1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The cost support for steel prices has weakened, leading to a slight decline in steel prices [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Environment - The "Three Red Lines" constraints on the real estate market have been relaxed, improving market expectations and creating a generally favorable macro - environment [5][6] - Policy expectations have resurfaced, with the government emphasizing the governance of low - price and disorderly competition in enterprises and promoting the improvement of product quality [8] 3.2 Black Industry Chain - Steel mills' winter storage replenishment is nearing completion, and high iron ore inventories are suppressing the futures price. The supply and demand of steel are both weak, and the inventory is healthy, but the decline in cost may drag down steel prices slightly [5][9][11] - The upward drive for black commodities depends on cost - driven factors such as policy - restricted coal supply contraction or sudden disturbances in the iron ore supply. Relying on steel demand alone cannot form a smooth positive feedback market [5] - The downward drive is the release of high - inventory liquidity of iron ore, which will lead to the decline of the spot market and then the futures market [5] 3.3 Rebar Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Basis and Spread - Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3220 (-30) yuan/ton, the 05 - contract price was 3077 (-51) yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was 143 (+21) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread was - 47 (+2) yuan/ton [18] - The rebar market shows a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with basis and spread reverse arbitrage opportunities [14] 3.3.2 Demand - New home sales remain at a low level, indicating weak market confidence, while second - hand home sales remain high, reflecting the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area also remains low [22] - It is the traditional off - season, and rebar demand has declined [23] 3.3.3 MS Weekly Data - The supply and demand of rebar are both weak, and the inventory is healthy [24] - The production and inventory of long - and short - process rebar show certain seasonal characteristics [25][27] 3.3.4 Production Profit - Last week, the rebar spot profit was 136 (+7) yuan/ton, the main - contract profit was 134 (+5) yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was 32 (-68) yuan/ton [31] 3.4 Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Basis and Spread - Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3250 (-20) yuan/ton, the 05 - contract futures price was 3251 (-37) yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was - 1 (+17) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread was - 18 (+5) yuan/ton [38] - The hot - rolled coil market also shows a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with basis and spread reverse arbitrage opportunities [34] 3.4.2 Demand - It is the traditional off - season, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has declined. However, the profit window for exports has opened, leading to a rebound in exports [39][40] 3.4.3 MS Weekly Data - The inventory of hot - rolled coils has been successfully reduced, and the production remains at a low level [46][47] 3.4.4 Production Profit - Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was 3 (+17) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 158 (+19) yuan/ton [52] 3.5 Variety Regional Differences - The report shows the regional price differences of rebar, cold - rolled coils, hot - rolled coils, and medium - thick plates [58][59][61][62][64] 3.6 Cold - Rolled and Medium - Thick Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report presents the seasonal data of total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold - rolled coils and medium - thick plates [65][66]

Group 1 - The A-share market has experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.27%, the Shenzhen Component down 2.11%, the ChiNext down 3.28%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board down 4.31% [1] - Citic Securities highlights a conflict between short-term interests and long-term value in overseas markets, driven by a heightened urgency for real economy investments and the disruptive innovation brought by AI [1] - China’s capital market has already transitioned towards real economy pricing, focusing on quality and efficiency improvements, suggesting that short-term market fluctuations should not cause anxiety [1] Group 2 - China Galaxy Securities recommends a "light position for the holiday" strategy to mitigate risks while retaining opportunities for the post-holiday spring market, particularly in a transitional phase where policy expectations have partially materialized [2] - The focus should be on two main lines: the "anti-involution" concept driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and the emphasis on sectors with safety margins in valuations, such as non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, steel, cement, and financials [2] - The second line of focus includes key areas like semiconductors, AI, new