交产业期现目报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2026年1月5日 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 1月4日 | 12月31日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF): F海 | 15250 | 15250 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差 | 15250 | -355 | 15605 | 4395.77% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14700 | 14700 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 非标价差 | 14700 | -905 | 15605 | 1724.31% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 51.00 | 50.85 | 0.15 | 0.29% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 54.20 | 54.70 | -0.50 | -0.91% | | | 原料:市场主流价:海南 | 13100 | 13000 | 100 | 0.77% | 元/吨 | | 月间价差 | | | | | ...

化工月报 | 2026-01-04 原料坚挺，橡胶成本支撑仍存 市场要闻与重要数据 原料与价差：泰国胶水54.20泰铢/公斤（+0.00），泰国杯胶51.10泰铢/公斤（+0.00），云南胶水14200元/吨（-100）， 海南胶水13900元/吨（+0），RU基差-355元/吨（+65），NR基差458元/吨（+35），BR基差-120元/吨（+45）。 现货方面：云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15250元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14700元/吨，较前一 日变动+0元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1870美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1805 美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11500元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 供应方面：天然橡胶青岛港口入库率7.58%（+1.94%），其中一般贸易入库率8.42%（+2.89%），保税库入库率3.17% （-3.05%）；高顺顺丁开工率76.92%（+0.66%）。中国天然橡胶月度产量137200吨（+23700），中国顺丁橡胶月度产 量143620吨（+13500）。 生产利润方面： ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 天然橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2026年1月4日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 期货价格 基差与月差 其他价差 替代品价格 资金动向 供给 需求 库存 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【越南前11个月天胶、混合胶合计出口量同比降5.6%】最新数据显示，2025年前11个月，越南出口天然橡胶累计64.3万吨，较去年的71.9万吨同比下降 11%。其中，标胶出口30.4万吨，同比降21%，包括SVR10出口10.1万吨，SVR3L出口10.8万吨，SVRCV60出口6.2万吨；烟片胶出口6.1万吨，同比降9%；乳胶 出口27.6万吨，同比则增2.2%。1-11月，越南出口混合橡胶累计99.9万吨，较去年的102万吨同比下降2%。其中，SVR3L混合 ...

