金 点 策 略 晨 报 2025 年 5 月 20 日 短期震荡或将延续，避免盲目追涨杀跌 英大证券研究所证券研究报告 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 首先，成交量略有欠缺及板块轮动较快。近期量能不足叠加板块轮动较快， 缺乏持续性主线，反映出市场信心不足。 其次，外部环境仍有不确定性。虽然中美经贸声明虽远超预期，但并不意味 着关税影响就此终结。事实上，后续关税谈判仍需持续推进，可能还存在诸多变 数。 再次，技术面的压力。3400 点作为前期密集成交区，积累了不少套牢盘，与 此同时，周三大金融拉升下市场成交额并未明显放大，反映出投资者追涨意愿不 足。 最后，当前市场的核心影响因素在于国内基本面。4 月公布的制造业数据重 回荣枯线下方，而 4 月人民币贷款不及预期，1-4 月全国房地产开发投资同比下 降 10.3%，国内基本面修复动能尚需发力。尽管关税有所下调，但目前关税比例 依然较高，对经济仍存在一定影响。若后续经济数据表现平稳，市场有望得到更 好提振；但倘若经济数据平淡，市场压力可能依旧存 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the consumer sector, specifically highlighting the potential in new consumption opportunities and structural growth within the domestic market [6]. Core Insights - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, indicating resilience in domestic demand despite external pressures [1]. - The report emphasizes the positive impact of government policies aimed at boosting consumption, particularly in sectors such as home appliances, sports, and entertainment [1][4]. - The online retail penetration continues to grow, with a 5.8% year-on-year increase in physical goods sold online, reflecting a shift towards digital consumption [2]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - In April, the restaurant and retail sectors saw year-on-year growth of 5.2% and 5.1%, respectively, indicating a stable recovery trend [2]. - The online retail sales of physical goods increased by 6.1% year-on-year from January to April, with an online penetration rate rising to 24.3% [2]. Consumer Trends - Various consumer categories showed positive growth, particularly in home appliances (up 38.8%), furniture (up 26.9%), and sports equipment (up 23.3%), driven by policies encouraging consumption upgrades [3]. - Jewelry sales surged by 25.3% year-on-year, attributed to investment-driven demand for gold and silver [3]. Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with food prices showing a slight decline of 0.2% [4]. - Service prices increased by 0.3% year-on-year, with notable growth in domestic services such as housekeeping and education [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests four main investment themes for 2025: 1. New consumption opportunities driven by domestic brands [5]. 2. High-growth emotional consumption sectors [5]. 3. The burgeoning silver economy [5]. 4. AI-driven consumer innovations [5]. - Specific stock recommendations include brands like 毛戈平 (Mao Geping), 安踏体育 (Anta Sports), and 海澜之家 (HLA) among others, all rated as "Buy" [9][41].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a resurgence in consumer stocks, particularly in sectors such as beauty care, pet economy, and the three-child policy, with several stocks reaching their daily limit up [1] - Notable stocks that experienced a limit up include Lafang Home, Beingmate, Youa Shares, Liren Lizhuang, and Langsha Shares [1] - Conversely, several stocks such as Yuanfei Pet, Yiyi Shares, Huaye Fragrance, Yiming Food, and Shanghai Jahwa saw declines exceeding 5% [1] Group 2 - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the total retail sales of consumer goods in April reached 37,174 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View of the Report - During the week from May 12 to May 17, 2025, the A-share market showed a volatile consolidation pattern with intensified structural rotation. The market style shifted from high - elasticity gaming to defense and low - level replenishment. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose slightly by 0.32%, with a mild recovery in trading volume. The valuations in the low - and medium - price ranges were significantly compressed, while those of medium - to high - parity individual bonds were slightly repaired. There were still structural opportunities at the individual bond level. The primary market supply rhythm was active, the clause gaming remained cautious, and the redemption disturbance was generally controllable. It is recommended to focus on low - premium and high - prosperity individual bonds in the allocation, while also considering the stable allocation value of high - rated blue - chip convertible bonds [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Weekly Review Equity Market - The A - share market was volatile and differentiated. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.8%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.4%, and the CSI 2000 Index rose 1.0%. The market style shifted from gaming elasticity to stable defense. Industries such as beauty care, banking, and transportation led the gains, while high - valuation growth sectors such as computer, military, and electronics adjusted. The daily average trading volume decreased to 1.2 trillion yuan, and the daily net outflow of main funds increased to 150 million yuan [10]. Convertible Bond Market - The convertible bond market was volatile. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.32%, and the daily average trading volume recovered to 637 million yuan. The median market price rose slightly to 112.39 yuan, and the balance - weighted implied volatility fell to 19.3%. The valuations in the low - and medium - price ranges were significantly compressed, while those of medium - to high - parity individual bonds were slightly repaired. In the primary market, 11 listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans, and in terms of clause gaming, 5 convertible bonds were expected to trigger a downward revision, 12 announced no downward revision, 2 proposed a downward revision, 5 announced an expected redemption, and 2 announced no early redemption [10]. Market Theme Weekly Review Equity Theme - The A - share theme market showed significant high - low switching. The trading - style indexes such as the daily limit hitting index, the first - board non - ST index, and the first - board index led the gains, while the growth sectors such as the pan - AI direction adjusted significantly. The market style shifted from high - elasticity gaming to low - level gaming and defense [15]. Convertible Bond - The convertible bond market rose first and then fell, with a mild recovery in trading volume. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.32%, and small - cap convertible bonds were relatively active. The valuations of medium - to high - parity convertible bonds were slightly repaired, while those in the low - price range were compressed. The market continued the pattern of structural rotation and theme gaming. It is recommended to pay attention to medium - and high - priced bonds with sufficient valuation compression, positive stock catalysis, and prosperity support [18]. Weekly Industry Outlook - The A - share market will continue the structural volatile pattern, with short - term market dominated by theme gaming and sentiment driving. High - elasticity directions such as the daily limit hitting index are strong, but the adjustment pressure on previous high - level themes such as AI and military is expected to continue. In the convertible bond market, the index rose first and then fell, with a mild recovery in trading volume. Low - priced convertible bond valuations were rapidly compressed, and medium - and high - priced bonds had valuation repair elasticity. It is recommended to pay attention to medium - and high - priced convertible bonds with fully adjusted valuations and strong fundamental support, as well as high - rated, low - premium bonds with "bond bottom + theme" dual characteristics [20]. Market Weekly Tracking Equity Market Style and Capital Trends - The main A - share indexes were volatile and differentiated. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.8%, and the ChiNext Index was relatively strong, rising 1.4%. The market style shifted to defense, and industries such as beauty care, banking, and transportation led the gains, while high - valuation growth sectors such as computer and military adjusted. The daily average trading volume decreased to 1.2 trillion yuan, and the daily net outflow of main funds increased to 150 million yuan. The capital allocation rhythm became more cautious, and the trading structure shifted from high - elasticity to stable defense [21][28]. Convertible Bond Market - The convertible bond index rose first and then fell, with small - cap convertible bonds being more elastic. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.32%, and the daily average trading volume recovered to 637.4 million yuan. By parity interval, the valuations of medium - and high - parity convertible bonds were stretched, while those in the low - price range were compressed. By market price interval, the valuations were generally compressed. The implied volatility of the whole market was at a historical low, and the median price of convertible bonds rose slightly. There were significant differences in the performance of convertible bonds between sectors, and individual bonds were also differentiated. The primary market supply was active, and clause gaming was an important trading auxiliary [39][43][52]. Primary Market Tracking and Clause Gaming Primary Market Issuance Plan - 11 listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans, including 2 approved for registration, 2 accepted by the exchange, 5 passed by the general meeting of shareholders, and 2 at the board of directors' plan stage. The total scale of projects at the exchange - accepted and subsequent stages reached 5.9 billion yuan [10][61]. Clause Gaming - In terms of downward revision, 5 convertible bonds were expected to trigger a downward revision, 12 announced no downward revision, and 2 proposed a downward revision. In terms of redemption, 5 convertible bonds announced an expected redemption, 2 announced no early redemption, and 0 announced an early redemption [10][68][72].

