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梁杏:布局A股,关注核心+卫星的配置策略
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-10-16 01:17
Core Viewpoint - The adjustment in the US stock market is expected to have a limited impact on the A-share market, which is likely to maintain a slow bull trend despite short-term fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Historical experience shows that significant declines in the US market often lead to global market volatility, but A-shares have demonstrated relative resilience recently [1]. - The technology sector, particularly in artificial intelligence, is leading the current A-share rally, with both domestic and North American computing capabilities playing a role [1][2]. - A-share's fundamentals exhibit a degree of independence from US market movements, suggesting that local factors will also influence performance [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The current low-interest-rate environment is prompting capital to flow into the stock market in search of higher returns, resulting in relatively abundant liquidity [1]. - The recent market adjustment is viewed as a favorable opportunity for investors to accumulate shares, particularly for those optimistic about A-share's future [2][3]. - A recommended investment strategy involves a "core + satellite" approach, combining core holdings with satellite investments in technology and dividend stocks to enhance investment experience during market volatility [3]. Group 3: Sector Focus - The "anti-involution" theme is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity, encompassing sectors like steel, coal, photovoltaic, construction materials, aquaculture, and chemicals, which are supported by national policies [5]. - The aquaculture sector has shown resilience, with its performance remaining strong even during broader market declines, indicating its unique internal circulation logic [5]. - Other sectors currently in a downward cycle are not recommended, while the mining and non-ferrous metals sectors may present opportunities due to their independent performance linked to commodities like gold and copper [5].
养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20251015
Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - **Soybean Oil**: China's soybean oil inventory continues to accumulate with sufficient supply and currently lacks bullish drivers. However, as the traditional consumption season in Q4 and the best - value oil, inventory is expected to stop increasing and decline, and the futures price center may move up slightly. It's advisable to hold long positions in the main contract, with support at 8150 - 8200 yuan/ton and resistance at 8400 - 8450 yuan/ton [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Despite macro - risk disturbances and a weakening in the futures market, the spot basis remains firm. With anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports, supply will gradually tighten. Although high current inventory restricts the futures price, there is a strong de - stocking expectation. It's recommended to wait for stabilization and then go long lightly, with support at 9768 - 9785 and resistance at 10249 - 10266 [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The recent decline in crude oil and increased palm oil production in Malaysia have led to a price drop. But the inventory pressure in Southeast Asian production areas is not large, and with the B50 test in Indonesia, the supply - demand situation is expected to narrow in Q4. Aggressive strategies can consider holding long positions or buying out - of - the - money call options after stabilization, with support at 9230 - 9270 and resistance at 9650 - 9680 [2]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2**: The supply of soybean meal and bean No. 2 is abundant, and the consumption of soybean meal is entering the off - season. The futures price of soybean meal is likely to remain weak. It's recommended to hold short positions lightly or sell out - of - the - money call options for soybean meal, and consider going long on the 01 contract oil - meal ratio [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The upward driving force is insufficient, but the downside is limited. There is no obvious single - side trading opportunity. Consider going long on the 01 contract rapeseed oil - meal ratio, with support at 2354 - 2370 and resistance at 2474 - 2500 [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The external market is under pressure, and the domestic market is also bearish due to the new - season harvest and poor downstream profits. It's recommended to hold short positions cautiously, with the 11 - contract corn support at 2000 - 2050 and resistance at 2180 - 2200, and the 11 - contract corn starch support at 2340 - 2350 and resistance at 2500 - 2520 [4]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The new - season soybeans in the Northeast are on the market, and the price is polarized. With low valuation and active downstream purchases, it's advisable to go long lightly, with support at 3900 - 3930 yuan/ton and resistance at 4030 - 4050 yuan/ton [5]. - **Peanuts**: Although the new - season peanut production is expected to increase, the adverse weather in Henan has affected yields. It's recommended to hold long positions temporarily, with support at 7550 - 7900 and resistance at 8020 - 8160 [5]. - **Pigs**: The futures and spot prices stopped falling and rebounded. The industry is reducing weights and increasing the supply. It's advisable for cautious investors to hold short - near and long - far spreads, and wait for capacity reduction to buy the 2607 contract at low prices [7]. - **Eggs**: The futures price continued to rebound from the bottom. The spot price is in the off - season. It's recommended to avoid shorting blindly. Aggressive investors can go long on the 2512 contract at low prices, with the reference range at 2950 - 3200 points [7]. Summary by Directory 1. First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations a. Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support | Resistance | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 11 | New domestic soybeans are in abundant supply, and downstream purchases are relatively active under low valuation | 3900 - 3930 | 4030 - 4050 | Oscillating strongly | Go long lightly | | | Soybean No. 2 11 | Sufficient current inventory of oil - pressing soybeans, continuous Sino - US trade friction, and no purchase of new - season US soybeans | 3500 - 3540 | 3675 - 3700 | Oscillating adjustment | Wait and see | | | Peanut 11 | Increasing market supply, poor yield performance in parts of Henan | 7500 - 7600 | 8020 - 8162 | Oscillating adjustment | Wait and see | | Oils | Soybean Oil 01 | Little change in fundamentals, affected by crude oil fluctuations. Sufficient supply currently, and the supply - demand outlook is positive in Q4 | 8150 - 8200 | 8400 - 8450 | Oscillating up | Go long lightly | | | Rapeseed Oil 01 | Fewer purchase orders, de - stocking expected | 9768 - 9785 | 10249 - 10266 | Oscillating adjustment | Go long after stabilization | | | Palm 01 | Malaysian palm oil production exceeds expectations, but inventory pressure in production areas is not large. Indonesia plans to promote B50, and the long - term outlook is bullish | 9230 - 9270 | 9650 - 9680 | Oscillating adjustment | Go long after stabilization | | Protein | Soybean Meal 01 | Sufficient inventory of oil - pressing soybeans and soybean meal, and the feed demand for soybean meal is expected to weaken in Q4. The bullish factor is the continuous Sino - US trade friction | 2800 - 2850 | 2960 - 2970 | Oscillating adjustment | Hold short positions | | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | Expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports, and seasonal demand weakening | 2354 - 2370 | 2474 - 2500 | Oscillating adjustment | Wait and see | | Energy and By - products | Corn 11 | The market is under pressure seasonally, but the listing rhythm may have some disturbances | 2000 - 2050 | 2180 - 2200 | Bearish expectation | Hold short positions cautiously | | | Starch 11 | The cost of corn is under pressure, and the spot supply is slightly loose. The futures price of starch follows the downward trend | 2340 - 2350 | 2500 - 2520 | Bearish expectation | Hold short positions cautiously | | Livestock | Pigs 11 | Feed prices stopped falling and rebounded, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthened | 12800 - 13000 | 13000 - 13800 | Oscillating to find the bottom | Switch to waiting and seeing | | | Eggs 12 | Capacity pressure + expectation of the consumption peak season | 2900 - 3100 | 3300 - 3350 | Oscillating to find the bottom | Wait and see | [10] b. Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery Arbitrage**: Most varieties are recommended to wait and see, except for pigs 1 - 3 and eggs 10 - 1, which are recommended to go long at low prices [12]. - **Inter - variety Arbitrage**: For oils, 01 soybean oil - palm oil is recommended for short - biased operation, 01 rapeseed oil - soybean oil for long - biased operation, and 01 rapeseed oil - palm oil to wait and see. For protein, 01 soybean meal - rapeseed meal is in low - level oscillation. For the oil - meal ratio, the 01 soybean oil - meal ratio and 01 rapeseed oil - meal ratio are recommended for long - biased operation. For energy and by - products, 11 starch - corn is recommended to wait and see [12]. c. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies | Sector | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Main Contract Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 | 3960 | 3960 | - 7 | 94 | | | Soybean No. 2 | 3960 | 3960 | 347 | 39 | | | Peanuts | 7400 | 7400 | - 342 | 80 | | Oils | Soybean Oil | 8620 | 8620 | 310 | 8 | | | Rapeseed Oil | 10180 | 30 | 221 | - 35 | | | Palm Oil | 9280 | 20 | - 50 | 54 | | Protein | Soybean Meal | 2920 | - 10 | 78 | 78 | | | Rapeseed Meal | 2430 | - 30 | 82 | 14 | | Energy and By - products | Corn | 2120 | - 20 | 58 | 3 | | | Starch | 2570 | 0 | 169 | - 17 | | Livestock | Pigs | 10.92 yuan/kg | 0.07 yuan/kg | - 450 | - 275 | | | Eggs | 2.42 yuan/jin | - 0.07 yuan/jin | 48 yuan/500kg | - 44 yuan/500kg | [13] 2. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table a. Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: Includes import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods [14]. - **Weekly Data**: Shows the inventory and operation rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [16]. b. Feed - **Daily Data**: Presents the import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil [16]. - **Weekly Data**: Displays the consumption, inventory, operation rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [17]. c. Livestock - **Daily Data**: Provides the daily price changes of live pigs and eggs [18][19]. - **Weekly Data**: Shows the key weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including prices, costs, profits, and production - related data [20][22]. 3. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock End (Pigs, Eggs)**: Includes charts of futures and spot prices of pigs and eggs, as well as related prices such as piglets and white - striped pigs [24]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: - **Palm Oil**: Covers production, inventory, import, and price - related charts in Malaysia [34]. - **Soybean Oil**: Includes charts of US soybean crushing, inventory, and domestic operation rates and inventory [41]. - **Peanuts**: Involves charts of market supply, processing, and price - related data [50]. - **Feed End**: - **Corn**: Includes price, inventory, import, and processing - profit - related charts [56]. - **Corn Starch**: Covers price, operation rate, and inventory - related charts [64]. - **Rapeseed**: Includes spot price, inventory, and basis - related charts [68]. - **Soybean Meal**: Involves US soybean growth, inventory, and price - spread - related charts [74]. 4. Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils Includes historical volatility charts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as option trading volume and open - interest charts of corn [90]. 5. Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils Shows the warehouse receipt quantity and open - interest charts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [93].
江西正邦科技股份有限公司关于下属子公司重整计划获得法院裁定批准的公告
Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary, Liaoning Chaoyang Zhengbang Ecological Agriculture Co., Ltd., has received court approval for its restructuring plan, which is a significant step in addressing its debt crisis [1][4][7] Group 2 - On July 25, 2025, the subsidiary received a court decision to accept a pre-restructuring application from creditor Zhang Xiuchun [1] - On September 4, 2025, the court accepted the restructuring application and appointed a management firm to oversee the process [2] - The first creditors' meeting was held on October 10, 2025, where the restructuring plan was approved by all creditor groups [3][5] - The court officially approved the restructuring plan on October 14, 2025, allowing the subsidiary to enter the execution phase of the plan [4][6] Group 3 - The approval of the restructuring plan is expected to alleviate the subsidiary's debt crisis, potentially impacting the company's financial data for the year 2025 [7]
广东农业品牌为何领跑全国?|南岭东风
Nan Fang Nong Cun Bao· 2025-10-14 04:03
Core Viewpoint - Guangdong province leads the nation in agricultural branding, with six products selected in the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' 2025 Agricultural Brand Cultivation Plan, showcasing its commitment to enhancing agricultural competitiveness and farmer income [4][5][15]. Group 1: Agricultural Branding Achievements - Guangdong has the highest number of brands selected in the 2025 Agricultural Brand Cultivation Plan, with six products including Zengcheng's fragrant rice and Zhanjiang's shrimp [4][5]. - The total brand value of agricultural enterprises in Guangdong exceeds 250 billion yuan, reflecting the province's focus on developing high-quality agricultural products [9][15]. - The "12221" marketing system has been pivotal in transforming agricultural products from basic commodities to high-end, regionally distinctive goods [10][39]. Group 2: Marketing and Sales Strategies - The "12221" marketing system includes establishing a big data platform, creating two teams of buyers and sellers, and expanding market reach through targeted activities [39][45]. - The success of the "12221" system is evident in the significant increase in the annual output value of Xu Wen pineapples, which grew from 980 million yuan to 2.5 billion yuan, benefiting nearly 50,000 farmers [48]. - Fromhua lychee has adopted innovative marketing strategies, including global promotional activities, to enhance its market presence and brand recognition [66][68]. Group 3: Role of Media in Branding - Media plays a crucial role in promoting agricultural brands, as seen in the collaboration between Guangdong's agricultural sector and various media platforms to enhance product visibility [108][110]. - The "Media+" initiative aims to leverage media resources for agricultural brand building, facilitating better market access and consumer engagement [119][120]. - Events like the "6·6 Give 'Li' Festival" have significantly boosted the visibility and sales of Guangdong lychee, demonstrating the effectiveness of media-driven marketing campaigns [116][118]. Group 4: Regional Development and Innovation - Different regions in Guangdong are implementing tailored strategies based on the "12221" model to enhance their agricultural branding efforts, such as the promotion of Qingyuan's bamboo shoots and Yangjiang's oysters [86][96]. - The integration of technology and innovation in agricultural practices is evident in the development of preservation techniques for Fromhua lychee, which has expanded its market reach [78][80]. - The focus on building a modern agricultural industry system aims to elevate local specialties into significant economic contributors, with projected industry values exceeding 5 billion yuan [82].
