投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 3 月 16 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 现实格局弱稳，钢矿延续震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.03%日跌幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应重回高位，需求季节性好转，供需双增局面下基本面改善有 限，钢价仍易承压，相对利好则是成本支撑与商品偏暖情绪，预计螺纹 延续震荡企稳态势，关注需求表现情况。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 一 产业动态 （1）国家统计局：1-2 月全国房地产开发投资同比下降 11.1% 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.03%日涨幅 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the supply of sugar continues to increase as the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in Thailand have turned from decline to increase, and the sugar content in sugarcane and sugar production rate continue to rise. However, due to significant disturbances in the energy market, the raw sugar price may move upwards. In the domestic market, as of now in the 25/26 sugar - making season, 8 sugar mills in Guangxi have completed the sugar - making process, 50 fewer than the same period last year, and the first peak of sugar - making completion may come this week. Also, Zhengzhou sugar prices are boosted by the external market, with the price center continuing to rise. Later, attention should be paid to the impact of the macro - environment on the market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5472 yuan/ton with a change of 25, and the main contract position volume is 418,200 hands with a change of 2015. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 16,342, and the net long position volume of the top 20 futures positions is - 120,011 hands with a change of 2956. The total forecast of effective warehouse receipts is 0 with a change of - 684 [2] Spot Market - The estimated import - processed price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4083 yuan/ton with a change of 15, and that of Thai sugar is 4011 yuan/ton with a change of 32. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5174 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 5080 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5335 yuan/ton with no change, and in Nanning, Guangxi is 5460 yuan/ton with a change of - 10. The spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5480 yuan/ton with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares with a change of 60, and the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares with a change of 5.24. The total export volume of Brazilian sugar is 222.97 million tons with a change of - 7. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is - 16 yuan/ton, and outside the quota (50% tariff) is 1405 yuan/ton. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 242 yuan/ton with a change of - 12 [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of sugar is 58 million tons with a change of 14, and the cumulative import volume is 492 million tons. The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 155.06 million tons with a change of 66.58, and in Yunnan is 25.06 million tons. The cumulative production volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 402.9 million tons with a change of 208.71, and in Yunnan is 59.18 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production volume of refined sugar is 228.74 million tons, and that of soft drinks is 1342.1 million tons with a change of 296.4 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 13.51% with a change of 0.51, and that of at - the - money put options is 13.5% with a change of 0.51. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 8.12% with a change of 0.11, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.79% with a change of 0.06 [2] Industry News - The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) predicts that Brazil's sugar - cane planting area in 2026 will be 9.373731 million hectares, a 1.3% decrease from last month's forecast and a 2.0% decrease from last year. The estimated sugar - cane output is 700.3801 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from last month's forecast and a 0.4% decrease from last year. As of March 11, 2025/26 sugar - making season in Thailand, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume is 88.3668 million tons, a 0.48% year - on - year increase; the sugar output is 9.7927 million tons, a 2.98% year - on - year increase; the sugar content in sugar - cane is 12.80%, a 0.22 percentage - point increase from the same period last year; and the sugar production rate is 111.08%, a 0.269 percentage - point increase [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report Corn - The USDA has raised the global corn inventory forecast to 2.9275 billion tons, higher than last month's forecast and analysts' expectations. However, the intensifying conflict between the US and Iran has led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, boosting freight rates and international corn market prices. The increase in import prices also has a positive impact on the domestic market. In the domestic market, the temperature in the Northeast production area has risen, increasing the storage pressure of damp grain, and the grass - root grain sources have been released. But the remaining grain inventory in the market is low, and the grain rights are gradually transferred to the trading sector. The purchasing enthusiasm of the China Grain Reserves Corporation has increased, and some traders sell goods according to the market. The scope of price increases in the deep - processing industry has narrowed. The price difference between wheat and corn has reached around 100 yuan/ton, and some feed enterprises have started to purchase wheat. The policy adjustment of the lowest - price wheat auction has increased the投放 volume from 300,000 tons to 500,000 tons and expanded the participation scope, which may increase the demand for wheat as a feed substitute and weaken the later - stage demand for corn. The corn futures price fluctuates at a high level, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. Corn Starch - As the production of corn starch enterprises gradually recovers, the operating rate of the corn starch industry has increased, and the supply - side pressure has increased. However, the increase in the operating rate is relatively slow, the downstream demand has improved, the downstream提货 volume has increased, and the industry inventory has slightly decreased. As of March 11, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.209 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a