Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The caustic soda supply and demand are in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The market has different views on the export benefits, and the decline of the 05 contract has led to a partial convergence of the basis. In the short term, SH2605 is expected to fluctuate due to news - related disturbances, with the daily K - line focusing on the support near 2300 and the pressure near 2590 [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2442 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan; the futures holding volume is 204,913 lots, up 361 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is 3039 lots, up 3056 lots; the futures trading volume is 603,191 lots, down 123,738 lots; the closing price of the January contract is 2487 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2442 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan [3] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 685 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; in Jiangsu is 850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2141 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the basis is - 301 yuan/ton, up 91 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 227.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of steam coal is 642 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 1 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu is 100 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,040 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 2680 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [3] Industry News - From March 6th to 12th, the average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above in China was 85.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. From March 7th to 13th, the alumina operating rate increased by 0.10% month - on - month to 82.72%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 0.05% month - on - month to 90.14%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased by 7.69% month - on - month to 50.15%. As of March 11th, the factory inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 534,200 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 3.86% and a year - on - year increase of 19.15%. From March 5th to 12th, the weekly average gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 205 yuan/ton [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The supply - side inventory remains high and the elimination of old chickens is slow, with overall sufficient supply However, with the full resumption of schools and factories, the pre - Qingming Festival stocking has started in advance, significantly boosting the demand in the off - season The feed cost has risen, and the breeding side is reluctant to sell and holds up prices, leading to a rebound in the spot price This further weakens the expectation of a decline in laying - hen inventory In terms of the futures market, eggs maintain a volatile trend, and short - term participation is recommended [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 3400 yuan/500 kilograms, with a month - on - month increase of 18 The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 573 hands, a significant increase of 4995 hands The egg futures spread between May and September is - 406 yuan/500 kilograms, up 46 The futures trading volume of the active contract is 172,504 hands, an increase of 1209 hands The registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 hands, unchanged [2] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of eggs is 3.22 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan The basis (spot - futures) is - 179 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 2 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying - hen inventory index is 109.28 (2015 = 100), down 2.75 The national elimination index of laying hens is 124.98 (2015 = 100), up 23.8 The average price of egg - chicken chicks in the main production areas is 3.5 yuan per chick, unchanged The national new - chick index is 71.99 (2015 = 100), down 21.63 The average price of egg - chicken compound feed is 2.84 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan The breeding profit of egg - chickens is - 0.33 yuan per chicken, up 0.02 yuan The average price of eliminated chickens in the main production areas is 10.4 yuan/kg, up 0.52 yuan The average elimination age of chickens nationwide is 500 days, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 16.18 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.88 yuan/kg, unchanged The average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.29 yuan/kg, up 0.09 yuan The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.17 days, down 0.1 days The weekly inventory in the production link is 1.07 days, down 0.15 days The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 14,898.72 tons, an increase of 1,853.2 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 6,864 tons, a decrease of 440 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong's main production area is 6.34 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 6.13 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan from yesterday; in Guangdong, it is 7.07 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; in Beijing, it is 6.60 yuan/kg, up 0.20 yuan from yesterday [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The apple market has a strong fundamental situation with low cold - storage apple inventory and high costs for May contracts. However, the upward momentum of the May contract is limited due to the high previous prices and upcoming position - limit regulations. The market is expected to shift its focus to the new - season apple production as the key growth period approaches, and the new - season apple is likely to have an increased production. It is recommended to short the October contract on rallies [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Fuji apple price index decreased by 0.15 to 110.41, while the prices of various apple types such as Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remained stable. