Group 1 - The article discusses Trump's decision to raise tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, aiming to address the decline of the U.S. shipbuilding industry and regain maritime power [1][4] - It highlights that over 70% of new shipbuilding orders in 2022 were secured by China, with Chinese shipyards dominating 14 out of 18 major ship types globally, and accounting for 55% of the world's shipbuilding completion [1][3] - The U.S. shipbuilding industry is struggling, with its commercial ship production expected to account for only 0.1% of global output by 2024, despite previous government subsidies aimed at revitalizing the sector [3][4] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that steel and aluminum are critical to shipbuilding, with steel costs representing approximately 30% of the total cost of a commercial ship, suggesting that increased tariffs could significantly boost domestic steel production [4][8] - It notes that the U.S. government has previously attempted to attract foreign shipbuilding companies to establish operations in the U.S., but these efforts have largely failed, leaving American shipbuilders unable to compete with their foreign counterparts [3][6] - The article illustrates a specific case involving Nippon Steel's attempt to acquire U.S. Steel, which was blocked by the U.S. government, highlighting the challenges faced by American steel companies in the current market [6][8]

双方将重点就以下议题交换意见：推动乌克兰局势缓和与和平进程、北约在当前国际安全形势下的应对 方式以及美欧之间持续存在的贸易摩擦问题，特别是美国近期提出的提高钢铁与铝产品关税事宜。6月4 日，美国进口钢铝关税从25%提高至50%的政策正式生效。 据了解，这是默茨自5月6日就任德国总理以来首次与特朗普面对面会晤。 两人曾在数年前于纽约有过一次短暂接触。为筹备本次访问，德国外交部长约翰.瓦德富尔已于上周提 前抵达华盛顿，与美国国务卿马尔科.鲁比奥进行会谈。 消息面上，当地时间4日，欧盟贸易专员塞夫科维奇表示，当天与美国贸易代表格里尔进行了建设性会 谈。 关于特朗普政府关税谈判问题，塞夫科维奇称，双方正在朝着正确的方向稳步推进。 当地时间6月2日，欧盟委员会新闻发言人表示，欧盟对美国宣布将钢铁和铝关税从25%提高至50%深表 遗憾，这一决定进一步加剧了大西洋两岸的经济不确定性。发言人称谈判仍在继续——双方已同意加快 谈判进程。 此外，还有一则消息值得注意，德国联邦总理弗里德里希.默茨将启程前往美国，展开上任以来首次对 华盛顿的正式访问。按照计划，他将于5日在白宫与美国总统唐纳德.特朗普举行闭门会谈，并出席相关 活动。 ...

美国总统特朗普4月2日公布了面向全球广泛的对等关税，引发全球贸易市场轩然大波。4月9日，特朗普 暂停了对大多数美国贸易伙伴的对等关税，暂停期限为90天，将高额关税的生效期推迟到7月9日。 据路透社报道，距离对等关税恢复期限仅剩五周，特朗普政府发出紧急信函要求各国在本周三前提交贸 易谈判的最佳方案。 据路透社获得的美国贸易代表办公室的一份信件草案显示，美国政府正在向谈判伙伴施压，要求各国在 关键领域提供最佳方案，包括购买美国工农业产品的关税和配额方案。 报道称，该草案表明，美国政府内部对完成交易存在紧迫感。尽管白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西 特反复承诺多项协议即将达成，但迄今为止，美国仅与英国这一主要贸易伙伴达成协议，且该协议更像 是持续谈判的框架而非最终交易。报道称，目前尚不清楚这封信会具体发送给哪些国家，但目标是那些 正在进行积极谈判的包括日本、越南、印度等国家以及欧盟。 美提高进口钢铝关税欧盟称将反制 美欧关系近期因美国滥施关税持续紧张。欧盟委员会2日表示，本周将向美国提出强有力的理由，要求 美国降低或取消关税。 欧盟委员会发言人奥洛夫·吉尔2日称，欧盟对美国宣布将钢铁进口关税从25%提高到50%表示强 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.50 | 49.00 | 49.50 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.30 | 50.40 | 51.10 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 50.40 | 51.20 | 51.40 | | 20250506 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | % | 50.70 | 51.90 | 52.50 | | | | 社会融资规模增量:当 | | | | | | 202505 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing US-Japan tariff negotiations are critical, with Japan pushing for the complete removal of tariffs while the US remains resistant. The recent phone call between Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and President Trump has introduced new dynamics into the discussions, particularly regarding investment and economic security [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - Japan has consistently requested the full cancellation of tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminum, but the US has not agreed to this demand [1]. - The third round of tariff negotiations, held on May 23, continued the previous discussions' tone, with Japanese Economic Revitalization Minister Akira Amari stating that the exchanges were more candid and in-depth than before [1][2]. - A new round of negotiations is scheduled for May 30 in Washington, indicating ongoing efforts to reach an agreement [1]. Group 2: Strategic Discussions - The phone call between Ishiba and Trump covered several key topics, including plans for a face-to-face meeting during the G7 summit, economic security-related tariff negotiations, and potential Japanese procurement of US fighter jets [2]. - Japan is considering establishing a "Japan-US Shipbuilding Fund" to revitalize its shipbuilding industry, which could enhance cooperation in sectors deemed critical to national security by the US [2]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Trump's recent Middle East trip resulted in approximately $2 trillion in investment agreements, which he communicated to Ishiba, aiming to encourage Japan to increase its investments in the US [2]. - Japan has already invested significantly in US manufacturing, but further investments are seen as necessary under Trump's "revitalize American manufacturing" agenda [2]. Group 4: Broader Trade Context - The situation with the EU serves as a cautionary tale for Japan, as delays in trade negotiations have led to threats of increased tariffs from the US [3]. - The outcome of the G7 summit, particularly regarding breakthroughs in automotive and steel tariffs, could have substantial implications for related industries in Japan [3].

