Industry Investment Ratings - Macrofinance: Index (Long-term bullish, short-term shock adjustment), Treasury bonds (Shock), Copper (Shock), Aluminum (Shock), Alumina (Shock), Zinc (Shock), Nickel (High-level shock), Stainless steel (High-level shock), Tin (Potential for increase), Precious metals (High-level wide-range shock), Industrial silicon and polysilicon (Bearish), Lithium carbonate (No clear rating), Rebar (Shock), Iron ore (Shock), Coke (Shock), Coking coal (Bullish), Anthracite (Bullish), Palm oil (Shock), Soybean oil (Bullish), Rapeseed oil (Bearish), Cotton (Shock), Sugar (Bearish), Corn (Shock), Soybeans (Bearish), Pulp (Shock), Logs (Shock), Live pigs (Shock), Fuel oil (Shock), Bitumen (Shock), BR rubber (Bullish), PTA (Shock), Ethylene glycol (Shock), Styrene (Bearish), Urea (Shock), PF (Shock), PVC (Shock), LPG (Bullish), Container shipping European line (Shock) [1] Core Views - The policy aims for a "slow bull" in the stock index rather than suppressing the market. The short-term shock adjustment space is expected to be limited, and long-term bulls can choose opportunities to layout. Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. The downstream demand is relatively pressured, and with the US suspending the tax on key minerals, the short-term concern about copper hoarding has eased, causing copper prices to fall from high levels. The supply of nickel ore remains tight, but the continuous accumulation of global nickel inventories may restrict the rise of nickel prices. The prices of precious metals are expected to shift to high-level wide-range shocks. The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are bearish. The prices of black metals are affected by weak reality and strong expectations. The prices of agricultural products are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather. The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical situations, and cost support [1] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - Index: The stock index rose strongly in the first half of the week and then adjusted with policy regulation. The short-term shock adjustment space is limited, and long-term bulls can choose opportunities to layout [1] - Treasury bonds: Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Pay attention to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: The downstream demand is relatively pressured, and with the US suspending the tax on key minerals, the short-term concern about copper hoarding has eased, causing copper prices to fall from high levels [1] - Aluminum: The recent industrial drive is limited, and the macro sentiment has weakened, causing aluminum prices to fall from high levels [1] - Alumina: The alumina production capacity still has a large release space, and the industrial side weakens the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1] - Zinc: The cost center of the zinc fundamentals is stable, but the inventory pressure is obvious. The current price has insufficient fundamental support, and the zinc price fluctuates in a range under the repeated macro sentiment [1] - Nickel: The supply of nickel ore remains tight, but the continuous accumulation of global nickel inventories may restrict the rise of nickel prices. The short-term nickel price fluctuates at a high level and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy changes in Indonesia, the macro sentiment, and the futures positions [1] - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel iron continues to rise, the social inventory of stainless steel decreases slightly, and the steel mill's production schedule in January increases. Pay attention to the actual production situation of the steel mill. The stainless steel futures fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term [1] - Tin: The short-term macro sentiment is repeated, and the tin price has corrected. However, the supply vulnerability of tin ore still exists, and it still has the driving force to rise. Pay attention to the opportunity of low absorption [1] - Precious metals: The geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the rise of precious metal prices has slowed down. The silver price has fallen under pressure. The short-term gold and silver prices are expected to shift to high-level wide-range shocks. In the long term, it is recommended to allocate platinum at low levels or choose the arbitrage strategy of [long platinum, short palladium] [1] Black Metals - Rebar: The expectation is strong, but the spot is weak, and the sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth. The continuous rise kinetic energy is insufficient. Unilaterally long orders should leave the market and wait and see; participate in the positive arbitrage position in the spot and futures [1] - Iron ore: The sector rotates, but the upper pressure of iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long at this position. The weak reality and strong expectation are intertwined. The actual supply and demand continue to be weak, and the energy consumption double control and anti-involution may disturb the supply [1] - Coke: The short-term market sentiment warms up, and the supply and demand are supported, but the medium-term supply and demand continue to be surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - Coking coal: If the expectation of "capacity reduction" continues to ferment and the spot replenishes the inventory before the Spring Festival, coking coal may still have room to rise, but the actual rise space is difficult to judge, and the volatility increases after a large rise. It is necessary to be cautious [1] - Anthracite: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural Products - Cotton: The domestic new crop production expectation is strong, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream start-up maintains a low level, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "supported but no driving force." Pay attention to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document on direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas in the first quarter of next year, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, the weather during the planting period, and the peak season demand from March to April [1] - Sugar: The global sugar is in surplus, and the domestic new crop supply increases. The short consensus is relatively consistent. If the disk continues to fall, the lower cost support is strong, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Pay attention to the changes in the capital side [1] - Corn: The grain sales progress of Northeast corn is relatively fast, the port inventory is low, and the middle and lower reaches have a certain replenishment demand before the festival. The short-term spot is still relatively strong, and the disk is expected to fluctuate in a range [1] - Soybeans: With the progress of the Brazilian harvest, the Brazilian CNF premium is expected to reflect the selling pressure of the soybean harvest. Coupled with the pressure on the rapeseed sector from the Sino-Canadian easing, the MO5 is expected to be under pressure, and the MO5 - M09 is expected to be in a reverse arbitrage [1] - Pulp: The pulp fell today due to the decline of the commodity macro. The overall did not break through the shock range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has recently shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding. It is expected that the further decline space of the futures price is limited. However, the external quotation in January still shows a slight decline, and the spot and futures markets of logs lack driving factors for rising. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] - Live pigs: The spot and futures of live pigs gradually stabilize. The demand support and the unsold slaughter weight, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Products - Fuel oil: OPEC+ suspends production increase until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement affects. The US sanctions the Venezuelan crude oil export. The short-term supply and demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five-Year Plan rush work is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The asphalt profit is high [1] - Bitumen: The raw material cost support is strong. The spot-futures price difference rebounds greatly. The intermediate inventory increases [1] - BR rubber: The disk position decreases, and the new warehouse receipts increase. The BR increase slows down periodically. The spot leads the rise to repair the basis, and the BR continues to pay attention to the upward driving force above 12,000. The BD/BR listing price continues to be raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber narrows. The overseas cracking device capacity is cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The naphtha tax also has a positive support for the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high operation and high inventory, and the transaction center is average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber [1] - PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, and this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The PX fundamentals are indeed supported, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. The domestic PTA maintains high operation. The gasoline price difference is still at a high level, which supports the aromatics [1] - Ethylene glycol: The market spreads the news that two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, with a total annual production capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline due to the stimulation of supply-side news. The current polyester downstream start-up rate maintains above 90%, and the demand performance slightly exceeds expectations [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. The suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while the buyers insist on pressing prices due to the weak downstream polymer demand and profit compression. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a bullish sentiment due to the export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward driving force needs to pay attention to the drive of the overseas market [1] - Urea: The export sentiment eases slightly, and the domestic demand is insufficient. The upper space is limited. The lower has the support of anti-involution and the cost side [1] - PF: The geopolitical conflict intensifies, and the crude oil has a rising risk. The maintenance decreases, and the operation load is at a high level. The long-distance arrival increases the supply. The downstream demand operation weakens. The price returns to a reasonable range [1] - PVC: There is less global production in 2026, and the future expectation is optimistic. The fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate is cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing to export later. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the PVC production capacity to be cleared [1] - LPG: The January CP rises unexpectedly, and the cost support of imported gas is strong. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East escalates, and the short-term risk premium rises. The EIA weekly C3 inventory accumulation trend slows down, and it is expected to gradually turn to destocking. The domestic port inventory also decreases [1] - Container shipping European line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. The airlines are still cautious in their tentative re-navigation. The pre-festival replenishment demand still exists [1]

