基金双周报：ETF市场跟踪报告 证券分析师 | 陈 | 瑶 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120003 | | --- | --- | --- | | 郭子睿 | | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520070003 | | 任书康 | | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060525050001 | | 研究助理 | | | | 高 | 越 | 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070014 | | 胡心怡 | | 一般从业资格编号：S1060124030069 | 证券研究报告 2025年6月30日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 报告摘要 2 ETF市场回顾： • 收益表现与资金流向：近两周ETF产品整体表现较好。主要宽基ETF中，创业板指ETF涨幅最大，行业与主题产品中，金融地产行业ETF涨幅最大。近两周， 主要宽基ETF中，中证A500、中证1000、科创50ETF资金净流入，沪深300ETF资金净流出额最大。科技ETF在年初大幅流出后，自3月起转为资金流入，近两 周资金流入速度有所减缓，医药和金融地产ETF资金由净流出转为净流入，军工ETF资金流入速度放缓。债券ETF方面，受债市反弹影响，信用债ETF资金加 ...

Group 1 - A total of 8 Hong Kong companies launched their IPOs on June 30, including companies from various sectors such as robotics, semiconductors, and biomedicine [1] - In the first half of 2025, Hong Kong welcomed 43 new IPOs, a 43.3% increase from 30 in the same period of 2024, with total funds raised amounting to approximately HKD 1,067.1 billion [2][4] - The top three IPOs by fundraising in the first half of 2025 were Ningde Times, Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, and Hai Tian Wei Ye, raising HKD 410.1 billion, HKD 113.7 billion, and HKD 101.3 billion respectively, accounting for 58.6% of the total IPO fundraising [7][8] Group 2 - The healthcare and consumer discretionary sectors had the highest number of new listings in 2025, with 10 and 8 companies respectively, while the industrial sector led in fundraising [9] - Among the 43 new IPOs, 27 companies saw their stock prices rise on the first day of trading, resulting in a first-day drop rate of 30.2% [9][10] - The most significant first-day price increases were recorded by Ying En Biotechnology-B and Yao Jie An Kang-B, with gains of 116.7% and 78.7% respectively [10][12] Group 3 - The IPO subscription rates were notably high, with several companies experiencing over 1,000 times subscription, including Bluco, which had a subscription rate of 6,000 times [13][14] - A total of 35 out of 43 companies triggered the allocation mechanism, indicating a higher success rate for companies that utilized this strategy [16] - As of June 30, 2025, there were 134 companies that received approval for overseas IPOs, with over 160 companies currently in the queue for Hong Kong IPOs [18]

The provided content does not include any quantitative models or factors, nor does it discuss their construction, evaluation, or backtesting results. The report primarily focuses on fund market performance, fund issuance, ESG products, and ETF market trends. There are no references to quantitative models or factors in the provided documents.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the consumer and manufacturing sectors, while expressing optimism for technology and financial sectors [4]. Core Insights - The global economy is expected to show a convergence in economic momentum between the US and non-US regions, driven by a slowdown in the US economy [2]. - The report highlights that while the overall performance in Q1 2025 was strong, future concerns include tariff impacts, growth slowdowns, and high funding costs affecting corporate profitability [2]. - Emerging markets are seen as having marginally favorable conditions due to a weaker dollar, looser monetary policies, and relatively low valuations, although high-interest environments may constrain absolute performance [3]. Regional Outlook - The report is optimistic about opportunities in non-US regions, particularly Europe, while suggesting a balanced allocation strategy due to expected regional performance differentiation being less pronounced than in the first half of the year [3]. - In Europe, recent policy shifts are expected to support internal risk appetite recovery, despite trade uncertainties [3]. - Japan's market outlook is cautious due to weak local policies and economic growth, although structural opportunities remain as the country emerges from deflation [3]. Industry Outlook - The report indicates a preference for technology sectors (communication, software, advertising) and industrial sectors (power equipment, automation) for the second half of 2025, while maintaining caution towards consumer sectors and commodities [4]. - The technology sector, excluding electronics, and financial sectors are expected to outperform, while consumer and upstream materials are relatively weaker [4]. - The report notes that companies in the consumer, financial, and localized services sectors are less affected by tariffs, while manufacturing and bulk materials face significant impacts [4].

