Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamental situation of the black building materials market remains weak, and the futures price may gradually return to the real - trading logic. Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the terminal demand repair rhythm and the cost - side support for the finished product price need to be focused on [3]. - After the "anti - involution" sentiment is released, the market capital divergence increases, and the price is expected to gradually move closer to the real fundamentals. It is not recommended that speculative funds participate excessively, while hedging funds can seize the opportunity according to their own situation [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3203 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.06%) from the previous trading day, with a registered warehouse receipt of 85034 tons and a main contract position of 1.760703 million lots, down 55323 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3401 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.324%), with a registered warehouse receipt of 57174 tons and a main contract position of 1.45476 million lots, up 20824 lots [2]. - **Market Situation**: The rebar speculative demand decreased significantly with the price decline, resulting in inventory accumulation; the hot - rolled coil demand increased slightly, the output rose rapidly, and the inventory increased slightly. The current inventory levels of rebar and hot - rolled coil are at the lowest in the past five years [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 783.00 yuan/ton, up 0.51% (+ 4.00), with a position change of - 9550 lots to 410,000 lots. The weighted position was 943,800 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 768 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 32.81 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.02% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to rise, the FMG shipment volume increased significantly, the Brazilian shipment volume decreased slightly, and the non - mainstream country shipment volume dropped to a low level this year. The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly, the port inventory decreased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased slightly [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position**: On August 1st, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 0.27% at 5962 yuan/ton, and the main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 0.25% at 5682 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Situation**: Last week, the prices of both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fluctuated widely. It is recommended that investment positions be mainly on the sidelines, and hedging positions can participate opportunistically. Fundamentally, both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are facing the problems of over - capacity, weakening demand, and potential cost reduction [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed at 8500 yuan/ton, down 2.97% (- 260), with a position change of - 18592 lots to 194340 lots. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2509) closed at 49200 yuan/ton, up 0.14% (+ 70), with a position change of - 16227 lots to 110762 lots [13][14]. - **Market Situation**: Industrial silicon still has problems of over - supply and insufficient effective demand. After the "anti - involution" sentiment fades, the price may weaken. Polysilicon prices are affected by industry capacity integration expectations and enterprise price - holding strategies, and the short - term price may fluctuate widely [13][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory**: The spot price of glass in Shahe decreased by 22 yuan to 1245 yuan, and the national floating glass inventory decreased by 3.87% month - on - month. The spot price of soda ash was 1240 yuan, with a slight increase in inventory [17][18]. - **Market Situation**: Glass prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the long term. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [17][18].

Core Insights - The article highlights the changes in the Hong Kong Stock Connect holdings, indicating significant increases and decreases in ownership percentages for various companies [1][2]. Group 1: Companies with Increased Holdings - Shandong Molong (00568) saw the largest increase in holdings, up by 7.40%, bringing its total to 61.14% [2]. - Changfei Fiber Optic Cable (06869) experienced a 3.04% increase, with a new holding percentage of 47.11% [2]. - Meizhong Jiahe (02453) had a 2.67% increase, resulting in a holding percentage of 27.92% [2]. - Over the last five trading days, Changfei Fiber Optic Cable (06869) led with a 14.30% increase, now at 47.11% [3]. - Yisou Technology (02550) followed with a 12.39% increase, reaching 58.26% [3]. Group 2: Companies with Decreased Holdings - Baiyunshan (00874) recorded the largest decrease in holdings, down by 0.86%, now at 60.69% [2]. - Huaneng International Power (00902) also decreased by 0.86%, with a holding percentage of 46.50% [2]. - Beijing Capital Machinery (00187) saw a reduction of 0.83%, bringing its total to 46.04% [2]. - In the last five trading days, Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical (00719) had the most significant decrease at 3.52%, now at 43.97% [3]. - Asymchem Laboratories (06855) decreased by 2.89%, with a holding percentage of 47.86% [3].

