1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall economic outlook is mixed, with most Fed districts reporting flat economic activity, some facing a risk of slowdown, and others showing slight growth or decline [8]. - The steel and ore market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the medium - to long - term [11][13]. - The bond market is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations [11]. - In the agricultural sector, different products have different trends, such as cotton in low - level oscillations, sugar under supply pressure, and eggs with high inventory and limited upside potential [26][28][29]. - In the energy and chemical industry, oil prices are in a long - term downward trend, and various products' prices follow different factors such as geopolitical events and supply - demand relationships [37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - information - China and the EU discussed semiconductor and other economic and trade issues, aiming to restore the semiconductor supply chain [6]. - Vanke faced a "double - kill" in stocks and bonds, and a bond展期 meeting will be held [6]. - Six departments issued a plan to boost consumer goods consumption, targeting specific consumption areas by 2027 [6]. - The Chinese non - ferrous metals association opposed zero or negative processing fees in copper smelting and managed copper smelting capacity [7]. - Treasury companies that hoarded cryptocurrencies suffered a "double - kill" in stock and coin prices [7]. - NVIDIA denied accounting fraud accusations [7]. - The Fed's economic activity was mostly flat, with some areas showing decline or growth, and the risk of slowdown increased [8]. - US economic data showed mixed results, including changes in jobless claims, durable goods orders [8][9]. - Japan's central bank may raise interest rates [8]. Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt a volatile mindset and temporarily hold off on trading. The A - share market had mixed performance, with military stocks falling and some concepts rising. Vanke's situation affected the market [10]. Treasury Futures - The bond market is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations. Although there were sharp fluctuations, the short - term nature was high, considering factors like capital and fundamentals [11]. Steel and Ore - Short - term: expected to be volatile; Medium - to long - term: bearish. Demand for building materials is weak, while demand for some plate products is okay. Supply may decline, and inventory is relatively high. Valuation shows that steel prices are likely to be weak [11][12][13]. Agriculture Cotton - Under the influence of large supply pressure and weak demand, it is in low - level oscillations, with high costs providing some support [26]. Sugar - Facing supply pressure, the price is under downward pressure, but cost provides a limit. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. Eggs - The near - month futures contracts are under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rebounds with caution. High inventory and weak consumption are the main factors, but there are positive expectations for the long - term [29][30]. Apples - Expected to be slightly bullish. The acquisition season has ended, and the market is now in the outbound stage. Prices are stable, and inventory and consumption need attention [31]. Corn - Pay attention to the upper pressure on the futures price. The current rise is due to "supply - demand mismatch," and there may be a correction in the spot price [33]. Red Dates - Temporarily wait and see. The prices in production and sales areas are stable, and the futures price is weak [34]. Pigs - In the short - term, supply pressure increases, and the price is weak. In the long - term, the decline in the number of sows is positive for prices [35]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - In a long - term downward trend, it is advisable to short on rallies. Geopolitical events and supply - demand expectations affect the price [37]. Fuel Oil - The price fluctuates with the oil price. Supply is loose, and demand is flat. Geopolitical and macro factors are the main drivers [39]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to be weak and volatile due to large supply and weak demand, but production losses may provide some support [40]. Rubber - The price difference between ru and nr may widen. Pay attention to Southeast Asian weather and raw material supply [41]. Synthetic Rubber - The short - term price is weak. It is advisable to hold short - call strategies or short on rallies [42]. Methanol - Near - month contracts: temporarily weak and volatile; Far - month contracts: turn to a volatile trend. Pay attention to inventory and import arrivals [43][44]. Caustic Soda - Keep a volatile mindset. The spot price is weakening, and the futures price is controlled by bears [45]. Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase. Pay attention to the price bottom after the winter storage game [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - The price is adjusting strongly due to improved sentiment and supply - demand structure. Different products in the chain have different supply - demand situations [47]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The short - term bullish factors are fully realized, and the price may turn weak. It is affected by supply, demand, and oil price trends [48]. Paper Pulp - Enter a range - bound stage. It is advisable to wait and see. The fundamentals are stable, and supply and demand are in a weak balance [49][50]. Logs - The fundamentals are weakly bearish. The spot price is under pressure, and the market is expected to be in a weak supply - demand balance [51]. Urea - The spot price may be bullish, and the futures market may have short - term emotional trading. Keep a wide - range volatile mindset [52]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Hold short positions at high levels. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the price is affected by macro and inventory factors [18]. Lead - Hold short positions cautiously. The price is falling, and the inventory is decreasing. Import and export data show certain trends [19][20][21]. Lithium Carbonate - In wide - range fluctuations. The short - term is affected by the game between weak fundamentals and long - term optimistic expectations [22]. Industrial Silicon - Continue to oscillate. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the adjustment space is limited [23]. Polysilicon - Continue to oscillate. Buy on dips. The supply - demand contradiction is weaker than the policy expectation contradiction [24].