Core Insights - Tajikistan's trade with Iran is projected to reach $484 million in 2025, marking a 28% increase [1] - Tajikistan imports $371 million worth of goods from Iran and exports $113 million to Iran [1] - Iran has become Tajikistan's fifth-largest trading partner [1] Trade Dynamics - Tajikistan's main imports from Iran include petrochemical products, construction materials, and food [1] - The primary exports from Tajikistan to Iran consist of raw materials such as aluminum ingots and cotton fibers [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][6][8] Group 2: Report Core Views - For cotton, in the short - term, the domestic market faces downstream and price - difference pressures with a risk of high - level correction. In the long - term, the upward space depends on policy implementation. The global market has short - term supply pressure and weak consumption, while the US cotton is in a low - valuation range [2] - For sugar, the 2025/26 global sugar market is in surplus. In the short - term, the trade flow is in a tight balance, and in the long - term, the market should not be overly pessimistic. The domestic market has increasing supply and inventory pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [4][6] - For pulp, overseas supply is disrupted, and there is a pre - Spring Festival restocking expectation. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upward height depends on demand improvement and inventory digestion [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,675 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton (- 0.91%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,727 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,972 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [1] - India's 2025/26 cotton production increased by 130,000 tons, domestic demand by 170,000 tons, and exports decreased by 50,000 tons compared to last month's assessment. Compared with the previous year, the ending inventory increased by 800,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is on the market, with high supply pressure and weak consumption. The US cotton export is slow, and it is under short - term pressure. Domestically, the 2025/26 cotton production increased, the commercial inventory rose seasonally, the downstream orders declined, and the inventory increased. The annual supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possible inventory shortage at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Neutral. Be vigilant against high - level correction in the short term, and the long - term upward space depends on policy implementation [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,280 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (- 0.36%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,215 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [2] - As of January 12, 2026, Punjab, India had crushed over 18.647 million tons of sugarcane, producing 1.712 million tons of sugar [3] Market Analysis - The global 2025/26 sugar market is in surplus. In the short term, the trade flow is in a tight balance, and in the long term, the market should not be overly pessimistic. Domestically, sugar production is increasing, the supply is growing seasonally, and the import pressure remains high [4][5] Strategy - Neutral. The price may oscillate at the bottom in the short - to - medium term, with limited downward space [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,436 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton (- 1.06%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,515 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,090 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton [6] - The import wood pulp spot market price turned weak. The price of imported softwood pulp in some markets decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, and the price of imported hardwood pulp in some markets decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills had shutdown and maintenance. Demand: European port inventory decreased, and domestic port inventory was high but decreased slightly in December. The expanding paper production capacity will increase the demand for pulp [7] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, and the upward height depends on demand and inventory [8]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Cotton and Sugar Markets - **Key Trends**: The cotton market in 2025 experienced significant fluctuations due to U.S.-China relations, inventory tightness, and price volatility. The sugar market in Brazil is influenced by drought conditions and production choices between sugar and ethanol. Cotton Market Insights - **Price Fluctuations**: Domestic cotton prices in China saw a rapid decline before the Qingming Festival, followed by a recovery due to tight inventory and strong consumption. The first quarter was strong, but prices dropped significantly in March and April due to high tariffs, reaching annual lows. [1][2][3] - **Global Supply and Demand**: The USDA reported a slight adjustment in global cotton supply surplus for the 2025/26 season, with a total production estimate of 26 million tons, an increase of 2.1 million tons year-on-year. Major producers like China and Brazil had good harvests, while the U.S. production remained at a multi-year low. [4][60] - **Export Dynamics**: U.S. cotton exports decreased by 13% year-on-year, with China’s contracts down by 54%, while Vietnam's increased by 46%. [4][61] - **Consumption Resilience**: Despite global supply being slightly loose, cotton consumption remained resilient, particularly in major textile exporting countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh, which saw significant increases in operating rates. [5][66] Sugar Market Insights - **Brazilian Sugar Production**: In 2025, Brazil's sugarcane crushing volume decreased by 2.36% year-on-year, but the sugar production increased by 0.86% due to a higher sugar-to-ethanol production ratio. Drought conditions significantly impacted sugarcane yield. [17][18] - **Impact of Drought**: The drought in Brazil has historically led to significant declines in sugarcane yield, with the 2025 yield dropping to 75.67 tons per hectare, a decrease of 5.14% year-on-year. [19][79] - **Market Dynamics**: The sugar market is expected to experience a rebound after a prolonged decline, with predictions of a price increase in the third quarter of 2026 