Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-bank financial sector is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The insurance sector shows a high level of new policy sales, with 79 life insurance companies achieving new premium income of 69 billion yuan in February 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.9%. Cumulatively, the new premium income for January and February reached 281.4 billion yuan, up 21.7% year-on-year [4] - The top seven insurance companies have a cumulative growth rate of approximately 70% in new premium income for the first two months, significantly outperforming the overall industry. The report remains optimistic about the value recovery and market share increase of leading insurance companies under the "insurance and banking integration" and transformation of dividend insurance [4] - The securities sector is expected to benefit from the recovery of investment banking activities and changes in industry dynamics, with recommendations for Huatai Securities and attention to CITIC Securities, GF Securities, and Industrial Bank [5][6] - The multi-financial sector, particularly futures companies, has seen significant performance improvements due to increased volatility in commodity prices, with January 2026 revenues reaching 4.828 billion yuan and net profits at 1.775 billion yuan, marking year-on-year increases of 75% and 215% respectively [7][8] Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - The insurance sector's new policy sales are performing well, with a notable increase in new premium income and a strong performance from leading companies [4] Securities Sector - The revised disclosure standards for public funds are set to enhance transparency and investor confidence, which is expected to promote long-term healthy development in the public fund industry [5] - The top 20 sales institutions for non-monetary market funds have a total holding scale of 8.28 trillion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15% [6] Multi-Financial Sector - Futures companies reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit in January 2026, driven by high volatility in commodity prices and increased demand for hedging and speculation [7][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Bullish logic: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are frequent, the US - Iran war continues, and the Strait of Hormuz restricts vessel passage; the Fed has opened an interest - rate cut channel, which is favorable for commodities; the actual production increase of OPEC+ may be limited [27][28]. - Bearish logic: The problem of oversupply persists, crude oil inventories are accumulating, and the production increase path is difficult to reverse; geopolitical conflicts may ease, and there may be new progress in Russia - Ukraine negotiations, leading to a decline in geopolitical premiums; the duration of the US - Iran conflict is uncertain; the macro - economy is weakening with a downward expectation [29][30][31]. - Strategy summary: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has become normalized, and the oil releases by various countries are difficult to make up for the supply gap. Some countries have started production cuts to deal with the short - term rapid increase in inventories, and the scale of production cuts may exceed 10 million barrels per day. More than 20% of the world's crude oil transportation passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is the key point of the US - Iran game, and currently only a small number of vessels can pass. The US bombed the Iranian oil export hub of Kharg Island on Friday, escalating the war. Iran's exports are about 1.5 million barrels per day, which has a significant impact on global crude oil supply. The market has shifted from the dissipation of over - heated emotional premiums to the gradual realization of supply problems, and the world still faces a supply reduction risk of over 10 million barrels per day. The current market pricing may not be sufficient to reflect this extreme situation [34]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Core Indicators and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Key Event Review - **Fundamentals**: The G7 decided not to release strategic oil reserves immediately; Middle East oil production cuts intensified with a reduction of up to 6.7 million barrels per day from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait; the UAE was dealing with a fire at its largest refinery; the EIA adjusted its forecast of US crude oil production; the API crude oil inventory in the US decreased; the IEA proposed to release the largest - ever oil reserves; the US Energy Department planned to release 172 million barrels of oil in 120 days; the number of US oil rigs increased; US crude oil exports decreased, domestic production decreased slightly, commercial crude oil inventories increased, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories increased slightly [11][14][16]. - **Macroeconomic data**: US inflation data such as CPI and PCE were released, and data on initial jobless claims, GDP, and consumer confidence were also reported [15][16]. - **Geopolitical conflicts**: Trump mentioned the possibility of sending US troops to Iran; Iran threatened to attack neighboring oil facilities and block the Strait of Hormuz; the US bombed the Iranian oil export hub of Kharg Island and sent additional military forces to the Middle East; Gulf countries tried to persuade the US to avoid attacking Iranian energy facilities [20][23]. - **Institutional forecasts**: The EIA and Citi Research adjusted their forecasts for crude oil prices [24]. 