week - on - week decline of 0.82%, a month - on - month increase of 0.92%, and a year - on - year decline of 11.17%. Supported by the strong performance of corn, the starch market has been oscillating strongly recently [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2,379 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; corn futures closing price (active contract): 2,743 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton; corn monthly spread (5 - 9): 14 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (5 - 7): - 5 yuan/ton; corn futures open interest (active contract): 1,378,887 lots, a decrease of 26,284 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract): 243,412 lots, a decrease of 1,880 lots; net long positions of the top 20 futures positions in corn: - 267,241 lots; net long positions of the top 20 futures positions in corn starch: - 22,196 lots, a decrease of 3,254 lots; registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn: 78,463 lots; registered warehouse receipts of corn starch: 6,560 lots; CS - C spread of the main contract: 341 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - Disk Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract): 467 cents/bushel, an increase of 5 cents/bushel; total CBOT corn positions (weekly): 1,723,308 contracts, an increase of 105,847 contracts; non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn: 167,722 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Average spot price of corn: 2,448.63 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.77 yuan/ton; ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun: 2,830 yuan/ton; ex - factory price of corn starch in Weifang: 3,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; ex - factory price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang: 3,020 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; CIF price of imported corn: 2,090.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.35 yuan/ton; international freight of imported corn: 0 US dollars/ton; basis of the main corn contract: 8.77 yuan/ton; basis of the main corn starch contract: 58 yuan/ton; price difference between Shandong starch and corn (weekly): 540 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; price difference between wheat and corn starch (weekly): 737 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder: - 69 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown area of corn in the US: 36.93 million hectares, an increase of 0.49 million hectares; forecasted corn output in the US: 432.34 million tons; forecasted sown area of corn in Brazil: 22.6 million hectares; forecasted corn output in Brazil: 131 million tons; forecasted sown area of corn in Argentina: 7.5 million hectares; forecasted corn output in Argentina: 53 million tons; forecasted sown area of corn in China: 44.96 million hectares, an increase of 0.66 million hectares; forecasted corn output in China: 301.24 million tons; forecasted corn output in Ukraine: 29 million tons; corn inventory in southern ports (weekly): 69.6 million tons, a decrease of 19.6 million tons; deep - processing corn inventory (weekly): 337.7 million tons, a decrease of 6 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory in northern ports (weekly): 219 million tons, an increase of 19 million tons; weekly inventory of starch enterprises (weekly): 120.9 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons; monthly import volume of corn: 80 million tons, an increase of 24 million tons; monthly export volume of corn starch: 16,740 tons, a decrease of 200 tons; monthly output of feed: 3,008.6 million tons, an increase of 30.7 million tons; sample feed corn inventory days (weekly): 30 days, a decrease of 5 days [2]. Downstream Situation - Corn starch processing profit in Shandong: - 23 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; corn starch processing profit in Hebei: 96 yuan/ton; corn starch processing profit in Jilin: - 16 yuan/ton; deep - processing corn consumption (weekly): 126.86 million tons, an increase of 4.91 million tons; alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly): 55.61%, an increase of 1.53%; starch enterprise operating rate (weekly): 55.73%, an increase of 1.21% [2]. Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn: 7.59%, an increase of 0.38%; 60 - day historical volatility of corn: 7.23%, an increase of 0.08%; implied volatility of at - the - money call options on corn: 15.67%, an increase of 0.22%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options on corn: 15.67%, an increase of 0.21% [2]. Industry News - The Brazilian National Supply Company (CONAB) released the sixth survey of this year, predicting that the total corn output in Brazil in the 2025/26 season will reach 138.27 million tons, lower than last month's forecast of 138.45 million tons and a 2.0% decrease from last year (last month's forecast was a 1.9% decrease). - The Indonesian Biofuel Producers Association (APROBI) stated that the road test of 50% palm - based biodiesel blend fuel (B50) will not end ahead of schedule. - The USDA raised the global corn inventory forecast to 2.9275 billion tons, higher than last month's forecast of 2.8898 billion tons and analysts' previous expectations of 2.8919 billion tons [2]. Key Points to Watch - Pay attention to mysteel's weekly corn consumption, starch enterprise operating rate, and inventory on Thursday and Friday [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol inventory has entered a destocking channel as the supply has significantly decreased, with a large reduction in port inventory and good提货 supported by downstream demand along the Yangtze River, but fewer imported cargoes arriving at ports. Short - term foreign vessel arrivals are expected to remain at a low level. The demand side should focus on the changes in the export - turning expectation and the downstream demand in coastal areas. It is expected that the port methanol inventory may continue to decline this week. The short - term industry operation is expected to remain stable. Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, the short - term methanol price is expected to fluctuate sharply, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2837 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 32 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol is 126 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton. The position of the main methanol contract is 586,749 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 2,544 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 14,254 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 7,617 lots. The number of warehouse receipts for methanol is 11,317, with a week - on - week decrease of 196 [3]. 