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits increased by 0.04 to 7.88 [2]. - **Futures Prices**: AP01 rose by 8 to 8630, AP05 increased by 3 to 10121, and AP10 increased by 21 to 8786. The spreads between different contracts also changed, e.g., AP01 - AP05 increased by 5 to - 1491, AP05 - AP10 decreased by 18 to 1335 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 against different contracts decreased, e.g., Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 decreased by 8 to - 630 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views - **Market News**: As of March 12, 2026, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 499.72 million tons, a decrease of 27.81 million tons from the previous week and 24.34 million tons from the same period last year, with a decline of 4.6%. The apple market in the producing areas was stable, with good - quality goods in short supply. The sales in the market were okay, and the mainstream prices were stable. The prices in Shandong and Shaanxi provinces also showed different trends [7]. - **Trading Logic**: Although the apple fundamentals are strong, the upward momentum of the May contract is insufficient. The market will focus on the new - season apple production, and the new - season apple is expected to have an increased production. It is recommended to short the October contract on rallies [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the single - side trading, it is recommended to exit the May contract and short the October contract on rallies. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. 3.3 Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts including the price trends of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 and Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, the basis of AP contracts, the spreads between different AP contracts, the apple arrival volume in some markets, the prices of 6 kinds of fruits, the national cold - storage apple inventory, and the national cold - storage apple outbound volume [10][11][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the daily market data of stock index futures, including the closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, and basis of IM, IF, IC, and IH contracts, as well as the positions of major seats. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs IM Futures - **Daily Market**: The main contract of IM rose 0.8% to close at 8080.4 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 253,973 lots, an increase of 18,433 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 389,812 lots, an increase of 7,740 lots. The main contract was at a discount of 16.19 points, a decrease of 10.33 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -24.38%. The dividend impacts of the four contracts were 0 points, 0.19 points, 38.48 points, and 59.69 points respectively [4][5]. - **Positions of Major Seats**: The report shows the trading volumes, long positions, and short positions of the top 20 seats in IM2603, IM2606, and IM2609 contracts, as well as their changes from the previous day [14][16][17]. IF Futures - **Daily Market**: The main contract of IF rose 0.1% to close at 4651.4 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 141,186 lots, a decrease of 4,859 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 275,425 lots, a decrease of 5,025 lots. The main contract was at a discount of 6.93 points, an increase of 1.71 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -18.13%. The dividend impacts of the four contracts were 0 points, 0.48 points, 29.73 points, and 83.21 points respectively [18][19]. - **Positions of Major Seats**: The report shows the trading volumes, long positions, and short positions of the top 20 seats in IF2603, IF2606, and IF2609 contracts, as well as their changes from the previous day [33][35][36]. IC Futures - **Daily Market**: The main contract of IC rose 0.69% to close at 8086 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 170,100 lots, a decrease of 239 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 296,892 lots, an increase of 2,665 lots. The main contract was at a discount of 10.43 points, an increase of 5.6 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -15.69%. The dividend impacts of the four contracts were 0 points, 6.88 points, 58.86 points, and 95.04 points respectively [38][39]. - **Positions of Major Seats**: The report shows the trading volumes, long positions, and short positions of the top 20 seats in IC2603, IC2606, and IC2609 contracts, as well as their changes from the previous day [53][54][56]. IH Futures - **Daily Market**: The main contract of IH fell 0.35% to close at 2958.6 points. The total trading volume of the four contracts was 54,518 lots, a decrease of 14,623 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 104,462 lots, a decrease of 2,151 lots. The main contract was at a discount of 2.83 points, a decrease of 1.25 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -11.62%. The dividend impacts of the four contracts were 0 points, 0 points, 18.23 points, and 63 points respectively [58][59][60]. - **Positions of Major Seats**: The report shows the trading volumes, long positions, and short positions of the top 20 seats in IH2603, IH2606, and IH2609 contracts, as well as their changes from the previous day [74][76][78].