Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, short - term supply - demand shows marginal improvement, but the overall fundamental situation remains weak without policy intervention. For polysilicon, it is affected by both a weak fundamental situation with significantly weakened consumption and policy disturbances, leading to amplified price fluctuations [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On July 3, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a weak oscillation. The main contract 2509 opened at 8185 yuan/ton and closed at 8010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton (-0.93%) compared to the previous settlement. The open interest of the main contract 2509 was 380,840 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on July 4 was 51,854 lots, a decrease of 62 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - **Spot**: The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 8600 - 8800 (50) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 8900 - 9100 (50) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 8000 - 8200 (50) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8000 - 8100 (0) yuan/ton. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on July 3 was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to last week [1]. - **Consumption**: The weekly output of silicone DMC decreased slightly. The monthly output in July is expected to increase slightly, and the demand for industrial silicon is fair. The weekly operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises weakened slightly due to weak orders in the off - season [2]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Mainly conduct range operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices. - **Others**: No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options are provided [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On July 3, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures showed a strong performance, opening at 35,700 yuan/ton and closing at 35,050 yuan/ton, with a closing price increase of 2.14% compared to the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract was 76,908 lots (95,005 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 482,063 lots [4]. - **Spot**: The polysilicon spot price remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 32.00 - 33.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material was 30.00 - 32.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; polysilicon cauliflower material was 28.00 - 31.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, N - type material was 36.00 - 36.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 34.00 - 34.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory increased slightly, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased slightly. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.20 (a 0.74% change), silicon wafer inventory was 19.22GW (a - 4.43% change), polysilicon weekly output was 24,000.00 tons (a 1.69% change), and silicon wafer output was 11.90GW (a - 11.46% change) [4][5]. - **Silicon Wafer, Battery Cell, and Component**: The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm, N - type 210mm, and N - type 210R silicon wafers, as well as various types of battery cells and components, remained mostly stable [5]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Others**: No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options are provided. Attention should be paid to the subsequent implementation of policies, and there may still be some pressure at 36,000 yuan/ton based on the current fundamentals [6].

如何看待硅料价格拐点及弹性？20250703 摘要 多晶硅行业自 2024 年 4 月起，价格已跌破行业平均成本，至 2025 年 7 月初，行业平均盈利水平已持续亏损一年，尽管工业硅降价带来成本 改善，但整体仍处于亏损状态。 硅料在光伏组件中的成本占比显著降低，2024 年底已降至 10%左右， 低于电池片浆料和组件封装环节的光伏玻璃成本占比。 多晶硅企业降本最具性价比的措施是降低能耗，其次是降低原材料消耗， 电力和原材料是主要成本来源，而硅耗的降本空间相对有限。 多晶硅产量随价格下跌而缓步下滑，自 2024 年 5 月起月产出环比下降， 2025 年二季度月均产出约 9.5 至 10 万吨，开工率不足 40%，库存超 过三个月，约 30 多万吨。 短期内全球光伏装机增速放缓，但长期需求广阔，新一轮高速增长周期 依赖电网改造和购网型储能普及，供需矛盾预计 2026 年改善，2027- 2028 年恢复合理水平。 多晶硅行业拐点关注指标包括各环节行业库存及落后产能出清，以及头 部企业资本开支和投产规划，头部企业大规模投放新产能通常预示行业 拐点临近。 测算显示，硅料价格上涨对组件价格和电站收益率的影响较小，即 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable, but the demand side is under great pressure due to weak downstream demand and high inventory levels. The market sentiment has improved recently due to the issuance of the photovoltaic desert control plan in the three - north desert areas. In the short term, one can buy put options for protection and follow the long position, while in the medium - to - long - term, shorting at high levels is recommended [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 35,050 yuan/ton with no change. The main polysilicon position is 76,908 lots, a decrease of 18,097 lots. The price difference between polysilicon in August - September is 745 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton. The price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 27,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 36,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan/ton. The basis of polysilicon is 950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 850 yuan/ton. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.22 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.03 US dollars/kg. The average prices of cauliflower, dense, and re - feeding polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 33 yuan/kg respectively, with increases of 2 yuan/kg, 6.5 yuan/kg, and 2 yuan/kg [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The spot price of industrial silicon is 8,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 299,700 tons, a decrease of 36,050 tons. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons. The monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon is 542,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons. The monthly import volume of polysilicon is 793 tons, a decrease of 161 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 4.89 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.01 US dollars/kg. The monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 US dollars/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,569,000 kilowatts, a decrease of 1,359,000 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 103,399,980 pieces, an increase of 19,610,660 pieces. The monthly import volume is 12,098,490 pieces, a decrease of 8,021,950 pieces. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.29 US dollars/piece, an increase of 0.02 US dollars/piece. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 21.67, with no change [2] Industry News - As of July 2, the mainstream market prices of P - type cauliflower polysilicon, N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type granular silicon, and N - type polysilicon are stable. The US Senate Republican leader plans to vote on a bill that restricts new energy, affecting the demand for the new energy industry. Under the guidance of the sixth financial and economic committee, leading photovoltaic enterprises have cut production by 30%, and polysilicon prices have risen [2] Inventory - Polysilicon inventory is at a high level. Silicon wafer enterprises have not fully digested the previously purchased polysilicon, leading to inventory backlog and suppressing market prices [2]

涨跌都能赚 盈利就能离场！点击开通期货"T+0、双向交易"特权！>>> "反内卷"政策持续发酵，黑色建材、能源金属等涨幅居前，铁矿、多晶硅、焦炭等涨超2%！多晶硅盘中一度涨超4%，但午后小幅 跳水，涨幅缩窄至2%附近。 继周三涨停之后，周四多晶硅涨幅收窄，盘中先跌后涨，截至发稿前涨幅在3%以上。光大期货分析称，现货企业报价同步上调， SMM多晶硅N型硅料价格涨至36000元/吨，最低交割品N型硅料价格涨至36000元/吨，现货对主力升水收至950元/吨。 从背后驱动因素来看，本周多晶硅大涨主要与政策提到的反内卷预期有关，市场普遍认为去产能行动大幕开启，多晶硅限产落地有 望提速，提振盘面价格。在短期情绪刺激下，多晶硅价格实现触底反弹，生产利润略得到修复。2.基本面来看，据SMM调研，7月 组件排产环比-2%至45-46GW基本符合预期，光伏终端订单走弱，下游电池片企业采购意愿依然偏弱，自下而上承压。而上游西南 部分企业月内有复产预期，预计硅料整体供给将小幅增长，行业累库风险或继续增长，价格的下行驱动依然较强。短期政策主导市 场情绪，且一时难以证伪，盘面或维持偏强表现。但在价格抬升给到企业套保利润后，中期价格或有 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Interval operation is the main strategy, and upstream companies should sell hedging at high prices. Unilateral is neutral. [2][8] - Polysilicon: Unilateral is neutral. There are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations. [8] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: On July 2, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose significantly. Short - term supply - demand margin improved due to large factories' production cuts and a slight increase in downstream production schedules, but the high total industry inventory led to hedging pressure after the rebound. The market was affected by policy expectations, and short - term observation was recommended. [1][2] - Polysilicon: On July 2, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract hit the daily limit. Affected by policies and industry self - discipline, leading companies uniformly raised quotes, but the supply - demand fundamentals remained weak. Policy game had a large impact, and participants needed to manage risks and follow up on policy implementation. [2][6] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - Futures: On July 2, 2025, the main contract 2509 opened at 7,805 yuan/ton and closed at 8,210 yuan/ton, up 4.79% from the previous settlement. The closing position was 386,361 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 51,916 lots, a decrease of 221 lots from the previous day. [1] - Supply: The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly. The prices of some silicon in different regions increased, while the price of 97 - silicon remained stable. [1] - Consumption: The domestic monomer enterprise's operation rate continued to increase slightly, reaching about 70%. It was expected that the DMC production schedule in July would increase by about 10,000 tons, increasing the consumption of industrial silicon. [1] Polysilicon - Futures: On July 2, 2025, the main contract 2508 hit the daily limit, opening at 33,350 yuan/ton and closing at 35,050 yuan/ton, up 6.99%. The position was 95,005 lots, and the trading volume was 411,586 lots. [2] - Spot: The spot quotes of polysilicon were raised. The N - type polysilicon price index rose by 2 yuan/kg to 36 yuan/kg, with a daily increase of 5.88%, but there was no spot transaction. [2][6] - Inventory and Production: Polysilicon inventory was 27.00, a month - on - month increase of 3.05%; silicon wafer inventory was 20.11GW, a month - on - month increase of 7.30%. The weekly polysilicon production was 23,600.00 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.67%; the silicon wafer production was 13.44GW, a month - on - month increase of 4.10%. [4] Silicon Wafer, Battery Chip, and Component - Silicon Wafer: The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm, N - type 210mm, and N - type 210R silicon wafers remained unchanged. [4] - Battery Chip: The prices of various types of battery chips remained unchanged. [4] - Component: The mainstream transaction prices of various types of components remained unchanged. [5] Strategy Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Interval operation is the main strategy, and upstream companies should sell hedging at high prices. [2] - Others: There are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations. [2][3] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Neutral. [8] - Others: There are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations. [8] Risk Factors Industrial Silicon - Re - production and new capacity investment in the northwest and southwest regions. - Changes in polysilicon enterprise operation rates. - Policy