Global Market Overview - Global stock markets rose overall, with Hong Kong and US stocks leading the gains[1] - Major commodities such as crude oil, gold, copper, and aluminum also saw price increases[1] - The US dollar index fell slightly, while the offshore RMB and euro appreciated, and the yen depreciated[1] Domestic Equity Market - As of June 6, the average daily trading volume in the domestic equity market was 11,857 billion RMB, up from 10,699 billion RMB[2] - Among the 31 sectors tracked, 25 sectors rose, with telecommunications (+5.27%), non-ferrous metals (+3.74%), and electronics (+3.60%) leading the gains[2] - Conversely, household appliances (-1.79%), food and beverage (-1.06%), and transportation (-0.54%) saw declines[2] Interest Rates and Currency Exchange - The People's Bank of China adopted a "short-term collection and long-term release" liquidity management strategy, leading to a decrease in short-term liquidity demand[2] - The 1Y government bond yield fell by 4.5 basis points to 1.41%, while the 10Y yield decreased by 1.65 basis points to 1.6547%[1] - The offshore RMB appreciated by 0.25% against the US dollar, closing at 7.1885[2] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for April was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points month-on-month, but rose by 0.5 percentage points in May[2] - The industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 6.1% year-on-year, while the profits of industrial enterprises increased by 3.0% year-on-year in April[2] - The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.8 in April to 49.6 in May, indicating a contraction in manufacturing output globally[2] Commodity Trends - Crude oil prices rebounded significantly due to easing trade relations and OPEC+ moderate production increases[1] - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 14.63% month-on-month to 62,300 units[1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 15.2% week-on-week, indicating improved shipping demand[1]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Timing System Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the distance between the short-term moving average (20-day) and the long-term moving average (120-day) of the Wind All A Index to determine the overall market environment and identify market trends [1][9][12] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the 20-day moving average (short-term) and the 120-day moving average (long-term) of the Wind All A Index 2. Compute the difference between the two moving averages: $ \text{Difference} = \text{20-day MA} - \text{120-day MA} $ 3. Evaluate the absolute value of the difference. If the absolute value is less than 3%, the market is considered to be in a consolidation phase [1][9][12] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the market's consolidation phase and provides a clear signal for timing decisions [1][9][12] - **Model Name**: Industry Allocation Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies industries with medium-term growth potential and recommends allocation based on sectoral trends and macroeconomic factors [2][3][10] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Analyze macroeconomic factors and market sentiment 2. Identify sectors with potential for recovery or growth, such as "distressed reversal" sectors 3. Recommend specific industries, such as innovative pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and new consumption in the Hong Kong market, as well as technology sectors like consumer electronics [2][3][10] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides actionable insights for medium-term industry allocation, focusing on sectors with growth potential [2][3][10] - **Model Name**: TWO BETA Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on identifying high-growth sectors, particularly in technology, and recommends allocation based on their performance trends [2][3][10] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Analyze the performance of high-beta sectors, such as technology and consumer electronics 2. Monitor the upward trend of specific industries, such as banking and gold stocks, to identify allocation opportunities [2][3][10] **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying high-growth sectors and provides a focused approach to sectoral allocation [2][3][10] - **Model Name**: Position Management Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model determines the recommended equity allocation based on valuation indicators and short-term market trends [2][10][12] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Evaluate the PE and PB valuation levels of the Wind All A Index 2. Assess the relative position of these indicators within their historical ranges 3. Combine valuation analysis with short-term market trend signals to recommend an equity allocation level (e.g., 50% for absolute return products) [2][10][12] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a balanced approach to equity allocation, considering