Group 1: Report Overview - The report provides a weekly strategy for crude oil and polyester, covering views, logic, strategies, etc. [2] Group 2: Crude Oil Analysis Views - Long - term central price moves down, short - term price rebounds. Tariff easing may keep oil prices stable, with current spot demand being fair. The structure remains strong, refinery profits rebound, inventory continues to decline, and there is still support for oil prices. Short - term prices will fluctuate within a narrow range. However, over - planned production increases in countries like Kazakhstan may lead to higher - than - expected supply recovery. If demand drops later, it may pressure the market. [2] Logic - Supply increases from Kazakhstan and others will be faster than planned, and if demand weakens again, it will impact the market. [2] Strategy - Short - term long and long - term short [2] Market Conditions - The supply - demand level remains high, the monthly spread is at the highest level since the end of January, and the spot discount is neutral. [4] - U.S. refinery feedstock has increased slightly. As seasonal maintenance nears the end, feedstock demand has risen to a five - year high, inventory levels are low, and refined oil inventory is continuously decreasing. [12][13] - Refining profits have rebounded significantly recently, especially in the U.S. Gulf and Asia - Pacific regions. Spot trading has recovered, and the discount is reasonable. [19] - Refined oil demand exceeds expectations, gasoline and diesel inventories have decreased significantly, and overall inventory pressure is moderate, supporting a bottom - up price rebound. [22] Group 3: Polyester Analysis Views - In the short term, it will fluctuate at a low level. Downstream production remains high, but terminal production has further declined. Although there is some short - term restocking, finished product inventory is still high. Negative feedback may spread downstream. PTA prices may have a short - term small rebound due to inventory reduction, but downstream conditions may limit the upside. Ethylene glycol will continue to fluctuate weakly. [2] Logic - Negative feedback is emerging, downstream inventory pressure is increasing, and raw material inventory in downstream factories has accumulated significantly. The probability of normalizing ethane imports increases, reducing the possibility of some ethylene glycol import - raw - material device shutdowns. Port and factory inventory reduction is slow, and the obvious inventory reduction time for ethylene glycol will be postponed. [2] Strategy - Wait for low - buying opportunities [2] Market Conditions - The increase in polyester products is significantly lower than that of crude oil. After the crude oil price rebounded, the PX price increased slightly, and the PXN spread remained at around $170. The outer - market price rose to $752. PTA total inventory decreased slightly, port basis weakened slightly, but warehouse receipts decreased significantly. [27] - Due to the decrease in profit transfer influence, PTA supply decreased, and ethylene glycol production increased. PTA maintenance is frequent, and production remains low. Ethylene glycol production has increased due to potential stable oil - based supply and increased coal - based production. [33][37] - Terminal orders remain at a low level, with only Southeast Asian re - export orders being fair. Direct U.S. - related orders are almost stagnant, new orders are scarce, and terminal production has further declined. [40] - Downstream production remains at a high level. Although it has decreased month - on - month, it still reaches 93.6%. However, downstream profits are extremely low, inventory pressure is increasing, and the side - effects of high production are emerging. [47] - Downstream inventory continues to accumulate. After the easing of tariff concerns, there is some restocking intention, but the inventory reduction of FDY and DTY is limited, and inventory remains extremely high. [50] - Downstream profits continue to decline, and the sustainability of high - level production is questionable. The market has started to price in downstream