3.1.2 Next Week's Core Indicator Calendar Key events and data releases include an economic and trade consultation between China and the US, API and EIA crude oil inventories, the Fed's interest - rate decision, initial jobless claims, the European Central Bank's deposit mechanism rate, and the number of US oil rigs [25]. 3.2 Price Basic Data - **Crude oil basic prices**: The prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Middle - East crude oil showed significant increases on a weekly, monthly, and annual basis [40][41]. - **Crude oil forward prices**: The forward curves of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil were presented [60][61]. - **Crude oil monthly spreads**: The monthly spreads of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil were analyzed [62][63]. - **Crude oil盘面 spreads**: Spreads such as Brent - WTI, Brent - Oman, and Brent - SC were studied [69][70]. - **Main oil - type premiums and discounts**: Premiums and discounts of various oil types from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, etc. were shown [75][76]. - **US dollar index**: The relationship between the US dollar index and WTI prices was presented [89][90]. 3.3 World Crude Oil Supply and Demand - **World crude oil supply - demand forecasts**: OPEC, EIA, and IEA provided supply - demand balance tables and forecasts, showing trends in production, consumption, and inventory changes [97][98][100]. - **OPEC major - country production**: The production and export data of major OPEC countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait were presented, as well as Russia's export data [116][117][130]. - **Crude oil supply - demand forecasts**: Global supply and demand forecasts from EIA and OPEC were shown, along with estimates of jet fuel demand [135][136][139]. - **Refinery maintenance capacity**: Maintenance capacity data of global, Mediterranean, US, and Northwest European refineries were presented [140][141]. - **Refinery profits**: Crack spreads of European and Singapore refined products were analyzed [142][143][146]. - **Crude oil inventories**: Data on various types of crude oil inventories such as offshore, in - transit, floating storage, and OECD inventories were presented [151][152][160]. 3.4 China and US Oil Product Supply and Demand 3.4.1 US Oil Product Supply and Demand - **US oil product production**: Data on US crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and other product production, as well as refinery processing volume and capacity utilization, were presented [166][167]. - **US crude oil imports and exports**: US crude oil import and export data showed changes on a weekly, monthly, and annual basis [177][178][180]. - **US crude oil apparent consumption**: Data on US crude oil apparent consumption and related derived demands were presented [181][182][184]. - **US refinery profits**: Crack spreads of US refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were analyzed [185][186][189]. - **US crude oil inventories**: Data on various types of US crude oil and refined product inventories were presented [190][191][192]. - **CFTC position data**: WTI commercial and non - commercial positions, as well as ICE + NYMEY crude oil positions, were presented [210][211][213]. 3.4.2 China Oil Product Supply and Demand - **Domestic crude oil supply**: Data on China's crude oil production and imports were presented [216][217][218]. - **Crude oil import freight**: Freight data from the Middle East and West Africa to China were presented [219][220]. - **Domestic refined product data**: Data on refinery operating rates, profits, and inventories of refined products in China were presented [221][223][225]. - **Domestic crude oil inventories**: Data on Shandong refinery crude oil inventory ratios were presented [228][229]. - **Crude oil import quotas**: Data on China's crude oil import quotas and allowances over the years were presented [231][232][233]. 3.5 Financial Core Data - **Financial data**: Data on US initial jobless claims, non - farm payrolls, ADP employment, and inflation (CPI, core CPI, energy CPI) were presented [238][239][243].

煤焦周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所·刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 日期：2026年3月15日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：焦煤能源属性进一步发酵，震荡偏强 ◆ 1、供应： ➢ 国内供应，本周部分复产安排较晚以及因工作面生产受限的矿点恢复正常，供应端整体稳步增量，本周中国煤炭资源网统计本周样本煤矿原煤产量周环比增加16.61 万吨至1231.92万吨，精煤产量周环比增加3.99万吨至609.56万吨，产能利用率周环比上升1.16%至85.71%。进口方面，节后满都拉通关持续回升，中国煤炭资源网 统计本周（3.9-3.12）口岸共通关4天，日均通关425车，较上周同期日均增加40车。本周市场情绪有所好转，产地与其他口岸报价均有上涨，口岸部分报价小幅上 调，但前期降价不足，目前口岸资源多无性价比，下游采购情绪一般，成交依然较为冷清。 ➢ 2、需求： ➢ 在盘面影响下，下游及中间环节拿货增加，煤矿整体出货顺畅，库存有所降低，部分煤种价格有所上涨，焦企生产成本抬升，但是近期副产品价格大幅上涨，弥补 焦 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The pig market is expected to enter the destocking phase in mid - to late March. The spot price is in the bottom - seeking stage, and the futures market may enter the active weight - reduction and destocking phase [2][3][4] Group 2: This Week's Market Review (3.9 - 3.15) Spot Market - Pig prices are weakly operating. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan is 28.7 yuan/kg (last week: 29.8 yuan/kg), the price of pigs in Henan is 10.18 yuan/kg (last week: 10.48 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide is 1541 yuan/head (last week: 1559 yuan/head) [2] - On the supply side, group enterprises' slaughter has returned to normal, with volume reduction and price support on weekends, and social passive backlogging. On the demand side, slaughter volume has gradually returned to the spring normal level, the volume of passive segmentation and warehousing has increased, and the speculative demand for secondary fattening has accelerated [2] - The average slaughter weight nationwide this week is 125.6KG (last week: 125.4KG), with a month - on - month increase of 0.16% [2] Futures Market - Pig futures prices are oscillating and adjusting. The highest price of the LH2605 contract this week is 11435 yuan/ton, the lowest price is 11100 yuan/ton, and the closing price is 11150 yuan/ton (last week: 11160 yuan/ton) [2] - The basis of the main contract is - 970 yuan/ton (last week: - 680 yuan/ton) [2] Group 3: Next Week's Market Outlook (3.16 - 3.22) Spot Market - Pig spot prices are weakly operating. Due to the slow slaughter progress in February, the supply is postponed again. Although enterprises hope to destock, the short - term social passive inventory accumulation is difficult to reverse. After the Spring Festival peak season, the slaughter volume in the off - season has dropped significantly, and the spot price is in the bottom - seeking stage [3] - From the supply perspective, according to the piglet data, the supply of standard pigs will continue to increase until April 2026. However, the pre - festival market expectation was strong, resulting in multiple rounds of inventory accumulation sentiment, and the destocking effect during the peak season was not as expected. After the festival, the weight is at the highest level in the same period in recent years and continues to increase, confirming the passive inventory accumulation pattern [3] - From the demand perspective, the market had a strong expectation for the pre - Spring Festival peak season, driving the advance of speculative demand in January. However, the negative feedback of downstream losses during the peak season appeared, resulting in the increase in peak - season volume falling short of expectations. After the post - festival spot price decline, the speculative demand for secondary fattening and segmentation warehousing increased, further over - consuming the speculative demand [3] - Overall, the group's slaughter plan in March has a large increase, social backlogging continues, the price difference between fat and standard pigs has entered the inverted stage, but there will still be speculative behavior in the social aspect until the spot market is pessimistic and panicked, driving panic destocking. It is expected to enter the destocking phase in mid - to late March [3] Futures Market - The price of the LH2605 contract closed at 11150 yuan/ton on March 13. Secondary fattening and segmentation warehousing continue to enter the market, the price difference between fat and standard pigs continues to shrink and has inverted, the average weight of enterprises continues to increase and is at the highest level in recent years. At present, the profit of weight gain is negative, and the continuous low price consumes the enterprise's cash flow. It is expected to enter the active weight - reduction and destocking phase. The upper limit of slaughter volume consumption in the off - season is low, and the destocking process may last for a long time, with the spot price further seeking the bottom [4] - The current 05 contract has a large premium. In the second half of the month, it will enter the stage of the industry taking back the premium. Pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2605 contract is 10000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12000 yuan/ton [4] Group 4: Other Data - This week's basis is - 970 yuan/ton; the month - spread between LH2605 and LH2607 is - 1195 yuan/ton [9] - This week's average weight is 125.6KG (last week: 125.4KG) [12] - In January, the pork output is 5.36 billion tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%; in December, the pork import is 5.36 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 7.23% [12]

1. Report Summary - The report is a weekly inventory report of manganese ore at Tianjin Port (Tianjin Zhenhong's data), presenting inventory, outbound, and inbound data for different origins of manganese ore as of March 13, 2026, along with historical trends [1][2]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the current situation and historical trends of manganese ore inventory, outbound, and inbound at Tianjin Port, which can assist in understanding the supply - demand dynamics of the manganese ore market [2]. 