Macro Environment Outlook - Domestic demand recovery is slowing, but external demand is performing better than expected. In the first five months of 2025, China's exports increased by 6.0% year-on-year, significantly higher than the 2.7% level in the same period of 2024, indicating an ongoing optimization of the export structure [13][14][16] - The investment sector still relies on manufacturing and infrastructure, while the real estate sector continues to decline due to supply and demand constraints. Consumption shows structural differentiation, with categories covered by the "two new" policies, such as home appliances and electronics, performing significantly better than those not covered [14][18] Equity Market Outlook - The equity market is expected to continue a slight upward trend in Q3 2025, driven by long-term capital entering the market. The overall macro environment is weak, and the market is focusing on investment opportunities in the longer-term industrial lifecycle, particularly in technology [18][19] - Recommended sectors for Q3 include dividend-related sectors (banks, insurance, securities) and consumer sectors with fundamental support. The previously adjusted technology sector is also expected to see opportunities for recovery [19][20] Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is anticipated to maintain a loose funding environment in Q3, with a high likelihood of interest rate cuts in the US, which may lead to domestic rate cuts and a downward shift in the overall government bond yield curve. The long-end yield curve is expected to decline further, suggesting a focus on long-duration, medium to high-grade bonds [19][20] Commodity Market Outlook - Oil prices may continue to rise in the short term due to Middle Eastern tensions, but are expected to stabilize at a new level in the medium to long term. Gold prices are projected to remain relatively stable in Q3, with its long-term upward logic still valid as a hedge against weakening dollar credit [19][20] Investment Recommendations - The overall asset allocation recommendation is ranked as follows: equities > commodities > bonds > cash. For cautious, stable, aggressive, and high-risk portfolios, the recommended allocation for equity funds is around 20%, with a higher allocation to the CSI 500 compared to the CSI 300. The bond fund allocation is suggested to be around 5%, and the allocation for gold is recommended at 70% [6][19]

