Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The non - ferrous metals sector continued the general rebound trend from last weekend, with its performance strengthening compared to the previous period. The impact of trade negotiations and tariffs was temporarily alleviated. The market was focusing on changes in interest - rate cut expectations. The US economic data was resilient, and the Fed's decision - making independence led to changes in interest - rate cut expectations. In China, policies were introduced to promote stable growth in key industrial sectors, and major infrastructure projects were launched, which drove the non - ferrous metals sector to follow the upward trend, but the sustainability was average. The non - ferrous metals market showed an oscillatory and strengthening trend. Future operations should be cautiously bullish in the short - term, but avoid over - chasing the rise [11][12]. - Different non - ferrous metal varieties had different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper was expected to show a situation of weak supply and strong demand, with inventory depletion likely to continue; zinc was in a state of increasing supply and weak demand, with an oscillatory and strengthening trend in the short - term and a bearish outlook in the medium - term; aluminum and its related products in the industry had different trends in cost, supply, and demand, and corresponding investment strategies were recommended [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector rebounded. Trade and tariff impacts were temporarily alleviated. The market focused on interest - rate cut expectations. China's policies promoted industrial growth, driving the non - ferrous metals sector. The sustainability of the upward trend was limited. Future operations should be short - term cautiously bullish, and attention should be paid to the resonance between supply - demand fundamentals and the macro - environment [11][12]. - **Variety - Specific Analysis** - **Copper**: Social inventory decreased, supply was expected to decline, and demand was expected to increase. It was expected to stop falling and rebound, with support at 78000 - 79000 yuan/ton and resistance at 80000 - 82000 yuan/ton. The strategy was to buy on dips [3][14]. - **Zinc**: Supply increased, demand was weak, but it was oscillatory and strengthening in the short - term. Support was at 21600 - 21800 yuan/ton, resistance was at 22800 - 23000 yuan/ton. Short - term long positions were recommended, and short positions were considered in the medium - term [4][14]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: In the aluminum industry chain, different products had different trends in cost, supply, and demand. For example, for aluminum, 09 contract had resistance at 21000 - 21200 yuan/ton and support at 20000 - 20200 yuan/ton; for alumina, 09 contract had resistance at 3700 - 3900 yuan/ton and support at 2800 - 3000 yuan/ton. Strategies such as reducing long positions and buying out - of - the - money put options were recommended [5][16]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals were weak in both supply and demand. It was recommended to wait and see, reduce long positions, with resistance at 270000 - 290000 yuan/ton and support at 250000 - 255000 yuan/ton. Buying out - of - the - money put options was considered [6]. - **Lead**: It followed the sector to rebound and then consolidated. Supply was expected to increase, and demand needed to be further restored. Support was at 16800 - 17000 yuan/ton, resistance was at 17200 - 17400 yuan/ton. Selling out - of - the - money put options on dips was recommended [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel had an overall oversupply situation, with short - term bullish and medium - term bearish trends. Stainless steel had a situation of weak supply and demand, with support at 12300 - 12400 yuan/ton and resistance at 12800 - 13000 yuan/ton [8][17]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Market Review The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures were provided. For example, copper closed at 79590 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; zinc closed at 22975 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [18]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Position Analysis The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector was presented, including the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors of different varieties such as polysilicon, silver, gold, zinc, etc [20]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Spot Market The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals were provided, such as the Yangtze River spot price of copper was 79930 yuan/ton, up 0.13%; the Yangtze River spot average price of 0 zinc was 22830 yuan/ton, up 0.26% [21][23]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Chain Graphs related to the industry chain of various non - ferrous metals were presented, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [24][28][30][35][41][44][49][56]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Arbitrage Graphs related to arbitrage of various non - ferrous metals were presented, including the comparison of domestic and foreign price ratios, basis differences, and price differences between different contract months of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [57][61][62][66][69][71]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Options Graphs related to options of various non - ferrous metals were presented, including historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open - interest ratio of copper, zinc, and aluminum options [75][78][81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment is positive due to the decline in US Treasury yields and expectations of Fed rate - cuts, along with the upcoming release of growth - stabilization plans for key industries in China. However, the