2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2820 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2170 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 42.5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 630 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 92.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 17 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton. The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 351 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 510 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15 US dollars/ton. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 389 euros/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 159 US dollars/ton, with no change [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.13 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.12 US dollars [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 97.28 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 9.56 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 34 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.51 tons. The methanol import profit is - 112.27 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 113.39 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 1.734 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 316,400 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 523,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 29,300 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 90.15%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.5% [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 37.6%, with a week - on - week increase of 8.88%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 4.13%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.28%; the acetic acid operating rate is 85.4%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.29%; the MTBE operating rate is 68.94%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.22%; the olefin operating rate is 84.08%, with no change. The methanol - to - olefin on - paper profit is - 454 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 158 yuan/ton [3]. 6. Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 70.82%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.78%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 53.2%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.06%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 71.89%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.14%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 71.89%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.14% [3]. 7. Industry News - As of March 11, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 523,100 tons, a decrease of 29,300 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 5.30%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 265,300 tons, a decrease of 29,800 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 10.10%. As of March 11, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.3128 million tons, a decrease of 130,700 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 95,600 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 35,100 tons. The methanol port inventory decreased significantly this week, and only 91,500 tons of foreign vessels were unloaded during the period. Recently, the production capacity loss caused by domestic methanol maintenance and production reduction is more than the production output of the restored production capacity, and the overall output has decreased. The inland enterprises destocked last week. As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 82.50%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.82%. The second - phase plant of Yanchang Yulin Zhongmei had a short - term shutdown, and the operation of the MTO industry decreased [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The apple market maintains a differentiated pattern with the west being strong and the east being stable. High - quality goods trade better than medium and low - grade goods. The supply of high - quality goods in areas like Shaanxi Luochuan is in short - term shortage. The inventory removal speed has accelerated. It is expected that the apple futures price will still have room to rise after a short - term adjustment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 10,064 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 66. The main contract position volume is 94,826 hands, with a week - on - week decrease of 4,425. The net long position volume of the top 20 futures holders is 2,115 hands, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,425 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin. The spot price of apples in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75) is 2.2 yuan/jin, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.2. The spot price of apples in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commodity) is 4.25 yuan/jin, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05. The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged above 80 first - grade) is 3.7 yuan/jin, with no change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons. The national apple orchard area is 1,955.77 thousand hectares, with a year - on - year decrease of 19.58. The weekly fruit wholesale price of apples is 9.51 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.09. The average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.52 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15. The national apple cold - storage total inventory is 499.72 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 27.81. The storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 0.4, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02. The storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.39, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.03. The monthly apple export quantity is 160,000 tons, with an increase of 40,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly year - on - year export amount of apples is 30.7%, with an increase of 14.5. The monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,775,355 million