1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, driven by the overall price - rising atmosphere, steel mills and agents had smooth sales, and the inventory digestion speed accelerated. Currently, the inventory of Qing - series agents has significantly decreased. With steel mills' recent suspension of distribution for the 300 - series, agent spot resources are becoming scarce, especially in hot - rolled specifications. Traders have relatively sufficient inventory due to previous active restocking. Since July, stimulated by the "anti - involution" policy, the restocking enthusiasm in the trading sector has been high, but limited by the actual terminal demand, the social inventory remains at a high level. The nickel - iron market is dull, with steel mills and traders mostly adopting a wait - and - see attitude, while high - nickel - iron producers have a strong willingness to hold prices. It is expected that with the production increase of steel mills in August, the demand for high - nickel iron will increase month - on - month, and the oversupply situation of nickel iron is expected to improve. Overall, the stainless - steel price may maintain a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the suppression effect of the 13130 pressure level on the price [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: - **Periodic and Spot Market**: On August 2nd, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,900 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 910 yuan/nickel, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,840 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [11]. - **Supply**: In July, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.5001 million tons. In June, the crude - steel output was 2.8711 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 145,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to June was 8.11%. In June, the estimated crude - steel output of the 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4262 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%; the cold - rolled output of the 300 - series was 706,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07% [11]. - **Demand**: From January to June 2024 in China, the commercial housing sales area was 4.585055 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.50%; in June, the single - month commercial housing sales area was 1.053536 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.55%. In June, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 18.9%, 4.8%, 3%, and 16.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in June was + 14.4% [11]. - **Inventory**: This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1112 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts this week was 103,000 tons, a decrease of 368 tons compared with last week. This week, the social inventories of the 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 192,700 tons, 676,700 tons, and 241,800 tons respectively, among which the inventory of the 300 - series increased by 1.00% month - on - month. This week, the floating quantity of stainless steel was 43,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.59%, and the unloading quantity was 76,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.80% [11]. - **Cost**: This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 915 yuan/nickel, an increase of 0 yuan/nickel compared with last week. Iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 116 yuan/nickel [11]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [13]. 3.2. Periodic and Spot Market - On August 1st, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,900 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 910 yuan/nickel, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,840 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [17]. - The market quotation of Foshan Delong refers to a premium of about - 190 yuan (+ 75) compared with the main contract; the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang refers to a premium of about - 140 yuan (+ 75) compared with the main contract. The disk position was 203,902 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 13.45% [20]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at - 45 (- 15), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 100 (- 45) [23]. 3.3. Supply End - In July, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.5001 million tons. In June, the crude - steel output was 2.8711 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 145,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to June was 8.11% [27]. - According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, in June, the estimated crude - steel output of the 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4262 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%; the cold - rolled output of the 300 - series was 706,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07% [30]. - It is estimated that in June, the monthly stainless - steel output in Indonesia was 360,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%. In June, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 85,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.72% [33]. - In June, the net export volume of stainless steel was 280,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.89% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.24%. From January to June, the cumulative net export was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared with the same period last year [36]. 3.4. Demand End - From January to June 2024 in China, the commercial housing sales area was 4.585055 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.50%; in June, the single - month commercial housing sales area was 1.053536 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.55% [40]. - In June, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 18.9%, 4.8%, 3%, and 16.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in June was + 14.4% [43]. - In June, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 137,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 10.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.16%. In June, automobile sales were 2.9045 million units, a month - on - month increase of 8.12% and a year - on - year increase of 13.83% [46]. 3.5. Inventory - This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1112 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts this week was 103,000 tons, a decrease of 368 tons compared with last week [50]. - This week, the social inventories of the 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 192,700 tons, 676,700 tons, and 241,800 tons respectively, among which the inventory of the 300 - series increased by 1.00% month - on - month. This week, the floating quantity of stainless steel was 43,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.59%, and the unloading quantity was 76,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.80% [53]. 3.6. Cost End - In June, the nickel - ore import volume was 4.3466 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.47%. Currently, the nickel - ore quotation for Ni:1.5% nickel ore is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 9.9436 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.66% [57]. - This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 915 yuan/nickel, an increase of 0 yuan/nickel compared with last week. Iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 116 yuan/nickel [60]. - This week, the chromium - ore quotation was 55 yuan/dry ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/dry ton compared with last week; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 7,900 yuan/50 - base ton, an increase of 100 yuan/50 - base ton compared with last week. In June, the high - carbon ferrochrome output was 775,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.53% [63]. - Currently, the gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel - iron production line is - 827 yuan/ton, and the profit rate reaches - 6.02%. With the warming of downstream consumption sentiment, the situation of steel mills has improved [66].

