为攻坚牛蓄力，与如何理解新一轮盈利周期？20251207 企业费用结构变化如何？ 摘要 10 月工业增加值同比增长 6.9%，维持高位增长；PPI 同比降幅收窄至- 2.1%，为 2024 年 9 月以来最高，显示工业生产端持续修复，但企业利 润率同比下降至 5.11%。 10 月工业企业毛利率为 14.4%，净利润率为 5.11%，均处于历史较低 水平，成本端压力较大，1-10 月成本率同比增长 0.17 个百分点，费用 端费用率同比略有上升，表明企业盈利能力面临挑战。 企业费用结构出现变化，销售费用和管理费用占比下降，而研发费用显 著增长，同比增长 36.78%，研发费用占比从 2018 年的 2.68%上升至 27%左右，反映企业加大研发投入力度。 10 月工业企业应收账款同比增速放缓至 5.1%，且连续 7 个月增速放缓， 但应收账款回收周期缩短至 69 天，表明企业回款情况边际改善，现金 流状况或将好转。 装备制造业和高技术制造业利润呈现快速增长，1-10 月分别同比增长 7%和 8%，其中电路、船舶、航空航天、智能电子制造、无人飞行器及 智能车载设备、集成电路制造等行业表现突出。 Q&A 目前工业 ...

科技和产业融合创新持续深化，更多创新成果从"实验室"走到"生产线"，创新"势能"向经济"动能"不断转化。 前三季度，规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增长9.6%，其中，工业机器人、3D打印设备、工业控制计算机及系统产量分别增长29.8%、40.5%、 98.0%。 ■创新之势 引领未来 今年以来，我国持续加大创新投入，众多科技领域实现突破。以创新之进，促发展之稳，中国经济动力更足、韧性更强。 人工智能、脑机接口等前沿技术超前布局，带动数字经济快速增长。前三季度，规模以上数字产品制造业增加值同比增长9.7%。 ■创新之潮 奔涌而起 世界知识产权组织近期发布的报告显示，2025年我国创新指数首次跻身全球前十，拥有的全球百强创新集群数量达24个，连续三年位居各国之 首，其中"深圳—香港—广州"集群首次登顶全球首位。 7月24日，在哈尔滨电机厂有限责任公司线圈分厂智能制造车间，技术人员操作智能数控设备进行生产作业。新华社记者 王松摄 ■创新之果 产业勃发 这是11月3日在郑州航空港区比亚迪总装工厂拍摄的新能源汽车"宋Pro"生产线。新华社记者 李嘉南 摄 编导：龙泠宇 包装：胡心懿 记者：杨子春、吴鸿波、王欢、潘志伟、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the General Administration of Customs outlines a clear trajectory of China's manufacturing transformation, indicating a shift from "Made in China" to "Intelligent Manufacturing in China" [1] Group 1: Technological Dimension - The need for "breaking the chain" in technology to connect basic research with industrial application is emphasized, as current high-tech manufacturing expansion is supported by breakthroughs in fields like high-speed rail and renewable energy, but still faces gaps in core chips and high-end components [1] - A proposed solution includes building an innovation ecosystem that integrates basic research, technological breakthroughs, and industrialization, with a focus on quantum technology and biomanufacturing at the national level [1] Group 2: Industrial Dimension - The impressive performance of high-tech product exports is attributed to the rise of industrial clusters in sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics, but small and medium-sized enterprises face challenges in digital transformation and supply chain collaboration [2] - A "leading enterprise + supporting cluster" model is suggested to drive upgrades, encouraging leading companies to integrate the supply chain and promote technological upgrades among supporting enterprises [2] Group 3: Policy Dimension - The continuous expansion of high-tech manufacturing relies on supportive policies such as R&D expense deductions and export tax rebates, but to achieve leadership, policies need to shift from "universal" to "precise" [2] - Recommendations include optimizing innovation incentive mechanisms, strengthening intellectual property protection, and promoting international standard-setting in advantageous fields like new energy vehicles [2] Group 4: Talent Dimension - The need for a "collaborative talent pool" to address structural supply contradictions is highlighted, as the demand for skilled talent in manufacturing is not being met [3] - A dual-driven system of "R&D talent + skilled talent" is proposed, including vocational education reforms and mechanisms to attract young people into the manufacturing sector [3] Conclusion - The transition from "Made in China" to "Intelligent Manufacturing in China" is characterized as a systemic leap rather than a linear progression, with a call for strategic determination to achieve a leading position in the global manufacturing landscape [3]

