Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year percentiles, and all - time percentiles of various stock index futures spreads, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, as well as cross - variety ratios on March 16, 2026 [1]. Summary by Category - **Futures - Spot Spread**: For example, the IF futures - spot spread is - 11.14, with a change of 18.02 from the previous day, and it is at the 70.00% all - time percentile and 36.70% historical 1 - year percentile [1]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Different inter - delivery spreads such as next - month minus current - month, far - month minus current - month are provided for each futures type. For instance, the IC next - month minus current - month spread is - 74.40, with a change of - 7.00 from the previous day, at the 9.00% all - time percentile and 13.10% historical 1 - year percentile [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratio**: Ratios like IC/IF, IC/IH, etc. are given. For example, the IC/IF ratio is 1.7634, with a change of - 0.0186 from the previous day, at the 88.90% all - time percentile and 98.00% historical 1 - year percentile [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - The report shows the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing of various treasury bond futures spreads, including basis, inter - delivery spreads, and cross - variety spreads on March 16, 2026 [2]. Summary by Category - **Basis**: For example, the TS basis is 1.3488, with a change of 0.0017 from the previous trading day, and it is at the 14.50% percentile since listing [2]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Different inter - delivery spreads for each treasury bond futures type are presented. For instance, the TS current - quarter minus next - quarter spread is 0.0080, with a change of - 0.0220 from the previous trading day, at the 21.30% percentile since listing [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc. are provided. For example, the TS - TF spread is - 3.4990, with a change of - 0.0030 from the previous trading day, at the 10.50% percentile since listing [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View - The report provides domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals on March 16, 2026 [4]. Summary by Category - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic futures closing prices of AU2604, AG2606, etc. and foreign futures closing prices of COMEX gold, COMEX silver, etc. are given, along with their changes and percentage changes from the previous day [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of London gold, London silver, etc., and their changes and percentage changes from the previous day are presented [4]. - **Basis**: Basis values such as gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract, silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract, etc., along with their changes and historical 1 - year percentiles are provided [4]. - **Ratios**: Ratios like COMEX gold/silver, Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver, etc. are given, along with their changes and percentage changes from the previous day [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Values of 10 - year US Treasury yield, 2 - year US Treasury yield, etc., and their changes and percentage changes from the previous day are presented [4]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Inventory and positions of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold, COMEX gold, etc., and their changes and percentage changes from the previous day are provided [4].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Date: March 16, 2026 [2] 2. IM Futures 2.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 1000 was 8,211.35, down 0.04% [4]. - The main contract of IM (IM2603) closed at 8,187.00, down 0.21% [4]. - The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 218,779 lots, an increase of 16,749 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 381,564 lots, an increase of 5,454 lots [5]. 2.2 Basis and Other Indicators - The main contract of IM was at a discount of 24.35 points, up 2.94 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -21.71% [5]. - The dividend impacts of the four IM contracts were 0.01 points, 0.2 points, 39.07 points, and 60.37 points respectively [5]. 2.3 Main Seats' Positions - The trading volume, long positions, and short positions of the top five, ten, and twenty seats in different contracts (IM2603, IM2606, IM2609) are detailed with their changes from the previous day [17][19][21] 3. IF Futures 3.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 300 was 4,671.56, up 0.05% [22]. - The main contract of IF (IF2603) closed at 4,662.80, up 0.06% [22]. - The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 124,362 lots, an increase of 18,942 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 273,674 lots, an increase of 2,094 lots [23]. 3.2 Basis and Other Indicators - The main contract of IF was at a discount of 8.76 points, up 2.38 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -13.71% [23]. - The dividend impacts of the four IF contracts were 0 points, 0.48 points, 30.16 points, and 84.08 points respectively [23]. 