both valuation and market trends [2][10][12] Model Backtesting Results - **Timing System Model**: The moving average difference is 0.68%, with the absolute value remaining below 3%, indicating a consolidation phase [1][9][12] - **Position Management Model**: - PE valuation level: 60th percentile, indicating a medium level - PB valuation level: 20th percentile, indicating a relatively low level - Recommended equity allocation: 50% [2][10][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise of new consumption companies in the market, with notable examples like Pop Mart being compared to "the Moutai of young people" and other companies like Lao Pu Gold and Mixue Ice City experiencing substantial stock price increases [1][11] - The new consumption trend is primarily driven by the Z generation, who advocate for "self-consumption," and in the context of macroeconomic pressure, products that provide emotional value have become necessities, reflecting a modern "lipstick effect" [2][12] - The performance of new consumption indices, particularly the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Index, which has risen by 20.66% this year, indicates strong market interest and investment in this sector [1][2] Group 2 - The Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Index includes a diverse range of sectors such as apparel, jewelry, beauty, home appliances, food and beverage, and consumer services, with Pop Mart being a significant representative stock [3][11] - Several ETFs have been launched to track these new consumption indices, with the fastest progress seen in the Fuguo Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme ETF, which is currently in subscription [3][4] - The Zhongzheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Index selects 50 liquid and large-cap stocks, with Alibaba and Tencent being the top two weighted stocks, while Pop Mart ranks sixth [3][5] Group 3 - The Zhongzheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Big Consumption Theme Index includes a broader selection of stocks, including pharmaceutical companies, but currently lacks an ETF tracking it [5][6] - The Zhongzheng Hong Kong Stock Connect New Consumption Index focuses on large-cap new consumption companies from the Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Shenzhen markets, with a lower proportion of discretionary consumption compared to other indices [5][6] - The Hang Seng Consumption Index, while not performing as strongly as the new consumption indices, demonstrates stability and defensive characteristics during market volatility, indicating long-term investment opportunities [8][12] Group 4 - The Zhongzheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Leader Index and the Zhongzheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Brand Consumption 50 Index both focus on high-performing companies in the consumption sector, with limited ETF tracking available for these indices [9][10] - Overall, the new consumption sector has shown remarkable performance this year, driven by significant inflows of capital, while traditional consumption indices have lagged behind [11][12] - The articles suggest that for investors optimistic about the new consumption sector, the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Index is the preferred choice due to its high proportion of new consumption companies [12][13]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 8 Jun 2025 香港策略 Hong Kong Strategy 宽幅震荡升级在即，继续回避微盘股和新消费风险 Broad Consolidation About to Intensify; Remain Cautious on Micro-Caps and New Consumer Names 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com jh.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周我们认为当前市场处于宽幅震荡中，回调仍未结束，尤其需要规避短期过热的A股小微盘股及港股新消费板 块。本周一，受中美贸易摩擦影响，恒生指数早盘一度跌近2.7%，恒生科技最多跌3.1%，两者从5月高点分别累计 回撤5.2%、8.9%。这波下跌充分释放了市场对中美贸易不确定性的担忧，因此市场进入宽幅震荡以来 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a cautious approach in the current market environment, suggesting a focus on defensive sectors such as banking due to ongoing tariff negotiations and economic pressures [3][10][12] - It highlights the potential for bond yields to reach new lows, recommending patience in positioning for left-side opportunities, particularly when the 10-year government bond yield approaches 1.7% after a 10 basis point rate cut [3][12] - The report notes a significant recovery in the domestic stock market, driven by short-term high-elasticity targets, with small-cap stocks becoming the core focus for capital [10][12] Group 2 - The report outlines key events impacting the market, including the U.S. tariff increase on steel and aluminum, and the People's Bank of China's liquidity support measures [9][10] - It tracks market performance indicators, noting a rise in average daily trading volume to 12,088.54 billion yuan, indicating increased trading activity and investor interest [22] - The report anticipates continued recovery in U.S. markets, driven by stable earnings from tech giants and a favorable environment during the tariff policy window [13]

