Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets like equities, waiting and seeing. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance Summary - **Financial Market**: In the stock index futures, technology events catalyze the active growth style; the market turnover of index options slightly declines; the bond market of treasury bond futures remains weak. For example, the current price of CSI 300 futures is 4,590 with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures price is 102.362 with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2][7] - **Commodity Market**: Precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have significant increases, with COMEX gold rising 1.57% daily and COMEX silver rising 4.69% daily. In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have daily increases of 0.27% and 0.31% respectively, but have declined this year. In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans and other varieties show different trends [2] - **Shipping Market**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe is under pressure, with a monthly decline of 3.37% [3] Macro - situation Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: Next week, attention should be paid to new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6] - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are worthy of follow - up [6] Asset Views - **Short - term**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold, and be cautious about risk assets like equities next week [6] - **Medium - term (Fourth Quarter)**: Hold the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds, and pay attention to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil [6] View Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures to oscillate [7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in shock [7] - **Shipping**: Container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to oscillate [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to oscillate, and aluminum is expected to rise in shock [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to decline in shock, and some varieties such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to oscillate [9] - **Agriculture**: Most varieties are expected to oscillate, and some varieties such as sugar and paper pulp are expected to decline in shock [9]

Report Information - Report Date: October 16, 2025 [2] - Report Title: Big Asset Morning Report [9] Global Asset Market Performance 10-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On October 15, 2025, yields in the US, UK, France, etc., were 4.034%, 4.674%, 3.478% respectively [3] - Latest changes were all 0.000%, with weekly, monthly, and yearly variations differing across countries [3] 2-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On October 15, 2025, yields in the US, UK, Germany, etc., were 3.480%, 3.952%, 1.957% respectively [3] - Latest changes, weekly, monthly, and yearly variations varied by country [3] US Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On October 15, 2025, rates against Brazil, Russia, South Africa, etc., were 5.521, 108.000, 17.505 respectively [3] - Latest changes were 0.00%, with weekly, monthly, and yearly percentage changes differing [3] Stock Indices of Major Economies - On October 15, 2025, indices like S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq were 6552.510, 45479.600, 22204.430 respectively [3] - Latest changes were 0.00%, with weekly, monthly, and yearly percentage changes varying [3] Credit Bond Indices - On October 15, 2025, US investment - grade, euro - area investment - grade, etc., indices were 3529.690, 265.945, etc. respectively [3] - Latest changes were 0.00%, with weekly, monthly, and yearly percentage changes differing [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were 3912.21, 4606.29, 3001.35 respectively [5] - Percentage changes in prices were 1.22%, 1.48%, 1.36% respectively [5] Valuation - PE(TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, etc., were 14.31, 11.95, 34.70 respectively [5] -环比 changes were 0.17, 0.11, 0.43 respectively [5] Risk Premium - 1/PE - 10 - year interest rates of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, etc., were 3.70, 5.77, - 0.38 respectively [5] -环比 changes were all 0.00 [5] Fund Flows - Latest values of A - shares, main board, small and medium - sized enterprise board, etc., were 535.21, 302.49, - 56.21 respectively [5] - 5 - day average values were - 