Group 1: International News - The international precious metals market shows a mixed trend, with New York gold futures prices rising, breaking through $4530 and $4540 per ounce, with daily increases of 0.62% and 0.86% respectively [1][5] - Spot gold prices fluctuated downwards, falling below $4480 per ounce, with a daily decrease of 0.04%, after briefly surpassing $4500 per ounce earlier in the day, with a daily increase of 0.50% [1][5] - The silver market performed strongly, with New York silver futures breaking through $74 per ounce, showing a daily increase of 3.23%, while spot silver also broke through $73 per ounce, with a daily increase of 2.65% [1][6] - The U.S. government is adjusting energy policies to reduce dependence on China's battery supply chain, promoting subsidies for the battery industry, including approving several legacy grants and providing $500 million for battery materials and recycling projects [1][6] - A recent high-level battery supply chain meeting was held at the White House, coordinating policies between the Department of Energy and businesses to address China's dominance in battery technology, with analysts indicating that establishing a domestic supply chain will take at least five years [1][6] - The spot market prices for storage products remain firm, with DDR4 and DDR5 memory module prices rising continuously, and suppliers like Kingston significantly increasing DRAM prices, with short-term increases seen as a temporary phenomenon due to traders' year-end inventory adjustments [1][6] - The NAND Flash market is driven by expectations of rising contract prices, with suppliers adopting a withholding strategy, leading to continuous increases in wafer spot prices, indicating ongoing upward pressure [2][6] Group 2: Domestic News - In the domestic futures market, certain varieties showed significant fluctuations, with silver continuous main contracts rising sharply, breaking through 4% and 5% increases, reaching prices of 17875 yuan/ton and 18045 yuan/ton respectively [3][7] - Nickel continuous main contracts increased by 2%, reported at 127630 yuan/ton, while glass continuous main contracts fell by 1%, closing at 1039 yuan/ton [4][8] - The company Shui Jing Fang issued a clarification announcement stating that media reports regarding a certain liquor company intending to acquire Shui Jing Fang are untrue, reminding investors to invest rationally [4][8]

钢材淡季延续去库，钢⼚复产叠加冬储补库预期仍存，炉料下⽅存在 ⽀撑。但热卷库存压⼒尚存，下游补库意愿偏低，铁矿港⼝库存累 积，煤焦产业链库存增加，基本⾯乏善可陈，盘⾯表现承压。 钢材淡季延续去库，钢厂复产叠加冬储补库预期仍存，炉料下方存在 支撑。但热卷库存压力尚存，下游补库意愿偏低，铁矿港口库存累 积，煤焦产业链库存增加，基本面乏善可陈，盘面表现承压。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水基本持稳，港口库存大幅累积，钢厂少量补 库，上下游博弈较强，短期矿价预计震荡运行。废钢供弱需稳，钢厂 去库，基本面边际转强，短期电炉利润尚可，短流程钢企废钢需求仍 有支撑，预计现货价格震荡。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本端已有企稳迹象，且进入一月后钢厂有复 产预期，随着中下游冬储补库逐渐开启，焦炭供需结构或将逐渐变 紧，基本面对价格支撑仍在，盘面预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随着年关 将近，冬储力度逐渐加大，且进入一月后进口压力将有所缓解，焦煤 基本面将延续边际改善，盘面估值仍拥有修复空间。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-26 现实端压⼒尚存，盘⾯表现承压 3. 合金方面：锰硅供需宽 ...