3.3 Main Seats' Positions - The trading volume, long positions, and short positions of the top five, ten, and twenty seats in different contracts (IF2603, IF2606, IF2609) are detailed with their changes from the previous day [36][38][39] 4. IC Futures 4.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 500 was 8,185.15, down 0.66% [41]. - The main contract of IC (IC2603) closed at 8,178.40, down 0.62% [41]. - The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 169,779 lots, an increase of 26,553 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 302,347 lots, an increase of 9,562 lots [42]. 4.2 Basis and Other Indicators - The main contract of IC was at a discount of 6.75 points, up 19.25 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -6.03% [42]. - The dividend impacts of the four IC contracts were 0 points, 6.86 points, 59.04 points, and 95.32 points respectively [42]. 4.3 Main Seats' Positions - The trading volume, long positions, and short positions of the top five, ten, and twenty seats in different contracts (IC2603, IC2606, IC2609) are detailed with their changes from the previous day [54][55][57] 5. IH Futures 5.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of SSE 50 was 2,954.09, down 0.09% [59]. - The main contract of IH (IH2603) closed at 2,952.00, down 0.26% [59]. - The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 60,304 lots, an increase of 20,073 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 110,160 lots, an increase of 6,105 lots [59]. 5.2 Basis and Other Indicators - The main contract of IH was at a discount of 2.09 points, down 2.24 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -5.16% [60]. - The dividend impacts of the four IH contracts were 0 points, 0 points, 18.18 points, and 63.32 points respectively [60]. 5.3 Main Seats' Positions - The trading volume, long positions, and short positions of the top five, ten, and twenty seats in different contracts (IH2603, IH2606, IH2609) are detailed with their changes from the previous day [75][77][79]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the stock index opened lower and moved higher. On Monday, it gapped down significantly due to the Middle - East situation and oil prices, then rebounded after hitting the bottom. From Tuesday, the market rebounded continuously, but the stock index declined again on Thursday and Friday. The Middle - East situation and oil prices are important factors affecting the market. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time, causing oil prices to remain high and inflation expectations to rise, it will affect the Fed's decision - making. The longer the Iranian issue lasts, the more unfavorable it is for global risk assets and will further increase the market volatility. In the second half of the week, market sentiment cooled significantly, trading volume decreased, and the stock index declined. There was obvious risk - aversion sentiment on Friday [4]. - The Middle - East situation and oil prices are the most concerned issues in the market over the weekend. Although Iran said that the important oil infrastructure on Kharg Island was not damaged after the attack, the US is sending troops to the Middle East, and the situation has not eased. Many countries will send warships to ensure the smooth shipping of the Strait of Hormuz with the US. The Iranian foreign minister said that the Strait of Hormuz is only closed to ships and oil tankers related to the US and Israel. Many foreign banks expect that the crude oil supply gap will expand sharply in the next few days, and there is a risk of a further sharp increase in oil prices. High oil prices will push up global inflation, reduce the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut, tighten global liquidity, increase risk - aversion sentiment, and restrict the stock index. Therefore, in the face of uncertainties, the market will consolidate in a volatile manner and wait for the situation to become clear [4]. - In the futures market, the basis position of stock - index futures fluctuates with the spot. The position transfer before delivery has begun, which will have a certain impact on the price difference next week [4]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. First Part: Weekly Core Point Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekend News** - On March 13, Premier Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council, which studied and implemented the important speeches of General Secretary Xi Jinping during the Two Sessions and the spirit of the Two Sessions, discussed and passed the "Division of Key Work in 2026 of the State Council", studied the establishment of a negative - list management mechanism for local fiscal subsidies, and reviewed and approved the "Revised Draft of the National Agricultural Census Regulations" [3]. - China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Wu Qing chaired an enlarged meeting of the Party Committee, which studied and implemented the important speeches of General Secretary Xi Jinping during the Two Sessions and the spirit of the Two Sessions, and studied and deployed specific measures for the CSRC system to implement them. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to closely track the changes in the international financial market and internal and external environment, and strengthen the linkage monitoring and supervision of domestic and foreign, futures and spot markets. It also mentioned cracking down on illegal and违规 behaviors such as financial fraud, market manipulation, insider trading, and false statements [3]. - The central bank's February financial statistics report shows that the cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first two months was 9.6 trillion yuan, 316.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 5.61 trillion yuan in the first two months; M2 increased by 9% year - on - year at the end of February; RMB deposits increased by 9.26 trillion yuan in the first two months, and deposits of non - banking financial institutions increased by 2.84 trillion yuan [3]. - The central bank announced that on March 16, 2026, it will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan outright reverse - repurchase operation with a term of 6 months (182 days) in the form of fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bids to maintain the liquidity of the banking system [3]. - Iran said that after the attack on Kharg Island, after preliminary observation and evaluation, the important oil infrastructure on the island was not damaged, and related operations continued [3]. - **Comprehensive Analysis** - **Logic Sorting**: The stock index opened lower and moved higher this week. Affected by the Middle - East situation and oil prices, it gapped down significantly on Monday, then rebounded after hitting the bottom. The market rebounded continuously from Tuesday, but the stock index declined again on Thursday and Friday. The Middle - East situation and oil prices are important factors affecting the market. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time, causing oil prices to remain high and inflation expectations to rise, it will affect the Fed's decision - making. The longer the Iranian issue lasts, the more unfavorable it is for global risk assets and will further increase the market volatility. In the second half of the week, market sentiment cooled significantly, trading volume decreased, and the stock index declined. There was obvious risk - aversion sentiment on Friday [4]. - **Outlook for the Future**: The Middle - East situation and oil prices are the most concerned issues in the market over the weekend. Although Iran said that the important oil infrastructure on Kharg Island was not damaged after the attack, the US is sending troops to the Middle East, and the situation has not eased. Many countries will send warships to ensure the smooth shipping of the Strait of Hormuz with the US. The Iranian foreign minister said that the Strait of Hormuz is only closed to ships and oil tankers related to the US and Israel. Many foreign banks expect that the crude oil supply gap will expand sharply in the next few days, and there is a risk of a further sharp increase in oil prices. High oil prices will push up global inflation, reduce the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut, tighten global liquidity, increase risk - aversion sentiment, and restrict the stock index. Therefore, in the face of uncertainties, the market will consolidate in a volatile manner and wait for the situation to become clear [4]. - **Futures Situation**: The basis position of stock - index futures fluctuates with the spot. The position transfer before delivery has begun, which will have a certain impact on the price difference next week [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation** - **Unilateral**: Consolidate in a volatile manner, and use grid trading [5]. - **Arbitrage**: IM long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage [5]. - **Options**: Double - buying strategy [5]. 2. Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - **Performance of A - share Indexes** - On March 9, the stock index gapped down, then rebounded after hitting the bottom. It fluctuated and rebounded at the beginning of the week and declined again in the second half of the week. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index rose 0.19%, the Shanghai 50 Index fell 1.2%, the CSI 500 Index fell 1.44%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.42% [16]. - **A - share Trading Volume** - The A - share market remained stable this week. The trading volume increased to 2.67 trillion yuan on Monday and then remained at 2.4 trillion yuan. The total trading volume for the whole week was 12.4 trillion yuan, and the average daily trading volume decreased by 5.4% compared with last week. The trading - volume proportion of each index remained generally stable. The trading - volume proportions of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 and Shanghai 50 Indexes increased during the sharp fluctuations at the beginning of the week, and the trading - volume proportion of the CSI 1000 Index also increased during the sharp decline, and then remained stable [17][21]. - **A - share Stock Price Changes** - The proportion of falling stocks remained high this week, and the proportion of falling stocks remained at 60% - 70% in the second half of the week. Except on Monday, the proportion of limit - up stocks remained at 1.2% - 1.3%, while the proportion of limit - down stocks