热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜： （展大鹏，从业资格号：F3013795；交易咨询资格号：Z0013582） 隔夜内外铜价震荡走弱，国内精炼铜现货进口持续亏损状态。宏观方面，昨晚日本在提前选举预期叠加 扩张性财政叙事下，长期国债惨遭大量抛售，引起市场紧张情绪；而在国际市场特朗普声称必须拥有格 陵兰岛，威胁要在达沃斯高级别会议前对多个欧洲国家加征关税，其主张也引发欧盟主要国家的反噬， 使得美国再现股债汇三杀局面。库存方面，LME库存增加8875吨至156300吨；Comex库存增加4277吨至 496805吨；SHFE铜仓单下降4462吨至148193吨，BC铜下降25吨至11261吨。昨晚美金融市场动荡下避 险情绪增加，铜价随之调整。另外，当前国内消费进入淡季，铜消费转弱，累库力度强于近两年，这加 大了产业内的分歧，单从产业现状和基本面来去看也存在调整的需求，不过需要注意的是资金对铜的支 撑仍然存在，因此较难出现大幅回落行情，关注LME12000美元/盎司整数关口的支撑力度，春节前宜谨 慎看待，在此期间交易者可多关注海外局势的变化。 镍&不锈钢： （朱希，从业资格号：F0 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 作者： 师橙 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2026-01-20，沪铜主力合约开于 101020元/吨，收于 101230元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.05%，昨日夜盘 沪铜主力合约开于 101，020元/吨，收于 99，930 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上下降1.29%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货对2602合约报价贴水280至贴水20元/吨，均价贴水150元，较前一 日下跌30元。现货价格区间为100270-101180元/吨。期铜主力早盘先涨后跌，开盘自101380元冲高至 101700元后回落，两度下探100700元附近，尾盘收于101000元。隔月价差在260-190元/吨，当月进口亏 损约760-810元/吨。早间平水铜报贴水200-60元，中条山、豫光等报贴水200元，好铜货紧、贵溪报升水 30元。随后报价迅速下调，贵溪平水成交，金川大板调至贴水30元，鲁方、JCC报贴水90-60元。午后 交投清淡，报价进一步走弱，金川大板报贴水50元，平水铜报贴水280-80元，随后铁峰、中条山以贴水 260元成交。目前 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It points out the supply - demand situations, price trends, and investment strategies for each sector. For instance, in the financial derivatives sector, A - share markets are expected to be volatile, and investors are advised to control risks; in the commodity futures sector, different commodities face different supply - demand pressures and price trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed accordingly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Alumina**: The market is in a surplus situation with supply increasing and demand weakening. The price lacks upward momentum and is expected to fluctuate between 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Seasonal inventory accumulation is expected, and the price in January is under pressure. Strategies such as EG5 - 9 anti - arbitrage are recommended [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is strong before the Spring Festival, but the futures price has over - anticipated the increase. After the festival, the market is expected to be loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150 [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Driven by export growth, it attempts to break through resistance levels. Domestically, it may try to break through 8750 yuan and may briefly reach 9000 yuan [5]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts boost safe - haven demand, and the price is expected to be strong in the long - term. Hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average [6]. 3.2 Financial Futures 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: A - share major indices declined, and the four major stock index futures contracts also fell. The market is divided, and small and medium - sized indices corrected [7][8]. - **News**: The government will implement more active fiscal and monetary policies to promote economic growth and price recovery [8]. - **Funding**: Trading volume increased slightly, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal. - **Operation Suggestion**: Control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [9]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures rose, and bond yields generally declined [10][11]. - **Funding**: The central bank had a net capital withdrawal, and the inter - bank market liquidity was generally stable [11]. - **Policy**: The fiscal policy in 2026 will be more active to support economic stability [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market may fluctuate in the short - term. Adopt range - bound operations and pay attention to basis - widening strategies [12]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Geopolitical and trade conflicts led to the selling of US and Japanese bonds, a decline in the US dollar and US stocks, and the precious metals market remained strong [13][14][15]. - **Outlook**: Gold is expected to be strong in the long - term due to geopolitical and trade risks. Silver is expected to have a rising price center, and platinum and palladium will follow gold with narrowed fluctuations [15][16]. 3.4 Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index**: The SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index declined [17]. - **Fundamentals**: Container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [17]. - **Logic**: The futures price is under pressure from the downward trend of spot prices [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Expect short - term fluctuations [17]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - **Spot**: The spot discount widened, and the inventory continued to accumulate [18][21]. - **Macro**: The US is promoting negotiations on key minerals, which affects the tariff expectations for copper [19][22]. - **Supply**: The copper concentrate TC decreased, and the electrolytic copper production showed different trends in December and is expected to decline slightly in January [19]. - **Demand**: The downstream copper processing industry's operating rate was low, and the terminal demand was weak [20]. - **Logic**: The copper price may return to fundamental pricing, and attention should be paid to the CL premium and LME inventory changes [22]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe, and enter long positions after adjustment. Pay attention to the support at 97500 - 98500 [23]. 