1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 17, 2026, the monthly contracts of the four major index futures showed mixed trends. IF fell 0.71%, IH rose 0.3%, IC fell 2.05%, and IM fell 2.02%. The total trading volume of index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 21,683, 8,837, 560, and 16,761 lots respectively. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF and IM increased by 6,776 and 508 lots respectively, while the total positions of IH and IC decreased by 3,547 and 8,120 lots respectively. The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1 [1][2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Series**: The closing price of IF2603 was 4,628.8, down 0.71%, with a basis of -8.64, a trading volume of 101.47 billion, a trading volume of 72,312 lots (up 4,747 lots), and an open interest of 78,883 lots (down 10,452 lots). Similar data is provided for IF2604, IF2606, and IF2609 [1]. - **IH Series**: The closing price of IH2603 was 2,962, up 0.30%, with a basis of -1.58, a trading volume of 30.4 billion, a trading volume of 34,019 lots (up 1,218 lots), and an open interest of 33,412 lots (down 9,337 lots). Similar data is provided for IH2604, IH2606, and IH2609 [1]. - **IC Series**: The closing price of IC2603 was 8,000, down 2.05%, with a basis of -16.03, a trading volume of 116.99 billion, a trading volume of 72,130 lots (down 9,865 lots), and an open interest of 69,093 lots (down 15,355 lots). Similar data is provided for IC2604, IC2606, and IC2609 [1]. - **IM Series**: The closing price of IM2603 was 8,014, down 2.02%, with a basis of -5.86, a trading volume of 177.54 billion, a trading volume of 109,515 lots (down 3,322 lots), and an open interest of 100,638 lots (down 14,329 lots). Similar data is provided for IM2604, IM2606, and IM2609 [1]. 3.2 Index Futures Basis - The basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM from February 11 to March 17, 2026, are presented in graphical form, showing the basis changes of the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts [4]. 3.3 Top 20 Member Positions - The changes in long and short positions of the top 20 members in each contract of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided. For example, in IF2603, the long positions decreased by 6,966 lots, and the short positions decreased by 8,912 lots [5]. 3.4 Market Trends and Drivers - A-shares showed a trend of rising and then falling. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.85% to 4,049.91 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.87%, the ChiNext Index fell 2.29%, and other major indices also declined. The market turnover was 2.22 trillion yuan, and more than 4,500 stocks fell. The computing power hardware industry chain and super-hard material concepts fell sharply, while the sub - new stocks and large - financial sectors strengthened [6]. - Hong Kong stocks also showed a trend of rising and then falling. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.13% to 25,868.54 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.08%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.12%. The semiconductor, electrical equipment, and energy chemical sectors fell, while the real estate, automobile, and financial stocks strengthened. The market turnover was HK$268.26 billion, and the southbound funds had a net selling of more than HK$11 billion [7].

Report Summary 1. Hot News - Iran's President Pezeshkian mourned the death of the former speaker and secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps confirmed the death of Basij militia leader Qolamreza Suleimani. Iran has appointed multiple replacements for key national positions. Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei rejected mediation proposals, and Foreign Minister Araqchi denied new contact with US President's envoy Witkoff. The Israeli Defense Forces said they would "hunt down" Mojtaba Khamenei [2]. - The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on seven aspects: supporting the construction of a strong domestic market, cultivating and expanding new drivers, accelerating high - level scientific and technological self - reliance, increasing efforts to ensure and improve people's livelihoods, promoting new urbanization and regional coordinated development, accelerating the comprehensive green transformation, and strengthening fiscal scientific management [2]. - From January to February, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 1654.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%, with the growth rate 4.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The electricity consumption growth rates of the charging and swapping service industry and the Internet data service industry reached 55.1% and 46.2% respectively [2]. - Last week, international companies suspended some Brazilian soybean exports, and the slow progress of the Brazilian soybean harvest led to concerns about a tight supply of imported soybeans in China from March to April. The trading volume of soybean meal increased significantly, and the inventory decreased significantly. The trading volume of soybean meal in oil mills remains high, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline this week, possibly dropping to about 450,000 tons by the end of the month, a year - on - year decrease of about 200,000 tons [3]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange decided to set Changshu Qianhong Petrochemical Port Storage Co., Ltd. and Changzhou Hongchuan Petrochemical Storage Co., Ltd. as designated propylene delivery warehouses, and Jiangsu Sierbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Tianjin Bohua Aojia Yongli Chemical Co., Ltd. as designated propylene delivery plants, starting from the date of the announcement [3]. 2. Sector Performance - **Key Focus**: Urea, coking coal, methanol, plastic, asphalt [4]. - **Night - session Performance**: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.40%, precious metals rose 28.86%, oilseeds rose 8.67%, soft commodities rose 2.48%, non - ferrous metals rose 22.82%, coal - coking - steel - ore rose 8.72%, energy rose 7.78%, chemicals rose 14.57%, grains rose 0.99%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.71% [4]. 3. Sector Positions - The document shows the changes in the positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, Wind energy, Wind coal - coking - steel - ore, Wind non - ferrous metals, Wind commodity composites, Wind soft commodities, Wind oilseeds, Wind precious metals, and Wind non - metallic building materials [5]. 