inventory pressure, and polyester product prices will fluctuate at a low level. [57]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a polyester data weekly report from Guotai Junan Futures, dated April 27, 2025 [1][2] - The core view is not to chase high prices and pay attention to position control before the holiday [3] Group 2: PX Analysis Valuation - PX valuation structure changed from C to B, with the near - end strengthening under the de - stocking pattern and the month - spread rebounding due to tariff relaxation [16] - PXN rebounded from a low level, and the internal and external price difference declined while the aromatic hydrocarbon price rebounded [18][24] - The octane number remained stable, and the MX export demand was strong. The MX isomerization unit was in loss during the oil product demand peak season [31][43] - The US exempted tariffs on MX, but high tariffs on pure benzene, PX, and toluene remained. Attention should be paid to the export rush demand during the exemption period [53] Supply and Demand - Zhejiang Petrochemical's PX unit restarted after maintenance. In March, China's PX output was 3.25 million tons, and the weekly operating rate was 73.2% (+0.2%) [59] - Many domestic and overseas PX units had maintenance plans. The Asian PX operating rate dropped to 68.6% [3][70] - The US increased tariffs on Japan and South Korea, which might affect PX logistics. In March 2025, PX imports reached 847,000 tons [69][70] Inventory - In March, the monthly PX inventory was 4.68 million tons, and the balance sheet showed a de - stocking of about 200,000 - 300,000 tons in April [75] Group 3: PTA Analysis Valuation - Morgan Qiankun's PTA short - position remained. The total net short position of Morgan Qiankun's seat was 225,000 lots (+20,000 lots) this week [81][83] - Due to concentrated PTA factory maintenance, the basis and month - spread jumped. The processing fee rebounded month - on - month [85][97] Supply and Demand - The PTA operating rate rebounded this week and will decline next week. In 2025, the cumulative PTA output from January to March was 17.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [98][102] - PTA exports remained at about 300,000 tons per month, and the inventory decreased to 2.69 million tons (-210,000 tons) [105][119] Group 4: Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Analysis Capacity - From 2023 - 2025, there were new domestic MEG units. In 2025, the new MEG capacity growth rate was 6%, with limited increments [129][132] Valuation - The MEG single - side price rebounded from the bottom. The 05 - contract long - position took delivery, and the basis long - spread positions were cut in a concentrated manner [133] - Ethylene oxide entered the peak season, and its price was seasonally stronger than that of MEG. The ethane tariff exemption would lead to a resurgence in supply [137][140] Supply and Demand - The coal - based MEG unit load increased significantly, and the operating rate will decline in May. This week, the MEG load was 68.4% (+3.1%), and the coal - based load was 63.8% (+14%) [145][146] - Due to relaxed tariff policies, MEG imports continued to rise in April and May. The port de - stocking was not significant [149][168] Group 5: Polyester Analysis Operating Rate - The polyester operating rate was 93.9% (+0.5%). The bottle - chip load increased to 90.8%, the filament load decreased to 82.8% (-3.1%), and the short - fiber load increased to 91.3% (+2.4%) [172][177] Output - From January to March, the weekly average polyester output was 1.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [178]

能源化工 聚酯日报 通惠期货研发产品系列 2025 年 4 月 25 日 星期五 成本端油价存在技术面修复，利空情绪出尽后 PX、PTA 或上行 昨日，短纤主力合约PF2506收6028元/吨，较前一交易日下跌1.05%。 华东市场主流价为 6280 元/吨，较前一日下跌 20 元/吨，基差为 262 元/ 吨。国内涤纶短纤产量在 16.31 万吨左右，较上周总量上涨 1.19%。本周 涤纶短纤行业开工 82.11%，较上周开工上涨 0.96%。国内终端织造平均 订单天数约为 8.66 天，较上周减少 0.3 天。 通惠期货研发部 一、日度市场总结 1. PX & PTA 昨日，PX主力合约PX2509收6166元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.93%， 基差为-231 元/吨。PTA 主力合约 PTA2509 收 4370 元/吨，较前一交易日 下跌 0.86%,基差为-10 元/吨。 成本端，特朗普称对中国关税将会大幅下降，市场担忧情绪缓解。 WTI 原油主力收 62.77 美元/桶，布油收 65.6 美元/桶。供应端，PX：盛 虹炼化 400 万吨装置 4 月有重整计划，预计 PX 降负荷，扬子石化重整检 修 ...

