Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton sector in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock industry is "Bullish Bias" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - ICE US cotton futures have corrected, and the main 03 contract settled at 64.85 cents, down 0.32%. The expectation of a tight balance in Zhengzhou cotton continues to intensify. Zhengzhou cotton has encountered resistance at the 15,000 integer level after continuous upward movement. In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton may undergo some adjustments at the current level, but the bottom support is solid and the downside space is limited [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1) Market Quotes - ICE March contract settled at 65.06, up 41 points; May at 66.43, up 44 points; July at 67.74, up 43 points, with about 86,000 contracts traded. Zhengzhou cotton had a total trading volume of 795,874 and an open interest of 1,246,090. The settlement prices were 15,100 for January, 14,965 for May, and 15,155 for September [2] 2) Important News - On January 4, spinning enterprises in the Bazhou area of southern Xinjiang purchased 31 - grade double - 29 machine - picked new cotton with less than 2.8% impurity in Xinjiang warehouses. The contract basis transaction price was 950 - 1050 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 15,500 - 15,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2] - As of December 18, 2025, the United States had cumulatively signed and exported 1.488 million tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, accounting for 56.03% of the annual expected export volume, and had cumulatively shipped 640,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 43.01% [2] - As of now this season, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has cumulatively purchased about 2.85 million tons of seed cotton, 39% of which is from Telangana. Converted at a lint percentage of 35%, the CCI's cumulative purchase is equivalent to about 998,000 tons of lint cotton [2] - The cotton - growing area in West Texas, USA, is dry and windy, while the temperatures in the central - southern and southeastern cotton - growing areas are rising [2] - On January 4, the spot price of cotton yarn rose slightly. After the holiday, spinning enterprises gradually resumed production, and the overall production and sales in the market were relatively stable, mostly in a shipping state. The cotton yarn price continued to rise in some areas and remained stable in others [2] 3) Market Logic - ICE US cotton futures have corrected, and the expectation of a tight balance in Zhengzhou cotton continues to intensify. Zhengzhou cotton has faced resistance at the 15,000 level. Due to the decrease in cotton planting subsidies in the new year and the increase in rigid demand from new production capacity in Xinjiang, short - term adjustments may occur, but the bottom support is strong [2] 4) Trading Strategy - Hold the call option with an execution price of 13,600 yuan/ton for the 05 contract [2]

来源：@华夏时报微博 华夏时报记者 叶青 北京报道 近期棉花期货价格呈现持续攀升态势，郑棉主力合约表现尤为突出。2025年12月以来，合约价格从13600元/吨左 右稳步上行，单月涨幅近千元，突破14000元/吨关键阻力位后加速拉涨。截至2026年1月7日，郑棉主力合约收盘 价达15035元/吨，创1年半新高。自2025年12月1日至2026年1月7日，郑棉主力合约涨幅达10%。 "近期棉花期货大幅上涨，其核心驱动有两方面，一方面，棉花消费好于预期，当前新棉处于集中上市期，加工、 公检进度快于往年，但棉花商业库存累库情况不及预期。据公开数据，截至2025年12月15日，全国棉花商业库存 同比下滑1.65万吨，棉花表观消费同比增加，利多棉价。另一方面，政策端预期同样利多棉价。"中信期货资深研 究员吴静雯接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示。 多重利多加持 "自2025年10月下旬以来，国内棉花期货出现大幅上涨，其原因主要包括三方面：首先是宏观层面，目前中美关系 缓和，中美关税互降对我国纺织品服装出口也是一大利好，未来一年效果可能会逐渐凸显。其次是有消息称2026 年新疆棉花种植面积可能会减少，这对棉花价格形成一定利多 ...