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, styrene, PE, PVC [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Macro finance, treasury bonds, copper, aluminum oxide, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, precious metals, platinum and palladium, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, black metals, soda ash, coke, coking coal, corn, soybean meal, pulp, log, live pigs, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, natural rubber, BR rubber, PTA, ethylene glycol, urea, LPG, container shipping on the European route [1] 2. Core Views - The Middle East conflict continues to impact the market, causing uncertainty in the global capital market and affecting the prices of various commodities [1] - The stock index is expected to continue its oscillating pattern, and is likely to consolidate and resume its upward trend as external inflationary pressures ease and market risk appetite recovers [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand relationships, and policy changes, and most of them are in an oscillating state [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - The stock index is expected to continue oscillating, and long positions can be considered in the medium to long term using the discount advantage of stock index futures, while controlling positions [1] - Treasury bonds are oscillating under the influence of multiple factors such as allocation demand, expectations of monetary policy easing, supply pressure from fiscal stimulus, and profit-taking behavior of trading desks [1] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper prices are under pressure due to the escalation of the Middle East situation and the increase in market risk aversion [1] - Aluminum in the non-ferrous sector is a multi-allocation variety due to supply disruptions in the Middle East and rising energy costs [1] - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term as the implementation plan is unclear and supply remains in excess [1] - Zinc prices are oscillating due to concerns about short-term zinc ore supply and inflation risks [1] - Nickel prices may oscillate due to supply tightness in Indonesia and macro sentiment fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait for low-buying opportunities [1] - Stainless steel futures are oscillating widely, and it is recommended to wait and watch for low-buying opportunities [1] - Tin prices are affected by the macro environment and are highly volatile in the short term [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and silver prices are expected to continue oscillating in the short term as the Middle East geopolitical situation has not been resolved and oil prices may still affect the precious metals market [1] - Platinum and palladium prices are likely to remain oscillating, and the driving force depends on the clarification of the Middle East geopolitical situation [1] Black Metals - Rebar prices are oscillating due to low inventory and weak demand expectations [1] - Hot-rolled coil prices are oscillating, and it is recommended to wait for the next entry opportunity after taking profits on long basis positions [1] - Iron ore prices are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, policy support, and cost, and are oscillating [1] - Manganese silicon prices are oscillating, with short-term supply and demand remaining weak, but geopolitical conflicts, policy support, and cost providing positive factors [1] - Black metals are in a state of weak supply and demand in the short term, with expectations of supply reduction increasing, and cost support due to rising energy prices [1] - Soda ash prices are under pressure in the short term due to geopolitical conflicts and are expected to be more relaxed in the medium term [1] - Coke prices are oscillating, and the coking profit has been repaired, but the market is highly uncertain and depends on geopolitical changes [1] - Coking coal prices have the same logic as coke [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil is bullish due to the tight supply and demand situation in the international market [1] - Soybean oil is expected to rise following the market, and can be considered for short allocation in the oil varieties for hedging [1] - Rapeseed oil is bullish in the short term due to potential positive factors from the US biodiesel policy [1] - Cotton prices are expected to gradually rise in the medium to long term as demand recovers and planting area is reduced [1] - Sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations, with an internal strong and external weak pattern continuing [1] - Corn futures prices are expected to continue oscillating at a high level, with limited downward space in the short term but facing constraints from alternative supply and policy [1] - Soybean meal prices are expected to fluctuate more and are in an oscillating state, and it is recommended to pay attention to international situation changes and the USDA planting intention report [1] - Pulp futures are oscillating in the range of 5200 - 5400 yuan/ton, and the fundamental weakness is difficult to change in the short term [1] - Log futures have large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and watch [1] - Live pig prices are oscillating as demand support and production capacity need further release [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are expected to remain high due to geopolitical factors [1] - Fuel oil prices are affected by the Middle East situation and are oscillating [1] - Asphalt prices are relatively weakly affected in the energy sector, mainly due to the impact of crude oil price transmission [1] - Natural rubber prices are affected by the US-Iran situation, and the prices of BD and BR are rising [1] - BR rubber prices are expected to rise due to factors such as cost support and inventory reduction expectations [1] - PTA prices are affected by geopolitical factors, with tight supply of PX and rapid downstream replenishment [1] - Ethylene glycol prices