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily % Change | Monthly % Change | Year - to - date % Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 0.85 | - 2.71 | 2.04 | | | SSE 50 | 0.32 | - 2.50 | - 2.23 | | | CSI 300 | - 0.73 | - 1.55 | 0.16 | | | CSI 500 | - 2.07 | - 7.42 | 7.37 | | | S&P 500 | 0.25 | - 2.37 | - 1.89 | | | Hang Seng Index | 0.13 | - 2.86 | 0.93 | | | German DAX | 0.71 | - 6.14 | - 3.10 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 0.09 | - 8.75 | 6.68 | | | FTSE 100 | 0.83 | - 4.65 | 4.75 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.05 | - 0.24 | 0.26 | | | 5 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.04 | - 0.09 | 0.14 | | | 2 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.01 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 1.30 | 16.54 | 21.96 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 2.95 | 43.18 | 67.41 | | | London Spot Gold | 0.06 | - 5.15 | 15.94 | | | LME Copper | 0.00 | - 2.84 | 3.38 | | | Wind Commodity Index | - 0.15 | - 9.54 | 9.86 | | Other | US Dollar Index | - 0.25 | 1.96 | 1.31 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | - 4.85 | 12.64 | 49.63 | [6] 5. Stock Market Risk Preference and Major Commodity Trends - The document presents the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3 - month copper, CBOT soybeans, CBOT corn, and the risk premium of the Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For silver options, the ag2606 contract closed at 20306 yuan yesterday, down 244 yuan or 1.18% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 550109 lots (down 173852 lots) and an open interest of 218466 lots (up 1808 lots). The implied volatility of AG (silver options) fluctuates above the mean of 0.4540. The AG option open interest PCR is 0.9045, at the 6.12% level in the past year. The pressure level is 37600 and the support level is 15000 [7]. - For gold options, the au2604 contract closed at 1116.2 yuan yesterday, down 8.92 yuan or 0.79% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 146932 lots (down 67362 lots) and an open interest of 90930 lots (down 3598 lots). The implied volatility of AU (gold options) fluctuates above the mean of 0.2661. The AU option open interest PCR is 0.734, at the 43.67% level in the past year. The pressure level is 1200 and the support level is 1000 [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Silver Options 3.1.1标的期货市场数据 - The ag2606 contract of AG (silver options) had a closing price of 20308, a decrease of 144, a decline rate of 18%, a trading volume of 550109 lots (down 173852 lots), and an open interest of 218466 lots (up 1808 lots) [4]. 3.1.2期权因子 - 量仓PCR - For AG (silver call options), the trading volume was 152708 (down 37425), the open interest was 131190 (up 3858), the trading volume PCR was 1.17 (down 0.2), and the open interest PCR was 0.9 (down 0.03). For AG (silver put options), the trading volume was 179034 (down 81175), and the open interest was 118667 (up 174) [5]. 3.1.3期权因子 - 压力支撑 - For AG (silver options) with the aq2604 contract, the at - the - money strike price was 20400, the pressure level was 37600, the support level was 15000, the weighted implied volatility was 88.13% (down 2.97%), the annual average implied volatility was 45.40%, and HISV20 was 83.33% [6]. 3.1.4行情解读与策略建议 - **行情解析**: As mentioned in the core viewpoints. - **策略建议**: No directional strategy. For volatility strategy, construct a neutral short - volatility option seller portfolio strategy to obtain option time value, and dynamically adjust the positions to make the position delta neutral, such as S_AG2604P19600, S_AG2604P2000, S_AG2604C21800, S_AG2604C22000 [8]. 3.2 Gold Options 3.2.1标的期货市场数据 - The au2604 contract of AU (gold options) had a closing price of 1116.2 (down 8.92, 0.79% decline), a trading volume of 146932 lots (down 67362 lots), and an open interest of 90930 lots (down 3598 lots) [20]. 3.2.2期权因子 - 量仓PCR - For AU (gold call options), the trading volume was 46472 (down 9660), the open interest was 59515 (down 132), the trading volume PCR was 0.9 (down 0.24), and the open interest PCR was 0.73. For AU (gold put options), the trading volume was 41738 (down 21981), and the open interest was 43682 (up 190) [18]. 3.2.3期权因子 - 压力支撑 - For AU (gold options) with the au2604 contract, the at - the - money strike price was 1120, the pressure level was 1200, the support level was 1000, the weighted implied volatility was 35.02% (down 2.31%), the annual average implied volatility was 26.61%, and HISV20 was 26.39% [19]. 3.2.4行情解读与策略建议 - **行情解析**: As mentioned in the core viewpoints. - **策略建议**: No directional strategy. For volatility strategy, construct a short call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value, and dynamically adjust the positions to keep the position delta neutral, such as S_AU2604P1096, S_AU2604C1152 [21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term and recommend buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move in a range [1] - Black building materials: Coking coal recommends short-term trading; rebar suggests range trading; glass advises selling out-of-the-money call options [1] - Non-ferrous metals: Copper recommends moderately shorting at high prices or staying on the sidelines; aluminum suggests strengthening observation; nickel advises staying on the sidelines; tin recommends range trading; gold and silver are expected to move in a range; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to be moderately bullish; soda ash recommends shorting at high prices; rubber recommends buying on dips without chasing highs; urea and methanol recommend range trading [1] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be moderately bullish; apples and jujubes are expected to move in a range [1] - Agricultural and livestock: For live pigs, adopt a bearish approach on rebounds for contracts 05 and 07, and treat contract 09 with a range-bound view; eggs are expected to trade in a range; corn is expected to trade in a short-term range; for soybean meal, be cautious about chasing long positions in contract 05 due to capital disturbances; for oils and fats, recommend rolling long positions and gradually reducing previous long positions [1] Core Views - The global geopolitical situation, especially the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, has a significant impact on the futures market, affecting factors such as inflation expectations, interest rate expectations, and supply and demand of various commodities [5][6][14][20][21] - Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own supply and demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment [8][9][11][16][17] Summary by Directory Macro-finance - Index futures: In the medium to long term, they are bullish. Due to factors such as the significant downward revision of the US Q4 GDP growth rate, the decline in consumer confidence, and geopolitical events, the index futures may move in a range in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [1][5] - Treasury bonds: They are expected to move in a range. Influenced by factors such as China's new social financing and credit data, Sino-US economic and trade consultations, and geopolitical situations, the bond market sentiment is cautious, and the overall bond market shows a differentiated trend [1][6] Black building materials - Coking coal: It is expected to move in a range, and short-term trading is recommended. After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is generally weak and stable. The resumption of production in coal mines and the slow recovery of terminal steel demand have led to a weak trading atmosphere [1][8] - Rebar: It is expected to move in a range. The rebar futures price is currently below the electric furnace valley electricity cost, with a low static valuation. The inventory is expected to peak and decline, and the price is expected to be moderately bullish in the short term [1][9] - Glass: It