Market Overview - Gold and silver prices experienced a sudden surge, with spot gold reaching $5,100 per ounce, marking a 1.54% increase, and spot silver rising by 6% to $85.57 per ounce [1] - The market is closely watching the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data, which was delayed due to a government shutdown [2] Economic Data Impact - The delayed non-farm payroll report is expected to influence Federal Reserve interest rate policies, with a weak report potentially leading to a weaker dollar and higher gold prices, while a strong report could strengthen the dollar and pressure gold prices [2] - Current market expectations suggest a median increase of 70,000 jobs for January, slightly above December's 50,000, although some economists predict lower actual numbers [2] Consumer Confidence and Inflation - The preliminary consumer confidence index for February stands at 57.3, showing a slight increase but remaining at historical lows, while inflation expectations for the next year have dropped to 3.5% [3] - The Federal Reserve may have significant policy space, with potential for a prolonged easing cycle, which could support gold prices [3] Banking Sector Update - China’s Bank announced changes to its gold accumulation product, increasing the minimum purchase amount from 950 yuan to 1,200 yuan, effective February 12, 2026 [3]

1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The factors affecting commodity prices are complex, with the core factors being financial and commodity attributes. The financial attributes include macro - liquidity, risk preference, and the role of the US dollar as a pricing "anchor". The commodity attributes involve supply - demand fundamentals, including both normal and abnormal influencing factors [2][3][7]. - Commodity prices do not rise and fall synchronously but follow a certain rotation order. Based on financial attributes, the mean - reversion of commodity ratios drives price rotation. Based on commodity attributes, economic cycle rotation and inventory cycles lead to the rotation of "precious metals - industrial metals - energy - agricultural products" [11][15][19]. - The current commodity pricing is influenced by the re - construction of the monetary "anchor", the abnormal supply - demand factors in commodity attributes, such as technological revolutions, industrial transformation, supply - chain re - construction under geopolitical influence, and strategic reserves. These factors have a more significant impact on prices compared to traditional supply - demand drivers [3]. - In the past two years, some commodities have shown strong performance, mainly led by precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The current commodity rally is mainly based on macro - narrative logic changes rather than traditional demand - driven cycles. If the economic cycle recovers more clearly, the traditional demand and cycle rotation will contribute more to commodity price increases [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Pricing Factors and Rotation Analysis Framework 3.1.1 Commodity Pricing Factors - Financial attributes: Conventional factors include macro - liquidity (e.g., monetary policy, interest rates, inflation expectations) and risk preference. At a higher level, the US dollar serves as the pricing "anchor" for commodities, and its "de - anchoring" can lead to significant price re - evaluation [2][7]. - Commodity attributes: Core drivers are based on supply and demand. Normal factors include supply - demand gaps, production costs, and inventory levels. Abnormal factors on the demand side include technological revolutions, industrial transformation, and national strategic reserves; on the supply side, they include policy regulation, wars, pandemics, export controls, and weather [3][8]. 3.1.2 Commodity Rotation Framework - Based on financial attributes, the mean - reversion of commodity ratios (price - ratio effect) promotes price diffusion and rotation. For example, when the price ratio of copper to gold or oil exceeds the historical average, it may trigger a mean - reversion [15]. - Based on commodity attributes, economic cycle rotation and inventory cycles lead to the rotation of "precious metals - industrial metals - energy - agricultural products". In the recession period, precious metals are favored for their hedging value; in the recovery period, industrial metals take the lead; in the over - heating period, energy performs strongly; and in the stagflation period, agricultural products make up for the late - stage increase [15][19]. 3.2 Two Rounds of Typical Commodity Cycle Trends Review - The first round was in the 1970s, during the depression of the fourth Kondratieff cycle. The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system and two oil crises led to a tripling of the CRB index. Gold led the rally, followed by oil, and then agricultural products [28][34]. - The second round was in the early 21st century, driven by China's rise. The CRB index also tripled. LME copper led the early stage, oil had a more significant increase in the later stage, and agricultural products had a late - stage rally [28][37]. - After the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, commodities followed the economic cycle rotation. Precious metals led in early 2009, industrial metals rebounded in the second and third quarters of 2009, oil prices climbed as the economy recovered, and after 2011, oil and agricultural products remained stable while precious metals and non - ferrous metals declined [40]. 3.3 Current Fundamental Situation and Rotation Status - In recent years, the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have risen significantly, leading to expectations of a new commodity super - cycle. In 2025, precious metals and non - ferrous metals led the rally, energy was at the bottom, and agricultural products had not yet started [42]. - The drivers include the decline of the US dollar's reserve status, the double - loose monetary and fiscal policies in the Kondratieff depression, the demand for upstream resources driven by the AI technological revolution, the deepening of geopolitical contradictions leading to increased strategic reserves, and the return of manufacturing. However, due to the uncertain economic recovery, the typical commodity diffusion and rotation based on the cycle have not yet occurred. If the traditional economic cycle rotation becomes more obvious, the commodity rally will spread to black metals, energy, and agricultural products [46][54].

