研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 12 月 09 日 研究员：王玺圳、刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F03118729、F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0022817、Z0014425 联系方式： | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 13740 | -10 | 158,053 | -6312 | 478,567 | -10495 | | CF05合约 | 13725 | 0 | 96,459 | 323 | 468,751 | 16921 | | CF09合约 | 13860 | 15 | 2,355 | -360 | 15,108 | 461 | | CY01合约 | 19795 | 20 | 344 | -980 | 1424 | -181 | | CY05合约 | 19950 | 45 | 8 | 5 | 70 | -2 | | CY09合约 | 20085 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | | | | | 现货价 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 12 月 08 日 研究员：王玺圳、刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F03118729、F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0022817、Z0014425 联系方式： :wangxizhen_qh@chin astock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 13750 | 0 | 164,365 | 13916 | 489,062 | -8717 | | CF05合约 | 13725 | 5 | 96,136 | 7406 | 451,830 | 15893 | | CF09合约 | 13845 | -10 | 2,715 | 1153 | 14,647 | -91 | | CY01合约 | 19775 | -20 | 1324 | -799 | 1605 | -696 | | CY05合约 | 19905 | -75 | 3 | -1 | 72 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Equity Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Silicomanganese, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Black Metal, Soda Ash, Glass, Jiao Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Crude Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] Core Viewpoints - The market divergence is expected to gradually be digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The market adjustment provides an opportunity to lay out for the index's further upward movement next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and cost supports, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [1]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial - Equity Index: Market divergence will be digested during adjustment, with potential for further upward movement. Central Huijin's support limits downside risk. Market adjustment provides a layout opportunity, and traders can build long positions during the adjustment and use the stock - index futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned by the central bank, suppressing the upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: There is a risk of price decline after the digestion of short - term positive sentiment [1]. - Aluminum Oxide: Domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and prices are under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the price changes at the mine end [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - positive factors and with oversupply, there is a risk of price decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - Nickel: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the macro sentiment has improved. Indonesia's restrictions on nickel - related smelting projects have limited impact. Short - term nickel prices may fluctuate with the macro situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and the medium - to - long - term supply of nickel will remain in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro sentiment has improved, and raw materials have stopped falling. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate and rebound in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production situation of steel mills [1]. - Tin: After the digestion of macro - positive sentiment, due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, tin prices have strengthened. However, beware of the risk of short - term over - rise and fall. The medium - to - long - term outlook is bullish [1]. - Precious Metals: Gold may fluctuate within a range. Silver's short - term price will continue to fluctuate sharply. Platinum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For palladium, the short - term strategy is to short at high levels, and the medium - term [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers are reluctant to sell and are strong in price support [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - driving force is increasing in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - arbitrage positions to enter. Do not chase high in single - side trading [1]. - Iron Ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - Manganese Ore and Silicomanganese: The short - term production profit is poor, with cost support, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strong [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, but with average supply and demand, there is great resistance to price increase [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment may start around mid - December. For now, use a short - term strategy for single - side trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the peak season [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Soybean: China's purchases support the US market. Brazilian weather lacks obvious speculation themes, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Pulp: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the short - term price will fluctuate [1]. - Log: The fundamental situation has weakened but has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is stabilizing, with demand support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is postponed, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC + policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand during the 14th Five - Year Plan may be falsified, and supply is sufficient. The profit is high [1]. - BR Rubber: The price support of butadiene is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a positive expectation. High inventory restricts price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - PTA: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, and there are positive factors such as domestic PTA export improvement [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, prices are falling, and cost support is weakening [1]. - Short Fiber: The price follows cost