天域生物(603717) - 2025年9月养殖业务主要经营数据公告
2025-10-13 09:15
一、2025 年 9 月养殖行业主要经营数据 2025 年 9 月,公司销售生猪 2.86 万头,销售收入 3,275.66 万元,环比变动分 别为 10.33%、9.77%,同比变动分别为 38.73%、-36.47%。 2025 年 1-9 月,公司累计销售生猪 27.60 万头,同比上升 19.64%;累计销售 收入 39,516.26 万元,同比下降 4.59%。 证券代码:603717 证券简称:天域生物 公告编号:2025-090 天域生物科技股份有限公司 2025 年 9 月养殖业务主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 天域生物科技股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")现将 2025 年 9 月养殖业务 主要经营数据公告如下: 月份 销售数量(万头) 销售收入(万元) 期末库存量 当月 累计 当月 累计 (万头) 2025 年 1 月 3.94 3.94 6,115.20 6,115.20 17.01 2025 年 2 月 3.12 7.06 4,270.88 10,386.08 15.14 ...
金鹰基金:关税烽烟再起风偏承压 政策对冲及时冲击有限
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-10-13 02:20
Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant divergence in performance post-holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index losing the 3900-point mark and the ChiNext Index dropping over 4% on Friday, marking its largest single-day decline since April 7 [1] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market increased to 2.60 trillion yuan, indicating heightened market activity [1] Economic Data - Holiday consumption demonstrated resilience in domestic demand, although per capita travel spending decreased year-on-year, reflecting limited consumer willingness [1] - The tightening of U.S.-China relations has led to a reduction in market risk appetite, with potential short-term impacts on domestic equity markets [2] Industry Insights - The cyclical sectors led the market gains, while technology and growth sectors lagged behind [1] - The short-term market style is expected to rebalance, with a focus on sectors showing performance, particularly in technology, AI, and domestic alternatives like semiconductors and energy storage [3] - Non-bank financial sectors such as brokerage, insurance, and financial IT are anticipated to see improvements in both valuation and performance [3] Policy and Future Outlook - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" draft is expected to provide clear guidance for industrial development and economic restructuring, serving as a significant policy catalyst for the fourth quarter [2] - Despite the current market challenges, there remains a positive outlook for incremental capital inflows into the equity market, supported by stable economic fundamentals and a potential Fed rate cut cycle [2]
北疆草原“破圈”融入京津冀
Core Viewpoint - The integration of Inner Mongolia into the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is transforming the local economy and enhancing the flow of resources, including agricultural products and technology, leading to significant improvements in quality of life and economic development [1][22]. Transportation and Connectivity - Multiple high-speed rail lines connecting Beijing to cities in Inner Mongolia, such as Hohhot and Ulanqab, have created a 2.5-hour commuting circle, facilitating the exchange of resources and services [1]. - The opening of these rail lines has allowed Inner Mongolia to integrate into the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic framework, promoting regional collaboration [1]. Technological Innovation - The Hohhot Innovation Center has introduced 27 disruptive technology projects, including smart collars for cattle that monitor health and hydration, enhancing traditional livestock farming [4][6]. - A multi-channel edge computing terminal has been adapted for real-time monitoring of wind turbines, improving operational efficiency in the region's wind energy sector [4]. Agricultural Development - A modern beef cattle breeding farm established in Ulanqab has transformed a previously impoverished village into a thriving community, significantly increasing local incomes [14][16]. - The establishment of a shared logistics warehouse in Beijing has streamlined the distribution of Inner Mongolia's agricultural products, ensuring rapid delivery to urban markets [16]. Environmental and Ecological Restoration - The transformation of the Chahan Lake Wetland Park has turned a previously degraded area into a popular tourist destination, contributing to ecological restoration and enhancing regional tourism [20][22]. - Initiatives aimed at combating desertification and improving biodiversity have revitalized the local environment, making it a key attraction for visitors from Beijing and beyond [20]. Educational Collaboration - The opening of the Beijing 101 Middle School branch in Hohhot has brought high-quality educational resources to the region, with teachers from Beijing providing ongoing support and collaboration [22]. - The initiative has allowed nearly 4,000 students and teachers in Inner Mongolia to benefit from advanced educational practices and resources from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area [22].