energy, military, and aerospace, which are aligned with the new production capacity logic in the domestic economy [2] Group 3 - Zhongtai Securities indicates that the market will maintain a structurally active and oscillating pattern, with technology sectors remaining active in the short term, particularly in AI applications, robotics, and semiconductor equipment [3] - High-dividend sectors are expected to gain traction as the market transitions from high-elasticity trading to more certain configurations post-Spring Festival, with a focus on low-valuation, stable earnings, and high dividend certainty [3] Group 4 - Guojin Securities notes that the global AI industry cycle is entering a new phase, with a shift in focus towards infrastructure investments that cannot be disrupted by AI, leading to a revaluation of physical assets [4] - Recommendations include investing in physical assets like oil, copper, aluminum, and lithium, as well as sectors with global comparative advantages such as electrical equipment and engineering machinery [4] - The consumption recovery channel is expected to benefit from capital inflows, easing of balance sheet pressures, and trends in personnel re-entry, particularly in aviation, duty-free, hotels, and food and beverage sectors [4]

Domestic Demand - Domestic travel demand is steadily increasing, with subway passenger volume up 8.8% compared to the same period in 2024, and domestic flight numbers averaging 14,500, a 1.6% increase year-on-year[2] - Movie ticket revenue has decreased by 37.2% year-on-year, averaging 62.245 million yuan per day[2] - Passenger car sales in January were 679,000 units, down 31.7% from the previous year[2] External Demand - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1993.2, showing a marginal decline but significantly higher than the previous year[2] - The China Export Container Freight Index averaged 1122.2, down 4.5% week-on-week and 16.4% year-on-year[2] - Port cargo throughput reached 281.597 million tons, a 25.5% increase compared to the same period in 2024[2] Production Sector - The operating rate of blast furnaces increased by 0.53 percentage points to 79.55%[2] - The operating rate for automotive semi-steel tires decreased by 2.08 percentage points to 72.76%[2] - PTA production increased by 35,500 tons to 1.4639 million tons, with an operating rate of 76.29%[2] Price Trends - Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains low, with pork prices down 1.12% week-on-week and vegetable prices down 1.46%[3][4] - Producer Price Index (PPI) shows significant increases in coking coal and coke prices, while non-ferrous metals have adjusted downwards due to a stronger dollar and seasonal demand decline[4] Monetary Policy - The central bank's reverse repurchase operations netted 756 billion yuan this week, with SHIBOR rates showing a seasonal decline[5] - The yield curve for government bonds has flattened, with the 30-year yield at 2.2510% and the 10-year yield at 1.8102%[5] International Context - U.S. consumer confidence index rose to 57.3, with one-year inflation expectations dropping to 3.5%, the lowest in 13 months[5] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI rebounded to 52.6%, indicating a return to expansion, with new orders and production indices showing significant growth[7]

Group 1 - The overall A-share pre-announcement rate has improved, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [1][7] - As of February 3, 2026, approximately 3,000 out of 5,478 A-share companies have disclosed their 2025 annual performance forecasts, resulting in a disclosure rate of 54.0% and a pre-announcement rate of 37.0%, up from 33.7% in 2024 [1][7] - In the 2025 annual performance forecasts, there are 623 companies expecting profit increases and 378 companies expecting profit decreases [1][7] Group 2 - Large-cap stocks are expected to show better profitability compared to small-cap stocks, with the ChiNext board having a higher pre-announcement rate [2][8] - The maximum profit change for major indices in 2025 is projected to be 55.2% for CSI 300, 82.8% for SSE 50, 54.7% for CSI 500, and 50.8% for CSI 1000 [2][8] - The pre-announcement rates for major indices are 63.2% for CSI 300, 83.3% for SSE 50, 59.0% for CSI 500, and 49.4% for CSI 1000 [2][8] Group 3 - In terms of industry performance, the defense and electronics sectors have shown high disclosure and pre-announcement rates, indicating a strong potential for profitability improvement [3][9] - The highest disclosure rates among primary industries are coal (81%), real estate (78%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (74%), and computer industry (72%) [3][9] - The highest pre-announcement rates are in non-bank financials (96.2%), non-ferrous metals (67.6%), automotive (52.7%), and steel (50.0%) [3][9] Group 4 - The market outlook for 2026 suggests a gradual bull market, with signs of a profitability bottom emerging and ample liquidity supporting corporate earnings [4][10] - Valuation metrics are near historical averages, with a low interest rate environment providing upward valuation momentum [4][10] - There is significant potential for increased market capitalization in the Chinese stock market as long-term capital flows in [4][10] Group 5 - The industry allocation outlook favors technology and cyclical sectors, with a focus on U.S. stocks and commodities [5][11] - Key areas of interest include technology, domestic circulation, strategic security, and opening up to foreign markets, driven by policy directions from the next five-year plan [5][11] - The market is expected to experience a more comprehensive bull market driven by technological manufacturing and certain cyclical trends [5][11]