closely, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - Styrene: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced US gasoline demand [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and anti - dumping [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1]. - Caustic Soda: There are factors such as delivery from Guangxi alumina plants, high - load operation, and potential squeezing risks [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas market returns to a loose fundamental situation. The CP/FEI has rebounded. The price will fluctuate within a range after a decline [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is in a state of continuous volume contraction and low volatility, with pro - cyclical sectors showing a structural upward trend. For different futures products, there are various trends and influencing factors, including macro - economic data, policy expectations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][4]. - The bond market has a fragile trading sentiment, with ultra - long bonds leading the decline. The market is affected by expectations of monetary and fiscal policies, as well as institutional behaviors [5][6][7]. - The precious metals market lacks clear direction due to a dull macro - news background. Gold is oscillating at a high level, while silver is in a corrective phase [8][9][11]. - The shipping index of container transportation to Europe is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern, with the spot market stabilizing and the peak - season expectation slightly recovering [12]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different market situations. For example, copper prices are strongly supported, while alumina is expected to have limited short - term decline space [17][19]. - In the black metals sector, steel mills are reducing production, and the iron ore market is expected to oscillate. Coke and coking coal markets are facing supply - demand imbalances and price fluctuations [49][52][60]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different outlooks. For example, the soybean meal market is waiting for the USDA report, and the pig market is in a tug - of - war between upstream and downstream [64][66]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products such as PX, PTA, and short - fibers have different supply - demand relationships and price trends [82][84][86]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: A - share major indices were narrowly oscillating. The CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. rose, while the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose [2][3]. - News: Domestically, the market regulatory authority issued a standard for take - out platform services. Overseas, the Bank of Japan officials made statements about monetary policy [3][4]. - Capital flow: A - share trading volume decreased by over 100 billion yuan, and the central bank had a net cash withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan [4]. - Operation suggestion: Be cautious and wait and see in the short term. Consider a bull spread of put options on the CSI 1000 when there are pull - backs [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed down across the board, with the 30 - year contract leading the decline. Bond yields generally rose [5][6]. - Capital flow: The central bank had a net cash withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan, and the inter - bank market liquidity remained loose [6]. - Operation suggestion: Temporarily wait and see. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. Consider participating in varieties within 10 - year if the market sentiment improves. The curve strategy may tend to steepen [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: As of the week of November 29, US employment data showed a pattern of low lay - offs and low recruitment. Gold oscillated at a high level, while silver corrected. Platinum and palladium also declined [8][9]. - Outlook: Gold may face resistance at high levels, and short - term trading can consider selling out - of - the - money put options. Silver may see a strong short - term price trend, but attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and inventory reduction. Platinum is expected to oscillate upward in the medium - to - long term [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index to Europe - Index: As of December 1, the SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index declined [12]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different situations [12]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated, and the spot market stabilized. It is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: Copper prices rose, and the discount of electrolytic copper increased. The overall trading was poor [13]. - Macro: The US manufacturing PMI was in a contraction range, and the ADP employment data was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts [13]. - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate was at a low level, and the 2026 long - term premium proposed by Codelco was significantly higher. The production of electrolytic copper in November increased [14][15]. - Demand: The weekly operating rates of copper rod processing decreased, but the downstream demand showed strong resilience [16]. - Inventory: LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [16]. - Logic: With the significant increase in LME cancelled warrants, copper prices are strongly supported. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will support the upward movement of the bottom price [17]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips, with the main support level at 88,500 - 89,500 [17]. Alumina - Spot: Alumina prices were stable or slightly declined, and the supply pattern was gradually becoming looser [18]. - Supply: In November, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina decreased slightly month - on - month, mainly due to the phased production reduction in the north [18]. - Inventory: Alumina inventories increased [19]. - Logic: The market is in a state of high supply, high inventory, and cost support. It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2,575 - 2,775 yuan/ton, with limited short - term decline space [19]. Other Non - Ferrous Metals Similar analysis methods are used for other non - ferrous metals such as aluminum, zinc, tin, etc., considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [20][28][33]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: Steel prices were stable, and the basis of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed differently [47]. - Cost and profit: The cost of coking coal and coke decreased, and steel mill profits slightly recovered [48]. - Supply: Iron ore production increased slightly year - on - year, and steel production decreased slightly [48]. - Demand: Domestic demand was weak, and exports remained at a high level. The apparent demand in December was expected to decline seasonally [49]. - Inventory: Steel inventories decreased [49]. - View: Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Consider a long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage [49]. Iron Ore - Spot: Iron ore prices declined [50]. - Futures: The main iron ore futures contract declined slightly [50]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties changed [50]. - Demand: Steel mill production reduction continued, and iron ore demand decreased [51]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the port arrival volume decreased [51]. - Inventory: Port inventories increased, and steel mill inventories decreased [52]. - View: Iron ore futures are expected to oscillate in the range of 750 - 820 [52]. Coking Coal and Coke Similar analysis methods are used for coking coal and coke, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [54][57]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Spot market: Domestic soybean meal prices were stable or slightly declined, and trading volume decreased [61]. - Fundamental news: Analysts expected changes in US soybean export sales, and the soybean sowing progress in Brazil was high [61][62]. - Market outlook: The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to domestic soybean procurement [64]. Other Agricultural Products Similar analysis methods are used for other agricultural products such as pigs, corn, and sugar, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and policy impacts [65][67][70]. Commodity Futures - Energy and Chemicals PX - Spot: PX prices continued to correct, and the market trading atmosphere was average [82]. - Profit: PX profit margins changed [82]. - Supply - demand: PX supply may contract in the first quarter, and demand was relatively strong [82]. - Market outlook: PX is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [82]. Other Energy and Chemical Products Similar analysis methods are used for other energy and chemical products such as PTA, short - fibers, and ethylene glycol, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [83][86][89].

行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 12 月 5 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉震荡调整。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 15005 元/吨，较上一 交易日涨 25 元/吨。当前 2025/26 年度北疆机采 3130/29~30B/杂 3.5 内一口价较 多报价暂在 14800~14950 公 ...

行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 12 月 4 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 每日报告 三、数据概览 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉震荡调整。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 15005 元/吨，较上一 交易日涨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil may face a risk of weakening and falling after a short - term rebound, maintaining a near - strong and far - weak view. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures were boosted by Malaysian palm oil in the early session. - For soybean oil, the demand from the US renewable fuel industry remains resilient, but the international crude oil decline may drag down CBOT soybean oil. In the domestic market, the short - term market may be dragged down, but the import cost of soybeans will support the market and limit the decline of the basis. - The supply of domestic soybean meal remains loose overall, but the supply in some regions is tightening, and the basis has short - term support. The unilateral market is unlikely to show an upward trend, and it is expected to maintain a volatile pattern [1]. Pig Industry - The supply - side pressure may be less than previously expected, but the demand lacks highlights. The price of pigs is expected to maintain a volatile and weak structure. The strategy of inter - month reverse arbitrage can continue to be held, and the unilateral price is expected to continue to bottom out [3]. Meal Industry - The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern, but the supply in some regions is tightening, providing short - term support for the basis. It is difficult to see an upward trend in the unilateral market. The market should continue to focus on domestic purchases of US and Brazilian soybeans, and soybean meal is expected to maintain a volatile trend with light short - term trading [6]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - In the short term, the futures price is strong and hits a new high due to tight supply and strong spot prices. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of corn supply and inventory changes. If they recover, it will limit the price increase space [8]. Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures closed lower, and the raw sugar remains in a weak trend. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend [12]. Cotton Industry - In the short term, the cotton price will fluctuate within a range. ICE cotton futures closed slightly lower, supported by the weakening US dollar. In the domestic market, the purchase price of seed cotton is falling, and Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure, but the support below is still strong [13]. Egg Industry - The supply pressure is expected to ease marginally, but overall pressure still exists. The market trading is light, and the terminal consumption is weak. The futures price is expected to maintain a weak pattern at the bottom [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8620 yuan/ton, the futures price of Y2601 is 8286 yuan/ton, and the basis is 334 yuan/ton. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong is 8720 yuan/ton, the futures price of P2601 is 8730 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 10 yuan/ton. The盘面 import cost in Guangzhou Port in January is 9195.1 yuan/ton, and the盘面 import profit is - 465 yuan/ton. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 10050 yuan/ton, the futures price of Ol601 is 9711 yuan/ton, and the basis is 330 yuan/ton [1]. Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract of live pigs is 11925 yuan/ton, the price of the January contract is 11490 yuan/ton, and the price of the May contract is 11925 yuan/ton. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions such as Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan range from 11100 - 12410 yuan/ton. The sample slaughter volume increased by 0.25% to 210037, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.38% to 18.21 yuan/kg, and the weekly price of piglets decreased by 2.86% to 17.00 yuan/kg [3]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 3060 yuan/ton, the futures price of M2601 is 3046 yuan/ton, and the basis is 14 yuan/ton. The盘面 import profit for Brazilian soybeans in February is 53 yuan/ton. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2400 yuan/ton, the futures price of RM2601 is 2408 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 8 yuan/ton. The盘面 import profit for Canadian rapeseed in January is 670 yuan/ton [6]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - **Corn**: The price of the January contract is 2259 yuan/ton, the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port is 2300 yuan/ton, and the basis is 41 yuan/ton. The north - south trade profit is 59 yuan/ton, and the import profit is 352 yuan/ton. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the January contract is 2562 yuan/ton, the spot price in Changchun is 2590 yuan/ton, and the basis is 28 yuan/ton. The profit of Shandong starch is 1 yuan/ton [8]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the January contract is 5366 yuan/ton, the price of the May contract is 5297 yuan/ton, and the price of ICE raw sugar is 14.92 cents/pound. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming are 5420 yuan/ton and 5400 yuan/ton respectively. The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sales increased by 9.17% to 1048.00 million tons [12]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the January contract is 13780 yuan/ton, the price of the May contract is 13750 yuan/ton, and the price of ICE US cotton is 64.45 cents/pound. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton is 14862 yuan/ton, and the CC Index is 15005 yuan/ton. The commercial inventory increased by 24.2% to 363.97 million tons, and the industrial inventory increased by 4.9% to 93.14 million tons [13]. Egg Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of the January contract is 3138 yuan/500KG, and the price of the February contract is 3052 yuan/500KG. - **Spot Market**: The egg price in the producing area is 3.05 yuan/jin, the egg - to - feed ratio is 2.32, and the breeding profit is - 27.35 yuan/feather. The theoretical in - laying hen inventory in December is expected to decline [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The supply side has a large number of new cotton flowers on the market, with a significant increase in production in the new year, but the increase may be less than expected. The demand side has average recent orders, but the previous negative factors have basically been reflected in the market. The current cotton sales progress is at a high level in the same period over the years. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will mostly fluctuate strongly. The future trend of US cotton is likely to be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a fluctuating and strengthening trend. For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Market**: CF01, CF05, CF09, CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts all showed price declines. The trading volume of most contracts increased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 13780, down 20, with a trading volume of 229,172 (an increase of 52245), and an open interest of 522,168 (a decrease of 21990) [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price was 15005 yuan/ton, up 69; the Cot A price was 74.95 cents/pound; the FC Index:M: arrival price was 74.07, down 0.09. The prices of some other spot products such as polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, etc. also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Spread**: In the cotton and yarn markets, there were changes in inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 30, down 15; the CY01 - CF01 spread was 6145, down 60 [2]. Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: On December 3, 2025, the out - of - Xinjiang cotton road transport price index was 0.1940 yuan/ton·km, unchanged from the previous period. In October 2025, Japan's clothing imports remained at a high level, with the import value reaching 364.853 billion yen (equivalent to 2.418 billion US dollars), a year - on - year increase of 4.53% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.99%. On December 2, 2025, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 5.94 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day; the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 6.68 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [5]. - **Trading Logic**: In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be some selling and hedging pressure in the market. Although this year's cotton production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. After the peak season, the market has entered a relatively off - season. Overall, the supply is abundant but the increase may be less than expected, and the demand is average, but previous negative factors have been reflected in the market, so Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a fluctuating and strengthening trend. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [7]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: Last night, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated strongly, while cotton yarn futures fluctuated weakly, with an overall bearish profit outlook. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market was average, with few new orders and mostly small orders. High - count yarns still had good sales. The all - cotton clothing grey fabric market was weak, and fabric mills were mainly focused on inventory reduction. The anti - down fabric in Nantong Home Textile Market in Jiangsu still had continuous sales, but the profit margin was lower than expected [8]. Options - **Option Contract Data**: On November 24, 2025, for option contracts such as CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC, information such as the underlying contract price, closing price, price change rate, implied volatility, etc. was provided. For example, the CF601C13400.CZC contract had a closing price of 183.00, a price increase rate of 71.0%, and an implied volatility of 6.7% [10]. - **Volatility and Strategy**: The 10 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatilities of different option contracts were different. The trading volume of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for options [10][11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodities, presenting market conditions, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each. It suggests different trading strategies based on the characteristics of each sector, such as short - term trading, long - term investment, and arbitrage opportunities [1] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share market declined with reduced trading volume on Tuesday. Major indices and four major stock index futures contracts all fell. There are preparations for commercial real - estate REITs and new regulations on infrastructure REITs. A - share market trading volume decreased, and there was a net capital withdrawal. Short - term strategies include lightly selling December put options and gradually building long - spread positions on dips [2][3][4] - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures closed down across the board, with bond yields generally rising. The central bank's bond - buying scale was less than expected, and the bond market sentiment was weak. Although there was a net capital withdrawal in the open market, the inter - bank funds were still relatively loose. It is recommended to reduce left - side operations, temporarily wait and see, and pay attention to the implementation of the bond - fund redemption fee new regulations. Also, consider the positive - spread strategy for the 2603 contract [5][6] Precious Metals - **Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium**: Global central banks' expectations of monetary easing have decreased. Gold weakened, while silver continued to rise due to tight inventory. Platinum was dragged down by gold, and palladium rose due to industrial support. In the long - term, the bull market in precious metals is expected to continue, but there are short - term fluctuations. Different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [7][9][10] Shipping Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European line index and related routes' indices declined. The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends. The futures market is expected to be volatile in the short term [11][12] Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the spot premium stabilized. There are concerns about potential supply shortages, and copper prices are expected to remain high in the long - term. Short - term trading should focus on December interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and pay attention to support levels [12][13][16] - **Alumina**: The visible inventory continued to increase, and the market supply was still abundant. The price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation, and the main contract's reference range has shifted downwards [17][18][19] - **Aluminum**: Driven by both macro and micro factors, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong in the short - term. It is necessary to pay attention to the Fed's monetary policy and domestic inventory reduction [19][20][21] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand maintains resilience. The price is expected to have strong short - term performance, and an arbitrage strategy can be considered [21][22][24] - **Zinc**: The supply reduction expectation provides support, but the spot trading is dull. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the TC inflection point and refined - zinc inventory changes [24][25][27] - **Tin**: There are disturbances on the supply side, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and buy on dips, while paying attention to macro changes [27][29][31] - **Nickel**: The price is oscillating within a range, and the upward driving force is limited due to fundamental pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [31][32][33] - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillated slightly higher, but the fundamental pressure has not improved significantly. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to steel mills' production - cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [33][34][36] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is oscillating, and market differences may increase in the future. It is recommended to wait and see, as the market faces issues such as large - scale factory resumption and off - season demand [37][38][40] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price opened lower and fell. The supply is expected to exceed demand in December, and it is recommended to wait and see in the futures market and take profit on put options [40][41][42] - **Industrial Silicon**: The demand is poor, and the futures price oscillated downwards. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the price range is estimated [43][44][44] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel mills are reducing production. The steel price is expected to oscillate within a range, and a long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage strategy can be considered [45][46][47] - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased. The iron - ore price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the operating range is given [48][50][51] - **Coking Coal**: The price of domestic coking coal decreased, and the price of Mongolian coal stabilized. The futures price rebounded after an oversold situation. It is recommended to view it as an oscillation and consider an inverse - spread strategy [52][53][55] - **Coke**: The first - round price cut in December has been implemented, and the port trading price has declined. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and an inverse - spread strategy is recommended [56][57][58] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The market lacks guidance, and both domestic and international markets are mainly oscillating. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to China's soybean - purchasing trends [59][60][61] - **Pigs**: The spot price pressure remains, and the month - to - month inverse - spread position can be held. The pig price is expected to oscillate weakly [63][64][64] - **Corn**: The spot price shows a differentiated trend, and the futures price is oscillating. It is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm of corn supply [65][66][66] - **Sugar**: The raw - sugar price is in a bearish pattern, and the domestic sugar price is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to maintain a bottom - oscillation mindset [67][68][70] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic cotton price is oscillating within a range. It is necessary to wait for the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report [70][71][72] - **Eggs**: The egg price is stable with a slight increase, but the pressure is still high. The futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [73][74][74] - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian palm - oil price rose, and the domestic palm - oil price followed suit. The domestic soybean - oil price is oscillating narrowly. Different outlooks and strategies are provided for each [75][76][77] - **Jujubes**: The price in the production area has weakened, and the futures price is oscillating weakly. It is necessary to pay attention to the terminal consumption during the peak season [78][79][79] - **Apples**: The demand for stored apples is average, and the sales are slow. The market situation is relatively stable [80][80][80] Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand expectation has improved, and the short - term oil price is strong. The short - term support for PX is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 7000 [80][81][81] - **PTA**: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. The rebound space for PTA is limited. It is recommended to view it as a high - level oscillation and consider a low - level positive - spread strategy [82][83][83] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the processing fee is mainly compressed. The price follows the raw - material fluctuations, and the processing fee should be shorted on rallies [84][85][85] - **Bottle - Chip**: The supply - demand situation in December remains loose. The price follows the raw - material fluctuations, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. It is recommended to short the processing fee [86][87][87] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to expected device maintenance, the inventory - building amplitude in December will narrow, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose. It is expected to oscillate within a range [88][88][88] - **Pure Benzene**: The port inventory is increasing, the supply - demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds [89][90][90] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the profit has improved, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to view it as a wide - range oscillation [91][92][92] - **LLDPE**: The overall trading is weak, and the spot price has little change. It is expected to oscillate within a range [93][93][94] - **PP**: There are many unexpected device maintenance events, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [94][94][94] - **Methanol**: The spot price is strong, and the trading is acceptable. It is recommended to short the 05MTO spread [95][95][95] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand still has pressure, and the price is expected to run weakly [95][96][96] - **PVC**: The short - term futures price has rebounded, but the supply - demand contradiction has not improved. The price is expected to remain weak at the bottom [98][98][98] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda - ash production has rebounded after a decline, and the futures price is oscillating. The glass sales have declined, and the spot price has fallen. Different strategies are recommended for each [99][100][101] - **Natural Rubber**: The overseas raw - material price has stopped rising and started to fall, and the rubber price is mainly oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see [102][104][104] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Driven by butadiene export news, the BR price has risen strongly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 10800 [104][106][106]

第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (250,000) (200,000) (150,000) (100,000) (50,000) 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 Wind商品综合 Wind软商品 Wind油脂油料 Wind贵金属 Wind非金属建材 近五日商品期货板块持仓变动 2025-12-02 2025-12-01 2025-11-28 2025-11-27 2025-11-26 热点资讯 1.国家发改委主任郑栅洁发表署名文章指出，"十五五"规划建议将建设现代化产业体系这一任务摆在12个领域首位，关键是 优化提升传统产业，培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业，加快新能源、新材料、航空航天、低空经济等战略性新兴产业集群发展。 2.磷酸铁锂行业正在发生一场集体提价行动，近期多家龙头企业已向客户发出明确的涨价通知。龙蟠科技工作人员称，近期行 业确实有相关涨价的行情，公司正与客户沟通涨价事由。 3.经合组织发布最新经济展望报告，今明两年，预计全球经济增速分别为3.2%和2.9%，与 ...