钢市情绪降温，回 归现实逻辑 螺纹钢周报 2025/08/02 (黑色研究员) 0775-23375155 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03133652 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 赵航 (联系人) zhaoh3@wkqh.cn 周度评估及策略推荐 供给端 期现市场 需求端 利润 库存 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 本周铁水日均产量为240.71万吨，较上周环比下降1.52万吨，铁水产量维持在相对高位。利润方面，华东地区螺纹高炉利润维持231元/吨 附近，即期利润持续回升；谷电利润为50元/吨，利润水平与上周基本持平。 ◆ 需求端：本周螺纹表需203万吨，前值217万吨，环比-6.5%，同比-6.0%，累计需求6453万吨，同比-4.3%。 投机性需求降低，螺纹需求回落明显。 ◆ 进出口：钢坯06月进口15.5万吨。 ◆ 库存：本周螺纹社会库存384万吨，前值373万吨，环比+3.0%，同比-32.2%，厂库162万吨，前值166万吨，环比-2.1%，同比-16.3%。 合计库存546，前值539，环比+1.4%，同比-28.1%。 螺纹钢库存出现小幅累库。 ◆ 利润:铁水成本 ...

Group 1 - The European Union (EU) is criticizing China for "overcapacity" in industries like new energy and steel while simultaneously demanding that China lift export restrictions on rare earth minerals, highlighting a double standard in their approach [3][8][9] - China holds approximately 87% of the world's rare earth resources, which are essential for various high-tech applications, indicating a significant leverage in global supply chains [5][6] - China's response to the EU's demands emphasizes the importance of regulating rare earth exports to protect national resources, asserting that market demand will dictate production capacity rather than external pressures [9][10] Group 2 - In 2022, China's exports of new energy vehicles to the EU increased by 35%, suggesting that European consumers prefer Chinese products despite claims of overcapacity [8] - The EU's request for China to take on "great power responsibility" for global supply chain stability is seen as hypocritical, given past instances where the EU did not advocate for such responsibilities when benefiting from cheap Chinese rare earths [3][6] - The current situation reflects a shift in power dynamics, with China now in a position to negotiate from strength regarding its rare earth resources, contrasting with previous times when it faced technology restrictions from the EU [10]

Group 1 - In July 2023, China's capital market experienced extreme volatility, particularly in the commodity market, with the Wenhua Commodity Index rising by 7.2% in the first 19 trading days, followed by a significant pullback [1][4] - Key commodities such as polysilicon surged by 64%, coking coal by 50%, and glass by 34%, but subsequently, many of these commodities saw declines of around 20% [1][6] - The market's initial rally was triggered by the sixth Central Financial Committee meeting, which emphasized the need for legal and regulatory governance of low-price competition and the orderly exit of backward production capacity [5][6] Group 2 - The market's focus on terms like "low price" and "backward capacity exit" led to comparisons with the supply-side reforms initiated in late 2015, particularly affecting polysilicon, which saw significant price increases [6][7] - Following the announcement of a new round of policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, the commodity market entered a phase of aggressive price increases, with coking coal hitting five consecutive daily price limits [6][7] - However, subsequent policy shifts indicated a more targeted approach to capacity governance, leading to a sharp decline in commodity prices, particularly for previously high-flying products [7][8] Group 3 - The A-share market also experienced a strong upward trend in July, with steel stocks rising over 25% and basic chemicals and construction materials increasing by more than 18% [8][9] - The political bureau meeting's adjustments to the anti-involution narrative may pose downward pressure on cyclical sectors, as evidenced by market corrections in early August [9][10] - Potential risks for the A-share market include uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China tariff negotiations and a weakening expectation for macroeconomic policy support [10][11] Group 4 - The U.S. labor market data showed significant downward revisions, raising concerns about the overall economic outlook and potentially impacting global markets [12][13][14] - The credibility of U.S. economic data has come under scrutiny, which could affect global financial markets, including A-shares, especially given their current high valuations [14] - Despite these challenges, the "national team" has historically intervened to stabilize the market, suggesting that while large declines may be mitigated, volatility remains a concern [14][16]

