Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. High supply leads to significant inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, but the price has dropped near the April low. The moderate improvement in demand and the rebound in costs have boosted market sentiment [2] - Inter - period: EG2601 - EG2605 reverse spread - Inter - variety: None Core View - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4,100 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.76%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,158 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.07%), and the spot basis of EG in East China was 73 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 44 US dollars/ton (up 7 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 599 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 523,000 tons (down 56,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 483,000 tons (down 10,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 35,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the main ports of East China this week is 198,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the secondary ports is 45,000 tons. It is expected that inventory will accumulate again [1] - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and there are still many overseas supply losses. More than two sets of equipment in Saudi Arabia are still in a shutdown or low - load operation state, but due to the issue of individual ships involving the US, the supply will be postponed in the short term. On the demand side, with the recent cooling, the downstream of polyester has moderately improved, which has a certain boost to the overall sentiment [1] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,100 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.76%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,158 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.07%), and the spot basis of EG in East China was 73 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 44 US dollars/ton (up 7 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 599 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Price Difference - Not mentioned in the content Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - With the recent cooling, the downstream of polyester has moderately improved, which has a certain boost to the overall sentiment [1] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 523,000 tons (down 56,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 483,000 tons (down 10,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 35,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the main ports of East China this week is 198,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the secondary ports is 45,000 tons. It is expected that inventory will accumulate again [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Monthly Average Price Futures Listing Strategy Report - Valuation Differentiation, Focus on Opportunities in the Strength and Weakness between Varieties [1] - Report Date: October 28, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Zhang Kexin, Wang Junlong, Lin Jing [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Valuation Range**: Assuming Brent crude oil is at $60 - 70 per barrel, the lower marginal prices for PP, PE, and PVC are approximately 6,350 yuan/ton, 6,500 yuan/ton, and 4,650 yuan/ton respectively; the upper marginal prices are about 7,000 yuan/ton, 7,350 yuan/ton, and 5,150 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **Driving Forces**: Polyolefins have both supply and demand increasing, while PVC demand is weak. Combining the balance sheets, PE has a better outlook. In the fourth quarter, PE is in a tight - balance state, while PP and PVC may experience inventory accumulation [8]. - **Contract Selection**: Considering liquidity, it is recommended to prioritize the PP2602F/L2602F/V2602F contracts [9]. - **Unilateral Strategy**: The listing benchmark prices of PP2602F/L2602F/V2602F are 6,673 yuan/ton, 7,002 yuan/ton, and 4,774 yuan/ton respectively. PP is slightly over - valued, PE is neutrally valued, and PVC is under - valued. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Hedging Strategy**: For the L2602F - PP2602F spread, it is recommended to widen the spread on dips, with a reference range of 200 - 600 yuan/ton. PVC is not recommended for hedging for now [11]. Summary by Directory Core Points and Strategies - **Valuation Range**: Based on Brent crude oil at $60 - 70 per barrel, export and import profit formulas, and cost calculations, the lower and upper marginal prices of PP, PE, and PVC are estimated [7]. - **Driving Forces**: Polyolefin supply has a year - on - year growth rate of over 10%, PVC supply grows by about 6%. PP demand grows by about 5.8%, PE demand is supported by the peak season of greenhouse films, while PVC demand is dragged down by the real estate sector. From the balance sheets, PE is in a better position [8]. - **Contract Selection**: Due to liquidity considerations, the PP2602F/L2602F/V2602F contracts are recommended [9]. - **Unilateral Strategy**: Given the listing benchmark prices and market factors such as potential Sino - US trade agreements and rising oil prices, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [10]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Widen the L2602F - PP2602F spread on dips, and do not recommend PVC for hedging currently [11] Valuation Differentiation - **Production Profits**: PP, PE, and PVC production profits show different trends and levels in different production methods and time periods, with PVC production in a loss state and the integrated profit of caustic soda - PVC slightly in the red [14][21][30]. - **Price Spreads between Varieties**: The price spreads between L - PP, L - PVC, and PP - PVC show different trends over the years, providing potential trading opportunities [36] Polyolefins Supply and Demand Increase, PVC Demand is Weak, PE has a Better Outlook from the Balance Sheet - **Supply and Operating Rates**: The monthly production and operating rates of PP, PE, and PVC show different trends over the years. PP and PE supply is expected to increase, while PVC supply growth is relatively slower [46]. - **Downstream