1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, rubber shows a strong performance, but the further driving force is limited. It should focus on macro - sentiment changes. In the medium - to - long - term, it is regarded as neutral to weak due to supply pressure and demand uncertainties [1]. - The future trend of rubber prices is expected to be volatile, with weak fundamental drivers. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Short - term: Rubber rebounded in resonance with the crude oil and chemical sectors. The low valuation of RU, tight spot liquidity of dark - colored rubber, and certain digestion of fundamental negative factors led to the rebound. However, rubber's rebound may suppress procurement demand [1]. - Medium - to - long - term: The global total production capacity cycle has not fully peaked, and supply pressure will increase. Stable demand expectations require continuous macro - positive factors, and export growth faces risks [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Price Range and Trend Judgement**: The reference oscillation range for RU2601 in the next week is 14,900 - 15,500; for NR2511, it is 12,100 - 12,600. It is expected to maintain oscillation in the future, with weak fundamental drivers [15]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. Consider shorting at high prices for far - month contracts with protective option strategies. For basis trading, consider reverse cash - and - carry at high prices. For now, wait and see for spread arbitrage and consider widening the spread at low prices for variety arbitrage [16]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range for rubber RU in the next two weeks is 14,800 - 15,500; for 20 - grade rubber NR, it is 12,100 - 12,600 [20]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management, short rubber futures and use options to lock in profits and reduce risks. For procurement management, buy far - month rubber futures and use options to lock in costs and reduce risks [20][22]. 3.2 Important Information and Concerns 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Tensions between the US and Russia, a significant drop in EIA inventory, and other factors drove up the prices of crude oil and the chemical sector. There was an acceleration in dry - rubber de - stocking, positive macro - economic data, and growth in global light - vehicle sales [23]. - **Negative Information**: Macroeconomic data such as LPR remaining unchanged, a decline in fixed - asset investment, and an increase in rubber imports put downward pressure on rubber prices [25]. 3.2.2 This Week's Focus - Monitor rainfall in rubber - producing areas, Fed FOMC interest - rate decisions, Chinese official PMI data, EIA inventory reports, and new foreign - trade policies [27]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - **Domestic Market**: Rubber prices rebounded last week. RU's position increased, while NR's decreased. Short - position profits for RU and NR decreased, and net positions rebounded. Spot prices generally rebounded, and the basis and term structure of RU and NR changed [28][29][32]. - **Foreign Market**: The foreign - market trend was similar to that of the domestic market, with less volatility in Japanese rubber and stronger performance in Singapore's 20 - grade rubber. The term structure of Japanese and Singaporean rubber also changed [53][55]. 3.3.2 Other Analyses - **Virtual - to - Physical Ratio and Sentiment Index**: Rubber sentiment fluctuated greatly last week, with a bullish sentiment. RU's virtual - to - physical ratio increased, while NR's decreased [57]. - **Domestic - Foreign Spread Tracking**: The spread between RU and Japanese rubber futures decreased significantly, while the spread between NR and Singaporean rubber was similar to the previous period [59]. - **Variety Spread Analysis**: The spread between light and dark rubber rebounded. The spread between natural and synthetic rubber slightly adjusted [62][71]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Profit Tracking - **Raw Material Costs**: Domestic raw - material prices rebounded. In Thailand, water and cup - rubber prices remained stable, and the spread between them slightly narrowed [77]. - **Processing Profits**: The delivery profit of whole - latex remained low, and the profit of TSR9710 decreased. The processing and import profits of imported rubber showed different trends [85][86][89]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - **Production in Major Producing Countries**: Thailand's production is expected to increase smoothly, Indonesia's production may slightly decrease, and Malaysia's production may be affected by weather and low rubber prices. Vietnam's production and exports are affected by weather and tariffs [90]. - **Import Situation**: In September, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import of Thai standard rubber decreased, while that of Thai mixed rubber increased [94][95]. 3.5.2 Demand Side - **Total Demand in Major Producing Countries**: In August, China's actual consumption of natural rubber was stable year - on - year, while the demand in other major producing countries decreased [104]. - **Tire Production and Sales**: After the holiday, tire - enterprise capacity utilization increased. Tire exports showed strong resilience but decreased month - on - month [107]. - **Replacement Demand**: The domestic logistics industry is stable, but fixed - asset investment may suppress replacement demand in the long run [112]. - **Supporting Demand**: Domestic automobile sales were good, and tire supporting demand was stable. However, long - term tire supporting demand from trucks may be limited [115]. - **Overseas Tire Production and Demand**: Japanese tire production was stable, and Thai tire shipments increased. US tire imports increased, and European passenger - car production and sales were stable [126][129]. 3.5.3 Inventory Side - **Futures Inventory**: RU warehouse receipts continued to decline, while NR warehouse receipts increased [133]. - **Social Inventory**: As of October 26, 2025, Qingdao's natural - rubber inventory decreased, with changes in inbound and outbound rates [136].

