1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekly economic index declined, with the China Weekly Economic Index (WEI) at 5.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The production sub - index decreased while the demand sub - index increased, and the supply - demand gap widened [1]. - Production showed a downward trend, with a decline in the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar production and a significant drop in the automobile semi - steel tire operating rate [1]. - Infrastructure high - frequency indicators remained flat, with a slight decline in cement shipping and grinding rates and a slight increase in the petroleum asphalt plant operating rate [1]. - The growth rate of commercial housing sales slowed down, and the floor area of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities decreased significantly [2]. - Consumption increased, with improvements in movie box office and domestic flight execution numbers, but a slight decline in the subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [2]. - Exports decreased, as indicated by the sharp decline in South Korea's export year - on - year in early May and the drop in shipping freight rate indices [2]. - The price of pork increased, while the overall agricultural product wholesale price index decreased slightly. Industrial product prices generally declined [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Economic Index - The WEI was 5.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The production sub - index was 5.0%, down 0.6 percentage points, and the demand sub - index was 5.8%, up 0.3 percentage points. The supply - demand gap was 0.8%, up 0.9 percentage points [1]. 3.2 Production - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar production was 2.4%, down 3.4 percentage points. The blast furnace operating rate was 84.6%, up 0.2 percentage points. The automobile semi - steel tire operating rate was 58.4%, down 14.0 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average daily coal consumption of coastal power plants was 1.1%, down 0.9 percentage points [1]. 3.3 Infrastructure - The cement shipping rate was 39.3%, down 1.2 percentage points. The cement mill operating rate was 41.7%, down 1.8 percentage points. The petroleum asphalt plant operating rate was 28.8%, up 0.5 percentage points [1]. 3.4 Real Estate - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the commercial housing sales area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was - 8.1%, up 4.3 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the floor area of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities was - 17.4%, down 15.8 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Consumption - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of movie box office was - 43.0%, up 0.8 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of domestic flight execution numbers was 4.2%, up 1.0 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen was 2.6%, down 0.2 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Exports - South Korea's export year - on - year in early May was - 23.8%, down 43.1 percentage points from late April. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was - 33.6%, down 5.5 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was - 28.9%, down 4.6 percentage points [2]. 3.7 CPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index was - 2.6%, down 0.3 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of pork was 1.5%, up 0.3 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was - 5.9%, down 2.3 percentage points [3]. 3.8 PPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Nanhua Composite Index was - 9.4%, down 0.3 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Brent crude oil spot price was - 24.8%, up 1.1 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the rebar price was - 12.7%, down 0.9 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Qinhuangdao Port steam coal closing price was - 21.3%, down 2.0 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the cement price index was 15.8%, down 1.9 percentage points [3].

宏观日报 | 2025-05-13 关注关税战后行业进出口变化 中观事件总览 生产行业：中美关税战告一段落。 1）中美发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。美方承诺取消根据2025年4月8 日第14259号行政令和2025年4月9日第14266号行政令对中国商品加征的共计91%的关税，修改2025年4月2日第 14257号行政令对中国商品加征的34%的对等关税，其中24%的关税暂停加征90天，保留剩余10%的关税。相应地， 中方取消对美国商品加征的共计91%的反制关税；针对美对等关税的34%反制关税，相应暂停其中24%的关税90天， 剩余10%的关税予以保留。中方还相应暂停或取消对美国的非关税反制措施。。2）据商务部，截至目前，2025年汽 车以旧换新补贴申请量达322.5万份。自2024年汽车以旧换新政策实施以来，累计补贴申请量已突破1000万份。汽 车以旧换新政策有效促进汽车消费持续回升，今年1—4月，国内乘用车零售量687.2万辆，同比增长7.9% 服务行业：关注金融业"补降"。 1）近期中小银行正加速"补降"。据不完全统计，4月起已有哈密市商业银行、聊 城沪农商村镇银行、海伦惠丰村镇银行、福建华通银行等 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the establishment of a "three-in-one" funding guarantee mechanism involving central budget investment, ultra-long-term special bonds, and special bonds to support local government projects in key areas [1] - Local government special bonds currently focus on supporting ten key areas, including transportation infrastructure, energy, agriculture, ecological protection, social undertakings, logistics infrastructure, municipal and industrial parks, major national strategic projects, affordable housing, and new infrastructure [2] Group 2 - The detailed categories of projects supported by local government special bonds include various subfields such as railways, highways, renewable energy bases, urban sewage treatment, and affordable housing projects [3][4] - There is a clear list of prohibited projects for local government special bonds, which includes projects with no revenue, government office buildings, image projects, real estate developments (excluding affordable housing), and general competitive industry projects [5] Group 3 - The application process for local government special bonds involves several steps, including project proposal submission, project information entry into the provincial government bond management platform, initial review by relevant departments, and expert evaluation [6][7] - Required documentation for the application includes implementation plans, feasibility studies, financial evaluation reports, planning permits, project approval documents, environmental impact assessments, and income projections [8][9]