Group 1 - The recent global risk asset adjustment is primarily driven by narrative and sentiment rather than fundamental or policy changes, indicating a rebalancing of global assets and internal styles [10][25][32] - The core logic supporting the spring market remains unchanged, with positive fundamentals, favorable policies, and ample liquidity still in place [3][25][28] - The upcoming macro data releases from China and the US are expected to validate improvements in fundamentals, which could enhance market sentiment [7][28] Group 2 - The post-Spring Festival market is anticipated to favor technology manufacturing, resource products, and infrastructure chains, driven by an increase in risk appetite [11][32] - Key sectors to focus on include TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), high-end manufacturing (such as renewable energy and innovative pharmaceuticals), and price recovery chains (including chemicals, building materials, and steel) [14][35][38] - The AI application sector is expected to see concentrated catalysts, with its current crowding level being reasonable, making it a focal point for investment [17][38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Bullish" [2]. Report's Core View - The current inventory accumulation pressure of the five major steel products is relatively limited, with the overall inventory at a relatively low level in history and the inventory accumulation speed slower than in previous years. Coupled with the supply support formed by the potential slight contraction of local production capacity due to recent safety inspections, the steel inventory pressure is limited. Currently, the profit per ton of general steel is considerable. Against the backdrop of the industry's "anti - involution," the performance improvement space of general steel companies is large, and they are expected to experience value restoration. The steel sector is also expected to present an opportunity for allocation. Based on the judgment of the steel industry cycle, the steel sector has strong "anti - involution" attributes and a large profit restoration space. High - quality steel enterprises have excellent upward elasticity brought about by the gradual restoration of performance and the room for the sector's valuation to rise due to the improvement of the supply pattern. The sector still has medium - to - long - term strategic investment opportunities, so the "Bullish" rating for the industry is maintained [2][3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. This Week's Performance of the Steel Sector and Individual Stocks - The steel sector fell 3.02% this week, underperforming the broader market. The CSI 300 fell 1.33% to 4643.60. The top three sectors in terms of gains and losses were food and beverage (4.44%), textile and apparel (2.23%), and banking (2.09%) [10]. - The special steel sector fell 2.10%, the long - product sector fell 1.88%, the plate sector fell 3.84%, the iron ore sector fell 1.74%, the steel consumables sector fell 3.02%, and the trade and distribution sector fell 4.006% [2][13][17]. - The top three stocks in the steel sector in terms of gains and losses were Boyun New Materials (9.79%), Dazhong Mining (5.92%), and Shengde Xintai (4.72%) [15]. 2. This Week's Core Data Supply - As of February 6, the daily average hot metal output was 228.58 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.60 million tons (0.26%) and a year - on - year increase of 0.06% [25]. - As of February 6, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of sample steel enterprises was 85.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 percentage points [25]. - As of February 6, the electric furnace capacity utilization rate of sample steel enterprises was 48.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.59 percentage points [25]. - As of February 6, the output of the five major steel products was 720.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.55 million tons (0.21%) [25]. Demand - As of February 6, the consumption of the five major steel products was 760.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41.08 million tons (5.12%) [35]. - As of February 6, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream trading companies was 3.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.25 million tons (48.24%) [35]. - As of February 1, 2026, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.655 million square meters, a week - on - week increase of 226,000 square meters [35]. - As of February 8, the net financing amount of local government special bonds was 1.0851 trillion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 121.74% [35]. Inventory - As of February 6, the social inventory of the five major steel products was 940.