场化和机队增速放 缓，油运受益于原油增产周期和地缘政治因素。推荐关注中国国航、吉 祥航空、南方航空、中国东航、春秋航空，以及中远海能、招商轮船和 招商南油。 Q&A ...