唐人神:累计回购约996万股
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-10-10 08:18
2025年1至6月份,唐人神的营业收入构成为:饲料产业占比60.25%,猪种苗产业占比34.1%,肉类产业 占比5.58%,动保业占比0.06%。 截至发稿,唐人神市值为69亿元。 每经AI快讯,唐人神(SZ 002567,收盘价:4.83元)10月10日晚间发布公告称,截至2025年9月30日, 公司通过股份回购专用证券账户以集中竞价方式回购公司股份约996万股,占公司目前总股本的0.7%, 最高成交价为5.52元/股,最低成交价为4.68元/股,成交金额约5010万元。 每经头条(nbdtoutiao)——天水麻辣烫、淄博烧烤、荣昌卤鹅⋯⋯"泼天流量"退去后,这些城市怎么 样了? (记者 曾健辉) ...
养殖ETF(159865)强势吸金,10日净流入额超8亿元
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-10-10 02:30
Core Insights - Continuous capital inflow into the livestock sector, with the Livestock ETF (159865) seeing over 800 million yuan in net inflows in the last 10 trading days [1] - Major pig companies, including Muyuan Foods, New Hope, and Wens Foodstuff, reported year-on-year sales growth for September 2025, although there were mixed results on a month-on-month basis [1] - The industry is experiencing a policy-driven reduction in hog output, while seasonal demand remains weak, leading to a downward trend in pork prices [1] Industry Overview - The Livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Breeding Index, with approximately 60% exposure to "pigs," presenting potential investment opportunities for interested investors [1] - According to招商证券, the seasonal decline in piglet sales is noted, and the policy adjustments aimed at boosting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) may elevate the price center for pork in 2026 [1] - The cash flow of low-cost pig companies is expected to improve significantly, enhancing their intrinsic value [1]
长江期货养殖产业月报-20251009
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 06:47
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For the hog industry, in the short term, the hog price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to increasing supply, high hog weights, and limited demand. In the long term, the supply will continue to grow until the first half of next year, and the price is under pressure. However, the price may strengthen in the second half of next year due to expected capacity reduction, but caution is needed due to continuous cost - cutting in the industry [3][6][51][52]. - For the egg industry, in the short term, after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the demand weakens seasonally, and the egg price is expected to be weak. In the long term, the supply growth rate slows down, but the supply pressure still exists, and the market needs time to clear the excess capacity [59][60][88][89]. - For the corn industry, in the short term, the market is expected to be weak due to sufficient supply from new grain listings and limited terminal demand recovery. In the long term, the import remains low, the old - crop inventory is not high, and the demand is gradually recovering, with strong cost support at the bottom [97][99]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hog Section Market Review - As of October 8, the national hog price was 11.52 yuan/kg, down 2.03 yuan/kg from the end of last month. The Henan hog average price was 11.71 yuan/kg, down 1.94 yuan/kg. On September 30, the main 11 - contract price was 12355 yuan/ton, down 1200 yuan/ton (8.85% decline) from the end of last month. The 11 - contract basis was - 645 yuan/ton, down 740 yuan/ton from the end of last month. In September, the hog price continued to decline due to increased supply and limited demand. During the National Day, the hog price hit a new low [6][11]. Supply - The inventory of breeding sows was in a balanced upper - limit range, with production performance improving. The supply of hogs in the fourth quarter is at a high level, and the supply pressure before the first half of next year is still large. The hog inventory increased, and