Core Points - The U.S. government has announced new "reciprocal tariffs" that will take effect on August 7, following President Trump's executive order signed on July 31 [1][2] - The new tariff rates reflect a more protectionist and isolationist trade policy, with significant implications for global trade dynamics [1][11] - The average tariff rate is expected to rise from 13.3% to 15.2% [6] Tariff Rates Summary - The maximum tariff rate is set at 41%, with a general rate of 10% for countries with a trade surplus with the U.S. [2] - Countries with a trade deficit will face a minimum tariff rate of 15%, affecting approximately 40 countries [2][3] - Specific countries have been assigned varying tariff rates, with Cambodia's rate dropping from 49% to 19%, while Switzerland's rate increased from 31% to 39% [4][3] Impact on Trade Partners - Canada will see its tariff rate increase from 25% to 35%, which has been met with disappointment from Canadian officials [5][4] - The U.S. has implemented a 40% additional penalty on goods deemed to be transshipped from high-tariff countries to low-tariff countries [3][4] - The new tariffs are expected to significantly impact industries such as textiles and automotive in affected countries [4][5] Negotiation and Agreements - The U.S. has only reached a limited number of trade agreements, with only 7 out of over 200 proposed agreements finalized [7][9] - Recent agreements with countries like Japan and South Korea have resulted in reduced tariff rates, but many details remain under negotiation [8][9] - The ongoing negotiations with China have resulted in a temporary extension of tariff suspensions, indicating a complex and evolving trade landscape [10][13] Legal and Economic Implications - Trump's tariff policies are facing legal challenges, with questions raised about the extent of presidential power in modifying tariff rates without congressional approval [11][12] - Economists warn that the new tariffs could have long-term negative effects on the global economy, particularly for Asian economies [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's official manufacturing PMI in July 2025 fell to 49.3, and the new orders index dropped to 49.4, while the non - manufacturing sector remained in expansion. The market demand for manufacturing has slowed down [1]. - In the long - term, A - shares have high investment value. Among them, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more supported by science and innovation policies and may bring higher returns, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2][9][10]. - Domestic glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. The market focus has returned to supply and demand, and the speed of upstream inventory digestion should be concerned in the future [3][15]. - Gold and silver may continue to fluctuate. The long - term drivers of gold still provide support, but the upward movement is hesitant due to high prices. Attention should be paid to the performance of the US non - farm payrolls [4][17]. Summary by Directory 1. Main News on the Day International News - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 1,000 to 218,000, lower than the market expectation of 224,000. The number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week remained unchanged at 1.946 million [5]. Domestic News - In June 2025, China's exports of goods and services in the balance of payments were $329.2 billion, imports were $259.1 billion, and the surplus was $70.1 billion [6]. Industry News - In the first half of the year, the newly installed capacity of renewable energy in China was 268 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 99.3%, accounting for about 91.5% of the newly installed capacity. The installed capacity of new energy storage reached 94.91 million kilowatts/222 million kilowatt - hours, an increase of about 29% compared with the end of 2024 [7]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 fell 0.37%, the European STOXX 50 dropped 1.11%, the FTSE China A50 futures declined 1.69%, the US dollar index rose 0.08%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.25%, London gold spot rose 0.45%, London silver dropped 1.16%, LME metals declined to varying degrees, and most agricultural products in CBOT showed small fluctuations [8]. 3. Morning Comments on Main Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes fell, and the stock index had a significant correction in the previous trading day. The banking sector with high interest and low volatility has performed well since 2025. In the long - term, A - shares have high investment value [2][9][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds continued to rise, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.70%. In the short - term, when the equity and commodity markets are weak, the price of treasury bond futures may continue to stabilize [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The sc night session fell 0.71%. Trump's tariff policies have added uncertainty to global oil demand. The US crude oil production in May reached a record high of 13.49 million barrels per day. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [12]. - **Methanol**: The methanol night session fell 0.08%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants decreased slightly, and the coastal methanol inventory increased. Methanol is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term [13]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures mainly declined. The market is mainly driven by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the autumn stocking market after supply and demand digestion [14]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures continued to correct. Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to the speed of upstream inventory digestion [3][15]. - **Rubber**: The price of raw rubber is supported by supply - side factors, but the demand - side support is weak. The inventory in Qingdao is increasing, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [16]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold rebounded after a decline, and silver continued to correct. The Fed's internal views are divided, and the market is speculating on the possibility of a rate cut in September. Gold and silver may continue to fluctuate [4][17]. - **Copper**: The copper price at night session closed lower. The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the combination of long and short factors. Attention should be paid to the progress of US tariffs and other factors [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price at night session closed higher. The zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the progress of US tariffs and other