543.77, - 301.19, - 56.21 respectively [5] Trading Volume - Latest trading volumes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were 20728.59, 6073.26, 1571.06 respectively [5] -环比 changes were - 5033.74, - 2016.33, - 620.88 respectively [5] Main Premium/Discount - Basis of IF, IH, IC were - 29.89, - 3.95, - 153.80 respectively [5] - Magnitudes were - 0.65%, - 0.13%, - 2.11% respectively [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data Closing Prices and Percentage Changes - Closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 108.130, 105.730, 107.815, 105.635 respectively [6] - Percentage changes were 0.10%, 0.09%, 0.11%, 0.09% respectively [6] Fund Interest Rates - R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3519%, 1.4694%, 1.5810% respectively [6] - Daily changes (BP) were - 12.00, 0.00, 0.00 respectively [6]

Economic Indicators - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a slight improvement from the previous month's decline of 0.4% [1] - The average CPI for January to September showed a decrease of 0.1% compared to the same period last year [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first time in 19 months that it returned to above 1% [1] Food Prices - Food prices fell by 4.4% year-on-year in September, contributing approximately 0.83 percentage points to the CPI decline [1] - Cumulative food price change for the first nine months was -1.8%, while non-food items saw a slight increase of 0.2% [2] - Significant declines in specific food items included pork (-17.0%), fresh vegetables (-13.7%), eggs (-13.5%), and fresh fruits (-4.2%) in September [2] Gold Prices - In contrast, gold prices surged, with gold jewelry and platinum jewelry prices rising by 42.1% and 33.6% year-on-year, respectively [3] - International gold prices increased from approximately $3,500 per ounce at the beginning of September to nearly $3,800 per ounce by the end of the month [3] - Gold investment demand remained strong, with sales of gold bars and coins experiencing a 44% year-on-year increase in the second quarter [3][4] Market Demand and Economic Policy - The low CPI indicates a persistent issue of oversupply in the macroeconomic landscape, necessitating increased counter-cyclical policy measures [2][5] - The government aims for a CPI growth target of around 2% for the year, the lowest since 2004 [5] - To stimulate market demand, experts suggest enhancing stock market performance and improving social security levels to boost consumer confidence [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the TACO trading strategy, which capitalizes on the erratic behavior of former President Trump regarding tariffs, allowing investors to profit from market fluctuations caused by his threats and subsequent retreats [4][5][11]. Group 1: What is TACO Trading? - TACO stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out," a term coined by Robert Armstrong to describe Trump's inconsistent approach to tariffs [4]. - The TACO trading strategy involves predicting Trump's behavior, where market downturns occur after tariff threats, followed by rebounds when he retracts those threats [5][6]. - This trading pattern has become a recognized method on Wall Street, allowing traders to buy during panic and sell during recovery [5][8]. Group 2: Recent TACO Trading Examples - On October 10, Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, leading to a significant market drop, with the Nasdaq index falling 3.56% and major tech companies losing approximately $770 billion in market value [6]. - Following a calming statement from Vice President Pence on October 12, the market rebounded, with Bitcoin and Ethereum seeing gains of over 2% and 7%, respectively [6][7]. - A similar pattern was observed on May 23, when Trump announced potential tariffs on the EU, causing a market drop, which was reversed after he postponed the tariffs [9][10]. Group 3: Market Immunity to TACO Trading - Analysts suggest that the market is becoming increasingly immune to Trump's tariff threats, as repeated instances have led to diminished effects of such announcements [11][13]. - The current geopolitical environment indicates that while tensions exist, the market's reaction to Trump's threats is becoming more rational and less panic-driven [11][12]. - The effectiveness of the TACO trading strategy may decline as investors grow skeptical of the credibility of Trump's threats, potentially leading to prolonged economic conflicts [13].

Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On October 14, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.034, 4.674, 3.478 respectively [3]. - The latest changes for all economies were 0.000; weekly changes varied from - 0.119 (Japan) to 0.233 (Brazil); monthly changes ranged from - 0.203 (New Zealand) to 0.115 (South Korea); annual changes were from - 0.314 (China) to 0.672 (UK) [3]. 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On October 14, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.520, 3.952, 1.957 respectively [3]. - The latest change for the US was - 0.080, others were 0.000; weekly changes were from - 0.120 (US) to 0.052 (Australia); monthly changes ranged from - 0.050 (US) to 0.174 (Australia); annual changes were from - 0.316 (Italy) to 0.530 (Japan) [3]. Dollar - to - Major Emerging Economies Currency Exchange Rates - On October 14, 2025, the exchange rates of the dollar against the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, etc. were 5.521, 108.000 respectively, with 0.00% latest changes [3]. - Weekly changes were from 0.17% (Malaysian ringgit) to 3.73% (Brazilian real); monthly changes were from 0.05% (South African rand) to 2.74% (South Korean won); annual changes were from 1.31% (Brazilian real) to 8.41% (South Korean won) [3]. Major Economies' Stock Indexes - On October 14, 2025, the values of the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ, etc. were 6552.510, 45479.600, 22204.430 respectively [3]. - The latest changes were all 0.00%; weekly changes were from - 3.26% (Mexican stock index) to 6.76% (Nikkei); monthly changes were from - 0.13% (Mexican stock index) to 12.14% (South Korean stock index); annual changes were from - 11.17% (Thai stock index) to 39.23% (South Korean stock index) [3]. Credit Bond Indexes - On October 14, 2025, the values of the US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - area investment - grade credit bond index, etc. were 3529.690, 265.945 respectively [3]. - The latest changes were all 0.00%; weekly changes were from - 0.62% (US high - yield credit bond index) to 0.34% (euro - area investment - grade credit bond index); monthly changes were from - 0.23% (US high - yield credit bond index) to 0.60% (emerging economies investment - grade credit bond index); annual changes were from 3.99% (euro - area investment - grade credit bond index) to 10.95% (emerging economies high - yield credit bond index) [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3865.23, 4539.06, 2961.10 respectively, with涨跌 of - 0.62%, - 1.20%, - 0.21% respectively [4]. Valuation - The PE(TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, etc. were 14.14, 11.84, 34.27 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.05, 0.06, - 0.78 respectively [4]. Risk Premium - The 1/PE - 10 interest rates of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, etc. were 3.70, 5.77, - 0.38 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.00, 0.00, 0.00 respectively [4]. Fund Flows - The latest values of fund flows for A - shares, the main board, small and medium - sized enterprise board, etc. were - 2111.40, - 1261.00, - 56.21 respectively, and the 5 - day average values were - 708.51, - 422.23, - 56.21 respectively [4]. Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 25762.33, 8089.59, 2191.94 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.00, 949.57, 334.11 respectively [4]. Main Contract Premium/Discount - The basis of IF, IH, IC were - 31.86, - 2.70, - 184.85 respectively, with amplitudes of - 0.70%, - 0.09%, - 2.57% respectively [4]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 108.170, 105.775, 107.865, 105.665 respectively, with涨跌 of 0.08%, 0.03%, 0.06%, 0.02% respectively [5]. - The R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3535%, 1.4736%, 1.5810% respectively, with daily changes of - 13.00 BP, - 1.00 BP, 0.00 BP respectively [5].

Group 1 - The core idea of the article revolves around the concept of "currency devaluation trading," where investors believe that governments will use inflation to alleviate heavy debt burdens, leading to increased demand for hard assets like gold and stocks [2][4][10] - Gold prices have surged by 51% over the past year, surpassing $4,000 per ounce, while the dollar has depreciated by over 10% against other major currencies [3][4] - The bond market remains calm despite rising gold prices, with long-term inflation expectations stable around 2%, indicating that professional investors do not foresee severe inflation [8][9] Group 2 - The article highlights a split in market sentiment, where stock prices are driven by excitement over artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to create a low-inflation, high-growth economy, while gold prices are influenced by concerns over currency devaluation and central bank purchases [10][12] - Central banks are actively buying gold to diversify reserves and reduce risk, while lower interest rates make gold more attractive as a non-yielding asset [7][10] - The article emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between long-term concerns about rising debt and short-term realities, as the future direction of markets largely depends on the Federal Reserve's next moves [12][14]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a rebound on October 13, following a significant drop the previous weekend, coinciding with President Trump's softened stance on imposing high tariffs on China [1][3] - Trump's initial threat to impose tariffs came after China's announcement of restrictions on rare earth exports, but he later expressed optimism about U.S.-China relations, stating "everything will be fine" [1][3] - Major stock indices responded positively to Trump's change in tone, with the Nasdaq index leading the gains at 2.