Group 1: General Information - Report date: November 27, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted. The latest cotton price index for Grade 328 was 14,882 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The fixed-price quotations for machine-picked cotton in Northern Xinjiang (3130/29 - 30B/impurity within 3.5) were mostly around 14,600 - 14,800 yuan on a legal weight basis, with a small number of low prices between 14,500 - 14,600 yuan. The lower basis for the same-quality spot was CF01 + 1000 - 1150, and the higher sales basis was CF01 + 1150 - 1350, with sporadic low prices below 1000. The mainstream basis for machine-picked cotton of Grade 41 in Northern Xinjiang (excluding light speckled stains, double 29/impurity within 3.5) was CF01 + 900 and above, for self-pickup in Xinjiang [7]. - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market weakened, with new orders decreasing. Downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. High-count yarns maintained a good sales trend recently, with prices basically stable. The prices of other types of yarns were stable with a slight decline, and some manufacturers reduced prices by 100 - 200 yuan/ton. The all-cotton garment greige fabric market remained sluggish. The inventory level was still on the rise. Due to poor demand, there was severe homogeneous competition for conventional varieties, and the performance of some differentiated varieties was also mediocre, with scarce demand. In the export market, there was an obvious shortage of terminal orders, and the competition for orders among greige fabric mills was fierce [7]. - Overseas market: As of the week ending October 9, the weekly signing volume of U.S. upland cotton for the 2025/26 season was 35,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 21% and an increase of 1% compared with the average level of the previous four weeks. Among them, Vietnam signed 18,500 tons, and China signed 3,800 tons. Domestic market: As of November 25, the cumulative inspection volume nationwide reached 3.869 million tons, an increase of 89,000 tons from the previous day. Currently, there has been little change in the market order volume downstream. The operating rate of yarn mills remained stable, and the inventory pressure of downstream finished products was not high. Spinning mills made purchases of raw materials based on rigid demand. With limited changes in the fundamentals, it is advisable to try to go long at low prices under cost support and pay attention to the performance of the upper pressure level [8]. Group 3: Industry News - As of November 25, 2025, a total of 1,050 cotton processing enterprises across the country processed cotton and conducted notarized inspections in accordance with the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan. The cumulative inspection volume nationwide was 17,138,406 bales, totaling 3.869 million tons, an increase of 89,000 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 16,978,379 bales, totaling 3.8331 million tons, an increase of 88,000 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in the inland areas was 82,303 bales, totaling 182,000 tons [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple figures related to the cotton market, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, total warehouse receipts, USD/CNY exchange rate, and USD/Indian Rupee exchange rate. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [18][19][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: In Malaysia, the BMD crude palm oil futures may gradually recover and rise after the release of risks following the MPOB report and as India returns to the market next month. The domestic Dalian palm oil futures are under pressure to decline, with an expected support level at 8200. - Soybean oil: The uncertainty of biodiesel policies and short - term soybean export data affect the CBOT soybean and soybean oil. Domestically, the increase in soybean oil production and weak downstream demand lead to an increase in inventory, but the poor oil - mill profit and weak demand for soybean meal support the price. The spot basis quotation will maintain a narrow - range oscillation [1]. 2.2 Pig Industry The market supply is recovering, and the demand support is limited. Although there are sporadic epidemics in the Northeast, large - scale outbreaks are unlikely. The pig price is expected to maintain a weak and oscillating structure, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [4]. 2.3 Meal Industry The US soybean market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the South American new - crop soybean planting progress is good. Domestically, the soybean inventory is high, and the meal supply is loose. The meal price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [6]. 2.4 Corn Industry The corn price in the Northeast is strong due to limited logistics and storage support, while the price in North China is affected by the increase in supply. The demand side has different inventory replenishment intentions. The short - term supply - demand mismatch makes the futures price strong, but attention should be paid to the pressure caused by concentrated grain sales [9]. 2.5 Sugar Industry The ICE raw sugar futures are rising. Although the sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region is expected to increase in the first half of November, the early end of the harvest and lower ethanol inventory support the price. The domestic sugar market is expected to maintain a weak bottom - oscillating pattern [13][14]. 