disturbances. - Macroeconomic and capital sentiment. - Operation conditions of organic silicon enterprises. [3] Polysilicon - Impact of industry self - discipline on upstream and downstream operation rates. - Impact of futures listing on the spot market. - Impact of capital sentiment. - Impact of policy disturbances. [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the stock index futures market, the concept of "anti - involution competition" is emerging, boosting policy expectations. The market is in the first stage of trading policy expectations, and the "policy bottom" of commodity prices may have appeared, which is beneficial to the inflation chain. There is a potential risk of market - capitalization style shifting to large - cap stocks. It is recommended to take profits on IM long positions at high prices and consider arbitrage opportunities [1][6]. - In the stock index options market, due to low liquidity, low volatility, and ineffective sentiment indicators, the market trend is likely to be volatile, and a covered - call defensive strategy is recommended [2][6]. - In the treasury bond futures market, bond market sentiment is warming up. The easing of the capital market at the beginning of the month and the reduction in the issuance scale of some treasury bonds are positive factors. However, the central bank's cautious liquidity injection and the potential high supply of new local bonds in July may limit the decline in interest rates, and the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [3][7][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: The concept of "anti - involution competition" has emerged, with a focus on industries such as cement, polysilicon, and coal. Commodity futures have risen first, driving up related sectors in the stock market, and funds have flowed out of small - cap growth sectors. The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts have shown changes in basis, inter - delivery spreads, and positions [1][6]. - **Logic**: The current supply - demand pattern remains loose, and supply has not been substantially cleared. The "policy bottom" of commodity prices may have appeared, and there is a potential risk of market - capitalization style shifting to large - cap stocks [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Take profits on IM long positions at high prices and consider long - far - month and short - near - month arbitrage opportunities. The overall suggestion is to wait and see [1][6]. Stock Index Options - **Market Situation**: The trading volume of the options market has continued to decline, and trading liquidity is lower than expected. The average implied volatility of each option variety has decreased by 0.05%, and sentiment indicators are not guiding [2][6]. - **Logic**: Low liquidity and volatility, along with ineffective sentiment indicators, suggest that the index has resistance above, and the market trend is likely to be volatile [2][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a covered - call defensive strategy [2][6]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Situation**: Treasury bond futures rose collectively. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inter - delivery spreads, inter - variety spreads, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts. The central bank conducted 985 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 3653 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing [7]. - **Logic**: At the beginning of the month, the capital market continued to ease, and the issuance scale of some treasury bonds decreased, which improved bond market sentiment. However, the central bank's cautious attitude towards liquidity injection and the potential high supply of new local bonds in July limit the decline in interest rates [3][7][8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a volatile trend strategy. For hedging, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. For basis trading, appropriately pay attention to basis widening. For the yield curve, the odds of steepening the curve in the medium term are higher [8]. Economic Calendar - On June 30, 2025, China's official manufacturing PMI for June was 49.7, up from the previous value of 49.5 [9]. - On July 1, 2025, the final value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI for June was 52.9, higher than the previous value and the forecast value of 52 [9]. - On July 3, 2025, the US will release data on the unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls for June, with forecast values of 4.30% and 11.3 million respectively [9]. Important Information and News Tracking - **Domestic Macroeconomics**: The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 - billion - yuan project list for this year has been fully released, covering multiple key areas [9]. - **Commodities**: The Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association stated that the polysilicon market showed signs of recovery this week, with the average market price rising slightly [10]. Derivatives Market Monitoring No specific content for in - depth analysis is provided in the text for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures market monitoring.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed a strong upward trend on July 3, 2025, driven by the "anti - involution" sentiment. In the short - term, both may continue the strong trend, but the price fluctuations may intensify. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations. [1] - For industrial silicon, the supply may decrease after offsetting increases and decreases, and the demand from polysilicon enterprises may increase, while the demand from the organic silicon sector is weak. [1] - For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase slightly, but the market demand is slowing down. The price increase is mainly driven by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment. [1] Summaries by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Changes - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 1.83% to 8,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) increased by 1.70% to 8,950 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 5.73% to 8,210 yuan/ton. [1] Supply and Demand - Supply: Northern large factories have production reduction plans, and the southwest production area is about to enter the wet season with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise operations. After offsetting, the supply may decrease. [1] - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain production reduction, and some silicon material factories plan to resume production in July, bringing some demand increments. The organic silicon sector has a strong willingness to reduce production and support prices, but the demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. [1] Investment Strategy - In the short - term, the price may continue the strong trend, but the upward pressure will increase after the rebound. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations and continuously monitor the actual production dynamics of silicon enterprises. [1] Polysilicon Price Changes - N - type dense material increased by 2.99% to 34.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon re - feeding material increased by 3.17% to 32.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon dense material increased by 3.33% to 31.0 yuan/kg, polysilicon cauliflower material increased by 3.51% to 29.5 yuan/kg, and the closing price of the futures main contract increased by 7.19% to 35,050 yuan/ton. [1] Supply and Demand - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain production reduction, and some may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output is expected to increase slightly, remaining below 100,000 tons. [1] - Demand: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials, and continuous decline in the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. The market demand is slowing down, and the transactions are weak. [1] Investment Strategy - In the short - term, driven by the long - position sentiment, the price may continue the strong trend, but the price fluctuations may intensify due to limited fundamental improvement. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations and continuously monitor the actual operations of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain and the implementation of supply - side reform. [1] Other Information - On July 1, 2025, the Suzhou Ecological Environment Bureau planned to make a decision on the environmental impact assessment of Suzhou Qizhu New Materials Co., Ltd.'s project. Suzhou Qitian New Materials Co., Ltd. has four holding subsidiaries and three production bases, with a lithium - battery electrolyte additive production capacity of 36,900 tons/year and a functional organic silicon material production capacity of 26,700 tons/year. [1] - The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized promoting the construction of a unified national market, governing low - price and disorderly competition, and guiding enterprises to improve product quality and eliminate backward production capacity. [1]

Group 1: Energy - Brent 09 contract rose 2.78%. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East around the Iran nuclear issue have heated up again, and the trade war risk has weakened. The theme of loose supply and demand in the crude oil market continues, and the supply - demand guidance is still negative [1] - Night - time oil prices rose 3% due to positive news of US - Vietnam tariffs. High - sulfur fuel oil (FU) is in a weak oscillation, while low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) is boosted in the short term [21] - Night - time oil prices rose 3%, and asphalt is expected to follow the upward trend. Supply and demand are expected to increase, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue [22] - The 7 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas was significantly lowered, and the market is in a weak oscillation [23] Group 2: Metals - Overnight, the international copper price led the rise at a high level. The market is trading the probability of a July interest rate cut. Short - term Shanghai copper's upward trend tests 81,000, and long - term high - level short - allocation is recommended [3] - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and there is a risk of a phased correction [4] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. If the spread between the far - month contracts on the disk expands, consider a long - ADC12 and short - AL strategy [5] - The spot price of alumina is around 3,100 yuan, and the upward space is limited [6] - Overnight, the precious metals oscillated strongly. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has increased, and attention is focused on the non - farm payrolls data [2] - Zinc has strong support at 22,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and a short - allocation strategy is recommended in the medium and long term [7] - Shanghai lead is consolidating above 17,000. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention is paid to whether it can stand firm at 17,000 [8] - Shanghai nickel is oscillating at a high level in the rebound. Technically, it is at the end of the rebound, waiting for a short - selling opportunity [9] - Tin prices oscillated overnight. It is advisable to short - allocate the far - month contracts [10] Group 3: Building Materials and Chemicals - Multi - silicon futures' main contract rose to the daily limit. The short - term upward space depends on the implementation of supply - side regulation policies [12] - Industrial silicon futures prices rose strongly. Due to the interweaving of long and short themes, the market is expected to oscillate [13] - Night - time steel prices oscillated. Supply and demand in the steel market are both increasing, and the short - term is expected to remain strong [14] - Iron ore prices rose overnight. Supply is expected to decline, and the short - term trend is expected to follow the finished products and oscillate strongly [15] - Coke prices rose. There is an expectation of a price increase, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [16] - Coking coal prices rose. Policy may reduce production, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [17] - Manganese silicon prices rose. The inventory has decreased, but the upward pressure above 6,750 is large [18] - Silicon iron prices rose. Demand is okay, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [19] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is following the cost fluctuations in the short term and may oscillate at a low level in the long term. Caustic soda is strong in the short term but under pressure in the long term [28] - PX and PTA prices are in a weak oscillation. The supply - demand pattern may gradually become looser [29] - Ethylene glycol is continuing a small - scale rebound and is expected to oscillate at the bottom [30] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The USDA reports on soybeans are neutral. Domestic soybean meal is in a weak oscillation [35] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices rose. A long - allocation strategy on dips is recommended in the long term [36] - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Domestic rapeseed products are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - The price of domestic soybeans rebounded from a low level. Weather and policies need to be focused on in the short term [38] - Corn futures are in an oscillating trend. The supply rhythm affects the market [39] - Hog futures rose significantly. The rebound space is limited in the medium term, and policy support is expected in the long term [40] - Egg futures fell. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [41] - U.S. cotton prices rose. Domestic cotton inventory is expected to be tight, and buying on dips is recommended [42] - U.S. sugar is in a downward trend, and domestic sugar is expected to oscillate [43] - Apple futures are oscillating, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [44] - Wood futures are oscillating. Supply has some positive factors, but the price is still weak [45] - Pulp futures rose slightly. The inventory is still high year - on - year, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [46] Group 5: Others - The freight rate of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in July. The progress of the Gaza negotiations may affect the far - month contracts [20] - Urea market supply and demand have improved marginally, and the short - term market is in a strong oscillation [24] - Methanol futures are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [25] - Styrene prices are in a weak trend. Supply and demand support is insufficient [26] - Polypropylene and polyethylene are in a weak fundamental situation [27] - Glass futures rose significantly, but it is recommended to wait and see due to high inventory and weak demand [32] - Natural rubber supply is increasing, and inventories are rising. A rebound from an oversold position is possible [33] - Soda ash is strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited due to expected demand reduction [34] Group 6: Financial Markets - A - share market is in a weak oscillation. In the style configuration, technology and growth should be increased on the basis of dividend assets [47] - Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. Be aware of the risk of increased volatility in the short term [48]

多晶硅日报 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 07 月 03 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷, ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall, the market is influenced by various factors such as policy changes, supply - demand dynamics, and geopolitical events. Different metals show different trends and investment opportunities based on their unique fundamentals [4][12][21]. - For copper, the 232 tariff uncertainty and inventory changes are key factors affecting price and spread. For alumina, Guinea's policy reform and market sentiment play important roles. For electrolytic aluminum, macro - sentiment and seasonal changes in production and consumption are crucial. Other metals also have their own influencing factors and corresponding price trends [4][12][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Copper 2508 contract closed at 80,540 yuan/ton, up 0.65%, with the Shanghai Copper index increasing positions by 4,906 lots to 601,000 lots. - Spot: The spot premium of Shanghai copper dropped to 120 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous day. Guangdong and Tianjin had different spot premiums and changes [2]. - **Important资讯** - Logistics transportation of some mines in Peru was disrupted due to roadblocks set by informal miners, leading to an interruption in copper concentrate transportation [3]. - **Logic Analysis** - The market expects the 232 tariff to be implemented in September - October, and the expectation of a 25% tariff is strengthening. LME inventory is increasing, and short - term external market squeeze risk is easing. Non - US inventories are difficult to increase effectively before the 232 tariff is implemented, which supports price and spread [4]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Low - inventory and 232 delay expectations drive prices up. - Arbitrage: Buy near - term and sell far - term. - Options: Wait and see [5][7]. Alumina - **Market Review** - Futures: The Alumina 2509 contract rose 130 yuan to 3,071 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 6,396 lots to 422,300 lots. - Spot: Spot prices in different regions remained flat [8]. - **Related资讯** - China's central government emphasized the construction of a unified national market and marine economic development. Guinea plans to reform its mining industry, including creating an aluminum ore index and exercising sales and transportation rights. An aluminum plant in Xinjiang had a higher winning bid price for alumina. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's alumina warehouse receipts decreased [9][10][11]. - **Logic Analysis** - Alumina prices rose due to Guinea's new policy and market rumors. The market is worried about the impact on alumina production. The supply - demand of bauxite is in a tight - balance in the second half of the year, and the price is supported but limited by previous over - supply [12]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Alumina prices are expected to rebound due to market sentiment, and subsequent warehouse receipt changes should be monitored. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [14][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract rose 100 yuan/ton to 20,850 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 12,660 lots to 693,100 lots. - Spot: Spot prices in different regions increased [17]. - **Related资讯** - Aluminum inventory decreased slightly. Warehouse receipts decreased. Aluminum rod production decreased last week. China's photovoltaic new - installed capacity increased significantly in May. The US Senate passed a bill [18]. - **Trading Logic** - Macro - sentiment improved, and the seasonal decrease in aluminum water conversion rate and the increase in photovoltaic new - installed capacity are important factors. Aluminum ingot social inventory is expected to fluctuate slightly in July, and the decline in warehouse receipts may slow down. The off - season of aluminum consumption may not be too severe [21]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly with the sector. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities between 7 - 9 and 9 - 12 during de - stocking and exit during stocking. - Options: Wait and see [22]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review** - Futures: The Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract rose 90 yuan to 19,885 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 383 lots to 10,472 lots. - Spot: Spot prices in different regions remained flat [24]. - **Related资讯** - China emphasized the construction of a unified national market. The expected sales volume of passenger cars in June increased. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in some places increased. A company plans to build a recycling aluminum project [24][25]. - **Trading Logic** - The futures price of aluminum alloy follows the price of aluminum. The spot market is weak in the off - season, but the price is supported by cost. There are still futures - spot arbitrage opportunities [28]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The absolute price of aluminum alloy futures is expected to fluctuate strongly with the price of aluminum. - Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage when the spread between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan, and consider futures - spot arbitrage when the spread is over 400 yuan. - Options: Wait and see [28]. Zinc - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 contract fell 0.11% to 22,230 yuan/ton, with the index position decreasing by 4,934 lots to 263,800 lots. - Spot: The spot market in Shanghai had limited trading, with the premium of domestic spot to the average price rising, but downstream buyers remained on the sidelines [30]. - **Related资讯** - A zinc smelter in Peru resumed production. The domestic zinc ore tender price in June increased [31]. - **Logic Analysis** - Supply - side interference factors have subsided, and domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase in July. The consumption of zinc is entering the off - season, and downstream demand is weak. Domestic social inventory is expected to increase, and zinc prices may face downward pressure [32]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wait and see, and consider short - selling at high prices. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [35][39]. Lead - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Lead 2508 contract rose 0.23% to 17,175 yuan/ton, with the index position increasing by 239 lots to 83,800 lots. - Spot: The spot transaction of primary lead improved, with different regions having different price quotes and changes [35]. - **Related资讯** - A recycled lead smelter in the western region will complete maintenance in July and may resume production in August. Overseas crude lead arrived at the port this week [36]. - **Logic Analysis** - The operating rate of domestic primary lead smelters remains high, while the recycled lead smelters are in a loss, and the supply may tighten. The traditional peak season of lead - acid batteries is coming, and lead prices may fluctuate strongly [37]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Hold profitable long positions. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [39][40]. Nickel - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2508 rose 830 to 121,220 yuan/ton, with the index position increasing by 2,288 lots. - Spot: The premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased, and the premiums of Russian nickel and electrowinning nickel remained unchanged [41]. - **Related资讯** - Analysts expect nickel prices to rebound significantly in the second half of 2025 due to supply tightening in Indonesia. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period [42]. - **Logic Analysis** - Nickel prices are fluctuating weakly above 120,000 yuan. The demand in July is entering the off - season, and the supply - demand is in a weak balance. Indonesia's policy adjustment may have limited impact on actual production, and nickel prices will continue to fluctuate [43]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Consider short - selling on rebounds. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Consider selling call options after rebounds [44][46]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review** - Futures: The main SS2508 contract rose 135 to 12,670 yuan/ton, with the index position decreasing by 4,059 lots. - Spot: The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are in a certain range [48]. - **Important资讯** - The EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism may bring cost risks to stainless steel importers [49][51]. - **Logic Analysis** - Stainless steel prices rebounded with the commodity market, but exports and domestic demand are weak. The decline in nickel ore prices may provide some breathing space, and there may be hedging opportunities. The upward space of stainless steel prices is limited [52]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Stainless steel prices are expected to decline in a fluctuating manner. Pay attention to domestic stimulus policies and US tariff progress. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [53][54]. Tin - **Market Review** - Futures: The main Shanghai Tin 2508 contract closed at 268,520 yuan/ton, up 1,180 yuan/ton or 0.44%, with positions increasing by 282 lots to 56,207 lots. - Spot: The spot price of tin in Shanghai rose, but the actual transaction was limited, with most downstream buyers remaining on the sidelines [56]. - **Related资讯** - The US Senate passed a tax - cut and spending bill, which is beneficial to photovoltaic stocks [57]. - **Logic Analysis** - The market expects the 232 tariff to be postponed to September/October. LME inventory is decreasing, and the supply is fragile. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season [58]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The short - term market is strong. Pay attention to the resumption of tin ore production [59]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review** - Futures: Driven by the sentiment of polysilicon futures, the main contract of industrial silicon futures rose 4.79% to 8,210 yuan/ton. - Spot: After the futures price increase, the shipment of silicon plants in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia accelerated, with shipment prices ranging from 7,600 to 8,050 yuan/ton [62][63]. - **Related资讯** - China emphasized the construction of a unified national market. In July, the resumption and new - investment capacity of polysilicon will exceed 350,000 tons [64]. - **Comprehensive Analysis** - The demand for industrial silicon will increase in July, and the spot price may not decline before the full resumption of leading manufacturers. Market rumors and policy factors may affect market sentiment. In the short - term, it is recommended to participate in the long - side with a pressure level of 8,500 yuan/ton [64]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Participate in the long - side in the short - term, with a pressure level of 8,500 yuan/ton. - Options: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Consider reverse arbitrage for Si2511 and Si2512 [65]. Polysilicon - **Market Review** - Futures: Affected by price - limit rumors, polysilicon futures rose to the daily limit. - Spot: The spot prices of different types of polysilicon decreased to varying degrees [66]. - **Related资讯** - China emphasized the construction of a unified national market. In July, the resumption and new - investment capacity of polysilicon will exceed 350,000 tons, and polysilicon may face inventory accumulation [64][68]. - **Comprehensive Analysis** - Although the industry is facing negative factors, policy implementation may support the price above 34,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to participate in the long - side in the short - term, with a pressure level of 36,000 yuan/ton [68]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Participate in long - positions in far - month contracts in the short - term, with a pressure level of 36,000 yuan/ton. - Options: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [69]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review** - Futures: The main 2509 contract rose 1,980 to 62,780 yuan/ton, with the index position decreasing by 2,761 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts increasing by 240 to 23,180 tons. - Spot: The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [70]. - **Important资讯** - CATL has future plans for battery recycling and started a battery factory project in Indonesia. Chile's copper company obtained a lithium mining quota, and the Chilean Congress passed a bill to speed up project approval [71][73]. - **Logic Analysis** - Lithium carbonate prices rose, but the industry has over - capacity. In July, the supply may increase, and the demand may increase slightly. The short - term rebound may not last, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [74]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short on rebounds. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [75][77].