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 630 points, or 1.4% [3] Group 2 - Analyst Adam Sarhan from 50 Park Investments noted that Trump's attitude shift sent a positive signal to the market, indicating a potential improvement in U.S.-China relations [3] - Market reactions to Trump's statements have led to frustration among professional investors, with Patrick O'Hare from Briefing commenting on the market's susceptibility to Trump's social media posts [3] - O'Hare highlighted the fragility of market pricing, suggesting that stock prices are easily influenced by threats to optimistic market outlooks [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report presents a comprehensive overview of the global asset market performance on October 13, 2025, including data on government bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading across major economies [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **Government Bond Yields**: 10 - year and 2 - year government bond yields of major economies are presented, with details on latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury yield on October 13, 2025, was 4.034%, with a one - week change of - 0.142 and a one - year change of 0.282 [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar's exchange rates against major emerging economies' currencies are shown, including latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly percentage changes. The US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate on October 13, 2025, was 5.521, with a one - week change of 3.31% [2]. - **Stock Indices**: Closing prices and percentage changes (latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly) of major economies' stock indices are provided. The S&P 500 index on October 13, 2025, was 6552.510, with a one - week change of - 1.37% and a one - year change of 14.19% [2]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Data on investment - grade and high - yield credit bond indices of the US, eurozone, and emerging economies are given, including latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly percentage changes. The US investment - grade credit bond index on October 13, 2025, was 3529.690, with a one - week change of 0.67% [2]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: Closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are presented. The A - share closing price was 3889.50, with a change of - 0.19% [3]. - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) and its环比变化 (comparative change) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX are shown. The PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 14.19, with a环比变化 of - 0.06 [3]. - **Risk Premium**: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate and its环比变化 of several indices are provided. The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of CSI 300 was 3.70, with a环比变化 of 0.00 [3]. - **Fund Flows**: Latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, main board, small and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are given. The latest fund flow in A - shares was 278.56, and the 5 - day average was - 118.93 [3]. - **Trading Volume**: Latest trading volumes and环比变化 of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small and medium - sized board, and ChiNext are presented. The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 23547.41, with a环比变化 of - 1608.73 [3]. - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: Basis and percentage of IF, IH, and IC are provided. The basis of IF was - 31.38, with a percentage of - 0.68% [3]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Closing prices and percentage changes of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 are presented, all with 0.00% change. The closing price of T00 was 108.065 [4]. - **Funding Rates**: R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M are shown, along with their daily changes in basis points. The R001 was 1.3570%, with a daily change of - 13.00 BP [4].

Bitcoin, other cryptos rebound, shutdown impasse continues, airlines see thousands of flight delays, and more news to start your day. ...

Group 1: Gold as a Safe Haven - Gold has consistently acted as a safe haven during crises due to its ability to maintain value [3][4] - Traditionally, gold prices move inversely to interest rates; however, this pattern broke as gold prices continued to rally despite falling US interest rates [4] - Gold tends to rise when stock and bond markets decline, making it a useful safety net for investors [5] Group 2: Limitations of Gold - Gold's long-term return potential is significantly lower than that of stocks, as it does not generate earnings or pay dividends [9] - Gold ETFs offer liquidity, but physical gold is less liquid and involves storage and security considerations [7] Group 3: Stocks as Wealth Builders - Stocks are the primary drivers of long-term wealth, providing capital growth and recurring income through dividends [10][11] - The S&P 500 index has delivered a 10-year annualized return of 12.52%, compared to gold's 3.92% over the same period [11] - Stocks allow for diversification across industries and geographies, spreading portfolio risk [13] Group 4: Volatility and Information Access - Stocks are often more volatile, with prices changing based on economic cycles and interest rates [17][18] - Publicly listed companies are required to disclose financial statements and material information, enabling informed investment decisions [15][16] Group 5: Balancing Gold and Stocks - The optimal investment strategy is not choosing between gold or stocks, but finding a balance of both [21][22] - Stocks should form the foundation of a portfolio for long-term growth, while gold can play a smaller role (5-10%) for protection during turbulent times [23][24]