increased slightly but remained at a low level overall [26]. - **A - share Margin Trading** - The margin - trading balance of A - shares continued to be stable, remaining at 2.63 trillion yuan, and the ratio of margin - trading balance to the A - share floating - market value remained at 2.54%. There was a small net margin - trading purchase in the second half of the week, with the daily net purchase amount below 10 billion yuan. The proportion of margin - trading purchases in the A - share trading volume once dropped to 9% [27]. - **A - share Industry Performance** - Relevant data shows the weekly changes in industry performance and industry popularity [34]. - **A - share Industry Capital Flows** - Relevant data shows the weekly net capital inflows and net margin - trading inflows of industries [36]. - **A - share Market Financing** - Relevant data shows the IPO financing and private placement financing in the A - share market [39]. - **Stock - Index Futures Basis Changes** - Relevant data shows the basis changes of IM, IC, IF, and IH stock - index futures [42]. - **Stock - Index Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes** - Relevant data shows the trading volume and open interest changes of IM, IC, IF, and IH stock - index futures [45][46][47][48]. - **Comparison of Stock - Index Futures and Spot Trading Volume** - Relevant data shows the comparison of the trading volume of the main contracts and all contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH stock - index futures with their corresponding spot indexes [51]. - **Stock - Index Futures Main - Contract Open Interest** - Relevant data shows the net short - position ratios of the top five and top ten holders of IF, IC, IM, and IH stock - index futures [54][55].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 交易叙事或仍围绕油价，贵金属料震荡为主 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2026-3-16 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 ◆ 上周美伊冲突持续且暂无缓和迹象，油价维持高位运行，通胀风险上升继续削弱美联储年内降 息预期，美元指数走强突破100关口，贵金属价格继续承压。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）美 伊冲突仍在持续且暂无缓和迹象：伊朗新任领袖发表强硬声明、霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭、美媒 称美正向中东增派海军陆战队和军舰、特朗普宣布对伊朗石油出口枢纽哈尔克岛发动空袭等表 明美伊冲突尚无缓和迹象，甚至有进一步升级的风险。在此背景下，贵金属市场持续交易"冲 突持续——油价上涨——通胀上行风险增加——美联储降息预期削弱——美元指数、美债收益 率走强"这一逻辑，因此金银价格受到较为显著的压制。另一方面，美元指数的走强还源于此 次能源危机对欧洲、日本造成的影响更大，非美货币走弱被动抬升美元指数， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - On March 13, platinum and palladium prices continued to decline. The PT2606 contract closed down 3.72% to 541.6 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed down 2.43% to 408.1 yuan/gram. The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran shows no sign of easing, with high oil prices and weakening interest - rate cut expectations, which strengthen the US dollar index and suppress platinum and palladium prices. The global platinum market is expected to face a supply shortage for the fourth consecutive year, providing support for platinum prices, but the suspension in late 2026 and potential palladium market surplus may limit the upside. In the short - term, platinum and palladium are likely to maintain a volatile and downward trend. After the Middle East geopolitical situation becomes clear, investors can consider going long on platinum at low prices or continue to hold the [long platinum, short palladium] strategy [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Domestic Prices (yuan/gram)**: Platinum futures主力收盘价 dropped 4.08% to 541.6 from 564.65; spot platinum (99.95%) fell 0.91% to 544 from 549; platinum basis (spot - futures) decreased 115.34% to 2.4 from - 15.65. Palladium futures主力收盘价 declined 2.04% to 408.1 from 416.6; spot palladium (99.95%) remained unchanged at 411; palladium basis (spot - futures) decreased 151.79% to 2.9 from - 5.6 [4] - **International Prices (15:00, dollars/ounce)**: London spot platinum dropped 3.27% to 2100.3 from 2171.358; London spot palladium fell 2.41% to 1609.499 from 1649.252; NYMEX platinum decreased 3.47% to 2094.6 from 2170; NYMEX palladium declined 1.93% to 1625.5 from 1657.5 [4] - **Internal - External 15:00 Spread (yuan/gram)**: The spread of domestic platinum - London platinum decreased 27.17% to 15.05 from 20.66; the spread of domestic platinum - NYMEX platinum decreased 21.55% to 16.47 from 21.00; the spread of domestic palladium - London palladium decreased 34.54% to 3.41 from 4.59; the spread of domestic palladium - NYMEX palladium decreased 56.94% to 0.58 from 1.35 [4][5] - **Price Ratios**: The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum to palladium decreased to 1.3271 from 1.3554; the ratio of London spot platinum to palladium decreased to 1.3049 from 1.3166 [5] Inventory and Position Data - **Inventory (troy ounces)**: NYMEX platinum inventory remained unchanged at 204,678; NYMEX palladium inventory remained unchanged at 582,441 [5] - **Position**: NYMEX total platinum position decreased 1.99% to 68,758 from 70,154; NYMEX non - commercial net long position of platinum increased 6.20% to 13,832 from 14,690; NYMEX total palladium position decreased 2.57% to 15,679 from 16,093; NYMEX non - commercial net long position of palladium decreased 196.89% to 161 from - 156 [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short