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49.68 million tons (5.58%) and a year - on - year decrease of 18.04% [43]. - As of February 6, the in - plant inventory of the five major steel products was 397.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.56 million tons (2.47%) and a year - on - year decrease of 24.13% [43]. Steel Prices - As of February 6, the general steel composite index was 3414.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 13.31 yuan/ton (0.39%) and a year - on - year decrease of 5.51% [49]. - As of February 6, the special steel composite index was 6582.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.28 yuan/ton (0.03%) and a year - on - year decrease of 2.88% [49]. Steel Mill Profits - As of January 30, the national average hot metal cost was 2396 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12.0 yuan/ton [57]. - As of February 6, the profit per ton of construction steel electric furnace at normal electricity price was - 76 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.0 yuan/ton (5.00%) [57]. - As of February 6, the profit per ton of blast furnace for rebar was 65 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14.0 yuan/ton (27.45%) [57]. - As of February 6, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 39.39%, unchanged from the previous week [57]. Futures - Spot Basis - As of February 6, the spot basis of hot - rolled coils was - 1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17.0 yuan/ton [65]. - As of February 6, the spot basis of rebar was 143 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21.0 yuan/ton [65]. - As of February 6, the spot basis of coke was - 117 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18.0 yuan/ton [65]. - As of February 6, the spot basis of coking coal was 73.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21.5 yuan/ton [65]. - As of February 6, the spot basis of iron ore was 4.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.0 yuan/ton [65]. Raw Materials: Price & Profit - As of February 6, the spot price index of Australian powder ore in Rizhao Port (62% Fe) was 764 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29.0 yuan/ton [74]. - As of February 5, the ex - warehouse price of main coking coal in Jingtang Port was 1700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 80.0 yuan/ton [74]. - As of February 6, the ex - factory price of first - grade metallurgical coke was 1770 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [74]. - As of February 6, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 10 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45.0 yuan/ton [74]. - As of February 6, the price difference between hot metal and scrap steel was 66.3 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 51.9 yuan/ton [74]. 3. Valuation Table and Key Announcements of Listed Companies Valuation Table of Listed Companies - The table shows the closing prices, net profits attributable to parent companies, EPS, and P/E ratios of multiple listed steel companies from 2024 to 2027 [75]. Key Announcements of Listed Companies - Youfa Group plans to invest in establishing a wholly - owned subsidiary, Guangdong Youfa Pipe Industry Technology Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 500 million yuan [76]. - Hainan Mining is planning to acquire the control rights of Luoyang Fengrui Fluorine Industry Co., Ltd. through the issuance of shares and payment of cash and raise supporting funds. The company's stock has been suspended since January 29, 2026, with an expected suspension time of no more than 10 trading days [76]. - Hualing Steel has repurchased 56,023,339 shares as of January 31, 2026, accounting for 0.8109% of the total share capital, with a total transaction amount of 278,597,423.90 yuan [78]. - Anyang Iron and Steel expects a loss of about 460 million yuan in 2025, with a year - on - year reduction of about 85.94% in the loss amount. The net profit after deducting non - recurring gains and losses is expected to be about - 748 million yuan, with a year - on - year reduction of about 77.44% in the loss amount [78]. 4. This Week's Important Industry News - The new - home transactions in 10 major cities increased by 26.8% week - on - week, indicating a warming of real estate demand and having a marginal boost to the demand for construction steel [79]. - Indonesia has suspended the spot coal export due to the government's production cut plan, which may affect China's coal supply and be negative for steel prices [79]. - As of February 2, 23 listed steel companies have released their 2025 performance forecasts, with 12 in profit and 11 in loss [79]. - In January 2026, the sales volume of excavators in China was 18,708 units, a year - on - year increase of 49.5%, with domestic sales increasing by 61.4% and exports increasing by 40.5% [79].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 07 年 月 日 钢铁 惊涛之后 行情回顾（2.2-2.6）： 铁水产量增加，库存增幅扩大。