Group 1 - The recent 20-year U.S. Treasury bond auction was disappointing, with a high bid rate of 5.047%, marking the second instance in history where the winning yield exceeded 5% and the largest tail risk in six months [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio fell from an average of 2.57 to 2.46, indicating reduced demand for U.S. debt amid high fiscal uncertainty and low policy credibility [1] - Concerns over the U.S. high debt levels and the potential expansion of the deficit due to the proposed "Beautiful America Act" are seen as fundamental reasons for the weak auction results and a new wave of selling U.S. dollar assets [1] Group 2 - As of the end of 2024, the total outstanding debt of the U.S. federal government reached $36.2 trillion, with foreign investors holding slightly over $9 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities [3] - The allocation of U.S. debt to foreign investors, including central banks, has dropped to the lowest level since 2019, at only 58.88% during the latest 30-year bond auction, continuing a trend of decline since October of the previous year [3] - Japan and the UK, both facing turmoil in their bond markets, are the top two foreign holders of U.S. debt, with Japan increasing its holdings by $4.9 billion in March 2025, while China reduced its holdings by $18.9 billion, falling to the third-largest holder [3] Group 3 - China has been gradually selling off U.S. Treasury bonds, which is viewed as a warning to the U.S., and has also been increasing its gold reserves, reaching 7.377 million ounces by the end of April 2025 [6] - The increase in gold reserves reflects China's trend towards diversifying its foreign exchange reserves, while its significant U.S. debt holdings are a result of decades of trade surpluses with the U.S. [6] - Japan's Prime Minister expressed a strong desire for the U.S. to reassess various tariff measures, particularly on automobiles, which are crucial for Japan's economy [6][9]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No explicit industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - For building materials, it is expected to have an oscillating and sorting operation. The price center of building materials has been moving downward. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is rather sluggish, with weak support for prices [4]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to have a short - term strong - side oscillation. The inventory in the East China region has been decreasing, and holders generally have a strong willingness to hold up prices, but the downstream buying has weakened. In the Central China market, the consumption is showing a weakening trend [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Building Materials - **Production Disruption**: Yunnan - Guizhou region's short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui Province, 6 short - process steel mills have shutdown or will shutdown, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [3][4]. - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - **Market Performance**: Building materials continued to oscillate downward yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support. The view is an oscillating and sorting operation [4]. - **Later Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. Aluminum Ingots - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, the aluminum price moved within a range. In the East China region, due to the decreasing inventory, holders have a strong willingness to hold up prices, but the downstream buying is weakening, and the market transaction is becoming lighter. In the Central China market, the consumption is showing a weakening trend, and the spot premium is under pressure [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: On May 26, 2025, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas in China was 534,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons from last Thursday and 51,000 tons from last Monday. In the short term, the inventory is expected to continue to decrease, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season [4]. - **Industry Operation**: The operating rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises in China decreased slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 61.4% last week, with different trends in each sector [4]. - **Later Concerns**: Changes in macro - expectations, development of geopolitical