rebound of copper prices is expected to be limited by factors such as the approaching US copper tariff implementation time and the current off - season for downstream demand [1]. - Aluminum prices continue to rise driven by the strong sentiment in the black - series commodities market, but the increase may be mainly a follow - up movement considering the potential inventory accumulation in the context of the off - season and weak export demand [3]. - Lead prices are expected to be weak as the supply of lead ingots remains relatively loose, and the consumption expectation is suppressed by anti - dumping tariffs [4]. - Zinc prices are expected to be bearish in the medium - to - long term due to the abundant supply of zinc ore and increasing inventory, but may show a short - term oscillating and strengthening trend influenced by factors such as the bullish market sentiment and potential structural risks [6]. - Tin's overall fundamentals are weak due to the strengthened expectation of Myanmar's tin mine复产 and weak demand, and short - term observation is recommended [7]. - Nickel prices are expected to decline further as the demand is weak, and the surplus situation is difficult to reverse. Observation is recommended in the short term [8]. - For lithium carbonate, although the fundamental benefits are limited, the price may be affected by market sentiment, and short - term observation is recommended [10]. - Alumina prices may be strong in the short term due to policy expectations and low warehouse receipts, but the over - capacity pattern may be difficult to change this year, and short - term observation is recommended [13]. - Stainless steel prices may rise slightly in the short term due to the positive policy and improved supply - side expectations [15]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices may rise slightly under the influence of a warm macro - environment, but continuous price increases are difficult due to the large futures - spot price difference [17]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Market prices: LME copper rose 0.74% to $9867/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79770 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 100 to 122075 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 25000 tons [1]. - Price outlook: The rebound of copper prices is expected to be limited, with the SHFE copper main contract running in the range of 78800 - 80200 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of 9720 - 9950 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - Market prices: LME aluminum rose 0.42% to $2652/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20925 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.55 to 34.9 tons [3]. - Price outlook: Aluminum prices may continue to rise, with the domestic main contract running in the range of 20800 - 21050 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of 2630 - 2680 dollars/ton [3]. Lead - Market prices: SHFE lead index fell 0.35% to 16922 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $2002/ton [4]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 6.58 tons [4]. - Price outlook: Lead prices are expected to be weak [4]. Zinc - Market prices: SHFE zinc index rose 0.10% to 22928 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S remained at $2845/ton [6]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 9.27 tons [6]. - Price outlook: Zinc prices are bearish in the medium - to - long term but may strengthen in the short term [6]. Tin - Market situation: Supply is under pressure in the short term, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate, with the domestic tin price running in the range of 250000 - 280000 yuan/ton and LME tin in the range of 31000 - 35000 dollars/ton [7]. Nickel - Market situation: Nickel ore prices are expected to decline, and the industry chain price center may move down. Short - term observation is recommended, with the SHFE nickel main contract running in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Market prices: The MMLC index rose 2.91% to 70832 yuan, and the LC2509 contract rose 2.24% to 72880 yuan [10]. - Price outlook: Observation is recommended, with the LC2509 contract running in the range of 71300 - 74800 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - Market prices: The alumina index rose 3.69% to 3481 yuan/ton [13]. - Price outlook: Short - term observation is recommended, with the domestic main contract AO2509 running in the range of 3100 - 3600 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - Market prices: The stainless steel main contract rose 1.41% to 12905 yuan/ton [15]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 1.69% to 114.78 tons [15]. - Price outlook: Prices may rise slightly in the short term [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market situation: Downstream is in the off - season, and prices may rise slightly but continuous increase is difficult. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price was about 19910 yuan/ton [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents Core Views - Copper prices are expected to have a weak rebound due to factors such as the expected US copper tariff implementation and limited actual demand growth, with the SHFE copper main contract expected to trade between 77,500 - 80,000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 9,500 - 9,950 dollars/ton [1]. - Aluminum prices may continue to rise driven by low inventory and positive sentiment, but the increase is expected to be limited as the downstream is in the off - season and export demand is weak. The domestic main contract is expected to trade between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M between 2,550 - 2,680 dollars/ton [3]. - Lead prices are expected to be weak as the supply is relatively loose, and the consumption is suppressed by the anti - dumping tariff in the Middle East [4]. - Zinc prices are expected to be bearish in the medium - to - long term due to the abundant supply, but may show a short - term oscillating and strengthening trend due to positive market sentiment [6]. - Tin prices are expected to be weak in the short term as the supply is low but the demand is also weak, with the domestic tin price expected to trade between 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton and LME tin between 31,000 - 34,000 dollars/ton [7]. - Nickel ore prices are expected to decline due to weak demand, and the nickel market is in an oversupply situation, with the short - term SHFE nickel main contract expected to trade between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M between 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [8][9][10]. - Lithium carbonate prices had a significant weekly increase, but the weak reality remains. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate main contract is expected to trade between 68,000 - 72,200 yuan/ton [12]. - Alumina prices are expected to be strong in the short term but the over - capacity situation is difficult to change in the year. The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to trade between 3,000 - 3,500 yuan/ton [14]. - Stainless steel prices may rise slightly due to policy and demand support, but the de - stocking pressure of 304 series products is still prominent [17]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices may rise further due to cost support and positive macro - atmosphere, but may face downward pressure after the increase [19]. Summary by Metal Copper - Last week, copper prices first declined and then rose, with LME copper rising 1.36% to 9,794 dollars/ton and SHFE copper main contract closing at 79,040 yuan/ton [1]. - Three major exchanges' inventories increased by 21,000 tons, and Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 2,000 tons [1]. - The spot import loss narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium increased [1]. - The LME market's Cash/3M discount widened, and the domestic basis quotes were differentiated [1]. - The refined - scrap copper price difference was 960 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises increased slightly [1]. Aluminum - Last week, aluminum prices declined and then rebounded, with SHFE aluminum main contract falling 0.89% and LME aluminum rising 1.38% to 2,638 dollars/ton [3]. - The SHFE aluminum weighted contract's open interest decreased by 55,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased to 67,000 tons [3]. - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased to 492,000 tons, and the bonded area inventory decreased to 116,000 tons [3]. - The operating rate of major domestic aluminum product enterprises continued to decline [3]. Lead - On Friday, SHFE lead index fell 0.16% to 16,836 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 3 to 1,977 dollars/ton [4]. - The refined - scrap lead price difference was at par, and the price of lead - acid batteries stopped falling and stabilized [4]. - The supply of lead ingots was relatively loose, and both social and enterprise inventories increased [4]. - The consumption of lead ingots was suppressed by the anti - dumping tariff in the Middle East [4]. Zinc - On Friday, SHFE zinc index rose 0.80% to 22,285 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 56.5 to 2,753.5 dollars/ton [6]. - The domestic supply of zinc ore was abundant, and the import zinc concentrate TC index increased significantly [6]. - In June, the domestic refined zinc output increased by 36,000 tons to 585,000 tons, and the supply is expected to continue to increase [6]. - The short - term zinc price may show an oscillating and strengthening trend due to positive market sentiment [6]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated narrowly [7]. - The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is progressing, but domestic smelters still face raw material supply pressure [7]. - The consumption in the off - season was poor, and the order volume of downstream factories was low [7]. - The social inventory of tin ingots decreased slightly [7]. Nickel - Nickel ore prices stabilized after a decline, and are expected to continue to decline due to weak demand [8]. - The demand for stainless steel had some support, but the short - term supply - demand contradiction was still large [8]. - The supply of nickel iron may decrease slightly in July, and the over - supply situation is difficult to reverse in the short term [8]. - The supply of intermediate products is expected to loosen [9]. - Last week, nickel prices fluctuated around 120,000 yuan/ton, and the market sentiment was cautious [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate had a significant weekly increase, with the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate rising 1,000 yuan on average [12]. - The price of Australian imported lithium concentrate also increased [12]. - The weak reality of lithium carbonate remains, with high production and inventory [12]. Alumina - On July 18, the alumina index rose 1.33% to 3,120 yuan/ton [14]. - The spot prices in some regions increased, and the import window was closed [14]. - The futures warehouse receipts decreased to a historical low [14]. - The short - term price may be strong, but the over - capacity situation is difficult to change in the year [14]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,725 yuan/ton [17]. - The spot prices in some markets increased, and the raw material prices were stable [17]. - The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased by 1.69% [17]. - The stainless steel price may rise slightly due to policy and demand support [17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Last week, cast aluminum alloy futures prices first declined and then rose, with the AD2511 contract falling 0.28% to 19,875 yuan/ton [19]. - The weighted contract's open interest decreased slightly, and the contract spread was stable [19]. - The spot price was relatively stable, and the production cost increased [19]. - The production volume increased, and the total inventory decreased [19].