2.6 Cotton Industry The ICE cotton futures are rising due to the US Department of Agriculture's export sales report and a weaker dollar. Domestically, the high production of Xinjiang cotton in the 2025/26 season brings hedging pressure, but the strong basis and downstream demand support the price. The cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [15]. 2.7 Egg Industry The current egg price is below the feed cost line, and the inventory in production and circulation links has decreased. It is expected that the egg price will have limited downward space and will oscillate at a low level, with attention paid to the support at the previous low [18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean oil**: On November 25, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8510 yuan/ton (up 0.24% from the previous day), the futures price of Y2601 was 8144 yuan/ton (down 0.29% from the previous day), and the basis was 13.66%. The inventory of soybean oil in factories increased by 30,000 tons last weekend [1]. - **Palm oil**: On November 25, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8370 yuan/ton (down 0.71% from the previous day), the futures price of P2601 was 8360 yuan/ton (down 1.48% from the previous day). The盘面 import cost in Guangzhou Port in January was 8932.4 yuan/ton (down 1.08% from the previous day), and the盘面 import profit was - 543 yuan/ton (down 5.32% from the previous day) [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: On November 25, the spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10190 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), the futures price of OI601 was 9818 yuan/ton (up 0.41% from the previous day), and the basis was - 9.71% [1]. 3.2 Pig Industry - **Futures indicators**: The main contract price of live pigs was 11995 yuan/ton (up 0.59% from the previous day), the 1 - 5 spread was - 580 yuan/ton (down 10.48% from the previous day), and the main contract position decreased by 4.44% [4]. - **Spot prices**: The spot prices in different regions showed a downward trend, with the price in Henan dropping by 150 - 180 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spot indicators**: The sample - point slaughter volume increased by 0.04%, the white - strip price decreased by 100%, the self - breeding profit decreased by 18.37%, and the外购 breeding profit decreased by 14.10% [4]. 3.3 Meal Industry - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3000 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), the futures price of M2601 was 3013 yuan/ton (up 0.07% from the previous day), and the basis was - 18.18%. The盘面 import profit for Brazilian February shipments increased by 333.3% [6]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2460 yuan/ton (up 0.82% from the previous day), the futures price of RM2601 was 2431 yuan/ton (down 0.61% from the previous day), and the basis was 583.33%. The盘面 import profit for Canadian January shipments increased by 9.54% [6]. - **Soybean**: The spot price in Harbin was 3940 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), the futures price of the main soybean contract was 4108 yuan/ton (down 1.01% from the previous day), and the basis was 20% [6]. 3.4 Corn Industry - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2601 was 2242 yuan/ton (up 0.99% from the previous day), the basis was - 6.67%, the 1 - 5 spread was 52.27%, the import profit increased by 8.49%, and the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong's deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased by 7.46% [9]. - **Corn starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2601 was 2556 yuan/ton (up 0.83% from the previous day), the basis decreased by 84%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 3.13%, and the starch - corn 01盘面 spread decreased by 0.32%. The profit of Shandong's starch enterprises increased by 1000% [9]. 3.5 Sugar Industry - **Futures market**: The sugar 2601 futures price was 5387 yuan/ton (up 0.32% from the previous day), the 1 - 5 spread increased by 21.57%, and the main contract position decreased by 2.73% [13]. - **Spot market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming were unchanged. The import price of Brazilian sugar (in - quota) increased by 0.59%, and the import price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota) increased by 0.62% [13]. - **Industry situation**: The national sugar production increased by 12.03%, the sales increased by 9.17%, the national industrial inventory decreased by 41.20%, and the sugar import increased by 37.50% [13]. 3.6 Cotton Industry - **Futures market**: The cotton 2605 futures price was 13580 yuan/ton (up 0.37% from the previous day), the cotton 2601 futures price was 13645 yuan/ton (up 0.44% from the previous day), the 5 - 1 spread decreased by 18.18%, and the main contract position increased by 0.09% [15]. - **Spot market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton increased by 0.17%, the CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.26%, and the FC Index: M: 1% increased by 0.18% [15]. - **Industry situation**: The industrial inventory increased by 24.2%, the import volume decreased by 10%, the textile industry's inventory decreased by 25%, and the cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6% [15]. 3.7 Egg Industry - **Futures indicators**: The egg 12 - contract price was 2950 yuan/500KG (down 1.42% from the previous day), the egg 01 - contract price was 3210 yuan/500KG (down 0.25% from the previous day), and the 12 - 01 spread decreased by 13.08% [18]. - **Spot indicators**: The egg - producing area price increased by 1.11%, the egg - chick price decreased by 3.57%, the culled - hen price decreased by 3.96%, and the egg - feed ratio decreased by 3.33%. The breeding profit decreased by 18.60% [18]. - **Inventory situation**: The production - link inventory decreased by 8.62%, and the circulation - link inventory decreased by 2.22% [18].

