2025 年 12 月 23 日 期货研究 金 融 期 货 | 期货研究 2 2025 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 | 年 12 月 23 【基本面跟踪】 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 虞堪 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | | yukan@gtht.com | | 唐立 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 | | tangli2@gtht.com | | 日，国债期货 年期主力合约下跌 12 30 0.28%，国债期货 | 月 22 | 年期主力合约下跌 10 0.09%，国债期 | | 货 5 0.06%，国债期货 2 年期主力合约下跌 0.02%。 | 年期主力合约下跌 | | | shibor 报 1.2720%，较前一交易日下跌 0.1bp，7 | 资金方面，隔夜 | 天 shibor 报 1.4170%，较前一交 | 【基本面跟踪】 12 月 22 日，国债期货 30 年期主力合约下跌 0.28%，国债期货 10 年期主力合约下跌 0.09%，国债期 货 5 年期主力合约下跌 0.06%，国债期货 2 年期主力合约下跌 0.02%。 资金方面，隔夜 shibor ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the overall market, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the medium and long - term, the idea of buying on dips is the main strategy [4]. - Different commodities have different market trends and investment strategies. For example, precious metals are expected to show strong performance; some metals like copper and aluminum have certain price support but also face resistance; and some agricultural products like sugar are expected to be bearish in the long - term but with short - term uncertainties [7][11][86]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: Li Qiang plans major projects; the Ministry of Commerce imposes temporary anti - subsidy measures on EU dairy products; spot gold hits $4400/oz, up nearly 68% this year; Goldman Sachs expects a bull market in Chinese stocks next year, with corporate earnings potentially growing 14% in 2026 and 12% in 2027, and the stock market may rise 38% by the end of 2027 [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the end of the year, some funds cash in on profits, and the market faces uncertainty. But in the long - run, it is advisable to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts had different declines; the 12 - month LPR remained unchanged; the central bank issued 40 billion yuan of 6 - month RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong; there was a net withdrawal of 6.36 billion yuan in liquidity on Monday [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The unchanged LPR is in line with expectations. The economy has stable production but weak service and demand. There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. The bond market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship repair and rebound [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.60%, silver rose 2.30%; COMEX gold and silver had corresponding prices; the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts changed, and the Bank of Japan's policy statement affected the market [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The release of overseas central bank policy risks boosts market sentiment. Gold and silver prices are expected to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver [7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The unchanged LPR and strong precious metals prices pushed copper prices up. LME inventory decreased, and domestic inventories and premiums had corresponding changes [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's loose policy and strong precious metals support copper prices. But there is resistance due to the higher - than - expected 2026 copper concentrate processing fee and weak November consumption. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Domestic aluminum inventories increased, and prices oscillated down. LME inventory was flat, and premiums had corresponding changes [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overall inventory is relatively low, and there is support from overseas supply disruptions and the precious metals market. But there are pressures from tariff hikes and the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate and rise [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also had a price increase. There were corresponding changes in inventories, premiums, and other indicators [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The shortage of domestic zinc ore is expected to ease. The price is expected to be weak in the medium - term but may rise in the short - term due to macro - sentiment [14]. Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. There were changes in inventories, premiums, and other aspects [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic lead supply is tightening, and the price is expected to be strong in a wide - range in the short - term [15]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded sharply. Spot premiums and cost - end prices had corresponding changes [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure is still large, but the bottom may have been reached. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [17]. Tin - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin main contract price declined. The smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi had different production situations, and the demand was weak [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. The price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index and futures contract price of carbonate lithium increased [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure is relieved, and the bullish trend is not over. It is recommended to wait and see or buy options lightly [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index declined, and there were changes in positions and premiums [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to decline, and the over - capacity pattern of alumina is hard to change. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price rose, and there were changes in positions and spot prices [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The reduction of Indonesia's nickel ore production target affects the market. The actual spot trading is light. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to policy implementation [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. There were changes in positions, trading volume, and prices [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is firm, and there are supply disruptions. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [26]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased. There were changes in positions, spot prices, and inventories [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel market oscillates. The terminal demand is weak, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The winter storage willingness is not strong [29]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose. There were changes in positions and spot prices [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment decreased, and the demand for iron water declined. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill inventory was at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate [31]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price declined, and the inventory increased. The soda ash main contract price also declined, and the inventory increased [32][34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass demand is weak, and the market is expected to oscillate narrowly. The soda ash demand is weak, and it is advisable to short - sell [33][34]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon increased. There were changes in spot prices and premiums [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market macro - sentiment is stable. The future market is affected by the black market trend, cost, and supply. Attention should be paid to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [39]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon main contract price declined. The polysilicon main contract price also declined. There were changes in positions, spot prices, and inventories [40][42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial silicon supply may decrease, and the demand is weak. The polysilicon production is expected to decline, and the demand is weak. The prices are expected to fluctuate [41][43]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated. There are different views on the market from bulls and bears. The tire enterprise operating rates and inventories had corresponding changes [45][46][47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to operate short - term and hedge partially [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures and related refined oil futures prices increased. The European ARA refined oil inventories had different changes [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot and main futures prices of methanol had corresponding changes [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market will consolidate. The port pressure remains, and it is recommended to wait and see [54]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and main futures prices of urea had corresponding changes [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand has improved, and the supply is expected to decline seasonally. It is recommended to buy on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene increased. There were changes in premiums, inventories, and operating rates [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has room for repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit before the first quarter of next year [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract price declined. There were changes in spot prices, costs, operating rates, and inventories [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short - sell in the medium - term [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract price declined. There were changes in supply, demand, inventories, and profits [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is expected to improve, but the inventory is high. Attention should be paid to the risk of price rebound [63]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract price increased. There were changes in operating rates, inventories, and processing fees [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply has high maintenance, and the demand will decline. It is advisable to go long on dips [65]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract price increased. There were changes in operating rates, inventories, and valuations [66][67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX inventory is expected to increase slightly in December. It is advisable to go long on dips [68]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price declined. There were changes in spot prices, operating rates, and inventories [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE valuation has limited downward space. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread [70]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price declined. There were changes in spot prices, operating rates, and inventories [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is seasonally weak. The inventory pressure is high. The market may be supported in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog prices fluctuated. The demand after the Winter Solstice decreased but still supported the price [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand has decreased marginally, but the supply is large. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds in the short - term and pay attention to the long - term support [75]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg prices were mostly stable. The supply was normal, and the market trading was tepid [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot price is expected to squeeze the premium. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds in the short - term and pay attention to the long - term pressure [77]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price increased. The domestic soybean meal price increased, and there were changes in inventories and压榨量 [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import cost has a bottom, and the soybean meal is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils - **Market Information**: The Malaysian palm oil production and export data had different changes. The domestic oil prices rebounded [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The palm oil supply is large in the short - term but may reverse in the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to operate based on high - frequency data [82]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The spot prices of different regions had corresponding changes. The import and production data of different countries had different changes [83][84][85]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus. It is advisable to be bearish in the long - term but wait and see in the short - term [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price increased. The spot price increased, and there were changes in import, inventory, and operating rate data [87][88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand is not bad after the peak season. The price is unlikely to have a unilateral trend [89].

研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一尿素主力合约 2605 价格 1698 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格上涨 10 元至 1690 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 868 手至 16.35 万手，空头持仓增加 1915 手至 17.88 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | 少 70 | 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 19.18 万吨，较上一工日减少 0.32 万吨；较去年同期 增加 1.3 万吨；今日开工率 79.32%，较去年同期 79.11%上涨 0.21%。 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 117.97 万吨，较上周减少 5.45 万吨，环比减 4.42%。尿素港口样本库存量 13.8 万吨，环比+1.5 万吨。 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 39.3%，环比-1.25%，三聚氰胺开工率 58.5%，环比-3.3%。 4、印度 NFL 发布新一轮尿素进口招标，意向采购 150 万吨（西海岸 80 万吨 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 重要事项: 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 23 日星期二 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年12月23日 | 品种 | 爰新值 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 较前一日变化 | 价差 | | | | | | | | | | | F期现价差 | -46.82 | 11.0096 | 5.6096 | -5.65 | 52 80% | H期现价差 | -1.83 | -3.89 | 46.70% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | -132.46 | -18.31 | 8,1096 | 1.00% | 5.00% | -204.75 | -191.00 | 3.00% | IM期现价差 | -15.60 | 次月-当月 | 4.40 | 33.6096 | 28.50% | | | 零月-当月 | -26 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 12 月 LPR 利率未动，油厂豆粕库存增加 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-23 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国总统特朗普或将在 1 月第一周指定美联储新主席人选 特朗普预计很快提名美联储主席人选，市场风险偏好回升，美 元指数继续看跌。 宏观策略（股指期货） 12 月 LPR 按兵不动 综 12 月 22 日 A 股放量单边上行，市场情绪较高。近期在日央行不 及预期的加息后，宏观利空因素已经较少，因而市场保持进攻 态势，逐渐修复回撤。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展了 673 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 在政策利率未变的情况下，LPR 利率并未下调，市场预期落空， 加之风险偏好明显上升，国债期货下跌。 农产品（豆粕） 油厂豆粕库存增加 USDA 继续补发出口销售报告；南美天气总体理想，缺乏天气炒 作题材。国内进口大豆成本变动不大，上周油厂豆粕库存再度 上升。 有色金属（铜） 中国 11 月铜矿砂及其精矿进口量环比上升 3.05% 地缘政治及战争风险阶段升温，市场避险情绪继续支撑贵金属 走强，从而间接对铜价形成提振，预计盘面继续高位震荡可能 性更大。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 沪金重回千元关口，白银再创历史新高 ——中信期货晨报20251223 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | 金融市场涨跌幅 | | --- | | | | | THE MAN MET LAND THE THE | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现代 | | | 日度涨跌幅 周皮涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 | | 今年涨跌幅 | | | 沪深300期货 | 4564.8 | 0.83% | 0.83% | 2.07% | -1.15% | 16.42% | | 股指 | 上证50期货 | 3018.4 | 0.40% | 0.40% | 2.01% | 0.98% | 12.71% | | | 中证500期货 | 7123. ...