3. Key Data Summaries by Origin Total - As of March 13, 2026, the total inventory was 3,345,944 tons, with an outbound volume of 3,292,000 tons and an inbound volume of 475,435 tons. The pre - Spring Festival inventory was 529,378 tons, and the inventory accounted for 53,944 tons [2]. Gabon - The inventory was 271,907 tons, with an outbound volume of 286,812 tons and an inbound volume of 67,712 tons. The change was - 14,905 tons, and the change rate was 8.13% [2]. Australia - The inventory accounted for 14.24%, and the document did not provide other detailed data [2]. South Africa - The inventory was 476,477 tons, with an outbound volume of 483,007 tons, an inbound volume of 0 tons, and a change of - 6,530 tons [2]. Ghana - The inventory was 151,017 tons, with an outbound volume of 302,217 tons and an inbound volume of 172,579 tons. The change was 218,6881 tons, and the change rate was 70.52% [2]. Others - The inventory was 78,000 tons, accounting for 3.14%. The outbound volume was 105,000 tons, the inbound volume was 183,000 tons, and the change was - 78,000 tons [2]. 4. Historical Trend Charts - There are historical trend charts for the total inventory, inbound, and outbound of manganese ore at Tianjin Port Zhenhong, as well as for different types of manganese ore such as oxide ore (Gabon + Australian ore), South African semi - carbonate powder and lumps, and Ghanaian ore [4][6][8][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polypropylene market has been significantly affected by geopolitical factors, with the market showing a strong upward trend. The supply side is facing challenges due to increased unexpected maintenance and production cuts, while the demand side is expected to gradually pick up. The cost side has strengthened significantly, and the profit situation varies among different production processes. Overall, the market is expected to be volatile and slightly strong, but there is a risk of correction [1][6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions - Geopolitical disturbances have led to a significant increase in the polypropylene market. The supply side is affected by increased unexpected maintenance and production cuts, while the demand side is expected to gradually pick up. The cost side has strengthened significantly, and the profit situation varies among different production processes [1][6][7]. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand Situation Supply - This week's production decreased slightly to 722,600 tons, a decrease of 45,800 tons from last week. In the next two weeks, more devices will be shut down for maintenance or operate at reduced loads, and production is expected to continue to decline, with an estimated output of 655,800 tons and 651,800 tons respectively. The maintenance loss this week was 198,000 tons, an increase of 3,400 tons from last week [6]. - There are many unexpected PP maintenance cases. Multiple companies have device maintenance plans from 2025 to 2026, which will affect production. In 2025, new production capacity was added, with a total of 4.555 million tons. In 2026, new production capacity is planned to be added, with a total of 6.1 million tons [15][19][20]. Demand - The current downstream demand is not very good. However, next week's demand is expected to continue to strengthen slightly, with the apparent demand reaching 829,300 tons [6][41]. Inventory - This week, the total inventory decreased slightly to 938,400 tons, a decrease of 10,800 tons from last week. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decrease next week, and the impact of upstream production cuts is expected to be apparent. Upstream inventory, including coal - chemical, PDH, and ground - refinery inventories, decreased to some extent, while the inventory of "Two - oil" increased. Mid - stream inventory also decreased slightly [6]. 3.3 Polypropylene Basis and Spread Basis - The 1 - 5 month spread decreased from - 626 last week to - 855 this week, a decrease of 229. The 5 - 9 month spread increased from 407 last week to 552 this week, an increase of 145, showing a strengthening trend of the 5 - 9 positive spread. The 9 - 1 month spread increased from 219 last week to 303 this week, an increase of 84. - The East China basis increased from - 200 last week to 0 this week, an increase of 200. The North China basis increased from - 250 last week to - 200 this week, an increase of 50. The South China basis decreased from 0 last week to - 100 this week, a decrease of 100, showing a weakening trend. The spot basis fluctuates greatly [8]. Product Spread - The fiber - to - draw ratio increased from 50 last week to 250 this week, an increase of 200. The co - polymer - to - draw ratio remained unchanged at 250. The injection - to - draw ratio increased from 50 last week to 100 this week, an increase of 50. The pellet - to - powder ratio in North China increased from - 100 last week to 0 this week, an increase of 100. The pellet - to - powder ratio in East China increased from - 150 last week to 0 this week, an increase of 150. The narrow spread between pellets and powders has a certain supporting effect on pellet prices [8]. Disk Spread - The PP - 3MA on the 01 - contract disk decreased from - 179 last week to - 190 this week, a decrease of 11, showing a strengthening trend. The PP - 3MA on the 05 - contract disk increased from 39 last week to 125 this week, an increase of 86. The PP - 3MA on the 09 - contract disk increased from - 44 last week to 41 this week, an increase of 85. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on PP and short on MA. The LL - PP on the 01 - contract disk increased from 183 last week to 271 this week, an increase of 88. The LL - PP on the 05 - contract disk increased from - 106 last week to - 67 this week, an increase of 39, showing a weakening trend. The LL - PP on the 09 - contract disk increased from 66 last week to 183 this week, an increase of 117. The LL - PP was volatile this week [8]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook Upper, Middle, and Lower Reaches Views - Upstream: The situation of upstream device load reduction has worsened, and production is expected to be significantly affected, with output lower than expected. Some upstream companies have postponed their delivery plans [10]. - Mid - stream: Spot trading has slightly deteriorated. Some agents have started to sell off their goods due to poor spot liquidity and concerns about difficulties in selling when prices fall [10]. - Downstream: After the previous restocking, the inventory has gradually become sufficient, and the situation of downstream panic - buying has eased [10]. Strategies - Futures - cash: Pay attention to futures - cash arbitrage opportunities [10]. - Inter - month: Consider exiting the 5 - 9 positive spread [10]. - Cross - variety: None for the time being [10]. - Unilateral: It is recommended to adopt a volatile and slightly strong mindset, but beware of the risk of correction [10]. - Options: Buy put options [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Based on weekly technical indicator signals, different sectors of commodity and financial futures show various trends. For commodity futures, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products have different outlooks; for financial futures, stock index futures and treasury bond futures also present diverse trends [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1有色及贵金属板块 - Precious metals: Gold shows a weekly oscillation, while silver shows a bearish signal. Non - ferrous metals: Alumina shows a bullish signal, while lead, tin, and zinc show bearish signals, and the rest of the varieties are mainly oscillating [9][10] - Shanghai Aluminum: In the short - term, it is mainly oscillating. Monthly line is in a bullish arrangement, weekly line shows a bullish arrangement but with increased short - term fluctuations, and daily line has a risk of callback [13] 3.2黑色及航运板块 - Black metals: Rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, and coke show bullish signals, and the rest of the varieties are mainly oscillating; European container shipping shows an oscillating trend [18][19] - Rebar: In the short - term, focus on price repair. It is expected to oscillate and repair next week, and pay attention to the resistance range of 3130 - 3150 [21] 3.3能源及化工板块 - Energy: Crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and asphalt show bullish signals, while fuel oil and LPG are mainly oscillating. Chemicals: Polypropylene, caustic soda, methanol, propylene, pure benzene, glass, and soda ash show bullish signals, and pulp shows a bearish signal, and the rest of the varieties are mainly oscillating [27][28] - PTA: In the short - term, it is mainly oscillating and rising. However, be vigilant against the risk of long - position funds taking profits and short - position entry [30] 3.4农产品板块 - Agricultural products: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, sugar, peanuts, soybeans, rapeseed oil, and eggs show bullish signals, and logs show a bearish signal, and the rest of the varieties are mainly oscillating [36][37] - Corn: It is mainly oscillating, and pay attention to the risk of callback within the week. There is still an upward expectation in the medium - term, but be vigilant against the short - term callback risk [41] 3.5股指期货板块 - Stock index futures: CSI 500 futures and CSI 1000 futures show oscillating signals, while SSE 50 futures and CSI 300 futures show bearish signals [47][48] - IC CSI 500 futures: In the short - term, it is mainly oscillating. The medium - term bullish market is not over, but the short - term price is mainly oscillating and adjusting [51] - IF CSI 300 futures: There is still a certain risk of callback in the short - term [54] 3.6国债期货板块 - Treasury bond futures: 5 - year treasury bond futures show an oscillating trend, while 2 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures show bearish signals [60][61] - T 10 - year treasury bond futures: In the short - term, it is mainly oscillating and weak [64] - TS 2 - year treasury bond futures: In the short - term, it is mainly oscillating [66]

Core Insights - The 2026 Hurun Global Rich List highlights the growing influence of Chinese private equity investors, reflecting the maturation of China's capital markets and the redefinition of the asset management industry [2] Group 1: Wealth Rankings - Shen Nanpeng of Sequoia China ranks 785th with a wealth of 40 billion RMB [3] - Ge Weidong of Chaos Investment ranks 871st with a wealth of 35.5 billion RMB [10] - Zhang Lei of Hillhouse Capital ranks 1013th with a wealth of 26.5 billion RMB [7] - Duan Yongping of H&H International ranks 2207th with a wealth of 14.5 billion RMB [12] - Qiu Guogen and Luo Yifu of Chongyang Investment rank 3635th with a wealth of 7.5 billion RMB [4] Group 2: Investment Strategies and Achievements - Qiu Guogen and Luo Yifu have successfully managed Chongyang Investment, with a significant focus on long-term investments, exemplified by their 6 billion RMB investment in Xinhecheng, yielding over 1 billion RMB in profits over eight years [5][6] - Zhang Lei's Hillhouse Capital has grown to manage over 500 billion USD, with notable investments in companies like JD.com and Blue Moon, emphasizing the importance of logistics