3.5.2 Alumina - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the inventory increased weekly by 7.9 tons [23][24]. - **Supply**: The production may decrease slightly in January due to some enterprises' losses [24]. - **Logic**: The market is in surplus, and the price lacks upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate between 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [25]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short at high prices within the range of 2600 - 2900 [25]. 3.5.3 Aluminum - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the transaction was cold [25]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to increase slightly, and the aluminum - water ratio may continue to decline [26]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing industry's operating rate was low, and the demand was weak [26]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely between 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton in the short - term [28]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Do not chase high prices. Enter long positions after a pullback within the range of 23000 - 25000 [29]. 3.5.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the market maintained rigid demand [29]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline slightly in January due to raw material shortages [29][30]. - **Demand**: The demand is in a mild recovery, but the terminal demand transmission is not smooth [30]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton in the short - term [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Long AD03 and short AL03 for arbitrage within the range of 22000 - 24000 [31]. 3.5.5 Zinc - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the transaction was general [32]. - **Supply**: The zinc ore supply is tight, and the refined zinc production decreased in December [33]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing industry's operating rate declined, and the demand was weak [34]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes [35][36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to the support at 23800, and hold long positions in the long - term. Hold cross - market anti - arbitrage [36]. 3.5.6 Tin - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the transaction was general [36]. - **Supply**: The tin ore and tin ingot import and export showed different trends in December [37]. - **Demand**: The downstream tin - soldering industry's operating rate declined, and the terminal demand was divided [38]. - **Logic**: The price is affected by market sentiment and is expected to be volatile. Consider low - buying after the sentiment stabilizes [39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe [39]. 3.5.7 Nickel - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the transaction was weak [39]. - **Supply**: The refined nickel production increased, and the market supply was sufficient [40]. - **Demand**: The demand in different sectors showed different trends, and the stainless - steel demand was general [40]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely between 138000 - 148000 [42]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range - bound operations [42]. 3.5.8 Stainless Steel - **Spot**: The spot price was stable, and the basis declined [43]. - **Raw Materials**: The prices of nickel ore and ferronickel increased, and the price of ferrochrome was firm [43]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to increase in January, and the supply is relatively loose [44]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 13800 - 14600, and attention should be paid to the ore news and downstream inventory [45]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Operate within the range of 13800 - 14600 [46]. 3.5.9 Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the market sentiment was boosted [46][47]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January due to pre - holiday maintenance [47]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to be optimistic, but the 1 - month demand may decline [48]. - **Logic**: The futures price increased sharply due to supply - side speculation. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [49]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe in the short - term, and enter long positions at low prices in the medium - term [50]. 3.5.10 Polysilicon - **Spot Price**: The spot price increased slightly [50]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January and the first quarter of 2026 [50]. - **Demand**: The demand may be improved by export demand, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased [51]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be supported at 48000 yuan/ton. Wait and observe and consider hedging [52]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe at high - level fluctuations [52]. 