Group 1: Accelerating Development in Information and Communication Industry - Accelerate the deployment of 5G-A and ten-gigabit optical networks [1] - Promote the synergy between industrial internet and artificial intelligence [1] - Advance the research and development of 6G technology, focusing on the cultivation of application industry ecosystems for 6G [1] - Gradually open up value-added telecommunications services to foreign investment, supporting more foreign enterprises to participate in pilot projects [1] Group 2: Implementing New Round of Growth Stabilization Actions - A new growth stabilization work plan for industries such as machinery, automotive, and power equipment will be issued soon [2] - Continuous implementation of high-quality development plans for copper, aluminum, and gold industries [2] - Work plans for ten key industries including steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials will be released shortly [2] - Focus on structural adjustments, supply optimization, and phasing out outdated production capacity in key industries [2] - Accelerate the implementation of "Artificial Intelligence +" actions, promoting the deployment of large models in key manufacturing sectors [2] - Foster innovation and development in future industries such as humanoid robots, metaverse, and brain-computer interfaces, with a proactive layout in new fields and tracks [2] Group 3: Promoting Intelligent and Green Transformation and Upgrading - A digital transformation implementation plan for the automotive industry will be issued [3] - Implementation plans for digital transformation in machinery and power equipment industries will be executed [3] - Digital transformation plans for textiles, light industry, food, and pharmaceuticals are forthcoming [3] Group 4: Supporting Healthy Development of Small and Medium Enterprises - Special actions will be launched to address the issue of overdue payments to small and medium enterprises [4] - Research and revision of the classification standards for small and medium enterprises will be conducted, facilitating tax and fee policies to benefit small and micro enterprises [4] - The establishment of the second phase of the National Small and Medium Enterprises Development Fund will be promoted, attracting more social capital for early, small, long-term, and hard technology investments [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on July 18, 2025 [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 18, 2025, the domestic spot price was 78,010, the LME price was 9,538, and the ratio was 8.19. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.17, with a profit of - 219.86. The domestic three - month price was 77,830, the LME price was 9,597, and the ratio was 8.12 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,120, the LME price was 2,693, and the ratio was 8.21. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.68, with a profit of - 1,248.97. The domestic three - month price was 22,085, the LME price was 2,696, and the ratio was 6.24 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,570, the LME price was 2,564, and the ratio was 8.02. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.53, with a profit of - 1,293.96. The domestic three - month price was 20,355, the LME price was 2,567, and the ratio was 7.96 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 118,550, the LME price was 14,787, and the ratio was 8.02. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.25, with a profit of - 2,413.78 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,625, the LME price was 1,946, and the ratio was 8.58. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.86, with a profit of - 540.93. The domestic three - month price was 16,905, the LME price was 1,974, and the ratio was 11.19 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were - 130, - 150, - 190, and - 290 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 492, 882, 1281, and 1680 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 75, 40, 10, and - 35, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 332, 452, and 571 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 60, - 120, - 185, and - 240, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 328, 442, and 557 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 20, 10, 30, and 105, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 315, 420, and 526 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 580, - 460, - 220, and - 70 [4] - **Tin**: The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts was 450, and the theoretical spread was 5437 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 20 and - 150, and the theoretical spreads were 465 and 878 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 75 and 0, and the theoretical spreads were 186 and 315 (also 172 and 286 in another record) [4][5] - **Lead**: The spreads were 270 and 250, and the theoretical spreads were 216 and 327 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On July 18, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 3.52, 3.82, 4.60, 0.92, 1.20, and 0.77 respectively, and in London (three - continuous contracts) were 3.53, 3.75, 4.90, 0.94, 1.31, and 0.72 [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight LME copper fluctuated weakly, down 0.21% to $9,637/ton; SHFE copper main contract slightly declined 0.01% to CNY 77,950/ton. The domestic spot import remained in a loss, with the loss narrowing. The US economic data and Fed's report showed some economic improvement, but the copper market was worried about the global economic outlook. The short - term inventory was accumulating, and the demand was weak due to the off - season. The copper price showed