1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the Middle East war situation, it is expected that short - term news factors will still dominate the operation of the domestic methanol market. If the Iran war ends in the short term, international oil prices will correct, and there is a possibility of a decline in inland methanol; if the war expands and escalates, international oil prices are expected to break through and rise, and inland methanol is expected to run strongly under the influence of sentiment. In the port area, the petrochemical industry has more obvious advantages under the supply - cut crisis, and the support for the rise of methanol comes more from inventory reduction, sentiment, and chemical resonance. It is expected that the methanol market will fluctuate at a high level this week, and the price of methanol is expected to fluctuate strongly. MA2605 is expected to run in the range of 2720 - 2900 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2605 are affected by the Middle East war situation. The procurement attitude of some traditional downstream users towards high - priced raw materials is cautious, and upstream methanol enterprises have a certain inventory. The port methanol is supported by factors such as inventory reduction, sentiment, and chemical resonance. The basis is 50, with the spot at a premium to the futures. As of March 12, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports decreased by 113,700 tons, and the total available circulating sources in coastal areas decreased by 41,800 tons. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the average line. The main position is net long, and it has changed from short to long. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 running in the range of 2720 - 2900 [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: Some devices have stopped or reduced their loads; the methanol production in Iran is at a low level, and the methanol imports in February are expected to continue to shrink; the methanol factories in the production areas have actively reduced their inventories, and the current inventory is not large, and some enterprises even limit sales; some downstream users continue to stock up before the Spring Festival [6]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The domestic methanol production is at a high level, and there is no shortage of supply; as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream industries such as formaldehyde will gradually stop production and take holidays, weakening the demand for raw materials; the main olefin devices in the port area have stopped, and the local demand has weakened significantly; most downstream users have completed their pre - holiday stocking, and the phased demand has decreased [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 689 yuan/ton (unchanged), CFR China Main Port is 381 US dollars/ton (up 60 US dollars/ton), the import cost is 3216 yuan/ton (up 492 yuan/ton), CFR Southeast Asia is 512 US dollars/ton (up 55 US dollars/ton), and the prices in different domestic regions have different changes. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract is 2805 yuan/ton (up 79 yuan/ton), the number of registered warrants is 11,513 (up 1180), and the number of effective forecasts is 147 (down 1180). The basis is 20 yuan/ton (down 69 yuan/ton), the import spread is 411 yuan/ton (up 413 yuan/ton), and there are also corresponding changes in other spreads [8]. - **Price Changes of Domestic Methanol**: From March 6th to March 13th, the prices of methanol in Jiangsu, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Fujian have increased, with increases of 11.66%, 5.41%, 7.87%, and 12.65% respectively, while the price in Shandong has remained unchanged [9]. - **Methanol Basis**: From March 6th to March 13th, the spot price increased by 11.66%, the futures price increased by 8.47%, and the basis changed from - 56 to 20 [11]. - **Production Profits of Different Methanol Processes**: From March 6th to March 13th, the profit of coal - based methanol increased by 203 yuan/ton, the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol increased by 512 yuan/ton [22]. - **Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load**: The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, and the load in the northwest region decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [23]. - **External Methanol Prices and Spreads**: From March 6th to March 13th, CFR China increased by 23.30% to 381 US dollars/ton, CFR Southeast Asia increased by 27.72% to 511.5 US dollars/ton, and the spread between them changed from - 91.5 to - 130.5 US dollars/ton [26]. - **Methanol Import Spreads**: From March 6th to March 13th, the spot price increased by 11.66%, the import cost increased by 22.38%, and the import spread changed from - 97 to - 391 yuan/ton [29]. - **Prices of Traditional Methanol Downstream Products**: From March 6th to March 13th, the price of formaldehyde remained unchanged, the price of dimethyl ether remained unchanged, and the price of acetic acid increased by 8.47% [32]. - **Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Methanol Downstream Products**: The production profit of formaldehyde decreased by 53 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.01%; the production profit of dimethyl ether decreased by 170 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 1.45%; the production profit of acetic acid increased by 88 yuan/ton, and the load decreased by 1.29%; the production profit of MTO decreased by 944 yuan/ton, and the load decreased by 2.27% [37][40][45][50]. - **Methanol Port Inventory**: As of March 13th, the inventory in the East China port was 548,000 tons (down 72,000 tons), and the inventory in the South China port was 