factors [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate rose significantly due to the mining qualification issue in Jiangxi. The inventory continued to increase, and the fundamentals are still under pressure. The short - term core contradiction lies in the warehouse receipt inventory [20][21]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported, but the medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The iron ore price is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish in the future [22]. - **Steel**: The decline of rebar is greater than that of hot - rolled coil. The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant for the time being, and the steel price is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish in the future [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the Politburo meeting, the short - term market sentiment has declined. After the correction, it is expected to maintain a range - bound and slightly bullish trend [24]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal futures were weakly volatile at night. The good growth of US soybeans has put pressure on the price, but the import cost will support the domestic soybean meal price [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats futures closed slightly lower at night. The expected inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in July has dragged down the palm oil price, and the oils and fats are expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [26][27]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC was weakly volatile, and the 10 - contract closed at 1425.1 points, down 4.66%. The market will continue to game the off - season freight rate, and attention should be paid to the degree and slope of the freight rate correction [28].

Group 1 - Citigroup reports increasing demand for quantitative funds seeking to enter China's A-shares market [2] - Deutsche Bank indicates that the European Central Bank's easing cycle has ended, with the next action being interest rate hikes [2] Group 2 - CICC suggests that U.S. steel prices may remain high in the short term, with a potential upward shift in the long-term average [3] - Guotai Junan estimates that the scale of childcare subsidies could reach an annual average of 100 billion, boosting demand in the dairy industry and others [3] - CITIC Securities highlights that the newly announced childcare subsidy plan will clearly benefit maternal and infant retail chains [3] - Huatai Securities notes that the new policies from WAIC in Shanghai will accelerate the development of Robotaxi [3] - Minsheng Fixed Income states that the short-term space for interest rate increases is limited, with the yield curve being influenced by long-term rates [3] - CITIC Securities continues to focus on issuers likely to obtain the first batch of stablecoin licenses and platforms that are deterministically involved in the creation of stablecoin usage scenarios [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a total of 55 stocks hitting the daily limit up on July 30, indicating strong market activity [1] - The tourism sector led with Xizang Tourism achieving an impressive 8 consecutive limit-up days, showcasing significant investor interest [1] - Happiness Blue Sea, a film industry stock, recorded 3 consecutive limit-up days, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the entertainment sector [1] Group 2 - Steel stocks such as Xining Special Steel and Bayi Steel both achieved 2 consecutive limit-up days, indicating a favorable trend in the steel industry [1] - Other notable stocks with 3 consecutive limit-up days include Southern Road Machinery (water conservancy), Huaci Co. (ceramics), and Foci Pharmaceutical (pharmaceuticals), highlighting diverse sectors performing well [1] - The overall performance of these stocks suggests a bullish trend in various industries, with a particular emphasis on tourism and entertainment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and Tianjin government have issued a comprehensive set of policies aimed at enhancing financial support for high-quality development in Tianjin, with 34 key measures outlined to promote economic growth and innovation in the region [1]. Financial Support for Technology and Innovation - The first commercial paper backed by intellectual property assets in China was issued, raising 166 million yuan for eight technology companies in Tianjin, showcasing the city's commitment to enhancing its technology finance ecosystem [2]. - The balance of technology loans in Tianjin reached 885.04 billion yuan by May 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [3]. Green Finance Initiatives - The Tianjin branch of the People's Bank of China has developed national standards for green finance, including the first green commercial factoring standard and a green leasing project evaluation guideline [4]. - By June 2025, the balance of green loans in Tianjin was 825.7 billion yuan, an increase of 15.9% from the beginning of the year [4]. Inclusive Financial Services - The Tianjin government has implemented ten measures to support private enterprises, focusing on alleviating financing difficulties for small and micro businesses, as well as enhancing financial services for rural revitalization and elderly care [5][6]. - As of May 2025, loans for the elderly care industry reached 3.697 billion yuan, with significant growth in loans for small and micro enterprises and agricultural sectors [6]. Digital Financial Services Enhancement - The Tianjin financial sector has made strides in digital transformation, with over 3 financial technology innovation projects and 3100 digital business transactions amounting to 2.8 billion USD by June 2025 [7]. High-Level Financial Openness - The Tianjin branch of the People's Bank of China has facilitated cross-border RMB transactions for 2970 enterprises, with the FT account business scale exceeding 1.29 trillion yuan by June 2025 [8]. - The city has also expanded the coverage of foreign exchange facilitation policies, with 19 banks and 396 enterprises participating, processing a cumulative business volume of over 53.5 billion USD [8]. Industry-Specific Financial Solutions - The Tianjin financial sector has introduced innovative financing models for key industries, including the "津采e贷" and international factoring services, to support local enterprises [9]. - By June 2025, the manufacturing sector received 4.471 billion yuan in priority funding, demonstrating the focus on supporting industrial chains [9]. Economic Performance - In the first half of 2025, Tianjin's GDP grew by 5.3%, with a social financing scale increase of 305.8 billion yuan, indicating robust financial support for the real economy [10].

