证券分析师 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.02.11） 固定收益研究 净融资额继续增加，信用利差整体走阔——信用债周报 行业研究 春节假期临近，关注节后需求——金属行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2026/02/11） 晨会纪要（2026/02/11） 固定收益研究 净融资额继续增加，信用利差整体走阔——信用债周报 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 1、核心观点 本期（2 月 2 日至 2 月 8 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数上行，整体变化幅度为-1 BP 至 4 BP。本 期信用债发行规模环比增长，企业债保持零发行，公司债、中期票据、定向工具发行金额增加，短期融资 券发行金额减少；信用债净融资额环比增加，短期融资券净融资额减少，其余品种净融资额增加，企业债 净融资额为负，其余品种 ...

Group 1: Macro Environment and Market Sentiment - The upcoming Spring Festival holiday will see the domestic futures market enter a trading halt, while overseas markets will continue to operate, with macro data, geopolitical situations, and policy expectations potentially impacting the domestic market post-holiday [1] - Analysts suggest that despite limited significant overseas economic data during the holiday, geopolitical uncertainties necessitate careful position management and risk hedging [1] - Key macro data to watch includes the U.S. retail sales data on February 17, preliminary PMI values for Europe and the U.S. on February 20, and the U.S. Q4 GDP data also on February 20 [1] Group 2: Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector has experienced notable adjustments since February, primarily due to a significant drop in precious metal prices and declines in U.S. stock markets, leading to a general downward pressure on non-ferrous metals ahead of the Spring Festival [2] - If military actions are taken by the U.S. against Iran, it could escalate conflicts in the Middle East, potentially disrupting aluminum supply, as the Gulf region accounts for about 8% of global electrolytic aluminum production [2] - Mid-term outlook remains optimistic for non-ferrous metals, driven by continued Fed rate cuts and global fiscal expansion, which are expected to support manufacturing and increase demand for metals like copper, aluminum, and tin [2][3] Group 3: Precious Metals - Precious metals are currently in a volatile phase, with prices having declined significantly but showing some stabilization; the market sentiment remains bullish on gold in the medium term [4] - The CFTC's net long positions in silver have dropped to multi-year lows, indicating that short-term selling pressure has been largely released, while gold may have formed a temporary bottom [4] - Analysts recommend holding positions in gold during the holiday to minimize trading costs, while silver and platinum may require lighter positions or options for risk hedging due to their higher volatility [4] Group 4: Crude Oil - The crude oil market is heavily influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly the U.S.-Iran negotiations, which will dictate price movements; a breakdown in talks could lead to significant price increases [6] - Current oil prices already reflect some geopolitical risk premium, and if tensions do not escalate further, prices may enter a recovery phase [6] - Analysts suggest maintaining caution in trading strategies, utilizing options or spread trading to manage price volatility during the holiday period [6]

Group 1: Market Insights from Jim Rogers - Jim Rogers has liquidated all his U.S. stock holdings and is focusing on physical commodities like gold, silver, and copper as a "perfect insurance policy" for potential crises [1][2] - He emphasizes the importance of holding gold and silver, stating they will serve as a crucial refuge in times of crisis and can also provide significant returns if the market conditions are favorable [1] - Rogers highlights the increasing demand for copper across various industries, particularly in electric vehicles and electronics, while noting the limited new copper mines being developed globally [1] Group 2: Market Conditions Ahead of Chinese New Year - As the Chinese New Year approaches, the domestic futures market will enter a holiday period while overseas markets continue trading, with macroeconomic data and geopolitical tensions likely influencing market conditions [3] - Analysts suggest that despite limited significant macroeconomic data during the holiday, geopolitical uncertainties require careful position management and risk hedging [3] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals Market Outlook - The non-ferrous metals sector has experienced notable adjustments, with pressures from falling precious metal prices and declines in U.S. stock markets leading to a general pullback [4] - There is a potential risk of supply disruptions in the aluminum market due to possible military actions in the Middle East, which could significantly impact global aluminum supply [4] - The long-term outlook for non-ferrous metals remains optimistic, driven by continued demand from AI infrastructure investments and global manufacturing support [4][5] Group 4: Precious Metals Price Volatility - Precious metals are currently experiencing price volatility, with a notable decline in prices but a decrease in volatility levels, indicating a potential stabilization phase [7] - Market sentiment remains bullish on gold's mid-term prospects, while silver and platinum are more volatile due to their industrial applications [7] - The recent decline in precious metal prices is viewed as a stress test for future liquidity tightening risks, with gold still holding significant long-term investment value [7] Group 5: Oil Market Dynamics - The oil market is heavily influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly the outcomes of U.S.-Iran negotiations, which could significantly affect oil prices [8] - Current oil prices reflect a certain level of geopolitical risk premium, and if tensions do not escalate, prices may enter a recovery phase [8] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations are also critical, as any progress or setbacks could impact oil price volatility [8]