Group 1 - The annual "618" shopping festival has begun, with over 13,000 brands achieving doubled sales in the first hour of Tmall's event [1][2] - The beauty and personal care sector has shown remarkable performance in the A-share market, driven by consumption recovery policies and the "618" promotion [1][3] - Analysts suggest that the beauty sector will see structural opportunities due to the "618" event, with a focus on high-quality companies in segments like gold jewelry, medical beauty, offline retail, and pet products [1][4] Group 2 - E-commerce platforms have started their "618" promotions earlier this year, extending the overall duration of the event [2] - Tmall reported that 43 brands achieved over 100 million yuan in sales within the first hour, a more than 50% increase compared to last year [2] - The beauty sector's GMV during the pre-sale period reached between 2.5 billion to 3.5 billion yuan, showing positive year-on-year growth [2] Group 3 - The "618" event has simplified consumer decision-making, enhancing the shopping experience and contributing significantly to brand revenues [3] - The beauty care sector has seen a 4.07% increase in stock prices over the last five trading days, leading among 31 sectors [3] - Analysts recommend focusing on high-growth segments such as gold jewelry, innovative offline retail, and differentiated medical beauty products for investment opportunities [4] Group 4 - The pet economy is gaining attention, with domestic brands benefiting from product innovation and refined marketing strategies [4] - The growth of the pet economy is supported by favorable trends in pet food exports, indicating a positive outlook for related businesses [4]

另一方面，机器人产业链、医药生物和白酒板块表现疲软，其中医药板块调整主要受部分个股业绩不及 预期影响。 具体看，综合（1.99%）、环保（1.87%）、房地产、国防军工、社会服务均涨超1%；食品饮料 （-0.9%）、汽车（-0.33%）、银行、有色金属、通信等跌幅靠前。 5月19日，A股市场维持窄幅震荡格局，主要指数小幅分化。 当前市场缺乏明确的共识和催化，宽基指数大概率继续窄幅震荡，可耐心等待逢跌买入的机会。同时， 聚焦政策收益和业绩确定性板块，重点把握结构性机会。 短期内，继续关注美容护理、国防军工等板块的机会。 截至收盘，上证指数微涨0.12点收于3367.58点，深证成指小幅下跌0.08%，创业板指跌幅0.33%。值得 注意的是，北证50指数表现抢眼，上涨2.37%创下历史收盘新高，显示中小市值股票受到资金青睐。市 场交投保持活跃，两市合计成交1.09万亿元，与前一交易日基本持平。 从行业表现来看，并购重组概念股表现最为亮眼。证监会新发布的《重组办法》松绑政策效应显现，鼓 励优质企业通过并购重组做大做强，带动相关个股集体走强。港口航运板块延续强势，多只个股连续涨 停，主要受益于中美贸易关税90天暂缓期 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed narrow fluctuations today, with mixed performance across major indices. The Shanghai Composite Index closed flat at 3367.58 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.08% to 10171.09 points. The ChiNext Index decreased by 0.33% to 2032.76 points, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index remained unchanged at 995.25 points. Overall, 3559 stocks rose, 1691 fell, and 160 remained flat, with total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets amounting to 10864 billion, a decrease of 30.81 billion from the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, sectors such as comprehensive services, environmental protection, real estate, national defense and military industry, social services, and beauty care led the gains. Conversely, industries like food and beverage, automotive, banking, non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, and biomedicine experienced declines [1]. Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included primary real estate developers, restructuring, pet economy, Huakun Zhenyu, Nanjing State-owned Assets, ST sectors, selected food processing, lithium extraction from salt lakes, pre-made dishes, solar thermal power generation, new urbanization, low-priced stocks in the ChiNext, urban village renovation, central enterprise automobiles, and the poultry industry [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in the number of stocks with consecutive gains, with a promotion rate of 40% for stocks moving from one to two consecutive gains [1] - A total of 84 stocks hit the daily limit, with 23 stocks being consecutive gainers, including 6 stocks with three or more consecutive gains [1] - The overall market sentiment is improving, with over 3,500 stocks rising and more than 100 stocks increasing by over 9% [1] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has modified certain provisions of the "Guidance on the Supervision of Listed Companies No. 9" to facilitate mergers and acquisitions, leading to a surge in the M&A concept stocks [1] - Notable stocks in the M&A sector include Guangzhi Technology, which hit the daily limit, and Zongyi Co., which has seen three gains in four days [1] - Other stocks with restructuring expectations, such as Hunan Tianyan, Bohai Co., and Xin Hongtai, also experienced limit-up movements [1] Group 3 - Chengfei Integration achieved a remarkable nine consecutive gains, while Lijun Co. and Zhongyida recorded two consecutive gains [2] - Other notable stocks