the proportion of large hogs decreased. The planned出栏量 of enterprises in September increased, and the出栏 pressure in October is still large [6][16][21]. Demand - In September, the daily average slaughter of key slaughtering enterprises was 134508 heads, up 14.28% from the previous month and 21.57% year - on - year. The fresh - sales rate decreased, and the terminal demand was weak. After the double festivals, the consumption may decline, but the demand will gradually increase with the cooling weather. However, due to factors such as weak macro - economic recovery and frozen - product inventory, the demand increase is limited [6][32][33]. Cost - The prices of piglets and breeding sows decreased, and the breeding profit was in the red. The long - term breeding cost decreased. As of September 30, the selling price of 15 - kg piglets was 334 yuan/head, down 111 yuan/head from the end of last month. The price of binary sows was 1589 yuan/head, down 11 yuan/head [6][41]. Policy - The government requires the top 25 enterprises to reduce 1 million breeding sows by the end of January. The national pig - grain ratio fell below the warning level, and the state carried out pork procurement and rotation. The procurement is expected to be a total of 50,000 tons, which mainly boosts market sentiment [6][47]. Driving Summary - In the short term, the hog price is expected to fluctuate weakly. In the long term, the price is under pressure until the first half of next year and may strengthen in the second half of next year [51][52]. Valuation - The basis of the hog futures contracts weakened, and the valuation was relatively high [53][54]. Egg Section Market Review - As of September 30, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.41 yuan/jin, up 0.27 yuan/jin from the end of August. The average price in the main selling areas was 3.43 yuan/jin, up 0.3 yuan/jin. The main contract price was 3038 yuan/500 kg, up 68 yuan/500 kg. The main basis was - 78 yuan/500 kg, up 182 yuan/500 kg from the end of August. The monthly egg price first rose and then fell [60][64]. Supply - In October, the number of newly - opened laying hens was still relatively high. The supply was sufficient in the short term and the pressure was still large in the long term, but the supply growth rate slowed down [60]. Demand - After the "double festivals", the terminal demand weakened. However, with the cooling weather, the storage period of eggs lengthened, and the low egg price may stimulate inventory demand [60]. Driving Summary - In the short term, the egg price is expected to be weak. In the long term, the supply growth rate slows down, but the market needs time to clear the excess capacity [88][89]. Valuation - The main egg futures contract was at the lowest level since 2020, and the basis was at an average level, with a neutral valuation [93]. Corn Section Market Review - As of September 30, the FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the end of August. The main 2511 - contract price was 2143 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton. The main basis was 157 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton. The monthly corn price was weak, and the futures price followed the spot price [99][103]. Supply - The old - crop inventory of traders was not high. With the large - scale listing of new grain, the market supply was sufficient, and the price was seasonally pressured. In August, the corn import was 40,000 tons, a significant year - on - year decrease. The North and South port inventories decreased [99][115][131]. Demand - The increase in livestock and poultry inventories drove the increase in feed demand, but the high corn - wheat price difference and the new - grain listing led to a decrease in corn feed demand. The deep - processing industry remained in the red, and the start - up rate was low [99]. Driving Summary - In the short term, the market is expected to be weak. In the long term, the import remains low, the old - crop inventory is not high, the demand is gradually recovering, and there is strong cost support at the bottom [99]. Valuation - The futures price was at the lowest level in the same period in the past six years, and the basis was at a relatively high historical level [137].