近日，生态环境部、国家疾控局联合印发《优先控制化学品名录(第三批)》，收录1,1,2,2-四氯乙烷、双 酚A等了23种类化学物质。 生态环境部固体废物与化学品司有关负责人表示，相关企业应充分认识《名录》中化学物质存在的潜在 环境与健康风险，主动采取工艺升级改造、强化"三废"处理等措施，加强环境排放控制，积极研发和推 广应用环境友好替代品，最大限度降低相关化学物质的环境风险。 优先控制化学品名录(第三批) | 编号 | 化学品名称 | CAS号 | | --- | --- | --- | | PC041 | 1,1,2,2-四氯乙烷 | 79-34-5 | | PC042 | 1,2-二氯乙烷 | 107-06-2 | | PC043 | 1,4-二氯苯 | 106-46-7 | | PC044 | 2.6-二(1.1-二甲基乙基)-4-(1-甲基丙基)苯酚 | 17540-75-9 | | PC045 | 3.4.5.6-四溴-1.2-苯二羧酸双(2-乙基己基)酯 | 26040-51-7 | | PC046 | 4-(2-苯并噻唑硫基)吗啉(别名:N-氧联二(1,2-亚乙基)-2-苯并噻唑 次磺酰胺;橡胶硫 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - This week, the domestic natural rubber futures market declined while the overseas market rose. Due to the improvement in weather in overseas main - producing areas after the holiday, the increase in supply will put pressure on raw material prices, and the cost support may weaken. Although the spot inventory of natural rubber continues to accumulate and some downstream enterprises plan to have short - term maintenance during the "New Year's Day" holiday, after the holiday, funds will return to the market. Affected by the external market during the holiday, with limited self - contradiction driving, it is expected that the natural rubber price will follow the overall trend of the energy and chemical sector and fluctuate slightly stronger [9][102]. - Valuation: The spread between the main contracts of RU and NR remained stable at 2980 yuan/ton, and the spread between mixed standard rubber and the main contract of RU decreased by 65 yuan/ton. Investment strategies include waiting and seeing for RU in the unilateral aspect, waiting for opportunities to short at high prices; observing in the inter - period and cross - variety aspects [103]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - In the first 11 months of 2025, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 5.6% year - on - year, and the total exports to China decreased by 0.6% year - on - year [5]. - On December 31, the Ministry of Commerce and other departments issued the implementation rules for the 2026 automobile trade - in subsidy, expanding the scope of support compared with 2025 [6]. - In the first 11 months of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 4.6% year - on - year, and the total exports to China increased by 24% year - on - year [7]. Market Trends - This week, the domestic rubber futures market declined, while the overseas market rose. For example, the closing price of RU2605 decreased by 1.11% compared with the previous period, and the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2605 increased by 0.17% [9][11]. Price Basis and Calendar Spread - The basis of whole milk - RU05 increased by 26.04% compared with the previous period, and the 05 - 09 calendar spread increased by 100.00% compared with the previous period [12]. Other Spreads - Spreads such as RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SICOM TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 decreased [16]. - This week, most rubber spot prices declined, and futures prices declined more, resulting in a stronger basis [20]. - The spread between whole milk and Thai mixed rubber and the spread between 3L and Thai mixed rubber widened [23]. Substitute Prices - The price of butadiene at the raw material end of butadiene rubber continued to rise, providing obvious bottom support for the short - term market price, and most spot offers maintained a firm price and tried to sell [29]. Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio and the settled funds of RU and NR both decreased. For example, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU decreased by 16.46% compared with the previous period, and the settled funds decreased by 11.80% [32][34]. Fundamental Data Supply - Weather in Thai producing areas: The rainy season in southern Thailand is gradually coming to an end with decreasing rainfall, and the rainy season in northeastern Thailand has passed, but the rainfall is higher than the same period [37]. - Weather in domestic producing areas: The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan producing areas have basically ended [39]. - Raw material prices: Due to the easing of overseas geopolitical tensions, raw material prices declined. For example, the price of cup lump in the Hat Yai market in Songkhla Province, Thailand, decreased by 2.54% compared with the previous period [41][43]. - Raw material spreads: The spread between water and cup in Thailand widened, the spread between Hainan glue going into the concentrated latex factory and going into the whole milk factory was stable, and Yunnan has basically stopped tapping [45]. - Upstream processing profit: As raw material prices declined, the rubber processing profit in Thailand generally improved. For example, the production profit of Thai standard rubber increased by 18.53% compared with the previous period [48][50]. - Delivery profit: The delivery profit in Hainan decreased, and Yunnan has basically stopped tapping, so the data update was suspended [53]. - Thai exports: In November, Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month, with a slight increase in latex exports and a decrease in the exports of smoked sheets, standard rubber, and mixed rubber [60]. - Thai exports to China: In November, the quantity of Thailand's natural rubber exports to China decreased month - on - month, with an increase in the exports of latex, smoked sheets, and standard rubber and a decrease in mixed rubber [63]. - Indonesian exports: In October, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month due to a large decrease in standard rubber exports, while the exports of mixed rubber continued to increase month - on - month. The total exports to China also decreased month - on - month [66]. - Vietnamese exports: In October, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, with a large increase in latex exports. The exports to China increased seasonally, with large increases in standard rubber and latex exports [72]. - Ivorian exports: In November, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports decreased month - on - month, and the quantity of exports to China decreased significantly month - on - month [74]. - Rubber imports: In November, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and composite rubber) were 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.76%. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Thai standard rubber, and Ivorian standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Vietnamese standard rubber and mixed rubber decreased year - on - year [78]. Demand - Tire capacity utilization and inventory: Some enterprises have short - term maintenance plans during the "New Year's Day" holiday, mostly for 3 - 5 days, and most enterprises maintain normal production. Tire inventory continued to accumulate last week (the current data has not been updated) [81]. - Tire exports and heavy - truck sales: In November, heavy - truck sales increased month - on - month with a higher growth rate, passenger car sales continued to grow but the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates continued to decline, and tire exports recovered slightly month - on - month [84]. - Road transport turnover: In November, the road freight turnover increased month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased month - on - month [88]. Inventory - Spot inventory: The current natural rubber inventory in China continued to accumulate seasonally. Qingdao's inventory increased, and the increase rate of the increase in light - colored rubber inventory compared with the previous period weakened [94][96]. - Futures inventory: The natural rubber futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the 20 - rubber futures inventory in the Shanghai International Energy Exchange both increased to some extent. For example, the natural rubber futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 7.09% compared with the previous week [99].

Group 1 - The Malaysian Rubber Board (MRB) has initiated a rubber production subsidy (IPG) for smallholders in Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah, and Sarawak, effective until December 2025 [1][2] - The average farm delivery prices for cup rubber (50% dry rubber content) in December were RM2.95 per kg for Peninsular Malaysia, RM2.65 per kg for Sabah, and RM2.60 per kg for Sarawak [1] - The subsidies for cup rubber are set at RM0.05 per kg (50% dry rubber content) and RM0.10 per kg (100% dry rubber content) for Peninsular Malaysia, RM0.35 per kg and RM0.70 per kg for Sabah, and RM0.40 per kg and RM0.80 per kg for Sarawak [1] Group 2 - For latex (100% dry rubber content), the subsidy will be activated when cup rubber is activated, with a subsidy of RM0.90 per kg [2] - Smallholders in Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah, and Sarawak can submit IPG claims based on their production from December 2025 between January 1 and January 31, 2026 [2] - The IPG will be activated starting January 2024 if the average monthly delivery price for cup rubber falls to RM3.00 per kg or below [3]