have risen rapidly due to raw material shortages [1] - Short fiber prices continue to fluctuate closely with costs [1] - Benzene prices are rising due to multiple supply disturbances and strong market buying [1] - Styrene prices are rising strongly due to supply disturbances and tight spot supply [1] - Urea prices have limited upward space due to weak domestic demand but are supported by cost [1] - Methanol prices are affected by the Iranian situation, with high domestic production and inventory [1] - PE prices are affected by geopolitical factors and have a weak fundamental situation [1] - PVC prices are expected to be optimistic in the future due to capacity clearance and raw material shortages [1] - LPG prices are showing a divergence between the internal and external markets, with the FEI - PG showing a背离 [1] Other - Container shipping on the European route is affected by the war situation and the re - takeover of the Red Sea by the Houthi armed forces, and the price increase is generally stable [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in domestic energy and chemical products due to the Middle East situation and highlights the regulatory measures taken by futures exchanges to mitigate market risks [1]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) has intensified the management of actual control relationship accounts, implementing restrictions on opening positions for accounts that exceed trading limits [2]. - As of March 18, the SHFE has issued 9 announcements regarding the imposition of restrictions on opening positions, all related to violations by actual control relationship accounts [4]. - In February, the SHFE processed 83 cases of abnormal trading behavior, including 21 cases of excessive self-dealing and 45 cases of excessive intraday opening volume, with 45 actual control relationship account groups subjected to restrictions [4]. Group 2: Violations in Other Exchanges - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) reported 7 cases of abnormal trading in February, including 4 cases of self-dealing and 3 cases of frequent order cancellations, along with 6 disciplinary actions for violations of self-regulatory rules [5]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) handled 6 cases of abnormal trading in February, all related to excessive self-dealing, and investigated 7 leads on violations, including 5 cases of fund transfer between controlled accounts [5]. - The Guangxi Futures Exchange (GFE) processed 8 cases of abnormal trading in February, including 3 cases of excessive self-dealing, and initiated investigations into 3 leads on violations related to self-dealing affecting contract prices [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of logs has been adjusted downwards to increase sales volume, while the futures price has slightly increased. The supply side is expected to face pressure in the future, but there is still potential for price increases during the peak season. The future price trend is mainly influenced by downstream demand and other fundamental factors [3][4][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Spot prices: The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port remained stable at 770 yuan/cubic meter compared to the previous period, while the price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port decreased. The futures price of the main log contract 2605 rebounded after a decline, closing at 811.5 yuan/cubic meter on March 7 [4] - Foreign quotes and freight rates: In March 2026, the CFR quote range for New Zealand radiata pine logs was 117 - 122 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, a 5 - dollar increase from the previous month. The ocean freight for imported coniferous log bulk carriers from New Zealand to China in late March was 40 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, an 8 - dollar increase from early March, a 25% increase [4] - Expected and actual arrivals: From March 16 - 22, 2026, 15 New Zealand log ships were expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, a 67% increase from the previous week, with a total arrival volume of about 546,000 cubic meters, a 90% increase. From March 9 - 15, 9 New Zealand log ships actually arrived at 13 Chinese ports, a 10% decrease from the previous week, with a total arrival volume of about 287,000 cubic meters, a 25% decrease [4] - Import volume: In February 2026, China imported 3.215 million cubic meters of logs and sawn timber. From January to February, the import volume was 7.503 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. In 2025, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs decreased year - on - year [4] - Departure volume: From February 28 to March 6, 2026, a total of 11 ships with 440,000 cubic meters of logs departed from 12 New Zealand ports, a decrease of 3 ships and 90,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. Among them, 9 ships with 350,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, a decrease of 1 ship and 30,000 cubic meters [4] 3.2 Inventory - Inventory status: As of March 13, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.04 million cubic meters, a decrease of 90,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The radiata pine inventory was 2.43 million cubic meters, a decrease of 80,000 cubic meters; the North American timber inventory was 270,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters; and the spruce/fir inventory was 150,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters [6] - Inventory trend: Before the Spring Festival, inventory shifted from reduction to accumulation, and continued to accumulate during the Spring Festival. The inventory of radiata pine and North American timber increased significantly, but was still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history. The