Market Overview - The rubber sector increased by 2.0% on October 27, with Kexin Innovation leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3996.94, up 1.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13489.4, up 1.51% [1] Top Performers in Rubber Sector - Kexin Innovation (300731) closed at 46.43, up 8.79%, with a trading volume of 180,400 shares and a turnover of 831 million [1] - Zhen'an Technology (300767) closed at 22.32, up 8.56%, with a trading volume of 215,100 shares and a turnover of 470 million [1] - Tongcheng New Materials (603650) closed at 43.40, up 4.28%, with a trading volume of 377,800 shares and a turnover of 1.691 billion [1] Underperformers in Rubber Sector - KQ Co., Ltd. (920665) closed at 13.31, down 1.63%, with a trading volume of 13,200 shares and a turnover of 17.496 million [2] - Yanggu Huatai (300121) closed at 15.94, down 1.48%, with a trading volume of 284,100 shares and a turnover of 46 million [2] - Sanwei Equipment (920834) closed at 15.62, down 1.33%, with a trading volume of 26,600 shares and a turnover of 41.6175 million [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The rubber sector experienced a net outflow of 4.703 million from main funds, while speculative funds saw a net inflow of 9.5428 million, and retail investors had a net outflow of 4.8398 million [2][3] - Kexin Innovation had a main fund net inflow of 16.7754 million, while retail investors had a net inflow of 2.36898 million [3] - Zhen'an Technology saw a main fund net inflow of 7.9603 million, but speculative funds had a net outflow of 28.3319 million [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 市场氛围转好，橡胶反弹上涨 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-27 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 天然橡胶:市场氛围转好，橡胶反弹上涨 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）国内产区：云南产区降雨减少，原料释放趋于正常，受期现市场强劲带动，原料收购价格小幅上调。海南产区受台风影响，强降水天气增加，且气温 出现下降，岛内新鲜胶水供应明显收紧。（2）泰国产区：泰国东北部天气扰动因素减弱，供应增量；台风影响南部产区出现强降雨， 原料释放不畅，工厂 | | | | 买盘提价，带动胶水及杯胶价格均呈现上涨趋势。（3）越南产区：越南产区降水偏多，割胶作业间歇性受到干扰，原料整体产出供应有限，加工厂为保障 | | | | 订单交 付采购需求延续，支撑胶水价格相对坚挺。 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the synthetic rubber industry is "oscillating" [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - Trade frictions have driven up the rubber sector, and the price of BR has been oscillating upwards. Macro - news is causing frequent disturbances. Although the transaction of cis - butadiene rubber has improved slightly due to the price increase, the industry's recent valuation has been repaired and increased. However, attention should still be paid to the impact of changes in production start - up and inventory clearance progress on the spot transaction rhythm [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of October 23, 2025, Sinopec's ex - factory price of BR9000 was stable at 11,200 yuan/ton, while PetroChina's main sales companies raised the ex - factory price of BR9000 to 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The market price of cis - butadiene rubber declined slightly this week and then remained stagnant. The decline in raw material prices weakened cost support, but market focus shifted to supply. With the expectation of eased international trade frictions and the strengthening of the natural rubber market, the short - term bearish sentiment in the market subsided. Traders actively tried to raise prices, and PetroChina's sales companies raised supply prices. Downstream buyers continued to purchase at low prices and were firm in bargaining. Although the supply prices of Sinopec and PetroChina were high and some brands had firm offers due to tight spot resources, private resources still had price advantages, leading to good large - order transactions in the first and middle of the week, but the inquiry atmosphere weakened in the second half of the week [7]. 