Group 1: Consumer Building Materials Industry - The consumer building materials industry is expected to experience a mild price recovery, with potential marginal improvement in the gross margins of leading companies [1] - Recent price increases have been announced by leading companies in segments such as waterproofing, gypsum boards, and municipal channels, driven by supply optimization and rising prices of upstream raw materials like PVC and emulsions [1] - Companies to watch include Oriental Yuhong (002271), Sankeshu (603737), Beixin Building Materials (000786), China Liansu (02128), and Weixing New Materials (002372) [1] Group 2: Glass Industry - The glass industry is under profit pressure, with expectations for accelerated cold repair processes [2] - As of January 29, the average price of float glass was 1,145 RMB per ton, with negative gross margins for various production inputs, indicating ongoing profitability challenges [2] - Companies to focus on include Xinyi Glass (00868) and Qibin Group (601636) [2] Group 3: Cement Industry - The cement industry is experiencing weak profits during the off-season, with ongoing internal competition [2] - Current gross margins for cement are at historical lows, with limited room for further decline [2] - The industry is expected to see marginal improvements in capacity utilization due to the continuation of anti-involution policies, with companies to watch including Conch Cement (600585) and Shangfeng Cement (000672) [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the building materials industry [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes increasing allocations to high-quality leading companies in consumer building materials and anticipates price increases in electronic fabrics due to shortages [2][3]. - Consumer building materials are highlighted as a strong investment opportunity due to significant supply exits, with production levels for various materials projected to be at 97% for plastic pipes, 82% for gypsum boards, and 77% for cement in 2024 compared to their peak levels [3]. - The report identifies three main lines for 2026: the stock chain, the African chain, and the AI chain, suggesting a shift in demand dynamics and growth opportunities in these areas [7]. Summary by Sections Basic Situation - Cement shipments have seen a slight month-on-month increase, while glass inventory continues to decline [6]. - In late January, cement demand showed slight recovery due to warmer weather in southern regions, with a shipment rate of approximately 32% in key domestic areas, up by 3 percentage points [6][23]. Outlook for 2026 - The report suggests focusing on three main lines: stock chain, African chain, and AI chain. The stock chain is expected to see a qualitative change in demand, with home renovation demand projected to rise from 50% to nearly 70% by 2030 [7]. - The African chain highlights undervalued growth opportunities in the African market, with recommendations for leading companies such as Keda Manufacturing and Huaxin Cement [7]. - The AI chain focuses on the upgrade of special electronic fabrics, with significant opportunities for domestic replacements in low CTE and low-Dk products [7]. Electronic Fabrics - The report is optimistic about price increases in electronic fabrics due to dual demand dynamics, with AI electronic fabrics benefiting from high demand and ordinary electronic fabrics facing supply constraints [5]. - The shortage of weaving machines is expected to continue, leading to sustained price increases [5]. Cement and Glass Market - The report notes that the national average price of cement is 349.84 yuan per ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 2.74 yuan [24]. - The national average price of glass is reported at 63.11 yuan per weight box, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.50 yuan [36].