作者 | 独行侠 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 今年 7月，是中国资本市场史诗级的一个月。尤其是大宗商品市场，极致的过山车行情，实属历 史罕见。 前 19个交易日，文华商品指数累计大涨7.2%。其中多晶硅大涨64%，焦煤大涨50%，玻璃大涨 34%。而后短短6个交易日，大盘回吐了一半涨幅，焦煤、玻璃又纷纷重挫20%左右。要知道， 商品往往有10倍或以上的杠杆，赚钱、亏钱都是成比例大幅扩大。 一念天堂，一念地狱。为什么商品市场会如此极端？商品对应的 A股周期股行情又会如何演绎？ 01 从 7月1日开始，不管是大宗商品市场，还是A股市场，均迎来了一波酣畅淋漓的大涨行情。 导火索无它，即 第六次中央财经委员会召开。它的前身是中央财经领导小组， 2018年3月改名 而来，职责是 针对经济领域的顶层设计、总体布局、统筹协调、整体推进、督促落实。 因此，资本市场对此次重磅会议给予了高度关注，并积极定价。尤其是会议中有一句重磅定调： 依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出。 彼时，市场更在意 "低价"、"落后产能""退出"等关键词，开始与2015年底启动的 ...

证券研究报告|专题研究 25年08月02日 华福证券 反转策略：红利滞涨下的超额选择 证券分析师： 投资要点 研究助理： 周浦寒 S0210524040007 杨逸帆 S0210124110046 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 2 华福证券 华福证券 反转策略或是当下新选择。当前，整体盈利降速，高景气行业缩圈；同时，红利资产的股债收益 差也开始回落。红利资产滞涨时，反转策略或是新选择。 反转行情，多在景气较弱时，与红利行情部分重合。而且，在红利滞涨时，反转存在超额机会。 基于盈利预期上修，我们构建了行业预期的反转模型。模型专注于行业盈利预期的变化，而且当 "低点上修"幅度超过阈值时发出反转信号。 行业盈利预期自低点上修25%、70%时，行业或对应出现长达4个月、1年的行情窗口。1)行业 盈利预期自低点上修25%后，4个月的区间内，行业胜率达到72%，平均跑赢全A指数5%。2)行 业盈利预期自低点上修70%后，4个月的区间内，行业胜率更是达到80%，平均跑赢全A7.8%； 1年的区间内，行业胜率达到80%，平均跑赢全A指数11.7%。 回测区间内，反转指数跑赢全A12%。而且，波动、回撤较全A有效降低 ...

Group 1: Economic Development and Industry Transformation - The Zhengzhou National General Aviation Industry Comprehensive Demonstration Zone is focusing on developing a low-altitude economy led by general aviation, with an emphasis on enhancing operational capacity and integrating technology and industry innovation [4] - The project at the Zhengzhou Aixu site aims to produce 6 million sets of smart air conditioners annually, with a focus on aligning with domestic and international market demands for high-quality development [4] - The Jiyuan Demonstration Zone is recognized as the first national all-area production-city integration demonstration zone, promoting industrial transformation and vibrant economic development [5] Group 2: Technological Innovation and Upgrading - Henan Jiyuan Steel Group has transformed into the largest special steel production enterprise in Central and Western China through a process of upgrading and specialization [5] - Emphasis is placed on leading new productive forces through technological innovation, optimizing energy structure, and promoting energy conservation and consumption reduction [5] Group 3: Governance and Community Engagement - The importance of grassroots governance and community service centers is highlighted, with a focus on addressing urgent issues faced by the public and enhancing social governance [5] - The need for effective disaster prevention and response measures is emphasized, including the establishment of emergency material reserves and community training [5] Group 4: Policy and Strategic Goals - The focus is on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to promote domestic and international dual circulation, aligning with national economic goals [6] - The strategy includes accelerating project construction and building a modern industrial system to ensure effective integration across various industries [6]

