1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthened. There is a higher probability of the implementation of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of the supply - side "anti - involution" policy on assets. Overseas, focus on the progress of tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Be vigilant against volatility spikes and pay attention to non - US dollar assets. Maintain a strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights Overseas Macro - The "reciprocal tariff" rates of the US on most economies have been released, with most rates (except for Japan and Malaysia) being lowered, reducing short - term tariff uncertainties. In May, the US wholesale sales monthly rate was - 0.3% (expected 0.2%, previous value revised from 0.1% to 0%), and the wholesale inventory monthly rate final value was - 0.3% (expected - 0.3%, previous value - 0.3%). In June, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed was 3.0% (expected 3.1%, previous value 3.2%). In June, the new non - farm employment in the US was better than expected, but there were concerns in the employment market. On July 4th, the "Big and Beautiful" Act was implemented, which may have limited long - term boost to the US economy and will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [7]. Domestic Macro - In June, China's export volume rebounded slightly year - on - year to 5.8%, CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year. The improvement in exports to the US was the main boost, and the "anti - involution" policy had a significant impact on some domestic - demand - oriented commodities. On July 1st, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission proposed to "regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with regulations and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity" [7]. Asset Views - Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthened. Pay attention to the impact of the supply - side "anti - involution" on assets. Overseas, focus on tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Be vigilant against volatility spikes and pay attention to non - US dollar assets. Maintain a strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights Macro - Domestically, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end will implement established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [8]. Finance - The sentiment in the stock market rebounds, and the bond market maintains a volatile trend. Stock index futures continue a mild upward trend; stock index options remain cautious; the sentiment in the bond market for treasury bond futures weakens [8]. Precious Metals - The risk preference rises, and precious metals such as gold and silver continue to adjust [8]. Shipping - The sentiment in the shipping market falls. For the container shipping route to Europe, focus on the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases [8]. Black Building Materials - Iron ore performs strongly, supporting the price center of the sector. Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, and others are in a volatile state, with different influencing factors for each [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - There is a game between reciprocal tariff negotiations and domestic policy stimulus expectations. Most non - ferrous metal varieties are in a volatile state, with some showing a downward trend, such as zinc and nickel [8]. Energy and Chemicals - OPEC+ over - expected production increase will drag down the energy and chemical sector to fluctuate weakly. Different chemical products have different short - term trends, such as some showing volatile rises, some showing volatile falls, and some remaining volatile [10]. Agriculture - In the agricultural sector, the prices of some products such as pigs are under pressure, and different agricultural products such as grains, oils, and livestock are in a volatile state, affected by various factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies [10].

Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 16, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.457, 4.638, 3.379 respectively. The latest changes were - 0.026, 0.014, - 0.026; weekly changes were 0.124, 0.027, 0.019; monthly changes were 0.064, 0.144, 0.167; and annual changes were 0.177, 0.526, 0.215. For Asian and South American countries, such as Japan, Brazil, and China, the yields were 3.894, 6.629, 1.661, with corresponding changes [3]. 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 16, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany were 3.900, 3.850, 1.853. The latest changes were 0.000, 0.020, - 0.028; weekly changes were 0.000, - 0.025, - 0.002; monthly changes were 0.180, - 0.033, 0.015; and annual changes were not available for the US, - 0.259, - 1.049 for the UK and Germany [3]. Dollar - to - Major Emerging Economies' Currency Exchange Rates - On July 16, 2025, the dollar - to - Brazilian real, South African rand, and South Korean won exchange rates were 5.568, 17.817, 1389.750. The latest changes were 0.21%, - 0.62%, 0.16%; weekly changes were - 0.08%, - 0.08%, 1.08%; monthly changes were 1.37%, - 1.03%, 1.20%; and annual changes were 1.79%, - 1.66%, 0.46% [3]. RMB Exchange Rates - On July 16, 2025, the on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, and middle - rate were 7.179, 7.180, 7.153. The latest changes were - 0.06%, - 0.06%, 0.04%; weekly changes were - 0.03%, - 0.04%, - 0.02%; monthly changes were - 