US dollars, with an increase of 657,409 million US dollars. The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples is 0.35 yuan/jin, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly fruit wholesale price of pears is 6.67 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02. The weekly fruit wholesale price of bananas is 6.52 yuan/kg, with no change. The weekly fruit wholesale price of watermelons is 6.75 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.13. The early - morning average daily arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 12.8 vehicles, with an increase of 3.2. The early - morning average daily arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 18.4 vehicles, with an increase of 6. The early - morning average daily arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 24 vehicles, with an increase of 5.6 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 33.96%, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.02. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 33.96%, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.08 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side has a relatively high inventory, and the elimination of old laying hens is slow, resulting in sufficient overall supply. However, with schools fully reopened and factories resuming work, the pre - Qingming Festival stocking has been launched in advance, significantly boosting the off - season demand. The feed cost has increased, and the breeding side is reluctant to sell and tries to hold up prices, leading to a rebound in spot prices. This further weakens the expectation of a decline in laying hen inventory. From a market perspective, the egg market remains volatile, and short - term participation is recommended [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active contract for eggs is 3439 yuan per 500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 6. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for eggs are 955 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 286. The month - to - month spread (5 - 9) of egg futures is - 421 yuan per 500 kilograms, with a week - on - week decrease of 5. The futures trading volume of the active contract for eggs is 170,711 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 2452. The registered warehouse receipt volume for eggs is 0 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 7 [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of eggs is 3.22 yuan per catty, with a week - on - week increase of 0.09. The basis (spot - futures) is - 221 yuan per 500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 85 [2] Upstream Situation - The laying hen inventory index nationwide is 109.28 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month decrease of 2.75. The eliminated laying hen index nationwide is 124.98 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month increase of 23.8. The average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 3.5 yuan per chick, with no change. The new chick index nationwide is 71.99 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month decrease of 21.63. The average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.84 yuan per kilogram, with a week - on - week increase of 0.04. The breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.33 yuan per hen, with a week - on - week increase of 0.02. The average price of eliminated hens in the main production areas is 10.4 yuan per kilogram, with a week - on - week increase of 0.52. The age of eliminated hens nationwide is 500 days, with no change [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 16.18 yuan per kilogram, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01. The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.89 yuan per kilogram, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.05. The average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.17 yuan per kilogram, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.17. The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.17 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1. The weekly inventory in the production link is 1.07 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.15. The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 14,898.72 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,853.2 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 6,864 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 440 tons [2] Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 6.34 yuan per kilogram, with a day - on - day increase of 0.20. The average price of eggs in Hebei is 5.97 yuan per kilogram, with a day - on - day increase of 0.09. The average price of eggs in Guangdong is 7.07 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day. The average price of eggs in Beijing is 6.40 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the contract is in a strong and volatile state with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The fundamentals show that the supply is relatively abundant while the demand is stable. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For Shanghai aluminum, the contract is in a volatile state with increasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The fundamentals indicate stable supply and slightly warming demand. It is suggested to trade with a light position by going long on dips and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum, the contract is in a volatile state with decreasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The fundamentals suggest increasing supply and flat demand. It is advisable to trade with a light position by going long on dips and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 25,170 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,965 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 3,439 US dollars/ton, down 94 US dollars; the closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 23,830 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan [2]. - **Spreads**: The spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai aluminum is - 230 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; that of alumina is - 95 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; that of cast aluminum alloy is - 115 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 309,830 lots, up 117,111 lots; that of the alumina main contract is 267,270 lots, down 12,490 lots; that