投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 n 资产观点：国内权益市场的政策预期和额外流动性依然可以提供上⾏的 ⽀撑。国债整体中性，短端机会好于⻓端，但赔率有限。贵⾦属中的⻩⾦ 维持多头标配，⽩银暂时观望。有⾊⾦属在产业逻辑⽀撑下仍然向好，但 短期内市场挤压拥挤交易泡沫，待市场波动率降低同时，可抓住短期下跌 的机会逢低布局。⿊⾊商品整体偏震荡，原油或在地缘⽀撑下有所上⾏， 但不确定性较⼤，因此建议保持观望。 n ⻛险提⽰：地缘冲突加剧⻛险，关税冲突⼴泛升级，国内增量政策和经 济修复不及预期，美联储货币政策⼤幅偏离预期。 • 国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，贵金属涨幅居前。 n 今⽇市场：根据Wind数据，今日国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，贵金属 涨幅居前，铂金涨10.58%；基本金属全部上涨，沪锡涨6.61%；非金属建 材全部上涨，玻璃涨0.56%；化工品跌幅居前，苯乙烯跌2.87%；农副产品 多数下跌，原木跌1.90%；黑色系全部下跌，硅铁跌1.44%；能源品全部下 跌，低硫燃料油跌1.22%；新能源材料多数下跌，工业硅跌0.82%；航运期 货全部下跌，集运指数(欧线)跌0.39%；油脂油料多数下跌，豆粕跌0. ...

申银万国期货研究所 戴鸿绪 （从业编号F03153282 交易咨询号Z0023729） 评 论 及 策 略 生猪市场呈现期现联袂回落的走势，主力合约LH2605收跌0.69%。现货层面，全国外三元生猪 出栏均价也小幅下滑。主要由于小年临近，养殖户销售窗口期日益收窄，导致压栏情绪松 动，市场供应压力陡增。下游屠宰企业开工率有所提升，但仍难以消化供应压力，导致成交 价格承压下行。综合来看，市场短期内呈现"供需双增，但供给压力更为突出"的博弈格局 。预计猪价可能以弱势稳定为主，后续行情的关键，需要密切关注养殖端的出栏情绪是否延 续以及屠宰企业开工率能否有更强劲的表现。 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相 ...

客户端 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 作者： 新能源有色金属组 相关品种：沪金、沪银 宏观面上看，美国1月挑战者裁员数量飙升至10.84万人，新增招聘岗位仅5300多个，均创17年来同期最 差。去年12月职位空缺数量大幅下降至654万，为2020年以来最低。上周初请失业金人数则意外大增2.2 万至23.1万。美国2月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值录得57.3，创六个月来最高水平。与此同时，1年 期通胀预期降至3.5%，为一年来的最低水平。弱势的就业数据或将强化美联储在货币政策上的偏鸽表 态，整体看利多贵金属的宏观环境未发生改变。 此外，2月7日，央行公布数据显示，1月末黄金储备为7419万盎司，较上月末增加4万盎司。这是自2024 年11月重启增持后，央行连续第15个月增加黄金储备。 近期贵金属价格波动率显著升高，与美股等风险资产的正向相关性凸显。近期多次出现价格大幅下挫的 情况，主要催化或集中在美股riskoff情绪下的恐慌性抛售，由于贵金属前期价格上涨斜率过于陡峭，流 动性恐慌背景下易出现价格大幅下挫。但整体看多贵金属的逻辑及宏观环境未发生变化，故目前对于操 作而言，贵金属仍然建 ...