due to tightening supply conditions. [77] Key Risks and Considerations - **Geopolitical Factors**: The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, continue to influence market dynamics, especially in cotton procurement. [62][74] - **Weather Risks**: Future weather patterns, particularly the potential for drought due to El Niño, pose risks to both cotton and sugar production in major producing regions. [28][33][34] - **Inventory Levels**: Monitoring commercial inventory levels in China is crucial, as a tight inventory could lead to price increases, while high levels could suppress prices. [71][74] Additional Insights - **Chinese Cotton Market**: The domestic cotton market is characterized by strong demand and stable inventory levels, with production estimates ranging from 7.51 million to 7.73 million tons for the new season. [68][9] - **Future Production Policies**: There are policies aimed at reducing cotton planting areas in China, but achieving these targets may be challenging due to farmers' preferences for cotton over other crops. [69] - **Global Sugar Supply**: The sugar market is expected to remain oversupplied, with Brazil's production choices heavily influencing international sugar prices. [80][81] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends from the conference call records, focusing on the cotton and sugar markets, their dynamics, and the associated risks.

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Facing pressure from high inventory, slow - down in export growth, and policy changes, it may weaken further after potentially breaking through the 4000 - ringgit support. Domestic palm oil may also fall below 8500 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil may oscillate narrowly. In the domestic market, although it is in the Spring Festival stocking season, the supply of soybeans and soybean oil is sufficient, and the spot basis quotation will have limited short - term fluctuations [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Affected by macro - sentiment and international oil price drops, as well as news from Canada, the rapeseed oil futures market is under pressure [1]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are affected by the strong US dollar and demand concerns but supported by a strong export sales report. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. Zhengzhou cotton may face short - term adjustments, but the overall bullish trend remains [2]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures continue to decline due to increased sugar production in India and sufficient supply. The domestic sugar market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [3]. Red Dates - With sufficient supply and weak demand in the 2025/26 production season, the futures price of red dates is running weakly [4]. Apples - In the short - term, the price in the production area is weakly stable, and the market activity in the sales area has declined. In the long - term, high prices may suppress consumption, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak [7][12]. Corn and Corn Starch - The corn price in the Northeast is strong, and in North China, it oscillates narrowly. The demand side has different inventory situations. In the short - term, the corn price is supported by supply tightness and pre - holiday stocking, but the increase is limited by policy auctions [16][17]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs is back in an oscillatory pattern. The overall supply in January is expected to be sufficient. The basis is strong, but there is no obvious fundamental positive. It is recommended to short at high levels after the price stabilizes [18]. Meal - USDA's report has a short - term negative impact on the market, but the decline space of CBOT is limited. The domestic meal market is in a loose situation, but the low - level arrival expectation in the first quarter limits the downward space. The market will oscillate in the short - term [21]. Eggs - The egg market is in a situation of overall supply exceeding demand. The pre - holiday stocking drives up demand, but the price may experience short - term digestion pressure and a slight correction. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [25]. Summaries by Catalog Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On January 15, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all declined. The decline rates of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures were - 0.78%, - 1.94%, and - 1.35% respectively [1]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The inventory and warehouse receipts of palm oil decreased, and the inventory of soybean oil and rapeseed oil also showed certain changes [1]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of cotton 2605 and 2609 decreased, and the ICE cotton price increased slightly. The 5 - 9 spread decreased significantly [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of cotton in Xinjiang and the CC Index increased slightly [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory of Xinjiang cotton is rising, and the export sales of US cotton are strong [2]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of sugar 2605 and 2609 decreased, and the ICE raw sugar price also declined [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning remained unchanged, and the price in Kunming decreased slightly [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The sugar production in India increased, and the domestic sugar production, sales, and inventory showed different trends [3]. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of red dates 2605, 2607, and 2609 all decreased [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of red dates in Cangzhou remained unchanged [4]. Apples - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of apple 2605 and 2610 decreased, and the 5 - 10 spread decreased [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in the main production areas were weakly stable [12]. - **Market Activity**: The arrival volume in the wholesale market increased slightly, and the inventory in the cold storage decreased [7]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn in the Northeast is strong, and in North China, it oscillates narrowly. The demand side has different inventory situations [16]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch increased slightly, and the basis decreased [16]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of pig 2605 and 2603 decreased, and the 3 - 5 spread decreased [18]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions showed different trends [18]. - **Industry Situation**: The slaughter volume decreased slightly, and the prices of piglets and sows increased slightly [18]. Meal - **Price Changes**: On January 16, the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures decreased slightly [21]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybean meal increased, and those of rapeseed meal remained unchanged [21]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads and ratios such as the oil - meal ratio and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread changed slightly [21]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of egg 03 and 04 increased, and the 3 - 4 spread increased [25]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of egg - related products such as egg - laying chicken seedlings and culled chickens increased [25]. - **Industry Situation**: The egg market is in a situation of supply exceeding demand, but the pre - holiday stocking drives up demand [25].

1. Report Information - Report Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Reported Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Core View - In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton is in a wide - range shock adjustment, awaiting new drivers, while in the long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged [8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,972 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream basis of 2025/26 southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 31 - grade double 29/impurity within 3.5 was mostly at CF05 + 850 or higher, and that in northern Xinjiang was mostly at 1000 or higher. The sales of pure - cotton yarn varieties were significantly differentiated. The sales pressure of low - count and regular varieties was prominent, while the high - count combed yarn orders remained good, with firm prices and relatively good order schedules. The overall trading in the all - cotton grey cloth market was still dull. [7] - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, the lint inspection was in the final stage. As of mid - January, the daily inspection volume was around 36,000 tons. According to the current progress, the output in the 2025/26 season might still have an upward adjustment pressure. The large gap between domestic and foreign prices needed adjustment, and the possibility of importing foreign cotton through reserve cotton rotation increased. As of the end of December, the commercial inventory level of cotton was higher than that of the previous year. On the demand side, the export amount of textiles and clothing in December increased month - on - month but was still weak year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year decline in the export amount in 2025 further expanded. Domestic demand was relatively supportive, with the sales of medium - and high - count yarns remaining good, and the sales of some low - count yarn varieties also improving. The downstream stocking rhythm accelerated, and inventory was reduced. [8] 3.2 Industry News - As of January 14, 2026, a total of 1,097 cotton processing enterprises across the country processed cotton and carried out notarized inspections. The cumulative national inspection volume was 30,477,135 bales, totaling 6.8797 million tons, an increase of 32,400 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 30,099,924 bales, totaling 6.7952 million tons, an increase of 29,800 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in the inland was 217,257 bales, totaling 48,300 tons. [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presented a series of data charts including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, US dollar against RMB, and US dollar against Indian rupee, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [16][18][19]

Core Viewpoint - Brazil is set to lead global cotton trade from 2024 and further solidify its position as a major cotton supplier in 2025, with an expected export volume of 3.03 million tons, marking a historical high and a 9% increase from 2024 [1] Group 1: Export Performance - Brazil's cotton exports have shown significant achievements despite adverse macroeconomic conditions, with a continuous expansion of global market share [1] - The export value has decreased by 3.9% year-on-year to $4.9 billion due to declining international cotton prices [1] - Cotton futures prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange have dropped by 8% cumulatively in 2025 [1] Group 2: Export Destinations - China remains the largest importer of Brazilian cotton, with an export volume of 512,400 tons [1] - Other significant importers include Bangladesh with 497,600 tons and Pakistan with 487,700 tons [1] Group 3: Future Projections - According to the latest forecasts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Brazilian cotton exports are expected to reach a new high of 3.16 million tons in 2026 [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three sectors (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][9] Core Views - The cotton market lacks positive drivers and faces pressure from downstream transmission and internal - external price differentials in the short term. In the long term, its upward potential depends on policy implementation [2][3] - The sugar market is in a state of global surplus in the 25/26 season. Although the short - term trade flow is tight, the medium - term outlook is bearish. The long - term price is not overly pessimistic. Currently, domestic sugar is in a state of supply increase, and the short - to - medium - term price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [5][6] - The pulp market has continuous overseas supply disruptions. With the expectation of pre - Spring Festival restocking, domestic demand may show a mild recovery. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upward height depends on demand improvement and port inventory digestion [8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The cotton 2605 contract closed at 14,810 yuan/ton yesterday, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,717 yuan/ton, up 217 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 907, up 167 from the previous day; the national average price of 3128B cotton was 15,970 yuan/ton, up 187 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 1160, up 137 from the previous day. From January 5th to 11th, the number of ginning mills in Xinjiang that ended processing increased, and the processing volume continued to decline. The average purchase price of inland seed cotton was 6.78 yuan/kg, down 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous week. As of January 11th, 1096 cotton processing enterprises nationwide had conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 6.784 million tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is concentrated on the market, with high supply pressure and weak global textile consumption. The ICE U.S. cotton is expected to be under pressure in the short term, but has limited downward space in the long term. Domestically, China's cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season, and the commercial inventory is seasonally rising. Although the pre - festival stocking by yarn mills and traders is active, downstream orders and product sales have decreased, and the inventory in the industrial chain, especially at the grey fabric end, has increased significantly. For the whole year, domestic cotton consumption has increased due to the expansion of yarn spindle capacity, and the supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possibility of inventory tightening at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Be vigilant against the risk of high - level callbacks in the short term. The long - term upward space depends on the implementation of relevant policies [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The sugar 2605 contract closed at 5299 yuan/ton yesterday, up 46 yuan/ton (+0.88%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5370 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR05 + 71, down 36 from the previous day; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR05 - 69, down 46 from the previous day. In the first half of December, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 5.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.894 million tons (-32.83%); the sugar production was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 102,000 tons (-28.76%) [4] Market Analysis - The global sugar market is in a surplus in the 25/26 season. In the short term, the tight trade flow in the first quarter may support the raw sugar price. In the medium term, the surplus pattern will suppress the market. In the long term, the market expects the sugar - making ratio in Brazil to decline in the 26/27 season, and there are still uncertainties in the weather in 2026 and the planting area in Thailand. In China, sugar production has increased for the third consecutive year, and the pre - festival stocking demand may support the price. However, the import pressure is high, and the amount of syrup has not decreased significantly [5][6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. In the short - to - medium term, although the valuation is low, there is still a possibility of another bottom - seeking, but the overall downward space is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The pulp 2605 contract closed at 5494 yuan/ton yesterday, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP05 + 56, down 2 from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Urals and Bratsk) was 5135 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP05 - 359, down 2 from the previous day. Yesterday, the imported wood pulp spot market stabilized, with weak trading volume [7] Market Analysis - In terms of supply, there have been continuous news of overseas pulp mill shutdowns and maintenance at the end of 2025. In terms of demand, the inventory of wood pulp in European ports continued to decline in November, and the demand continued to improve. In China, although a large amount of finished paper production capacity has been put into operation this year, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory has been at a historical high. However, the port inventory decreased slightly in December, and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity will generate marginal incremental demand for pulp, which may support the pulp price to gradually stabilize [8] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. With continuous overseas supply disruptions and the expectation of pre - Spring Festival restocking, the short - term trend is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upward height depends on demand improvement and port inventory digestion [9]