include Youfu Co. with ten gains in twenty days, and Jiaoda Aongli with five gains in seven days [3] - The overall trend indicates a strong performance in sectors such as military, shipping, and chemicals, with various companies showing significant upward momentum [2][3]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced slight declines last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.4% to 3367.46 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.07%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.19% [1][7] - The total trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 1.09 trillion yuan, with over 2800 stocks rising [1][7] - In terms of industry performance, the automotive and machinery equipment sectors led the gains, while the beauty and personal care sector lagged [1][7] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.46% to 23345.05 points, while the US stock indices all closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.78%, S&P 500 up 0.70%, and Nasdaq up 0.52% [1][7] Important News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) approved amendments to the "Major Asset Restructuring Management Measures for Listed Companies," which will take effect immediately. Key changes include the establishment of a phased payment mechanism for restructuring shares, an increase in regulatory tolerance for financial condition changes, and the introduction of a simplified review process for certain restructuring transactions [2][8] - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued a revised "Regulations on Strictly Saving and Opposing Waste by Party and Government Agencies," emphasizing the importance of frugality and responsibility in government spending [5][9] Industry Insights - In April, India's diamond import value turned positive year-on-year, with lab-grown diamond rough imports increasing by 55% to 0.91 billion USD, while natural diamond rough imports also showed a positive year-on-year change [10][12] - The penetration rate of lab-grown diamonds in India's export market rose to 9.08%, up by 2.32 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a growing acceptance of these products [12] - The beauty and personal care sector saw a slight increase in fund allocation in Q1 2025, with the total market capitalization of the sector reaching 254.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.38% increase from the previous quarter [19][20] - The personal care and medical beauty sub-sectors are currently in an overweight position, while the cosmetics sector has reached a historical low in allocation [20][21] Strategic Collaborations - Huawei and UBTECH signed a comprehensive cooperation agreement to deepen collaboration in humanoid robotics, focusing on the development of intelligent technologies and multi-scenario applications [14][15] - Tencent Cloud and Yujian Technology also signed a strategic cooperation agreement to enhance humanoid robot technology development, aiming to reduce costs and accelerate industrialization [16][17]

Market Overview - The A-share market has successfully recovered from the significant drop caused by the "reciprocal tariff" policy announced in early April 2025, with major indices regaining previous lows by May 14, 2025[3][20] - The recovery was primarily driven by policy stimulus and emotional repair, resulting in a "V-shaped reversal" in the indices, but the market now faces a lack of new catalysts and potential short-term adjustments[3][20] Market Sentiment and Trends - Recent market behavior shows rapid rotation among sectors such as military, shipping, finance, and beauty care, indicating insufficient market confidence and a preference for short-term speculation[4][20] - The external environment remains uncertain, with ongoing tariff negotiations that could introduce further volatility despite recent positive developments in US-China trade relations[4][20] Technical and Economic Factors - The 3400-point level has become a significant resistance area, accumulating many trapped positions, and recent financial sector rallies did not lead to a substantial increase in trading volume, reflecting weak investor enthusiasm[4][22] - Domestic economic indicators, such as the manufacturing PMI dropping to 49% in April and lower-than-expected RMB loans, suggest that economic recovery is not robust, which could continue to exert pressure on the market[4][22] Investment Strategy - The market is entering a traditional "performance vacuum" period, lacking earnings data guidance and facing strong selling pressure from profit-taking and cautious sentiment[5][20] - Investors are advised to avoid blind chasing of price increases and to focus on sector rotation, employing a strategy of buying low and selling high[5][23]