and supply chain in competitive advantage [8][9] - Ge Weidong's investment strategies in futures have led to significant profits, including a notable gain during the cotton futures market in 2010 and the "copper futures battle" in 2014, showcasing his market acumen [11] - Duan Yongping's investment philosophy emphasizes value investing, with a focus on companies like Apple and Tencent, and he has a significant presence in the U.S. stock market with a portfolio valued at approximately 17.49 billion USD [12][13][14] Group 3: Notable Investments and Market Impact - Shen Nanpeng's Sequoia China has invested in over 1500 companies, with more than 160 having gone public, reflecting a broad investment strategy across various sectors [15][16] - The investment landscape is increasingly characterized by a focus on technology and consumer sectors, with major players like Hillhouse and Sequoia leading the charge in identifying high-potential opportunities [15][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost increase in the mining end drives the rebound of bauxite prices, and the core depends on the persistence of the conflict between the US and Iran. The current bauxite price has reached the cost of small and medium - sized mines in Guinea, and attention should be paid to the price - support policies launched by the Guinean government. - In the short term, the increase in maintenance in the alumina smelting end leads to a tightening of supply, but the long - term oversupply pattern is difficult to change. - It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy. If the market sentiment drives up the futures price due to geopolitical risks, short positions can be established at high levels. The long - term oversupply pattern and the increase in warehouse receipt registration will continue to put pressure on the market price. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton. Key factors to focus on include domestic supply contraction policies, Guinean ore policies, and the US - Iran conflict. [12][13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of 3:00 pm on March 13, the alumina index rose 4.11% to 2962 yuan/ton this week, and the open interest decreased by 0.8 million lots to 4.5 million lots. The continuous conflict between the US and Iran has led to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, increasing global energy and shipping costs, driving up the CIF price of bauxite this week. The upward shift of cost support has led to the rebound of alumina futures prices. The Shandong spot price was reported at 2640 yuan/ton, at a discount of 322 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts closed at - 20 yuan/ton. - **Spot Price**: This week, alumina spot prices in various regions continued to rebound. Spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang increased by 15 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton respectively. Some production capacity maintenance continued, and the premium of the futures market led to an increase in the demand for delivery, resulting in a short - term tightening of the circulating spot. - **Inventory**: This week, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 48,000 tons to 5.72 million tons. Among them, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 26,000 tons, decreased by 10,000 tons, decreased by 13,000 tons, and increased by 45,000 tons respectively. The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 36,800 tons to 374,000 tons this week; the inventory in the delivery warehouse was 430,200 tons, an increase of 27,500 tons from last week. [11] 3.2 Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Price**: This week, alumina spot prices in various regions continued to rebound. Spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang increased by 15 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton respectively. Some production capacity maintenance continued, and the premium of the futures market led to an increase in the demand for delivery, resulting in a short - term tightening of the circulating spot. [20] - **Futures Price and Basis**: As of 3:00 pm on March 13, the alumina index rose 4.11% to 2962 yuan/ton this week, and the open interest decreased by 0.8 million lots to 4.5 million lots. The continuous conflict between the US and Iran has led to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, increasing global energy and shipping costs, driving up the CIF price of bauxite this week. The upward shift of cost support has led to the rebound of alumina futures prices. The Shandong spot price was reported at 2640 yuan/ton, at a discount of 322 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts closed at - 20 yuan/ton. [23] - **Bauxite Price**: For domestic mines, prices in various regions remained unchanged this week. For imported mines, the CIF price of Guinean bauxite increased by 1 US dollar/ton to 62 US dollars/ton, and the CIF price of Australian bauxite increased by 2 US dollars/ton to 57 US dollars/ton. The rebound of bauxite prices this week was mainly due to cost increases. The US - Iran conflict pushed up energy and shipping costs, and the new "labor - management agreement" in Guinea led to a general increase in miners' salaries. If oil prices and shipping costs remain high, miners may have difficulty passing on the new costs to downstream, potentially leading to the shutdown of some mines. In addition, the market传言 that the Guinean government will introduce policies to restrict ore exports to support prices, but the government has not made a clear statement. [28] 3.3 Supply Side - **Bauxite Production**: In February 2026, China's bauxite production was 4.