Core Insights - The article discusses a shift in investment focus towards late-stage projects, particularly in the consumer sector, driven by the impressive performance of companies like Bubble Mart and others in the Hong Kong IPO market [1][10][11] - There is a growing interest in the "IP economy" and collectible toy projects, as they offer high margins and strong cash flow, appealing to late-stage investors seeking stability [2][3] - The investment landscape is evolving, with a notable shift from early-stage investments to more mature, revenue-generating projects due to the challenges faced in early-stage financing [3][6] Investment Trends - The Hong Kong IPO market has seen a significant increase in fundraising, with over 760 billion HKD raised since 2025, marking a sevenfold increase compared to the previous year [1][10] - Consumer companies are leading the charge in IPOs, with a 71% year-on-year increase in the number of consumer IPOs and total fundraising exceeding 20 billion HKD [10] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for consumer stocks in Hong Kong has surged from 15 to 40 times, indicating a revaluation of consumer brands [10][11] Investment Strategy Adjustments - Investors are increasingly cautious about early-stage projects due to long R&D cycles and valuation bubbles, prompting a shift towards late-stage investments with stable revenue [3][6] - The average exit period for early-stage projects has extended from 5 to 8 years, while late-stage projects offer more stable internal rates of return (IRR) through mechanisms like preferred liquidation rights [8] - The current investment strategy emphasizes the importance of cash reserves and financial health, particularly in a cooling market environment [7][8] Market Dynamics - The article highlights a resurgence in the IPO market, particularly for consumer companies, which is expected to drive further interest in late-stage investments [10][11] - The trend of investing in late-stage projects is supported by a more rational valuation environment following the previous market bubble, with a focus on companies that can achieve quick listings [11] - The regulatory environment is also becoming more favorable, with measures introduced to ease liquidity pressures for private equity funds [11] Conclusion - The investment landscape is characterized by a dual approach, with firms pursuing both early and late-stage opportunities, reflecting a strategic balance in response to market conditions [13]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong stocks have significantly outperformed A-shares this year, reflecting the attractiveness of scarce assets in a weak macroeconomic environment, similar to the rise of Hong Kong stocks during the mobile internet wave from 2012 to 2014 [1][3][5] Performance Comparison - Since the beginning of the year, the Hang Seng Index has increased by 19%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 21 percentage points. Key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, technology, and consumer goods have shown even greater gains, with pharmaceuticals outperforming A-shares by 29 percentage points [4][10] - The performance of Hong Kong stocks can be divided into two phases: the first quarter saw a surge in technology stocks driven by AI applications, while the consumer sector has shown strong performance since April, with notable stocks reaching historical highs [4][10] Scarcity of Assets - The outperformance of Hong Kong stocks is attributed to the unique advantages of certain assets, particularly in the context of AI applications and new consumption trends. Scarce assets are concentrated in sectors such as internet, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and dividends [5][10] - In the internet sector, software services and media account for 55% of the total market capitalization in Hong Kong, compared to only 24% in A-shares, highlighting the concentration of major internet players like Tencent and Alibaba in the Hong Kong market [10][11] - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong has over 60% market capitalization in retail and consumer services, while A-shares only account for about 10%. This is driven by the presence of major e-commerce players like Meituan and JD.com in Hong Kong [11] - In the pharmaceutical sector, biotechnology and medical technology account for 40% of the market capitalization in Hong Kong, compared to 24% in A-shares, indicating a higher level of innovation in Hong Kong stocks [12] Future Outlook - The recovery of the fundamental and funding environment is expected to drive further upward movement in Hong Kong stocks. Positive factors are accumulating, including a more proactive policy stance and increased foreign investment in Chinese assets [21][22] - The Hang Seng Technology Index is particularly noteworthy, with a current PE ratio of 20.7, indicating a favorable valuation compared to global standards. This sector is expected to benefit from the ongoing AI-driven