332,600 tons (down 41,700 tons) [8]. - **Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: From March 6th to March 13th, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 22.53% to 11,513, and the number of effective forecasts remained at 147 [56]. - **Methanol Balance Sheet**: It shows the production, demand, import, inventory, and supply - demand difference of methanol from November 2022 to October 2024 [58]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance**: Multiple domestic methanol enterprises in different regions such as the Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast are in a state of maintenance, including planned maintenance, unplanned maintenance, and temporary shutdown due to faults or other reasons [59]. - **Overseas Methanol Device Operation**: Some methanol devices in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Qatar, and other countries and regions are in different states of operation, including normal operation, restarting, and maintenance [60]. - **Olefin Device Operation**: Olefin devices in different regions such as the Northwest, East, Central, Shandong, and Northeast are in different states of operation, including normal operation, maintenance, and shutdown [61].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-03-16燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 近期多空分析 利多： 利空： 1.特朗普政府再现TACO 2.上游端原油承压受挫 行情驱动：供应端受地缘风险影响与需求中性共振 风险点：中东迅速停火 1. 中东局势动荡 2. 海峡通行不畅 每日期货行情 1、基本面：低硫方面，中东战争爆发时，市场最初预期高硫燃料油市场会比低硫燃料油受到更大影响。但随着运费飙 升关闭了来自欧洲地区的套利窗口，低硫燃料油供应短缺的担忧加剧；高硫方面，由于霍尔木兹海峡封锁限制了来自中 东地区的燃料油供应，也加剧了近期市场对供应中断的担忧；偏多 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油736.65 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analyses, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on March 16th, 2026, and the overall trends in March 2026. For example, stock index futures will fluctuate and consolidate, while crude oil, fuel oil, bitumen, polypropylene, styrene, PX, PVC, methanol, and ethylene glycol futures will fluctuate with an upward bias. Gold, rebar, and iron ore futures will fluctuate with a downward bias, and silver, platinum, and palladium futures will fluctuate weakly [1][2]. - The ongoing Middle - East conflict, especially the situation in Iran, has significantly affected the global capital and commodity markets. It has led to increased volatility in the global capital market, re - allocation of funds, and potential supply shortages in the energy market, pushing up oil prices [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News and Trading Tips - The "15th Five - Year Plan" was officially released on March 13th, 2026, with 18 chapters, 16 major strategic tasks, and 109 major projects. It may increase the special additional deduction standard for individual income tax [7]. - From March 14th - 17th, Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to France for the sixth round of China - US economic and trade consultations. China will take necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests [7]. - The State Council executive meeting discussed and passed the "Division of Key Work in 2026" and plans to establish a negative list management mechanism for local fiscal subsidies [8]. - The General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Promoting the Construction of the Professional Social Work Personnel Team" [8]. - In the first two months of this year, RMB loans increased by 5.61 trillion yuan, and the increment of social financing scale was 9.6 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 316.2 billion yuan. In February, the average interest rates of new corporate and personal housing loans were about 3.1% [8]. - The central bank will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation on March 16th, a reduction of 100 billion yuan compared to the maturity amount [9]. - In January - February, consumption and investment data rebounded. Commodity consumption and service consumption increased by 5.7% and 1.1% year - on - year respectively. Investment in advanced manufacturing and artificial intelligence increased significantly [9]. - On March 15th, the Supreme People's Court released 6 typical cases of consumer rights protection, focusing on punishing food safety violations, regulating online platform operations, etc. [9]. - The "3·15" Gala exposed seven major irregularities, and relevant enterprises responded or took corrective actions. The State Administration for Market Regulation launched an emergency response mechanism [10]. - US President Trump claimed that the US would launch a "violent air strike" on Iran next week. Iran stated that it would continue to defend itself. The situation in the Middle East has pushed up oil prices and affected the global energy market [10][12]. - The US 1 - month core PCE increased by 3.1% year - on - year, and the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged next week. If inflation persists, the time for resuming interest rate cuts may be postponed [11]. - The revised data shows that the US real GDP annualized quarterly rate in the fourth quarter of last year increased by 0.7%, a significant downward revision from the initial value of 1.4%. The January durable goods orders were flat month - on - month, far lower than the expected 1.1% increase [12]. - The preliminary value of the US March Michigan Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 55.5, a three - month low. Consumers expect prices to rise by 3.4% in the next year, lower than the expected 3.7% [12]. - The Japanese 2026 budget bill passed the House of Representatives and will be sent to the Senate for review. The total budget scale exceeds 122 trillion yen, and the defense budget exceeds 9 trillion yen for the first time [14]. - In January, the eurozone industrial output decreased by 1.5% month - on - month, the lowest level since December 2024 [14]. 