Economic Growth Overview - Cameroon’s GDP growth for Q4 2024 is projected at 1.6%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from 2.2% in the same period of 2023 [1] - The slowdown in economic growth is primarily attributed to the decline in the secondary sector, which shrank from 1.1% to -0.7% during the same period [1] Sector Performance - The mining and extraction sector experienced a significant contraction of 19.2%, contributing to the overall decline in the secondary sector [1] - The extraction industry has been in recession since Q2 2023, facing challenges from aging oil fields and international price fluctuations [1] Revenue Adjustments - The government has revised its expected revenue for 2025 from an initial budget of 734.8 billion CFA francs (approximately $1.225 billion) down to 641.5 billion CFA francs (approximately $1.069 billion), reflecting a reduction of 93.3 billion CFA francs (12.7% decrease) [1] Resilience in Other Sectors - The tertiary sector showed strong performance with a growth rate of 4.4%, while the primary sector grew by 3% [2] - Growth in the tertiary sector is driven by robust development in financial and administrative services, while the primary sector benefits from strong outputs in food crops, export agricultural products, fisheries, and livestock [2] Structural Limitations - The weakness in the secondary sector highlights the structural limitations of Cameroon’s economy, which remains heavily reliant on the export of primary raw materials and lacks local deep processing capabilities [2]

Group 1 - The UK services sector index for May showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, aligning with expectations of 0.10% [1] - The previous value was revised from -0.40% to -0.3%, indicating a slight improvement in the services sector [1]

Group 1 - The current A-share market is entering a critical phase of new and old kinetic energy conversion, with the market index performing stronger than expected due to improving mid-term pessimistic factors and increasing confidence in the conversion process [1][9]. - The four-stage framework of new and old kinetic energy conversion includes: "new and old interweaving," "new surpassing old," "the last song of the old," and "the new era," with the A-share market currently in the "new surpassing old" stage [4][9]. - The "new" elements include the potential rise of Hong Kong stocks as new core assets, the importance of overseas expansion for A-share growth, advancements in hardware technology (AI semiconductors, military, innovative drugs), and a new consumption investment model centered around the New Consumption 50 [4][9]. Group 2 - The comparison with Japan's experience in the early 2010s highlights the need for external demand to support industrial restructuring, as Japanese companies increasingly sought overseas expansion to overcome domestic market saturation [3][35]. - Japan's new and old kinetic energy conversion was supported by internal demand recovery, characterized by rising corporate profitability, completed deleveraging, and increasing disposable income, which laid the foundation for moderate domestic recovery [53][59]. - The Japanese real estate market stabilized post-2012, contributing to internal demand recovery and economic confidence, with core city property prices rebounding and office vacancy rates declining [64][68]. Group 3 - The stock market performance during Japan's new and old kinetic energy conversion was closely linked to improvements in total factor productivity (TFP), which drove systematic valuation increases in the Nikkei index [74][75]. - The current A-share market is expected to experience a similar trajectory, with the conversion process potentially leading to a sustained upward shift in market confidence and index levels [40].