Group 1 - The postponement of the "2+2" tariff negotiations between South Korea and the U.S. adds uncertainty to the already tense South Korea-U.S. relations, highlighting South Korea's difficult position in the complex international landscape [1] - South Korea is under pressure due to the U.S. imposing a tariff deadline of August 1, with the country eager to avoid a 25% comprehensive tariff, especially as Japan has already reached a tariff agreement with the U.S. [1] - South Korea has set two "red lines" in negotiations: not opening the rice and beef markets, as its grain self-sufficiency rate is low, with only 19.5% from 2021 to 2023, and zero self-sufficiency in wheat and corn [1] Group 2 - In 2024, South Korea imported $2.22 billion worth of U.S. beef, making it a major importer, but the U.S. is pushing to lift the ban on U.S. beef imports over 30 months, facing strong opposition from the South Korean agricultural sector [3] - South Korea's recent diplomatic interactions with the U.S. have seen multiple cancellations of meetings, indicating U.S. dissatisfaction with South Korea's proposals and an attempt to assert dominance in the bilateral relationship [3] Group 3 - On July 25, South Korea's Ministry of Trade announced a request for anti-dumping duties of 28.16% to 33.57% on carbon steel and hot-rolled steel from China, which raises questions about its timing amid ongoing U.S. tariff negotiations [5] - This anti-dumping investigation was initiated earlier in the year, but its announcement during critical negotiations suggests a strategic move to appease the U.S. while deflecting responsibility from the current government [5] Group 4 - South Korea is navigating a complex geopolitical environment, heavily reliant on U.S. military protection while also depending on China as its largest trading partner, with trade volumes exceeding $300 billion in 2024 [6] - The current administration appears to be leaning towards the U.S., as evidenced by recent actions such as rejecting China's invitation to a military parade and imposing tariffs on Chinese steel, signaling a shift in diplomatic posture [8] Group 5 - Over-reliance on the U.S. could jeopardize South Korea's relationship with China, which is crucial for its economic development, as many industries depend on Chinese raw materials [8] - The imposition of tariffs on Chinese steel may lead to increased costs for South Korean industries, potentially escalating trade tensions and undermining established economic cooperation [8]

Group 1 - The G20 Development Ministers' Meeting is held in Mpumalanga, South Africa, focusing on enhancing social protection and combating illicit financial flows [1] - President Trump announces a new trade agreement with the EU, imposing a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the US, while key areas like steel, aluminum, chips, and spirits remain unresolved [2] - The European Central Bank's council member states there is little reason to further lower interest rates unless the economy faces significant shocks [2] Group 2 - The Russian Central Bank lowers its benchmark interest rate from 20% to 18%, maintaining a tight monetary policy until inflation returns to target levels by 2026 [3] - US durable goods orders fell by 9.3% in June, the largest decline since April 2020, with core durable goods orders unexpectedly dropping by 0.7% [3] - The US stock market sees record margin account borrowing exceeding $1 trillion for the first time [3] Group 3 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rises by 0.47% to 44,901.92 points, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reaching new historical highs [4] - COMEX gold futures decline by 1.04% to $3,338.50 per ounce, while silver futures drop by 2.29% to $38.33 per ounce [4] Group 4 - US oil futures decrease by 1.45% to $65.07 per barrel, and Brent crude futures fall by 1.11% to $67.60 per barrel [5] - The 2-year US Treasury yield rises by 0.91 basis points, while the 10-year yield decreases by 0.99 basis points to 4.388% [5] Group 5 - The US dollar index increases by 0.19% to 97.67, with various currency pairs showing mixed performance against the dollar [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, confirmed that the deadline for imposing tariffs on trade partners is set for August 1, with no extensions or grace periods [2] Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The tariffs will officially take effect on August 1, and customs will begin collecting them [2] - A few countries have reached agreements with the Trump administration, resulting in tariff levels higher than the new 10% baseline but lower than the threatened higher rates [2] Group 2: U.S.