3.2 Commodity Futures - related Information - On March 13th, the main contracts of US crude oil and Brent crude oil rose. Market expectations of reduced oil supply due to the Iran conflict and increased net long positions of speculators supported the rise in oil prices [14]. - The US Treasury temporarily relaxed sanctions on Russian oil to deal with the impact of the blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. About 124 million barrels of Russian oil are currently at sea [15]. - Saudi Arabia reduced its crude oil production by about 2 million barrels per day to about 8 million barrels per day, and the total production cut of Gulf oil - producing countries has reached at least 10 million barrels per day [15]. - The Japanese government will release about 80 million barrels of national and private strategic oil reserves, in line with the IEA's 400 - million - barrel emergency reserve release plan [15]. - On March 13th, international precious metal futures generally fell. The delay of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, strong US labor market, and slowdown of inflation decline led to the rise of the US dollar and US bond yields, dragging down precious metal prices [15]. - On March 13th, London base metals fell across the board [16]. - The escalating Middle - East conflict has caused "widespread force majeure" in the global chemical industry, with force majeure declarations spreading across regions and product categories [16]. - From March 1st to the present, only 77 ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz, compared with 1229 ships in the same period last year [17]. - On March 13th, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar fell, and the US dollar index rose, with most non - US currencies falling [17]. 3.3 Futures Market Analysis and Forecast 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - On March 13th, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures all opened slightly lower, rebounded but faced resistance and then declined. They showed a weak and volatile trend [18][19]. - It is expected that in March 2026, the main continuous contracts of stock index futures will fluctuate weakly and widely. On March 16th, they will fluctuate and consolidate [23][24]. 3.3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On March 13th, the main contracts of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures opened slightly lower, rebounded but faced resistance and then declined, showing a weak and volatile trend. It is expected that on March 16th, they will continue to fluctuate weakly [41][43][44][45]. 3.3.3 Precious Metal Futures - On March 13th, the main contracts of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures all showed a downward trend. It is expected that in March 2026, the main continuous contracts of these precious metal futures will generally fluctuate weakly. On March 16th, they will continue to show a weak - fluctuating trend [47][52][56][61]. 3.3.4 Base Metal Futures - On March 13th, the main contracts of copper, zinc, nickel, and tin futures showed a downward trend, while the main contracts of aluminum and alumina futures showed different trends. It is expected that in March 2026, the main continuous contracts of these base metal futures will have different trends, and on March 16th, they will show corresponding trends [65][70][75][80][84][89]. 3.3.5 Other Commodity Futures - On March 13th, the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, caustic soda, crude oil, fuel oil, bitumen, linear low - density polyethylene, polypropylene, styrene, PTA, p - xylene, PVC, methanol, ethylene glycol, soybean meal, and palm oil futures showed different trends. It is expected that in March 2026 and on March 16th, they will show corresponding trends, with some expected to reach new highs [100][103][106][110][113][118][123][130][137][138][152][156][159][163][168][171][173].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term view of going long on the economy, and recommend allocating long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [1] - For treasury bond futures, the short - term trend is unclear, so it is recommended to wait and see; in the medium - to - long - term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On March 13, the four major A - share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.82% to 4095.45 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.65% to 14280.78 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.22% to 3310.28 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 0.72% to 1373.64 points. Market trading volume was 24,173 billion yuan, a decrease of 433 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - In terms of industry sectors, food and beverage (+0.87%), building decoration (+0.6%), and banks (+0.38%) performed well; comprehensive (-4.19%), non - ferrous metals (-2.7%), and computers (-2.7%) performed mediocrely [1] - From the perspective of market strength, IF>IH>IC>IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,502/159/3,824 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale investor, and retail funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 157, - 244, 2, and 399 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +89, +22, - 105, and - 5 billion yuan respectively [1] - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 96.69, 74.8, 25.94, and 1.65 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 11.77%, - 9.08%, - 5.56%, and - 0.56% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 33%, 26%, 22%, and 44% respectively [1] - The performance details of various stock index futures contracts are shown in Table 1, including information such as price, trading volume, open interest, and