消息方面，截至 12 月 31 日，2025/26 年榨季广西 73 家糖厂已全部开榨，同比减少 1 家；累计入榨甘 蔗 1623.03 万吨，同比减少 525.15 万吨；产混合糖 194.19 万吨，同比减少 80.95 万吨；混合产糖率 11.96%，同比降低 0.85 个百分点；累计销糖 88.48 万吨，同比减少 74.74 万吨；产销率 45.56%，同比 下降 13.76 个百分点。其中 12 月份广西单月产糖 180.8 万吨，同比减少 43.1 万吨；单月销糖 79.54 万 吨，同比减少 55.18 万吨；工业库存 105.71 万吨，同比减少 6.21 万吨。现货报价方面，广西制糖集团 报价区间为5300~5370元/吨，上调10~20元/吨；云南制糖集团报价5120~5220元/吨，个别上调10~20元/ 吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为5700~5900元/吨，少数调整30~50元/吨，涨跌不一。原糖方面，市场对于 印度产量同比大幅提升反应平淡，市场仍维持震荡格局。国内方面，春节补库开始，成交有所好转，加 之近期大宗商品整体较为强势，期价向区间上沿攀升，未来关键在于本月压榨进度及进口情况， ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Agricultural Products R & D Report - Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily [1] - Date: January 6, 2026 - Researchers: Wang Xizhen, Liu Qiannan Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 14,955, up 215; trading volume was 9,463 lots, down 828; open interest was 76,464 lots, down 6181 [2] - CF05 contract closed at 14,855, up 200; trading volume was 394,159 lots, down 98,579; open interest was 915,854 lots, up 25,993 [2] - CF09 contract closed at 15,040, up 195; trading volume was 32,651 lots, down 12,617; open interest was 78,436 lots, up 6,406 [2] - CY01 contract closed at 20,250, down 225; trading volume was 32 lots, up 32; open interest was 378 lots, unchanged [2] - CY05 contract closed at 20,880, up 230; trading volume was 61 lots, down 22; open interest was 171 lots, up 7 [2] - CY09 contract closed at 20,695, down 90; trading volume was 1 lot, unchanged; open interest was 14 lots, unchanged [2] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 15,711 yuan/ton, up 126; CY IndexC32S was 21,240 yuan, up 40 [2] - Cot A was 74.05 cents/pound; FCY IndexC33S was 20,985 yuan, up 24 [2] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 71.49; Indian S - 6 was 55,800 yuan, unchanged [2] - Polyester staple fiber was 7,450 yuan, up 70; pure polyester yarn T32S was 11,080 yuan, unchanged [2] - Viscose staple fiber was 12,730 yuan, unchanged; viscose yarn R30S was 17,320 yuan, unchanged [2] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 100, up 15; 5 - 9 spread was - 185, up 5; 9 - 1 spread was 85, down 20 [2] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 630, down 455; 5 - 9 spread was 185, up 320; 9 - 1 spread was 445, up 135 [2] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 5,295, down 440; CY05 - CF05 was 6,025, up 30; CY09 - CF09 was 5,655, down 285 [2] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 2,827, up 139; sliding - scale domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,810, up 130; domestic - foreign yarn spread was 255, up 16 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of December 31, 2025, Pakistan's new cotton listing in 2025/26 reached 842,000 tons, almost the same year - on - year; textile mills purchased 757,000 tons, up 1.1% year - on - year; unsold new cotton was 85,000 tons, down 8.5% year - on - year [4] - As of December 30, 2025, ICE cotton futures fund net long ratio was - 16.13% (up 0.41 percentage points week - on - week, up 2.46 percentage points last week) [4] - As of December 27, 2025, Brazil's 2025/26 cotton planting was 25.1% complete, up 8.2 percentage points month - on - month, 0.1 percentage points slower year - on - year, and 0.3 percentage points slower than the three - year average [4] Trading Logic - Xinjiang Cotton Association's article confirms the rumor of reduced cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026. Cotton sales are fast, and consumption is expected to increase due to improved Sino - US relations and expansion of Xinjiang textile mills [5] - China signed 20,000 tons of US cotton last week, providing upward momentum for US cotton. The cotton price is supported by fundamental factors, but there may be short - term correction risks [5] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to trade in a range, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish with short - term correction risks [6] - Arbitrage: Hold off [7] - Options: Hold off [8][12] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The pure cotton yarn market is weak, with only rigid demand. Some factories have orders for 10 - 15 days. Yarn mills raised prices, but downstream acceptance is low [8] - The pure cotton grey fabric market is also weak. Dyeing factories are working on previous orders, and weavers find it difficult to get new orders before the Spring Festival [8] Group 4: Options - Volatility: Cotton's 10 - day HV was 6.4492, slightly higher than the previous day. CF601 - C - 13400 implied volatility was 6.7%, CF601 - P - 13000 was 11.4%, and CF601 - P - 12400 was 17.8% [10] - Options Strategy: Hold off [12] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05, CY01 - CF01, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [14][17][21][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton is under certain hedging pressure. Downstream textile mills have a rigid demand for cotton, so the short - term cotton price may continue to be stable with a slight upward bias. In the medium - to - long term, both policies and fundamentals are expected to improve, and the center of cotton prices may rise [2] - The core logic includes large cotton production this year leading to hedging pressure on the futures market; the overall stable operating rate of textile mills and the rigid demand for cotton from expanding enterprises in