Operating Rates**: The downstream operating rates of PP, PE, and PVC also show different trends, with PVC downstream operating rates affected by the real estate market [59][69]. - **PVC Exports**: India's anti - dumping tax on PVC has been implemented, but the impact on export data has not yet been reflected [75]. - **Demand**: The real estate market data such as housing completion, new construction, and sales area show a downward trend, which has a negative impact on PVC demand [83]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of PP, PE, and PVC show different trends, with PVC inventory potentially increasing [90][99]. - **Balance Sheets**: The balance sheets of PP, PE, and PVC show different supply - demand relationships in different months, with PE in a relatively better position in the fourth quarter [107][110][112]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The cost side has rebounded, and terminal demand has shown marginal improvement under the cooling weather. However, the contradiction of crude oil supply surplus has emerged, and the macro - situation remains unclear. The investment ratings for PX, TA, PF, and PR are neutral. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and geopolitical changes [1][2][5] Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - TA's main contract spot basis is - 83 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of + 5 yuan/ton), and relevant figures for PX, PTA, and short - fiber basis are presented in figures such as Figure 1, Figure 2, Figure 3, and Figure 4 [3][10][11][14] 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - PXN was 247 dollars/ton (with a month - on - month change of + 2.50 dollars/ton) in the previous trading session. PTA's spot processing fee is 79 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of - 26 yuan/ton), and the processing fees of relevant upstream products are also presented in figures like Figure 5, Figure 6, Figure 7, and Figure 8 [2][3][17][20] 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures such as Figure 9, Figure 10, and Figure 11 show the international spreads and import - export profits of products like toluene and PTA [25][27] 4. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Recently, China's PX load has gradually recovered to a relatively high level. The PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan is also presented in figures such as Figure 12, Figure 13, Figure 14, Figure 15, and Figure 16 [2][28][31][33] 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The weekly social inventory of PTA and the monthly social inventory of PX are presented in Figure 17 and Figure 18. The warehouse receipts of PTA, PX, and PF are also presented in relevant figures [36][39][40] 6. Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester start - up rate is 91.4% (with a month - on - month change of - 0.1%). The production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, as well as the loads of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips are presented in figures such as Figure 23, Figure 24, Figure 25, Figure 26, Figure 27, and Figure 28 [3][49][51][53] 7. PF Detailed Data - PF's spot production profit is 254 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of - 43 yuan/ton). Figures such as Figure 37, Figure 38, Figure 39, and Figure 40 show the load, inventory, and other data of PF [4][73][74] 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - PR's bottle - chip spot processing fee is 484 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of - 61 yuan/ton). Figures such as Figure 49, Figure 50, Figure 51, and Figure 52 show the load, inventory, and processing fees of PR [4][88][95]

Core Viewpoint - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) has reported changes in chemical product warehouse receipts as of October 23, indicating fluctuations in various futures contracts [1] Group 1: Warehouse Receipts Changes - Polyethylene futures warehouse receipts stand at 12,958 lots, a decrease of 6 lots compared to the previous period [1] - Polyvinyl chloride futures warehouse receipts are at 121,448 lots, down by 333 lots from the last report [1] - Polypropylene futures warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 14,586 lots [1] - Styrene futures warehouse receipts total 858 lots, reflecting a decrease of 249 lots [1] - Ethylene glycol futures warehouse receipts are stable at 7,945 lots [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas futures warehouse receipts have increased to 2,416 lots, up by 116 lots [1]

Core Insights - The Dalian Commodity Exchange released data on chemical product warehouse receipts on October 23, indicating various changes in futures warehouse receipts for different chemicals [1] Group 1: Warehouse Receipt Data - Polyethylene futures warehouse receipts totaled 12,958 lots, a decrease of 6 lots compared to the previous period [1] - Polyvinyl chloride futures warehouse receipts amounted to 121,448 lots, down by 333 lots from the previous period [1] - Polypropylene futures warehouse receipts remained stable at 14,586 lots, showing no change [1] - Styrene futures warehouse receipts were recorded at 858 lots, reflecting a decrease of 249 lots [1] - Ethylene glycol futures warehouse receipts stood at 7,945 lots, with no change [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas futures warehouse receipts increased to 2,416 lots, up by 116 lots [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it offers individual ratings for various commodities, including "downside space limited," "rebound in the short - term," "sideways - to - bullish," "sideways in the short - term," "sideways with oil," "weak trend," etc. [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and provides trading suggestions for multiple energy and chemical commodities. It takes into account factors such as supply - demand balance, cost changes, macro - events, and policy impacts. For example, for PX, it suggests that the supply - demand is slightly tight, and factories can consider appropriate hedging; for PTA, it recommends reducing short positions as demand is expected to improve; for rubber, it is expected to be sideways - to - bullish; for synthetic rubber, it is expected to be sideways in the short - term, etc. [12][13][15] 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **Fundamentals**: PX prices were stable with some fluctuations, and the开工 rate of Chinese PX factories decreased slightly. PTA futures oscillated, and the spot market had a general negotiation atmosphere. MEG's arrival volume at some ports was announced, and the device load and coal - based start - up rate changed. Polyester's sales volume showed partial surges, and direct - spun polyester staple sales were average. [5][10][11] - **Trend and Suggestions**: PX is in a short - term sideways market, and factories are advised to hedge when PXN rises to $250/ton. PTA is in a sideways market, and short positions should be reduced. MEG short positions should also be reduced. [12][13][14] Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The futures and spot prices of rubber increased, trading volume rose, and positions decreased. The inventory in Qingdao decreased, and overseas raw material prices were firm. [16][18] - **Trend**: Sideways - to - bullish [15] Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of butadiene rubber increased, trading volume rose, and positions decreased. The basis and monthly spread decreased. The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene in the spot market changed slightly, and the start - up rate remained stable. [19] - **Trend and Reason**: Sideways in the short - term. There is fundamental pressure due to high supply, but the valuation is moderately low, and there are macro - events for support. [21] Asphalt - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of asphalt increased slightly, trading volume and positions changed. The basis decreased, and the monthly spread increased. The wholesale prices of asphalt in different regions decreased, and the refinery start - up and inventory rates increased slightly. [23] - **Trend**: Sideways with oil [22] LLDPE - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of LLDPE decreased slightly, the basis and monthly spread changed. The market price continued to decline weakly, and the terminal replenishment enthusiasm was low. [36] - **Trend and Reason**: Weak trend. Affected by the trade war, the raw material cost support weakened, the supply pressure increased, and the inventory pressure was high. [37] PP - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of PP decreased slightly, the basis and monthly spread changed. The domestic PP market was weakly sorted, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high. [40][41] - **Trend and Reason**: Weak trend. Affected by the trade war, the oil price dropped, and the supply was high. [41] Caustic Soda - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of caustic soda was 2375, the spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 800, and the basis was 125. The Shandong liquid caustic soda market was generally stable. [44] - **Trend and Reason**: The far - month valuation is suppressed. There is no significant supply pressure in the short - term, but the alumina industry's low - profit pattern may affect the long - term demand. [45] Pulp - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of pulp increased slightly, trading volume rose, and positions decreased. The basis and monthly spread decreased. The domestic and international prices of pulp showed different trends. The market was stable, and the demand improvement was limited. [49][50][51] - **Trend**: Sideways [48] Glass - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of glass decreased, the basis and monthly spread changed. The domestic float glass market price decreased slightly, and the trading atmosphere was general. [53] - **Trend**: Weak trend [53] Methanol - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of methanol increased slightly, trading volume and positions decreased. The basis decreased, and the monthly spread increased. The spot price of methanol in different regions changed, and the market was regionally adjusted. [56][58] - **Trend and Reason**: Sideways with pressure. There is fundamental pressure from high imports and production, but the valuation is moderately low, and there are macro - events for support. [58][59] Urea - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of urea increased slightly, trading volume and positions decreased. The basis and monthly spread changed. The factory and trader prices of urea in different regions changed. The enterprise inventory increased, and the market trading atmosphere was weak. [61][62] - **Trend and Reason**: Sideways in the short - term, weak trend in the medium - term. The export has limited impact on price due to high social inventory, and the domestic demand is weak. [62][63] Styrene - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of styrene decreased, the EB - BZ spread increased, and the profit of non - integrated and integrated production decreased. The market is expected to be in a short - term sideways pattern, and the downstream demand is not optimistic. [64][65] - **Trend**: Short - term negative feedback [64] Soda Ash - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of soda ash decreased, the basis and monthly spread changed. The domestic soda ash market was stable with oscillations, and the production decreased slightly. The downstream demand was stable, and it is expected to be weakly sideways in the short - term. [69] - **Trend**: Weak trend [70] LPG and Propylene - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of LPG and propylene changed slightly, trading volume and positions changed. The spreads of different regions changed. The start - up rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation decreased slightly. [72] - **Trend**: LPG's valuation is being repaired, and there are still macro - risks; propylene is in a short - term low - level sideways pattern. [72] PVC - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of PVC was 4699, the spot price in East China was 4600, the basis was - 99, and the 1 - 5 monthly spread was - 301. The PVC price oscillated weakly, the supply was expected to increase slowly, and the demand was stable. [79] - **Trend and Reason**: Weak trend. Affected by the trade war, the cost decreased, the supply was high, the domestic demand was weak, and the inventory was