朋友们收盘了，我是帮主郑重。今天这行情，真是让人有点哭笑不得。三大指数，尤其是创业板，午后 探底回升，看起来红彤彤一片。但你打开自己的账户看看，感受一下，是不是有点"指数红了，账户绿 了"的困惑？全市场超过3400只股票下跌，这个数据，道破了今天繁荣表象下的真实体温。 今天的主角，毫无疑问是人形机器人。午后这个板块的集体走强，带动了电机等相关产业链，和影视院 线、液冷服务器一起，构成了今天市场上为数不多的亮点。这背后啊，是资金在岁末年初，对明年高景 气度、有明确产业趋势方向的一次集中布局和押注。故事很宏大，想象空间也足。 但另一边，海南板块、光伏设备、保险这些方向，就显得相当落寞了。这再次印证了我最近反复说的一 个观点：当前市场是典型的存量甚至缩量博弈。钱就这么多，它去了人形机器人那里狂欢，就必然要从 别的地方流出来。所以你会看到热点板块和冷门板块之间，这种"冰火两重天"的极端撕裂。这不是牛 市，这是一场残酷的"资金争夺战"。 所以，我的核心观点是：今天指数的探底回升，更像是对局部热点的确认，而非市场整体趋势的反转。 市场的结构分化已经到了非常极致的状态，大多数人只感受到了"冰"，却没摸到"火"。 基于这个判 ...

（文章来源：证券时报网） 成交活跃股方面，今日上榜个股中，南向资金成交金额最多的是中芯国际，合计成交额60.49亿港元， 阿里巴巴-W、腾讯控股成交额紧随其后，分别成交53.79亿港元、38.81亿港元。以净买卖金额统计，净 买入的个股共有8只，中芯国际净买入额为7.59亿港元，净买入金额居首，该股收盘股价上涨4.24%，中 国海洋石油净买入额为4.61亿港元，工商银行净买入额为3.57亿港元。净卖出金额最多的是盈富基金， 净卖出16.12亿港元，该股收盘股价上涨0.93%，腾讯控股、中国移动遭净卖出12.79亿港元、9.92亿港 元。 12月30日恒生指数上涨0.86%，南向资金全天合计成交金额为923.00亿港元，其中，买入成交442.28亿 港元，卖出成交480.72亿港元，合计净卖出金额38.45亿港元。具体来看，港股通（深）累计成交金额 331.61亿港元，买入成交153.22亿港元，卖出成交178.40亿港元，合计净卖出金额25.18亿港元；港股通 （沪）累计成交金额591.38亿港元，买入成交289.06亿港元，卖出成交302.33亿港元，合计净卖出金额 13.27亿港元。 今日上榜个股中，中芯 ...