crises, resumption of production at the mine end, and consumption release [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to move in a range-bound and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [1][2]. - The aluminum ingot price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunguizhou region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and restart: The shutdown time is mostly in mid - to late January, and the restart time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown [1]. - Anhui's short - process steel mills' shutdown: One of the 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest plan to shut down around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2]. - New commercial housing transaction area: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - Market situation: The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [2]. - Later concerns: Macro policies and downstream demand [2]. Aluminum Ingots - Macro factors: The US dollar fell again on Tuesday due to the Fed's cautious attitude towards the economy, while China released signals of loose monetary policy, improving market expectations and stimulating economic growth and investment and consumption demand [1]. - Ore - end situation: Guinea's government announced the recovery of 51 mining licenses, causing disturbances in the ore end. As of May 16, the average cost of the alumina industry decreased to 2,812 yuan/ton, a decrease of 386 yuan/ton compared to early April, with the bauxite cost decreasing by 323 yuan/ton and the caustic soda cost decreasing by 54 yuan/ton. The alumina industry has turned profitable on average, and some alumina production capacity may resume production. However, due to the resurgence of disturbances in the bauxite supply end, there is a possibility of a rebound in bauxite prices, and alumina costs may change again [2]. - Import and inventory: In April 2025, China imported 20.684 million tons of bauxite, a 25.62% increase from the previous month and a 45.44% increase year - on - year. As of May 19, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas in China was 585,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last Thursday and a decrease of 16,000 tons from last Monday. The arrival of goods increased significantly over the weekend, and the subsequent destocking speed is likely to slow down. Whether it will turn to inventory accumulation depends on the matching between the replenishment demand increment of downstream export orders and the subsequent arrival increment. Normally, due to smooth domestic transportation in May and the expected weakening of off - season warehousing, the circulation in the mainstream consumption areas in China may gradually loosen at the end of May and early June [2]. - Later concerns: Changes in macro expectations, development of geopolitical crises, ore - end resumption of production, and consumption release [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 20, 2025, the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates were both cut by 10 basis points, in line with market expectations. A new round of deposit rate cuts may drive more funds into the stock market, bond market, and wealth management products, bringing new liquidity to the capital market. The decline in LPR is expected to boost residents' housing consumption and is more significant for the stock market from the perspective of investment yield and wealth effect [7]. - The precious metals sector rebounded significantly last night, with gold rising nearly 2%. Due to factors such as the setbacks in the Russia - Ukraine negotiations, the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's, and the increase in China's gold imports in April, gold still has long - term allocation value [8][9]. - Since May, the stock index futures market has continued to rise after filling the gap caused by reciprocal tariffs. The upward movement is mainly driven by policy easing and lower interest rates, but the macro - economic fundamentals are complex, and short - term fluctuations may occur [10][11]. - The industrial silicon market has a weak fundamental situation. With the approaching of the rainy season in Southwest China and the expected resumption of production in Northwest China, supply may increase, while demand remains weak. It is recommended to short at high prices [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - Last night, the precious metals sector rebounded strongly, with gold rising nearly 2%. The reasons for the rebound include the setbacks in the Russia - Ukraine negotiations, the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's, and the increase in China's gold imports in April. Gold still has long - term allocation value [8][9]. - Gold trend strength is 1, and silver