accumulating. [79] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil changed slightly, trading volume and positions decreased. The spot prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions changed slightly, and the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil was temporarily stable. [82] - **Trend**: Fuel oil is in a narrow - range sideways pattern with short - term weakness; low - sulfur fuel oil continues to be weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil. [82] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) increased, trading volume and positions changed. The freight rates of European and US - West routes increased, and the spot freight rates of different carriers were announced. [84] - **Trend**: The reality is better than expected, and it is relatively resistant to decline. [84]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures continued to be weak. The weakness in polyolefin prices was due to both the drag of crude oil and the need to digest spot goods after the long holiday. With the continuation of the China - US game, crude oil was under pressure and cost support weakened. In the short term, polyolefin prices generally fluctuated passively following the cost side, and market sentiment was cautious. However, after consecutive declines in chemicals, the decline rate might slow down [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Price Changes**: For linear LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6879, 6921, and 6952 respectively, with increases of 5, 14, and 21 compared to the day before, and corresponding increases of 0.07%, 0.20%, and 0.30%. For拉丝 PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6565, 6618, and 6650 respectively, with increases of 14, 15, and 17, and corresponding increases of 0.21%, 0.23%, and 0.26% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of linear LL for January, May, and September contracts were 218340, 20698, and 263 respectively, and the open interests were 562100, 61495, and 830 respectively, with changes of - 3312, - 750, and - 33. The trading volumes of拉丝 PP for January, May, and September contracts were 257663, 22344, and 831 respectively, and the open interests were 654849, 119507, and 4521 respectively, with changes of - 6902, 1181, and 333 [2] - **Spreads**: For linear LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 42, - 31, and 73 respectively, compared to previous values of - 33, - 24, and 57. For拉丝 PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 53, - 32, and 85 respectively, compared to previous values of - 52, - 30, and 82 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2269 yuan/ton, 6010 yuan/ton, 523 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6470 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, with some price changes compared to the previous values [2] - **Mid - Stream Spot**: The spot price ranges of linear LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6900 - 7500 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7100 - 7550 yuan/ton respectively. The spot price ranges of拉丝 PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6450 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6450 - 6550 yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - On Monday (October 20, 2025), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $57.52 per barrel, down $0.02 or 0.03% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $56.35 - $57.81. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $61.01 per barrel, down $0.28 or 0.46% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $60.07 - $61.55 [2]

Group 1: Futures Market - The total capital in China's futures market has surpassed 2 trillion yuan, reaching approximately 2.02 trillion yuan, marking a 24% increase from the end of 2024 [1] - As of October 9, 2025, the total client equity of futures companies is about 1.91 trillion yuan, also reflecting a 24% growth from the end of 2024 [1] - New monthly average futures for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene will be launched for trading on October 28, 2025 [1] Group 2: Smart Glasses Market - IDC forecasts that global shipments of smart glasses will exceed 40 million units by 2029, with China's market share expected to steadily increase [1] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the Chinese smart glasses market from 2024 to 2029 is projected to be 55.6%, the highest globally [1] Group 3: Silicon Market - The price of N-type polysilicon is reported between 50.6 to 55 yuan per kilogram, with a price index of 52.69 yuan per kilogram, indicating a stable market with limited transactions [1] - October's polysilicon production is expected to be around 133,500 tons, showing an increase compared to September, exceeding previous market expectations [1] Group 4: Corporate Developments - Apple is reportedly investigating issues related to Apple Music and Apple TV+ [2] - JD has updated vehicle data, revealing a high-strength cage design for its new car model, enhancing impact resistance by 18% [2] - Yushutech announced the release of the H2 bionic humanoid robot, which stands 180 cm tall and weighs 70 kg [2] Group 5: Financial Reports - Jiahuan Technology reported a 15.1% decline in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue down 10.57% [7] - Dayang Bio achieved a 56.12% increase in net profit year-on-year for the first three quarters, with revenue up 11.24% [8] - Weili Medical's net profit grew by 14.94% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with revenue increasing by 12.33% [9] - Yonghe Co. reported a significant 220.39% increase in net profit for the first three quarters, with revenue up 12.04% [10] - Jinli Permanent Magnet's net profit surged by 161.81% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with revenue growth of 7.16% [11] - Shanhua Pharmaceutical Auxiliary's net profit increased by 8.28% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with revenue growth of 8.09% [12] - Alloy Investment reported a 124.87% increase in net profit for the first three quarters, with revenue up 54.61% [13] - Chuanjinno's net profit grew by 175.61% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with revenue increasing by 27.57% [14] Group 6: Market Overview - The market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the ChiNext Index closing up 1.98% [15] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.74 trillion yuan, a decrease of 200.