Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Volatility [1] - Cotton - Volatility [1] Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends of sugar and cotton, including supply - demand, price fluctuations, and inventory changes, and suggests a wait - and - see strategy [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5800.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5810.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14650.0 yuan [1] Market Trends - US sugar closed at 15.57 with a change of - 3.29%, and US cotton closed at 63.54 with a change of - 0.36% [1] Supply - Demand Analysis - Sugar: Driven by summer cold - drink demand, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets [1] - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increased the risk of heat damage to cotton. Current commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, there is bottom - support for cotton prices [1] Inventory Information - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 8681.0, a change of - 2.10%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 2867.0, a change of - 2.55% [2] Conclusions - Sugar: In August, excessive rainfall in Inner Mongolia was unfavorable for sugar - beet sugar accumulation and harvesting, delaying sugar - factory operations. Typhoons in September and early October affected sugar - cane in Guangdong and Guangxi, and the post - disaster recovery of sugar - cane growth needs continuous attention [3] - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the cotton - growing period were suitable, with some areas having higher yields and quality than expected. As of October 6, the cotton - picking progress in Xinjiang was 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton was flat to slightly lower year - on - year, and there is a downward risk after centralized listing. Cotton prices are expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan [3] Strategy Suggestions - Wait - and - see [3] Data Overview Outer - Market Quotes - US sugar: From 16.1 on October 12, 2025, to 15.57 on October 13, 2025, a change of - 3.29% - US cotton: From 63.77 on October 12, 2025, to 63.54 on October 13, 2025, a change of - 0.36% [4] Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning): 5800.0 yuan on both October 11 and 13, 2025, a change of 0.00% - Sugar (Kunming): 5810.0 yuan on both October 11 and 13, 2025, a change of 0.00% - Cotton Index 328: From 3281 on October 11, 2025, to 3280 on October 13, 2025, a change of 0.09% - Cotton (Xinjiang): 14650.0 yuan on both October 11 and 13, 2025, a change of 0.00% [4] Spread Overview - SR01 - 05: From 27.0 on October 12, 2025, to 32.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 18.52% - SR05 - 09: From - 3.0 on October 12, 2025, to - 11.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 266.67% - SR09 - 01: From - 24.0 on October 12, 2025, to - 21.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of - 12.50% - CF01 - 05: From - 50.0 on October 12, 2025, to - 60.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 20.00% - CF05 - 09: From - 175.0 on October 12, 2025, to - 170.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of - 2.86% - CF09 - 01: From 225.0 on October 12, 2025, to 230.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 2.22% [4] Basis - Sugar 01 basis: From 314.0 on October 12, 2025, to 340.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 8.28% - Sugar 05 basis: From 341.0 on October 12, 2025, to 372.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 9.09% - Sugar 09 basis: From 338.0 on October 12, 2025, to 361.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 6.80% - Cotton 01 basis: From 1450.0 on October 12, 2025, to 1489.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 2.69% - Cotton 05 basis: From 1400.0 on October 12, 2025, to 1429.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 2.07% - Cotton 09 basis: From 1225.0 on October 12, 2025, to 1259.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 2.78% [4] Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA: 76.05 on both October 11 and 13, 2025, a change of 0.00% [4] Profit Margins - Sugar import profit: 1459.0 on both October 11 and 13, 2025, a change of 0.00% [4] Options - SR601C5500: Implied volatility 0.0844, futures underlying SR601, historical volatility 6.69 - SR601P5500: Implied volatility 0.0806 - CF601C13200: Implied volatility 0.0971, futures underlying CF601, historical volatility 7.76 - CF601P13200: Implied volatility 0.0966 [4] Inventory Warehouse Receipts - Sugar: From 8867.0 on October 11, 2025, to 8681.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of - 2.10% - Cotton: From 2942.0 on October 11, 2025, to 2867.