相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国浮法平板玻璃行业市场供需态势及发展趋向研判报告》 数据来源：国家统计局 2020-2026年1月中旬浮法平板玻璃（4.8/5mm）市场价格变动统计图 根据国家统计局公布的数据，非金属建材类别下的浮法平板玻璃（4.8/5mm）2026年1月中旬市场价格 为1139.7元/吨，同比下滑17.92%，环比上涨1.38%，纵观近5年同时期其价格，2021年1月中旬达到最大 值，有2273.5元/吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating to the precious metals and new energy sectors, and "Neutral" or "Wait-and-See" ratings to most other sectors [1] Core Viewpoints - In the context of low interest rates and an "asset shortage", domestic market funds remain abundant, and the stock index is expected to maintain a long-term upward trend despite short-term volatility [1] - The bond market is favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1] - Metal prices, including copper, aluminum, and nickel, are expected to stabilize and rebound after the release of macro risks, although they are subject to various supply and demand factors and policy uncertainties [1] - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policy. For example, palm oil is expected to be volatile and bullish, while cotton is in a situation of "support but no driver" [1] - Energy and chemical product prices are influenced by factors like crude oil prices, supply and demand fundamentals, and geopolitical situations. For instance, PTA and ethylene glycol prices have shown different trends due to various factors [1] Summary by Industry Macro Finance - Stock index: Expected to consolidate after a volume-reduced rebound, with a long-term upward trend intact due to abundant funds and economic recovery [1] - Bond futures: Favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but short-term interest rate risks are highlighted [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: After a significant correction, prices are expected to stabilize and rebound as macro risks are released, with industry fundamentals providing support [1] - Aluminum: Prices dropped due to rising macro risk aversion but are expected to recover as the supply narrative continues and risks are released [1] - Alumina: Supply exceeds demand, and prices are under pressure but are expected to fluctuate around the cost line [1] - Zinc: The cost center is stabilizing, and prices are expected to rebound after a correction due to increased risk aversion [1] - Nickel: Short-term prices are expected to stabilize and rebound, but long-term high global inventories may still exert pressure. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1] - Stainless steel: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate, with support from the raw material end and repeated macro sentiment. Short-term trading is recommended [1] - Tin: Prices rebounded strongly after a mine accident and significant deleveraging, but high short-term volatility requires risk management [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and silver: Market sentiment is recovering, but strong US PMI data may slow the short-term upward momentum [1] - Platinum and palladium: Short-term support exists due to Trump's plan to establish a key mineral reserve and the EU's consideration of sanctions on Russian platinum exports [1] - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing, and the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon declined in December [1] - Polysilicon: In the off-season for new energy vehicles, but storage demand is strong. Prices have risen significantly and may need to correct [1] - Lithium carbonate: Expectations are strong, but the spot market is weak, and the continuation of price increases lacks momentum [1] Black Metals - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Unilateral long positions are advised to exit, and cash-and-carry arbitrage positions can be considered due to factors such as high production and inventory [1] - Iron ore: There is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1] - Coke and coking coal: In the off-season, the focus is on capital sentiment, and opportunities to sell at high prices or establish cash-and-carry arbitrage positions are recommended [1] - Glass and soda ash: Weak current supply and demand are intertwined with strong expectations, and prices are under pressure in the medium term [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil: Expected to be volatile and bullish as the main consuming countries start purchasing and production areas may reduce production and inventory [1] - Cotton: Currently in a situation of "support but no driver", and future attention should be paid to factors such as policy, planting area, and seasonal demand [1] - Sugar: There is a consensus on short positions due to global oversupply and increased domestic production, but the cost provides support at lower prices [1] - Grains: Before the Spring Festival, the market is expected to correct as pre-holiday stocking ends and funds take profits [1] - Soybeans: Unilateral expectations are for a weakening trend due to factors such as expected rainfall in Argentina and sufficient Brazilian supply [1] - Pulp: It is advisable to wait and see due to supply disturbances and weakening demand after restocking [1] - Logs: The spot price is rising, and the futures price is expected to increase due to a decrease in arrivals and an increase in foreign quotes [1] - Hogs: The spot price is stabilizing, and demand is supported, but production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may ease. Prices are expected to correct in the short term [1] - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - Asphalt: Profits are high, and the demand for catch-up construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan may be falsified [1] - Shanghai rubber: The raw material cost provides support, but downstream demand weakens before the festival, and the futures-spot price difference has widened [1] - BR rubber: The cost of butadiene provides support, and there is an expectation of increased exports in the long term. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with an upward trend in the long term [1] - PTA: The PX market is strong, driving up the prices of chemical products. Domestic PTA production is increasing, and the negative feedback from polyester factory production cuts is limited [1] - Ethylene glycol: Overseas prices have rebounded, and the reduction in Middle East exports has boosted market confidence. Speculative demand has increased [1] - Styrene: The futures price has rebounded due to improved supply and demand fundamentals and reduced inventory pressure [1] - Methanol: Affected by the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease, but downstream negative feedback is significant, resulting in a mixed situation [1] - PE: The price has returned to a reasonable range, and demand is weak during the holiday after pre-holiday stocking [1] - PP: Supply pressure is high, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price has returned to a reasonable range [1] - PVC: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current fundamentals are poor, and there may be a rush to export [1] - LPG: The CP price is rising, and the demand side is short-term bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price [1] Shipping - Container shipping on the European route: Freight rates have peaked and declined before the festival, and airlines are expected to raise prices after the off-season in March [1]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that electronic fabric prices are increasing even during the off-season, with significant price hikes observed in January 2026. This trend is attributed to high demand from downstream AI applications, leading to a production shift towards high-end products, creating a capacity gap for traditional fabrics [4][3]. - The traditional building materials sector is also experiencing price increases, driven by a need for profitability amidst thin margins. Companies like Yuhong and Keshun have already raised prices for waterproof coatings, and this trend is expected to continue as demand improves post-holiday [4]. - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with increased transactions in key cities and a reduction in listings. This recovery is anticipated to support price stabilization as the market enters the traditional demand peak in March [4]. Summary by Sections Electronic Fabric Market - Prices for electronic fabrics and yarns have risen significantly, with Linzhou Guangyuan's mainstream price for electronic fabric reported at 5.3-5.5 yuan/meter, up from 4.8-4.9 yuan/meter at the end of January [4]. - The ongoing price increases are expected to continue into the peak demand season of March and April 2026 [4]. Traditional Building Materials - The report notes that major companies in the building materials sector are actively pursuing price increases, with a focus on waterproof coatings and gypsum board products [4]. - The report suggests that if production limits are strictly enforced, it could lead to improved capacity utilization and price recovery in the cement market [4]. Real Estate Market - The report indicates a recovery in the real estate market, with a notable increase in second-hand home transactions in major cities and a decrease in listings [4]. - It emphasizes the expectation of supportive policies in 2026, particularly regarding mortgage rate adjustments, which could further stabilize the market [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information is provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Natural Rubber**: Current raw material prices have downside support, and the inventory accumulation rate is starting to converge or is about to reach an inflection point. It is recommended to continue holding long positions [2]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market has weak supply and demand. The inventory in the inland area has decreased slightly, and the port inventory has also decreased slightly. However, the MTO demand is weak, which suppresses the price rebound. The two key variables in the current market are the reduction rhythm of imported methanol due to low Iranian production and geopolitical uncertainties. The price may be volatile in the short - term [6]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has strong supply and weak demand, and there is a possibility of further inventory accumulation in the future. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with a reference range of 1150 - 1250 yuan/ton. The glass market has high inventory, which restricts the upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to the performance of glass at 1000 yuan/ton and consider short - selling with a light position [8]. - **Polyolefins**: The spot price of polyolefins changes little, and the market is mainly for hedging purchases. The basis weakens. The static fundamentals show a decrease in both supply and demand and a slight accumulation of inventory. The upstream inventory is low and has a strong willingness to hold prices. In the short - term, the price increase space and sustainability are expected to be restricted [10]. - **Urea**: The urea supply is sufficient, and the daily output has further increased to 210,000 tons. The inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down. The industrial demand is decreasing, and the agricultural fertilizer preparation is in progress. The overall trading atmosphere is weak. The short - term price increase is mainly a hedging reaction, and the upward space may be limited. The main contract of urea should focus on the 1760 - 1820 yuan/ton range [11]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market has an imbalance between supply and demand, with high inventory and weak demand. The cost provides some support, and the market may be in a volatile adjustment in the short - term. The PVC market has a weak fundamental situation. The inventory is increasing, and the cost support varies. The short - term price is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall, and the main contract should focus on the 4900 - 5300 yuan/ton range [13]. - **Crude Oil**: The uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation is still large. In the short - term, the oil price is boosted by geopolitical fluctuations, but the weak supply - demand expectation of crude oil still suppresses the increase. The short - term Brent crude oil may operate in the range of 63 - 70 US dollars/barrel [14]. - **LPG**: The LPG price has increased slightly. The inventory of LPG refineries has increased slightly, while the port inventory has decreased. The upstream refinery operating rate has increased, and the downstream PDH operating rate has decreased. The short - term market trend needs to be further observed [17]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The supply - demand situation of pure benzene is gradually improving, but due to the import pressure and high port inventory, its own driving force is limited, and the price may follow the oil price and downstream styrene. The styrene industry profit is good, but the supply - demand is expected to be loose in February. The rebound space is limited under the high - valuation and weak supply - demand expectation [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Price and Basis**: On February 4, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 200 yuan/ton to 16,100 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.26%. The basis of whole - latex decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 285 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 1.79% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of natural rubber in Thailand, Indonesia, and India increased, while that in China decreased. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed slightly. The domestic tire production and export volume increased in December, and the import volume of natural rubber also increased significantly [2]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory in Qingdao increased by 7,185 tons to 591,689 tons, with a growth rate of 1.23%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 174 tons to 53,625 tons, with a decline rate of 3.10% [2]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the closing price of MA2605 increased by 32 yuan/ton to 2,279 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.42%. The MA59 spread decreased by 4 yuan/ton to - 36 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 12.50% [6]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 55,800 tons to 368,900 tons, with a decline rate of 13.14%. The methanol port inventory decreased by 61,000 tons to 1.411 million tons, with a decline rate of 4.14% [6]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.15 percentage points to 77.56%, and the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate decreased by 8.67 percentage points to 52.2% [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: On February 2, the price of glass and soda ash in different regions remained stable. The glass 2605 contract increased by 37 yuan/ton to 1,109 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 3.45%. The soda ash 2605 contract increased by 28 yuan/ton to 1,229 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.33% [8]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate decreased by 2.58 percentage points to 84.19%, and the weekly production increased by 11,000 tons to 783,100 tons, with a growth rate of 1.48%. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased slightly, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased by 250 tons to 86,960 tons, with a decline rate of 0.29% [8]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 652,000 weight boxes to 52.564 million weight boxes, with a decline rate of 1.22%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 23,000 tons to 1.5442 million tons, with a growth rate of 1.51% [8]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the closing price of L2605 increased by 53 yuan/ton to 6,918 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.77%. The L59 spread decreased by 6 yuan/ton to - 57 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 11.76% [10]. - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory increased by 56,700 tons to 379,700 tons, with a growth rate of 17.55%. The PP enterprise inventory decreased by 32,000 tons to 432,900 tons, with a decline rate of 7.39% [10]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 3.08 percentage points to 81.59%, and the PP device operating rate increased by 0.40 percentage points to 76.02% [10]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the urea futures fluctuated and rose. The 01 - 05 contract spread decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 42 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 5.00% [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily production increased by 8,700 tons to 211,100 tons, with a growth rate of 4.28%. The inventory in the factory decreased by 26,400 tons to 918,500 tons, with a decline rate of 2.79% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the price of PVC in East China increased. The V2605 contract increased by 84 yuan/ton to 5,155 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.7%. The V2605 - V2609 spread increased by 13 yuan/ton to - 99 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 11.6% [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.6 percentage points to 91.4%, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 77.1% [13]. - **Inventory**: The PVC upstream factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 18,000 tons to 290,000 tons, with a decline rate of 5.8%. The PVC total social inventory increased by 8,000 tons to 585,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.4% [13]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, Brent crude oil increased by 2.13 US dollars/barrel to 69.46 US dollars/barrel, with a growth rate of 3.16%. The Brent - WTI spread increased by 0.20 US dollars/barrel to 4.32 US dollars/barrel, with a growth rate of 4.85% [14]. - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation and the US cold wave, the US crude oil production decreased significantly, and the inventory of crude oil and oil products decreased more than expected, but the gasoline inventory increased [14]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the main PG2603 contract increased by 57 yuan/ton to 4,251 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.36%. The PG03 - 04 spread decreased by 12 yuan/ton to - 265 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 4.74% [17]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 24.6%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 121,000 tons to 1.88 million tons, with a decline rate of 6.05% [17]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream main - refinery operating rate increased by 1.24 percentage points to 80.02%, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased by 1.53 percentage points to 60.7% [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the Brent crude oil price increased by 2.13 US dollars/barrel to 69.46 US dollars/barrel, with a growth rate of 3.2%. The EB - BZ spot spread increased by 40 yuan/ton to 1,780 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.3% [19]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 9,000 tons to 296,000 tons, with a decline rate of 3.0%. The styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 8,000 tons to 108,600 tons, with a growth rate of 8.0% [19]. - **Operating Rate**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 0.6 percentage points to 77.6%, and the styrene operating rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 69.3% [19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a medium - term outlook of "oscillation" for the black building materials industry [7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the off - season, the steel inventory pressure is increasing, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures prices are under pressure. The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, the iron ore has high shipping and high inventory pressure, and the coal supply is disturbed, but the support for coal - coke replenishment is weakening. The glass supply is also disturbed, but the oversupply restricts the upside space of the glass and soda ash futures [1]. - Overall, the winter storage of furnace materials is coming to an end, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster, there is pressure above the futures prices, but there is no negative feedback expectation, and the downside space of the cost side is limited. The sector is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Inventory pressure is continuously increasing, there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side, and post - holiday demand is uncertain. The supply and demand at present need to be verified, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [1]. Carbon Element - The growth space of coke supply is limited, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price is expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side. Domestic coal mines will gradually reduce production approaching the holiday, the coking coal fundamentals will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the futures price is expected to oscillate, and the fluctuation of the current sentiment remains to be observed [2]. Alloys - The supply - demand contradiction in the coal market is limited, the coal price fluctuates within a narrow range, and the power - consumption cost of ferromanganese - silicon is difficult to adjust significantly. The current market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main contract of ferromanganese - silicon will oscillate around the cost. The supply - demand contradiction in the coal market is not large, the coal price is expected to oscillate, and the cost adjustment of ferrosilicon is difficult to exceed expectations. The current market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradiction is limited. However, the trading activity before the festival is low, and the driving force for the futures price to rise is insufficient. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures price will oscillate around the cost [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of disturbances in glass supply, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [2]. Specific Varieties - **Steel**: The cost support is limited, and the futures price is under pressure. The spot market trading is average. The profitability of steel mills has slightly shrunk, the resumption of production in steel mills is slow, and the overall demand is seasonally weakening. The inventory pressure is increasing, and the fundamentals are gradually accumulating contradictions. It is expected to oscillate widely [10]. - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the futures and spot prices are under pressure. Overseas mine shipments have increased, the arrival at ports has weakened, and the supply side is expected to be disturbed by weather. The demand is stable, and the inventory pressure is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [10]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both seasonally declining, and the price in East China has slightly increased. The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [11]. - **Coke**: The spot price is stable for the time being, and the futures price follows the cost side. The supply change is limited, the demand is supported by rigid demand, and the inventory is increasing. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force is limited. The spot price is expected to be stable, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [14]. - **Coking Coal**: As the Spring Festival approaches, coal mines are gradually on holiday, and the futures price is strong due to event disturbances. The supply of domestic coal mines will gradually decline, the import is still at a high level, and the downstream inventory is gradually in place. The fundamentals are healthy, but the bullish driving force is limited. The spot price may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the futures price is expected to oscillate widely [15][16]. - **Glass**: The supply is still disturbed, and the price oscillates upward. The supply is expected to decline in the long term, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is expected to oscillate, and if there is no more cold - repair, the high inventory will suppress the price [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The cost drives the sentiment to warm up, and the production remains at a high level. The supply has slightly declined, the demand is weakening, and the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the oversupply pattern will intensify in the long term [17][20]. - **Ferromanganese - Silicon**: The futures price center has moved up, but there is still pressure above. The cost support is strengthened, the market trading is cooling down, the cost adjustment is small, the demand support is weakening, and the supply is difficult to digest the high - level inventory. It is expected to oscillate around the cost [20]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The trading atmosphere is cold, and the driving force for the price to rise is insufficient. The cost support is strengthened, the cost change is small, the demand support is weakening, and the supply is at a low level. It is expected to oscillate around the cost [21].