3.5.11 Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price**: The spot price was stable [53]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January and February [53]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to decline in January, and attention should be paid to the polysilicon production [53]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the demand changes [55]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe at low - level fluctuations and pay attention to the production cut [55]. 3.6 Ferrous Metals 3.6.1 Steel - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the basis of rebar strengthened [56]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost decreased, and the profit increased. The profit order is billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar [56]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline seasonally [56][57]. - **Demand**: The demand declined seasonally, and the post - holiday demand elasticity is limited [57]. - **Logic**: The steel price may decline due to cost reduction. The rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges [57]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Exit long positions on the steel - ore ratio at high prices and hold long positions on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread [57]. 3.6.2 Iron Ore - **Spot**: The spot price declined [58]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment decreased, and the port inventory increased [58][59]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand was weak, and the iron - making production declined [58]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the pre - holiday restocking [59]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range - bound operations within the range of 770 - 830 [60]. 3.6.3 Coking Coal - **Spot**: The Shanxi coal price increased more than it decreased, and the Mongolian coal price declined [61][63]. - **Supply**: The coal mine production increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased slightly [63]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand for replenishment increased, and the coking plant's profit declined [63]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150 [63]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - term weakness and operate within the range of 1000 - 1150 [63]. 3.6.4 Coke - **Spot**: The mainstream coke enterprises started to raise prices, and the port price declined [64][65]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the coking plant's profit was under pressure [64][65]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand increased, and the iron - making production increased [65]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1600 - 1750 [65]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - term weakness and operate within the range of 1600 - 1750 [65]. 3.6.5 Ferrosilicon - **Spot**: The spot price was stable [66]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost was stable, and the profit was negative [66]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the output was at a low level [66][67]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel industry and non - steel industries declined [67]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5300 - 5800, and attention should be paid to macro and policy factors [67]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe and pay attention to the price range of 5300 - 5800 [67]. 3.6.6 Manganese Silicon - **Spot**: The spot price declined slightly [69]. - **Cost**: The cost was relatively high, and the profit was negative [69]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the output was at a low level [70][71]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel industry declined, and the inventory was high [71]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5600 - 6000, and attention should be paid to macro and policy factors [71]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe and pay attention to the price range of 5600 - 6000 [71]. 3.7 Agricultural Products 3.7.1 Meal - **Spot Market**: The soybean meal price was stable, and the rapeseed meal price increased [72]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazilian soybean production and export are affected by weather and other factors [73]. - **Outlook**: The domestic soybean and soybean meal supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate around 2700 [74]. 3.7.2 Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price declined slightly [75]. - **Market Data**: The breeding profit improved, and the slaughter weight increased [75]. - **Outlook**: The market is in a game between supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [76]. 3.7.3 Corn - **Spot Price**: The price was stable in most areas [77]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain inventory in Guangzhou Port increased [78]. - **Outlook**: The price is supported by supply shortage and pre - holiday demand but limited by policy supply. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [79]. 