Xinjiang; positive expectations for cotton planting area and target subsidies [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. One - week Data Overview - **Commodity Price Changes**: The CotlookA index rose 0.3 cents/lb to 74.3 cents/lb, a 0.41% increase; NYMEX light crude oil rose $0.4/barrel to $57.33/barrel, a 0.7% increase; ICE No. 2 cotton fell 0.45 cents/lb to 64.01 cents/lb, a 0.7% decrease. Among the import cotton CNF prices, FCIndex to - port price rose 0.34 cents/lb to 73.96 cents/lb, a 0.46% increase [5] - **Cotton Futures and Spot Prices**: As of December 31, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract 05 closed at 14585 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from December 26, with a cumulative reduction of 43,000 lots in positions to 861,000 lots. The ICE cotton main contract 03 in December was at 64.3 cents/lb, down 0.16 cents/lb from December 26, a 0.2% decrease; the cotton spot price index was at 15556 yuan/ton, up 239 yuan/ton from last week, a 1.56% increase [6] 2. Domestic Market Basic Situation - **Raw Material Prices**: On December 31, raw material prices showed mixed trends. The short - fiber main contract closing price rose 30 yuan/ton to 6514 yuan/ton, a 0.46% increase; the cotton main contract closing price rose 405 yuan/ton to 14585 yuan/ton, a 2.86% increase; the cotton spot 3128B market price rose 285 yuan/ton to 15556 yuan/ton, a 1.87% increase; the polyester short - fiber price rose 65 yuan/ton to 6520 yuan/ton, a 1.01% increase; the viscose short - fiber price fell 25 yuan/ton to 12825 yuan/ton, a 0.19% decrease [9] - **Domestic Yarn Prices**: On December 31, domestic yarn prices moved slightly upward. The OEC10S air - spun yarn rose 130 yuan/ton to 15000 yuan/ton, a 0.87% increase; the C32S carded yarn rose 100 yuan/ton to 20900 yuan/ton, a 0.48% increase; the C40S carded yarn rose 120 yuan/ton to 21800 yuan/ton, a 0.55% increase [11] - **Imported Yarn Prices**: In dollar terms, the price of foreign yarn moved slightly upward. The FCYIndexJC32S to - port price rose 0.01 dollars/kg to 2.67 dollars/kg, a 0.38% increase; the Pakistan C21S imported yarn to - port price rose 0.01 dollars/kg to 2.37 dollars/kg, a 0.42% increase. In RMB terms, the price of foreign yarn increased collectively, with the Vietnam C32S imported yarn port pick - up price rising 50 yuan/ton to 21240 yuan/ton, a 0.24% increase [14][18] - **Cotton Price Spreads**: On December 31, the spread between the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128B and the FCindex sliding - tariff port pick - up price was 1626 yuan/ton, up 247 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread widened; the spread between the Zhengzhou cotton main contract and the FCindex sliding - tariff port pick - up price was 655 yuan/ton, up 367 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread widened. The spread between the Zhengzhou cotton main contract and the tariff - included ICE main contract was 1775 yuan/ton, up 406 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread widened; the spread between the Zhengzhou cotton main contract and the ICE main contract's converted on - screen price was 4672 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread widened [22][24] - **Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: On December 31, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 9239, an increase of 1047 from last week. Among them, the total number of warehouse receipts was 5712, an increase of 1342 from last week; the total number of effective forecasts was 3527, a decrease of 295 from last week [27] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Futures - Spot Spread**: As of December 31, the spread between the Zhengzhou cotton main contract and the CCI3128B spot price index was - 971 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread narrowed [29] - **Cotton Inventory**: As of December 15, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 534.9 million tons, an increase of 66.54 million tons from half a month ago. The total inventory in Xinjiang was 438.97 million tons, an increase of 59.92 million tons from half a month ago; the total inventory in the inland was 61.13 million tons, an increase of 5.02 million tons from half a month ago; the bonded - area cotton inventory was 34.8 million tons, an increase of 2.6 million tons from half a month ago [32] - **Cotton Imports**: As of November 30, the monthly cotton import volume was 12 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons from the previous month, a 33% increase; compared with the same period, it increased by 1 million tons, a 9% increase [34] 3. Zhengzhou Cotton Market Analysis - **Macro - environment**: In 2026, the national subsidy for the large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policy will continue, and the support scope will be optimized. In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, entering the expansion range. The production index and new order index increased, indicating an acceleration of production activities and an improvement in market demand [1][35] - **Supply - side Situation**: From December 26 - 25, the US 2025/26 cotton grading inspection was 12.92 million tons, with 82.1% of lint meeting the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements. As of the same period, the cumulative grading inspection was 255.35 million tons, with 82.7% of lint meeting the requirements. There are rumors about a reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026/27, but official confirmation is needed [1][35] - **Demand - side Situation**: From January - November, the textile industry's total profit was 618.