Market Performance - Hong Kong stock market indices rose collectively, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 3.2% to close at 24,284.15 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 4.06% to 5,341.43 points, and the National Enterprises Index rising by 2.76% to 8,762.47 points during the week of June 27 [2] - The IPO market in Hong Kong is experiencing a surge, with several companies successfully listing or initiating the IPO process, including Sanhua Intelligent Control, which officially listed on June 23 [2] IPO Trends - The first half of 2023 saw a staggering 711% year-on-year increase in IPO fundraising in Hong Kong, with many new listings coming from the technology sector [2] - Nearly 20 technology companies, including leading firms in AI and robotics, are currently pursuing listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3] Policy Environment - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has been continuously optimizing its listing policies for technology companies, including the introduction of Chapter 18A in 2018 for unprofitable biotech firms and Chapter 18C in 2023 for various specialized tech companies [4] - Recent initiatives by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and the Stock Exchange allow for confidential listing applications for certain tech firms, further lowering the barriers to entry for these companies [4] Financial Cooperation - The People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced six measures to deepen financial cooperation between Hong Kong and mainland China, including optimizing cross-border financial services [5] Investment Opportunities - Hong Kong's status as a global financial hub provides technology companies access to a diverse range of investors, essential for funding high R&D costs and business expansion [6] - The IPO market is expected to continue to be driven by a "technology + consumer" dual engine, with AI and its applications likely to dominate [6] Financial Challenges - Many technology companies seeking to list in Hong Kong face challenges such as poor profitability and ongoing losses, which are common in sectors focused on high R&D investments [7] - For instance, Beijing Haizhi Technology Group reported significant losses while pursuing its IPO, highlighting the financial struggles faced by tech firms [8] Globalization Strategy - The globalization strategy of technology companies is a significant factor driving their decision to list in Hong Kong, as it allows them to build an international capital platform and enhance their global market presence [10] - Companies like Qunhe Technology are explicitly stating that part of their IPO proceeds will be used for international expansion, targeting markets in the U.S., South Korea, Japan, and Southeast Asia [11] Market Dynamics - The flexibility of Hong Kong's capital market mechanisms makes it an attractive option for technology firms needing to raise funds, especially in light of tightening financing conditions in other markets [9] - The ability to connect with global supply chains and attract international clients through a Hong Kong listing is seen as a crucial advantage for tech companies aiming for global operations [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market trends, focusing on the performance of various sectors, particularly technology and healthcare, and the valuation of indices in the Hong Kong stock market. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall market showed little fluctuation, closing at 4.9 stars [1] - Major indices like the CSI 300 experienced slight declines, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 saw minor increases [2] - The banking index, which had previously surged, faced significant declines, impacting large-cap stocks, alongside a downturn in the consumer sector [3] - Technology and healthcare sectors experienced overall gains [4] - The Hong Kong stock market exhibited minimal volatility [5] Group 2: Healthcare Sector Analysis - The Hong Kong healthcare index has recently corrected after a period of high growth, returning to normal valuation levels [6][31] - The healthcare industry is categorized into three common sub-sectors: medical services, biotechnology, and innovative pharmaceuticals [6] - Medical services include hospitals and medical devices, while biotechnology focuses on gene diagnostics and biopharmaceuticals [6][7] - The innovative pharmaceuticals sector primarily involves drug development, with many companies operating in both biotechnology and innovative pharmaceuticals [7] Group 3: Valuation Trends - The article outlines a "smile curve" concept, indicating that during periods of slowing growth or declining profits, valuations and stock prices tend to decrease [17] - The Hong Kong technology sector was the first to enter a recovery phase, with significant profit growth observed in 2024 after a steep decline of over 60% from 2021 to 2022 [19][20] - The healthcare sector followed a similar recovery pattern, with profit growth resuming in late 2023 and early 2024, leading to an increase in valuations [23] - The Hang Seng Index reported a 16% year-on-year profit growth in Q1 2024, indicating a dual effect of performance recovery and valuation increase [24] Group 4: Future Outlook - If the Hong Kong market maintains similar profit growth rates in Q2 as in Q1, further increases in stock prices may be anticipated [25] - The A-share market is expected to enter a recovery phase, albeit later than the Hong Kong market, with profit growth also observed in Q1 2024 [27][28] - Long-term projections suggest that returns from A-shares and Hong Kong stocks will be comparable, despite differing phases of market movements [30] Group 5: Index Valuation - After recent short-term increases, both the Hong Kong technology and healthcare sectors have returned to normal valuation levels, though they are not far from being undervalued [31][32] - A valuation table for Hong Kong indices is provided, indicating various metrics such as P/E ratios and dividend yields [36][37]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share total market value has reached a historical high primarily due to the valuation recovery of quality blue-chip stocks, which continues to provide upward momentum for the market value [1][2][3] - Valuation recovery reflects a rational correction of the market towards the intrinsic value of quality enterprises, aligning stock prices more closely with their profitability and growth potential [1][2] - The influx of capital into core asset stocks has driven up their prices, significantly contributing to the overall increase in A-share market value, particularly in sectors like consumption and finance [1][2] Group 2 - Valuation recovery not only contributes to the current high of the A-share total market value but also lays a solid foundation for future market development, enhancing overall market quality [2][3] - The recovery of blue-chip stock valuations is expected to attract more long-term capital into the market, creating a virtuous cycle that optimizes resource allocation towards more competitive enterprises [2] - Future prospects indicate that if the valuation of quality blue-chip stocks continues to rise, the A-share total market value is likely to keep increasing, supported by steady economic recovery and ongoing policy support [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent data from the central bank indicates a significant outflow of bank deposits, with a total decrease of 2.46 trillion yuan in the first five months of the year, contrasting with an increase of 987.3 billion yuan in the same period last year. The month of May alone saw a direct evaporation of 1.17 trillion yuan in deposits, marking four consecutive months of net outflow, raising concerns about the declining attractiveness of bank deposits, particularly for small and medium-sized banks [1]. Group 1: Reasons for Deposit Outflow - The continuous reduction of bank deposit interest rates over the past two years has led to rates dropping to historical lows in the "1 era," prompting depositors to seek better returns elsewhere [4]. - Many depositors are increasingly investing in bank wealth management products, with a notable increase of 2.1 trillion yuan in April, bringing the total scale to 31.3 trillion yuan, as the annualized yield of these products (2.4%-2.8%) significantly exceeds that of traditional bank deposits [6]. - A substantial portion of the outflow, approximately 33.4% or 820 billion yuan, has been redirected to the A-share market, with new retail investor accounts surging by 62.3%, adding 8.73 million new investors [9]. - Public funds have seen a dramatic increase, with the total scale surpassing 29.7 trillion yuan by the end of May, reflecting a 3.6 trillion yuan increase since the beginning of the year, as many individuals prefer professional management over direct stock investments [12]. - Some individuals are withdrawing deposits to pay off mortgages early, motivated by the disparity between previous mortgage rates (5.88%) and current rates (around 3%), as well as declining property values [14]. Group 2: Impact on Consumption - The decline in deposit interest income has led some depositors to increase their consumption, contributing to a recovery in the low-end consumer market, with retail sales reaching 19.3 trillion yuan in the first five months, a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [16]. - While low-end consumption is rebounding, demand for high-end goods such as automobiles, luxury items, and real estate remains sluggish, indicating a mixed recovery in consumer spending [16].

智通财经APP获悉，2025年6月25日当天，国泰君安国际(01788)、中芯国际(00981)、小米集团- W(01810)位居沪港通（南向）成交额前3位，成交额分别为134.25 亿元、41.45 亿元、30.79 亿元；国泰 君安国际(01788)、中芯国际(00981)、小米集团-W(01810) 位居深港通（南向）成交额前3位，成交额分 别为44.47 亿元、30.02 亿元、19.42 亿元。 | 公司名称 | 成交金额 | 净买入额 | | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安国际(01788) | 134.25 亿元 | +13.69 亿元 | | 中芯国际(00981) | 41.45 亿元 | +7.39 亿元 | | 小米集团-W(01810) | 30.79 亿元 | -4.16 亿元 | | 弘业期货(03678) | 25.64 亿元 | +7029.85 万元 | | 阿里巴巴-W(09988) | 22.53 亿元 | +8892.90 万元 | | 腾讯控股(00700) | 20.19 亿元 | -2.35 亿元 | | 美团-W(03690) | 18.20 ...