Group 1: Economic Policy and Supply-Side Reform - The current supply-side adjustment in China is expected to be milder compared to the previous round, but may take longer and involve a wider range of industries[2] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to guide enterprises to improve product quality and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, which is crucial for balancing supply and demand[4] - Historical experiences indicate that large-scale capacity reduction leads to a rapid decline in production factor costs and enhances the competitiveness of leading enterprises, ultimately stabilizing prices[5] Group 2: Demand-Side Measures and Consumer Confidence - Recent policies, such as birth subsidies and trade-in incentives, are being implemented to alleviate short-term financial pressures on families and enhance their willingness to have children[6] - Fiscal transfer payments are most effective in boosting long-term consumption when targeted at financially constrained households, as they have a higher marginal propensity to consume[7] - A stable and sustainable economic growth requires simultaneous efforts on both supply and demand sides, ensuring policy strength and predictability[8] Group 3: Asset Prices and Economic Impact - The interaction between rising asset prices and the real economy is still in its early stages, with recent "anti-involution" policies potentially improving fundamental expectations[9] - The ongoing expansion of active credit is crucial for maintaining a strong performance in equity markets, with a focus on the stability of financing balances across society[11] - Historical cases show that asset price increases can lead to recovery in the real sector demand, but also risk tightening regulations if bubbles form[10] Group 4: U.S. Economic Resilience - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with June's non-farm employment increasing by 147,000, slightly above expectations[13] - The unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a stable labor market[16] - Market expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts have slightly decreased, with anticipated cuts of approximately 54 basis points later in the year[17]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI - In June, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%, up from 49.5% in the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [1] - The production index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 51%, while the new orders index rose by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2%, suggesting improving demand [1] - The current PMI is primarily affected by the backlog of finished goods inventory, but as inventory is gradually digested, new order growth momentum is expected to be released further [1] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI - The non-manufacturing PMI for June was 50.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value [1] - The construction PMI rose by 1.8 percentage points to 52.8%, likely linked to the acceleration of "two heavy" projects and stronger policies to stabilize the real estate market [1] - The service sector PMI slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points to 50.1%, possibly due to reduced offline travel activity after holiday effects [1] Group 3: Government Debt Supply and Funding - In the first half of the year, the fiscal supply was robust, with 6.66 trillion yuan of government bonds issued, representing 51% of the annual quota [3] - Local government special bond issuance accelerated in June, with 4.4 trillion yuan of new quotas, and 48% already issued [3] - The overall issuance volume is expected to remain stable in the second half, with a projected issuance of 5.8 trillion yuan, keeping liquidity pressure manageable [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The third quarter is expected to see a peak in local government special bond issuance, which may enhance funding for local-led projects [4] - The central bank's monetary policy tools are anticipated to support financing for "two heavy" and "two new" projects, potentially increasing infrastructure investment [4] - The economic recovery remains weak, with external demand showing marginal improvement, but internal economic momentum still requires strengthening [5]

Core Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June 2025 is at 49.7%, indicating a slight improvement but still within a downward trend [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.5%, showing continued expansion [1] - The central bank's monetary policy committee suggests increasing regulatory intensity to maintain ample liquidity and support key sectors [1] Manufacturing Sector - The production and new orders indices are at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, reflecting a rise of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points [1] - The purchasing volume index increased to 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points [1] - Price indices for major raw materials show a rebound, with purchasing and factory gate price indices at 48.4% and 46.2%, rising by 1.5 percentage points [1] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The construction business activity index is at 52.8%, up by 1.8 percentage points, indicating high activity in civil engineering [1] - The service sector business activity index is stable at 50.1%, with some industries experiencing high activity while others see a decline [1] - The business activity expectation index is in a high range, suggesting optimism among enterprises [1] Monetary Policy - The central bank announced a 300 billion MLF operation on June 25, with a net injection of 118 billion, marking four consecutive months of excess renewal [1] - The monetary policy is expected to expand domestic demand and stabilize growth in the second half of the year, with MLF likely to continue increasing [1] - The focus is on supporting private and small enterprises, revitalizing existing resources, and stabilizing the real estate market [1]

Core Insights - The global economy is facing multiple challenges, revealing its vulnerabilities under the uncertainty of US policies. Issues such as regionalism, inflation, debt pressure, and structured risks in asset valuations are still unfolding. The continuous depreciation of the US dollar has made European and emerging markets more attractive to capital, while precious metals like gold have seen significant price increases, indicating a reshaping of the global market. In response to the current market environment, it is advised to focus on certainty and make asset allocations based on a high safety margin [1][16][21]. Market Overview - As of June 29, 2025, global equity assets performed well, with MSCI global returns at 4.01% and emerging markets at 6.15%, slightly outperforming developed markets. The domestic market also showed strong performance, with the CSI All Share Index yielding 3.13%, particularly driven by growth stocks which rose by 4.87% [7][13]. - The global economic pressure remains significant, with manufacturing PMI in some regions still below the expansion threshold, indicating risks of a peak in the global economic growth cycle. Concurrently, US stocks have seen valuations driven up by AI and buybacks, which has weakened corporate resilience [19][20]. Asset Allocation Strategy - **Equity Funds**: The strategy should focus on a "core + opportunities" approach, balancing safety and returns. Core allocations should prioritize high earnings certainty, high profits, and high dividends, while opportunity allocations should leverage policy implementation, confidence-driven investments, and technology empowerment [3][30]. - **Fixed Income Funds**: It is recommended to lower expectations while seeking stable returns. Mid to short-duration funds are seen as more cost-effective, as the market's excessive pursuit of long-duration bonds has diminished their risk-return profile [3][4]. - **QDII Funds**: Attention should be paid to marginal changes affecting expectations. For equity QDII, caution is advised regarding structured valuation risks, while for oil QDII, geopolitical factors are becoming increasingly significant. Gold QDII is expected to perform well in the medium to long term due to ongoing demand for safe-haven assets [4][37][40]. Domestic Economic Insights - The domestic economy has shown resilience, with a GDP growth of 5.4% in Q1 2025, driven by consumption and exports. Industrial value-added growth was steady at 5.8%, with significant contributions from sectors like new energy vehicles and robotics [21][28]. - Consumer spending has been robust, with retail sales in May growing by 6.4% year-on-year, supported by government subsidies and promotional activities. However, structural income disparities remain a challenge for sustained consumption growth [26][28]. Commodity Market Dynamics - Geopolitical issues and inflation have been influencing global commodity prices. The escalation of conflicts has pushed oil prices higher, while the depreciation of the dollar has led to fluctuations in gold prices. Future trading logic for oil and gold will likely continue to be driven by geopolitical and risk-averse sentiments [37][49]. - The long-term stability of oil prices will depend on global economic growth and demand, with current PMI data indicating potential declines in demand. The supply side, particularly OPEC+ production decisions, will also play a crucial role in short-term price movements [45][49].