2025年底，高盛、摩根大通、摩根士丹利、瑞银、汇丰、德勤等多家头部外资组织陆续发布2026年商场 展望，纷繁传递出对我国股票商场的活跃预期。 外资组织的看多立场并非根据短期博弈，而是建立在企业盈余添加提速、微观方针协同发力及人民币增 值等逻辑之上。外资组织普遍以为，驱动我国股票商场上涨的核心动力，正从2025年的"估值修正"转向 2026年的"盈余生长"。 值得一提的是，2025年外资继续扫货我国财物。华泰证券发布的最新陈述显现，截至12月20日，2025年 以来全球出资于我国财物的ETF累计取得831亿美元的资金净流入。就职业分布来看，科技板块获外资 流入最多，到达95亿美元。 看多逻辑从"估值"转向"盈余" 外资组织研判，2026年我国股市将进入由基本面主导的新阶段。 事实上，外资组织对我国上市公司的盈余猜测普遍上调。 12月22日，高盛研究部首席我国股票战略分析师刘劲津及团队发布最新陈述，猜测我国股票商场到2027 年底有望实现38%的涨幅。 高盛估计，这一涨幅的首要驱动力来自企业盈余添加，2026年和2027年我国企业盈余将分别添加14%和 12%。此外，高盛还指出，上市公司海外营收添加估计将推进M ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 一、【第425期直播回放】 有朋友问，近1年多， A股 港股 的表现如何，还在牛市吗？ 什么信号，代表牛市可能到尾声或者结束？ 在今晚的直播课里，螺丝钉详细介绍了这些问题。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 1230 」即可观看直播回放。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） PS：直播内容仅为市场知识分享，不构成投资建议。 二、【部分直播课内容如下】 1. 近1年多，A股港股的涨幅排在全球前列 过去一年多，A股港股大幅上涨。 从2024年9月初，到2025年12月26日收盘： 可以看到， A股港股近一年多的涨幅，是排在全球前列的。 2. 近几个月有所波动，不过还是在牛市 • 美股全市场，上涨24.28%。 • 全球股票市场，上涨24.85%。 • 港股恒生指数全收益，上涨52.52% 。 • 中证全指全收益，上涨60.43% 。 之后有所波动，截至2025年12月26日，这轮回调幅度大约-6.47%。 暂时还不如2024年国庆、2025年1月、2025年4月这三次回调大。 所以，按照约定俗成的说法，A股目前仍然处在牛市之中。 3. 现在到了牛市中后 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘整体微涨，截止到收盘，还在4.1星。 大中小盘股都上涨，波动不大。 现金流等价值风格整体上涨，今天上涨后，现金流指数距离正常估值也很近了。 成长风格也整体上涨。 港股今天比较强势，比A股涨的略多一些。 港股科技股领涨。 马上就是元旦假期了。 明天周三，也是2025年最后一个交易日了。 A股周三正常交易，但港股通周三就暂停了。 部分含有港股的基金，周三也暂停申购赎回交易。 周四到周五是元旦假期，A股港股也放假。 下周假期回来后，恢复正常交易。 1. [大吉大利，今天吃基] 第396期的螺丝钉 定投 实盘来啦。 时间： 2025年12月30日 方案： 定投买入 品种： ▶指数增强投顾组合： 回到正常估值，暂停定投，继续持有。后面回到低估后继续。 ▶主动优选投顾组合： 9456元， 点这里跟车买入 ▶月薪宝投顾组合： 10000元， 点这里跟车买入 开启后，当主动优选、指数增强组合发车止盈时，会自动转换到365天等稳健类组合，避免错过止盈机会。 想了解功能详情可以查看：《 自动止盈功能来啦，一键开启，不错过止盈机会 》。 想要开启功能的朋友，可以长按识别二维码，添加课 ...

The futures on the second to last day of the year are pretty steady, showing minimal declines uh headed for the uh indexes after a modest drop yesterday. Joining us now is Ross Mayfield, Bayard investment strategist. Ross, uh good morning.So, we're, you know, have a strong year. Uh S&P up 17 plus% on a price basis in 2025, although kind of coasting into the close here. We're pretty much flat with levels we got to two months ago.A lot of rotation underneath. What's the setup for 2026. >> Yeah, I think the bi ...

Market Overview - The A-share market in December 2025 ended with a structural differentiation, characterized by a growth style leading the market, with the Wind All A Index rising by 3.34% [1] - The ChiNext Index surged by 5.57%, indicating a strong preference for small and medium-sized growth stocks, while the Shanghai Composite Index only saw a modest increase of 1.97% [1] - The cyclical style index rose by 5.21%, and the growth style index increased by 4.97%, significantly outperforming the consumer style index, which fell by 1.44% [1] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector was notably strong, driven by intensive industrial policies, with the aerospace and defense sector rising by 15.87% and the communication equipment sector increasing by 16.51% [2] - The insurance sector also performed well, rising by 16.98% due to year-end institutional allocation demand and expectations of long-term investment policies [2] - Conversely, sectors such as interactive media and services, as well as the media sector, experienced declines due to previous overheating or lack of catalysts [2] Driving Factors - The primary driver of the market's performance was the influx of incremental capital, with net subscriptions to broad-based ETFs exceeding 110 billion yuan, particularly in the A500 ETF [4] - Strong domestic industrial policies, such as the National Space Administration's action plan for commercial aerospace, played a crucial role in stimulating related sectors [4] - Global liquidity expectations shifted with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December, alongside the appreciation of the yuan, creating a favorable external environment [4] Market Expectations - Looking ahead to January 2026, the cross-year market trend is expected to continue, but with a focus on structure and rhythm [6] - Major broad-based indices may experience a "volatile consolidation and structural differentiation" pattern, with support from institutional fund layouts for the spring rally [6] - Opportunities in sectors are anticipated to revolve around dual drivers of policy and industry, with ongoing stories in the non-ferrous metals sector and a focus on commercial aerospace themes due to policy developments [6] Investment Strategy - A flexible and structured approach is recommended for upcoming market conditions, with a "core + satellite" investment strategy suggested [7] - Core positions should focus on high-growth sectors with clear industry trends, such as energy storage and precious metals, while flexible positions can target policy-sensitive themes like commercial aerospace [7] - Overall positions should be controlled to avoid chasing high prices, especially in light of potential market volatility from upcoming economic data releases and policy announcements [7]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月29日 2025年12月30日 固收+系列报告之九 公募 REITs2026 年投资展望：攻守之道与价值掘金 市场复盘：自首批公募 REITs 2021 年上市以来，我国公募 REITs 一级认购 倍数呈现显著波动走势，整体波动由产品供给稀缺性、市场情绪及资产类型 收益预期共同驱动。二级市场收益表现介于沪深 300 与中证全债之间，与中 证转债的股债混合属性形成互补，不同年份收益位次因底层资产、利率、政 策及市场环境差异而显著分化。从长期特征看，REITs 波动率低于沪深 300 和中证转债，高于中证全债，且与其他资产收益相关度低，兼具债性稳定与 股性弹性，适合平衡组合波动。 机构配置：当前公募 REITs 流通盘的持有主体高度集中，机构投资者主导， 券商自营是绝对主力，占比达 51.3%；其次是保险资金（19.9%）和产业资本 （13.6%），以上三类机构投资者合计占比超 84%；私募基金（5.5%）、信托 （3.6%）、其他资管（3.7%）等占比相对较低，个人投资者、公募基金、券 商资管、银行理财的持有比例均不足 1%。不同类型公募 REITs 的流通盘持有 人结构呈现显 ...