3.7.4 Sugar - **Analysis**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is in the pre - holiday stocking period. The price is expected to be weak [80]. - **Fundamentals**: The Indian sugar production increased, and the Brazilian sugar production decreased [80]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe in the short - term [80]. 3.7.5 Cotton - **Analysis**: The ICE cotton price is under pressure, and the domestic cotton supply is sufficient. The price is expected to be adjusted [82]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton inspection progress is behind, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory is increasing [82]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to continue to be adjusted [82]. 3.7.6 Eggs - **Spot Market**: The price was stable in most areas, and the supply and demand were balanced [84]. - **Supply**: The inventory of laying hens is stable, and the inventory pressure is relieved [84]. - **Demand**: The trader's purchasing is cautious, and the inventory has increased [84]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [84]. 3.7.7 Oils - **Analysis**: The palm oil price is boosted by exports, and the soybean oil and rapeseed oil prices are affected by multiple factors. The prices are expected to fluctuate [85][87][88]. - **Fundamentals**: The Malaysian palm oil export and reference price change, and the US soybean oil supply is sufficient [86][88]. - **Outlook**: The palm oil may break through resistance levels, and the

瑞银贵金属策略师Joni Teves日前在接受采访时表示，多元化配置需求是本轮金价上行的核心驱动力， 机构投资者、零售投资者及各国央行均在增持黄金以应对宏观不确定性。她预计金价上半年仍有上攻动 能，若市场对美联储独立性的担忧持续升温，金价在上半年有望冲击5000美元/盎司关口。白银则受益 于金价上涨的带动及自身供需缺口收窄，今年或挑战100美元/盎司。铜市场在能源转型需求拉动下，供 需格局趋紧，价格中枢有望抬升。 黄金及贵金属相关港股： 紫金黄金国际(02259)、赤峰黄金(06693)、山东黄金(01787)、招金矿业（01818）、灵宝黄金（03330)、 潼关黄金（00340）、中国黄金国际（02099）、中国白银集团(00815)、珠峰黄金(01815)等。 智通财经APP获悉，波兰央行(NBP)当地时间周二表示，已批准一项购买多达150吨黄金的计划，此举将 使该国的黄金储备总量增加到700吨。 波兰央行在一份声明中称："这将使波兰跻身全球黄金储备量最大的前10个国家之列。"波兰央行行长 Adam Glapinsk上周宣布，他希望央行管理委员会将黄金持有量上限从截至12月31日的550吨提高到700 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Copper experienced a decline of 2.01% in stock price on January 20, with a trading volume of 688 million yuan and a market capitalization of 42.958 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 20, Yunnan Copper's stock price was 21.44 yuan per share, with a year-to-date increase of 4.53% [1] - Over the last five trading days, the stock has decreased by 2.90%, while it has increased by 20.65% over the last 20 days and 15.33% over the last 60 days [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Yunnan Copper achieved a revenue of 137.743 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.73% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 1.551 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.91% [2] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of January 10, the number of shareholders for Yunnan Copper was 193,700, an increase of 0.78% from the previous period [2] - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder was 10,342, which decreased by 0.77% compared to the previous period [2] Group 4: Dividend and Institutional Holdings - Yunnan Copper has distributed a total of 4.019 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.944 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3] - As of September 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the third-largest circulating shareholder, holding 42.9042 million shares, an increase of 9.8413 million shares from the previous period [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the accelerating investment in the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by a combination of the "AI leap" and the "century change" in global order, suggesting a super cycle for non-ferrous metals [1] - The non-ferrous ETF Huabao (159876) has seen significant net subscriptions, with over 31 million shares purchased in real-time and a total of 376 million yuan in the last five days, indicating strong market interest [1] - Historical patterns show that each super copper cycle corresponds with a strong macro narrative, and the current cycle is expected to last until at least 2026, influenced by factors such as the recovery of the US dollar credit and strategic stockpiling [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous ETF Huabao (159876) and its linked fund (017140) cover a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better capture of the overall sector's beta performance [2] - As of January 19, the latest scale of the non-ferrous ETF Huabao (159876) reached 1.626 billion yuan, setting a new historical high and making it the largest ETF tracking the China Nonferrous Metals Index in the market [2]

1月16日晚，北方稀土披露2025年度业绩预增公告。公告显示，经公司财务部门初步测算，预计2025年 度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为21.76亿元到23.56亿元，同比增长116.67%至134.60%。公司预 计，2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为19.6亿元至21.4亿元，同比增长 117.46%到137.43%。作为全球最大的稀土企业集团和产业基地，北方稀土2025年业绩翻倍，成为稀土 行业高质量发展的缩影。 中信证券认为，全球稀土资源战略地位持续提升，稀土产业进入高质量发展新时代。供给层面，配额管 制叠加管制政策，刚性逻辑或持续加强；需求层面，新能源汽车、人形机器人和低空经济等新兴领域有 望成为需求长期高速增长的核心驱动，预计2026年起全球稀土供需缺口或持续扩大，稀土价格或稳中有 进，产业链盈利能力或持续提升。 截至2026年1月20日 10:18，有色金属ETF(512400)盘中换手3.28%，成交持续放量达11.47亿元。截至1月 19日，有色金属ETF(512400)近11天获得连续资金净流入。 消息面上，1月19日，国际黄金市场迎来历史性突破，现货黄金日内大 ...

