证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 从需求端来看，消费假期效应消退走弱，固投整体下行，出口仍有韧性。 从价格端来看，本周物价边际承压，系统性回升有待需求侧反弹。 ❑ 风险提示 经济结构转型，传统指标对经济的拟合度下降； 地缘政治博弈强度超预期。 经济周周看：本周经济景气度略有回落 ——宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告 核心观点 基于前期报告《经济周周看：整体向上，生产偏强，需求涨跌互现——宏观经济周度 高频前瞻报告》中构建的生产端景气周度跟踪框架，我们进一步编制 GDP 周度高频 景气指数，更好地综合把握经济景气强度及变化方向。 从我们构建的 GDP 周度高频景气指数历史回溯来看，GDP 周度高频景气指数在趋势、 节奏上与月度 GDP 的趋势节奏有较好的拟合度，例如 2024 年二季度的回落、三季度 筑底与四季度的大幅改善得到较好拟合，在拐点上有较好提示。未来随着高频数据质 量的进一步完善，有望更好地拟合周度 GDP，使其在弹性强度上更为准确。 GDP 周度高频景气指数本周（截至 5 月 10 日）为 5.4%，与上周修订值 5.7%略有回 落，或表征经济增长景气有所放缓。我们认为，随着关税冲击，GDP 周 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - US stocks - Standard allocation [36] - European stocks - Overweight [37] - Chinese A - shares - Standard allocation [39] - Hong Kong stocks - Standard allocation [40][42] - Japan - Standard allocation [43] - Indian market - Standard allocation [44] Report's Core View - In April, the global capital market was mainly influenced by Trump's tariff policy. Global stock markets, bond markets, foreign exchange markets, and commodity markets all showed significant fluctuations. Different regions and asset classes had different performances and outlooks due to factors such as economic data, central bank policies, and trade negotiations [34][60][66][69] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Performance in April Stock Markets - Most major global stock markets showed fluctuations in April. The German stock market outperformed other EU markets, while Hong Kong stocks performed poorly. US stocks were volatile, and European stocks first declined and then rebounded [34][35] Bond Markets - In April, the US bond market was volatile, the European bond market rose, and the Chinese bond market continued the "bond bull" market. Different bond indices had different performance trends [60] Foreign Exchange Markets - The US dollar index declined in April, the euro strengthened against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate was weak [66] Commodity Markets - Gold prices reached a record - high in April and then declined, oil prices dropped significantly, and copper prices first rose and then fell [69] 2. Macroeconomic Review US Macroeconomy - In April, the number of new non - farm payrolls in the US exceeded expectations, but the average hourly wage increase was lower than expected. In March, CPI and core CPI were lower than expected. Retail sales in March increased significantly, and the service industry PMI showed mixed performance [8][10][14][16] Chinese Macroeconomy - In the first quarter, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year, CPI decreased slightly, PPI decline slowed down, consumption increased, and imports and exports, industrial added value, and fixed - asset investment all had different performance trends [20][23] 3. Central Bank Policies - In April, the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the cash rate target, the Bank of Canada paused interest rate cuts, and the European Central Bank cut key interest rates [29] 4. Stock Market Views US Stocks - In April, US stocks fluctuated sharply. The reasons for the upgrade from underweight to standard allocation include Trump's softened attitude, strong economic data, and the possibility of repeated trade negotiations [36] European Stocks - European stocks first declined and then rebounded in April. The reasons for the upgrade from standard allocation to overweight include reduced tariff uncertainty, increased European fiscal spending, eased Russia - Ukraine situation, and valuation discounts [37][38] Chinese A - shares - Chinese A - shares first declined and then repaired in April. The reasons for maintaining the standard allocation include the difficulty of trade agreement implementation, mixed economic data, conservative policies, and reasonable valuations [39] Hong Kong Stocks - Hong Kong stocks declined in early April and rebounded in the second half of the month. The reasons for maintaining the standard allocation include the difficulty of implementing the Sino - US trade agreement and the support of capital inflows [42] Japanese Stocks - Japanese stocks first declined and then rose in April. The reasons for maintaining the standard allocation include the progress of trade negotiations, the cautious policy of the Bank of Japan, and the existence of arbitrage space [43] Indian Market - The Indian market performed strongly in April. The reasons for the upgrade from underweight to overweight include the high possibility of reaching an agreement with the US, interest rate cuts by the Indian central bank, and the potential to undertake manufacturing transfer [44] 5. Overseas Debt Market Primary Market - In April, the primary market of Chinese overseas debt issued about $119.35 billion, with a net increase of about - $93.42 billion. The Chinese Ministry of Finance successfully issued RMB green sovereign bonds in London [50] Secondary Market - As of April 30, 2025, the Markit iBoxx Chinese US dollar investment - grade bond index and high - yield bond index both rose slightly [53] 6. Selected Funds - The report selects funds based on different asset classes and geographical locations, using criteria such as historical performance, expense ratio, and risk for different types of funds [73][74][75]