basis [4] (2) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On March 13, the treasury bond futures trended weakly. Among the active contracts, TS and TF remained flat, T fell 0.07%, and TL fell 0.25% [2] - For the current active 2606 contract, the CTD bond of the 2 - year treasury bond futures was 250024.IB, with a yield change of - 1bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.033, and an IRR of 1.33%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year treasury bond futures was 250014.IB, with a yield change of +0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.01, and an IRR of 1.43%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year treasury bond futures was 250025.IB, with a yield change of +1.15bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.036, and an IRR of 1.33%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year treasury bond futures was 210014.IB, with a yield change of +2bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.001, and an IRR of 1.47% [2] - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 375 billion yuan and withdrew 448 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 73 billion yuan [2] - The performance details of various treasury bond futures contracts are shown in Table 2, including information such as price, trading volume, open interest, and net basis [6] (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that at the beginning of March, the prosperity of various sectors declined slightly [9] - Based on the changes in the meso - level data of each module compared with the same period in the past five years (the month - on - month change of the year - on - year data), a scoring system is used to measure the prosperity. Positive scores indicate an improvement in prosperity, negative scores indicate a decline, and zero scores indicate little change [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the US-Iran conflict, the chemical sector has risen strongly. The urea futures price has increased, and the spot price has also risen. Although the weekly urea production load has slightly decreased, the overall market supply is still at a relatively high level. With the approaching of the spring plowing season, the agricultural fertilizer demand continues to increase, the compound fertilizer production capacity operation rate has increased, and the raw material replenishment has increased the demand for urea. The inventory level of urea enterprises is relatively low year-on-year, and the inventory reduction is smooth. Affected by the US-Iran incident, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Changes - The urea futures price opened higher and then fell back, but the price center continued to move up. On March 13, the closing price of the urea 2605 contract was 1,889 yuan/ton, an increase of 59 yuan/ton or 3.22% from the previous week. The highest price during the period was 1,954 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 1,831 yuan/ton. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1,852 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton or 1.7% from the previous week [2][5]. - The main urea basis weakened compared with the previous week. On March 13, the main basis in the Henan market was -37 yuan/ton, and the weekly basis operation range was (-63) - (-13) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of urea fluctuated narrowly. On March 13, the 5 - 9 spread was -23 yuan/ton, and the weekly operation range was (-28) - (-13) yuan/ton [2][9]. Fundamental Changes Supply - The urea production load rate was 93.23%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the production load rate of gas - based enterprises was 83.5%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average urea output was 219,700 tons. Some installations in regions such as Henan and Shandong were under maintenance or short - stopped, and the production load decreased slightly. Although some installations will be adjusted next week, the overall market supply level is still relatively high [2][12]. Cost - The price of anthracite coal fluctuated slightly. As of March 12, the含税 price of anthracite washed small pieces with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 880 - 930 yuan/ton; the含税 price of anthracite washed lumps with S1 - 1.5 in Yangquan, Shanxi was 780 - 840 yuan/ton, both of which were flat compared with the closing price of the previous week [2][15]. Demand - Agricultural demand: As the temperature warms up, the demand for wheat green - turning fertilizer is gradually released. The average pre - collection of major urea production enterprises is 6.5 days, and the weekly production and sales rate of urea enterprises is 101.3% [18]. - Industrial demand: The compound fertilizer enterprise production capacity operation rate was 45.56%, an increase of 8.54 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 748,900 tons, a decrease of 1.75 percentage points from the previous week. The melamine enterprise production load rate was 56.96%, an increase of 7.56 percentage points from the previous week, and the weekly output was 31,980 tons. It is expected that the production load rate of the melamine industry will gradually increase to over 60% next week. The demand support in the panel market has weakened [22][25][26]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 721,000 tons, a decrease of 149,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 439,000 tons compared with the same period last year. Urea port inventory was 269,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 8,055, totaling 161,100 tons, an increase of 2,369 receipts or 47,380 tons compared with the same period last year [2][29]. Main Operating Logic - Although the weekly production load has slightly decreased, the overall