李迅雷/文 2024年中央经济工作会议首次提出"着力实现增长稳、就业稳和物价合理回升"，2025年年末的中央经济 工作会议再次提出"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"。可见，让物价合理 回升已经成为一项重要的政策目标。 那么，如何才能让物价合理回升，难点在哪里？本文就此话题展开讨论。 此轮物价低迷周期始于2012年 通胀是经济发展中的常态，因为货币规模总是不断膨胀。但经济体偶然也会出现通缩，通缩通常是经济 结构的扭曲导致的，如商品供需结构、居民收入结构等。2022年以来，我国PPI步入负值区间且无明显 的回升迹象，CPI也在0-1%之间徘徊，这就引发了大家的关注。 实际上，从2012年5月份开始，我国的PPI走势与欧美就发生了分野，即我国开始步入负值区间，欧美则 维持正增长。而且，我国这轮PPI步入负值区间时间长达4年零5个月，到2016年10月才回正。 为何会PPI为负能那么长时间呢？首先是2011年全球大宗商品价格出现历史性的大拐点，随后黄金等贵 金属价格也出现了大幅回落。其次是我国为应对美国次贷危机扩散对中国经济造成的冲击，2009年出台 了为期两年的大规模基建投资刺激政策，这项政 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes three main investment themes in the building materials industry: the stock chain, the Africa chain, and the AI chain. The stock chain focuses on optimizing demand and clearing supply varieties, with a significant shift in consumer demand expected as renovation needs rise to nearly 70% by 2030 [4][7][26] - The Africa chain highlights the undervalued potential of leading companies in the African market, benefiting from population growth and urbanization, with a projected threefold market expansion for cement [9][10] - The AI chain anticipates an upgrade in the special electronic cloth industry, driven by the transition from Low-Dk to higher-grade products, indicating substantial domestic replacement opportunities due to supply shortages [10][10] Group 2 - The stock chain indicates that the renovation demand is currently around 50% and is expected to reach nearly 70% by 2030, which will drive the industry back to historical demand levels [7][26][28] - The report notes that the supply of consumer building materials is expected to exit significantly, with production levels for various materials projected to be at 90% to 62% of their peak by 2024 [7][37] - The report identifies companies like Huaxin Cement and West Cement as key players in the African market, which is expected to see high demand due to ongoing urbanization and infrastructure development [9][10] Group 3 - The report suggests that the renovation market could reach 20 billion square meters annually, driven by a shorter renovation cycle and an increase in the aging housing stock [28][31] - The report highlights that leading companies in the consumer building materials sector are expected to show revenue and profit resilience, with some companies already demonstrating growth despite industry downturns [8][41] - The report indicates that the waterproof and coating sectors are under significant pressure, with the waterproof materials market expected to see a notable decline in production by 2024 [45][58]

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 25 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、纯碱、玻璃行情回顾与操作建议 | | | 表1：纯碱、玻璃期货12月24日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

黑色建材日报 2025-12-25 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3136 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 8 元/吨（0.255%）。当日注册仓单 60684 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 159.7429 万手，环比增加 17388 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3320 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3285 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.121%）。 当日注册仓单 104293 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主 力合约持仓量为 122.9562 万手，环比增加 31165 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3260 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3270 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 【策略观点】 供给方面，最新一期海外铁矿石发运量环比下降。发运端，澳洲、巴西发运量均不同程度回落。主流矿山 下滑幅度各异。非主流国家发运量小幅回升，处在同期相对高位，近端到港量环比降低。需求方面，最新 一期钢联口径日均铁水产量 226.55 万吨，延续下滑趋势，降幅略超预期。河北 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-25 市场情绪不振，钢价区间震荡 玻璃纯碱：产线检修增加，玻璃震荡上行 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货震荡上涨，现货方面，市场成交重心下移，下游按需采购为主。12月下旬部分产线存在 冷修，玻璃供给有所收缩。 供需与逻辑：玻璃产量高位震荡，供应收缩程度不足，刚需缺乏起色，供需矛盾依旧存在，且伴随春节临近，刚 需仍有进一步回落预期，叠加高库存压制，玻璃价格整体承压，持续关注玻璃冷修情况及宏观政策对玻璃投机需 求帶来的扰动。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货窄幅震荡运行，现货方面，下游观望情绪浓厚，刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱产量虽有下降，但仍处于同期较高位，且伴随新产线投产，纯碱供给或有进一步增加预期。目 前库存高位震荡，且考虑到后期浮法玻璃冷修计划仍有增加预期，重碱需求面临挑战，持续关注下游需求情况对 纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 房地产政策、宏观数据情况、光伏产业投产、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 双硅：观望情绪渐浓，合金盘整运行 市场分析 硅铁方面：震荡 风险 宏观政策、产能利用率变化、港口锰矿库存及下游需 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-25 现实预期博弈，盘⾯震荡运⾏ 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本端已有企稳迹象，且进入一月后钢厂有复 产预期，随着中下游冬储补库逐渐开启，焦炭供需结构或将逐渐变 紧，基本面对价格支撑仍在，盘面预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随着年关 将近，冬储力度逐渐加大，且进入一月后进口压力将有所缓解，焦煤 基本面将延续边际改善，盘面估值仍拥有修复空间。 3. 合金方面：锰硅市场供需宽松格局难改，上游库存压力较大，锰 硅期价的上方空间预计有限，中期来看盘面仍将围绕成本估值附近低 位震荡运行。硅铁上游供应压力缓解，但终端需求淡季市场供需双 弱、盘面的上方空间仍不宜过度乐观，预计硅铁期价围绕成本估值附 近震荡运行为主。 4. 玻璃纯碱：玻璃供应仍有扰动预期，但中游下游库存中性偏高， 基本面来看当前供需仍旧过剩，若年底前无更多冷修，则高库存始终 压制价格，预计震荡偏弱，反之则价格上行。纯碱整体供需仍旧过 剩，预计短期以震荡为主，长期来看供给过剩格局进一步加剧，价格 中枢仍将下行，推动产能去化。 整体而言，淡季基本面亮点有限，但政策基调仍显积极，冬储 ...