Research Conclusion - The report remains optimistic about the trading opportunities of convertible bonds, expecting a sideways shock and a slight strengthening in the equity market, with the market shifting from a two - end trend of technology + dividends to mid - cap blue - chips [6][9]. Core Viewpoints - This week, the ChiNext and STAR Market drove the small and medium - cap stocks stronger, and convertible bonds followed the upward trend. The high - priced equity - like bonds continued to rise. The 100 - yuan premium rate oscillated between 30% - 34% as previously predicted and was difficult to break through the previous high. Although the current cost - performance of convertible bonds is low, there are still trading opportunities under the optimistic expectation of the equity market [6][9]. - The strengthening factors of the equity market this week include the continuous popularity of the commercial space and optical module sectors, the strengthening of metal prices, and the significant increase in the share of CSI A500 ETF. After the uncertain events are settled, the market starts to rise with oscillations and the sentiment turns positive. The subsequent equity market will be in a sideways shock and slightly strengthen, and the market trend will shift to mid - cap blue - chips [6][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Convertible Bond Views - Driven by the equity market, convertible bonds broke through the previous high, and the valuation rose and then fell. The 100 - yuan premium rate oscillated between 30% - 34% and was difficult to break through the previous high. Despite the low cost - performance and small - scale redemption behavior, the trading opportunities of convertible bonds are still promising under the optimistic equity market [9]. - The equity market tried to break through upward again this week. With the settlement of uncertain events, the market started to rise with oscillations. The subsequent equity market will be in a sideways shock and slightly strengthen, and the market trend will shift to mid - cap blue - chips in industries such as cycles, consumption, and manufacturing [9]. 2. Convertible Bond Review 2.1 Market Overall Performance - This week, the equity market was strong, with all broad - based indexes rising. The CSI 500 rose 4.03%, the ChiNext Index rose 3.90%, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.64%. In terms of industries, non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, and power equipment led the rise, while beauty care, social services, and banks led the decline. The average daily trading volume increased by 210.457 billion yuan to 1.96 trillion yuan [12]. 2.2 Significant Increase in Trading Volume, Good Performance of High - priced and Small - cap Convertible Bonds - This week, convertible bonds rose significantly, the 100 - yuan premium rate rose and then fell, and the average daily trading volume increased significantly to 78.563 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.64%, the parity center rose 0.4% to 101.7 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate rose 1.3% to 32.4%. High - priced and small - cap convertible bonds led the rise, while high - rated and double - low convertible bonds performed weakly [6][19].

Group 1 - The company, 越疆, announced its plan to initiate an initial public offering (IPO) of RMB ordinary shares and list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange by December 29, 2025, to enhance business development and overall competitiveness [1] - The board of directors has approved the commencement of work related to the proposed A-share listing [1] Group 2 - The current market environment is characterized by a split, with certain sectors like commercial aerospace experiencing significant gains while others, such as pharmaceuticals and consumer goods, are facing declines [3] - The market is described as a structural rally rather than a broad bull market, indicating that funds are concentrated in specific sectors with compelling narratives, leaving many investors in a position where they are "only earning the index" without actual profits [3] - Two strategies are suggested for investors: one is to focus on the leading sectors like commercial aerospace while being cautious about chasing highs; the other is to consider undervalued sectors that have solid fundamentals but are currently overlooked, such as core assets in consumer and pharmaceutical sectors [4]