3.2 Supply Analysis 3.2.1 Butadiene - Last week, domestic butadiene production was [missing data], with a capacity utilization rate of [missing data]. Several major plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, and others maintained a shutdown state. Although the plants of Fushun Petrochemical and Beifang Huajin restarted, the output within the week was limited, resulting in a slight decline in production [4]. 3.2.2 Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Yangzi Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber plant was under maintenance, and Qilu Petrochemical's plant restarted after maintenance. Additionally, Sichuan Petrochemical, Zhenhua New Materials, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical all had regular maintenance plans [4]. 3.3 Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Semi - Steel Tires - During the period, market demand increased. With the cooling and snowfall in Northeast and Inner Mongolia, the sales of snow tires increased, and the market replenishment demand rose. The trading between channels and terminal stores was good. The all - season tire market performed steadily, with regular channel sales and weakly stable prices [4]. 3.3.2 All - Steel Tires - The replacement market showed average performance. Some manufacturers withdrew promotional policies, and the market acceptance was limited. Channel prices were mainly stable, with some product agents raising quotes, but actual transactions continued at previous prices considering channel stability. Terminal demand was weak, and some transactions still had flexible promotional policies [4]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis 3.4.1 Butadiene - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 2.46 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.13%. The enterprise inventory increased month - on - month. Some downstream plants in East China stopped for maintenance, causing a slight fluctuation in butadiene inventory. The port inventory decreased significantly month - on - month due to limited ship arrivals and low tradable volume, leading to a phased reduction in inventory [4]. 3.4.2 Cis - Butadiene Rubber - The combined inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 3.317 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%. The strengthening of natural rubber drove up the mainstream supply price of synthetic rubber. Some manufacturers stocked up, resulting in an overall increase in enterprise inventory and a decrease in trader inventory [4]. 3.5 Basis and Spread Analysis - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North China was - 270 yuan/ton, in East China was - 120 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 70 yuan/ton. The RU - BR spread was 4,215 yuan/ton (an increase of 11.80%), the NR - BR spread was 1,385 yuan/ton (an increase of 6.54%), and the BR - SC ratio was - 0.70% [4]. 3.6 Profit Analysis - The production gross profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation was - 154 yuan/ton, and the production gross profit through C4 extraction was 1,594.88 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 48 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 0.43% [4]. 3.7 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China clarified the development goals and key tasks for the 15th Five - Year Plan period. The meeting between the US and Russian presidents at the Budapest Summit in Hungary was postponed, and no meeting plan has been arranged yet. The military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has intensified, causing continuous market news disturbances. Europe and the US have imposed sanctions on two Russian refineries, and India has re - planned its energy procurement plan [4]. 3.8 Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: The market is expected to oscillate upwards. Arbitrage: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key risks to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance conditions, and geopolitical factors [4].

| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年10月27日 | | | | 蒋诗语 | Z0017002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 现值 | | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 1140 | | 1140 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华东报价 1260 | | 1270 | -10 | -0.79% | | | 华中报价 1150 | | 1150 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华南报价 1240 | | 1240 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 玻璃2505 1236 | | 1256 | -20 | -1.59% | | | 玻璃2509 1327 | | 1343 | -16 | -1.19% | | | 05基本 -96 | | -116 | 20 | 17.24% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 现值 | | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For oil prices, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see as the OPEC's export price - support intention needs to be tested [3] - For methanol, due to slow import unloading, slowed port inventory accumulation, and potential supply disruptions from winter gas - head device shutdowns, the downward momentum of the futures price is expected to be limited. It's recommended to wait and see [6] - For urea, with supply - side device maintenance resuming and demand - side compound fertilizer production increasing, the inventory build - up speed has slowed. Although consumption lacks positive factors, there are still some potential positive factors in the future. It's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [10] - For rubber, the upward momentum driven by the typhoon will weaken. With different views from bulls and bears, it's recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions, wait and see, and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12][13][17] - For PVC, the supply - demand situation is poor with strong supply and weak demand. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it's difficult to support the current situation. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium - term [20] - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is at a high level, and its price may stop falling periodically. It's recommended to wait and see [23] - For polyethylene, the cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The inventory is being reduced from a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level oscillation. It's recommended to wait and see [26] - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high. The cost - side supply surplus suppresses the futures price. It's recommended to wait and see [29] - For PX, with high load and difficult inventory reduction, and PTA's low processing fee having a potential negative feedback risk, it's recommended to wait and see [30] - For PTA, short - term supply will accumulate slightly, and the processing fee is difficult to expand. With potential negative feedback risks, it's recommended to wait and see [31][32] - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities [33] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main crude oil futures contract on INE closed up 10.90 yuan/barrel, a 2.40% increase, at 464.90 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that the total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.44 million barrels to 43.83 million barrels, a 5.28% decrease [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see as the OPEC's export price - support intention needs to be tested [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 10 yuan, remained stable in Inner Mongolia, decreased by 2.5 yuan in southern Shandong. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 32 yuan, at 2272 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 44. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 8, at - 45 [5] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to slow import unloading, the port inventory accumulation has slowed. The current port inventory is 151.22 tons, a 2.08 - ton increase. The domestic production has declined, and the overall traditional demand has weakened. Although there are potential positive factors, it's recommended to wait and see [6] Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price increased by 20 yuan in Shandong and Henan, remained stable in Hubei. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 4 yuan, at 1642 yuan, with a basis of - 82. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 5, at - 77 [8] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With supply - side device maintenance resuming and demand - side compound fertilizer production increasing, the inventory build - up speed has slowed. Although consumption lacks positive factors, there are still some potential positive factors in the future. It's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [10] Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price rose due to the typhoon and positive factors in the stock market, but the positive impact of the typhoon will weaken. Bulls and bears have different views on the market [12][13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It's recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions, wait and see, and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [17] PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract decreased by 22 yuan, at 4708 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4600 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease. The basis was - 108 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan increase. The 1 - 5 spread was - 299 yuan/ton, a 1 - yuan increase. The overall production rate was 76.6%, a 0.1% decrease. The factory inventory was 33.4 tons, a 2.7 - ton decrease, and the social inventory was 103.5 tons, a 0.1 - ton increase [17] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation is poor with strong supply and weak demand. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it's difficult to support the current situation. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium - term [20] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene decreased by 12 yuan/ton, and the futures price also decreased. The spot price of styrene increased by 100 yuan/ton, while the futures price decreased. The BZN spread decreased by 11.63 yuan/ton, and the EB non - integrated device profit decreased by 5 yuan/ton [22] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is at a high level, and its price may stop falling periodically [23] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price decreased by 30 yuan/ton, the spot price increased by 15 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened by 45 yuan/ton. The upstream production rate was 81.28%, a 0.56% decrease. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.49 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.04 tons [25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The inventory is being reduced from a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level oscillation [26] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price decreased by 29 yuan/ton, the spot price decreased by 15 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened by 14 yuan/ton. The upstream production rate was 75.17%, a 0.16% increase. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.02 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.86 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.11 tons [28] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Under the background of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high. The cost - side supply surplus suppresses the futures price [29] PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract increased by 26 yuan, at 6522 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 4 dollars, at 815 dollars. The Chinese load was 85.9%, a 1% increase, and the Asian load was 78.5%, a 0.5% increase. The PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase [29] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With high load and difficult inventory reduction, and PTA's low processing fee having a potential negative feedback risk, it's recommended to wait and see [30] PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract increased by 10 yuan, at 4518 yuan. The spot price in East China increased by 25 yuan, at 4450 yuan. The PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase. The downstream load was 91.4%, unchanged. The social inventory on October 17 was 217.6 tons, a 1.6 - ton increase [30] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term supply will accumulate slightly, and the processing fee is difficult to expand. With potential negative feedback risks, it's recommended to wait and see [31][32] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 contract decreased by 18 yuan, at 4077 yuan. The spot price in East China increased by 14 yuan, at 4187 yuan. The supply - side load was 73.3%, a 3.7% decrease. The port inventory was 57.9 tons, a 3.8 - ton increase [32] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is high, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - On October 24, 2025, A - share three major indices strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a ten - year high. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.71% to 3950.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.02% to 13289.18 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.57% to 3171.57 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 19742 billion yuan, a significant increase of 3303 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures products showed different trends. For example, the CSI 300 Index, coke, and coking coal indices rose, while the prices of some products like iron ore futures fell [1][2][3][4]. - Different factors affected the prices of various futures products. For instance, the supply - demand relationship, policy, and international trade factors influenced the prices of sugar, soybean meal, and other products [5][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On October 24, A - share three major indices strengthened. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.71% to 3950.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.02% to 13289.18 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.57% to 3171.57 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 19742 billion yuan, a significant increase of 3303 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4660.68, a ring - up of 54.34 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On October 24, the coke weighted index fluctuated and sorted, closing at 1781.2, a ring - up of 25.4; the coking coal weighted index fluctuated in a narrow range, closing at 1261.2 yuan, a ring - up of 16.0. The炼焦煤 price in Linfen Anze market rose 50 yuan/ton on October 23. Steel inventory decreased, and the output of the top 10 coal enterprises increased year - on - year. The potential negative feedback risk will restrict the short - term rebound height of coal and coke prices, and the coking coal basis and inter - month positive spreads strengthened [3][4][5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The consulting company Datagro predicted that the global sugar will have a surplus of 198 million tons in the 2025/26 season, compared with a previous forecast of a shortage of 500 million tons, which put pressure on the market. Affected by the decline of US sugar, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract closed slightly lower in the night session on October 24 [5]. Rubber - The Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher in the night session on October 24. As of October 24, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 9898 tons to 163450 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 10980 tons to 124020 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory increased by 2924 tons to 46772 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 2521 tons to 42640 tons. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased slightly last week [6][8]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on October 24, the CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. The market expected the Sino - US trade talks to improve the bilateral trade environment. The estimated US soybean harvest progress reached 73% as of October 19. The Brazilian soybean crop started well, with most mainstream institutions estimating the new - year output at about 1.78 billion tons. Domestically, on October 24, the M2601 main contract closed at 2933 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.17%. The domestic soybean imports in the first three quarters reached a record high, and the soybean inventory of oil mills was still high, limiting the rebound space [9]. Live Pigs - On October 24, the live pig futures price fluctuated. The LH2601 main contract closed at 12175 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.2%. The widening of the standard - fat price difference attracted second - round fattening, providing short - term support. However, the domestic live pig inventory was still at a high level, and the terminal consumption was weak, so the short - term market was in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [10]. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the price center likely to move up slightly, supported by supply contraction expectations and macro - policy benefits. However, weak demand and uncertain factors may limit the increase [10]. Cotton - On the night of October 24, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13585 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 23 lots compared with the previous day. The price of machine - picked cotton was concentrated at 6.2 - 6.4 yuan per kilogram. The Sino - US - Malaysia trade negotiations made phased progress [10]. Iron Ore - On October 24, the 2601 main contract of iron ore fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.58% and a closing price of 771 yuan. The iron ore shipment volume increased month - on - month, the domestic arrival volume decreased from a high level, and the hot metal output continued to decline from a high level. Short - term iron ore prices were in a volatile trend [11]. Asphalt - On October 24, the 2601 main contract of asphalt fluctuated and closed up, with a rise of 0.92% and a closing price of 3299 yuan. The refinery production plan in November decreased significantly month - on - month, the inventory continued to decrease, and the demand for rigid - need stocking increased. The recent rise in crude oil prices boosted market sentiment, and short - term asphalt prices were in a volatile trend [11]. Logs - On October 24, the 2601 log contract opened at 830, with a minimum of 826, a maximum of 833.5, and closed at 829, with an increase of 672 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to the support of the moving average at 827 - 815. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship had no major contradictions, and the market was in a pattern of gradual inventory reduction [11][12]. Steel - The recent macro - level was mixed, with limited incremental information from the "14th Five - Year Plan Press Conference" and a neutral impact on the market. Sino - US high - level economic and trade consultations released some positive signals, but the EU's sanctions on Russia affected some Chinese enterprises, adding uncertainties. The domestic demand recovery momentum was still weak, and the risk of market volatility due to unmet expectations should be警惕 [12]. Alumina - The bauxite port inventory decreased slightly, and the supply tightened, with firm ore prices. The alumina spot price continued to weaken, squeezing smelter profits and increasing the expectation of production cuts, so the domestic alumina supply might gradually decrease. The domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity and operation remained at a high level, and the demand for alumina might be slightly boosted. Overall, the alumina price might be supported [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - The alumina spot price continued to weaken, and the domestic macro - expectation boosted the aluminum price, increasing the electrolytic aluminum smelting profit and production enthusiasm. However, the incremental supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum was limited. The "14th Five - Year Plan" improved domestic consumption expectations, and the downstream start - up rate increased during the traditional peak season, strengthening aluminum consumption and reducing aluminum ingot inventory. However, the inhibitory effect of high aluminum prices on downstream demand should be carefully observed [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic natural rubber futures main contract price fluctuated upward last week with a large increase. Looking ahead, the macro - market atmosphere is warming, which supports the overall commodity atmosphere. The supply side has strong support, terminal consumption performs well, and natural rubber inventory continues to decline. It is expected that the market will fluctuate strongly in the short term [8][9][83] 3. Summary by Directory Price Analysis (1) Futures Price - Last week, the price of the natural rubber main contract RU2601 ranged from 14,675 to 15,470 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend with a significant overall increase. As of the close on October 24, 2025, it closed at 15,335 yuan/ton, up 640 points or 4.36% for the week [6][15] (2) Spot Price - As of October 24, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoke sheets (RSS3) was 18,600 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,300 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from last week. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,060 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton from last week [19][22] (3) Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the natural rubber main contract as the futures reference price, the basis expanded slightly last week. As of October 24, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 585 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton from last week. The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both increased slightly last week [26][28] Important Market Information - The US 9 - month CPI increased by 3% year - on - year, the highest since January this year but lower than the market expectation of 3.1%; the core CPI slowed to 0.2% month - on - month, also lower than the market expectation. The US 10 - month manufacturing PMI, service PMI, and composite PMI all rebounded compared with September and were better than expected. The US consumer confidence index in October declined, and the 5 - to 10 - year inflation expectation rose to 3.9% [29] - Trump expressed his expectation to reach a good trade agreement with China during the APEC meeting, but the meeting might be cancelled. The EU listed Chinese enterprises in the 19th round of sanctions against Russia and sanctioned Chinese large - scale refineries and oil traders for the first time. China urged the EU to stop this behavior [30][31] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. The economic and trade consultations between China and the US were held from October 24 to 27. The EU supported the negotiation for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [30][32] - In September, China's automobile production and sales increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The sales volume of new energy vehicles and heavy trucks reached new highs. The subsidy application