2024年中央经济工作会议首次提出"着力实现增长稳、就业稳和物价合理回升"，2025年年末的中央经济工作会 议再次提出"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"。可见，让物价合理回升已经成为 一项重要的政策目标。那么，如何才能让物价合理回升，难点在哪里？本文就此话题展开讨论。 此轮物价低迷周期始于2012年 通胀是经济发展中的常态，因为货币规模总是不断膨胀。但经济体偶然也会出现通缩，通缩通常是经济结构的 扭曲导致的，如商品供需结构、居民收入结构等。2022年以来，我国PPI步入负值区间且无明显的回升迹象， CPI也在0-1%之间徘徊，这就引发了大家的关注。 实际上， 从2012年5月份开始，我国的PPI走势与欧美就发生了分野， 即我国开始步入负值区间，欧美则维持 正增长。而且，我国这轮PPI步入负值区间时间长达4年零5个月，到2016年10月才回正。 为何会PPI为负能那么长时间呢？首先是2011年全球大宗商品价格出现历史性的大拐点，随后黄金等贵金属价 格也出现了大幅回落。其次是我国为应对美国次贷危机扩散对中国经济造成的冲击，2009年出台了为期两年的 大规模基建投资刺激政策，这项政策的传导效 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are supported by cost at the bottom but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - Iron ore shipments remain high, with non-mainstream mines as the main source of growth, exerting significant supply pressure and capping price upside. However, iron ore also has upward drivers, and is expected to trade within a range with limited upside after valuation repair [21] - As terminal winter storage approaches, the coking coal inventory structure is expected to improve, and the downside of the coking coal futures may be limited due to the relatively high basis. After the third round of coke price cuts, the cost of dry quenched coke warehouse receipts is about 1700 - 1720, and the driving force for coke valuation repair may weaken temporarily [31] - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak in both supply and demand, with limited upside potential. The demand for ferroalloys is gradually weakening as downstream hot metal production continues to decline. Ferroalloys may follow steel price movements, and while the upside is limited, the downside is also supported by cost [48] - With the increasing expectation of new soda ash production capacity, the expectation of oversupply is intensifying, and the futures price is breaking through the cost. The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further as glass cold repairs accelerate. High inventories in the upstream and midstream restrict the price [65] - From December to before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to undergo cold repairs, which may affect far - month pricing and market expectations. The near - month 01 contract will follow the reality (delivery logic) and be mainly driven by warehouse receipt games, which may become clearer in late December. Currently, the high inventory in the glass midstream needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [89] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3121, 3136, and 3173 respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3287, 3285, and 3301 respectively [4] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the aggregated rebar prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, and other regions were 3327, 3320, 3130, etc. respectively; the aggregated hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Lecong, and other regions were 3270, 3260, etc. respectively [8][10] - **Price Spreads**: On December 24, 2025, the 01 - 05 month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil were - 15 and 2 respectively; the 05 - 10 month spreads were - 37 and - 16 respectively; the 10 - 01 month spreads were 52 and 14 respectively. The 01, 05, and 10 contract spreads between hot - rolled coil and rebar were 166, 149, and 128 respectively [4][15] Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 798, 779.5, and 758 respectively; the 01, 05, and 09 contract bases were - 6.5, 11.5, and 33.5 respectively [22] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Carajás fines, and Rizhao Super Special were 787, 867, and 669 respectively [22] - **Fundamentals**: As of December 19, 2025, the daily average hot metal production was 226.55, the 45 - port inventory was 15512.63, and the 247 - steel mill inventory was 8723.95 [25] Coal and Coke - **Futures Price Spreads**: On December 24, 2025, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coking coal were 165, - 80, and - 85 respectively; the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coke were 219, - 74.5, and - 144.5 respectively [34] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1600, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 [37] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On December 24, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 76, the 01 - 05 spread was - 80, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5330 [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: On December 24, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 88, the 01 - 05 spread was - 70, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5570 [50] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 soda ash contracts were 1184, 1241, and 1117 respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 57, 124, and - 67 respectively [66] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the heavy - soda market prices in North China, South China, and other regions were 1300, 1400, etc. respectively; the light - soda market prices in North China, South China, and other regions were 1250, 1350, etc. respectively [66] Glass - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 glass contracts were 1048, 1145, and 941 respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 97, 204, and - 107 respectively [90] - **Spot Sales**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China regions showed different trends [91]