term, the logic of "rising oil prices, increasing inflation risks, and weakening rate - cut expectations" dominates and may continue to suppress precious metal prices. The focus should be on the progress of the Middle East geopolitical situation and oil price trends. In the long run, with the probability of Fed rate - cuts, global geopolitical uncertainties, and the wave of de - dollarization, the demand for precious metal allocation by global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, and the price center of precious metals still has room to rise. Long - term strategies suggest buying on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On March 13, 2026, London gold spot was at $5086.36/ounce, down 1.5% from the previous day; London silver spot was at $82.68/ounce, down 3.8%. COMEX gold was at $5091.00/ounce, down 1.5%; COMEX silver was at $82.75/ounce, down 4.0%. AU2604 was at 1133 yuan/gram, down 1.3%; AG2604 was at 21103 yuan/kg, down 5.0%. AU (T + D) was at 1131.30 yuan/gram, down 1.3%; AG (T + D) was at 20860 yuan/kg, down 4.4% [3]. - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: On March 13, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 1.7 yuan/gram, with a change of - 19.0%; the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 243 yuan/kg, with a change of - 38.6%. The gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was 2.83 yuan/gram, with a change of 217.7%; the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was 117 yuan/kg, with a change of - 54.0%. The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 53.69, with a change of 3.9%; the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 61.53, with a change of 2.5% [3]. 3.2 Position Data - **ETF and COMEX Positions**: As of March 13, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1071.56 tons, down 0.40% from the previous day; the silver ETF - SLV was 15460.18069 tons, down 0.51%. COMEX non - commercial long positions in gold were 215445 contracts, up 0.79%; non - commercial short positions were 52313 contracts, down 2.41%; non - commercial net long positions were 163132 contracts, up 1.87%. COMEX non - commercial long positions in silver were 33306 contracts, down 2.69%; non - commercial short positions were 8728 contracts, down 19.84%; non - commercial net long positions were 24578 contracts, up 5.31% [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **SHFE and COMEX Inventories**: On March 13, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 105417.00 kg, with a change of 0.00%; SHFE silver inventory was 326566.00 kg, up 5.35%. COMEX gold inventory was 32551562 troy ounces, down 0.32%; COMEX silver inventory was 341723209 troy ounces, down 0.76% [3]. 3.4 Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Markets - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: On March 13, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.90, up 0.07%. The US dollar index was 100.50, up 0.77%. The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.73%, down 0.80%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.28%, up 0.23%. The VIX was 27.19, down 0.37%; the S&P 500 was 6632.19, down 0.61%; NYMEX crude oil was $99.31, up 3.03% [3]. 3.5 Market Analysis - **Market Review**: On March 13, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 1.33% to 1133 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 4.19% to 20923 yuan/kg [3]. - **Influence Analysis**: Trump's announcement of an air strike on Iran's oil export hub, the unresolved geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, the non - navigation of the Strait of Hormuz, and high oil prices increase inflation and weaken the Fed's rate - cut expectations. The strengthening of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields suppresses precious metal prices. The increase in SHFE silver inventory may affect silver prices. The US economy may face a risk of stagflation [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the bond market lacks substantial bullish drivers, but the low - fluctuating capital prices, the mediocre profit - making effect of the equity market, and the relatively weak domestic demand support the bond market. It is recommended to adopt a bearish approach in the short - term. Future attention should be paid to changes in external demand and the central bank's liquidity injection attitude [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - **Comprehensive Analysis** - February's macro indicators were generally better than expected. Strong external demand and high corporate foreign exchange settlement willingness drove the improvement of industrial product prices, corporate financing, and currency activation. However, the household sector continued to "shrink its balance sheet," and the price index structure remained differentiated, indicating weak domestic terminal demand. In March, there was a divergence between overseas leading indicators and domestic high - frequency data, and the sustainability of strong external demand needs further observation [6] - The market liquidity was balanced this week, and news of stricter self - regulation of non - bank current deposit pricing helped keep certificate of deposit rates low. Next week, the tax period and increased government bond net payment may cause fluctuations in the market liquidity. The central bank's attitude towards liquidity injection is crucial. Recently, the central bank has shown a net withdrawal of long - term funds, with a cumulative reduction of 300 billion yuan in the renewal of repurchase agreements this month. Although external factors pushing up short - term inflation are unlikely to change the loose monetary policy, the central bank may be more cautious in liquidity management [6] - **Strategy Recommendations** - Unilateral trading: Adopt a bearish approach - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [8] Second Part: Relevant Data Tracking - **Credit and Social Financing** - In February, the year - on - year growth rate of domestic loan balances was 6.