is expected to move in a range, and selling out-of-the-money call options is recommended. The downstream replenishment is basically completed, the supply and demand situation is complex, and the price is expected to be in a high-level range [1][10][11] Non-ferrous metals - Copper: It is in a high-level range and is under pressure. It is recommended to moderately short at high prices or stay on the sidelines. Pay close attention to the duration and intensity of the war, the global economic recession expectations, and the inventory depletion progress [1][13][14] - Aluminum: It is in a high-level range. It is recommended to strengthen observation. The supply and demand situation is affected by factors such as the price of bauxite, the production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, and the geopolitical situation. The overall situation is complex, and it is recommended to be long with position control [1][16] - Nickel: It is expected to move in a range, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. The supply and demand of nickel ore are tight, the supply of refined nickel is increasing, and the demand is general. The price is expected to be moderately bullish, but there is a lack of obvious upward drivers [1][17] - Tin: It is expected to move in a range, and range trading is recommended. The supply of tin ore is tight, the downstream consumption is in a rigid demand state, and the price is expected to be in a wide and moderately bullish range [1][18][19] - Gold and silver: They are expected to move in a range. Affected by the conflict between the US and Iran, inflation expectations, and interest rate expectations, the prices are in a callback state, and the mid-term price centers are moving up. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and trade cautiously [1][20][21] - Lithium carbonate: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply and demand are both increasing, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate. Pay attention to the progress of the export ban in Zimbabwe and the disturbances in the Yichun mining area [1][22] Energy and chemicals - PVC: It is expected to be moderately bullish. The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export is expected to maintain a high growth rate. It is recommended to operate within the range of the upward channel [1][23][24] - Caustic soda: It is expected to be moderately bullish. The demand from the alumina industry provides marginal support, and the export is expected to increase. The price is expected to rebound strongly at a low valuation, but be cautious about chasing highs [1][25] - Styrene: It is expected to be moderately bullish. Supported by the cost and with a low inventory pressure, it is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs [1][26][27] - Polyolefins: They are expected to be moderately bullish. Supported by the cost and with an improvement in supply and demand, the price has upward momentum [1][28] - Rubber: It is expected to be moderately bullish. Affected by factors such as synthetic rubber and inventory pressure, it is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs [1][29][30] - Urea: It is expected to be moderately bullish and trade in a range. The supply is at a high level, the demand from the agricultural and compound fertilizer industries is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be moderately bullish [1][31] - Methanol: It is expected to be moderately bullish and trade in a range. Affected by the conflict in Iran, the supply may be in a shortfall, and the price is expected to be pushed up in the short term [1][33] - Soda ash: It is recommended to short at high prices. The supply is expected to remain high, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to be under pressure [1][34] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: They are expected to be moderately bullish. The global cotton supply is increasing, the consumption is slightly decreasing, the domestic spot market is active, and the price is expected to be moderately bullish [1][36][37] - Apples: They are expected to move in a range. The market is in a state of polarization, and the prices in different regions vary [1][38] - Jujubes: They are expected to move in a range. The raw material acquisition in the production area is based on quality, and the trading is relatively light [1][39][40] Agricultural and livestock - Live pigs: For contracts 05 and 07, adopt a bearish approach on rebounds; for contract 09, treat it with a range-bound view. The current supply is greater than demand, and the price is in a bottoming-out stage. Pay attention to factors such as policies, second-round fattening, and frozen product storage [1][42] - Eggs: They are expected to trade in a range. The supply and demand are in a state of balance, and the price is close to the cost line. Pay attention to factors such as the rhythm of chicken culling, inventory depletion, and holiday备货 [1][43][44] - Corn: It is expected to trade in a short-term range. The supply and demand are in a state of balance, and the price is in a narrow range. Pay attention to factors such as the circulation of high-quality grain in the Northeast, the replenishment rhythm in North China, and the substitution of wheat [1][45] - Soybean meal: In the case of capital disturbances, be cautious about chasing long positions in contract 05. Affected by factors such as the progress of US soybean exports, Brazilian shipping, and Argentine production, the price is expected to be moderately bullish [1][46][47] - Oils and fats: They are expected to be in a high-level range. It is recommended to roll long positions and gradually reduce previous long positions. Affected by factors such as the conflict between the US and Iran, the supply and demand of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are different, and the price trends vary [1][47][53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the trading and position - holding data of various market sectors on March 17, 2026, including changes in trading volume, position - holding amount, and trading - to - position ratios compared to the previous trading day [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - There are figures showing the trading - to - position ratio, trading volume change rate, position - holding volume, position - holding amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each plate [5][8] II. Stock Index Plate - On March 17, 2026, the trading volume was 912.639 billion yuan, a +7.62% change from the previous trading day; the position - holding amount was 1540.072 billion yuan, a - 1.82% change; the trading - to - position ratio was 58.41% [1] - There are figures showing the price change rate, trading - to - position ratio, change in settled funds, trend of settled funds, change in trading amount, and the trend of the net position ratio of the top 20 of each variety in the stock index plate [5][9] III. Treasury Bond Plate - On March 17, 2026, the trading volume was 262.545 billion yuan, a - 29.25% change from the previous trading day; the position - holding amount was 853.421 billion yuan, a +0.22% change; the trading - to - position ratio was 29.73% [1] - There are figures showing the price change rate, trading - to - position ratio, change in settled funds, trend of settled funds, change in trading amount, and the trend of the net position ratio of the top 20 of each variety in the treasury bond plate [5][25] IV. Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - On March 17, 2026, the trading volume of the basic metals plate was 525.981 billion yuan, a - 10.24% change from the previous trading day; the position - holding amount was 647.285 billion yuan, a - 2.85% change; the trading - to - position ratio was 104.99%. The trading volume of the precious metals plate was 538.737 billion yuan, a - 30.22% change; the position - holding amount was 492.974 billion yuan, a - 1.24% change; the trading - to - position ratio was 143.62% [1] - There are figures showing the price change rate, trading - to - position ratio, change in settled funds, trend of settled funds, trading volume change rate, and the trend of the net position ratio of the top 20 of each variety in the metal plate [5][34] V. Energy and Chemical Plate - On March 17, 2026, the trading volume was 1117.18 billion yuan, a - 11.89% change from the previous trading day; the position - holding amount was 575.952 billion yuan, a - 2.43% change; the trading - to - position ratio was 180.21% [1] - There are figures showing the price change rate, trading - to - position ratio, change in settled funds, trend of settled funds, trading volume change rate, and the trend of the net position ratio of the top 20 of the main varieties in the energy and chemical plate [5][37] VI. Agricultural Products Plate - On March 17, 2026, the trading volume was 401.918 billion yuan, a - 17.35% change from the previous trading day; the position - holding amount was 675.952 billion yuan, a - 0.02% change; the trading - to - position ratio was 58.37% [1] - There are figures showing the price change rate, trading - to - position ratio, change in settled funds, trend of settled funds, trading volume change rate, and the trend of the net position ratio of the top 20 of the main varieties in the agricultural products plate [5][50] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - On March 17, 2026, the trading volume was 159.57 billion yuan, a - 22.17% change from the previous trading day; the position - holding amount was 321.601 billion yuan, a +0.23% change; the trading - to - position ratio was 46.30% [2] - There are figures showing the price change rate, trading - to - position ratio, change in settled funds, trend of settled funds, trading volume change rate, and the trend of the net position ratio of the top 20 of each variety in the black building materials plate [5][55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the price changes of various commodities on March 18, 2026, compared to March 17, 2026, including chemical and agricultural products [4]. - It also covers macro - economic news such as international relations, inflation data, and energy - related events [7][8][9]. - For different commodities, it analyzes their fundamentals, price trends, and provides corresponding trading strategies and risk points [11][12][13][14][15][16][17]. - In the financial market, it analyzes the performance of stock index futures and options, and gives trading suggestions [16][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Products - **Price Changes**: On March 18, 2026, compared to March 17, 2026, prices of some chemicals like methanol, plastic, and polypropylene PP increased, while natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and styrene decreased [4]. - **Analysis of Specific Products**: - **Caustic Soda**: The market has an optimistic price expectation, but attention should be paid to overseas device dynamics, export orders, inventory changes, and device maintenance progress. There is a risk of near - month contract callback if the futures price is much higher than the spot price [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend is still strong, with an upward - biased oscillation. The demand side is supported by the expected increase in daily iron - water production [13][14]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The price dropped, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. It is expected to continue the weak oscillation, and there is a risk of further price decline if demand does not improve [14]. - **Urea**: The market price is weakly stable. Supply is relatively sufficient, and industrial demand is marginally increasing. There is a risk of futures price callback at high levels [14]. 3.2 Agricultural Products - **Price Changes**: On March 18, 2026, compared to March 17, 2026, prices of some agricultural products like yellow soybean No. 1, yellow soybean No. 2, and soybean meal decreased, while white sugar increased [4]. - **Analysis of Specific Products**: - **White Sugar**: After a technical correction, attention should be paid to the support at 5400 yuan/ton. There are risks from domestic supply pressure and overall commodity market sentiment [11]. - **Corn**: It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the support in the 2360 - 2370 area [11]. - **Peanut**: It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations [11]. - **Pork**: The overall spot market has an oversupply situation, and the futures price is higher than the spot price, constantly seeking new support through decline [11]. - **Egg**: The spot price has ups and downs. The futures price is short - term oscillating strongly, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to try short - selling on rebounds [13]. - **Red Date**: The spot price is temporarily stable, and it is recommended to sell high and buy low [13]. - **Cotton**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. It is advisable to consider long - position layout near the lower limit of the price range, but pay attention to the pressure from the high internal - external price difference [13]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are oscillating at high levels with large fluctuations. There are both supportive and suppressive factors [14]. - **Copper and Aluminum**: The aluminum price is relatively strongly supported by fundamentals, and the copper - aluminum price ratio may continue to return [14]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand situation has not changed much. There are concerns about the supply restriction of bauxite in Guinea, and a long - position bias at low prices is recommended [14][15]. 3.4 Steel and Iron Alloys - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The steel price is oscillating slightly upward. The raw material price is strong, providing cost support. Attention should be paid to the downstream demand and inventory changes [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: The alloys rebounded strongly on Tuesday. They are indirectly benefited from the energy premium caused by geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to take a long - position bias on corrections, but not to chase high prices [15]. 3.5 Lithium Carbonate - The price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to conduct range operations, paying attention to the pressure at 160,000 yuan/ton and the support at 154,000 yuan/ton [15][17]. 