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day [15] - Various sectors showed activity, with coal and gas stocks performing well, while precious metals faced declines [15]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The soda ash futures market is in a weak and volatile stage, and the glass futures market is also showing a weak and volatile trend. The main contradiction in the current soda ash market is the imbalance between supply and demand, and the glass market is also affected by factors such as slow demand recovery and increased supply expectations [6][30] - For soda ash futures, it is recommended to wait and see in the medium - term, and expect the operating range of soda ash 2601 to be 1100 - 1250 this week. For glass futures, it is recommended to hold an empty - position and wait and see, and the market is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations in the short term [6][30] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Soda Ash Futures 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - The soda ash futures are in a volatile stage. The domestic soda ash market was stable to weak last week, with significant price drops in the northwest region. The main contradiction is the imbalance between supply and demand, with continuous supply pressure and weak demand. In the short term, the price may continue to be weakly volatile, but the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [6] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: Soda ash futures were weakly volatile last week. The weekly output was 77.69 tons, the operating rate dropped to 88.41%, and the total inventory increased to 165.98 tons. The overall supply was strong, and the demand was difficult to exceed expectations. It was expected that the operating range of soda ash 2601 was 1200 - 1350 [9] - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The domestic soda ash market continued the weak trend last week. It is expected that the price will still be weakly volatile in the short term, but the downward space is limited. The expected operating range of soda ash 2601 is 1100 - 1250 [10] 3. Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include soda ash's operating rate, output, light - weight and heavy - weight inventory, basis, and ammonia - soda production cost in North China (weekly data) [11][15][18] Glass Futures 1. Mid - line Market Analysis - The glass is in an oscillating trend. The domestic float glass market was generally weak last week. After the festival, the demand recovery was limited, the enterprise inventory pressure remained, and some manufacturers had difficulty in maintaining prices. The glass futures price declined unilaterally. It is recommended to hold an empty - position and wait and see [30] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: Float glass futures were oscillating and strengthening since September 28. The weekly output increased to 112.89 tons, the operating rate remained stable, the capacity utilization rate increased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. The market was supported by policies but the supply - demand contradiction was not resolved. It was expected that the operating range of glass 2601 was 1150 - 1300, and it was advisable to hold an empty - position and wait and see [33] - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The domestic float glass market was generally weak last week. The demand recovered slowly, the enterprise inventory pressure remained, and the supply increase expectation further suppressed the market. The futures also weakened, and it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [34] 3. Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include float glass's output, operating rate, production cost and gross profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, basis, and ending inventory (weekly data) [36][39][41]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of polyolefins continue to be weak, leading to a downward trend in prices. For PE, factors such as inventory accumulation, weak cost support from crude oil, and new device production contribute to the decline. For PP, cost - side weakness and supply - demand imbalances cause the downward movement of the market [1][2][3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6910元/吨（-8），PP主力合约收盘价为6595元/吨（-7），LL华北现货为6910元/吨（-60），LL华东现货为6950元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为6620元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为0元/吨（-52），LL华东基差为40元/吨（-42），PP华东基差为25元/吨（-13）[1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为83.9%（+1.9%），PP开工率为77.7%（+1.1%）[1] - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为452.3元/吨（-8.9），PP油制生产利润为 - 147.7元/吨（-8.9），PDH制PP生产利润为174.6元/吨（+64.2）[1] - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为 - 108.2元/吨（-80.0），PP进口利润为 - 554.0元/吨（-30.0），PP出口利润为23.6美元/吨（+3.7）[1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为35.6%（+2.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为52.9%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.3%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.7%（+0.5%）[1] Market Analysis - **PE**: After the holiday, the inventory of major plastic producers has accumulated significantly. The downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand, and the slow inventory digestion, weak cost support from crude oil, and new device production lead to the downward trend. In the future, supply is expected to increase with new device production and restart of shutdown devices, while demand improvement is limited [2] - **PP**: The weakening of the futures market is mainly due to the weakening of crude oil and propane prices. Supply is expected to increase with the restart of devices and new production, while demand fails to meet expectations during the peak season. The cost support is weak [3] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously short - hedge L and PP [4] - **Inter - period**: Reverse spread L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 [4] - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4]