PTA现货价格 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 - MEG内盘 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 5000 700 6200 500 4000 5200 300 100 4200 3000 -100 3200 -300 2000 2023-01 2023-05 2023-09 2024-01 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 2024-10 2024-12 2024-04 2024-06 2024-08 2025-02 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 ·DTY现金流 FDY现金流 800 涤短现金流 切片现金流 600 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 01 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2023-01 2023-05 2023-09 2024-01 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 -800 免责声 报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何 保证。本 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's tariff policy leads to a sharp decline in international oil prices, and the possibility of trade - war escalation due to tariff issues will continue to impact the commodity market. The overall valuation of PX and PTA has declined, and the negative feedback in the industrial chain may continue to play a role. The short - term industry situation of polyester is severe, and it is necessary to pay attention to the internal structural opportunities in the industrial chain and the tariff negotiation trends of various countries [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section in the Report 1. Daily Market Summary PX & PTA - PX main contract PX2505 closed at 6392 yuan/ton, down 5.89% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 71 yuan/ton. PTA main contract PTA2505 closed at 4550 yuan/ton, down 5.25% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 0 yuan/ton [1] - Cost - end: Trump's tariff policy led to a sharp decline in international oil prices. WTI crude oil main contract closed at 60.96 dollars/barrel, and Brent oil closed at 64.36 dollars/barrel. Supply - end: Multiple PX and PTA plants have maintenance plans, with PX domestic device operating rate at 77.8% and Asian operating rate at 72.5%, and PTA operating rate around 86.1%. Polyester operating rate is around 93.2%. Demand - end: The total transaction volume of Light Textile City is 750 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction is 863.87 million meters [2] Polyester - The short - fiber main contract PF2505 closed at 6154 yuan/ton, down 5.06% from the previous trading day. The mainstream price in the East China market is 6560 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 306 yuan/ton. Some short - fiber production capacities have reduction plans, and the supply - end pressure is expected to be greatly reduced. The restart of bottle - chip maintenance devices has increased the operating rate by 2.88% to 75.26%, and the supply - end is under pressure [4] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - The prices of PX, PTA, and short - fiber futures and some spot prices have declined to varying degrees, and there are also corresponding changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, and other indicators. The prices of some products in the industrial chain such as Brent oil, US crude oil, and ethylene glycol have also changed, and the processing spreads of some products have increased significantly [6][7] 3. Industrial Dynamics Macro Dynamics - The US consumer confidence index dropped to the lowest in more than four years in March. China has launched a series of counter - measures against the US "reciprocal tariff" policy, including imposing a 34% tariff on all US products and implementing export controls on some rare earths [9] Industry Dynamics - Toray announced that it will stop producing PTA in Japan in 2026 and will turn to external procurement [10] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to the industrial chain, including PX and PTA futures and basis, spot prices, operating rates, monthly spreads, processing fees, production benefits, load rates, trading volume, and inventory days [12][14][15]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In January and February 2025, the import and export data of the polyester chain showed differentiation. PTA and polyester exports had a good start, with cumulative exports increasing by 14.9% and 16.9% year - on - year respectively. On the import side, PX imports shrank, with a 16.4% year - on - year decline in cumulative imports from January to February, while ethylene glycol imports exceeded expectations, with a 37.5% increase in cumulative imports. After the "rush to export" in the textile and clothing market ended, the export scale contracted [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX Import - PX imports contracted, with cumulative imports from January to February down 16.4% year - on - year. In January, China imported 70.9 tons of PX, a single - month year - on - year decrease of 18.3%, and in February, it imported 68.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.4%. From the perspective of import sources, Brunei surpassed Taiwan, China to become one of the top three import sources [6][9]. PTA Export - PTA exports in February increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year, and cumulative exports in the first two months grew steadily. In January and February, PTA exports were 27.2 and 38.3 tons respectively, with a year - on - year decrease of 22.3% in January and an increase of 74% in February. Cumulative exports from January to February 2025 were 65.5 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.9%. The top five export destinations from January to February were Oman, Vietnam, Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey. The top five export provinces were Jiangsu, Fujian, Shandong, Liaoning, and Guangdong [3]. EG Import - EG imports exceeded expectations and increased significantly, with cumulative imports from January to February up 37.5% year - on - year. In January and February, EG imports were 67.7 and 59.4 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 33.4% and 42.4%. Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Canada were still the main import sources [6][15]. Polyester Export - Polyester exports continued to perform excellently, with all categories maintaining rapid growth. Cumulative polyester exports from January to February were 210.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.9%. Among them, bottle chips, filaments, staple fibers, polyester films, and slices all had varying degrees of year - on - year growth. The top five export destinations were Vietnam, Indonesia, Pakistan, South Korea, and India. Exports were concentrated in Zhejiang and Jiangsu [4][5]. Textile and Clothing Export - After the "rush to export" ended, textile and clothing exports contracted. Cumulative textile and clothing exports from January to February were $42.88 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. In February, textile and clothing exports were poor, dragging down the cumulative export growth rate from January to February [3][36].