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Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [7] Core Viewpoints - The long-term investment value of the steel sector remains promising under the "anti-involution" theme, similar to the supply-side reform period from 2016 to 2018, where the sector's performance was volatile until the exit of outdated capacities in late 2016 [2][6] - In the short term, the market lacks clear anchors for trading, leading to expectations that the equity market will follow steel prices, which are influenced by upstream and downstream trading [2][6] - The valuation position of steel stocks is a key focus for the market, with companies like Hualing Steel, New Steel, and Fangda Special Steel appearing relatively undervalued [6][5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Recent tracking indicates insufficient downstream support, leading to a decline in steel prices. The apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 0.69% year-on-year and 2.47% month-on-month [4] - The average daily pig iron output of sample steel companies fell to 2.4071 million tons, down 1.52 million tons per day month-on-month [4] - Total steel inventory increased by 1.17% month-on-month, while year-on-year it decreased by 23.42% [4] Price Trends - Shanghai rebar prices dropped to 3,350 CNY/ton, down 100 CNY/ton month-on-month, while hot-rolled steel prices rose to 3,390 CNY/ton, down 130 CNY/ton month-on-month [5] - The estimated profit for rebar is 148 CNY/ton, with a lagging cost profit of 399 CNY/ton [5] Policy and Market Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue, with recent government meetings emphasizing the need to rectify disorderly competition and optimize capacity in key industries [6] - The report suggests that despite short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for the steel sector remains positive due to cost optimization and sustained policy support [6][2] - The report identifies four main investment lines: cost reduction due to new capacity, recovery of performance and valuation for low PB stocks, mergers and acquisitions under state-owned enterprise reforms, and focusing on quality processing and resource leaders [26][27][29]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of August 4, 2023, the total steel inventory across 135 warehouses in 38 cities in China reached 7.7267 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 216,400 tons, or 2.88% [1][2]. Inventory Breakdown - **Construction Steel Inventory**: Totaled 4.1124 million tons, up by 137,800 tons (+3.47%) from the previous week, covering 79 warehouses in 30 cities [1][2]. - **Hot Rolled Steel Inventory**: Reached 1.8618 million tons, increasing by 65,000 tons (+3.62%) compared to the last week, with 47 warehouses in 15 cities [1][2]. - **Medium and Heavy Plate Inventory**: Totaled 606,500 tons, showing a slight decrease of 500 tons (-0.08%) from the previous week, across 14 warehouses in 9 cities [1][2]. - **Cold Rolled and Coated Steel Inventory**: Stood at 1.1460 million tons, with an increase of 14,100 tons (+1.25%) from the previous week, covering 14 warehouses in 5 cities [1][2]. Weekly Inventory Changes - The overall inventory trend indicates a consistent increase in construction steel and hot rolled steel, while medium and heavy plate inventory experienced a minor decline [1][2].

截至2025年8月1日收盘，山东钢铁(600022)报收于1.53元，上涨0.66%，换手率0.61%，成交量65.73万 手，成交额1.0亿元。 董秘最新回复 投资者： 近两年不在分红了么？ 董秘： 感谢您对我公司的关注。公司自上市以来已累计分红34.74亿元。近年受行业周期性低谷、原料 价格高位运行及需求疲软等因素影响，公司经营业绩承压，累计未分配利润为负数，暂不具备分红条 件。公司始终坚持积极的分红政策，2024年，专门对公司章程进行了修订，将其中"公司最近三年以现 金方式累计分配的利润不少于最近三年实现的年均可分配利润的百分之三十"的分红条款修订为"公司原 则上每年进行一次现金分红，以现金方式分配的利润原则上不低于弥补亏损和提取盈余公积后所余税后 利润的百分之五十"。2025年以来，公司持续强化价值创造及算账经营，加速变革求生，预计上半年度 利润总额2.93亿元左右，同比增利约13.54亿元；归母净利润1271万元左右，实现扭亏为盈，同比增利约 9.81亿元；经营业绩大幅改善，持续向好。后续具备分红条件时，将严格按照规定进行分红，积极回报 股东。 投资者： 尊敬的公司管理层：公司在铁矿石采购中推行人民 ...

Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October 2025, emphasizing the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts[7] - A new childcare subsidy policy will provide 3,600 yuan per year for each child until the age of three, starting from January 1, 2025[17] Economic Performance - The construction sector shows signs of stabilization, with a slight decrease in funding availability for construction projects, while asphalt construction rates have increased[6] - New home sales in 30 cities have rebounded slightly but remain below last year's levels, while second-hand home sales have declined in nine cities[6] Market Trends - Upstream prices are showing mixed trends, with crude oil prices rising and coal prices remaining stable, while copper and rebar prices have decreased due to market adjustments[8] - Cement prices continue to decline, with a rising inventory-to-capacity ratio and reduced shipping rates[51] Consumer Behavior - Automobile sales are experiencing steady growth, although the year-on-year growth rate for wholesale and retail sales has decreased due to last year's high base[6] - Public transportation activity has slightly increased but remains above last year's levels, while flight execution rates have shown seasonal fluctuations[6] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected changes in domestic economic policies and global geopolitical conflicts, which could impact market stability[10]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese equity assets are expected to outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year due to strong policy expectations and favorable liquidity conditions in the Asia-Pacific emerging markets [22]. Group 1: Global Economic Impact - The average import tariff level in the U.S. has reached 15.6% this year, significantly higher than the 2.4% expected in 2024, which may elevate U.S. inflation and weaken corporate profitability [11]. - The U.S. tariff policy is likely to slow global trade flows, reduce investment and consumption growth, and reshape global supply chains, potentially leading to a "de-Americanization" and "multilateralization" of trade among non-U.S. economies [11]. Group 2: U.S. Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged as long as the U.S. economy and labor market remain robust, with market expectations for rate cuts cooling down [14]. - It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will cut rates four times by June next year, totaling 100 basis points [16]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to increase their allocation to non-U.S. assets, particularly European investment-grade bonds and stocks, which are expected to benefit from Germany's fiscal stimulus plan [20]. - A focus on Chinese A-shares and H-shares is recommended, as they are likely to attract international capital inflows due to policy support and improving fundamentals [20]. Group 4: Sector Focus in China - The market is expected to show a "high-low cut" characteristic, with significant interest in cyclical stocks driven by infrastructure policies and technology events [23]. - The technology sector, particularly AI-related stocks, is projected to remain a core focus, with recommendations to monitor semiconductor, optical module, and high-end PCB stocks [23].