weakness, and its trend was unclear. If the 50% copper tariff became a reality, it would cause short - term high volatility [1]. - Alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The Guinea's policy on bauxite index raised cost concerns. The short - term near - month contracts were expected to remain strong due to factors like low inventory and cost support. The new US tariff was about to be implemented, which might lead to global liquidity tightening. The aluminum ingot inventory accumulation was not smooth, and it was difficult for the price to fall significantly. The aluminum alloy was affected by the off - season [1][2]. - Overnight LME nickel fell 1.48% to $14,990/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.9% to CNY 119,510/ton. The Indonesian nickel mine production plan was announced, and the nickel ore price decreased slightly. The stainless - steel cost support weakened, and the inventory remained high. The demand for nickel in the new - energy industry increased slightly in July. The nickel price was expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to overseas policy changes [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Research Views - **Copper**: The price of LME and SHFE copper decreased. The US economic data and Fed's report affected the market sentiment. The inventory increased in multiple exchanges, and the demand was weak due to the off - season and trade policies. The price showed weakness, and the trend was unclear [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina prices fell, while aluminum and aluminum alloy prices rose. The Guinea's policy, domestic market factors, and inventory conditions affected the price trend. The short - term near - month contracts were expected to be strong, and the price was difficult to fall significantly [1][2]. - **Nickel**: The price of LME and Shanghai nickel decreased. The Indonesian nickel mine production plan, nickel ore price, stainless - steel industry situation, and new - energy industry demand affected the nickel price. It was expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of some copper products changed slightly, and the inventory increased in LME, COMEX, and social inventory. The import loss narrowed [3]. - **Lead**: The price of lead products decreased, and the inventory in LME decreased while the inventory in SHFE increased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum products changed, and the inventory in LME and SHFE increased, as well as the social inventory of alumina [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of some nickel products increased, and the inventory in LME increased while the inventory in SHFE decreased. The stainless - steel inventory decreased [4]. - **Zinc**: The price of zinc products decreased, and the inventory in LME and SHFE increased, as well as the social inventory [5]. - **Tin**: The price of tin products decreased, and the inventory in LME increased while the inventory in SHFE decreased [5]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts showed the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts presented the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [13][16][17]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts displayed the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [19][21][23]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts showed the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [26][28][30]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts presented the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts showed the trends of copper concentrate index, copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [39][41][43]. Group 4: Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a medium - level gold investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many spot leading enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won many awards [46]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He provides policy interpretations and writes in - depth reports [46]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy and provides policy interpretations [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is affected by Trump's tariff news, with high uncertainty in the US employment market, inflation, and retail sales. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates at the end of the month is limited, and risks need to be vigilant [1]. - Different metals have different market trends and investment strategies. For example, copper prices may show a high - fall trend, aluminum has limited upward space, zinc continues to be short - allocated, lead is expected to be strongly volatile, nickel and stainless steel are under pressure, tin continues to be short - allocated, and some non - ferrous metals such as lithium carbonate and industrial silicon have certain rebound trends [1]. 3. Summary by Metal Variety Copper - Market situation: The CSPT group did not set a spot purchase guidance price for copper concentrate this quarter, with a large contradiction between mining and smelting. The US tariff policy may affect copper prices, and the spread between refined and scrap copper has changed. The LME 3 - month spot premium has turned into a discount of $60. The market is likely to show a high - fall trend [1]. - Investment strategy: Short positions are held. Consider selling 2508 contract call options with an exercise price of 80,000 and buying 2508 contract put options with an exercise price of 76,000 in a 1:2 ratio [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Market situation: The rainy season in Guinea has come, but due to the large increase in domestic bauxite imports and inventory recovery, the market rumors of the resumption of production of Shunda Mining. The operating capacity of alumina has remained at 93.55 million tons, and the industry's total inventory is stable. The demand for aluminum is affected by the traditional