Report Overview - The report is a daily publication from Goldtrust Futures Research Institute, dated February 5, 2026 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market is likely to maintain a wide - range oscillation. After the Spring Festival, there may be a staged rebound, but the overall upside is limited. Operations should focus on high - selling and low - buying within the range [4] Summary by Category Coking Coal - Indonesia's government's large - scale production cut plan has led to miners suspending spot coal exports. Some companies' 2026 production quotas may be cut by 40% - 70% compared to 2025, causing export quotes to skyrocket and driving the A - share coal sector to a daily limit and coking coal futures to strengthen [3] - As the Spring Festival approaches, domestic coal mines in major production areas are starting to arrange for holidays and production suspension, leading to a seasonal low in supply. However, the Mongolian coal customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port remains high, with relatively sufficient imports. In February, coking coal supply decreases while demand remains stable, and the fundamentals improve marginally [3] - The coking coal futures are oscillating in the range of 1,100 - 1,300 yuan/ton, with the 1,300 - yuan integer mark being a strong resistance level. The recent rally lacked volume, which may trigger profit - taking by funds. Macroscopically, market trading activity decreases as the Spring Festival approaches, and speculative demand shrinks [3] Stock Index Futures - The A - share market rebounded after hitting the bottom today, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to the gap. It is facing short - term pressure near the current level, and it is recommended to reduce positions on rallies for now [6][7] Gold - Gold prices continue to decline sharply, and it is expected that the volatility will continue for some time. Caution is advised when participating [10] Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a supply surplus is further fermented. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, it has broken through the platform support and is regarded as oscillating bearishly [12][13] Glass - The daily melting volume of glass has changed little, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The main drivers are the policy - side stimulus policies and the anti - involution policies for the supply - side clearance. Technically, it closed with a large positive line today, and the trading idea has turned to oscillating bullishly [15][16] Methanol - As the Spring Festival approaches, the methanol market has abundant supply and weakening demand. Enterprises are smoothly clearing their inventories but mostly selling at low prices. The market lacks positive support, and the price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term [18] Pulp - From the perspective of the pulp fundamentals, the supply - demand pattern has improved month - on - month since the end of last year, driving the pulp price to bottom out and rebound. However, the recovery of domestic terminal consumption is still slow, which should limit the speed and space of price increases. The futures market has shown an oscillating pattern in the recent period [21]

"永"立潮头，海纳百"川"。 上市公司重庆行暨重庆市"四企"联动发展对接活动将于2月5日至2月6日在重庆永川区举行。本次活动由 重庆市经济和信息化委员会、重庆市国有资产监督管理委员会指导，重庆市永川区人民政府、重庆国际 投资咨询集团有限公司联合主办，新华社重庆分社、上海证券报社支持。 据了解，本次活动以"相约永川·共创未来"为主题，搭建起产业对接、成果转化的交流平台，汇聚知名 专家学者和上市公司、优强企业、投资机构代表等约300人，共探产业高质量发展新机遇，共话企业高 质量发展新路径。 值得一提的是，此次活动内容丰富，闭门洽谈会、参观调研等在活动期间同步举行，上市企业、优强企 业、投资机构代表等将在永川科技园区、永川大数据产业园等地进行走访交流，共话发展实践，碰撞思 想火花。 近年来，永川牢牢把握制造业高质量发展核心，以"3322"现代制造业集群体系建设为总抓手，聚焦智能 网联新能源汽车摩托车及零部件、新材料、大数据及人工智能三大重点产业，夯实消费品工业、电子信 息、高端装备三大优势产业，培育低空经济、生物科技两大未来产业，壮大智能机器人、新能源装备两 大新兴产业，推动产业布局从"单点突破"向"集群共进"跨越 ...

智通财经APP讯，金晶科技(600586.SH)发布股价异动公告称，公司注意到市场关注公司TCO玻璃市场 进展情况。截至目前TCO玻璃行业市场尚较小，同时据公司初步统计，2025年1-9月TCO玻璃销售收入 占当期营业收入比重较低，对当期营业收入不产生较大影响。敬请广大投资者理性决策，注意投资风 险。 ...