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%, and the decline accelerated. The demand side was weak, and the problem of insufficient downstream orders could not be solved in the short term. The import of yarn continued to impact the market, and the price increase space for pure - cotton yarn was limited. However, downstream textile mills had the intention to replenish inventory due to rigid demand [1][35] - **Market Performance and Outlook**: The center of Zhengzhou cotton futures moved slightly upward this week. In the short term, supported by fundamentals, Zhengzhou cotton was relatively strong. Before the New Year's Day holiday, some profit - taking funds left the market, and market trading became more cautious. The market expected a reduction in domestic cotton production in the new year, which supported cotton prices. High - count combed cotton yarn performed well, while conventional medium - and low - count yarns faced inventory pressure. In the short term, the downside space was limited. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the implementation of Xinjiang's planting policy and the recovery of downstream demand [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the stock index may continue a relatively strong trend, but attention should be paid to the impact of overseas geopolitical events on market risk appetite. In the long - term, the stock index is expected to rise in 2026 based on 2025 [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have various trends, including price increases, oscillations, and potential reversals, with corresponding investment strategies recommended [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Short - term, the stock index may continue to be strong, and in the long - term (2026), it is expected to rise on the basis of 2025 due to factors like continuous policy efforts, inflation recovery, capital market reform, and the support of Central Huijin [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks, and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price has further increased due to weak industry fundamentals but positive macro sentiment and continuous premium. However, short - term adjustment risks should be guarded against, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but positive macro sentiment and the early fermentation of supply - tightness expectations are likely to keep the price strong [1]. - Alumina: The supply side has a large release space, and the weak industry fundamentals put pressure on the price. However, the current price is near the cost line, so it is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, recent negative factors have been mostly realized, and market sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Nickel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about supply due to Indonesian events, slow inventory accumulation, and unconfirmed Indonesian policies are likely to keep the short - term price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices and control risks [1]. - Stainless Steel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about raw - material supply, a rebound in nickel - iron prices, a slight reduction in social inventory, and an increase in January production plans are likely to keep the short - term futures price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and enterprises should wait for opportunities to sell and hedge [1]. - Tin: The industry association's initiative has put pressure on the price, but considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, the supply may still be affected. After a short - term decline, the downward space is limited, and low - long opportunities near the support level are recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks and international - order uncertainties have boosted the demand for hedging, making the price strong in the short - term. However, the high VIX of silver indicates potential risks. Platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long - platinum short - palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: There is a combination of weak reality (weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation) and strong expectation (potential supply disturbances from energy - consumption control and anti - involution). The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, while the far - month contract has upward potential [1]. - Steel (including Rebar): The valuation of the price is not high, and it is not recommended to short. Positions in cash - and - carry arbitrage can take rolling profits [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are acceptable, and the valuation is low, so the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply and demand, low valuation, and limited downward space, and may oscillate under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal: The fourth - round spot price cut has started. After the futures price dropped to the corresponding position and rebounded, attention should be paid to whether it can reach a new low during the implementation of the price cut. There is a high possibility