以下文章来源于大地期货研究院 ，作者大地期货研究院 大地期货研究院 . 大地期货研究院官方订阅号 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 核心观点 PX供应仍然依赖进口 2025年1-2月我国累计进口PX数量为139.4万吨，同比下降16.39%。2024年我国PX总进口量为938.13万吨，对外依存度19.76%，同比 增加3.13%。进入2025年，我国PX对外依存度为17.69%，相对2024年继续下降。 文 | 蒋硕朋 许安静 来源 | 大地期货研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 2025 年 1-2 月，我国 PX 进口量同比增加，对外依存度继续下降。但考虑到今年国内 PX 整体投产量仍然为零，此外国内 PX 装 置开工负荷继续提升空间较为有限， PTA 投产所需 PX 增量将主要来自于进口，国内 PX 对外依存下降趋势难以持续。 2025年1-2月，我国PTA对土耳其出口占比显著下滑，由于我国PTA出口结构相对分散，对单一国家依赖程度较低，因此土耳其装 置投产对我国PTA出口中长期的影响较为有限，今年我国PTA出口仍然可以维持一定的增量预期。 2025年前两个月我国乙二醇进口来源中，美国占比仍然达 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" based on the performance of the industry index relative to the benchmark [98]. Core Insights - The report indicates a slight improvement in the inquiry atmosphere for certain long filament products, leading to a marginal increase in profitability [1]. - The Brent crude oil average price for the week ending March 14, 2025, was $69.83 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 1.25% from the previous week [1][2]. - Domestic and international refining project price differentials have shown a decline, with domestic key refining project price differential at 2413.42 CNY/ton, down 1.37% week-on-week [2]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The international oil price experienced fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. tariff policies, with Brent and WTI prices at $70.58 and $67.18 per barrel respectively as of March 14, 2025 [1][11]. - Domestic refined oil prices have decreased across the board, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 7188.00 CNY/ton, 8340.14 CNY/ton, and 6259.87 CNY/ton respectively [11]. Chemical Sector - The overall average price of chemical products has declined, with polyethylene prices slightly down and polypropylene prices increasing for some products [1][38]. - The price of pure benzene has dropped significantly due to reduced downstream demand, averaging 7135.71 CNY/ton [43]. - Styrene prices continue to fall under pressure from high inventory levels and weak demand, averaging 8150.00 CNY/ton [43]. Polyester Sector - The prices of polyester raw materials have continued to decline, with some long filament products showing slight improvements in profitability [1][56]. - The average price of PTA has decreased to 4785.71 CNY/ton, with an average net profit of -168.80 CNY/ton [64]. - The inquiry atmosphere for spring and summer lightweight fabrics has improved, although overall order volumes have not seen significant increases [63]. Market Performance of Major Refining Companies - As of March 14, 2025, the stock price changes for six major private refining companies were mixed, with Rongsheng Petrochemical down 0.23% and Hengli Petrochemical up 0.06% over the past week [83][84]. - The overall performance of the refining index has increased by 22.42% since September 4, 2017, outperforming the oil and petrochemical industry index [86].