0.15%, - 0.20%, - 0.33%; and annual changes were - 1.23%, - 1.45%, 0.34% [3]. Major Economies' Stock Indices - On July 16, 2025, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ were 6263.700, 44254.780, 20730.490. The latest changes were 0.32%, 0.53%, 0.25%; weekly changes were 0.01%, - 0.46%, 0.58%; monthly changes were 4.73%, 4.94%, 6.06%; and annual changes were 12.40%, 12.48%, 12.64%. For Asian indices like the Nikkei, Hang Seng Index, and Shanghai Composite Index, the values were 39663.400, 24517.760, 3503.777, with corresponding changes [3]. Credit Bond Indices - The latest changes of emerging economies' investment - grade, high - yield, and US investment - grade credit bond indices were 0.20%, 0.05%, 0.13%. The weekly changes were - 0.50%, - 0.02%, - 0.17%; monthly changes were 0.33%, 0.33%, 0.70%; and annual changes were 4.87%, 5.86%, 6.20% [3][4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, and SSE 50 were 3503.78, 4007.20, 2740.90, with changes of - 0.03%, - 0.30%, - 0.23% [5]. Valuation - The PE(TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 13.29, 11.37, 29.43, with环比 changes of - 0.03, - 0.02, - 0.02 [5]. Risk Premium - The risk premium of S&P 500 and German DAX (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) were - 0.70, 2.18, with环比 changes of 0.01, 0.03 [5]. Fund Flows - The latest values of A - shares, main board, and SME board fund flows were - 404.37, - 379.86, not available, with 5 - day average values of - 451.61, - 363.84, not available [5]. Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, and SSE 50 were 14420.38, 3006.57, 681.42, with环比 changes of - 1700.10, - 528.68, - 116.64 [5]. Main Contract Premiums - The basis of IF, IH, and IC were - 36.20, - 10.50, - 10.59, with amplitudes of - 0.90%, - 0.38%, - 0.18% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data Closing Prices and Changes - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.835, 106.000, 108.915, 106.080, with changes of 0.15%, 0.10%, 0.15%, 0.08% [6]. Fund Interest Rates - The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.5129%, 1.5311%, 1.5590%, with daily changes of - 8.00, - 6.00, 0.00 BP [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the bond market, highlighting the balance in the funding environment and the slight increase in long-term bond yields, while also noting the impact of central bank operations and market reactions to external news events. Group 1: Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted a 450.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 360.5 billion yuan after 90 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [2] - The funding rates showed a slight decline, with DR001 around 1.46% and DR007 around 1.52% [2] - Continuous large net injections by the central bank over two days have contributed to a stable funding environment during the tax period [3] Group 2: Market Reactions - The overnight rumors regarding Powell's dismissal caused initial market turmoil, with U.S. stocks experiencing volatility before stabilizing [4] - The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.659% and fluctuated slightly, reflecting a stable sentiment in the bond market [4] - Since June, the 10-year government bond yield has been oscillating within the range of 1.63% to 1.68%, indicating a narrow trading band [4] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - The stock market has shown resilience, remaining above 3500 points for six consecutive days, with investors expressing optimism despite potential downturns [4] - The surge in polysilicon prices by 50% since the end of June has contributed to a broader commodity market rally [4]

Group 1 - The Economist has historically acted as a contrarian indicator, accurately predicting market reversals in various sectors, including oil and cryptocurrency [1][9] - Five notable cover stories from 1999 to 2016 on oil prices coincided with market peaks and troughs, demonstrating a pattern where the magazine's predictions often reversed [4][8] - The covers titled "Flood," "End of Oil," and "Cheap Oil" were released at critical market junctures, indicating that when such terms are used, it often signals a trend reversal [9][12] Group 2 - The concept of "cover indicators" suggests that when a company or industry gains significant media attention, it may indicate that the market sentiment has peaked [10][12] - Statistical analysis shows that bearish covers outnumber bullish ones, with a majority of asset prices moving contrary to the sentiment expressed in the covers [13][15] - The average annualized return from following contrarian strategies based on The Economist's covers can reach 10-15%, with a high probability of success [13][15] Group 3 - Recent data from 2024 indicates that contrarian strategies based on The Economist's covers have yielded a success rate of two-thirds and an average return of 13.16% [18] - Specific examples of successful contrarian trades include shorting the VIX index and long positions in the French market ETF, demonstrating the effectiveness of this strategy [19] - The emotional intensity of cover stories often correlates with market opportunities, suggesting that extreme sentiments can signal optimal entry or exit points [20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the resurgence of turmoil in the bond market, particularly focusing on Japan's long-term bond yields remaining high, which has led to aggressive selling followed by buying support, indicating potential underlying risks