Group 1: US-Iran Relations - President Trump is considering deploying another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East if negotiations with Iran fail, emphasizing that Iran must not possess nuclear weapons or missiles [1] - The second round of US-Iran negotiations is expected to take place next week, with Trump stating that any agreement must address both nuclear and ballistic missile issues [1] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is traveling to the US to provide new intelligence on Iran's military capabilities, particularly regarding its ballistic missile capabilities [2] Group 2: Israeli Stance - Netanyahu's visit to the US is aimed at presenting Israel's principled stance on Iran, which he claims is crucial for all nations seeking peace and security [2] - Iran's Foreign Minister has accused Netanyahu of attempting to drag the US into a war with Iran, asserting that Netanyahu supports war over diplomacy [4] Group 3: Market Insights - Jim Rogers, a prominent investor, has liquidated all his US stock holdings, opting instead for physical commodities like gold, silver, and copper as a hedge against potential crises [5] - Rogers advises that holding gold and silver is essential for both risk management and potential profit, while copper demand is expected to rise due to its widespread use in various industries [5] Group 4: Commodity Market Outlook - The non-ferrous metals sector has faced notable adjustments, with pressures from falling precious metal prices and declining US stock markets [8] - Analysts suggest that if the US takes military action against Iran, it could escalate conflicts in the Middle East, potentially disrupting aluminum supply and supporting prices [8] - The overall outlook for non-ferrous metals remains optimistic in the medium term, driven by global fiscal expansion and increased demand from technology sectors [8][9] Group 5: Precious Metals Analysis - Precious metals are currently experiencing volatility, with prices having declined significantly but showing signs of stabilization [10] - Market sentiment remains bullish on gold in the medium term, while silver and platinum are more volatile due to their industrial applications [10] Group 6: Oil Market Dynamics - The oil market is heavily influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly the US-Iran negotiations, which will significantly impact price movements [11][12] - Analysts recommend cautious trading strategies, including options to hedge against potential price fluctuations during the holiday period [12]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of developing new quality productivity as a strategic focus for high-quality economic development in China, particularly in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan [8] - Various regions are implementing tailored strategies to enhance new quality productivity based on their unique resources, industrial foundations, and research capabilities [8] Group 2 - In Beijing's Changping District, the transformation of old factories into modern laboratories is highlighted, showcasing collaboration between local government and Tsinghua University to foster innovation and advanced manufacturing [9][10] - The establishment of the Beijing Tsinghua Frontier Interdisciplinary Innovation Research Institute aims to enhance the efficiency of the entire chain from basic research to technology transfer [10][11] Group 3 - In Luoyang, digital technology is being utilized to create immersive experiences in cultural tourism, significantly enhancing visitor engagement and driving economic growth [12] - The city has seen over 6 billion visitors and nearly 480 billion yuan in tourism revenue during the 14th Five-Year period, indicating a robust growth in the tourism sector [12] Group 4 - Harbin's Deep Ha Industrial Park is becoming a hub for technological innovation, with a focus on developing high-value industries and fostering collaboration between universities and enterprises [13][14] - The region has seen a significant increase in high-tech enterprises and a substantial number of technology achievements being transformed into economic benefits [14] Group 5 - In Guangxi, the introduction of AI in sugarcane farming has improved efficiency and reduced costs, with the "Didi Agricultural Machinery" platform facilitating the digitalization of farming operations [15][16] - The city has implemented numerous technological upgrades in sugar production, leading to a significant increase in production efficiency and output value [16] Group 6 - The establishment of the Xiaoshan Membrane Material Town in Hangzhou marks a shift towards industrial cluster development in membrane materials, with a projected industrial output of 6.7 billion yuan by 2025 [17][18] - The company involved has made significant investments in R&D, leading to a comprehensive innovation ecosystem in the membrane materials sector [18] Group 7 - The National Ocean Comprehensive Test Field in Sanya is advancing deep-sea exploration and development, with a focus on building a robust marine technology industry chain [19][20] - The region is expected to support over 2,000 scientific research voyages by 2025, indicating a growing emphasis on marine research and technology [20] Group 8 - In Chongqing, technological advancements in film production are significantly reducing production time and costs, with a complete industrial chain for film and television being established [21][22] - The region has attracted numerous film projects, enhancing its reputation as a technology-driven film production hub [22] Group 9 - In Gansu, collaborative innovation is driving the development of a modern copper smelting factory, showcasing the integration of new technologies and local resources [23][24] - The establishment of a local supply chain for key materials has led to reduced manufacturing costs and increased efficiency in production [24] Group 10 - Xinjiang is enhancing its green energy capabilities with the construction of a pumped storage power station, which acts as a "super battery" for stabilizing energy supply [25][26] - By 2025, the region aims to achieve significant milestones in renewable energy generation and storage capacity, contributing to a sustainable energy future [26][27]