5月11日，从市发展改革委获悉，今年以来，长沙打响环境优化提升攻坚战，实施市场准入提能、保障 支撑提效、法治护航提档、政务效能提标、涉企服务提质5大行动30项具体改革举措，积极营造产业友 好型、企业友好型、企业家友好型营商环境生态，持续擦亮"低成本创业，高品质生活"金字招牌。截至 3月，全市实有经营主体192.3万户、同比增长6.9%，其中企业75.9万户、同比增长8.9%，增速均居中部 省会城市第二。今年一季度，全市新设经营主体7.3万户，其中企业2.8万户，同比分别增长21.7%、 8.5%。 审批资料"厚"变"薄" 今年一开年，长沙便举办2025长沙市首届名优工业品供需对接会暨"共享计划"新春嘉年华活动，促进产 销对接，畅通企业供需渠道。三天时间里，近200家长沙本土品牌企业参会，超1000款优质产品亮相， 累计吸引线上线下参观总人数10万人次，线上线下销售、签约和达成意向签约的成交额超过3000万元， 让消费者得到了实惠，企业收获了订单，市场增加了活力。 企业省钱省时更省心 "本来打算用两个月时间编制环评报告文本和送审，没想到这次只需要填一张表，就把手续办完了。"近 日，长沙仁毅机械制造有限公司相关负 ...

2025 年以来，黄金与美股的走势呈现出显著的分化与联动特征，两者的博弈背后折射出全球经济秩序的深刻变迁。黄金在突破 3500 美元 / 盎司后剧烈震 荡，而美股则在关税冲击与衰退预期中艰难前行，这种分化既是短期情绪的宣泄，更是长期结构性矛盾的集中爆发。 近期黄金市场的剧烈波动，本质上是多重力量角力的结果。4 月国际金价突破 3500 美元 / 盎司后，5 月出现 7% 的回调，但随后又迅速反弹至 3380 美元， 显示多空博弈的白热化。这种波动背后存在三重逻辑： 中东局势升级、俄乌冲突延宕以及特朗普政府对华加征 145% 关税的政策落地，使得全球供应链面临重构压力。黄金作为传统避险资产，在不确定性中成为 资金的 "避风港"。例如，特朗普关税政策落地后，金价一度跳升，尽管后续政策有所调整，但黄金的避险属性已被市场重新定价。 1. 关税政策的反噬效应 特朗普的 "对等关税" 政策导致美国进口成本上升，企业盈利承压。经济学家警告，若政策持续，2025年美国 GDP 可能下降 4%，陷入技术性衰退。零售 业、休闲酒店业就业数据转弱，显示关税已对实体经济造成实质性冲击。与此同时，美国消费者信心指数降至 52.2，未来 ...

宏观 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 12 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈江月 执业证书：S1030520060001 电话：0755-83199599-9055 邮箱：chenjy@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 单位（%） 2409E 24E GDP（Q3E） CPI PPI 中美谈判启动带动市场乐观预期 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报（5 月第 2 周） [Table_S 核心观点： ummary] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 经济预测（一致预期） 工业增加值增速 固定投资增速 社消增速 出口增速 进口增速 M2 增速 社融增速 数据来源：万得资讯 1) 权益：上周市场放量上涨。关税动态方面，五一假期期间， 中美谈判现乐观预期，带动市场放量上涨。5 月 10 日，中美 经贸高层会谈开始在瑞士日内瓦开始举行，预计后续陆续取得 进展，但谈判进程预计较为缓慢，二季度关税对外需影响仍然 ...

// 市场要闻 // 中国人民银行5月7日宣布， 自5月15日起，下调金融机构存款准备金率0.5个百分点 （不含已执行5%存款准备金率的金融机构），下调汽车金融公司和金 融租赁公司存款准备金率5个百分点。 超30万亿元公募基金行业迎来系统性改革。 证监会发布《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》，从优化主动权益类基金收费模式、完善行业考核机制、 大力发展权益类基金等方面发力，引导公募基金真正从"重规模"向"重回报"转变。方案明确，推行基于业绩比较基准的浮动收费模式，全面建立以基金投 资收益为核心的考核体系。 外交部发言人宣布，应瑞士政府邀请，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理 何立峰将于5月9日至12日访问瑞士，与瑞士领导人及有关方面举行会谈 。访 瑞期间，何立峰副总理作为中美经贸中方牵头人，将与美方牵头人美国财政部长贝森特举行会谈。5月12日至16日，何立峰副总理将赴法国与法方共同主 持第十次中法高级别经济财金对话。 2025世界机器人大会将于8月8日至8月12日在北京举办 ，拟邀请宇树科技、众擎等国内领军企业，全力邀请特斯拉等国际企业。同期，还将举办2025世界 人形机器人运动会，这是全球首个为人形机器人组织的 ...

