大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 调研报告 2025 年 6 月 17 日 【银河调研】棉花北疆种植及库存情况调研（二） 第一部分 调研背景 2025/26 年度棉花种植面积继续增加，新年度新疆棉产量如何变化？目前 新疆纺纱产能已经接近 3000 万锭，而新疆纺纱产能仍在继续扩大，在当前这 个国际贸易关系逐渐恶化的环境下新疆的纺织企业经营情况如何？此外，随 着近期新疆棉出库速度加快，市场担忧今年在新棉上市前的青黄不接时期棉 花供应可能会偏紧，新疆棉的真实库存情况如何？带着这些问题我们对北疆 地区的轧花厂、纺织企业以及监管库进行了调研。 第二部分 调研路线 乌鲁木齐市—五家渠—石河子—奎屯—精河 第三部分 调研纪要 纺企 D 企业情况：该企业产能在 10 万锭左右，有两个加工车间，分为自营和代加工 两部分，用工人数在 30—50 人左右，主要产品以纯棉纱 C32S 和 C40S 为主，加工 费在 4000-5000 元/吨之间，不同品种加工费不同，一般普梳 40 比普梳 32 的加工费 高 500 元/吨。 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 :liuqiannan ...

| CTECHER | 日度黄路参考 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期: 2025/06 | 业分格号:F02517 | | | | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 股指 | 地缘冲突加剧,结合期权工具对冲不确定性。 | 看零 | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 登间。 | 宏观金融 | | | | | | | | 局势略有缓和,金价短期或重返震荡;中长期上涨逻辑仍旧坚实 | 賃金 | 震荡 | | | | | | | | T 自银 | 短期料进入震荡走势。 | 農汤 | 近期市场风险偏好有所下滑,而下游需求进入淡季,铜价走高后 | | | | | | | 价格存在回调风险。 | 近期国内电解铝库存持续下滑,挤仓风险仍存,铝价维持偏强运 | 看多 | | | | | | | | 门。 | 氧化铝现货价格相对稳定,而期货价格偏弱运行,期货贴水明 | | | | | | | | | 氧化铝 | 显 ...

行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 6 月 17 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉震荡调整。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 14852 元/吨，较上一 交易日涨 68 元/吨。2024/25 北疆机采 4129/29B/杂 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Sustainable Cotton" project in China aims to enhance cotton production quality while reducing environmental impact through scientific farming methods and technology [1][2]. Group 1: Sustainable Cotton Development - The "Sustainable Cotton" initiative, launched by the China Cotton Association, focuses on reducing pesticide and fertilizer use without compromising yield, thereby minimizing environmental pollution [1]. - The project has certified 1.2 million acres of cotton fields in Xinjiang, producing 430,000 tons of sustainable cotton, promoting high-quality, eco-friendly cotton products for consumers [1]. Group 2: Industry Performance and Projections - Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, China's cotton industry has maintained stable production and consumption levels, with cotton output and consumption around 6 million tons and 8 million tons, respectively, employing nearly 17 million people [2]. - The projected cotton planting area for 2025 is 44.82 million acres, reflecting a 1.8% year-on-year increase, with Xinjiang's area expected to grow by 3.3% [2]. Group 3: Quality and Innovation - Industry experts emphasize the need for structural optimization and technological innovation to transition from traditional advantages to high-quality development, enhancing cotton production and processing quality [2]. - The cotton quality in China is considered above average globally, but further upgrades in technology and management are necessary to meet high-quality textile demands [2][3]. Group 4: Green Transformation - The cotton industry is urged to pursue a green low-carbon transformation, reducing resource consumption and emissions while increasing the industry's "green content" [3]. - The 2025 China International Cotton Conference, themed "Promoting Sustainable Cotton, Discussing New Consumption Future," highlights the industry's commitment to green development [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful implementation of China's subsurface drip irrigation technology in Uzbekistan, significantly improving cotton yields and promoting agricultural modernization in the region [1][5]. Group 1: Technology Implementation - The introduction of subsurface drip irrigation technology from China has transformed cotton farming practices in Uzbekistan, addressing issues of low yield and water wastage associated with traditional irrigation methods [1][5]. - Abdullah Bekmatov, a local cotton farmer, reported that his cotton yield increased by 30% to 50% compared to other farmers after adopting the drip irrigation technology [1]. - In 2023, Bekmatov achieved a cotton yield of over 430 kilograms per mu, with some plots reaching 450 kilograms, effectively doubling his previous output [2]. Group 2: Challenges and Solutions - Initial skepticism among local farmers regarding the cost and complexity of the new technology posed a challenge to its adoption [3]. - To overcome these challenges, a hands-on approach was taken, with Chinese experts providing practical training on irrigation techniques and water-fertilizer management [4]. - The success of Bekmatov's farming practices has inspired greater trust and interest among local farmers, leading to wider adoption of the technology [4]. Group 3: Broader Impact - The collaboration between Chinese agricultural experts and Uzbek farmers is part of a larger initiative under the Belt and Road Initiative, focusing on agricultural modernization in Uzbekistan [5]. - The spread of subsurface drip irrigation technology is seen as a catalyst for revitalizing local agriculture and enhancing bilateral relations between China and Uzbekistan [5].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 调研报告 2025 年 6 月 16 日 【银河调研】棉花北疆种植及库存情况调研（一） 第一部分 调研背景 2025/26 年度棉花种植面积继续增加，新年度新疆棉产量如何变化？目前 新疆纺纱产能已经接近 3000 万锭，而目前新疆纺纱产能仍在继续扩大，在目 前这个国际贸易关系逐渐恶化的环境下新疆的纺织企业经营情况如何？此 外，随着近期新疆棉出库速度加快，市场担忧今年在新棉上市前的青黄不接 时期棉花供应可能会偏紧，新疆棉的真实库存情况如何？带着这些问题我们 对北疆地区的轧花厂、纺织企业以及监管库进行了调研。 第二部分 调研路线 乌鲁木齐市—五家渠—石河子—奎屯—精河 第三部分 调研纪要 某轧花厂 A 企业介绍：该企业有一个自有轧花厂，并有 20 多亩自有种植棉田，今年棉花 涨势尚可，目前棉苗高 30-40cm，预计 7、8 月份准备打顶。 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 :liuqiannan_qh@ch inastock.com.cn 1 / 3 棉花种植情况：据了解，今年北疆天气情况尚可，按照目前情况来看棉花生长 情况尚可，当地棉花种植面积 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 16 日 棉花：关注外部市场影响 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2509 CY2509 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 13,495 19,715 | -0.18% -0.28% | 13530 19770 | 0.26% 0.28% | | | ICE美棉12 | 美分/磅 | 67.9 | 0.55% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2509 | 手 | 252,297 | 17,649 | 794,398 | -6,587 | | | CY2509 | 手 | 6,521 | -1,999 | 19,858 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | | | 郑棉 | 张 | ...