off - season, high - cost aluminum, and high - temperature weather. The inventory has increased, and the price has adjusted [1]. - Investment strategy: Hold the short - allocation strategy for Shanghai aluminum [1]. Zinc - Market situation: After the LME zinc rebounded back to the 60 - day moving average last week, the domestic inventory increased, and the upward momentum of Shanghai zinc was insufficient. As a mine - end pricing variety, it continues the short - allocation strategy, and observe the rhythm of short - sellers' second entry [1]. Lead - Market situation: The LME lead fluctuated, and the Shanghai lead stepped back on the key level of 17,000. The market divergence increased. The supply of domestic lead ore is tight, and the supply of lead ingots is restricted by raw materials. The demand is in the off - season, but there is some consumption expectation. The cost provides strong support, and the impact of tariffs is repeated [1]. - Investment strategy: Long positions are held at 17,000 [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market situation: Shanghai nickel fluctuated at a low level. The stainless steel market is in the traditional off - season, with large inventory, weak demand, and reduced cost support. The price of ferronickel has increased, and the inventory has also increased [1]. - Investment strategy: Shanghai nickel is in the middle - late stage of the rebound, and short - sellers should beware [1]. Tin - Market situation: The LME tin inventory is around 2,000 tons, providing support for tin prices. The supply in Central Africa has decreased, and domestic processing fees are tight. The domestic downstream has a certain replenishment, and the inventory has decreased. The export of some products has decreased. The domestic tin market continues the previous theme, with high domestic and low external visible inventory [1]. - Investment strategy: Continue the short - allocation strategy. Consider short - selling contracts in the high - level range of 258,000 - 272,000 [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Market situation: The trading atmosphere of lithium carbonate has rebounded, with active trading. The spot price of lithium battery has risks, and the procurement is relatively cautious [1]. Industrial Silicon - Market situation: The price of industrial silicon has rebounded, and the demand has increased marginally. The production in Xinjiang has continued to decline, and the marginal increase in Yunnan in July is limited. The inventory has decreased, and the market is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. Polysilicon - Market situation: The price of polysilicon has broken through 40,000 yuan/ton. The production in July has exceeded the previous range, and the inventory has increased. The production of batteries has continued to decline, and the price is affected by polysilicon [1]. - Investment strategy: The price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly, and policy expectations are the main trading logic [1].

中信证券认为，该协议反映出美国高度重视稀土永磁供给的独立性，以及美国本土生产镨钕金属的高成 本，进一步凸显出稀土资源战略价值。需求方面，新能源汽车、空调、工业机器人等需求持续增长，人 形机器人商业化进程加速有望打开稀土永磁远期需求增长空间。此外，出口逐步恢复叠加东南亚雨季下 供给刚性提升，稀土价格有望稳中有进，进而带动产业链公司盈利能力持续提升。 有色ETF基金紧密跟踪国证有色金属行业指数，国证有色金属行业指数参照国证行业分类标准，选取归 属于有色金属行业的规模和流动性突出的50只证券作为样本，反映了沪深北交易所有色金属行业上市公 司的整体收益表现，向市场提供细分行业的指数化投资标的。 截至2025年7月14日 09:36，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)强势上涨1.78%，成分股中金黄金(600489)上 涨7.79%，北方稀土(600111)上涨6.70%，盛和资源(600392)上涨5.34%，天齐锂业(002466)，金力永磁 (300748)等个股跟涨。有色ETF基金(159880)上涨1.62%， 冲击3连涨。 数据显示，截至2025年6月30日，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)前十大权重 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US copper tariff policy has increased market volatility, and the price differences between US copper, LME copper, and SHFE copper are expected to widen. There is a risk of correction for LME copper and SHFE copper. [2] - The aluminum market is affected by the strong domestic commodity atmosphere, but the expected increase in aluminum ingot inventory in July may resist the upward movement of aluminum prices. [4] - The lead price shows a relatively strong trend, but the increase of SHFE lead is expected to be limited due to weak domestic consumption. [5] - The zinc price has rebounded, but the expected increase in zinc ingot supply and limited consumption may restrict its upward space. [7] - The tin market is in a stalemate between supply shortage and limited acceptance of high - price raw materials by the end - users, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range. [8][9] - The nickel price is affected by macro - sentiment, but the weak demand for stainless steel and the high premium of nickel price over nickel - iron limit its upward space, and it is recommended to sell short on rallies. [10] - The fundamental situation of lithium carbonate is weak, with increased production and inventory, and the upward space of lithium price is limited. [12] - The alumina market has an over - capacity pattern, and it is recommended to short on rallies, with the price anchored to the cost. [15] - The stainless steel market shows a short - term improvement, but the future trend depends on the implementation of anti - involution policies and the substantial improvement of the fundamentals. [17] - The casting aluminum alloy market has weak supply and demand in the off - season, and the futures price faces upward pressure. [19] 3. Summary by Metals Copper - Market performance: LME copper rose 0.23% to $9682/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78,590 yuan/ton. [2] - Inventory: LME inventory increased by 975 tons to 108,100 tons, and domestic refined copper social inventory and bonded - area inventory both increased slightly. [2] - Price outlook: There is a risk of correction for LME copper and SHFE copper, and the price difference between US copper and others is expected to widen. The operating range of SHFE copper is 77,000 - 79,200 