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures announced a capital increase of HKD 1.203 billion for its wholly-owned subsidiary, Henghua International, to strengthen its overseas business and enhance competitiveness in global markets [1] Group 1: Capital Increase Details - The capital increase will raise Henghua International's registered capital to HKD 2.029 billion [1] - The funds for this capital increase will come from the net proceeds of the H-share global offering, which raised HKD 1.203 billion by issuing 10.8 million shares at HKD 12 per share [1] - The capital increase will be executed through cash contributions, with no involvement of physical assets, intangible assets, or equity [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Henghua International reported a revenue of HKD 654 million and a net profit of HKD 417 million for the fiscal year 2024 [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025 (unaudited), Henghua International achieved a revenue of HKD 506 million and a net profit of HKD 328 million, both showing positive year-on-year growth [1] Group 3: Company Background - Nanhua Futures was established in 1996 and is listed on both the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2] - Henghua International was approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission in 2006 and has established wholly-owned subsidiaries in Hong Kong, the United States, Singapore, and the United Kingdom [2]

蓝鲸新闻2月11日讯，近日，中国证券监督管理委员会上海监管局发布行政监管措施决定书，剑指恒泰期货股份有限公司。 决定书显示，恒泰期货股份有限公司对互联网营销第三方机构的合规管控不足，未签订书面协议即利用第三方机构提供的服务开展互联网营销 活动。 以上问题反映出公司风险管理不到位、内部控制存在缺陷，违反了《期货公司监督管理办法》的规定。 对此，中国证券监督管理委员会上海监管局决定对恒泰期货采取出具警示函的监督管理措施。 ...

IM每日行情 IM行情概要 IM成交持仓 单位：点、手、亿元 单位：手 | | 收盘价 | +/- | 成交量 | +/- | | 成交额 | +/- | 持仓量 | | +/- | 持仓保证金 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中证1000 | 8239.51 | -0.13% | 27,323 | | -6% | 4,381 | -8% | | | | | | IM2602 | 8260.20 | -0.02% | 22,401 | | 6 % | 371 | 6 % | | 34,228 | -4,789 | 6 8 | | IM2603 | 8241.00 | 0.01% | 81,851 | | -1% | 1,353 | 0 % | | 180,217 | 4,986 | 356 | | IM2606 | 8086.60 | 0.16% | 19,572 | | -10% | 317 | -9% | | 106,695 | -114 | 207 | | IM2609 | 791 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2026/2/11 风险因素：1）地缘风险；2）东盟与印度经济增速不及预期；3）铁矿石与废钢供应超预期；4） 全球经济衰退。 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户。 This report is not a service under the futures trading consulting business. The opinions and information provided are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice to anyone. CITIC Futures will not consider re ...

2月11日，近期黄金市场在冲击每盎司5600美元关口后遭遇了显著的单日回调，GTC泽汇资本认为，这 种价格波动实质上是一次资产定价机制的"暴力重置"，而非黄金战略地位的终结。在全球研究视角下， 这种回撤虽然在短期内造成了市场恐慌，但更多表现为交易头寸的极端出清以及波动率的阶段性修正。 市场逻辑的深度剖析显示，1月30日的暴跌与历史上多次流动性危机引发的调仓行为高度相似。正如 2013年4月的单日暴跌以及2020年3月的"现金为王"时期，黄金在极端抛售潮中往往会暂时丧失避险属 性，转而充当资产负债表的流动性来源，针对这一点，GTC泽汇资本表示，这种现象反映了市场在微观 结构上的脆弱性——当交易过于拥挤、杠杆过高时，原本需要数月消化的压力会在极短时间内集中释 放。 从数据层面看，SPDR Gold Shares （GLD） 截至1月底的管理资产规模依然超过1700亿美元，这证明了 实物黄金持有者对底层资产的信心并未动摇。尽管部分杠杆化工具在剧震中表现出更高的波动性，但拉 长时间线来看，金价在过去三年乃至更长周期内仍处于复合增长轨道。GTC泽汇资本认为，2026年初的 这次调整更多是由于市场对美联储货币政策反应函数 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客 为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铝类产业日报 2026/2/11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 23,660.00 | +145.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,842.00 | +7.00↑ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | -145.00 | +20.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -133.00 | +7.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 174,403.00 | -10383.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 312,145.00 | -9395.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 46,325.0 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 14745 | 90 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20590 | 150 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -121791 | -1663 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -925 | 136 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 696412 | -3860 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 11468 | -438 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 10746 | 60 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) | 0 | 0 | | | | 16029 | 41 中国纱线价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32支(日, | 21520 | 0 | | | /吨) 中国进口棉价格指数:FCIndexM:1%关税( | | 元/吨) 到港价:进口棉纱价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32 | | | | 现货市场 | | 12418 | 0 | ...

整。盘面来看，玉米今日增仓上涨，市场氛围有所转强，临近春节观望为主。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 玉米系产业日报 2026-02-11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) | 2316 -15 | 30 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 7 玉米淀粉月间价差(3-5):(日,元/吨) | 2571 -66 | 24 -5 | | | 玉米月间价差(5-9):(日,元/吨) | | 吨) | | | | | 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日 ...