of wide - range oscillations [1]. - Coke: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact on the price [1]. - Fuel Oil: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five - Year Plan's rush - work demand is falsified, the supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The cost is strongly supported, the spot - futures price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1]. - Rubber: For natural rubber, the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate, and the price oscillates. For BR rubber, the futures position has declined, the price increase has slowed down, the processing profit is gradually repaired, it maintains high - level operation in terms of production and inventory, and the spot trading is weak [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp increase, and the domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the recovery of exports to India since the end of November [1]. - MEG: Two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, are planned to stop production due to efficiency reasons. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the downstream polyester operating rate is over 90%, with better - than - expected demand [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while buyers keep pressing prices due to weak downstream demand and profit compression. The market is in a weak - balance state, and the short - term upward momentum depends on overseas market drive [1]. - Steam: The upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the cost is strongly supported by high - level propylene monomers and rising crude - oil prices, and there is a risk of rising crude - oil prices due to intensified geopolitical conflicts [1]. - PVC: The global production in 2026 is expected to be low, but currently, new capacity is being released, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [1]. - Chlorine: The inventory pressure in Shandong is large, the supply pressure is high due to high - level operation and few overhauls, the non - aluminum demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is weakened by the rising price of liquid chlorine [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, providing strong cost - end support. Geopolitical conflicts in the US, Venezuela, and the Middle East have increased the short - term risk premium. The EIA weekly C3 inventory is in an accumulation trend, with a temporary slowdown in overseas demand. The domestic PDH maintains high - level operation but is deeply in deficit, and the overseas olefin blending - oil demand is acceptable [1]. New Energy and Silicon Industry - Polysilicon: There is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest. The December production plan has decreased. A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally. Large enterprises are willing to support the price but not to deliver. The short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply - side production resumption has increased, and the price has risen rapidly in the short - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be negative, but it may reverse under themes such as seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel. If the price gaps up due to geopolitical events, short - selling can be considered [1]. - Soybean Oil: It follows the trend of other oils in the short - term, and waiting for the January USDA report is recommended [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: News of blocked trader purchases and Australian seed imports has led to a large rebound in the single - side price and the 1 - 5 spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent loosening of the fundamental situation. A decline in sentiment is expected, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [1]. - Cotton: The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to factors such as the central government's No. 1 Document in the first quarter of next year, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a large supply of domestic new - crop sugar, with a strong consensus on short - selling. If the futures price continues to fall, the cost support is strong, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - Corn: The grass - roots grain - selling progress is relatively fast, the current port and downstream inventory levels are still low, and most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to have limited decline and then maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [1]. - Soybeans: Attention should be paid to the adjustment in the January USDA report and the impact of Brazilian harvest selling pressure on CNF premiums. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, while the M03 - M05 spread is expected to be in a positive - arbitrage situation in the short - term, but caution should be exercised due to potential changes in customs policies, soybean auctions, and directional policies [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug - of - war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottom - rebounding, and the downward space of the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward - driving factors in the spot - futures market. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Livestock - Hogs: The spot price has gradually stabilized recently, with demand support. The slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1].