2026开年，全球金融市场迎来一场酣畅淋漓的"开门红"：A股三大指数集体走高，AI板块掀起涨停潮，有色板块表现抢眼；美股道指、纳指 稳步攀升，延续震荡上行态势；国际黄金价格突破历史高位，伦敦金现货一度大涨超3%，成为避险与增值的双重宠儿。但这份热闹背后，暗 潮早已汹涌——特朗普对美联储的施压层层加码，甚至力主对鲍威尔发起刑事调查，1月美联储利率会议暂停三连降，"美联储影子银行"热度 飙升，全球流动性格局正在悄然生变。 与此同时，国内"存款搬家"的呼声持续高涨，居民储蓄加速流向各类投资市场。当国际宏观局势加速演变，国内财政政策明确发力，2026年 的投资市场到底是"开门红延续"还是"昙花一现"？黄金、美元、债市、A股、美股、港股等各类资产将驶向何方？普通人该如何把握机遇、规 避风险，在这场全球金融博弈中站稳脚跟？结合当前热点、权威数据与行业观点，我们一文读懂2026开年市场的机遇与暗礁。 一、开年开门红真相：结构性狂欢，而非全面牛市 2026开年的市场上涨，并非全面普涨的狂欢，而是结构性机会的集中爆发，从具体数据中便能窥见端倪。A股方面，1月申万一级31个行业中 多数实现上涨，有色金属、传媒、石油石化行业涨幅居 ...