trend strength is 1 [22]. Stock Index Futures - Since May, the market has continued to rise after filling the gap caused by reciprocal tariffs. The upward movement is driven by policy easing and lower interest rates. However, the macro - economic fundamentals are complex, and short - term fluctuations may occur. Overall, the market is expected to be bullish in the medium - term, but short - term disturbances from the real economy should be noted [10][11]. Industrial Silicon - The fundamental situation is weak. Supply is expected to increase as silicon plants in Southwest and Northwest China may resume production, while demand remains weak, mainly for rigid replenishment. It is recommended to short at high prices [12]. - Industrial silicon trend strength is - 1 [50]. Copper - Copper inventory is continuously decreasing, which supports the price. Macro - news includes Japan's consideration of accepting US tariff cuts and the progress of the India - US trade agreement. Micro - news includes the cooperation between Codelco and Rio Tinto and the clearance of scrap copper in the US. China's refined copper production in April 2025 increased year - on - year [24][26]. - Copper trend strength is 1 [26]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, and alumina is expected to trade in a range. An alumina plant in Shanxi postponed its maintenance, and China's alumina exports in April 2025 increased year - on - year while imports decreased [27][29]. - Aluminum trend strength is 0, and alumina trend strength is 0 [29]. Zinc - Zinc is in a range - adjustment phase. High - profile news includes the prediction of the EU - US negotiation by Goldman Sachs and the progress of the India - US and Japan - US trade agreements [30][31]. - Zinc trend strength is 0 [31]. Lead - Lead is expected to trade in a range. Similar to zinc, high - profile news includes international trade - related news [33]. - Lead trend strength is 0 [33]. Tin - Tin is in a narrow - range oscillation. Macro and industry news includes multiple international events such as the potential attack on Iran's nuclear facilities by Israel [35][37]. - Tin trend strength is - 1 [38]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - For nickel, the contradiction in nickel ore provides support, but the economic viability of conversion may limit the upside potential. For stainless steel, the cost bottom is clear, but there is a lack of substantial driving force for upward movement. Indonesia has adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel products, and there are also news about production and trade in the nickel industry [39][40][43]. - Nickel trend strength is 0, and stainless steel trend strength is 0 [44]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is in a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the trading situation at the mine end. The prices of lithium carbonate and related raw materials are declining, and China's imports of lithium - related products in April 2025 showed different trends [45][47]. - Lithium carbonate trend strength is - 1 [47]. Iron Ore - Short - term positive factors have been realized, and the driving force for price increases is slowing down. The LPR rate cut on May 20 is the latest macro - news [51][52]. - Iron ore trend strength is - 1 [52]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Both rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a low - level oscillation. News includes South Korea's anti - dumping tax on stainless steel plates and China's steel production data in April 2025 [54][57]. - Rebar trend strength is 0, and hot - rolled coil trend strength is 0 [57][58]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the resonance of the black - metal sector, and silicomanganese is expected to fluctuate weakly as Australian manganese ore shipments resume. There is a lot of news about the spot prices, production, and trade of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [59][62]. - Ferrosilicon trend strength is 0, and silicomanganese trend strength is 0 [63]. Coke and Coking Coal - Both coke and coking coal are in a bottom - oscillation phase. There is information about their spot prices, basis, and position changes [64][66]. - Coke trend strength is 0, and coking coal trend strength is 0 [67]. Steam Coal - Steam coal is expected to oscillate weakly as coal mine inventories increase. There is information about its spot prices and position changes [68][69]. - Steam coal trend strength is 0 [70]. Logs - Logs are in a weak oscillation. No specific analysis details are provided [71].

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：矿端扰动再起 成本端支撑走强 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 5 月 19 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 证监许可【2011】 ...