【行情资讯】 贵金属日报 2026-02-10 贵金属 贵金属研究 图 1：金银重点数据汇总 沪金涨 1.00 %，报 1127.00 元/克，沪银涨 5.24 %，报 20934.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 2.10 %， 报 5084.20 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 8.00 %，报 83.05 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.22 %，美元指数报 96.88 ； 周初贵金属市场整体维持高位震荡格局，延续此前大幅下跌后的修复行情。市场普遍定价美联 储 6 月降息预期为金价提供了核心基本面支撑。在美国就业数据表现偏弱的背景下，上周五博 斯蒂克表态称，需等待 4-5 月经济数据出炉后才能释放更明确的政策信号。白银则受紧俏的 库存与现货支撑，近月合约价格仍具备韧性。当前市场焦点集中于本周三公布的美国非农就业 报告，以及周五发布的消费者物价指数。 美联储理事米兰 2 月 10 日表态：财政端，其主张投资全额费用化以刺激资本支出，认为关税 有助于改善美国财政，支持在困难时期动用资产负债表；货币端，强调央行的相对独立性，认 为联储的货币政策应与商业周期相匹配，且需远离非货币问题，并暗示关税 ...

天风期货分析指出，近期沪金期货呈现极端波动与多空博弈加剧的特征，上周黄金期货市场经历了一场 历史级的"暴涨暴跌"，单周振幅超20%。本周初市场企稳反弹，黄金主力合约重回5000美元关口。当前 反弹表明，急跌后的市场结构已通过"洗盘"得到修复。综合来看，黄金或进宽幅震荡区间，交易者需关 注宏观数据或地缘冲突等因素；中长期来看，因央行购金与长期配置盘入场将对黄金形成一定程度支 撑。 每日经济新闻 近日，爱泼斯坦案持续冲击英国政坛，因英国前驻美国大使曼德尔森涉爱泼斯坦案，英国首相幕僚长摩 根·麦克斯威、公关总监蒂姆·艾伦先后引咎辞职。英国首相斯塔默面临要求其辞职的舆论压力，当地时 间9日，斯塔默表示不会辞职。 2月9日，英国政坛变动及美国就业数据疲软预期等双重因素催化，金价震荡走强， COMEX黄金期货价 格盘中一度突破5100美元，尾盘小幅回落，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货涨2.10%报5084.20美元/盎司， 黄金ETF华夏（518850）涨3.43%、黄金股ETF（159562）涨2.48%，有色金属ETF基金（516650）涨 2.33%。 ...