industrial transformation [22]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the investment strategy focusing on the "smile curve" in the consumer sector, with attention on mass consumer goods represented by soft drinks on the left end and new consumption trends on the right end [1] - The current A-share market is transitioning from the technology growth phase to the domestic consumption phase, with significant movements in sectors such as banking, technology, and consumer goods [1] - The Hong Kong market has seen a rise in new consumption stocks characterized by a "self-indulgent" attribute, driven by themes of technological advancement and growth opportunities [1] Group 2 - The report identifies sectors with strong industry barriers under the current uncertain overseas trade environment, including chemical raw materials, biomedicine, and electronic chemicals, which have shown resilience during trade tensions [2] - There is a notable increase in merger and acquisition activities, with nearly 2,500 announcements in the first five months, particularly in emerging industries like machinery, electronics, and biomedicine [2] - The report suggests that domestic high-end manufacturing and innovative pharmaceuticals are likely to benefit from synergistic effects through industry consolidation [2] Group 3 - The report highlights a mixed economic outlook in the U.S., with inflation pressures easing but consumer confidence under significant strain, indicating potential challenges for future economic growth [3] - The U.S. service sector PMI fell below the growth line, suggesting a "stagflation" scenario that limits the Federal Reserve's ability to ease monetary policy [3] Group 4 - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar, supported by strong fundamentals and a tightening monetary policy environment in Japan [4] - It notes that the Japanese stock market is in a long-term allocation range, but rising interest rates could pressure corporate profits, especially for companies with significant overseas revenue [4] - The report warns of potential upward risks in Japanese government bond yields as the Bank of Japan normalizes its monetary policy [4]

Group 1 - The recent phone call between the two national leaders had a minimal impact on the capital market, with A50 futures only moving from -0.13% to 0.24%, a mere 0.37 percentage points [1] - The A-share market continues to experience narrow fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a four-day cumulative increase of only 1.13%, struggling to surpass the 3400-point mark [3] - Silver has seen significant gains, with the "Guotou Silver LOF" rising by 4.68% today, totaling an 8.2% increase over recent days, while gold ETFs only increased by 1.52% [5] Group 2 - The supply shortage is a key factor driving the rise in silver prices, with the World Platinum Investment Council predicting a 30-ton shortage in the platinum market for 2025, and silver also facing supply issues [6] - The "gold-silver ratio" is undergoing a correction, currently at 92.7, indicating that silver may offer better value compared to gold at this time [7] - There are limited investment options for silver, with the "Guotou Silver LOF" underperforming its benchmark, and trading silver futures requiring significant capital, making it less accessible for small investors [9] Group 3 - The new consumption sector appears to be facing challenges, with stocks like "Mizuki Ice City" and "Old Peking Gold" experiencing significant declines [11] - The market capitalization of new consumption companies has reached levels that seem unreasonable, with "Bubble Mart" surpassing the combined market cap of major toy companies [13] - Traditional consumption sectors, such as liquor, are also struggling, with the liquor index showing a maximum drawdown of 57.76%, comparable to previous downturns [29] Group 4 - Public fund holdings in the liquor sector have decreased significantly, with the proportion dropping from 8.48% in Q4 2020 to 3.71% in Q1 2023, indicating a shift in investment sentiment [16][17] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the liquor index is 18.87, which is at a level similar to the end of 2018, but the sustainability of this valuation is questioned due to potential future earnings stagnation [23][31] - The liquor index has maintained a dividend yield of 4.2%, suggesting that even with a significant price drop, the yield could remain attractive, raising questions about the likelihood of such a decline [31]

点击图片查看完整路演回放↑↑↑ 6月4日，我们非常荣幸地邀请到了深圳市日斗投资管理有限公司的创始人、董事长王文先生做客私募排排网直播间， 王总深入剖析了当前资本 市场的关键趋势， 从人工智能产业的突破性进展，到港股市场的投资机会，再到消费行业的价值挖掘， 为我们带来了一场精彩纷呈的投资盛 宴。王总特别提到"期待中国股票市场的DeepSeek崛起时刻"，这一新颖比喻引发了广泛共鸣。以下小编整理出来的直播精华片段： （ 点击图片 查看完整直播回放 ） Q：王总，您近期提到"期待中国股票市场的DeepSeek崛起时刻"，这个比喻非常新颖，能否请您解释一下，什么是"DeepSeek崛起时刻"？ （ 点 击蓝字查看完整直播回放 ） 王文：今年春节期间，市场对贸易战的担忧情绪较为浓厚。与此同时，Deepseek公司的崛起改变了市场对中国人工智能产业的认知。此前普遍 认为中国人工智能技术与美国存在十年以上的差距，数字鸿沟难以逾越 。但Deepseek的出现证明中美技术差距远比预期要小，这显著增强了市 场对中国科技实力的信心。 从供给端观察，在A股IPO节奏调整的背景下，港股市场承接了大量内地优质企业的上市需求，为投资者提供 ...