证券研究报告 宏观 出口增长反弹,商品涨势有所降温 华泰研究 2025年8月03日|中国内地 国内周报 一周概览 居民暑期出行需求仍偏强,港口及物流指标显示 7 月出口维持较强韧性, 而建筑活动仍偏弱、部分受高温多雨天气影响,叠加 7 月政治局会议强调 重点行业产能治理,"反内卷"预期调整,上周螺纹钢/水泥等商品价格有 所回撤。此外,地产成交整体仍偏弱,政治局会议针对地产短期新增政策较 少。7月制造业 PMI 边际回落,或显示前期"反内卷"或抑制部分行业过度 生产,但对工业品价格形成抬升,价格指标企稳仍待需求侧政策加码。 高频经济活动跟踪 居民暑期出行景气度偏强. 港口及物流高频数据显示 7月出口或回升,建 筑活动减速,汽车消费增速回落,新房和二手房成交仍偏弱。出行及消费方 面,上周国际/国内航班数同比增加 1.2%/6.6%,百城拥堵指数同比上行 0.9%:7月 21-27 日乘用车销量同比回落 40.7%;工业生产方面,焦化高 炉开工率同比回升 1.1/1.2 个百分点,建筑钢材成交量同比回落 9.9%,水泥 开工率同比降幅走阔至 6.9 个百分点。出口方面,HDET 高频指标显示 7 月出口同比回升,高 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The global capital market continues to exhibit a complex and volatile trend as of July, with macroeconomic data, geopolitical situations, and monetary policies influencing the market outlook for August [1] - The average import tariff level in the U.S. has reached 15.6% this year, significantly higher than the 2.4% expected in 2024, which may elevate U.S. inflation and weaken corporate profitability [8][12] - The impact of U.S. tariff policies includes potential slowdowns in global trade flows, reduced investment and consumption growth, and a reshaping of global supply chains [8] Group 2: Trade Policies and Economic Impact - The trade agreements reached have prevented the implementation of higher tariffs, which is generally favorable for the market; however, the tariffs already in effect since April have led to a notable decline in U.S. imports and affected consumer confidence [8][11] - The tariffs have a more pronounced effect on industries such as automotive, steel, and aluminum, with significant declines in revenue and profitability for companies heavily exposed to the U.S. market [8][11] - The legal standing of Trump's tariff policies remains uncertain, pending a final ruling from the Supreme Court [9] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates in July, with expectations of potential rate cuts in September or October, and a total of four cuts anticipated by June next year, amounting to 100 basis points [11][13] - High tariffs may constrain the Fed's ability to lower rates, as they could lead to increased inflation and weakened consumer and investment activity in the U.S. [12] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The outlook for gold prices is positive, with a forecast of $3,700 per ounce by June 2026, driven by ongoing geopolitical risks and central banks increasing gold reserves [14] - Investors are advised to increase allocations to non-U.S. assets, particularly European investment-grade bonds and stocks, which are expected to benefit from Germany's fiscal stimulus [18] - Chinese equity assets are projected to outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year due to strong policy expectations and improved fundamentals [20] Group 5: Sector Focus - The market is expected to show a "high-low cut" characteristic, with significant interest in cyclical stocks driven by infrastructure policies and technological advancements [21] - The AI sector is anticipated to remain a core focus, with recommendations to pay attention to semiconductor, optical module, and high-end PCB stocks [21] - For low-risk investors, there are opportunities in undervalued stocks with cash value and liquidation reassessment potential, particularly in sectors that have lagged since last year [22]