固定收益/固收点评 PMI 数据对债市的影响中性偏多 ——11 月 PMI 数据点评 地缘政治风险；美联储货币政策超预期；海外经济增速不及预期；国 内通胀超市场预期；上市公司业绩不及预期；市场波动超预期。 ◼ 核心观点 制造业需求带动、生产回升，PMI 小幅回升。11 月制造业 PMI 为 49.20%，较前值回升 0.2 个百分点，但仍低于枯荣线。其中，需求端 新订单指数回升 0.40 个百分点至 49.20%；供给端生产指数回升 0.3 个百分点至 50.00%。我们认为在中美经贸磋商达成主要成果共识带 动下我国外贸环境有所改善，需求整体回升，同时带动生产端也有所 加快。 国际贸易环境改善，外需回升带动需求阶段性修复。11 月新出口订 单指数录得 47.60%，较前值回升 1.70 个百分点，进口指数录得 47.00%，较前值回升 0.20 个百分点。十一月份外部贸易环境有所改 善，反映在 BDI 指数上显示为其月增幅达 31.28%，我们认为当前短 期外部环境面临缓和，但也要注意到未来不确定难预料因素带来的非 线性影响，出口受扰动概率仍存，或持续影响四季度经济走势。 制造业价格端延续积极变化。制造业原材 ...

· 前三季度GDP 40721.17% +5.5% 一图看懂>> 人工智能 制造业 +12.8% 高技术制造业 产值 物价收入 进出口 全市货物进出口总额 +5.4% 出口总额 +11.3% 进口总额 +1.1% 第八届进博会 · 意向成交额(按一年计) +4.4% 图中数据范围: 2025年前三季度 "+"均为同比增长 FP/K 展现新作 | 新兴动能显著增强 三大先导产业 制造业产值 +8.5% +10.3% 航空航天器及设备 制造业产值 +20.6% ---- ----- · 居民消费价格 First · 居民人均可支配收入 +4.3% | 民营经济增长较快 参考来源|上海市统计局 策划 | 明智 编辑|漆辛夷 ● 制图|方舟 规模以上民营企业 1-8月, 民营企业服 工业总产值 nes 数 +9.8% +9 u ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in November shows a slight recovery to 49.2%, indicating improvements in both domestic and overseas demand, although it remains in a contraction zone for the eighth consecutive month [2][5]. Economic Indicators - The November PMI reflects improvements in 11 sub-indices, including new orders and production expectations, with a composite PMI output index at 49.7%, suggesting overall economic stability [2][5]. - The new orders index increased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.2%, while the production index rose to the critical point of 50.0%, indicating a return to expansion after a contraction [5][6]. Policy Impact - Recent government policies, including the introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and an additional 500 billion yuan in special bonds, are expected to stimulate domestic market demand and infrastructure investment [5][8]. - The positive outcomes from recent US-China trade talks have also contributed to a marginal increase in export orders, with the new export orders index rising by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, marking the largest increase in six months [5][6]. Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing sectors continue to show strong demand, with their PMIs remaining above the critical point for ten consecutive months, while traditional energy-intensive industries are still in contraction [6]. - Specific industries such as agricultural processing and non-ferrous metal smelting are experiencing active demand, whereas sectors like petroleum and chemical manufacturing are lagging [6][7]. Price Trends - The main raw material price index rose by 1.1 percentage points to 53.6%, indicating ongoing expansion since the implementation of "anti-involution" policies [7]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to see a slight month-on-month increase, although year-on-year comparisons may still reflect a decline due to higher base effects from the previous year [7][8]. Future Outlook - The construction PMI is anticipated to rise into the expansion zone as the effects of the new policy financial tools and special bonds materialize [8]. - The overall industrial product prices remain subdued, influenced by weak consumer demand and declining real estate investments, with the long-term effects of "anti-involution" policies on prices still under observation [8].

在"稳"的基础上，中国经济结构优化、动能转换的"进"的步伐坚定有力。2025年，我国高质量发展扎实 推进，新质生产力加速形成。前三季度，规模以上装备制造业和高技术制造业增加值占比分别达35.9% 和16.7%，产业升级态势明显。全球创新指数排名跃升至第10位，创新引领作用愈发突出。设备工器具 购置投资同比增长14%，锂离子电池制造、新能源汽车等新兴产业增加值保持高速增长，彰显创新驱动 与产业升级的深度融合。促进消费、设备更新、技术改造等宏观政策组合拳精准发力，有效激发内需潜 力，推动经济结构的深层优化……这些"进"的成效，表明中国经济正在加快从要素驱动向创新驱动转 变，从规模速度型向质量效率型升级，为2026年进一步深化供给侧结构性改革、塑造发展新优势蓄势增 能。 当前，我国经济运行持续保持总体平稳、稳中有进的发展态势，展现出强大的发展韧性和光明前景。展 望2026年，面对深刻演变的国内外环境，准确把握经济大势，科学谋划发展蓝图，对于巩固和增强经济 回升向好态势，具有至关重要的意义。 "稳"是基本盘，是应对一切风险挑战的底气。审视当前经济，平稳健康运行的主基调依然牢固。从经济 增长看，前三季度国内生产总值（G ...