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of - 2.55% [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the mixed performance of corn, wheat, and soybean prices in the Chicago futures market, with corn and wheat experiencing declines while soybean prices saw a slight increase [1][2] - On October 13, the most active December corn contract closed at $4.11 per bushel, down 2.25 cents (0.54%) from the previous trading day, while the December wheat contract fell to $4.97 per bushel, down 1.75 cents (0.35%). In contrast, the November soybean contract rose by 1 cent (0.1%) to $10.08 per bushel [1] - The impressive corn yield in the northern and western Midwest of the U.S. is noted, with December corn futures attempting to hold the support level of $4.105 per bushel, and the next downside target set at $4.05 [1] Group 2 - China continues to seek Brazilian soybeans, reportedly purchasing 2-4 cargo ships of Brazilian soybeans, with estimates indicating that the sowing area in Brazil has reached 14-15% of the planned area [1] - The forecast for U.S. soybean planting area is expected to increase to 87-88 million acres by 2026 due to rising fertilizer costs and crop rotation willingness, while corn planting area may decrease to 92-93 million acres, and wheat planting area is projected to drop by 1-2 million acres to 45-46 million acres [1] - The global grain market is currently characterized by three major themes: record global wheat export supply, significant U.S. corn production with insufficient Midwest inventory, and the impact of U.S.-China trade relations on agricultural markets [2]

Core Insights - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures saw a majority decline in closing prices on October 13, with raw sugar futures dropping by 3.29% to 15.57 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures decreased by 0.47% to 63.54 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures fell by 0.21% to $5,836.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures experienced an increase of 2.80%, closing at 383.50 cents per pound [1] Summary by Category - **Raw Sugar**: Futures declined by 3.29%, closing at 15.57 cents per pound [1] - **Cotton**: Futures decreased by 0.47%, closing at 63.54 cents per pound [1] - **Cocoa**: Futures fell by 0.21%, closing at $5,836.00 per ton [1] - **Coffee**: Futures rose by 2.80%, closing at 383.50 cents per pound [1]

每经AI快讯，当地时间10月13日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数下跌，大 豆期货涨0.15%报1008.25美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货跌0.61%报410.50美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货跌0.35%报 496.75美分/蒲式耳。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The agricultural product sector shows a mixed performance. Pig and corn prices are in a significant downward trend, while palm oil prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. Other products such as eggs, soybean meal, and others also have their own market characteristics and trends, with different influencing factors and corresponding trading strategies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Pig prices continue to drop to new lows due to high supply pressure from active slaughter by farmers and a post - holiday decline in consumption. Corn prices also fall significantly because of the concentrated listing of new corn. Palm oil prices adjust downward, but the decline is limited, and it may show a high - level oscillation in the future [1]. 2. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Pig - Focus: The main 2511 contract of pigs continues to fall, hitting a new low. - Reasons: Farmers actively slaughter pigs, leading to a concentrated release of supply pressure. After the holiday, consumption declines, and there are sufficient meat substitutes, which restricts pig prices. - Technical analysis: The contract price is below the moving average system, and the MACD green column expands significantly. - Strategy: Continue to short - sell. Support is at 11100, and resistance is at 11300 [2][5]. (2) Corn - Focus: The main 2511 contract of corn continues to fall to a 10 - month low. - Reasons: The new corn harvest is gradually realized, and the concentrated listing increases supply pressure. - Technical analysis: The contract price is below the moving average system, and the MACD green column expands. - Strategy: Hold a small - position short position. Support is at 2080, and resistance is at 2100 [4]. (3) Palm Oil - Focus: The main 2601 contract of palm oil oscillates downward. - Reasons: The MPOB October report is bearish, and crude oil prices fall. However, the export of Malaysian palm oil remains strong, and the approaching seasonal production reduction limits the decline. - Technical analysis: The contract price breaks below the 40 - day moving average. - Strategy: Close long positions and conduct short - term trading. Support is at 9282, and resistance is at 9400 [7]. (4) Eggs - Focus: The main 2511 contract of eggs first declines and then rises, reducing the decline. - Reasons: The egg - laying hen inventory is at a historical high, and post - holiday demand drops, resulting in an increase in inventory. - Technical analysis: The contract price is far below the moving average, and the MACD green column expands after a death cross. - Strategy: Continue to short - sell. Support is at 2770, and resistance is at 2850 [10]. (5) Soybean Meal - Focus: The main 2601 contract of soybean meal first rises and then falls, with a narrow - range oscillation. - Reasons: Sino - US economic and trade relations are tense, but the short - term supply of imported soybeans is abundant. - Technical analysis: The contract forms a doji with a long upper shadow, and the MACD green column continues. - Strategy: Hold a small - position short position. Support is at 2910, and resistance is at 2945 [11][13]. (6) Soybean Oil - Focus: The main 2601 contract of soybean oil oscillates downward. - Reasons: The supply of imported soybeans is abundant, and the high - level oil mill crushing increases soybean oil supply. - Technical analysis: The contract