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.2%, the same as the previous month. The corporate sector's financing demand improved, with a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, up 0.27 percentage points. The government and household sectors' financing growth rates were 16.6% and 0.23% respectively, down 0.7 and 0.31 percentage points [12] - **Money Supply** - In February, M2 increased by 9.0% year - on - year, the same as the previous month; M1 increased by 5.9% year - on - year, up 1.0 percentage point from the previous month. The increase in currency activation may be due to strong external demand and high corporate foreign exchange settlement willingness. Non - bank financial institutions' deposits reached a record high in the same period [17] - **Foreign Trade** - From January to February, China's exports and imports increased by 21.8% and 19.8% respectively year - on - year in US dollars, far exceeding market expectations. However, in the first two weeks of March, the year - on - year growth of port cargo throughput was not significant, and the sustainability of strong external demand needs further observation [19][23] - **Inflation** - In February, PPI was - 0.9% year - on - year, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and + 0.4% month - on - month, the same as the previous month. The price of upstream and mid - stream production materials was the main driver of the increase. CPI and core CPI increased by 1.3% and 1.8% year - on - year respectively, up 1.1 and 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to the Spring Festival factor [28][30] - **Industrial Production** - This week, the operating rates of petroleum asphalt, olefins, PTA, and PVC were 23.0%, 78.44%, 80.33%, and 81.35% respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 0.3, + 0.73, + 0.64, and + 0.24 percentage points. Some petrochemical operating rates were weaker than seasonal levels, while some coal - chemical products' operating rates were at seasonal highs [36] - **Real Estate** - The real estate market in March was fair. The sales area of new houses in 30 large - and medium - sized cities and the number of second - hand house sales in five cities have basically returned to the same period last year. However, the "price - for - volume" strategy in the second - hand housing market may still be ongoing, with the week - on - week decline of the second - hand housing listing price index continuing for the second week [42] - **Market Liquidity** - This week, the market liquidity was balanced and loose. DR001 and DR007 were 1.3216% and 1.4616% respectively. The long - term capital interest rate of joint - stock banks' 1 - year certificates of deposit fluctuated around 1.55 - 1.56%. Next week, the tax period and increased government bond net payment may cause liquidity fluctuations. The central bank's attitude is crucial, as it has shown a net withdrawal of long - term funds recently [48] - **Treasury Bond Futures Valuation and Positioning** - As of Friday's close, the IRR of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts were 1.3488%, 1.4253%, 1.3778%, and 1.6407% respectively. The net long - position ratios of the top ten seats in TS, TF, T, and TL were - 21.35%, - 5.34%, - 1.12%, and - 4.89% respectively, with changes of + 2.36, + 2.44, + 0.17, and - 1.91 percentage points compared to last Friday [53][54] - **Other Data** - The report also provides data on the price spreads between treasury bond futures contracts, trading volume and open interest, spot bond yields and spreads, and US treasury bond yields and exchange rates [62][65][68][71]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the market liquidity situation on March 13, 2026, including the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of different sectors such as stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Plate Liquidity - The report provides data on the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of various sectors, including stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials [1][2] II. Stock Index Plate - On March 13, 2026, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 745.477 billion yuan, a +4.58% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1543.171 billion yuan, a - 0.93% change from the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 47.00% [1] III. Treasury Bond Plate - On March 13, 2026, the trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 268.747 billion yuan, a - 13.36% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 839.588 billion yuan, a - 1.37% change from the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 31.76% [1] IV. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - On March 13, 2026, the trading volume of the basic metal plate was 516.145 billion yuan, a - 2.21% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 664.088 billion yuan, a - 0.43% change from the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 91.57%. The trading volume of the precious metal plate was 626.874 billion yuan, a +20.35% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 514.976 billion yuan, a - 0.36% change from the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 150.55% [1] V. Energy Chemical Plate - On March 13, 2026, the trading volume of the energy chemical plate was 1330.103 billion yuan, a - 14.73% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 579.949 billion yuan, a +0.93% change from the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 215.26% [1] VI. Agricultural Product Plate - On March 13, 2026, the trading volume of the agricultural product plate was 538.618 billion yuan, a +16.09% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 671.715 billion yuan, a +0.75% change from the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 87.06% [1] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - On March 13, 2026, the trading volume of the black building materials plate was 243.842 billion yuan, a +11.85% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 324.860 billion yuan, a +0.71% change from the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 67.69% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Currently, the overall inventory level of the five major steel products is normal, and the supply and demand are relatively balanced. The production of rebar has recovered rapidly, with high inventory in East China and rising warehouse receipts. The demand for hot-rolled coils has recovered slowly, with a high overall inventory level, and the warehouse receipts have reached the highest level in the same period, facing de-stocking pressure. Although the molten iron production has decreased, after the Two Sessions, the resumption of production is expected, and the overall supply and demand of steel are balanced and slightly loose [2]. - The raw material end and external disturbances are significant. The sharp rise in crude oil has promoted the expectation of rising energy prices, and there is news that some varieties of BHP iron ore are restricted, further reducing the volume of tradable resources, with strong cost support [2]. - In terms of driving factors, the basis of rebar is bullish, but that of hot-rolled coils is bearish. The overall profit of steel mills is acceptable, and the expectation of resuming production is strong, with the supply side expected to increase marginally in the later stage. The inventory/warehouse receipts in East China are generally high. On the demand side, the de-stocking slope driven by the recovery speed of construction steel in the later stage is the key. The raw material end is greatly affected by non-supply and demand disturbances and is generally strong. Currently, the black market still lacks strong driving forces. Under the static assumption of external factors such as crude oil, the state of the steel market being trapped in a range may be difficult to break, and the later trading logic may switch to actual supply and demand. Spot goods are advisable to be sold at high prices or hedged opportunistically [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Production - In December 2025, the monthly production of pig iron was 60.72 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%; the cumulative production was 836.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3%. The monthly production of crude steel was 68.18 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%; the cumulative production was 960.81 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%. The monthly production of steel was 115.31 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%; the cumulative production was 1.44612 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [5]. - As of March 13, 2026, the weekly production of rebar was 1.953 million tons, an increase of 219,900 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 7%; the weekly consumption was 1.7681 million tons, an increase of 785,800 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 9%; the inventory was 8.9417 million tons, an increase of 184,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.73%. The weekly production of wire rod was 775,700 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 1%; the weekly consumption was 690,000 tons, an increase of 89,100 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 1%; the inventory was 1.9695 million tons, an increase of 84,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7%. The weekly production of hot-rolled coils was 2.9526 million tons, a decrease of 58,500 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 5%; the weekly consumption was 2.9536 million tons, an increase of 137,900 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 