今年7月份以来，多场中央重要会议持续释放整治"内卷式"竞争的信号，并明确指向"治理企业无序竞 争""推进重点行业产能治理"，"规范地方招商引资行为"。 落实中央部署，监管部门在"反内卷"方面也有所行动。8月1日，国家发改委表示，正在统筹采取修订法 律、出台政策、完善标准、强化行业自律等举措，加快推动整治"内卷式"竞争问题。 同一天，多家外卖平台集体发文，抵制行业无序竞争，承诺进一步规范补贴行为。此前，针对外卖行业 竞争存在的问题，市场监管总局曾两度约谈外卖平台，要求企业理性参与竞争。 不只外卖行业，从水泥、钢铁、汽车到光伏，多个行业掀起"反内卷"之风。与传统产业相比，平台经济 领域的"价格战"有何特点？为治理"内卷式"竞争，相关法律和政策如何发力？从"卷"价格到"卷"价值， 如何引导企业如何跳出"内卷"怪圈？地方政府在反"内卷式"竞争中又发挥何种作用？ 图为对外经济贸易大学竞争法中心主任、法学院教授黄勇。 围绕这些热点问题，南都·反垄断前沿近日专访了对外经济贸易大学竞争法中心主任、法学院教授黄 勇。黄勇研究竞争法、经济法已有40多年，是反垄断领域的知名专家。 南都：价格竞争是市场经济中常见的竞争手段，也并非所 ...

Core Viewpoint - The successful application of the special steel Q690C developed by Baogang Group in the construction of the Haitai Yangtze River Tunnel marks a significant advancement in high-end special steel materials and demonstrates the company's technical strength in supporting major national projects [1][5]. Group 1 - Baogang Group has provided all the steel for the tunnel's embedded components, showcasing its capability in delivering ultra-high strength and toughness materials for this major engineering project [1][3]. - The Q690C material used in the tunnel represents an innovative shift from traditional carbon steel or low-alloy steel, offering superior low-temperature toughness, high strength, fatigue resistance, impact resistance, corrosion resistance, and weldability [3][5]. - The company quickly mobilized a collaborative mechanism among various departments to meet the high demands of this challenging order, successfully rolling out over 3,000 tons of Q690C special steel for the tunnel [3][5]. Group 2 - The successful application of Q690C in the Haitai Yangtze River Tunnel not only signifies a major breakthrough for Baogang Group in the high-end special steel sector but also highlights its commitment to national strategic projects [5]. - The company aims to continuously drive product upgrades and iterations through new production capabilities, positioning "Baogang manufacturing" as a robust support for major national engineering projects [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the acceleration of China's green transformation in the economy, with a focus on the "old-for-new" policy that promotes low-carbon initiatives and encourages the adoption of energy-efficient appliances [1][12][19] - The "old-for-new" policy has led to significant energy savings for consumers, with new air conditioning units demonstrating a drastic reduction in energy consumption compared to older models, saving consumers approximately $943 million annually [7][9][19] - The shift towards energy-efficient products is evident as manufacturers are increasingly focusing on producing first-level energy efficiency appliances, with a reported 70% of television products shipped being of this category [16][18] Group 2 - The article discusses the impact of government subsidies on the adoption of energy-efficient appliances, with first-level energy efficiency products receiving a 20% subsidy and second-level products a 15% subsidy, driving both consumer and manufacturer engagement [14][19] - Equipment upgrades in traditional industries such as steel and cement are being supported by a special long-term national bond fund of 200 billion yuan, facilitating energy-saving transformations and enhancing green productivity [19][25] - The implementation of smart mining projects and energy-efficient upgrades in mining operations has resulted in significant reductions in energy consumption and increased production efficiency, showcasing the benefits of technological advancements in traditional sectors [25][27]