price retraces the short - term moving average. - Strategy: Conduct short - term trading. Support is at 8238, and resistance is at 8360 [14][19]. (7) Cotton - Focus: The main 2601 contract of cotton continues to oscillate at a low level. - Reasons: The new cotton harvest in Xinjiang is expected to increase, and the demand season is not as expected. - Technical analysis: The contract rebounds slightly, and the MACD green column shrinks. - Strategy: Conduct short - term trading. Support is at 13200, and resistance is at 13400 [18]. (8) Apples - Focus: The main 2601 contract of apples adjusts at a high level. - Reasons: Apple picking in some areas is affected, and the market supply is not large. - Technical analysis: The contract price is above the moving average system, and the MACD red column continues. - Strategy: Hold a small - position long position. Support is at 8623, and resistance is at 8800 [20]. (9) Red Dates - Focus: The main 2601 contract of red dates fluctuates in a narrow range. - Reasons: New red dates are about to be harvested, and the market is affected by the harvest rhythm. - Technical analysis: The contract is in a rebound rhythm. - Strategy: Hold a small - position long position. Support is at 10995, and resistance is at 11250 [23]. (10) Sugar - Focus: The main 2601 contract of sugar oscillates downward. - Reasons: Domestic sugar mills start production, and imported sugar supply remains high. - Technical analysis: The contract price breaks below the moving average system. - Strategy: Close long positions and establish a small - position short position. Support is at 5424, and resistance is at 5482 [24][26].

1. Report on the Investment Rating of the Industry No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the vegetable oil sector, due to external macro - impacts such as the unexpected bearish supply - demand report of Malaysia in September, the weakening of international crude oil, and the end of pre - holiday stocking, the sector has shown a downward trend. Palm oil led the decline, followed by soybean oil, while rapeseed oil was relatively resistant to the decline. - In the two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) sector, affected by Sino - US economic and trade frictions, international crude oil price drops, and supply - demand imbalances, both are expected to have limited rebound space, and it is not advisable to chase high prices, but rather wait for mid - to - long - term short - selling opportunities [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Market 3.1.1 Market Review - On October 10, affected by the unexpected bearish Malaysian September supply - demand report, the vegetable oil sector weakened. The main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all declined, with varying degrees of position reduction or increase. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2601 closed at 8302 yuan/ton, down 0.36% day - on - day, and decreased positions by 1961 hands [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - NYMEX crude oil futures closed lower on Thursday after the Israel - Hamas cease - fire agreement in Gaza. - After Argentina suspended the export tax on grains, about 40 ships of Argentine soybeans were registered for export in November and December, mostly to China, affecting US soybean export sales. Argentina resumed the export tax on Thursday. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) was to release an official monthly report on October 10. An industry survey showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September would decline for the first time since February due to increased exports and decreased production. - Indonesia is approaching the implementation of the B50 biodiesel policy, which will require 20.1 million kiloliters of palm - based biofuel annually, compared to 15.6 million kiloliters under the current B40 policy. - From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 9.9% compared to the same period in September, with a significant increase in exports to China. - From October 1 - 5, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 12.55% month - on - month. - As of the 39th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils decreased by 2.19% week - on - week but increased by 17.18% year - on - year [1]. 3.1.3 Spot Market - As of October 10, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8580 yuan/ton, with a basis of 278 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; the average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9460 yuan/ton, with a basis of 22 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the palm oil import profit was - 569.67 yuan/ton; the spot price of grade - four rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10370 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis of 309 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan/ton week - on - week [2]. 3.1.4 Market Logic - Externally, Sino - US trade disputes and the decline of international crude oil led to the weakening of US soybean oil, and the bearish Malaysian supply - demand report pressured Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, after the pre - holiday stocking ended, demand weakened. In terms of supply, soybean oil production was high, and the inventory might increase. Palm oil was in the process of inventory accumulation, while rapeseed oil had a relatively strong fundamental support due to the expected supply gap [2]. 