Report Overview - Report Date: November 26, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a volatile upward trend. The latest price index of Grade 328 cotton was 14,832 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The quoted price of machine-picked cotton in Northern Xinjiang was around 14,600 - 14,800 yuan/ton on a legal weight basis, with a few low prices at 14,500 - 14,600 yuan/ton. The basis of the same quality of spot goods was between CF01 + 1000 - 1350, and a few low prices were within 1000. The mainstream basis of machine-picked cotton of Grade 41 in Northern Xinjiang was above CF01 + 900 [7]. - The trading volume in the pure cotton yarn market decreased, with fewer new orders. Downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. High-count yarn maintained a good sales trend, and the price remained stable. The prices of other varieties of yarn decreased slightly, with some manufacturers reducing prices by 100 - 200 yuan/ton. The market for all-cotton garment greige fabrics remained sluggish, and the inventory level was still rising. The conventional varieties faced intense homogeneous competition due to poor demand, and the demand for some differentiated varieties was also scarce. In the export market, there was a significant shortage of terminal orders, and the competition among greige fabric mills for orders was fierce [7]. - Overseas, as of the week ending November 21, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton and Pima cotton was 1.5066 million tons, accounting for 49.1% of the estimated annual U.S. cotton production, 15% slower than the same period last year. In the domestic market, the purchase of cottonseed in Xinjiang was almost completed, and the daily inspection volume was at a peak. The market's expectation of Xinjiang's cotton production in the 2025/26 season increased with the progress of the purchase. The downstream market remained weak. Last week, the finished product inventory of spinning mills increased slightly, and the operating rate decreased slightly. In some local areas, the sales of some products were relatively good, and the pressure on the finished product inventory of downstream enterprises was not high. Spinning mills made rigid purchases of raw materials. Recently, after the cancellation of warehouse receipts from the 2024/25 season, there were few warehouse receipts from the 2025/26 season. In the short term, supported by cost, it was advisable to try to go long at low prices and pay attention to the performance of the upper pressure level [8]. Operation Suggestions - In the short term, supported by cost, try to go long at low prices and pay attention to the performance of the upper pressure level [8] 2. Industry News - As of November 23, 2025, a total of 1,044 cotton processing enterprises across the country processed cotton and conducted notarized inspections in accordance with the reform plan of the cotton quality inspection system. The cumulative inspection volume was 16,370,365 bales, totaling 3.6958 million tons, an increase of 92,000 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 16,221,448 bales, totaling 3.6625 million tons, an increase of 91,400 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in inland areas was 77,487 bales, totaling 17,100 tons [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts related to the cotton market, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, total warehouse receipts, USD/CNY exchange rate, and USD/INR exchange rate. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [18][19][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas: On November 21st, the New York Fed President's speech hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, significantly boosting the December rate - cut expectation. The Fed's expectation management is turning, and it's advisable to follow key Fed voting members' speeches and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [6]. - Domestic: Domestic endogenous momentum remains weak and stable. The issuance of 500 billion yuan of policy - based financial instruments in October, the accelerated issuance of special bonds in November, and the release of debt - resolution surplus quotas may bring marginal benefits to Q4 infrastructure investment. The loan prime rate has been stable since May's 10 - basis - point cut. New and second - hand housing sales and land supply have rebounded, but land transactions remain low, and real - estate physical work demand and capacity have declined [6]. - Asset Views: Due to differences among Fed policymakers on a December rate cut, the Fed's October meeting minutes being hawkish, and strong September non - farm payrolls data, the December rate - cut expectation was initially suppressed, and the US dollar index rose. After the New York Fed President's dovish speech, the market risk appetite may improve in the short term. It is recommended to consider bottom - fishing opportunities in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and precious metals [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The New York Fed President's speech on November 21st hinted at a near - term rate cut, boosting the December rate - cut expectation. The Fed's expectation management is shifting, and key figures may turn dovish in the next two weeks [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: Endogenous momentum is weak. Policy - based financial instruments, special bond issuance, and debt - resolution surplus quotas may benefit Q4 infrastructure. The loan prime rate has been stable. Housing sales and land supply have rebounded, but real - estate physical work has declined [6]. - **Asset Views**: Due to Fed policy uncertainties, asset prices were initially pressured. After the dovish speech, market risk appetite may improve. It is recommended to consider bottom - fishing in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The decline of the Shanghai Composite Index has slowed, and hedging forces are taking profits. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: Market sentiment has improved, and it is expected to fluctuate, with attention on option market liquidity [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed higher. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on the implementation of monetary policies [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Geopolitical and trade tensions have eased, leading to a phased adjustment. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on the US fundamentals, Fed policies, and global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in Q3 has ended, and there is no upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on the rate of freight decline in September [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The fundamentals are improving, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with attention on special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production has slightly weakened, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with attention on overseas mine production, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policies [7]. - **Coke**: Supply and demand have slightly declined, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with attention on steel production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Near - month delivery is under pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with attention on steel production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: The market has weakened with the sector, but cost support remains. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price has declined with the sector, but cost support is strong. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Spot losses are increasing, and cold - repair expectations are rising. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Coal prices have fallen, weakening cost support. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on soda ash inventory [7]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Due to differences within the Fed, copper prices are consolidating at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed policies, and domestic demand [7]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation persists, and prices are under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on ore production and electrolytic aluminum复产 [7]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory is decreasing, and prices are fluctuating narrowly. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and prices are fluctuating at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on macro risks and zinc - ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: Social inventory has decreased, and prices are fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on supply disruptions and battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: Supply and demand are loose, and prices are expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on macro, geopolitical, and Indonesian policy risks [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices are weak, and stainless - steel prices are under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on Indonesian policies and demand [7]. - **Tin**: Raw - material supply is tight, and prices are strongly supported. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on Wa State's复产 and demand [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The oversupply pressure remains, and prices are expected to fluctuate, with attention on supply - side复产 and policies [7]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy expectations are volatile, and prices are fluctuating at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on supply - side复产 and domestic photovoltaic policies [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Trading sentiment has cooled, and prices are fluctuating at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical premiums are volatile, and supply pressure continues. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitics [9]. - **LPG**: Refinery output has decreased, and import costs are under pressure. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on cost - side developments [9]. - **Asphalt**: The rise of rebar prices has driven up asphalt futures. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on sanctions and supply disruptions [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The expectation of a Russia - Ukraine agreement has weakened fuel prices. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on geopolitics and crude - oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has followed the weak crude - oil market. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on crude - oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: Overseas disturbances are confirmed, and it is expected to be strong in the short term. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on macro - energy and overseas production stoppages [9]. - **Urea**: Centralized procurement has slowed, and prices are fluctuating narrowly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on export quotas and Indian tenders [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand situation has improved, and some short - sellers have closed positions. It is expected to rise while fluctuating, with attention on coal and oil prices, port inventory, and Sino - US trade [9]. - **PX**: Market sentiment has cooled, and prices are adjusting. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on crude - oil fluctuations, macro events, and aromatics blending [9]. - **PTA**: Fundamentals have improved marginally, and profits are being repaired. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on crude - oil fluctuations and macro events [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream demand is stable, and it follows the upstream market. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on downstream purchasing and peak - season demand [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: Cost support has increased, and prices have rebounded slightly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on production cuts and new - plant commissioning [9]. - **Propylene**: The spot market is strong, and prices are fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on oil prices and the domestic macro - economy [9]. - **PP**: Fundamental pressure is priced in, and attention should be paid to maintenance. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on oil prices and the macro - economy [9]. - **Plastic**: Maintenance has increased slightly, and prices are fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on oil prices and the macro - economy [9]. - **Styrene**: The narrative of blending for gasoline has faded, and prices are mainly fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on oil prices, macro policies, and plant operations [9]. - **PVC**: High inventory is suppressing prices, and it may be tied to production cuts. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: Low - valuation and weak supply - demand conditions lead to price fluctuations. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on market sentiment, production, and demand [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Prices are diverging, with palm oil being weak. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm - oil supply - demand [9]. - **Protein Meal**: Rapeseed - meal prices have risen, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread is expected to narrow. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on weather, domestic demand, and trade relations [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: Bullish drivers continue, and prices have risen again. It is expected to rise while fluctuating, with attention on demand, the macro - economy, and weather [9]. - **Hogs**: Supply is abundant, and prices are weak. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: Floods in production areas have boosted bullish sentiment, but the upside is limited. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on weather, raw - material prices, and the macro - economy [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Raw - material transactions support prices. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on crude - oil fluctuations [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices have rebounded, and the 1 - 5 spread has widened. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on demand and inventory [9]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices have continued to rebound. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on imports and Brazilian production [9]. - **Pulp**: The balance of long and short factors remains, and prices are mainly fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on the macro - economy and US dollar - based quotes [9]. - **Offset Paper**: It is following the raw - material market and fluctuating at low levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [9]. - **Logs**: Supply and demand are loose, and prices are fluctuating at low levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on shipments and dispatches [9].

Group 1 - The State Council will hold a press conference on November 27 to discuss policies aimed at enhancing the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, and promoting consumption [1] - From January to October, China's total foreign direct investment reached $144.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, while new contracts for foreign engineering projects amounted to $210.7 billion, up 18.6% year-on-year [1] - A-share buyback amounts have exceeded 130 billion yuan this year, marking the second-highest level in history, with over 100 companies doubling their stock prices after implementing buybacks [1] Group 2 - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the communication and media sectors leading the gains, while defense and transportation sectors lagged [2] - The financing balance decreased by 2.88 billion yuan to 2.4423 trillion yuan on November 24, indicating cautious market sentiment as the year-end approaches [2] - The "Fifteen Five" plan continues to focus on technological self-reliance, suggesting that the technology sector remains a long-term investment direction [2] Group 3 - Palm oil inventories continue to accumulate, with a 16.4% month-on-month decrease in Malaysian palm oil exports expected for November 1-25 [3] - The domestic supply of rapeseed oil is under pressure due to increased raw material supply, leading to price declines [3] - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate as supply pressures emerge from overseas production, while domestic production transitions to the off-season [3] Group 4 - The National Space Administration has issued a plan to promote the high-quality and safe development of commercial aerospace from 2025 to 2027, establishing a national commercial aerospace development fund [8]