海关总署官网显示，据海关统计，2025年前4个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值14.14万亿元人民币，同比 增长2.4%。其中，出口8.39万亿元，增长7.5%。4月份，我国货物贸易进出口总值3.84万亿元，增长 5.6%。其中，出口2.27万亿元，增长9.3%。 近年来，国际贸易环境错综复杂，记者从多家深市上市公司获悉，凭借丰富的经验和灵活的策略，深市 企业积极应对、主动调整，主动开拓国际市场，用自主创新打造产品硬核竞争力。 宁德时代今年一季度在欧洲市场动力电池销量实现同比增长。其在欧洲动力市场份额从2021年的17%提 升至2024年的38%，排名第一，今年以来市场份额仍在提升，持续拉开与第二名的差距。 美的集团今年一季度空调、冰箱、洗衣机外销分别增长20%、15%、10%，延续高增长态势。此外，公 司海外布局加快，海外电商销售同比增长超50%。 海外市场也已成为徐工机械（000425）发展的重要增长点。2022年至2024年，徐工机械实现了境外收入 占营业收入比重由29.67%到45.48%的跳跃式增长。今年第一季度，公司实现营业收入268.15亿元，同比 增长10.92%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润20 ...

Core Insights - Jiangsu province is focusing on strengthening key industry projects and promoting the construction of major projects to expand effective investment in manufacturing and infrastructure [1][2] - In the first quarter, there were 2,922 fixed asset investment projects over 1 billion yuan, with an investment amount increasing by 6.5% year-on-year, contributing 2.0 percentage points to overall investment growth [1][2] Investment Trends - The investment structure shows an increase in the proportion of secondary industry investments, which rose by 4.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the primary industry remained stable and the tertiary industry saw a decrease [1] - The investment in the manufacturing sector grew by 6.1% year-on-year, contributing 5.7 percentage points to industrial investment growth and 2.7 percentage points to overall investment growth [1] Sector Performance - Significant growth was observed in specific sectors: the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry increased by 74.8%, automotive manufacturing by 41.9%, and specialized equipment manufacturing by 33.7% [1] - Infrastructure investment also maintained a strong growth rate of 8.3% year-on-year, with notable increases in electricity and heat production (71.2%), water conservancy management (35.0%), and water transport (33.5%) [2] Strategic Recommendations - The Jiangsu province's financial research institute suggests that future planning should focus on attracting and reserving investment projects that are dynamic, have high potential, and yield significant benefits to ensure stable and sustainable investment growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - Under the dual policy support, state-owned sector investment growth reached 6.5%, with actual growth estimated to exceed 8% after price factors are deducted, significantly supporting investment growth and the economic foundation amid declining real estate development investment and stagnant private investment [1][3][4]. Investment Trends - In Q1 2025, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 103,174 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. After accounting for a 2.3% decline in PPI, the actual growth rate of fixed asset investment was approximately 6.5%, surpassing GDP growth by about 1 percentage point [4][5]. - Private fixed asset investment grew by only 0.4% in Q1 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of minimal growth since 2022. Manufacturing private investment increased by 9.7%, while infrastructure private investment rose by 9.3% [2][7]. Sector Analysis - The first industry saw an investment of 2,081 billion yuan, growing by 16.0%, while the second industry investment was 36,141 billion yuan, increasing by 11.9%. The third industry investment was 64,952 billion yuan, with a marginal growth of 0.1%, indicating a significant decline in private investment in real estate [8][13]. - The decline in real estate development investment, which fell by 9.9% in Q1 2025, has heavily impacted private investment growth, with estimates suggesting that the decline in private real estate investment is even more pronounced [2][22]. Regional Investment Performance - Investment growth varied by region, with the northeastern region showing a growth of 9.7%, primarily driven by state-owned sector investment. The eastern region grew by 2.2%, while the central and western regions saw growth rates of 5.5% and 6.2%, respectively [9][20]. Legislative Impact - The passing of the "Private Economy Promotion Law" on April 30, 2025, aims to support private economic organizations in participating in major national strategies and projects, potentially leading to a rebound in private investment as the real estate market stabilizes [3][21].

Group 1: CPI Inflation - The CPI inflation for April is -0.1% year-on-year, which is in line with the previous value and higher than market expectations of -0.3% [1] - Core CPI inflation remains stable, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, while year-on-year it holds steady at 0.5% [8] - Food prices have turned from decline to increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.2% and a year-on-year decline narrowing by 1.2 percentage points to 0.2% [5][6] Group 2: PPI Inflation - The PPI inflation for April is -2.7% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and -0.4% month-on-month, which is weaker than the historical average since 2017 [12] - The decline in PPI inflation is primarily due to tariff impacts, with energy prices being suppressed and some industries facing export obstacles [15] - New momentum industries show resilience, with prices in sectors like computer and electronic equipment manufacturing improving [15] Group 3: Forward Outlook - Looking ahead, the implementation of a package of financial policies on May 7 is expected to support consumption and stabilize the real estate market, potentially leading to a stabilization and gradual recovery of core CPI inflation [11] - The PPI inflation is projected to face downward pressure due to ongoing tariff uncertainties, but the recent financial policies may alleviate some of this pressure [20] - The expected CPI inflation midpoint for Q2 is around 0.2%, while the annual midpoint is projected at 0.4%; for PPI, the Q2 midpoint may drop to around -2.5%, with an annual midpoint of -2.4% [21]