黑色建材日报 2026-02-10 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【策略观点】 昨日商品市场整体情绪恢复，成材价格向下试探。海外方面，天气影响基本消除，铁矿石发运影响基本消 除。临近春节，螺纹钢供需两端均出现明显的季节性回落，库存进入累积阶段，但整体累库幅度仍处于可 控范围；热轧卷板需求相对稳健，产量小幅下降，库存小幅累积，供需结构整体偏中性。综合来看，当前 黑色系仍处于多空因素交织的底部博弈阶段。一方面，国内房地产政策基调延续边际缓和，对需求预期形 成一定托底；另一方面，海外货币政策不确定性上升，市场风险偏好阶段性回落，对商品价格形成扰动。 短期内黑色系仍以区间弱势震荡运行为主，趋势性机 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 螺纹钢： （邱跃成，从业资格号：F3060829；交易咨询资格号：Z0016941） 昨日螺纹盘面弱势下跌，截止日盘螺纹2605合约收盘价格为3064元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格下跌13元/ 吨，跌幅为0.42%，持仓增加9.02万手。现货市场商家陆续离市，报价平稳，成交基本停滞，唐山地区 迁安普方坯价格持平于2910元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于3160元/吨。据钢银数据，本周全国建 材库存增加13.17%至381.9万吨，热卷库存增加6.16%至223.81万吨，库存呈现加速累积态势。目前长流 程钢厂仍有一定的利润空间，铁水产量处于相对高位，市场对于节后钢厂复产进度快于需求复苏进度仍 有较明显担忧，节后库存面临较大的消化压力。同时，近期铁矿石、煤焦库存持续累积，随着钢厂补库 结束，原料端价格连续下跌，原料对钢价支撑力度减弱。预计短期螺纹盘面仍以弱势整理运行为主。 （邱跃成，从业资格号：F3060829；交易咨询资格号：Z0016941） 昨日焦煤盘面上涨，截止日盘焦煤2605合约收盘1147元/吨，价格上涨8.5元/吨，涨幅0.75%，持 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market opened high and rose, with Wind All A Index increasing by 1.89% and a trading volume of 2.27 trillion yuan [9] - The communication sector led the gains, with the CSI 1000 Index up by 2.26%, CSI 500 Index up by 2.02%, CSI 300 Index up by 1.63%, and SSE 50 Index up by 1.45% [9] Economic Policies - Recent economic adjustment policies have been introduced, providing fundamental support for the indices [9] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to establish a national-level merger fund, regulate local economic promotion behaviors, and advance significant projects in high-tech industries during the 14th Five-Year Plan [9] Monetary Policy - The central bank lowered various structural monetary policy tool rates by 25 basis points, aimed at supporting specific financing needs in sectors like technological innovation and carbon reduction [9] - This rate cut is expected to guide funds into relevant sectors, boosting valuations and reducing financing costs in the long term [9] Market Sentiment - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced an increase in the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100%, indicating increased risk aversion among investors [9] - The market is entering a high volatility phase, with a cautious approach recommended for short-term trading [9] Bond Market - The bond futures market showed positive movement, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.14% and the 10-year main contract up by 0.06% [10] - The central bank conducted a 1130 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining a stable liquidity environment [10] Inflation and Economic Indicators - The 10-year treasury yield has fallen below the 1.8% mark, with low expectations for further rate cuts and concerns over inflation data impacting the bond market [10] - The PMI price index is expected to maintain positive month-on-month growth, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in PPI anticipated [10] Precious Metals - The London spot precious metals market experienced fluctuations, with the gold-silver ratio dropping to around 61.3 and the platinum-palladium spread decreasing to 376 USD/oz [11] - U.S. Treasury Secretary's comments suggest a cautious approach to monetary policy, which may alleviate market concerns about aggressive tightening [11] - Geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region continue to pose risks, impacting market predictions for precious metals [11]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a rebound, with gold prices surpassing $5,000 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and a declining dollar index [1] Group 1: Gold Market - As of February 9, 2026 April gold futures rose by $95.6, closing at $5,084.2 per ounce, marking a 1.92% increase [1] - The demand for precious metals is supported by ongoing global issues, despite the absence of major geopolitical hotspots [1] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.84% to 96.814, contributing to the favorable conditions for gold prices [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Speculation - Recent volatility in the precious metals market has led to a cooling of speculative sentiment, with the CFTC reporting a significant reduction in long positions [1] - Hedge funds and large speculators reduced their net long positions by 23% to 93,438 contracts, the lowest level since October 2025 [1] Group 3: Silver Market - March silver futures increased by 552.5 cents, closing at $83.050 per ounce, reflecting a 7.13% rise [1]

Group 1 - Iran's Foreign Minister, Zarif, announced that negotiations with the U.S. in Muscat focused on nuclear issues, with both sides agreeing to continue discussions, pending leadership decisions on the next meeting's timing and location [1] - The Federal Reserve's Vice Chairman, Jefferson, stated that the current interest rate stance is "fully appropriate" for a stable economy, indicating no immediate urgency to resume interest rate cuts [1] - The FAO reported that global grain consumption is expected to increase by 61.8 million tons or 2.2% in the 2025/26 season, reaching 2.938 billion tons, primarily driven by a 3.0% rise in corn consumption [1] Group 2 - Precious metals continued to rebound, influenced by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, which cooled rate cut expectations and led to a significant recovery in the dollar index [2][17] - The oil market saw a 1.97% increase in night trading, with ongoing indirect negotiations between Iran and the U.S. in Muscat, where both parties agreed to continue discussions without threats or pressure [3][12] - Copper prices rose by 0.6% in night trading, amid tight supply of concentrates and fluctuating smelting profits, with short-term adjustments expected due to stable electricity investment and mixed performance in downstream demand [18] Group 3 - The domestic futures market showed a mixed performance, with most major contracts declining, while caustic soda and synthetic rubber saw increases of over 2% and 1% respectively [1] - The market is currently cautious regarding various commodities, with a focus on potential adjustments in supply and demand dynamics, particularly in metals and energy sectors [5][10]