Report Overview - Report Date: January 15, 2026 [2] - Reported Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Report Core Views - The Zhengzhou Cotton futures market is experiencing a wide - range shock adjustment in the short term, awaiting new driving forces, while the medium - to - long - term positive trend remains unchanged [8] - The international cotton market has relatively balanced supply and demand, with a slight positive bias in the USDA monthly report [8] - The domestic cotton market shows a decline in the planned cotton - planting area in 2026, and the textile and clothing exports in December 2025 decreased year - on - year [8][9] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Spot Market**: The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,970 yuan/ton, up 187 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream basis of machine - picked cotton in southern and northern Xinjiang is relatively high. The cotton yarn market has general trading, with few new orders, and the full - cotton grey fabric market is still dull, but some areas have started pre - holiday replenishment [7] - **Overseas Market**: The USDA monthly report lowered the US cotton production in the 2025/26 season by 80,000 tons to 3.03 million tons, and the global cotton production by 80,000 tons to 26 million tons, while increasing global cotton consumption by 70,000 tons to 25.89 million tons. The net long position of the CFTC US cotton fund has been rising, and the external market has recovered [8] - **Domestic Market Data**: As of January 13, 2026, the national cumulative inspection volume was 6.8473 million tons, an increase of 28,100 tons from the previous day. The planned cotton - planting area in 2026 is 44.386 million mu, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. In December 2025, the total textile and clothing exports were 25.992 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 7.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.9% [8] 2. Industry News - In December 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 25.992 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative exports were 293.767 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [9] - As of January 13, 2026, the national cumulative inspection volume was 6.8473 million tons, an increase of 28,100 tons from the previous day, including 6.7654 million tons in Xinjiang and 46,500 tons in the inland areas [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts related to cotton, including price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, spreads between different contracts, commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates [16][18][19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong due to supportive market factors, and the recent sharp correction in cotton prices is expected to result in short - term oscillations with a slightly upward bias [6]. - It is recommended to consider buying on dips for Zhengzhou cotton, while maintaining a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options strategies [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts increased by 50, 50, and 15 respectively, while the CY01 contract decreased by 395. The trading volumes of most contracts decreased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of the CF05 contract decreased by 207,513, and its open interest increased by 5,210 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price increased by 113 to 15,970 yuan/ton, and the Cot A price was 75.00 cents/pound. The prices of some other spot products also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Spreads**: In the cotton and棉纱 markets, there were various spread changes. For instance, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 40 with no change, and the 1 - 5 month spread of 棉纱 was - 1,020, a decrease of 440 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News** - In Xinjiang, the number of ginned cotton factories that ended processing increased last week, and the processing volume continued to decline. The domestic lint market price has been rising during the acquisition and processing period this year, and processing enterprises generally made profits through the "buy - and - sell" model. The average purchase price of inland seed cotton last week was 6.78 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous week. As of January 11, 1,096 cotton processing enterprises had conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 6.784 million tons [4]. - The average temperature in the main cotton - producing areas of the US decreased, and the precipitation remained low. The drought in the main cotton - producing areas of the US is expected to intensify in the first quarter [5]. - In December 2025, Vietnam's textile and clothing imports and exports performed well, with a 47% month - on - month increase in cotton imports [5]. - **Trading Logic**: The cotton sales progress is fast, and the downstream stocking willingness has increased. The fundamentals of cotton remain strong, and the short - term trend is expected to be slightly upward [6]. - **Trading Strategies** - For the single - side strategy, it is expected that the US cotton will oscillate within a range in the short term, and it is advisable to consider buying Zhengzhou cotton on dips [8]. - For the arbitrage and options strategies, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [9][10]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - The overall price of pure cotton yarn is stable with a slight decline. The high - count combed yarn price is firm, but the overall market trading atmosphere is still light. The prices of some yarn products are provided, such as the OEC21S at about 16,600 yuan/ton [10]. - The all - cotton grey fabric market has partial stocking. Most manufacturers believe that there will be no significant improvement this year. The prices of regular varieties are stable, and the dyeing factories plan to start their holidays at the end of January, while some weaving factories will start their holidays in mid - January [11]. Third Part: Options - **Volatility**: The 10 - day HV of cotton increased slightly yesterday. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively [13]. - **Options Strategy**: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for options [14][15]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based price difference between domestic and international cotton markets, cotton basis for different months, and the price difference between cotton yarn and cotton for different contracts [17][20][24][25].