棉系周报：去库速度较快 棉价震荡略偏强 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 目录 第一部分 国内外市场分析 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 第一部分 国内外市场分析 内容摘要 GALAXY FUTURES 2 国际市场分析 国内市场分析 期权交易策略 期货交易策略 国际市场分析 GALAXY FUTURES 3 美棉市场：当前市场仍然以宏观因素为主，考虑到未来越南等一些国家可能会继续增加对美棉的采购，对美棉形成一定的利多影响，预计美棉走 势震荡略偏强。 美棉生长情况：截止6月8日，美棉15个棉花主要种植州棉花种植率为76%，较去年同期慢3个百分点；近五年同期平均水平在80%，较近五年同期 平均水平慢4个百分点。美棉15个棉花主要种植州棉花现蕾率为12%，较去年同期慢1个百分点；近五年同期平均水平在12%，较近五年同期平均 水平持平。美棉15个棉花主要种植州棉花优良率为49%，较去年同期低7个百分点，较五年均值低1个百分点。美棉种植进度同比维持小幅落后， 现蕾进度尚可，整体优良率仍偏低。 美棉销售情况：截止6月5日当周，202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise in China's consumption capacity and its strategy to expand domestic demand are reshaping global trade and providing new opportunities for developing economies [1][4]. Group 1: China's Economic Impact - China has a population of over 1.4 billion, with nearly 500 million middle-income individuals, leading to a rapidly growing consumer market with annual retail sales exceeding $6.5 trillion [3][4]. - China has been the world's second-largest import market for 16 consecutive years, indicating its role not just as an exporter but also as a significant consumer of raw materials [4][5]. - The economic model of China, which focuses on adding value to raw materials before re-exporting, serves as a valuable reference for many developing countries, particularly in Africa [4]. Group 2: Opportunities for Developing Economies - The local value addition exemplified by Chinese projects, such as the Dangote refinery in Nigeria and industrial parks in Ethiopia, reduces reliance on imports and creates job opportunities [4][5]. - China's market opening policies, including zero-tariff access for least developed countries that establish diplomatic relations with China, provide competitive advantages for African exporters [4][5]. - Digital platforms are transforming consumption in China and offer African countries the opportunity to reach millions of consumers within hours [5]. Group 3: Strategic Partnerships - China demonstrates that enhancing economic resilience through consumption, creating jobs via value addition, and establishing long-term strategic cooperation through trade policies are viable paths for developing economies [6].

棉花（纱）市场周报 宏观因素支撑，但消费需求疲软 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z0018457 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.13」 3 目录 1、关注外棉价格变化 2、宏观因素 3、贸易政策 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 「 期现市场情况」 行情分析： 本周郑棉主力2509合约上涨，周度涨幅约1.1%。棉纱期货2509合约上涨约0.43%。 行情展望：国际方面，据美国农业部(USDA)供需报告显示，美国2025/26年度棉花 产量预估1400万包，低于2024/25年度1440万包，为过去10年产量第二低年份。期 末库存预估为430万包，5月预估为520包。美国农业部调低美国棉花产量和库存预 估，为棉花带来偏多影响，美棉跌幅收窄。国内方面，纺织行业消费淡季特征显现， 企业新增订单表现不佳。部分纺企库存处于相对高位，直接影响了企业对原材料的 采购意愿，仅根据实际生产需求补充库存。中美贸易会谈以及USDA报告影响利多， 支撑棉花价格短期震荡偏强，后市随 ...