3.6 Option Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On March 17, A - share market indexes declined. Different stock index futures and options have different performance in terms of position, trading volume, and basis. Trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can hold short - straddle positions to short volatility [16][17]. - **Stock Index**: The market is affected by multiple factors such as the Middle - East conflict and energy prices. It is recommended to control positions, pay attention to the low - volume signals of mainstream wide - based ETFs, and conduct low - absorption and rolling operations [17][19].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term view of being bullish on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips as using stock index as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns [3]. - For treasury bond futures, the short - term trend is unclear, so it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium - to - long - term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct hedging on T and TL contracts on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Spot and Futures Market Performance - On March 17, the four major A - share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.85% to close at 4049.91 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.87% to close at 14039.73 points; the ChiNext Index fell 2.29% to close at 3280.06 points; the STAR 50 Index fell 2.23% to close at 1354.15 points. The market turnover was 22,246 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,153 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, non - bank finance (+1.28%), banks (+0.85%), and food and beverage (+0.55%) performed well; communication (-4.69%), electronics (-2.97%), and national defense and military industry (-2.57%) performed averagely. In terms of market strength, IH>IF>IC>IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 863/81/4,541 respectively [2]. - The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 327 billion, - 276 billion, 125 billion, and 478 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 245 billion, - 192 billion, + 170 billion, and + 267 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts was 68.86, 66.03, 24.44, and 8.58 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 9.33%, - 8.95%, - 5.73%, and - 3.15% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 48%, 26%, 22%, and 27% respectively [3]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Spot and Futures Market Performance - On March 17, treasury bond futures rose slightly. Among the active contracts, TS rose 0.03%, TF rose 0.04%, T rose 0.05%, and TL rose 0.13% [3]. - For the current active 2606 contract, the CTD bond of the 2 - year treasury bond futures was 250024.IB, with a yield change of - 2bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.057, and an IRR of 1.21%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year treasury bond futures was 250014.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.028, and an IRR of 1.32%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year treasury bond futures was 250025.IB, with a yield change of - 0.55bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.051, and an IRR of 1.23%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year treasury bond futures was 210014.IB, with a yield change of - 0.75bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.193, and an IRR of 0.81% [3]. - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 51 billion yuan into the market and withdrew 39.5 billion yuan, with a net injection of 11.5 billion yuan [3]. 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that at the beginning of March, the business climate of various sectors declined slightly [10].

文字早评 2026/03/18 星期三 宏观金融类 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：15.03%/5.80%/10.66%/7.79%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：16.13%/9.06%/15.96%/10.73%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：5.89%/9.44%/19.27%/12.73%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：4.29%/3.18%/4.81%/4.41%。 【策略观点】 近日在美伊冲突扰动全球风险偏好，油价持续上涨、核心 PCE 数据及就业基本符合预期，美联储降息预 期减弱，美债收益率快速攀升；国内出口韧性、PPI 连续收窄，建议关注战局转变，注意控制风险。 国债 股指 【行情资讯】 1、伊朗新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊在外事会议上否决了与美国"缓和紧张关系或实现和平"的 提议；驻日美军两栖攻击舰驶向中东； 2、新一批 15 只硬科技主题基金集中获批，科技创新领域再迎资金活水；国家发改委推出新一批 13 个 重大外资项目，计划投资额 134 亿美元； 3、高通批准进行 200 亿美元的股票回购计划，并将提升股息水平； 4、王兴兴：今年机器人会比博尔特跑的快。 文字早 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market data, option factors, and provides strategy suggestions for various black options including glass (FG), iron ore (I), rebar (RB), soda ash (SA), ferrosilicon (SF), and manganese silicon (SM) [4][17][28] Summary by Directory 1. Glass (FG) - **Futures Market Data**: FG605 contract closed at 1094 yuan yesterday, down 22 yuan or 1.97% from the previous day. Volume was 860,219 lots, down 465,911 lots, and open interest was 985,969 lots, up 5,796 lots [4][7] - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Call option volume was 162,194 lots, down 56,645 lots; open interest was 273,208 lots, up 13,286 lots. Put option volume was 73,659 lots, down 20,153 lots; open interest was 180,035 lots, up 7,384 lots. Volume PCR was 0.45, up 0.03; open interest PCR was 0.66, down 0.01 [5] - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The strike price at the money was 1,100. The resistance level was 1,660, and the support level was 1,000. The weighted implied volatility was 50.33%, down 2.23%, and the annual average implied volatility was 37.68% [6] - **Strategy Suggestions**: No directional strategy. For volatility strategy, construct a short volatility combination of selling call and put options to obtain time value, such as S_FG2603P1020 and S_FG2603C1140 [8] 2. Iron Ore (I) - **Futures Market Data**: i2605 contract closed at 816.5 yuan yesterday, up 14.5 yuan or 1.80% from the previous day. Volume was 210,056 lots, down 109,973 lots, and open interest was 461,728 lots, up 2,876 lots [19] - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Call option volume was 150,193 lots, down 39,383 lots; open interest was 146,073 lots, down 29,662 lots. Put option volume was 124,771 lots, down 18,781 lots; open interest was 123,965 lots, down 55,378 lots. Volume PCR was 0.83, up 0.07; open interest PCR was 0.85, down 0.02 [17] - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The strike price at the money was 900. The resistance level was 900, and the support level was 700. The weighted implied volatility was 26.80%, and the annual average implied volatility was 14.87% [18] - **Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategy, construct a bull spread of call options to obtain directional returns, such as B_I2605C780 and S_I2605C830. No volatility strategy [20] 3. Rebar (RB) - **Futures Market Data**: rb2605 contract closed at 3,148 yuan yesterday, up 13 yuan or 0.41% from the previous day. Volume was 592,481 lots, down 143,412 lots, and open interest was 1,549,530 lots, down 24,530 lots [31] - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Call option volume was 73,837 lots, up 5,092 lots; open interest was 236,065 lots, up 10,364 lots. Put option volume was 22,166 lots, down 13 lots; open interest was 120,934 lots, up 4,661 lots. Volume PCR was 0.3, down 0.02; open interest PCR was 0.51 [29] - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The strike price at the money was 3,150. The resistance level was 3,550, and the support level was 3,000. The weighted implied volatility was 20.49%, down 0.29%, and the annual average implied volatility was 17.21% [30] - **Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategy, construct a bull spread of call options to obtain directional returns. For volatility strategy, construct a combination of selling call and put options to obtain time value, and dynamically adjust positions to keep the delta of positions short, such as S_RB2605P2950 and S_RB2605C3200 [32] 4. Soda Ash (SA) - **Futures Market Data**: SA605 contract closed at 1,243 yuan yesterday, down 18 yuan or 1.42% from the previous day. Volume was 791,411 lots, down 365,110 lots, and open interest was 964,268 lots, down 3,395 lots [43] - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Call option volume was 204,438 lots, down 11,444 lots; open interest was 298,611 lots, up 14,789 lots. Put option volume was 68,967 lots, down 12,427 lots; open interest was 112,156 lots, up 5,165 lots. Volume PCR was 0.34, down 0.04; open interest PCR was 0.38 [41] - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The strike price at the money was 1,240. The resistance level was 1,740, and the support level was 1,100. The weighted implied volatility was 45.46%, down 1.37%, and the annual average implied volatility was 32.35% [42] - **Strategy Suggestions**: No directional strategy. For volatility strategy, construct a short volatility combination to obtain volatility returns, such as S_SA2605P1140 and S_SA2605C1300 [44] 5. Ferrosilicon (SF) - **Futures Market Data**: SF605 contract closed at 5,928 yuan yesterday, up 30 yuan or 0.50% from the previous day. Volume was 121,759 lots, up 2,874 lots, and open interest was 180,530 lots, up 8,393 lots [55] - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Call option volume was 14,980 lots, up 3,061 lots; open interest was 24,284 lots, up 1,588 lots. Put option volume was 5,654 lots, down 1,618 lots; open interest was 17,813 lots, up 377 lots. Volume PCR was 0.38, down 0.23; open interest PCR was 0.73, down 0.03 [53] - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The strike price at the money was 5,900. The resistance level was 6,500, and the support level was 5,500. The weighted implied volatility was 25.30%, up 0.57%, and the annual average implied volatility was 22.53% [54] - **Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategy, construct a bull spread of call options to obtain directional returns. For volatility strategy, do not recommend strategies based on selling (such as single selling or double selling) [56] 6. Manganese Silicon (SM) - **Futures Market Data**: SM605 contract closed at 6,240 yuan yesterday, up 52 yuan or 0.84% from the previous day. Volume was 239,710 lots, up 88,137 lots, and open interest was 364,105 lots, down 646 lots [68] - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Call option volume was 71,288 lots, up 46,634 lots; open interest was 72,091 lots, up 5,442 lots. Put option volume was 17,185 lots, up 4,769 lots; open interest was 33,591 lots, up 798 lots. Volume PCR was 0.24, down 0.26; open interest PCR was 0.47, down 0.03 [66] - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The strike price at the money was 6,200. The resistance level was 6,500, and the support level was 5,900. The weighted implied volatility was 30.37%, up 3.19%, and the annual average implied volatility was 22.33% [67] - **Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategy, construct a bull spread of call options to obtain directional returns. For volatility strategy, due to high geopolitical risks, do not recommend strategies based on selling (such as single selling or double selling) [69]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The ongoing war between the US, Israel, and Iran has made the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz a gray rhino event, causing oil prices to remain high. The supply of crude oil is expected to decline, and the market is in a state of shortage. The release of strategic oil reserves can only temporarily alleviate the supply gap. The price of crude oil will depend on the situation of the Strait of Hormuz and the balance between supply and demand [3][4]. - The Chinese government will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, which will support the equity market, especially the infrastructure, consumption, and technology sectors. However, the overseas "stagflation" risk and the market's demand for verifying the economic recovery strength will suppress the global risk preference, and the market will continue to adjust with structural differentiation [5]. - Geopolitical risks have not pushed up the price of gold as expected. Instead, the soaring oil price has strengthened inflation expectations, leading to a significant cooling of the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield have put pressure on the price of gold. The price of gold is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and there may be an opportunity to buy at a low price in the medium - to - long term [6][7]. - The price of silver is under pressure from the strengthening dollar and the market's short positions, but it is also supported by strong industrial demand and supply shortages. Traders should pay attention to the breakthrough of key intervals and control their positions [8]. - The prices of various chemical products are affected by factors such as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, supply and demand, and cost. The market trends of different chemical products vary, and investors need to pay attention to relevant factors [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. - The prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as international geopolitical situations, supply and demand, and policies. Different agricultural products have different market trends, and investors need to pay attention to relevant information [19][20][21][22][23][24][25]. - The prices of metals are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical risks, and inventory. Different metals have different market trends, and investors need to pay attention to relevant factors [26][27][28][29][30][31][32]. - The prices of black commodities are affected by factors such as policy expectations, supply and demand, and cost. Different black commodities have different market trends, and investors need to pay attention to relevant information [33][34][35][36][37][38][39]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Macro and Geopolitical Factors**: The war between the US, Israel, and Iran continues, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has become a gray rhino event, causing oil prices to remain high. The US president's call for joint escort has received few responses, and it is difficult to resume navigation in the short term. The reduction in production by Middle Eastern oil - producing countries and the increased transportation costs due to rerouting after the blockade will give crude oil a certain premium [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The IEA predicts that the crude oil supply will decrease by 8 million barrels per day in March. If the blockade continues, the supply may continue to decline. The market has shifted from oversupply to shortage, with a gap of 10 - 20 million barrels per day, accounting for 10% of the dynamic balance. The release of strategic oil reserves can only make up for one - month's export gap if the Strait of Hormuz has zero traffic. The price of crude oil may drop significantly if the Strait is reopened after the refineries reduce their loads and demand declines further. If the Strait's traffic and the supply - demand balance do not return to normal during the peak summer season, the oil price will remain high [4]. - **Reference View**: Pay attention to whether the WTI main contract can hold the key position around $95 - 100 per barrel. The volatility of crude oil has increased [4]. Stock Index - **Macro Information**: The Chinese government will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, aiming to stabilize the macro - economic situation and support the equity market, especially the infrastructure, consumption, and technology sectors [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The overseas "stagflation" risk has suppressed the global risk preference. The market's demand for verifying the economic recovery strength has increased. Some growth sectors are facing performance tests and changes in external liquidity expectations. Funds tend to flow to large - cap, low - valuation, and high - performance - stability sectors, and the market risk preference has decreased [5]. - **Reference View**: The main broad - based indexes will continue to adjust in a volatile manner, and structural differentiation may continue [5]. Gold - **Macro and Geopolitical Factors**: Geopolitical risks have not pushed up the price of gold as expected. Instead, the soaring oil price has strengthened inflation expectations, leading to a significant cooling of the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield have put pressure on the price of gold [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The price of spot gold fluctuates within a range and once fell below $5000 per ounce this week. The main pressure on the gold market comes from the reconstruction of interest rate expectations. The SPDR Gold ETF has continuously reduced its positions slightly. If the oil price continues to rise slowly, the dollar and the US Treasury yield may continue to be supported, and the price of gold may continue to fluctuate in the short term to digest the selling pressure [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a neutral position before the Fed's interest rate meeting. If the geopolitical situation eases and the oil price drops, there may be an opportunity to buy at a low price. In the medium - to - long term, the allocation value of gold still exists [7]. Silver - **External Price**: On March 17, the silver market continued to be under pressure, and the London silver was struggling around the $80 per ounce mark. The macro - suppression factors are still obvious, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation has been continuously suppressed due to inflation concerns caused by the Middle East situation. The strengthening dollar has made silver more expensive for non - US buyers [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Silver is experiencing a fierce game between its "commodity attribute" and "financial attribute". The support comes from strong industrial demand and continuous supply deficits, while the pressure comes from the increase in real interest rates and the long - short game in the speculative market. Although there is a supply shortage, a large number of short positions in the paper - silver market have formed a price - suppression mechanism. If the dollar index continues to rise, the silver price may test lower support levels; if the geopolitical situation eases and the dollar falls, the continuous supply shortage may push up the price [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term traders should pay attention to the breakthrough of key intervals and be flexible within the range. Before the Fed's monetary policy path becomes clear, strictly control the position to deal with the current high - volatility environment [8]. Chemical Industry Rubber - **Market Price**: The spot prices of domestic whole - latex, Thai smoked three - piece, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber, and 20 - grade rubber are 16,700 yuan/ton, 19,900 yuan/ton, 17,000 yuan/ton, and 15,200 yuan/ton respectively. The raw material prices in Haikou are 74.3 Thai baht/kg for smoked sheets, 73 Thai baht/kg for latex, 58.5 Thai baht/kg for cup rubber, and 70 Thai baht/kg for raw rubber [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The Shanghai rubber market remains neutral. The continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may have a negative impact on the demand for Shanghai rubber, but due to the off - season of rubber tapping, the raw material prices are still rising, so the downside space is limited. The raw material prices in Thailand are still at a high level, providing support for the rubber price. However, the domestic production areas are gradually starting to tap, and the supply is becoming more abundant. The blockade of the strait has increased the premium of energy - chemical products but also worried the market about the demand for natural rubber. The downstream demand shows that the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises last week was 78.73%, a month - on - month increase of 4.20% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.36%; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.80%, a month - on - month increase of 6.42% and a year - on - year increase of 2.81%. The inventory in Qingdao Bonded Area increased by 1.27% to 11.96 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.04% to 68.04 tons. Under the influence of multiple factors, the upward trend of Shanghai rubber may slow down and turn into a wide - range shock [10]. - **Reference View**: The main contract of Shanghai rubber will fluctuate around 16,400 - 17,500 yuan/ton [10]. Plastic - **Spot Information**: The mainstream spot prices in North China, East China, and South China are 8,414 yuan/ton, 8,665 yuan/ton, and 8,977 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 60 yuan/ton, 126 yuan/ton, and 105 yuan/ton [11]. - **Market Analysis**: On the supply side, the operating rate of China's polyethylene plants last week was 82.