Economic Overview - In the first quarter of this year, China's economy continued to show a stable recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4%, surpassing last year's overall growth of 5% and the first quarter's growth of 5.3% [1] - Economic performance varied across cities, with regions like Yulin, Luoyang, Qujing, and Liuzhou experiencing negative GDP growth compared to the same period last year [1] City-Specific Analysis Yulin: Energy Cycle - Yulin's GDP has grown from over 200 billion to over 700 billion in the past decade, with a peak increase of over 100 billion in a single year [6] - The city's economy is heavily reliant on fossil energy, contributing significantly to its GDP, with 80% of Shaanxi's coal and 70% of its natural gas produced in Yulin [9] - In Q1, Yulin's actual GDP growth was 5.6%, but nominal GDP decreased by 0.42%, largely due to falling coal prices [9] Luoyang: Industrial Restructuring - Luoyang's GDP for Q1 was 135.54 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, but a decrease of nearly 1.9 billion compared to the same period last year [10] - The city has faced continuous negative GDP growth for two consecutive years, attributed to declining prices in various sectors [10][11] - Luoyang's traditional industries, such as steel and chemicals, are under pressure from price declines, necessitating a shift towards high-value industries [13] Qujing: Awaiting Recovery - Qujing's GDP has declined for two consecutive years, with a reduction of 10.9 billion in Q1 [17] - The city, traditionally reliant on resource-based industries, is facing challenges as both traditional and emerging sectors experience downturns [17] - Corruption issues have also impacted local economic development, with significant investigations into local officials [17] Liuzhou: Industrial Revival - Liuzhou's GDP for Q1 was 72.003 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, but a decrease of 1.62 billion compared to last year [19] - The city has seen a decline in several key industrial outputs, indicating a stagnation in economic growth since 2018 [20][22] - Liuzhou is attempting to transition from traditional industries to emerging sectors like new energy and materials, but the pace of change is slow [25][26]

Group 1 - The "Jiangxi sector" achieved nearly 1.08 trillion yuan in total operating revenue in 2024, ranking tenth among 31 provinces and cities in China [1] - Jiangxi listed companies distributed a total dividend of nearly 10.4 billion yuan in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of approximately 77%, ranking eighth nationwide [1][3] - Jiangxi Copper (600362) reported over 520 billion yuan in operating revenue for 2024, with a net profit of 6.962 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.03% [1] Group 2 - JinkoSolar (688223) topped the A-share photovoltaic industry with an annual operating revenue of 92.471 billion yuan, achieving a global module shipment of 92.87 GW, a year-on-year growth of 18.28% [1] - The company maintained its position as the global leader in module shipments for the sixth consecutive year, with N-type module shipments accounting for 88% of total shipments in 2024 [1] Group 3 - Major infrastructure projects like the Gan-Shen High-speed Railway and Gan-Yue Canal are transforming Jiangxi from an "inland hinterland" to an "open frontier" [2] - Jiangxi Copper is expanding internationally with new offices in South America and Southeast Asia, while JinkoSolar is establishing a new battery and module factory in Saudi Arabia [2] - Other companies like Funeng Technology (688567) and Nipe Mining (300818) are also advancing their international strategies, indicating a trend of "Jiangxi manufacturing" integrating into the global supply chain [2] Group 4 - Jiangxi listed companies are focusing on refining their core businesses while actively implementing the "1269" action plan to upgrade traditional industries and foster emerging sectors [3] - In 2024, Jiangxi Copper allocated 2.417 billion yuan for cash dividends, with several other companies also distributing over 500 million yuan in dividends [3] - The overall dividend distribution of nearly 10.4 billion yuan reflects a strong commitment to shareholder returns and social responsibility among Jiangxi enterprises [3] Group 5 - As the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches its conclusion, Jiangxi listed companies are showing promising new developments, with traditional industry giants and emerging players competing in the capital market [4] - The formation of a trillion-level non-ferrous metal industry cluster and a photovoltaic new energy base is expected to enhance the national ranking of the "Jiangxi sector" in the next five years [4]

Group 1 - The China-US economic and trade high-level talks held in Geneva from May 10 to 11 were described as candid, in-depth, and constructive, achieving important consensus and substantial progress, with both sides agreeing to establish a consultation mechanism [3] - In 2024, 27 cities in China are expected to have a GDP exceeding 1 trillion yuan, with 8 cities reporting GDP growth rates of 6% or higher in Q1 [3] Group 2 - In April, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.755 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, marking a historical high for April [4] - The judicial restructuring of Jinke Properties has entered an important execution phase, potentially making it the first large listed real estate company in China to successfully undergo judicial restructuring [4] Group 3 - Over 30 provinces in China have piloted the sale of existing homes since the end of 2022, with the sales area of existing homes expected to reach approximately 300 million square meters in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.1% [6] - Beijing has released its 2025 housing development annual plan, aiming to optimize housing land supply and prioritize development around well-equipped areas [6] Group 4 - In May, 28 stocks in the A-share market will face the lifting of lock-up restrictions, with a total of 1.066 billion shares being unlocked, valued at approximately 18.63 billion yuan [9] - Fund companies have conducted intensive research on 109 listed companies, mainly in the electronics, machinery, and computer sectors, with a focus on semiconductor companies [9] Group 5 - Saudi Aramco reported a net profit of $26 billion in Q1, a year-on-year decrease of about 5%, with capital expenditures of $12.5 billion [18] - OpenAI is in discussions with Microsoft to unlock new funding and prepare for a future IPO [18]