专题：四大证券报精华 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 12月23日（星期二），今日报刊头条主要内容精华如下： 中国证券报 A股休市安排来了！港股通交易日安排同步出炉 12月22日晚，沪深北交易所发布2026年部分节假日休市安排。沪深港通下港股通交易日安排也同步出 炉。 金银大涨！上期所最新调整 12月22日，上期所发布关于调整白银期货相关合约交易限额的通知。根据《上海期货交易所风险控制管 理办法》的有关规定，经上期所研究决定，自12月24日（即12月23日夜盘）交易起，非期货公司会员、 境外特殊非经纪参与者、客户在白银期货AG2602合约的日内开仓交易的最大数量为10000手。 五新隧装重大资产重组获注册 12月22日晚，北交所上市公司五新隧装发布公告，公司发行股份及支付现金购买资产并募集配套资金暨 关联交易事项获证监会注册。业内人士表示，这标志着"并购六条"发布后北交所首单发行股份购买资产 项目落地，也标志着公司迈入发展新阶段。 智元机器人新动作！租机器人吗？ 12月22日，智元机器人推出机器人租赁平台"擎天租"。记者发现，在"擎天租"微信小程序上，用户选择 所需的 ...

首席点评： 有色新高，能化亮眼 中国 LPR 连续七个月维持不变， 12 月 5 年期以上 LPR 为 3.5% ， 1 年期 LPR 为 3% 。中国央行：单笔 逾期金额在 1 万元以下可一次性修复个人信用，明年 1 月 1 日起正式实施。特朗普 " 钦点 " 理事米兰： 美联储明年不继续降息就有衰退风险；美联储明年票委放鹰：未来几个月内没必要降息， 11 月 CPI 被 低估。金银铜齐创历史新高，黄金盘中涨超 2% 、时隔两月再创新高，白银和伦铜连续两日创新高，现 货白银一度涨超 3% ，伦铜四连涨；报道显示美国发力封锁委内瑞拉石油出口，原油四连涨至逾一周新 高，盘中涨近 3% 。 重点品种： 贵金属，原油，油脂 贵金属 ： 国际黄金白银刷新历史新高。美国 11 月 CPI 同比 2.7% ，低于预期的 3.1% ，核心 CPI 同比 2.6% ，低于预期的 3% 。 CPI 大幅不及预期，引发市场质疑，但 CPI 整体下行趋势为降息提供空间。 美国 11 月非农数据分化，新增就业人口 6.4 万人，好于市场预期的 5 万人，但失业率上行至 4.6% 。疲 软的就业数据支持美联储继续降息，流动性宽松预期仍 ...

12月22日，国际银价格创历史新高，东方财富数据显示，截至目前，伦敦银现报69.02美元/盎司，日内 涨幅达4.58%，年内累计上涨超139%。 关于调整白银期货相关合约交易限额的通知上海期货交易所网站 上海期货交易所经研究决定，自2025年12月24日交易（即12月23日晚夜盘）起： 白银期货AG2602合约日内平今仓交易手续费调整为成交金额的万分之二点五。 白银期货AG2604合约日内平今仓交易手续费调整为成交金额的万分之零点五。 关于调整白银期货品种相关合约交易手续费的通知上海期货交易所网站 在国际市场的带动下，国内沪银期货同步走强，成功突破16000元/千克大关，亦刷新历史纪录。截至目 前，报价人民币16126元/千克，涨幅达2.30%，年内至今已累计涨超114%。 | 港伦敦银 HLSI (2025-12-22 17:59:49) | | +加自选 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 69.021 | 今开: 67.55 | 最高:69.42 | | | 3.02 4.58% | 昨结:66.00 | 最低: 67.55 | | | 沪银主连 agm （2025-12-2 ...