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5171%; the production affected by plant maintenance was 9.104 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.076 tons. On the demand side, the overall operating rate of polyethylene downstream enterprises last week was 33.83%. As of March 13, 2026, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 57.54 tons. On March 17, the closing price of L2605 was 8,496 yuan/ton, and the futures price declined. Geopolitical factors are expected to support the high price of crude oil, the cost side is strong, the downstream rigid demand may improve slightly but the procurement is cautious, the supply is expected to decrease, the inventory is maintained at a reasonable level, and the macro - situation is still uncertain. The polyethylene market is expected to fluctuate in a relatively strong range under the game of multiple factors, and the price is difficult to continue to rise significantly [11]. - **Reference View**: It is expected that plastics will fluctuate in a relatively strong range in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances [12]. Methanol - **Spot Information**: The spot price of methanol in Zhejiang is 2,865 yuan/ton, an upward fluctuation of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price in Xinjiang is 1,750 yuan/ton, the same as the previous trading day. The spot price in Hebei is 2,340 yuan/ton, the same as the previous trading day [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the main methanol futures contract MA605 is 2,847 yuan/ton, an upward fluctuation of 0.35% from the previous trading day. In terms of inventory, the total port inventory is 131.28 tons, with a significant reduction of 13.07 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the inventory in South China decreased by 3.51 tons, and the inventory in East China decreased by 9.56 tons. On the supply side, the upstream coal - to - methanol still has profits, and the operating rate of the domestic methanol industry is 90.15%, maintaining a high level; on the demand side, the loss of MTO profits has increased, the operating rate of the device is maintained at 84.08%; the operating rate of the MTBE device is 68.94%, and the demand for traditional downstream products (acetic acid, formaldehyde) is still weak, mainly for rigid - demand procurement, suppressing the price elasticity. Internationally, the Middle East conflict has blocked the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Brent crude oil has rebounded again, with the increase once expanding to about 4%. The cost support of methanol has been strengthened; the risk of supply interruption of Iranian methanol supports the price [13]. - **Reference View**: Methanol futures may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, presenting a pattern of strong geopolitics and weak reality. Pay close attention to the navigation situation of the Strait of Hormuz and the dynamics of Iranian devices. Track the Middle East situation and the destocking of port inventory, and be vigilant against the intensification of the negative feedback in the industrial chain [13]. PTA - **Spot Information**: The spot price in East China is 6,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan/ton [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The logistics risk in the strait has led to a shortage of PX supply, and domestic refineries have reduced their loads preventively, so the short - term cost support is strong. The supply of PTA is steadily increasing. In terms of device operation, a 3.6 - million - ton device in East China reduced its load on March 12, but other devices such as Yisheng New Materials and Dushan Energy have restarted or increased their loads one after another, and the overall supply has maintained a growth trend. The demand of the downstream polyester industry is slowly recovering. Among the sub - products, the output of polyester industrial yarn has increased significantly; the capacity utilization rate of PET chip fiber has increased from 81.37% to 86.22%, indicating that the downstream operation is gradually improving. However, the inventory of PTA factories has accumulated, mainly because the recovery rhythm of downstream demand is slower than the supply growth rate, and the market's concern about supply interruption has prompted more inventory building [14]. - **Reference View**: In the short term, continue to pay attention to geopolitical disturbances. In addition, the recovery of downstream demand is still the key [14]. Ethylene Glycol - **Spot Information**: The spot price in East China is 4,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton [15]. - **Market Analysis**: In March, multiple domestic coal - based and oil - based devices are planned for maintenance, and external Iranian devices are shut down (with an annual capacity of 450,000 tons). Coupled with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the import expectation has decreased, and the domestic ethylene glycol production has decreased significantly, and the supply side has continued to tighten. The demand of the downstream polyester industry remains stable, and the capacity utilization rate is maintained at around 83.83%. The downstream inventory - building willingness has increased. It is worth noting that the polyester industry accounts for 94% of ethylene glycol consumption and is greatly affected by the cost side in the short term [15]. - **Reference View**: Pay attention to the trend of the cost - side oil price and downstream demand, and it will fluctuate in a short - term range [15]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area is 1,236 yuan/ton, the same as the previous period. There are slight differences among different regions. The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in East China is 1,250 yuan/ton, in North China is 1,280 yuan/ton, and in Central China is 1,230 yuan/ton, all the same as the previous period [16]. - **Market Analysis**: On the supply side, the overall operating rate of soda ash last week was 87%, a month - on - month increase of 0.23%. The soda ash output was 80.92 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.22 tons. There were few maintenance enterprises during the week, and the supply remained at a high level. In terms of inventory, the manufacturer's inventory last week was 1.9317 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,500 tons, a decrease of 0.80%, and the inventory decreased slightly. It is understood that the social inventory has increased steadily and is close to 280,000 tons. The demand performance is average. Overall, there is no major change in the soda ash market, and the fundamentals are still weak. However, the international situation is changeable, and it is expected that the market will still fluctuate highly, but the upside space may be limited due to the fundamental pressure. Pay attention to macro and policy dynamics, enterprise maintenance situations, and inventory changes [16]. - **Reference View**: The market continued to decline slightly yesterday. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high in the short term [16]. Glass - **Spot Information**: The market price of 5 - mm large - plate glass in the Shahe area is 1,044 yuan/ton, the same as the previous period. There are slight differences among different regions. The market price of 5 - mm large - plate glass in East China is 1,250 yuan/ton, in North China is 1,070 yuan/ton, and in Central China is 1,090 yuan/ton, all the same as the previous period [17][18]. - **Market Analysis**: On the supply side, the operating rate of float - glass last week was 71.05%, a month - on - month increase of 0.24%. The weekly glass output was 1.0333 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6,400 tons. One production line in North China was ignited, and one production line in North China and one in Northwest China were shut down