Group 1: Market Information - Futures contracts: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, CF09, CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts are 13585, 13530, 13665, 20075, 19860, and 20020 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 125, 85, 55, 350, 180, and -55. The trading volumes and open interests also show various changes [2]. - Spot prices: CCIndex3128B is 14793 yuan/ton with a change of 2, Cot A is 74.00 cents/pound, and other spot prices like those of polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, etc., also have their respective values and changes [2]. - Price spreads: Cotton and棉纱跨期 spreads, as well as跨品种 and内外 spreads, are presented with their corresponding values and price changes [2]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - Purchase prices: From November 17 - 23, the average purchase price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was 6.05 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous week and 0.18 yuan/kg year - on - year; hand - picked cotton was 6.69 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous week and 0.07 yuan/kg year - on - year. The average purchase price of inland seed cotton was relatively stable at 6.75 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week. As of November 23, 1044 cotton processing enterprises had conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 369.5 million tons [4]. - US cotton harvest: As of November 23, the cotton harvest rate in 15 major cotton - growing states in the US was 79%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average. The harvest in Texas and other major producing areas is progressing orderly, and the low - temperature and less - rainy weather is beneficial for the harvest and improves the processing and inspection quality [4]. - Price quotes: The 2025/26 north and south Xinjiang machine - picked 3130/30B/with impurity within 3 has a one - price quote of 14600 - 14800, and the same - quality point - price basis is mostly above CF01 + 1100, with a small amount in the 1050 - 1100 range for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. Some 2025/26 north Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/28B/with impurity within 2.5 had a transaction basis of CF01 + 950 - 1000 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [5]. Trading Logic - Fundamental analysis: In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling and hedging pressure. Although this year's cotton production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. On the demand side, after the peak season, the market enters a relatively off - season. Overall, with new cotton flooding the market and a large increase in production but a potentially smaller - than - expected increase, and with average recent orders but previous negative factors already reflected in the market, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate within a limited range [6]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: The future trend of US cotton is likely to be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate [7]. - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. - Options: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [7][9]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Market conditions: Yesterday, Zhengzhou cotton strengthened significantly, and cotton yarn futures followed with a larger increase, boosting the atmosphere. However, the trading in the pure - cotton yarn market has weakened, with fewer new orders and mainly downstream rigid - demand purchases. High - count yarns have maintained good sales, with stable prices, while other yarn varieties have seen stable - to - decreasing prices, with some manufacturers reducing prices by 100 - 200 yuan/ton. The overall situation of traceability orders has changed little, but due to the deterioration of Sino - Japanese relations, the confidence of exporters to Japan has declined, and they are more cautious. The future trend of Zhengzhou cotton, downstream replenishment in mid - to - late December, and the international situation need to be monitored [9]. - Fabric market: The all - cotton clothing grey fabric market remains sluggish, with inventory levels still rising. Conventional varieties face fierce homogeneous competition due to poor demand, and some differentiated varieties also have low demand. In the export market, there is a significant shortage of terminal orders, and competition among grey fabric mills is intense. It is expected that this week will continue the sluggish situation of last week, and the inventory of weaving mills will continue to increase [9]. Group 3: Options - Option data: The closing prices, price changes, implied volatilities, and other parameters of options such as CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC are presented. The 10 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 are 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively [11]. - Option strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [13]. Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures: The report includes figures such as the 1% tariff - based domestic and international cotton price spread, cotton January basis, cotton May basis, cotton September basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [15][18][22][23].