Employment Data - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 110,000[1] - The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, primarily due to a rebound in household employment from -696,000 to 93,000[1] - The labor force participation rate declined by 0.1 percentage points, potentially due to immigration policies[1] Wage and Hourly Earnings - Hourly wage growth slowed to 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%[1] - The three-month annualized growth rate of hourly wages decreased from 3.6% to 3.2%[5] - Average weekly hours worked fell to 34.2 hours, down from 34.3 hours[6] Sector Performance - Private sector job growth weakened, with a decline of 63,000 jobs to 74,000 in June, particularly in the service sector[5] - Government employment surged, contributing over half of the new jobs, with state and local government jobs rising significantly from 32,000 to 80,000[5] - The service sector saw a notable slowdown, with education and healthcare services declining by 32,000 jobs to 51,000[5] Market Implications - Due to the stronger-than-expected employment data, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July decreased, with market pricing for cumulative rate cuts in 2025 falling by 10 basis points to 51 basis points[1] - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year and 10-year yields increasing by 12 basis points and 8 basis points, respectively, to 3.88% and 4.34%[1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong private sector is experiencing a further contraction, with the S&P Global Hong Kong Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropping from 49 in May to 47.8, marking the largest decline since April 2022 [1] - New orders for businesses have decreased for five consecutive months, attributed to tight customer budgets and uncertainty in U.S. trade policies, leading to a significant reduction in business activity [1] - The production output has seen its most notable decline in a year, as both domestic and overseas business volumes have sharply reduced compared to May [1] Group 2 - Companies are cautiously managing employee recruitment due to concerns about business prospects, with pessimism among businesses reaching its highest level since September 2020 [1] - Input costs have risen, but the increase is the smallest since February 2021, with wage inflation slowing down helping to suppress cost increases [1] - The overall business confidence has dropped to its lowest level in nearly five years, raising concerns about the future performance of the sector [2]

Core Insights - In June, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%, indicating a recovery in manufacturing demand and overall economic resilience, supported by effective economic policies [1][2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stood at 50.5%, while the comprehensive PMI output index reached 50.7%, both showing improvements compared to the previous month [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI indicates that 11 out of 21 surveyed industries are in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month, suggesting an overall improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2] - The production index and new orders index were at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing month-on-month increases, reflecting accelerated production activities and improved market demand [2] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw a PMI of 48.6%, up 1.1 percentage points, indicating a positive trend in business sentiment [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The construction business activity index rose to 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, driven by a significant recovery in civil engineering projects, which indicates a faster pace of infrastructure construction [4] - The service sector business activity index slightly decreased to 50.1%, attributed to the fading effects of holiday consumption, particularly in retail, transportation, and hospitality [4] Future Outlook - The service and construction sectors maintain optimistic business activity expectations, with indices at 56.0% and 53.9%, respectively, indicating a positive outlook for industry development [4] - Analysts expect that with continued policy support and potential new measures, the manufacturing PMI is likely to improve further in the second half of the year [5]