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.92%. The total production in the first two months of 2026 was 10.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.16%. - **Bauxite Import**: In December 2025, China imported 14.67 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year decrease of 2.02% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.88%. The total import in the first twelve months of 2025 was 201.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.48%. In December 2025, China imported 11.36 million tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 9.4% and a month - on - month increase of 6.12%. The cumulative import in the first twelve months of 2025 was 149.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.32%. In December 2025, China imported 2.41 million tons of bauxite from Australia, a year - on - year decrease of 28.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 29.40%. The cumulative import in the first twelve months of 2025 was 37.42 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. - **Bauxite Inventory**: In February, China's bauxite inventory increased by 960,000 tons, and the total inventory reached 58.86 million tons, still at a high level in the past five years, with sufficient enterprise ore inventory. In key regions, the bauxite inventory in Shanxi increased by 70,000 tons, and that in Henan increased by 70,000 tons. The inventory increase mainly came from Shandong and Guangxi. - **Alumina Production**: In February 2026, alumina production was 7.13 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.77% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.52%. The cumulative production in the first two months of 2026 was 15.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.52%. As of March 13, 2026, the weekly alumina production was 1.785 million tons, a slight increase of 2,000 tons from last week. - **Alumina Plant Profit**: The rebound of alumina spot prices has led to a recovery of alumina plant profits. According to the alumina spot price on March 13, in Guangxi, with the relatively low price of local domestic mines, the current production profit can reach 120 yuan/ton. Relying on coastal advantages and relatively low liquid caustic soda prices, the profits of using Australian and Guinean ores in Shandong are 170 yuan/ton and 200 yuan/ton respectively. The cost of transporting imported ores from ports for inland alumina plants is about 100 yuan/ton. After calculation, using overseas ores in Shanxi results in a loss of 30 yuan/ton, while in Henan, it results in a profit of 60 yuan/ton. - **Alumina Import and Export**: In December 2025, the net import of alumina was 21,900 tons. The opening of the import window in the previous period drove the continuation of monthly net imports. Among them, the import volume decreased from 232,000 tons in the previous month to 228,000 tons, and the export volume increased from 168,000 tons to 210,000 tons. The total net export in the first twelve months of 2025 was 1.35 million tons. As of March 13, the weekly FOB price in Australia increased by 1 US dollar/ton to 304 US dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was 36 yuan/ton. The stronger rebound of domestic alumina prices led to a slight opening of the import window. - **Overseas Alumina Production**: In February 2026, overseas alumina production was 4.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.53% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.91%. The cumulative production in the first two months of 2026 was 10.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.59%. [32][34][36][38][41][43][44][47][49][51][53] 3.4 Demand Side - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In February 2026, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.31% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.71%. The total production in the first two months of 2026 was 7.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.25%. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operation**: In February 2026, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.84 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.13% to 97.08% in February. [58][61] 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance The report provides an alumina balance sheet from January to December 2026 (estimated), showing data on alumina supply and demand differences, total demand, total supply, net exports, exports, imports, electrolytic aluminum consumption of alumina, electrolytic aluminum production, electrolytic aluminum operating capacity, alumina production, and alumina operating capacity for each month. [64] 3.6 Inventory - **Alumina Social Inventory**: This week, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 48,000 tons to 5.72 million tons. Among them, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 26,000 tons, decreased by 10,000 tons, decreased by 13,000 tons, and increased by 45,000 tons respectively. - **Alumina Warehouse Receipt and Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 36,800 tons to 374,000 tons this week; the inventory in the delivery warehouse was 430,200 tons, an increase of 27,500 tons from last week. [69][71]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market remains tight at the mining end, with nickel prices expected to fluctuate. Although the supply - demand situation of nickel has improved, short - term geopolitical conflicts pose risks, and the high inventory level restricts price upward movement. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy within the price range [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: The nickel ore market is driven by "supply disturbances + policy disturbances". Philippine nickel ore prices have risen significantly due to rainfall and increased external demand, but downstream smelters are cautious in purchasing. In Indonesia, domestic trade ore prices continue to strengthen, and the logistics disturbances persist at the end of the rainy season [12]. - **Nickel iron**: High - nickel pig iron prices are strong. As of Friday, the average price of SMM 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rose to 1094.5 yuan/nickel point. The price is supported by rising nickel ore prices, and downstream demand has increased, driving up the market price [12]. - **Intermediate products**: MHP supply is restricted due to the landslide of the IMIP tailings dam and the unapproved IUI. The coefficient price has increased slightly. High - grade nickel matte remains in tight balance, with limited supply and strong seller price support. Sulfur prices are rising, strengthening cost support [12]. - **Refined nickel**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly this week. As of March 13, the main contract 2605 of Shanghai nickel closed at 136,930 yuan/ton, down 0.15% week - on - week. Spot transactions were weak, and the premium was stable. The macro - economic policy is positive, but the short - term interest rate cut expectation of the Federal Reserve is cautious. The overseas LME inventory is basically flat, and the domestic social inventory has increased by about 3,000 tons to about 87,000 tons. It is expected that the price will fluctuate, with the Shanghai nickel price range of 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton and the LME 3M contract range of 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton. It is recommended to trade within the range [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - **Price trend**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. As of March 13, the main contract 2605 of Shanghai nickel closed at 136,930 yuan/ton, down 0.15% week - on - week [17]. - **Premium**: The premium of imported nickel remained stable at a low level, indicating a loose spot market [20]. - **Price relationship**: Nickel iron prices were strong, and the premium of refined nickel over nickel iron was further repaired. The price of nickel sulfate remained stable following the nickel price [25]. 3.3 Cost Side - **Philippine nickel ore**: The port departure volume of Philippine nickel ore is at a seasonal low. The domestic nickel ore port inventory has been decreasing, reaching 8.5834 million tons as of March 13, a 7.1% decrease from last week. Nickel ore prices are strong, with the price of 1.6% grade nickel ore in Indonesia rising to 69.7 US dollars/ton and the price of wet - process ore rising to 25 US dollars/ton [30][32][35]. - **Nickel iron production**: In February, Indonesia's nickel iron production decreased by 15,000 tons to 124,000 tons month - on - month, and domestic nickel iron production remained at a low level of 21,000 tons [38]. - **Intermediate products**: In February, Indonesia's MHP and nickel matte production remained at a high level, with MHP production at 39,000 tons and nickel matte production at 41,000 tons. The coefficient price of intermediate products remained at a high level [42][45]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Production**: In February 2026, the national refined nickel production was 32,600 tons, a decrease of 2,625 tons compared with December 2025 [52]. - **Demand**: In February 2026, domestic stainless steel production was 2.3444 million tons, a decrease of 687,700 tons from January. This week, the inventory level decreased slightly by 8,693 tons to 1.086 million tons [55]. - **Import and export**: Global refined nickel inventory continues to increase, mainly in domestic social inventory. As of March 13, the Shanghai bonded area inventory was about 2,200 tons, unchanged from last week, and the domestic social inventory was about 87,000 tons, an increase of about 3,000 tons from last week [61]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: The supply of nickel sulfate remained stable [66]. - **Demand**: The demand for nickel sulfate is at a seasonal high [69]. - **Profit margin**: The production profit margin of nickel sulfate fluctuates around the break - even point [72]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides a detailed supply - demand balance table from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, including production, consumption, and inventory data of various nickel products. The global primary nickel supply exceeds demand, and the supply - demand gap and its proportion are increasing. The supply - demand gap of refined nickel also shows an increasing trend in general, and the global refined nickel inventory is on the rise [75].