研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 11 月 25 日 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 近期纺企依旧交付前期订单为主，新增订单较少；中小型纺企按需生产，库 存压力不大，走货尚可；部分大型纺企产销比有所下降，库存稍累，开机有一定 下调。溯源单近期纯澳棉等高品质纱走货尚可，部分厂商有抢 ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the Brent 01 contract rising 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. Supply and demand face greater inventory accumulation expectations in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains. Focus on the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the Venezuelan geopolitical risk [1] Precious Metals - Overnight precious metals rose. As several Fed officials advocated a December rate cut, the implied rate cut probability in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels waiting for a directional breakthrough [2] Copper - Overnight copper prices oscillated. LME copper rose with precious metals at the end of the session. The domestic spot market has a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3] Aluminum - Overnight SHFE aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and bars decreased by 0.8 million tons on Monday. The aluminum price may continue to adjust, with support around 21,100 yuan [4] Alumina - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It will operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 20,700 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and it will continue to follow the aluminum price, with the possibility of a narrowing spread with AL [6] Zinc - Domestic and overseas mine TC continued to decline. SHFE zinc oscillated in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The external demand supports zinc consumption, but the domestic demand is expected to weaken [7] Lead - SHFE lead oscillated in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton. The export of lead-acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel rebounded, and stainless steel inventory decreased. However, the short-term contradiction lies in the macro level, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [9] Tin - LME tin closed higher, and SHFE tin oscillated at high levels. It is still advisable to short, and at the same time, match with out-of-the-money call options to hedge risks [10] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate opened low and moved lower. The market is highly divergent, and risk control should be prioritized [11] Polysilicon - The fundamentals of polysilicon are weak. The futures price will maintain an oscillating pattern [12] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. It will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [13] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures oscillated strongly overnight. The fundamentals are marginally looser, and the price is expected to oscillate [15] Coke - The coke price oscillated. It may oscillate weakly [16] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated weakly. It may oscillate weakly [17] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon price oscillated. The bottom support is expected to move down [18] Silicon Ferrosilicon - The silicon ferrosilicon price oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19] Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Both high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21] Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22] Group 2: Chemicals Urea - Urea supply remains sufficient. The market may return to a stalemate [23] Methanol - The methanol futures rose sharply. It is advisable to try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices [24] Pure Benzene - It is advisable to continue the idea of shorting on rebounds and consider option allocation [25] Styrene - The supply and demand of styrene are in a tight balance, but the support from the cost and demand sides is questionable [26] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The market lacks guidance. Polyethylene supply pressure increases, and polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly [27] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may follow the cost. Caustic soda will operate weakly [28] PX and PTA - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production. PTA is driven by cost [29] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price has a short-term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30] Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials. Bottle chip is cost-driven [31] Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Niña on South American soybean production [35] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil will oscillate in the short term. Palm oil is weaker [36] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market focuses on Australian seeds. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [37] Domestic Soybeans - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38] Corn - The corn futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39] Live Hogs - The far-month hog futures rose, and the near-month is weak. The price may form a double bottom [40] Eggs - The number of newly laid hens is expected to decrease in December. Pay attention to the spot price [41] Cotton - The cotton futures may oscillate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see [42] Sugar - The international sugar supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the production in India, Thailand, and Guangxi [43] Apples - The apple futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory removal [44] Wood - The wood futures oscillated. It is advisable to wait and see [45] Pulp - The pulp futures fell slightly. It is advisable to wait and see [46] Group 4: Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - A-shares rose in a shrinking volume. The short-term macro liquidity is uncertain. It is advisable to wait and see [47] Treasury Bond Futures - The treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly [48] Group 5: Shipping Container Freight Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European route index rose sharply. The 02 contract may maintain a discount [20]

Core Viewpoint - The cotton futures prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) have shown a slight increase, indicating a stable market environment for cotton trading [1][2]. Group 1: Cotton Futures Market Overview - On November 24, ICE cotton futures opened at 63.95 cents per pound and are currently at 64.15 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.34% increase [1]. - The intraday trading range for cotton futures reached a high of 64.24 cents per pound and a low of 63.95 cents per pound [1]. Group 2: Historical Price Data - On November 21, ICE cotton futures had an opening price of 63.76 cents per pound, a closing price of 63.77 cents per pound, with a maximum price of 63.94 cents and a minimum of 63.11 cents, resulting in a slight decrease of 0.06% [2]. - As of November 20, the inventory of deliverable 2nd grade cotton contracts on ICE remained unchanged at 20,344 bales [2]. Group 3: Domestic Market Conditions - On November 21, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange reported 3,465 cotton futures warehouse receipts, a decrease of 1,185 receipts compared to the previous trading day [2]. - The average price of 3128 grade cotton delivered nationwide was stable at 14,639 yuan per ton, while the price for 32s pure cotton yarn was also stable at 21,396 yuan per ton [2]. - Spinning profit remained unchanged at -706.9 yuan per ton, indicating no significant changes in the profitability of spinning enterprises [2].