market supply level is still relatively high. The agricultural fertilizer procurement in various regions, the increase in the compound fertilizer production capacity operation rate, and the increase in raw material replenishment support the demand for urea. The inventory level of urea enterprises is relatively low year - on - year, and the inventory reduction is smooth. Affected by the US - Iran incident, the price fluctuates strongly [2]. Key Points to Watch - The operation of compound fertilizer production, the reduction and maintenance of urea installations, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the price changes of various commodities and financial products, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the fundamentals and market conditions of each product. It also mentions the impact of macro - events such as geopolitical conflicts and economic data releases on the market, and suggests that investors should pay attention to risk control and short - term trading strategies in the face of market uncertainties [4][7][8][11][18][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry - **Price Changes**: On March 16, 2026, among chemical products, crude oil had the largest increase with a rise of 4.795% to 786.80, while glass decreased by 0.264% to 1,132.00. Other products such as plastic, polypropylene PP, (PTA), PVC, etc. also showed different degrees of price changes [4]. 3.2 Agricultural Products - **Price Changes**: On March 16, 2026, among agricultural products, palm oil had a relatively large increase of 1.147% to 9,880.00, while rapeseed meal decreased by 2.431% to 2,528.00 [4]. 3.3 Macro - news - **Diplomatic and Political Events**: At the press conference of the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress on March 8, Foreign Minister Wang Yi made statements on Sino - US relations, the Taiwan issue, the Iranian situation, and Sino - Japanese relations. This week, there are many important events in the global market, including the closing of national conferences in China, the release of economic data, corporate earnings announcements, and important meetings [7]. - **AI Security and Energy Market**: The open - source AI agent OpenClaw has security risks. On March 9, the US oil futures contract soared due to the near - suspension of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, which led to a chain reaction of production cuts in Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries. The US Energy Secretary said that the resumption of normal shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is approaching, and the price increase is mainly due to the uncertainty of the Iranian conflict [8][9]. 3.4 Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.4.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: On March 13, the sugar futures price rose slightly. The supply side has both pressure and cost support. It is recommended to go long at low prices, with the upper pressure at around 5,500 yuan and the short - term support at 5,400 yuan [11]. - **Corn**: On March 13, the corn futures price fell. The supply side may face pressure from the concentrated listing of damp grain, while the demand side has support from inventory replenishment. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the support at around 2,370 yuan [11]. - **Peanut**: On March 13, the peanut futures price rose. The supply side is supported by a significant reduction in imports, and the demand side has stable purchasing willingness from oil mills. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at around 8,200 yuan [11]. - **Pig**: The national average price of live pigs is weak. The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, and the price is expected to stabilize over the weekend [11]. - **Egg**: The national egg spot price is stable and strong. The futures market is expected to be short - term bullish, and it is recommended to go long on dips [13]. - **Jujube**: The price of Cangzhou's special - grade jujube is stable. The futures market is recommended to sell high and buy low [13]. - **Cotton**: On March 13, the cotton futures price fell. The supply and demand situation is relatively balanced, and the price is in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at around 15,365 yuan and the pressure at 15,765 yuan [13]. 3.4.2 Energy and Chemical Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda in the East China market is strong. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas device dynamics, export orders, inventory changes, and device maintenance progress, and beware of price corrections [12][13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal and coke is sufficient, and the demand is expected to increase. The short - term trend is strong, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly on a weekly basis [13]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The price of double - offset paper is in a narrow - range shock. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or trade within the range [13][15]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is stable and weak. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is necessary to beware of price corrections and pay attention to the impact of policies and demand follow - up [15]. 3.4.