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 9,400 - 9,800 dollars/ton. [2] Aluminum - Market performance: LME aluminum rose 0.15% to $2606/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,760 yuan/ton. The position of SHFE aluminum weighted contract increased. [4] - Inventory: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased, while LME aluminum inventory increased. [4] - Price outlook: The expected increase in aluminum ingot inventory in July may resist the upward movement of aluminum prices. The operating range of SHFE aluminum is 20,600 - 20,850 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2,570 - 2,640 dollars/ton. [4] Lead - Market performance: SHFE lead index rose 0.34% to 17,238 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2068/ton. [5] - Inventory: Domestic social inventory increased slightly. [5] - Price outlook: The lead price shows a relatively strong trend, but the increase of SHFE lead is expected to be limited due to weak domestic consumption. [5] Zinc - Market performance: SHFE zinc index rose 1.28% to 22,347 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2767/ton. [7] - Inventory: Domestic social inventory increased slightly. [7] - Price outlook: The zinc price has rebounded, but the expected increase in zinc ingot supply and limited consumption may restrict its upward space. [7] Tin - Market performance: SHFE tin rose 1.46% to 266,740 yuan/ton. [8] - Supply - demand situation: The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand is in the off - season, with weak procurement intention. [8] - Price outlook: The domestic tin price is expected to fluctuate between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin price between 31,000 - 33,000 dollars/ton. [9] Nickel - Market performance: SHFE nickel rose 1.92% to 121,720 yuan/ton, and LME nickel rose 1.90% to $15,285/ton. [10] - Fundamental contradiction: The weak demand for stainless steel leads to a decline in nickel - iron price, and the high premium of nickel price over nickel - iron limits its upward space. [10] - Price outlook: It is recommended to sell short on rallies, with the operating range of SHFE nickel at 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and that of LME nickel 3M at 14,500 - 16,000 dollars/ton. [10] Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The MMLC index rose 0.32%, and the LC2509 contract fell 0.34%. [12] - Supply - demand situation: Production increased by 3.8% to 18,813 tons, and inventory increased by 1.8% to 140,793 tons. [12] - Price outlook: The upward space of lithium price is limited. The operating range of the LC2509 contract is 62,900 - 65,300 yuan/ton. [12] Alumina - Market performance: The alumina index rose 2.44% to 3,186 yuan/ton. [14] - Cost and price: The price is anchored to the cost, and it is recommended to short on rallies. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2,800 - 3,300 yuan/ton. [15] Stainless Steel - Market performance: The stainless steel main contract rose 0.74% to 12,865 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased. [17] - Inventory: Social inventory increased by 0.93%. [17] - Price outlook: The future trend depends on the implementation of anti - involution policies and the substantial improvement of the fundamentals. [17] Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market performance: The AD2511 contract rose 0.55% to 19,940 yuan/ton. [19] - Inventory: The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three regions increased. [19] - Price outlook: The futures price faces upward pressure due to weak supply and demand in the off - season. [19]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in non-ferrous metals prices are influenced by supply-side reforms in China and the announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports by the U.S. starting August 1, 2025, which has created a divergence in copper prices between the U.S. and China [1][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The supply-side reforms in China have benefitted traditional industries like aluminum, steel, and coal, leading to price increases due to low inventory levels [1]. - Following the U.S. tariff announcement, copper prices in New York rose over 2%, while domestic copper prices in China fell, indicating market concerns about reduced global demand for copper [1][7]. - The China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Index showed a strong upward trend initially but experienced a significant drop during the tariff announcement period, reflecting market volatility [1]. Group 2: Financing Trends - As of July 9, 2025, the financing balance for the non-ferrous metals sector increased by 9.64 billion, indicating strong investor interest despite market fluctuations [4][6]. - The construction materials sector saw the highest financing balance growth rate at 1.43%, followed by non-ferrous metals at 1.22% [4][6]. Group 3: ETF Strategies - The non-ferrous metals ETFs are relatively small in scale, with three funds exceeding 4 billion in size, including the leading Southern CSI Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals ETF [8][10]. - The Dachen Non-Ferrous Metals Futures ETF is sensitive to price fluctuations due to its direct tracking of futures contracts, making it suitable for investors who closely monitor commodity prices [10][12]. - The Southern CSI Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals ETF, with a scale exceeding 50 billion, is favored by investors for its comprehensive coverage of the non-ferrous metals sector [10][13]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term risks from U.S. tariffs and seasonal demand fluctuations, supply constraints are expected to support copper prices in the medium term [7]. - The long-term demand for copper and aluminum is anticipated to increase, driven by structural changes in downstream consumption, which may elevate the price stability of these metals [19].