ahead [1] - The article warns of a possible liquidity withdrawal risk in the U.S. stock market, suggesting that institutions are advising on strategies to mitigate the impacts of a deleveraging chain reaction [1] - There is an emphasis on the need for multi-directional strategies to navigate the current market conditions, as the crisis transmission model is being analyzed to understand the implications of the ongoing financial turbulence [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The current market environment shows a significant decline across all asset classes, including both risk assets and safe-haven assets like gold, which recently dropped below $3,200 per ounce, indicating a state of confusion among market participants [1][8]. Key Points and Arguments - The U.S. Treasury market is under substantial downward pressure, with current price levels comparable to those seen on April 2, when tariffs were first introduced. This situation suggests that the warning signals for the U.S. economy remain active, necessitating further efforts to support the market through both messaging and domestic policy [2][4]. - Recent developments in U.S. trade relations, particularly with Japan and South Korea, are progressing, although specific details have not been disclosed by the U.S. or China. The speed of these negotiations appears to be relatively fast, as reported by South Korean media [3]. - The U.S. internal policy regarding tax cuts has reached the House of Representatives. If passed, this could provide some stimulus to the macro economy, which is crucial for economic recovery [3]. - Domestic economic indicators in China have shown disappointing results, particularly in April, where new credit issuance was only around 2,800 million, falling short of expectations. This indicates a lack of robust demand for credit, as much of the financing was attributed to bill financing rather than genuine credit demand [5][6]. - The data reflects a cautious approach from both consumers and businesses regarding loans, with a notable decrease in household loans for home purchases and a lack of substantial investment from enterprises [6][7]. - The recent easing of tariff pressures has created a complex situation for the domestic market, leading to uncertainty about future expectations. This environment may result in a period of volatility, with slight upward movements but no significant breakthroughs anticipated [7][8]. - Market sentiment has shown slight recovery, with trading volumes in Shanghai and Shenzhen dropping to 1.15 trillion, indicating a period of struggle and indecision in the market [8]. - The technical pattern observed in gold suggests a bearish outlook, with the recent price action forming a head-and-shoulders pattern, indicating weak buying support and leading to hesitance among short-term investors [9]. Other Important Insights - The overall market sentiment is characterized by a desire for stability and gradual recovery, with the expectation that any significant upward movement will require stronger catalysts [8]. - The current state of the market is described as a "struggle period," where maintaining stability is seen as a positive outcome amidst the prevailing uncertainties [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a strong performance in commodities, with a notable increase in copper prices, while equity markets show a divergence in performance across regions, particularly with European markets outperforming the US and Japan [1][2]. Group 1: Asset Performance - Commodity prices continued to strengthen, with the CRB/Nanhua index rising and the increase in COMEX copper closing at a significant 10.9% [1]. - Equity performance showed increased divergence, with US stocks declining while the dollar strengthened [1]. - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks exhibited a strong positive correlation with US and Japanese stocks, while A-shares showed a strong negative correlation with Chinese government bonds [1]. Group 2: Equity Markets - European stock markets outperformed those in the US and Japan, with the German DAX and STOXX50 leading the gains, while US stocks experienced a broad pullback [2]. - Emerging markets saw strong performances from Vietnam and South Korea, with the Ho Chi Minh index rising by 5.1% and the Korean Composite Index increasing by 4.0% [2]. - In contrast, other emerging markets like India and Brazil showed weaker performance, with Brazil's IBOVESPA dropping by 3.6% [2]. Group 3: Bond Markets - China's bond market exhibited a "bear flat" pattern, with AAA-rated credit bond yields decreasing in the short term and increasing in the long term [2]. - The US bond market showed a "bear steep" pattern, with a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield influenced by inflation expectations, while the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September decreased compared to the previous week [2]. Group 4: Commodities and Currency - Commodity prices continued to rise, with 12 out of 14 types of futures contracts increasing, particularly in copper, coking coal, and silver, while nickel saw a decline of 1.1% [3]. - Since the beginning of the year, copper has shown a cumulative increase of 39.2%, with inventory levels for gold and silver decreasing [3]. - The US dollar index rose by 0.9%, reversing its previous depreciation, while the euro, pound, and yen depreciated against the dollar, although they have appreciated relative to the dollar since the start of the year [3].