-EU Trade Negotiations - Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, is scheduled to meet with President Trump to negotiate a trade agreement before the August 1 deadline, or face tariffs up to 30% on EU exports to the U.S. [6][7] - The outcome of the negotiations largely depends on Trump's decisions, as he has previously altered terms at the last minute [7] - The EU is proposing a 15% tariff cap on most trade with the U.S., with certain exemptions for specific products [7][8] Group 3: Business Delegation to China - A high-level U.S. business delegation is set to visit China, organized by the U.S.-China Business Council, to potentially restart commercial negotiations [4][5] - The delegation will include executives from Boeing and the U.S.-China Business Council, indicating a significant engagement in trade discussions [3][4]

Group 1 - The Canadian government imposed a 25% punitive tariff on steel containing Chinese components, a move seen as a response to U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum products [1][3] - The Canadian steel industry has experienced a 30% drop in production due to these tariffs, while the government has chosen to target China instead of confronting the U.S. directly [3] - The policy disproportionately affects China, with all countries that have free trade agreements with the U.S. being exempt from these tariffs, leading to criticism from trade experts [3] Group 2 - In retaliation, China placed a significant order worth $3.7 billion with Australia, including 150,000 tons of canola seeds, which directly impacts Canada's economy [4][6] - Canada previously exported 4 million tons of canola seeds to China annually, but exports have now plummeted to a mere 0.03%, causing a 12% drop in canola prices and the closure of seven oilseed processing plants [6] - The situation has led to widespread discontent among Canadian farmers, with protests against the government's policies and a report highlighting a loss of CAD 9 billion in business due to short-sighted political decisions [8][6] Group 3 - Australia is benefiting from the situation, with its agricultural sector thriving as it secures new agreements with China, including the re-entry of previously banned products like Australian wine [6][4] - The Canadian government faces backlash from its citizens, with political leaders criticizing the decision to sacrifice farmers' livelihoods for U.S. favor [8] - The stark contrast between the economic conditions in Canada and Australia is evident, with Canadian ports experiencing a backlog of containers while Australian ports are bustling with activity [8][6]

Group 1: Economic Growth and Industrial Performance - Jiangsu province's industrial added value increased by 7.4% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with strategic emerging industries accounting for 42.1% of the total industrial output, up 0.5 percentage points from last year [1] - High-tech industries' output accounted for 51.8% of the province's total industrial output, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point increase from the first quarter [2] - Traditional industries remain significant, with manufacturing investment growing by 0.5%, particularly in automotive (21.6%), textiles (26.9%), and rubber and plastics (11.2%) [5] Group 2: Emerging Industries and Innovation - The number of high-tech enterprises in Jiangsu accounted for 36.3% of the province's industrial enterprises, generating 73.6% of the high-tech industry output [2] - Jiangsu is positioning itself as a leader in low-altitude economy, with over 30 companies in the drone manufacturing sector and a significant increase in drone take-off and landing sites [4] - The province has seen a surge in innovative pharmaceuticals, with 11 new drugs approved for market, ranking first in the country [8] Group 3: Technological Advancements and Digital Economy - Jiangsu has established 1,808 advanced intelligent factories, with significant growth in high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing [7] - The province is actively exploring the integration of digital economy and traditional industries, with a 7.9% increase in the core digital economy industries' sales [9] - A total of 41 strategic emerging industry funds have been established, with a total scale exceeding 100 billion yuan, enhancing capital capabilities across the province [9][10]