arrival pressure during the Spring Festival was more moderate than in previous years. In March, 14 ships of New Zealand timber were expected to arrive at Taicang Port, about 460,000 cubic meters, a 296% increase from February [6] 3.3 Demand - Outbound volume: From March 9 - 15, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 57,800 cubic meters, a 73.57% increase from the previous week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 28,700 cubic meters, a 20.59% increase; and at Jiangsu ports was 22,400 cubic meters, a 220% increase [6] - Market situation: The outbound volume of logs decreased during the Spring Festival due to the closure of the spot market. With the resumption of work in the market, the outbound volume after the festival has significantly recovered to the normal level. Affected by the port inventory pressure, traders actively reduced prices to promote sales [6] 3.4 Recent News and Outlook - Resource concentration: China's imported radiata pine shows a significant resource concentration, with an increasing proportion from New Zealand. However, the risk of over - relying on a single source is accumulating [7] - Policy impact: The anti - involution policy has a certain indirect boost in the off - season. The downstream products of logs and black futures are affected by the construction and manufacturing industries. The correlation between construction wood and coke is 0.9, and the industrial structure adjustment in the construction industry benefits the log futures market [7] - Customs policy: The General Administration of Customs decided to abolish the suspension of importing US logs. In the short term, the total volume of US logs that can arrive at ports and complete customs clearance will still be limited [7] - Natural disaster: A landslide in New Zealand's North Island may affect local logging operations and cause delays in the shipment of some ships. Currently, the arrival volume in China is still at a low level [7] - Exchange policy: The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the designated vehicle - board delivery locations for logs, suspending the delivery business at some locations [7] - Geopolitical situation: The Iran situation has indirectly increased the global geopolitical risk index. Although New Zealand log shipping is not directly involved in the Iran route, it may indirectly affect the global transportation efficiency of New Zealand logs and increase the shipping cost [7] 3.5 Strategies and Suggestions - Risk factors: Geopolitical news, tariff news, changes in foreign quotes, and changes in ocean freight rates [9] - Market trend in 2025: In the second half of 2025, the near - and far - month trends of log futures diverged significantly. The 2511 contract declined rapidly after the peak season, while the 2601 contract initially maintained a strong shock. The price difference structure became more differentiated [9] - Market situation around the Spring Festival in 2026: Before the Spring Festival, the demand showed a north - south differentiation. In Jiangsu, the supply shortage was gradually alleviated, and the price increase trend may slow down; in Shandong, the demand was stable. During the Spring Festival, the outbound volume decreased significantly, and the inventory pressure was more moderate than in previous years [9] - Post - festival market: After the Spring Festival, the main contract was switched to 2605. The price of the main log futures contract rose continuously, breaking through the short - term high of 804. The price increase was due to the increase in costs such as ocean freight and foreign quotes under the influence of the US - Iran geopolitical situation, as well as the positive demand expectation after the market resumed work [9] - Future outlook: The current main contract 2605 rebounded after a decline. Although the orders for construction timber have not recovered well, there is still a positive expectation in the market. In the short term, the price may remain stable. In the future, the price trend is mainly influenced by downstream demand. There is still room for price increases during the peak season [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, geopolitical games and oil price changes may continue to affect precious metal prices, with the trend likely to remain range - bound. The focus should be on Middle - East geopolitical developments, oil price trends, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week. The "oil price increase + rising inflation expectations + weakening rate - cut expectations" trading narrative may be gradually digested by the market. Given high global geopolitical uncertainty, the room for a significant decline in precious metal prices is relatively limited. In the long - term, with the probability of Fed rate cuts this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainty, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, and the center of precious metal prices still has room to rise. Long - term strategies can consider gradually allocating long positions on dips recently [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On March 17, 2026, London gold spot was at $5011.82/ounce, London silver spot at $80.73/ounce, COMEX gold at $5015.80/ounce, COMEX silver at $80.89/ounce, AU2604 at 1116.20 yuan/gram, AG2604 at 20371.00 yuan/kg, AU (T + D) at 1114.70 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) at 20238.00 yuan/kg. Compared with March 16, the price of London silver spot rose 0.7%, COMEX silver rose 0.8%, AU2604 fell 0.2%, and AU (T + D) fell 0.2% [3] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: On March 17, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 1.5 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 133 yuan/kg, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was 3.51 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was 10 yuan/kg, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 54.79, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 62.01. Compared with March 16, the gold TD - SHFE active spread rose 11.9%, the silver TD - SHFE active spread fell 16.9%, the gold internal - external spread fell 11.5%, and the silver internal - external spread fell 90.0% [3] 2. Position Data - As of March 16, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1070.71 tons, the silver ETF - SLV was 15355.94899 tons. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold were 215445 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 52313 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions were 163132 contracts. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver were 33306 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 8728 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions were 24578 contracts. Compared with March 13, the gold ETF - SPDR fell 0.08%, the silver ETF - SLV fell 0.67%, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold rose 0.79%, and the non - commercial short positions of COMEX gold fell 2.41% [3] 3. Inventory Data - On March 17, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 105315.00 kg, and SHFE silver inventory was 353763.00 kg. On March 16, COMEX gold inventory was 32396398 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory was 339582263 troy ounces. Compared with March 16, SHFE gold inventory fell 0.10%, and SHFE silver inventory rose 6.97%. Compared with March 13, COMEX gold inventory fell 0.48%, and COMEX silver inventory fell 0.63% [3] 4. Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - On March 17, 2026, the US dollar/yuan central parity rate was 6.90. On March 16, the US dollar index was 99.80, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.68%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.23%, the VIX was 23.51, the S&P 500 was 6699.38, and NYMEX crude oil was 94.22. Compared with March 16, the US dollar/yuan central parity rate fell 0.14%. Compared with March 13, the US dollar index fell 0.70%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 1.34%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 1.17%, the VIX fell 13.53%, the S&P 500 rose 1.01%, and NYMEX crude oil fell 5.13% [3] 5. Market Review - On March 17, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.79% to 1116.2 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 1.19% to 20308 yuan/kg [3] 6. Impact Analysis - The US - Iran geopolitical conflict shows no sign of easing. High oil prices increase inflation risks and weaken the Fed's rate - cut expectations, which is negative for precious metal prices. However, as ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz and US officials soothe the market, the rise in oil prices has slowed, weakening inflation concerns, the US dollar index has fallen, and the decline in precious metal prices has slowed, turning into a volatile trend [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The liquidity market has been generally loose since March, with the weighted average rate of DR001 maintained around 1.32%. The central bank conducted 510 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, resulting in a net injection of 115 billion yuan after 395 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured. This week, 1765 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open - market operations [3][4]. - Yesterday, the stock index trends were divergent. The large - financial sector supported the market, while the small - and medium - cap stocks fell significantly. Due to limited incremental information from the Sino - US economic and trade representatives' meeting in Paris, the threat of a postponed visit by US President Trump to China, uncertainties in the Middle East conflict, rising crude oil prices, and increased inflation pressure and impact on global capital market liquidity, domestic small - and medium - cap stocks were dragged down. The stock index is expected to continue in a volatile pattern and may restart an upward trend as external inflation pressure eases and market risk appetite recovers. Strategically, investors can consider building long positions using the premium advantage of stock index futures in the medium - to - long - term while controlling positions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Interest Rate and Bond Market - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.32% with a 0.04 bp increase, DR007 at 1.43% with a 1.75 bp decrease, GC001 at 1.47% with a 3.50 bp decrease, GC007 at 1.52% with a 1.50 bp decrease, SHBOR 3M at 1.54% with a 0.22 bp decrease, and LPR 5 - year at 3.50% with no change [3]. - **Bond Yields**: The 1 - year treasury bond yield was 1.25% with a 0.75 bp decrease, the 5 - year treasury bond yield was 1.56% with a 0.40 bp decrease, the 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.84% with a 0.29 bp decrease, and the 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.23% with a 5.00 bp decrease [3]. Stock Index and Futures - **Stock Indexes**: The CSI 300 fell 0.73% to 4637, the SSE 50 rose 0.32% to 2964, the CSI 500 fell 2.07% to 8016, and the CSI 1000 fell 2.33% to 8020 [5][6]. - **Stock Index Futures**: IF当月 fell 0.7% to 4629, IH当月 rose 0.3% to 2962, IC当月 fell 2.2% to 8000, and IM当月 fell 2.1% to 8014. In terms of trading volume and open interest, IF trading volume increased 17.4% to 146,045, and open interest increased 2.5% to 280,450; IH trading volume increased 14.7% to 69,141, and open interest decreased 3.2% to 106,613; IC trading volume increased 0.3% to 170,339, and open interest decreased 2.7% to 294,227; IM trading volume increased 7.7% to 235,540, and open interest increased 0.1% to 382,072 [5]. - **Futures Premium/Discount**: IF's premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 22.67%, 6.20%, 6.67%, and 6.86% respectively; IH's were 6.48%, 3.41%, 3.01%, and 3.89% respectively; IC's were 24.32%, 9.70%, 9.99%, and 9.45% respectively; IM's were 8.89%, 10.11%, 12.06%, and 11.21% respectively [7]. Stock Market Trading Volume and Sector Performance - The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.22 trillion yuan, a decrease of 115.4 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed lower, with the insurance, chemical fiber, and real - estate services sectors leading the gains, and the communication equipment, electronic chemicals, components, power supply equipment, non - metallic materials, marine equipment, battery, and aerospace equipment sectors leading the losses [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - Overseas interest rate hike expectations have resurfaced, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision [2] - The tail - risk of the Iran situation has increased significantly, affecting the crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors, and there is a risk of further price increases [2] - During the two sessions in China, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, but the stock index rebounds after the two sessions. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have leading gains and win - rates [2] - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. Different commodity sectors have different focuses [3] - For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to buy on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The US and Israel carried out an air strike on Iran on February 28, and Iran launched a large - scale counter - attack. The conflict has exceeded the initial 4 - 5 - day expectation, and there is a risk of the US increasing troops. The situation has a significant impact on energy and production facilities in the Middle East, and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz is severely blocked [2] - The main affected varieties are concentrated in crude oil, LPG, and the shipping sector. Rising oil prices have driven the oil - chemical and oilseed sectors and raised concerns about inflation and economic recession [2] - The new Iranian supreme leader has stated that he will not give up revenge and will continue strategic means such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The US has threatened NATO allies to assist in the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, but allies have a cold response [2] - The US will launch a 301 investigation against 16 trading partners. The US judge has rejected the Trump administration's subpoena against Powell [2] - The Fed will announce its March interest rate decision at 02:00 on March 19, Beijing time [2] - The 2026 government work report mentioned an economic growth target of 4.5% - 5%, a deficit rate of about 4%, a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, and the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds [2] - During the two sessions, the A - share index has a "sell - the - fact" performance, with a negative average increase or decrease, but the average probability of increase is close to 50%. After the two sessions, the stock index strengthens, especially the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [2] - The US February non - farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased, and rising oil prices limit the space for interest rate cuts. There is only one interest rate cut priced in for the year [2] - China's February official manufacturing PMI is 49, and non - manufacturing PMI is 49.5. February exports increased by 39.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 13.8% year - on - year [2] - China's January - February social consumer goods retail sales increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.3% year - on - year. The electronic equipment manufacturing industry increased by 14.2% [2] - China's January - February real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, and the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 13.5% year - on - year. The decline in housing prices in first, second, and third - tier cities continued to narrow in February [2] - Sino - US economic and trade teams started consultations in Paris on March 15 [2] Commodity Analysis - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. The non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and oil prices in the previous week were inversely correlated [3] - The IEA has approved the release of a record 4 billion barrels of crude oil reserves, more than double the 2022 level. There is still a gap in the supply even if the release speed is considered [3] - Rising oil prices have a significant driving effect on oil - chemical products such as pure benzene, EB, PVC, PTA, ethylene glycol, and methanol. The oilseed sector in agricultural products is also affected by the spill - over effect of oil prices [3] - For the black commodity sector, attention should be paid to domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [3] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to buy on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [4] Important News - Iran's new supreme leader has rejected the proposal to "ease tensions or achieve peace" with the US and stated that the US and Israel must be defeated and pay compensation [6] - Iran's highest national security council secretary Ali Larijani has issued a hand - written condolence message [6] - The White House national economic council director said that if necessary, the coordinated release of oil reserves can be increased, and the Iran conflict will end in the short term. Futures show that oil prices will return to more than $50 per barrel later this year [6] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Larijani has been killed [6]