斯卢茨基强调，中俄经贸关系中地区合作潜力巨大，这是两国关系发展的重要领域之一，也是未来重要 的"增长极"。 2023年以来，随着中俄两国在欧亚大陆最长的边境——中俄国境线解除防控疫情限制措施，俄罗斯联邦 各主体与中国各省份之间的交流呈现爆发式增长。经贸、文化、人文、教育等领域的交流日益密切。与 对俄实施不友好政策的西方国家的关系淡化，为俄罗斯与中国的互动提供了额外动力。 中国连续15年保持俄罗斯第一大贸易伙伴国地位，2024年，中俄双边贸易额达2448亿美元，同比增长 1.9%，创下历史新高。俄罗斯国家杜马国际事务委员会主席、俄罗斯自由民主党主席列奥尼德·斯卢茨 基在接受经济日报记者采访时表示，中俄经贸合作持续深化，越来越好，为两国关系发展注入了蓬勃活 力。其中，地区合作将是双边务实的重要增长点。 斯卢茨基表示，根据中国海关总署数据，2013年至2023年，俄中之间的贸易额从892亿美元增长到 2401.1亿美元，增长十分显著。2024年，双方贸易额更是达到2448亿美元的历史新高。同时，2024年中 国从俄罗斯进口的商品总额达1293.2亿美元，中国对俄罗斯出口的商品总额达1154.9亿美元。 斯卢茨基分析 ...

Group 1 - In April 2023, Guangdong's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.3% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.4%, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 0.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers in Guangdong decreased by 0.3% month-on-month and 1.4% year-on-year, with the month-on-month decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.1% year-on-year, contrasting with a decline of 0.1% in the previous month, indicating a change of 0.2 percentage points [1] Group 2 - Food prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, compared to a decline of 0.9% in the previous month, resulting in a difference of 1.2 percentage points [2] - Within food prices, pork prices decreased by 1.1%, with the decline narrowing by 2.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - Non-food prices shifted from a decline of 0.3% to an increase of 0.2%, influenced by increased travel demand during the Qingming Festival and the upcoming May Day holiday, as well as large exhibitions like the Canton Fair [2]

Group 1: CPI and Core CPI Trends - In April, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) shifted from a decrease of 0.4% in the previous month to an increase of 0.1% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.5% year-on-year, indicating stable growth [1][4] - The increase in core CPI reflects the internal resilience of the economy, supported by ongoing macro policies [4] Group 2: Price Changes in Specific Sectors - Prices in the wearable smart device manufacturing sector increased by 3% year-on-year, while aircraft manufacturing prices rose by 1.3% [1][4] - Service prices showed a steady upward trend, with significant increases in travel-related services, such as airfares rising by 13.5% and hotel accommodation by 4.5% [2] - The prices of black metal smelting and non-metal mineral products saw a narrowing decline, indicating a recovery in demand due to infrastructure projects [5] Group 3: Energy Prices and Their Impact - International oil prices fell significantly due to production increases from countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia, leading to a 4.8% year-on-year decline in energy prices [3] - The drop in gasoline prices by 10.4% contributed approximately 0.38 percentage points to the year-on-year decline in CPI [2][3] Group 4: Policy Impacts on Consumption and Prices - Various policies aimed at boosting consumption and upgrading service quality have been implemented, contributing to the recovery of service consumption [2][5] - The ongoing promotion of trade diversification has led to price increases in certain export sectors, such as integrated circuit packaging, which rose by 2.7% year-on-year [5]

美股盘初，主要行业ETF普涨，半导体ETF涨超1%，可选消费ETF、全球航空业ETF涨近1%。 | 行业类 V | 当前价 * | 涨跌幅 ÷ | 成交量 ÷ | | 总市值 = 年初至今 = | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 半导体ETF --- | 224.70 | ↓ +2.75 (+1.24%) | 29.13万股 | 26.56亿 | -7.21% | (j ... | | us SMH | | | | | | | | 可选消费ET ... | 203.21 | +1.77 (+0.88%) | 17.97万股 | 255.24亿 | -9.17% | ( ) ... | | us XLY | | | | | | | | 全球航空业E ... | 22.01 | +0.19 (+0.87%) | 10.03万股 | 6933.15万 | -13.18% | = == | | US JETS | | | | | | | | 能源业ETF - ... | 82.31 | +0.70 (+0.86%) | 97.01万股 | 206.14 ...