5%; the inventory was 4.7159 million tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13%. The weekly production of cold-rolled coils was 882,700 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.15%; the weekly consumption was 912,000 tons, an increase of 62,400 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.62%; the inventory was 1.8884 million tons, a decrease of 29,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.01%. The weekly production of medium and heavy plates was 1.6457 million tons, an increase of 51,300 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 3.57%; the weekly consumption was 1.6561 million tons, a decrease of 7,900 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 3.66%; the inventory was 2.2334 million tons, a decrease of 10,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%. The total weekly production of the five major steel products was 8.2097 million tons, an increase of 237,300 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.82%; the total weekly consumption was 7.98 million tons, an increase of 1.07 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.86%; the total inventory was 19.75 million tons, an increase of 228,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.94% [6]. Steel Demand - Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative year-on-year decrease in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium-sized cities compared with the same period last year is 20%. The cumulative year-on-year decrease in the land transaction area of 100 cities is 5% [29]. - In 2025, China's steel exports to Iran were only 270,000 tons, which can be ignored, but the exports to the seven Gulf countries were about 14 million tons, accounting for about 11.7% of China's total steel exports. Due to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, China's steel export orders and shipments to this region have been affected. Therefore, the war has a negative impact on China's steel exports in the short term, but if the war continues, the local steel shortage may need to be filled by China, which will form an indirect benefit. From January to February this year, steel exports decreased by 8% year-on-year [37]. Steel Inventory - The rebar basis continued to decline this week and is still slightly higher year-on-year. Currently, the production profit of rebar is generally better than that of hot-rolled coils, which is also reflected in the month-on-month increase in rebar production. According to past rules, the basis is expected to narrow. From a lunar perspective, the inventory in Hangzhou has reached the highest level in the same period, and there is still room for further decline [50]. - The hot-rolled coil basis weakened this week, falling below -20, with a recent decline of about 50 yuan/ton. The high inventory of hot-rolled coils and the warehouse receipts reaching the high level in the same period put pressure on the basis. However, from historical data, the current basis has dropped to the low level in the same period, and the room for further weakening may be limited [54]. - The 5 - 10 month spread of rebar fluctuated little this week. During the de-stocking period, the month spread is likely to weaken. At the same time, the high inventory level in Hangzhou may lead to a weakening of the month spread in the later stage [60]. - The 5 - 10 month spread of hot-rolled coils strengthened slightly, but the room for further strengthening is limited under the pressure of warehouse receipts and de-stocking [62].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For IH2606, in the short - term and medium - term, it is expected to be in a state of oscillation, and intraday it is expected to be on the stronger side, with an overall view of range - bound oscillation due to continuous policy support stabilizing the economic fundamentals [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is on the stronger side, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the overall reference view is range - bound oscillation. Although the risk of long - term Middle East geopolitical crisis may limit stock prices, the market has basically digested this risk. Policy support is the main logic for the long - term upward movement of the stock index. In the short - term, the index will be mainly in range - bound consolidation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2606 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Stronger | Range - bound oscillation | Policy support stabilizes economic fundamentals [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Core Logic**: Last Friday, stock indexes oscillated and slightly pulled back. The long - term risk of the Middle East geopolitical crisis has increased, which may lead to global stagflation and limit central bank's monetary easing, thus suppressing stock prices. However, the market has basically digested this risk, and the marginal impact is weakening. Policy support is the main driver for the long - term upward movement of the stock index. In the short - term, the index will be in range - bound consolidation, with attention on the development of the US - Iran situation, policy implementation effect, and listed company's financial report disclosure [5].