Report Information - Report Date: January 6, 2026 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton showed a trend of rising on high volume and then falling back. The spot cotton price index of grade 328 was 15,615 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market had average trading, and the cotton fabric market had weak sales [7]. - As of January 4, 2026, the cumulative national cotton inspection was 6.5425 million tons, with a potential increase in the 2025/26 output. The downstream product prices followed the cotton price to strengthen steadily, and the overall inventory pressure was not large. After the short - term speculation on the expected reduction in planting, more positive factors were needed to support the price. The upper integer - level resistance was strong [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: Zhengzhou cotton rose on high volume and then fell back. The latest grade 328 cotton price index was 15,615 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The 2025/26 cotton prices in southern and northern Xinjiang were different, and the basis also varied. The cotton yarn market had average trading, and the cotton fabric market was weak [7]. - Operation Suggestions: In January, attention could be paid to the downstream restocking before the Spring Festival. Fundamentally, the upper integer - level resistance was strong [8]. 2. Industry News - As of January 4, 2026, 1,094 cotton processing enterprises participated in the inspection. The national cumulative inspection was 6.5425 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous day. Xinjiang's inspection volume was 6.4656 million tons, and the inland was 43,000 tons [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report presented multiple data charts, including cotton price indices, futures prices, spreads, and inventory data, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [14][16][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with the unchanged policy support for the capital market, the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [2][3]. - For treasury bonds, the improvement of market expectations for the economy may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [4][6]. - For precious metals, there may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [7][8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and market sentiment, with different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to slow down in their upward trend; aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong; zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term; lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have bottomed out in the short term; tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment; and the prices of some non - ferrous metal products such as stainless steel and casting aluminum alloy also have their own trends [10][11][13] [16][17][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations; glass prices may have some upward potential; and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [32][33][35]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be observed; the valuation of heavy - oil products in crude oil is expected to increase; methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies; and the trends of pure benzene, styrene, and other products are also affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [49][50][55]. - For agricultural products, the short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse; egg prices have limited upside and downside space; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate; the current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic; sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest; and cotton prices are recommended to go long on dips after a correction [78][79][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: The CSRC will strengthen the coordination of administrative, criminal, and civil actions to combat financial fraud. Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks, expecting a 15% - 20% annual increase in 2026 and 2027. The basis ratios of stock - index futures are provided [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with policy support, the medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of Treasury bond futures contracts have different changes. The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced policies for Yangtze River protection projects. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4688 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver have increased. Weak US manufacturing PMI data and geopolitical issues have strengthened the expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy, leading to a short - term increase in precious - metal prices [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of LME copper has reached 13,000 US dollars for the first time. The price of domestic copper has continued to be strong, with changes in inventory and basis [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down, with support from supply - side factors and pressure from demand - side factors [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic and international aluminum have accelerated their upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by factors such as supply - side disturbances and the high prices of precious metals and copper [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The prices of zinc futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and supply - demand relationships [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The prices of lead futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and market sentiment [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel has oscillated, with changes in spot premiums and cost factors [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared, and it is recommended to observe in the short term [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin has increased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and it is recommended to observe [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium has increased, with changes in futures prices and inventory [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium are expected to improve, but there are concerns about demand if prices remain high. It is recommended to observe or take a light - position attempt [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe. If there is no actual production - reduction action, short positions can be considered on rallies [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to consider going long on dips and pay attention to the implementation of policies [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has accelerated its upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by cost and supply - side factors [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass has decreased, and the price of soda ash has decreased. There are changes in inventory and basis [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass prices may have some upward potential, and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are affected by factors such as market sentiment, cost, and supply - side disturbances [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon has decreased, and the price of polysilicon has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [43][46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment [44][47]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber has oscillated and increased, with different views from bulls and bears [49][50]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil has decreased, and the prices of refined - oil products have also changed, with changes in inventory [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The valuation of heavy - oil products is expected to increase [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol have changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips [57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea have changed, with a certain basis [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have changed, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and basis [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is considered that the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair, and it is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC has decreased, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory [62][63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies before significant production cuts in the industry [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol needs to be improved through increased production cuts, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of para - xylene has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [74][75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - surplus pattern of PP may change in the first quarter of next year, and the price may bottom out [76]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The prices of live pigs in different regions have changed, with different supply and demand situations in the north and south [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts [79]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The prices of eggs have changed, with stable supply and different digestion speeds in the terminal market [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices have limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to short on rallies [81][82]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have changed, with changes in spot prices and inventory [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate, affected by factors such as import costs and inventory [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of oils and fats futures have decreased, with changes in spot prices and inventory [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic. The prices are not far from the bottom range [87][88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar futures has increased, with changes in spot prices and production data in different regions [89][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest, and the short - term downside space of domestic sugar prices is limited [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton futures has changed, with changes in spot prices, supply, demand, and inventory [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on cotton after a correction, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and policy expectations [93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong due to supportive market factors, with upward potential in the long - term, but there may be short - term回调 risks. The report expects US cotton to trade in a range and Zhengzhou cotton to trend upward with possible short - term corrections. For the cotton market, it is recommended to be cautious in trading strategies. The cotton yarn market has weak demand, with prices remaining stable and trading light [6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts all closed higher, with trading volume and open interest changes varying. CY01 remained flat, while CY05 and CY09 closed higher. Trading volume and open interest also changed accordingly [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B was 15,615 yuan/ton, and the price of Cot A was 74.30 cents/pound. The price of polyester staple fiber increased by 70 yuan/ton, while the price of viscose staple fiber remained unchanged [2]. - **Spread**: Cotton and cotton yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads all had different degrees of change [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of December 30, the drought index in the main US cotton - producing areas continued to rise, and it is expected to worsen in Q1. As of December 19, ICE cotton futures' ON - CALL data showed a decrease in the number of un - priced contracts. As of December 27, the progress of cotton planting in Brazil in the 2025/26 season accelerated, but it was still behind the average of the past three years [4][5]. Trading Logic - The rumored reduction in cotton production in Xinjiang has been gradually confirmed. Cotton sales are progressing rapidly, and there are positive expectations for consumption. China's signing of US cotton contracts also provides upward momentum. Overall, the cotton fundamentals are strong, but there may be short - term回调 risks [6]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: US cotton is expected to trade in a range, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trend upward with possible short - term corrections [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold off on trading [9]. - **Options**: Hold off on trading [10]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Today, the price of pure cotton yarn remained stable, with light trading. After the New Year's Day holiday, most spinning mills have resumed production, but the downstream demand is weak, and the market's purchasing enthusiasm is low, with most buyers making small - order purchases as needed [10]. Third Part: Options - **Volatility**: The 10 - day HV of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of different option contracts were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively [12]. - **Options Strategy**: Hold off on trading [14]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based domestic and foreign cotton price spread, cotton basis for different months, spreads between cotton yarn and cotton futures contracts, and spreads between different cotton futures contracts [16][19][23][24].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton futures have declined for four consecutive trading days. Holiday - season light trading and a stronger dollar have pressured the cotton market. However, geopolitical turmoil during the holiday benefits crude oil prices, which may be transmitted to cotton prices. In general, short - term Zhengzhou cotton may adjust at the current level, but the bottom support is solid and the downside space is limited [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - ICE 3 - month contract settlement price is 64.32, down 3 points; 5 - month is 65.64, up 1 point; 7 - month is 66.85, up 1 point, with about 37,000 lots traded. Zhengzhou cotton total trading volume is 450,502 lots, and the open interest is 1,106,314 lots. Settlement prices are 14,605 yuan/ton for January, 14,550 yuan/ton for May, and 14,725 yuan/ton for September [2] Important Information - In November, Japan imported 1,701 tons of cotton, a 6.6% decrease from the previous month (1,822 tons) and a 28.3% decrease year - on - year (2,374 tons). From August 2025 to July 2026, Japan has cumulatively imported about 6,692 tons of cotton, a 32.5% decrease year - on - year (9,912 tons) [2] - From December 12 to 18, 2025, the United States graded and inspected 199,300 tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, with 83.7% of the lint meeting ICE futures delivery requirements. As of the same period, the cumulative graded inspection was 2,424,300 tons, and 82.7% of the lint met the requirements [2] - On the 19th, the listed volume of Indian cotton for the 2025/26 season was about 42,000 tons of lint, mainly from Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. CCI auctioned about 72,000 tons on the 19th. The S - 6 auction reserve price was stable at 51,300 rupees/candy, equivalent to about 72.50 cents/pound [2] Market Logic - ICE cotton futures have declined for four consecutive days due to holiday - season light trading and a stronger dollar. Geopolitical turmoil benefits crude oil prices, which may affect cotton prices. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton may adjust, but the bottom support is solid [2] Trading Strategy - Hold the call option with an exercise price of 13,600 yuan/ton for the 05 contract [2]