volume for automobile trade - ins exceeded 10 million, and the proportion of new energy vehicles reached 57.2% [33][34][35] Supply - side Situation - As of August 31, 2025, the production in some major natural rubber - producing countries changed: Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia slightly decreased, while India, Vietnam, and China slightly increased. The total production in August was 987,000 tons, up 60,000 tons or 6.47% from the previous month, with a slightly slower growth rate [38] - As of September 30, 2025, the monthly production of synthetic rubber in China was 774,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.5%; the cumulative production was 6.616 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 10,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.98% [42][46][50] Demand - side Situation - As of October 23, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.67%, up 0.95% from last week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.58%, up 1.06% from last week [52] - As of September 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 3.2758 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 17.15% and a month - on - month increase of 16.35%; the monthly sales volume was 3.2264 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.86% and a month - on - month increase of 12.94% [56][59] - The monthly sales volume of Chinese heavy trucks was 105,583 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 82.95% and a month - on - month increase of 15.24%. The monthly production of Chinese tire casings was 103.487 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 56.3 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 10.65% [65][68][73] Inventory - side Situation - As of October 24, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 124,020 tons, a decrease of 10,980 tons from last week. As of October 19, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.05 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons or 2.8%. The total inventory of dark rubber was 640,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9%; the total inventory of light rubber was 410,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons or 4.07% from the previous period [80] Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, the global natural rubber producing areas are still in the peak supply season. Recently, the main producing areas at home and abroad have been affected by weather, and typhoons last week hindered rubber tapping, leading to an increase in raw material purchase prices. In the future, there is a strong expectation of increased supply as rainfall decreases. In September 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [81] - On the demand side, the operating rate of tire enterprises rebounded slightly last week. The production of semi - steel tires was stable, and the production of snow tires was being stepped up due to insufficient inventory. The shipment of all - steel tire enterprises slowed down, and the finished product inventory increased slightly. In September, China's automobile production and sales increased, the sales volume of heavy trucks increased significantly, and the export of tires increased significantly [81] - In terms of inventory, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased significantly last week, and China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to decline [82] 后市展望 - The domestic natural rubber futures main contract price fluctuated upward last week. In the future, the macro - market atmosphere is warming, the supply side has strong support, terminal demand is resilient, and inventory continues to decline. It is expected that the market will fluctuate strongly in the short term. Key points to focus on include the progress of Sino - US talks, weather disturbances in rubber - producing areas, changes in terminal demand, and the promotion of zero - tariff policies [83][84] Viewpoint and Operation Strategy - This week's view: It is expected that the natural rubber futures main contract will fluctuate strongly in the short term. - Operation strategy: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see for now, and aggressive investors can consider buying on dips; for arbitrage, consider a positive - spread strategy; for options, wait and see for now [85][86]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the natural rubber industry is neutral [4][9] Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Hints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [4][6] - **Spot Price**: The spot price is strong, and the 23-year full latex (non-deliverable) spot price rose on October 24th. The basis strengthened on October 24th [4][8][35] - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory and Qingdao area inventory are both decreasing. The exchange inventory has been continuously destocking recently, and the Qingdao area inventory has also been continuously destocking [4][14][17] - **Downstream Consumption**: Downstream consumption is high. Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are at a record high for the same period [6][23][29] Multi-Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise**: Downstream consumption is high, the spot price is resistant to decline, and there is anti-involution in the domestic market [6] - **Likely to Fall**: Supply is increasing, domestic economic indicators are bearish, and there are trade frictions [6] Basis - The spot price is 14,750, and the basis is -585, which is bearish [4] Spot Price - The 23-year full latex (non-deliverable) spot price rose on October 24th [8] Inventory - The exchange inventory and Qingdao area inventory are both decreasing. The exchange inventory has been continuously destocking recently, and the Qingdao area inventory has also been continuously destocking [14][17] Import - The import volume has rebounded [20] Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are at a record high for the same period [23][29][32]

橡胶板块2025年10月第4周报 橡胶：原油带动板块回暖，轮胎产销确有好转 ◼【综合分析】 估值方面：本周天然橡胶市场利多因素集聚，胶价强势上涨。青岛市场20号泰混周均价14730元/吨，环比上涨144元/吨（+0.99%）。天 然橡胶STR20MIX周均价14730元/吨，环比上涨144元/吨（+0.99%）。顺丁橡胶价格表现偏强震荡。山东市场顺丁橡胶价格区间在 10750-11350元/吨。中石化化销BR9000出厂价格11200元/吨，中石油主要销售公司BR9000出厂价格11200-11300元/吨。。 供应方面：本周国内天然橡胶产区整体供应呈现增加态势，但受台风扰动，增幅有限。中国天然橡胶产量3.95万吨，环比增加0.05万吨（ +1.28%）。进口量12.2万吨，环比增加0.2万吨（+1.67%）。顺丁橡胶方面，齐鲁石化、扬子石化顺丁装置检修影响显现，产量及产能利 用率下降。本周顺丁橡胶产量3.03万吨，环比下降0.21万吨（-6.48%）。产能利用率73.45%，环比下降1.37个百分点。 潘盛杰 大宗商品研究所 化工研究团队负责人 投资咨询从业证号：Z0014607 需求方面：轮胎行业需求整体 ...