2025 年 12 月 02 日 固定收益研究团队 制造业景气水平小幅回升，市场预期仍保持乐观 ——2025 年 11 月 PMI 数据点评 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：国家统计局公布 2025 年 11 月采购经理指数运行情况，制造业 PMI为 49.2% （前值为 49.0%，下同），环比提升 0.2pct；非制造业 PMI 为 49.5%（50.1%）， 环比下降 0.6pct；综合 PMI 为 49.7%（50.0%），环比下降 0.3pct。 11 月 PMI 数据关注点 11 月制造业 PMI 为 49.2%（49.0%），环比提升 0.2pct，同比下降 1.1pct，制造业 景气水平小幅回升，生产活动较 10 月有所修复。 出口改善拉动生产修复，制造业景气水平小幅回升，但仍处收缩区间。制造业 整体景气度在国际局势缓和及政策支持下逐步企稳回升，但整体回升幅度不大， 且已连续 8 个月位于收缩区间。中美达成缓和协议后，11 月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI showed a marginal improvement with synchronized recovery in production and demand and accelerated destocking, but the asymmetric recovery of raw material and finished product prices may still restrict corporate profit repair, and the sustainability of external demand contribution remains to be verified. The decline in service - sector sentiment indicates that the resilience of domestic demand also needs to be observed. The bond market has adjusted, and the impact of PMI data is expected to be limited. It is recommended to allocate 10 - year Treasury bonds with a taxable coupon yield above 1.8% when there are adjustments [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing PMI - **Overall situation**: In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 pct from the previous month, still seasonally weak but with marginal improvement. Production, procurement, and import indices on the supply - side increased, and new order and backlog order indices on the demand - side rose. Inventory destocking accelerated, and some predictive indicators showed improved supply - demand relationships [5][9]. - **External demand contribution**: The new export order index rose 1.7 pct to 47.6%, and the new export order indices of four major manufacturing industries and large, medium, and small enterprises all increased. However, the asymmetric recovery of raw material and finished product prices may pressure corporate profit repair [9]. - **Enterprise size and industry differences**: Small and medium - sized enterprises' sentiment improved, especially small enterprises which rose 2 pct to a nearly 6 - month high of 49.1%, while large enterprises' sentiment declined 0.6 pct to 49.3%. High - tech manufacturing with a high proportion of small and medium - sized enterprises remained in expansion, while the sentiment of equipment and consumer goods manufacturing declined, and their production sides may be stronger than the demand sides [9]. Non - manufacturing PMI - **Overall situation**: The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5% in November 2025, down 0.6 pct from the previous month, the first time below the boom - bust line since 2023. The service - sector sentiment was dragged down by factors such as the fading holiday effect, while the construction industry's sentiment improved [5][9]. - **Sub - item structure**: The inventory and new order indices of non - manufacturing declined, while the new export order index rose. The sales price and input price indices increased for two consecutive months. In the service sector, the financial industry and some new - energy industries showed good performance. The construction industry's business activity index increased, possibly boosted by financial activities and policy support [9]. Investment Suggestion The bond market has adjusted, and the impact of PMI data is expected to be limited. It is recommended to allocate 10 - year Treasury bonds with a taxable coupon yield above 1.8% when there are adjustments [2][9].

谷喻（财经评论员、高级经济师） 根据国家统计局公布的11月份PMI数据，整体呈现制造业企稳回升、建筑业动能积聚、服务业短期调整 的阶段性图景。中国经济展现出在复杂环境中持续修复、结构不断优化的韧性特征，表明前期稳增长政 策成效渐显。同时，也为下一阶段实施精准宏观调控、激发消费潜能、培育新发展动能奠定了基础。 量。近期地方政府债务风险化解进程的提速，缓解了地方项目实施的财政约束，也对稳定整体投资预期 起到了积极作用。 再次，价格类指数普遍回升，反映出供需结构趋于优化，企业盈利环境正得到边际改善。11月份制造业 主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数均上升，这表明在需求端逐步恢复与企业生产活动回暖的共同 作用下，市场供需关系正朝着更为平衡的方向发展。这一趋势反映出前期对钢铁、建材等重点行业实施 的产能治理与结构优化政策显现出积极效果，有助于缓解部分行业过度竞争和"内卷"压力。价格传导机 制初步得到畅通，制造企业的成本压力有望通过产品定价得到一定程度的疏导，整体盈利空间有望迎来 边际修复。 展望未来，宏观政策预计将更加精准协同。对制造业特别是中小企业、高技术制造业的支持政策需保持 连续性和稳定性，以巩固复苏向好势头， ...