本周全国高炉产能利用率回升，国内 247 家钢厂高炉产能利用率为 85.7%，环比+0.3pct，同比-0.1pct；五大品种 钢材周产量为 819.9 万吨，环比-0.4%，同比+1.4%；本周长流程产量增 加，日均铁水产量增 0.7 万吨至 228.6 万吨，钢材产量小幅下降，螺纹 钢产量降幅明显；库存方面，本周五大品种钢材周社会库存为 940.4 万吨， 环比+5.6%，同比-18.0%，钢厂库存为 397.3 万吨，环比+2.5%，同比- 24.1%；钢材总库存增幅扩大，周环比增加 4.6%，较上周增幅扩大 2.9pct，社会库存增幅大于钢厂库存；本周由产量与总库存数据汇总后的 五大品种钢材周表观消费 760.7 万吨，环比-5.1%，同比+22.3%，其中螺 增持（维持） 行业走势 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 2026-02 钢铁 沪深300 作者 分析师 笃慧 执业证书编 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the steel industry, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others [2][3]. Core Insights - The iron ore market is experiencing downward price trends due to high overseas shipments and increasing port inventories, which have surpassed 170 million tons. This has led to a structural easing of inventory issues as steel mills complete their restocking [6][28]. - Short-term expectations for real estate policy relaxation may improve raw material cost pressures, potentially leading to a recovery in steel mill profits. Long-term, the industry is expected to shift from scale expansion to quality and efficiency improvements, benefiting leading enterprises [6][28]. Summary by Sections Domestic Steel Market - As of February 6, 2026, steel prices have decreased, with HRB400 rebar priced at 3,210 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other products like high-line and hot-rolled steel also saw price declines [12][13]. International Steel Market - In the U.S., hot-rolled steel prices increased to 1,066 USD/ton, while in Europe, prices fluctuated with hot-rolled steel at 782 USD/ton, reflecting a mixed market response [23][25]. Raw Materials and Shipping Market - Domestic iron ore prices are stable with slight declines, while scrap steel prices have risen to 2,090 CNY/ton. The coal market is influenced by production quota adjustments in Indonesia, affecting prices [28][29]. Production and Inventory - As of February 6, 2026, total steel production decreased to 8.2 million tons, with an increase in total inventory to 939.28 million tons, indicating a rise in stock levels despite production cuts [6][12]. Profitability Analysis - The report indicates a decline in steel margins, with average gross profits for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel decreasing by 27 CNY/ton, 19 CNY/ton, and 21 CNY/ton respectively [6][28]. Key Company Valuations and Stock Performance - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for various companies, with Hualing Steel projected to have an EPS of 0.50 CNY in 2025, and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12x, indicating a favorable investment outlook [2][3].

——周末五分钟全知道（2 月第 2 期） [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： [分析师： Table_Author]刘晨明 SAC 执证号：S0260524020001 SFC CE No. BVH021 010-59136616 liuchenming@gf.com.cn [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | 创业板 50 指数：龙头出海， | 2026-02-04 | | --- | --- | | 链动全球:指数研选系列报告 | | | "沃什预期"与美元潮落： | 2026-02-01 | | 全球股市定价锚的切换与重 | | | 构:——港股&海外周聚焦（2 | | | 月第 1 期） | | | 中美最新财报中的行业配置 | 2026-02-01 | | 线索 | | [联系人： Table_Contacts] 毕露露 18600442697 bilulu@gf.com.cn [Table_Page] 投资策略|专题报告 2026 年 2 月 8 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 天时地利人和：新一轮上涨周期 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, recommending several key companies [2][3]. Core Insights - The iron ore market is experiencing downward price trends due to high overseas shipments and increasing port inventories, which have surpassed 170 million tons. This has led to a structural easing of inventory issues as steel mills complete their restocking [6][28]. - Short-term expectations for real estate policy relaxation may improve raw material cost pressures, potentially leading to a recovery in steel mill profits. Long-term, the industry is expected to shift from scale expansion to quality and efficiency improvements, benefiting leading enterprises [6][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Steel Market - As of February 6, 2026, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai is 3,210 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other steel products also saw price declines, with hot-rolled and cold-rolled prices decreasing by 20 CNY/ton [12][13]. 2. International Steel Market - In the U.S., the hot-rolled steel price is 1,066 USD/ton, up 16 USD/ton from last week. In Europe, hot-rolled prices are at 782 USD/ton, increasing by 12 USD/ton [23][25]. 3. Raw Materials and Shipping Market - Domestic iron ore prices are stable with slight declines, while scrap steel prices have increased to 2,090 CNY/ton, up 20 CNY/ton from last week. The coal market is stable, with main coking coal prices in North China dropping to 1,320 CNY/ton [28][29]. 4. Production and Inventory - As of February 6, 2026, total steel production is 8.2 million tons, a decrease of 32,700 tons week-on-week. Total inventory has increased by 496,100 tons to 9.3928 million tons [6][12]. 5. Profitability Analysis - The report indicates a decrease in steel profits, with average gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel declining by 27 CNY/ton, 19 CNY/ton, and 21 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous week [6][28]. 6. Key Company Valuations and Stock Performance - Recommended companies include Hualing Steel, Baosteel, and Nanjing Steel, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth over the next few years [2][6].