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver are in a high - level shock. The delay of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the strong labor market in the US, and the slowdown of inflation decline have dragged down the precious - metal market [15]. - **Copper and Aluminum**: The prices of copper and aluminum are affected by the Middle - East situation and the rise of crude oil prices. The aluminum price is relatively strongly supported by fundamentals, and the copper - aluminum price ratio may continue to return [15]. - **Alumina**: The supply and demand of alumina have not changed much. It is recommended to take a long - position approach at low prices, and pay attention to the commissioning progress of new production capacity in Guangxi [15][17]. - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil)**: The inventory of steel products is expected to peak in the next one to two weeks, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. It is recommended to go long at low prices within the range [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply and demand of ferroalloys have increased. The price rebound is mainly due to the energy premium caused by the Middle - East situation. It is recommended to take a long - position approach on dips, but not to chase high prices [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate has fallen. The supply side has uncertainties, and the demand side is resilient. It is necessary to pay attention to the support at around 150,000 yuan [17]. 3.4.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On March 13, the A - share market declined. Different stock - index options showed different trends in terms of trading volume, open interest, and implied volatility. Trend investors can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can short volatility by selling straddles [18]. - **Stock Index**: The market risk preference has decreased. The market shows a structured trend, and it is recommended to conduct short - term rolling operations. It is necessary to pay attention to the development of the Middle - East situation and the low - volume signal of mainstream broad - based ETFs [18][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic situation is bearish, and the Shanghai copper futures are expected to remain weak next week [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - This week, the Shanghai copper futures fluctuated weakly, with downstream consumption recovering and the spot premium of copper rising [10][14] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $4.34 per ton week-on-week to -$60.39 per ton, continuing to decline [16] - The port inventory of copper concentrate was 404,000 tons this week, a decrease of 81,000 tons week-on-week [19] - The spread between refined and scrap copper fluctuated this week [22] - The domestic electrolytic copper production in March is expected to be nearly 1.2 million tons, reaching a new high, with a month-on-month increase of 4.62% and a year-on-year increase of 6.51% [24] - The cumulative import of unwrought copper and copper products from January to February was 700,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.1% [27] - The spot inventory of electrolytic copper decreased this week, but it is still higher year-on-year, while the bonded area inventory increased slightly [29] - The LME inventory increased and the COMEX inventory decreased this week [30] - The operating rate of refined copper rods increased week-on-week, driven by previous orders, with inventory reduction and rising purchasing sentiment [32] - The production and sales of automobiles from January to February decreased year-on-year, and the new energy vehicle sales also decreased year-on-year [34] - The export of components was affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East [36] - The total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in March decreased by 4% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year [39] Macroeconomic Data - China's new social financing in February was 2.38 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 900 billion yuan, and M2 increased by 9% year-on-year [42] - US inflation cooled, with the CPI rising 2.4% year-on-year and the core CPI rising 2.5% year-on-year in February [45] - The market no longer expects the Fed to cut interest rates this year [46]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: March 16, 2026 [2] - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] - Contact: 0575 - 85226759 [3] Core Views - LLDPE: The overall fundamentals are bullish, with the main contract's disk expected to continue strengthening. Due to the Iran situation disturbing oil prices, the external crude oil is strong, inventory is neutral, and downstream demand is recovering. It is expected that PE will show a strong trend today [4]. - PP: The overall fundamentals are bullish, with the main contract's disk expected to continue strengthening. Affected by the Iran situation and strong external crude oil, with neutral inventory and recovering downstream demand, it is expected that PP will show a strong trend today [7]. Industry Analysis LLDPE - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Iran situation in the Middle East remains unresolved, the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is basically interrupted, and many countries confirm to release strategic reserves, leading to a continuous strong external crude oil. In terms of supply and demand, the spring plowing demand for agricultural films has started, but high - priced raw materials have led to many downstream enterprises waiting and less transactions. Packaging films are mainly for rigid demand, with limited improvement. The starting rate of pipes remains low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 8250 (-200) [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -166, with a premium/discount ratio of -2.0%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 62.5 tons (+3.1), neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Leverage and Risk**: Bullish factors include cost support and significant crude oil fluctuations; bearish factors are mainly geopolitical issues. The main risk points are significant crude oil fluctuations and international policies [6]. PP - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Iran situation in the Middle East remains unresolved, the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is basically interrupted, and many countries confirm to release strategic reserves, leading to a continuous strong external crude oil. In terms of supply and demand, multiple PDH units are shut down for maintenance due to raw material issues. The downstream demand for plastic weaving has increased, but enterprises are cautious in production due to poor profits. The starting rate of bopp has decreased abnormally, and downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 8650 (+0) [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is 47, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.5%, which is bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 65.8 tons (+0.3), neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Leverage and Risk**: Bullish factors include cost support and significant crude oil fluctuations; bearish factors are mainly geopolitical issues. The main risk points are significant crude oil fluctuations and international policy games [8]. Market Data LLDPE | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product Price | 8250, change: -200 [9] | | LL Import US Dollar Price | 856, change: 0 [9] | | LL Import Conversion Price | 7226, change: 0 [9] | | LL Import Price Difference | 1024, change: -200 [9] | | 05 Contract Price | 8416, change: 180 [9] | | L01 Contract Price | 7866, change: 147 [9] | | L05 Contract Price | 8416, change: 180 [9] | | L09 Contract Price | 8145, change: 211 [9] | | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | 7901, change: -200 [9] | | PE Comprehensive Factory Warehouse Inventory | 62.5 [9] | | PE Social Inventory | 66.3 [9] | PP | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product Price | 8650, change: 0 [9] | | PP Import US Dollar Price | 1180, change: 0 [9] | | PP Import Conversion Price | 9904, change: 0 [9] | | PP Import Price Difference | -1254, change: 0 [9] | | 05 Contract Price | 8603, change: 300 [9] | | PP01 Contract Price | 7646, change: 198 [9] | | PP05 Contract Price | 8603, change: 300 [9] | | PP09 Contract Price | 8068, change: 317 [9] | | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | 19427, change: -240 [9] | | PP Comprehensive Factory Warehouse Inventory | 65.8 [9] | | PP Social Inventory | 32.4 [9] | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Polyethylene | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PE Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 1869.5 | 1599.84 | 1379.72 | 46.3% | 2979.56 | 39.55 | 2979.56 | | | 2019 | | 1964.5 | 5.1% | 1765.08 | 1638.16 | 48.1% | 3403.24 | 36.61 | 3406.18 | 14.3% | | 2020 | | 2314.5 | 17.8% | 2008.47 | 1828.16 | 47.7% | 3836.63 | 37.83 | 3835.41 | 12.6% | | 2021 | | 2754.5 | 19.0% | 2328.34 | 1407.76 | 37.7% | 3736.1 | 37.57 | 3736.36 | -2.6% | | 2022 | | 2929.5 | 6.4% | 2532.19 | 1274.55 | 33.5% | 3806.74 | 38.93 | 3805.38 | 1.8% | | 2023 | | 3189.5 | 8.9% | 2807.37 | 1264.72 | 31.1% | 4072.09 | 41.43 | 4069.59 | 6.9% | | 2024 | | 3584.5 | 12.4% | 2773.8 | 1360.32 | 32.9% | 4134.12 | 47.8 | 4127.75 | 1.4% | | 2025E | | 4319.5 | 20.5% | | | | | | | [14] Polypropylene | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [16]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2026年3月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：受美国对伊朗打击升级、五角大楼增兵中东等消息冲击，美元继续大 涨，金价继续回落；美国三大股指全线收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌；美债收 益率涨跌不一，10年期美债收益率涨1.38个基点报4.277%；美元指数涨0.75%报 100.50，升至去年11月以来的最高，离岸人民币对美元大幅贬值报6.9077；COMEX黄 金期货跌2.00%报5023.10美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货1148.1，现货1146，基差-2.1，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单105420 千克，增加51 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass market is currently in a complex situation with a bearish fundamental outlook, but the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to macro - sentiment boost. The overall expectation is that glass will show a low - level, weak and oscillatory trend [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of glass futures increased from 1113 yuan/ton to 1135 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.98%. The spot price of Shahe safety large plates rose from 972 yuan/ton to 976 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41%. The main basis changed from - 141 yuan/ton to - 159 yuan/ton, a change of 12.77% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large plates in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 976 yuan/ton, 4 yuan/ton higher than the previous day [11]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - Glass production profit has been slightly repaired, but the cold - repair is less than expected, and the supply is at a low level [2]. Fundamentals - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 209, with an operating rate of 71.05%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historically low level in the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 146,900 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level in the same period [16][18]. Fundamentals - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level in the same period, and the capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic [2][4][22]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 75.849 million weight boxes, a decrease of 4.76% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [2][37]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E shows that the production and consumption have different growth rates each year, and the net import ratio also fluctuates. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption is expected to be 53.1 million tons, with a growth rate of - 1.15% [38].