3.1.5 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, a small number of new short positions in palm oil can be added. Wait for the adjustment to end before buying new long positions in rapeseed oil, and hold short positions in soybean oil. Provide support and pressure levels for each contract [2]. 3.2 Two - Meal Market 3.2.1 Market Review - On October 10, the spot market of the two - meal was slow, and the futures market was under pressure. The main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all declined, with varying degrees of position increase. For example, the main soybean meal contract M2601 closed at 2922 yuan/ton, down 0.58% day - on - day, and increased positions by 57932 hands [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - As of October 2, the sowing progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean reached 9% of the total sown area, higher than the previous week and the same period last year. - Analysts expected that the net sales volume of US 2025/26 soybean exports from October 2 would be between 600,000 and 1.6 million tons, but the US Department of Agriculture postponed the release of the export sales report indefinitely due to the government shutdown. - The Trump administration was expected to announce a plan to rescue US farmers affected by the trade war and price drops, with preliminary expenditures possibly reaching up to $15 billion. - As of the end of October, Brazil's soybean exports were expected to reach 102.2 million tons, exceeding the total volume of 2024 and 2023. - As of the 39th week of 2025, the domestic inventory of imported soybeans increased, while the inventory of imported rapeseed decreased. The inventory of domestic soybean meal increased, and the contract volume decreased; the inventory of imported rapeseed meal remained flat, and the contract volume increased [2][3]. 3.2.3 Spot Market - As of October 10, the spot price of soybean meal was 2980 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis of - 2 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton week - on - week; the spot price of rapeseed meal was 2413 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis of 179 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton week - on - week [3]. 3.2.4 Market Logic - Externally, Sino - US economic and trade frictions and the decline of international crude oil pressured US soybeans. Trump planned to pressure China to resume US soybean purchases. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal was under pressure, and the demand was weak. For rapeseed meal, the approval of a company in Fujian to import Australian rapeseed had limited impact on the spot market, and the demand was limited as the aquaculture season was ending [3]. 3.2.5 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, it is not advisable to chase high prices during the rebound. Wait for mid - to - long - term short - selling opportunities. Provide support and pressure levels for each contract [3].

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 10 月 13 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 豆粕2601 | 2934 | 2938 | 2944 | 2903 | 2922 | -12 | -0.41% | 8723 ...

2025年10月12日 国泰君安期货研究周报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地驱动有限，关注下方支撑及宏观风险 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：中美经贸关系加剧盘面波动 | 2 | | 豆粕：贸易摩擦忧虑再度升温，盘面或反弹 | 8 | | 豆一：反弹震荡 | 8 | | 玉米：震荡偏弱 | 13 | | 白糖：低位震荡 | 19 | | 棉花：新棉上市压力有所释放 | 26 | | 生猪：去库不通畅，现货底未现 | 33 | | 花生：关注产区天气 | 39 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 12 日 棕榈油：产地驱动有限，关注下方支撑及宏观 风险 豆油：中美经贸关系加剧盘面波动 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：长假期间印尼 B50 消息刺激盘面反弹，但产地供给端并未出现实际偏紧信号，MPOB 报告超预 期累库中止涨势，整体仍维持区间运行，棕榈油 01 合约周涨 2.28%。 豆油：假 ...

Group 1 - Domestic futures market showed a significant decline, with soybean futures closing at 3617.00 CNY/ton, down 0.19% [1] - The Agricultural and Rural Affairs Ministry reported that the wholesale price of domestic soybeans for the 2024/25 season is 4475 CNY/ton, a decrease of 10.6% year-on-year, which is below the expected price range [2] - Imported soybeans' tax-inclusive average price is 3781 CNY/ton, down 7.4% year-on-year, within the expected price range [2] Group 2 - Brazil exported 1,488,130 tons of soybeans last week and plans to export 2,233,095 tons this week [2] - 89% of major soybean-producing areas in the U.S. are expected to have higher-than-normal temperatures in the next 6-10 days, with 50% of areas anticipating below-normal precipitation [2] - The USDA's weekly crop progress report is currently suspended due to the government shutdown, affecting market expectations [3] Group 3 - According to Ruida Futures, the recent dry weather has allowed U.S. farmers to accelerate harvesting, with an expected soybean harvest rate of 39% by Sunday [3] - Brazil's soybean planting rate for the 2025/26 season is reported at 8.2%, up from 3.5% the previous week and 5.1% year-on-year [3] - The anticipated rebound in U.S. soybean prices is expected to be limited due to a good harvest and weak demand from China [3]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，当地时间10月10日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线下跌，大 豆期货跌1.49%报1007.00美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货跌1.14%报413.50美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货跌1.53%报 498.75美分/蒲式耳。 ...