Group 1 - UBS Securities forecasts a weaker US dollar will lead to increased foreign capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks, while A-shares may maintain a low premium over H-shares unless significant new external funds are attracted [1] - The report highlights that A-shares benefit from a slight appreciation of the RMB, resulting in some foreign capital returning, but the impact is limited due to the low foreign ownership ratio in A-shares [1] - Hong Kong stocks are expected to see more pronounced benefits from the weaker dollar, with southbound capital net purchases reaching a historical high in the first half of the year [1] Group 2 - Companies with high import costs or significant dollar-denominated debt are likely to benefit more from the weakening dollar [1]

Group 1: Major Asset Insights - Gold is expected to continue its bull market, with a mid-term target raised to $4200 due to geopolitical tensions and potential Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year [2][5][26] - Oil prices are likely to remain in the $60-70 range, with a risk of dropping below $55, as OPEC+ plans to increase production amid a shift towards supply surplus [2][27][37] - Copper prices are projected to rise above $5.30 due to tightening global inventories, despite uncertainties related to tariff policies [2][5][40] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market is expected to maintain an upward trend, supported by the resolution of tariff issues and anticipated Fed rate cuts, with a bullish sentiment returning [3][41] - The S&P 500 has regained its bullish momentum, with market expectations for two rate cuts by the Fed later this year [3][41][42] Group 3: Japanese Market - The Nikkei 225 index has shown significant gains, with a potential to break above 42500, driven by foreign capital inflows and improving economic indicators [3][43][45] - Japan's economic recovery is attracting international investment, with a low interest rate environment supporting corporate growth [3][43][45] Group 4: Macroeconomic Outlook - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown, with Q1 GDP growth at 2.1%, the lowest in eight quarters, and a potential for Fed rate cuts in response to economic conditions [11][20] - Inflation in the U.S. is showing signs of decline, but tariff policies may lead to a resurgence in inflation later this year [15][20][18] Group 5: Global Trade Dynamics - The ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and other countries are expected to ease trade tensions, with a likelihood of reaching agreements that could stabilize the global economic environment [22][23] - The impact of U.S. tariff policies on global markets is anticipated to diminish, although minor frictions may still cause short-term volatility in asset prices [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered Bank's report emphasizes a positive outlook on global equities while being cautious about the US dollar's strength, suggesting a shift towards risk assets due to expected dollar weakness [2][3]. Global Stock Outlook - The bank continues to favor global stocks, particularly increasing the allocation to Asian equities (excluding Japan) due to the anticipated weakening of the dollar, which is expected to attract more capital into emerging markets [3][11]. - The chief investment officer for North Asia at Standard Chartered highlights the ongoing uncertainty in the global investment environment, with a structural risk of "de-dollarization" gaining attention [4]. Fixed Income Strategy - Standard Chartered expects the dollar's decline to enhance the appeal of emerging market local currency bonds, maintaining an overweight position in these assets [7]. - The bank views global bonds as a core portfolio component, favoring emerging market local currency government bonds while underweighting developed market investment-grade corporate bonds due to high valuations and economic uncertainty [9]. Currency Perspective - The bank predicts that cyclical factors will lead to a weaker dollar over the next 6-12 months, with the euro and yen likely benefiting from this trend [13]. - Despite the dollar's ongoing dominance, there are signs of a gradual erosion of its position due to changing trade flows and structural debt concerns [14][15]. Gold and Diversification - The report notes that gold is becoming increasingly attractive as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, with central banks, especially in emerging markets, increasing their gold purchases [18][19]. - According to a survey by the World Gold Council, 76% of central banks believe that gold's share in global reserves will rise over the next five years, up from 69% in the previous year [18].