of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 5,383 lots, down 296 lots [2]. - **Inventories**: The LME aluminum cancelled warrants are 172,500 tons, unchanged; the total alumina inventory is 430,237 tons, up 27,469 tons; the LME aluminum inventory is 445,300 tons, down 2,000 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory on the SHFE is 416,425 tons, up 21,927 tons; the cast aluminum alloy inventory on the SHFE is 62,731 tons, down 4,121 tons [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum is - 61,931 lots, up 1,726 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.32, up 0.25; the registered warrants of cast aluminum alloy on the SHFE are 53,440 tons, down 871 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 24,790 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,655 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in the country is 25,100 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum is 25,100 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 1,270 yuan/ton, down 275 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 380 yuan/ton, down 540 yuan; the basis of alumina is - 310 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [2]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME aluminum premium/discount is 30.83 US dollars/ton, down 3.02 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The national alumina production is 801.08 tons, down 12.72 tons; the national alumina capacity utilization rate is 83%, down 1%; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 731.29 tons, up 25.33 tons; the alumina supply - demand balance is 28.9 tons, up 2.32 tons; the national alumina export volume is 21 tons, up 4 tons; the national alumina import volume is 22.78 tons, down 0.46 tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal waste is 19,000 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal waste is 18,400 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan; the Chinese import volume of aluminum scrap and waste is 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons; the Chinese export volume of aluminum scrap and waste is 70.8 tons, down 0.73 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The import volume of primary aluminum is 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum is 37,575.3 tons, down 15,472.39 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,540.2 tons, unchanged; the electrolytic aluminum operating rate is 98.93%, up 0.04% [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The aluminum product production is 613.56 tons, up 20.46 tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 42.96 tons, down 11.04 tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 27.08 tons, down 39.41 tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.55 tons, down 0.51 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The automobile production is 341.15 vehicles, down 10.75 vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate**: The national real estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.44 [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The aluminum alloy production is 182.5 tons, unchanged; the total built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 21.77%, down 0.06%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 31.46%, down 0.54%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum main contract is 23.72%, down 0.0286; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.63, up 0.0093 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From January to February this year, high - frequency data such as consumption and investment rebounded. Commodity consumption and service consumption increased by 5.7% and 1.1% year - on - year respectively. Some investment physical workload indicators such as the construction machinery operating rate improved significantly, and the number of capital investment events in cutting - edge fields increased significantly [2]. - The average retail price of passenger cars in 2021 was 165,000 yuan, rising to 184,000 yuan in 2024, dropping to 170,000 yuan in 2025, and rising to 180,000 yuan in February 2026 [2]. - The "14th Five - Year Plan" outline was recently released, proposing to give full play to the role of special additional deduction policies and increase the deduction of individual income tax [2]. - From January to February, the fixed - asset investment of the State Grid Corporation totaled 75.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 80.6% [2]. - The US core PCE in January increased by 3.1% year - on - year, the highest level since March 2024, and the month - on - month increase remained at 0.4%. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the next monetary policy meeting, and rising inflation may delay the time window for resuming interest rate cuts [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market continued its weak and volatile trend today. The main contract of Shanghai Gold 2606 fell 2.04% to 1118.34 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver 2606 fell 6.34% to 20301 yuan/kilogram. The current market is still repeatedly gaming around two main lines. The continuous escalation of the Middle East situation and the risk in the Strait of Hormuz have not subsided, and international oil prices have remained above $100, intensifying market concerns about the recurrence of US inflation, which has further postponed the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and restricted the further unilateral upward movement of gold and silver. The US economy shows characteristics of stagflation with "slowing growth but persistent inflation". The market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in March and postpone the first interest rate cut this year to around September. The current real interest rates and policy expectations still suppress precious metals. The current correction of gold prices may be due to short - term profit - taking by long positions and capital rebalancing and position adjustment in the high - price range. If the US - Iran situation remains tense, the safe - haven premium will support the gold price center. In February, global physical gold ETFs had net inflows for the ninth consecutive month, indicating that institutional allocation funds are still resilient. Precious metals still have certain value for bargain - hunting allocation. It is recommended to focus on short - term range - bound trading and long - term bargain - hunting layout [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai Gold contract decreased by 14.7 yuan/gram, and the closing price of the main Shanghai Silver contract was 20301 yuan/kilogram with a decrease of 622 yuan/kilogram. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold decreased by 8146 hands, while those of Shanghai Silver increased by 48 hands to 94,528 hands. The trading volume of the main Shanghai Gold contract increased by 35929 hands, and that of the main Shanghai Silver contract was 723,961 hands with an increase of 204003 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold remained unchanged, and that of Shanghai Silver increased by 4142 kilograms to 330,708 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased by 16.48 yuan, and the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 20,015 yuan with a decrease of 1589 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai Gold contract decreased by 1.82 yuan/gram, and the basis of the main Shanghai Silver contract decreased by 967 yuan/gram to - 286 yuan/gram [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 4.29 tons, and the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15,460.18 tons with a decrease of 78.88 tons. The non - commercial net long positions of gold in CFTC increased by 2987 contracts, and those of silver increased by 1240 contracts to 163132 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold decreased by 0.19 tons, and the total annual supply of silver increased by 482 tons to 32,056 tons. The total quarterly demand for gold increased by 79.57 tons, and the total annual demand for silver decreased by 491 tons to 35,716 tons [2] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index increased by 0.76 to 100.50, and the 10 - year US Treasury real yield increased by 0.03 to 1.92. The VIX volatility index decreased by 0.10, and the CBOE gold volatility index increased by 1.22 to 32.31. The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price increased by 0.01, and the gold - silver ratio increased by 1.33 to 60.27 [2] 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump said that Iran has expressed willingness to negotiate a cease - fire, but the current conditions are "not good enough", so the US will not reach an agreement to end the war with Iran for the time being. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said that Iran has never requested a cease - fire and will continue to defend until Trump realizes it is an "illegal and unwinnable war". The US core PCE in January increased by 3.1% year - on - year, the highest level since March 2024, and the month - on - month increase remained at 0.4%, in line with market expectations. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the next monetary policy meeting, and if inflation pressure continues to rise, it may further postpone the time window for resuming interest rate cuts. The revised data released by the US Department of Commerce showed that the annualized quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the fourth quarter of last year was 0.7%, significantly lower than the initial value of 1.4%. In addition, the initial value of the month - on - month change in durable goods orders in the US in January was flat, far lower than the market expectation of a 1.1% increase. The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in March dropped from 56.6 in February to 55.5, the lowest in three months. Consumers expect prices to rise by 3.4% in the next year, lower than the expected 3.7%. The number of job openings in the US JOLTS in January increased by 396,000 to 6.946 million, higher than the expected 6.75 million, indicating an improvement in the labor market [2] 3.6 Key Points of Attention - March 16, 20:30, US March New York Fed Manufacturing Index; March 16, 21:15, US February Industrial Production Monthly Rate; March 17, 22:00, US February Conference Board Leading Index; March 18, 18:00, Eurozone February CPI Monthly and Annual Rates; March 18, 20:30, US February PPI Monthly and Annual Rates; March 18, 22:00, US February Factory Orders Monthly Rate [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - After the closing of the Two Sessions, the market has gradually realized the policy benefits brought by the National Two Sessions, and the subsequent market will shift to the fact - verification stage [2] - The domestic economic fundamentals in February were strong, and the macro - fundamentals remained stable, providing support for the stock market. Although external shocks had a short - term impact on the domestic market, after the negative impact of rising oil prices was digested, the A - share market was still expected to continue the slow - bull market [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - IF main contract (2603) latest price was 4662.8, up 3.0; IF sub - main contract (2606) latest price was 4589.0, up 1.6 [2] - IH main contract (2603) latest price was 2952.0, down 7.6; IH sub - main contract (2606) latest price was 2942.2, down 6.0 [2] - IC main contract (2603) latest price was 8178.4, down 51.4; IC sub - main contract (2606) latest price was 8003.4, down 45.0 [2] - IM main contract (2603) latest price was 8187.0, down 17.0; IM sub - main contract (2606) latest price was 7952.8, down 14.0 [2] - IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1710.8, up 9.8; IC - IF current - month contract spread was 3515.6, down 40.2 [2] - IM - IC current - month contract spread was 8.6, up 35.4; IC - IH current - month contract spread was 5226.4, down 30.4 [2] - IM - IF current - month contract spread was 3524.2, down 4.8; IM - IH current - month contract spread was 5235.0, up 5.0 [2] - IF quarterly - current - month was - 73.8, up 0.6; IF next - quarter - current - month was - 152.8, down 3.2 [2] - IH quarterly - current - month was - 9.8, up 1.4; IH next - quarter - current - month was - 46, up 4.4 [2] - IC quarterly - current - month was - 175.0, up 8.0; IC next - quarter - current - month was - 339.6, up 10.8 [2] - IM quarterly - current - month was - 234.2, up 1.6; IM next - quarter - current - month was - 444.2, down 3.2 [2] 3.2 Futures Position - IF top 20 net position was 29,362.00, down 954.0; IH top 20 net position was 20,657.00, up 920.0 [2] - IC top 20 net position was 27,819.00, up 1844.0; IM top 20 net position was 56,018.00, up 624.0 [2] 3.3 Spot Price - CSI 300 was 4671.56, up 2.4; IF main contract basis was - 8.8, up 2.4 [2] - SSE 50 was 2,954.1, down 2.8; IH