Core Viewpoint - BHP maintains its annual production forecast for iron ore while experiencing a slight increase in production and adjusting its copper production expectations upward [1] Group 1: Iron Ore Production - In the second fiscal quarter, BHP produced 69.7 million tons of iron ore, a 5% increase compared to the same period last year [1] - The company reaffirmed its annual iron ore production forecast, maintaining it between 284 million to 296 million tons [1] - The actual price of iron ore has slightly risen to $84.71 per ton [1] Group 2: Copper Production - Copper production decreased by 4% to 490,500 tons [1] - BHP has raised the lower end of its copper production forecast for the fiscal year ending June 30, now expecting production between 1.9 million to 2 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 1.8 million to 2 million tons [1] - The adjustment in copper production expectations is attributed to strong operational performance from its copper mining assets [1] Group 3: Potash and Cost Projections - BHP's Jansen project is a significant source of potash, expected to commence production by mid-2027 [1] - The company has indicated that costs will rise again to $8.4 billion, which is $1 billion higher than the previously adjusted upper limit announced in July [1]

Core Viewpoint - BHP maintains its annual production forecast for iron ore while reporting a 5% year-on-year increase in iron ore production for the second fiscal quarter, despite a decline in copper production [1] Group 1: Iron Ore Production - BHP produced 69.7 million tons of iron ore in the second fiscal quarter, a 5% increase compared to the same period last year [1] - The company reaffirmed its annual iron ore production forecast, maintaining it between 284 million to 296 million tons [1] - The actual price of iron ore slightly increased to $84.71 per ton [1] Group 2: Copper Production - Copper production decreased by 4% to 490,500 tons [1] - BHP raised the lower end of its copper production forecast for the fiscal year ending June 30, now expecting production between 1.9 million to 2 million tons, up from the previous forecast of 1.8 million to 2 million tons [1] - The adjustment in copper production expectations is attributed to strong operational performance from its copper mining assets [1] Group 3: Potash and Future Growth - BHP's Jansen project is a significant source of potash, expected to commence production by mid-2027 [1] - The company indicated that costs will rise again to $8.4 billion, which is $1 billion higher than the previously announced upper limit of cost range in July [1]

Core Viewpoint - BHP Group reported record iron ore production for the first half of the fiscal year ending December 31, with a total output of 146.6 million tons, a 1% increase year-over-year [1][2]. Production Performance - In the December quarter, iron ore production reached 76.3 million tons, up from 70.2 million tons in the September quarter [3][7]. - The company maintained its full-year iron ore production forecast at 284 million to 296 million tons, indicating a strong start to the typically rainy third quarter [3][7]. - BHP raised the lower end of its copper production forecast to between 1.9 million and 2 million tons, slightly above the previous estimate of 1.8 million to 2 million tons, due to strong operational performance from its copper assets [3][7]. Project Cost Updates - BHP announced a 20% increase in the estimated total investment for its Jansen potash project in Canada, raising the range from $7 billion to $7.4 billion to $8.4 billion [2][4]. - The cost increase reflects previously unaccounted construction hours and material usage, with the initial investment cost approved in August 2021 being $5.7 billion [4][8]. Upcoming Financial Reporting - BHP is scheduled to release its half-year financial report on February 17 [4][8].