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Group 1 - The overall performance of A-shares is expected to continue improving, with a projected net profit growth rate of 26.8% for 2025, indicating a single-digit growth trend [5][23][27] - Approximately 2954 A-share companies have disclosed their 2025 annual performance forecasts, with a disclosure rate of about 54% and a positive forecast rate of 36.9%, which is lower than the mid-year report but higher than the same period last year [12][18][23] - Key sectors expected to see performance improvement include the price increase chain, overseas expansion chain, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors, driven by demand from AI and new energy [2][29][30] Group 2 - The major industry performance rankings for 2025 are led by Information Technology, followed by Healthcare, Midstream Manufacturing, Resource Products, Financial Real Estate, and Public Utilities [26][27] - The sectors with the highest expected profit growth include non-bank financials, beauty care, textiles, retail, and non-ferrous metals, with non-bank financials showing a positive forecast rate of 87.5% [18][20] - The price increase chain, which includes industrial metals, energy metals, and chemical products, is expected to benefit from limited capacity expansion and demand driven by AI and new energy, leading to improved performance [29][31] Group 3 - The TMT sector is projected to maintain high growth due to strong demand for AI computing and storage, with specific areas like semiconductors and communication devices expected to see significant profit increases [29][30] - The overseas expansion chain, including automotive parts and medical devices, is anticipated to benefit from stable domestic demand and improving external demand [29][30] - Other sectors such as personal care products, medical services, and seasoning products are also recommended for attention due to their potential for performance improvement [2][29]

Core Viewpoint - Companies are increasingly recognizing the importance of price risk management due to global commodity price fluctuations, engaging in futures and derivatives trading to safeguard high-quality development [1] Group 1: North Copper Industry - North Copper Industry announced plans to mitigate operational risks from price fluctuations of main products by engaging in copper, gold, and silver futures contracts through the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with a margin investment not exceeding RMB 700 million [2] - The company aims to align its futures hedging activities with its operational business to maximize the hedging of price volatility risks and has established a hedging management system to enhance internal controls and risk prevention measures [2] Group 2: Senqilin - Qingdao Senqilin Tire announced its intention to utilize the hedging functions of the futures market to effectively control market risks and mitigate adverse impacts from significant raw material price fluctuations, with a maximum margin and premium limit of RMB 200 million for its hedging activities [3] - The company will engage in futures contracts related to natural rubber and other commodities directly linked to its production operations, ensuring that the scale of its hedging activities matches its business operations [3] Group 3: Minglida - Minglida announced plans to conduct futures hedging activities to effectively address raw material price volatility risks, stabilize production costs, and enhance the predictability of its profitability, with a maximum margin and premium limit of RMB 250 million [4] - The company will limit its hedging activities to futures contracts for aluminum, aluminum alloys, and copper traded on domestic commodity exchanges, establishing a management system that outlines approval authority, operational processes, and risk control measures [4]

Market Overview - On February 10, A-shares experienced a narrow range consolidation, with AI applications seeing a surge while sectors like photovoltaic and consumer goods weakened. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.02%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.37%. The total trading volume for A-shares was 2.12 trillion yuan, down from 2.27 trillion yuan the previous day [2]. Capital Flow - The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 32 billion yuan, with an opening net outflow of 14.475 billion yuan and a closing net outflow of 4.452 billion yuan, totaling 32.204 billion yuan for the day [3]. - Over the last five trading days, the main funds have shown a consistent trend of outflow, particularly in the ChiNext, which saw a net outflow of 131.42 billion yuan on February 10 [4][5]. Sector Performance - The media sector led in net inflows, with a 5.22% increase and a net inflow of 8.613 billion yuan, primarily driven by Light Media. Other sectors with positive inflows included computer (0.74%, 1.780 billion yuan) and banking (0.20%, 1.486 billion yuan) [6]. - Conversely, the power equipment sector experienced the largest net outflow, declining by 0.82% with a net outflow of 12.059 billion yuan, followed by the electronics sector with a net outflow of 11.110 billion yuan [6]. Institutional Activity - The top stocks with significant institutional net purchases included JuLi SuoJu (8.212 million yuan), Hangdian Co. (7.610 million yuan), and Xibu Materials (4.821 million yuan) [8]. - Notable stocks with high institutional interest also included AoFei Entertainment, which saw a 10.01% increase, and Wanxiang Qianchao, which rose by 10.03% [9]. Analyst Ratings - Recent analyst ratings highlighted several stocks with potential upside, including Nanwei Medical (target price 97.65 yuan, current price 82.38 yuan, upside 18.54%), and BaLong ChuangYuan (target price 31.36 yuan, current price 24.92 yuan, upside 25.84%) [10].