main contract basis was - 2.1, down 2.2 [2] - CSI 500 was 8,185.2, down 54.7; IC main contract basis was - 6.8, up 19.3 [2] - CSI 1000 was 8,211.4, down 2.9; IM main contract basis was - 24.4, up 2.9 [2] 3.4 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) was 23,399.03, down 773.72; margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 26,517.11, down 129.47 [2] - Northbound trading total (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 2952.45, down 9.33; reverse repurchase (maturity volume, operation volume, billion yuan) was - 6485.0, up 6373.0 [2] - Main - force funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) were - 774.10 and - 430.85; MLF (roll - over volume, net injection, billion yuan) had no data [2] - Rising stock ratio (daily, %) was 51.48, up 24.09; Shibor (daily, %) was 1.320, down 0.001 [2] - IO at - the - money call option closing price (2603) was 40.60, down 7.00; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility (%) was 13.83, down 2.55 [2] - IO at - the - money put option closing price (2603) was 26.40, down 13.60; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility (%) was 13.82, down 2.56 [2] - CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility (%) was 13.35, down 0.17; trading volume PCR (%) was 75.76, up 12.81 [2] - Position PCR (%) was 71.57, up 0.02 [2] 3.5 Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A - shares were 5.00, up 1.60; technical aspect was 5.20, up 2.50 [2] - Capital aspect: from January to February, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year - on - year. In February, it increased by 0.83% month - on - month [2] - From January to February, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 86079 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. From January to February, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 52721 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year. In February, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 0.39% month - on - month [2] - From January to February, the national real estate development investment was 9612 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. From January to February, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises decreased by 11.7% year - on - year, the newly started floor area decreased by 23.1%, and the completed floor area decreased by 27.9%. From January to February, the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 13.5% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 20.2% [2] 3.6 Industry News - The central bank announced that in the first two months of this year, RMB loans increased by 5.61 trillion yuan; the increment of social financing scale was 9.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 3162 billion yuan year - on - year. At the end of February, M2 increased by 9% year - on - year, and the stock of social financing scale increased by 8.2% year - on - year [2] - US President Trump said that Iran had expressed its willingness to negotiate a cease - fire, but the current conditions were "not good enough", so the US would not reach an agreement to end the war with Iran for the time being. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said that Iran had never requested a cease - fire and would continue to defend until President Trump recognized it as an "illegal and unwinnable war" [2] - A - share major indices closed with mixed results, with the three major indices showing differentiation. The Shenzhen market was stronger than the Shanghai market. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.19%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.41%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased slightly. Industry sectors rose and fell mixed, with the steel and non - ferrous metal sectors weakening significantly, and the food and beverage sector leading the gains [2] - Overseas, the conflict between the US and Iran continued, and the latest statements of both sides were tough, which pushed up the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil. On March 16, during the Asian trading session, Brent crude oil reached $105 and fluctuated repeatedly [2] - Domestically, in terms of economic fundamentals, from January to February 2026, the added value of domestic industrial enterprises above designated size, fixed - asset investment, social retail sales, imports and exports, and inflation data all rebounded significantly compared with the previous values, only the real - estate demand side remained weak, and the national economy in 2026 had a good start [2] - In terms of financial data, the growth rate of M2 in February was flat compared with the previous value, the growth rate of M1 accelerated significantly, the gap between M1 and M2 further narrowed, and the activation degree of funds increased. In addition, the gap between household deposits and M2 increased, indicating that the pace of household deposits flowing into the stock market slowed down, but since the gap was still in the negative range, it showed that the transfer of household deposits continued [2] 3.7 Key Concerns - On March 18 at 20:30, the US February PPI and core PPI data will be released [3] - On March 19 at 2:00, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest - rate decision [3] - On March 19 at 20:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest - rate decision [3] - On March 19 at 21:15, the European Central Bank will announce its interest - rate decision [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The cost support for steel prices has strengthened, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1成材 (Finished Products) - **Supply**: The operating rate of electric furnaces has significantly increased. The weekly output of rebar from major steel mills nationwide was 1.953 million tons (+219,900 tons), and the weekly output of hot-rolled coils was 2.9526 million tons (-58,500 tons) [5]. - **Demand**: Steel demand has rebounded. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 1.7681 million tons (+785,800 tons), and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils was 1.9536 million tons (+137,900 tons) [5]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory continued to accumulate, but the growth rate slowed down, while hot-rolled coil inventory remained at a high level. The total rebar inventory was 8.9417 million tons (+184,900 tons), the social inventory was 6.5455 million tons (+168,000 tons), and the steel mill inventory was 2.3962 million tons (+16,900 tons). The total hot-rolled coil inventory was 4.7159 million tons (-1,000 tons), the social inventory was 3.8231 million tons (+7,000 tons), and the steel mill inventory was 892,800 tons (-8,000 tons) [5]. - **Basis**: As of March 13, the basis of the rebar main contract was 108 yuan/ton (+6 yuan/ton), and the basis of the hot-rolled coil main contract was -25 yuan/ton (-25 yuan/ton) [5]. - **Summary**: The profitability rate of steel mills was 41.13%, a 3.03% increase from the previous week, and at a low level compared to the same period last year. The molten iron output was 2.212 million tons, a decrease of 63,900 tons from the previous week. The blast furnace operating rate was 78.34%, a 0.63% increase from the previous week, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 82.29%, a 2.4% decrease from the previous week. The electric furnace operating rate was 57.34%, a 32.63% increase from the previous week, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 50.44%, a 29.73% increase from the previous week. Electric furnaces and blast furnaces have resumed production, with a significant increase in the electric furnace operating rate and an increase in short-process production. Rebar production has increased significantly, and it is expected to continue to rise. Demand continues to recover but remains at a low level. The resumption rate of downstream construction sites and the capital availability rate have increased compared to the previous week. As of March 11 (the 23rd day of the first lunar month), the resumption rate of 10,692 construction sites nationwide was 42.5%, a 19-percentage-point increase from the previous week and a 5.2-percentage-point decrease compared to the same period last year. The capital availability rate was 42.8%, a 7.4-percentage-point increase from the previous week and a 0.8-percentage-point decrease compared to the same period last year. Inventory continues to grow, but the growth rate has narrowed, and it is at a high level compared to the same period last year. Hot-rolled coil production has decreased and is at a low level compared to the same period last year. Demand has rebounded, and daily trading volume has increased significantly. Inventory is at a high level, with a slight decrease from the previous week, showing an inflection point. Steel exports are under pressure, with a cumulative export of 15.59 million tons from January to February, an 8% decrease compared to the same period last year [5]. 3.2螺纹热卷主要地区现货价格 (Spot Prices of Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils in Major Regions) As of March 13, the average spot price of rebar HRB400E 20MM in major cities nationwide was 3,339 yuan/ton, a 39-yuan/ton increase from the previous week. The average spot price of hot-rolled coils 4.75MM nationwide was 3,307 yuan/ton, a 42-yuan/ton increase from the previous week [8]. 3.3原料 (Raw Materials) - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke was 1,470 yuan/ton, the price of main coking coal in Luliang was 1,483 yuan/ton, and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 798 yuan/ton. The price of 61.5% PB powder increased by 34 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, while the prices of quasi-primary metallurgical coke and main coking coal remained unchanged [13]. - **Molten Iron Output and Electric Furnace Operating Rate**: Molten iron output has significantly decreased, while the electric furnace operating rate continues to increase [15]. 3.4钢厂盈利率 (Profitability Rate of Steel Mills) The profitability rate of steel mills has increased [20]. 3.5唐山高炉开工率 (Tangshan Blast Furnace Operating Rate) As of March 6, the Tangshan blast furnace operating rate was 92.48%, an 8.27% increase from the previous week [25]. 3.6螺纹产量 (Rebar Production) As of March 13, rebar production increased by 219,900 tons compared to the previous week. In terms of process, long-process production increased by 46,700 tons, and short-process production increased by 173,200 tons [32]. 3.7热卷产量 (Hot-Rolled Coil Production) Hot-rolled coil production decreased by 58,500 tons compared to the previous week [31]. 3.8需求 (Demand) - **Rebar Demand**: As of March 13, the weekly average trading volume of rebar was 97,400 tons, and trading volume remained at a low level [40]. - **Hot-Rolled Coil Demand**: As of March 13, the weekly average trading volume of hot-rolled coils was 51,700 tons. The downstream cold-rolled production was 882,700 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons from the previous week, but at a high level compared to the same period last year [45]. 3.9主要钢材品种库存 (Inventory of Major Steel Products) As of March 13, the Tangshan billet inventory was 654,000 tons, a 57,000-ton increase from the previous week. The inventory of major steel products was 14.2294 million tons, a 202,000-ton increase from the previous week [48]. 3.10钢材出口 (Steel Exports) According to customs data, steel exports in December were 1.13 million tons, a 132,000-ton increase from the previous month. From January to December, the cumulative steel exports were 119 million tons, a 7.5% increase compared to the same period last year. Hot-rolled coil exports in December were 180,480 tons [58]. 3.11汽车产销 (Automobile Production and Sales) According to Steel Union data, automobile production in February was 1.672 million vehicles, a decrease of 777,900 vehicles from the previous month. Automobile sales were 1.805 million tons, a decrease of 541,500 tons from the previous month. New energy vehicle production in February was 694,000 vehicles, a decrease of 347,000 vehicles from the previous month. New energy vehicle sales were 765,000 tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons from the previous month [62]. 3.12房地产数据 (Real Estate Data) From January to February, national real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 6.1 percentage points. Specifically, from January to February, the cumulative new housing construction area was 50.84 million square meters, a 23.1% decrease year-on-year. The housing completion area was 63.2 million square meters, a 27.9% decrease year-on-year. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 92.93 million square meters, a 13.5% decrease year-on-year. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 20.2% year-on-year, with a decline of 7.6%. The cumulative capital available to development enterprises was 1.3 trillion yuan, a 16.5% decrease year-on-year [66].