Core Viewpoint - Chengdu is actively promoting the elimination of outdated production capacity, with a target of completing the exit of 72 enterprises by 2025, covering various industries and regions [1][2] Group 1: Elimination of Outdated Capacity - By 2025, Chengdu will complete the elimination of outdated production capacity from 72 enterprises across nine districts and counties, including Jin Niu District, Pi Du District, and Da Yi County [1] - The industries affected include machinery manufacturing, casting, furniture, automotive parts, rubber, building materials, paper, biopharmaceuticals, and food and beverage [1] - The methods of exit include the elimination of process equipment and the closure of facilities [1] Group 2: Industrial Structure Adjustment - Chengdu is accelerating industrial structure adjustment by fostering advanced production capacity while eliminating outdated capacity [1] - The city aims to build a modern industrial system, consolidating its advantageous industries and nurturing emerging sectors [1] - Efforts are being made to enhance energy efficiency in key industries and encourage the upgrade of inefficient energy-consuming equipment [1] Group 3: Achievements During the 14th Five-Year Plan - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, Chengdu has successfully facilitated the orderly exit of 163 enterprises with outdated capacity and cleaned up 16,000 "scattered, chaotic, and polluting" industrial enterprises [2] - These actions have significantly contributed to the improvement of the ecological environment and provided necessary resources and environmental capacity for the construction of a new industrialization system [2] - From January to November last year, the industrial added value of Chengdu's large-scale industries grew by 7.2% year-on-year, while the energy consumption per unit of industrial added value decreased by 7.2% during the same period [2]

Group 1 - The implementation of the "Zhenjiang Enterprise Technology Tackling (Ranking and Leading) Guidance Fund Implementation Measures" three years ago has significantly advanced technological innovation in the city, resulting in the successful resolution of 107 critical technological challenges by the end of 2025 [1] - The "Ranking and Leading" mechanism has directly addressed 16 of these challenges, encouraging enterprises to invest in R&D and solve 91 key technological bottlenecks independently, demonstrating the leverage effect of the guidance fund [1] - A partnership with the Jiangsu Provincial Industrial Technology Research Institute was established in 2022 to create a guidance fund aimed at addressing technological pain points through the "Ranking and Leading" model, resulting in the collection of 167 major technology demand items over three years [1] Group 2 - The breakthrough of "bottleneck" technologies has a cascading effect, as seen with Danyang Huichuang Medical Equipment Co., which achieved a significant advancement in dynamic brain imaging, leading to the establishment of a clinical research center for cognitive disorders [2] - Over three years, 107 projects have been initiated to tackle technological bottlenecks across key sectors such as high-end equipment manufacturing, new materials, biomedicine, and new-generation information technology, driven by the guidance fund [2] - The core of the "Ranking and Leading" mechanism is market demand-oriented, focusing on problem-solving as a measure of success, with plans to optimize this mechanism further to enhance collaboration in finance and talent, facilitating the transition from technology demand to joint tackling and result transformation [2]

转自：北京日报客户端 生态环境部固体废物与化学品司有关负责人就《优先控制化学品名录（第三批）》答记者问 近日，生态环境部、国家疾控局联合印发《优先控制化学品名录（第三批）》（以下简称《名录》）。 针对《名录》制定有关情况，生态环境部固体废物与化学品司有关负责人回答了记者的提问。 问：《名录》出台的背景是什么？ 答：党中央高度重视新污染物治理工作。党的二十大明确要求开展新污染物治理，党的二十届三中全会 将建立新污染物协同治理和环境风险管控体系作为深化生态文明体制改革的重要任务进行部署，党的二 十届四中全会进一步提出要深入推进新污染物治理。近期召开的中央经济工作会议将强化新污染物治理 纳入推动全面绿色转型的年度重点工作任务。《中共中央 国务院关于全面推进美丽中国建设的意见》 明确了到2035年新污染物环境风险得到有效管控的任务目标。 动态制定优先控制化学品名录，推动实施环境风险管控，是推进落实《新污染物治理行动方案》（国办 发〔2022〕15号）的具体行动，是贯彻党中央关于深入推进新污染物治理的有关要求，落实全面推进美 丽中国建设相关工作部署，保护生态环境安全和人民健康安全，以生态环境高水平保护支撑高质量发展 的 ...

问：《名录》出台的背景是什么？ 央视网消息：近日，生态环境部、国家疾控局联合印发《优先控制化学品名录（第三批）》（以下 简称《名录》）。针对《名录》制定有关情况，生态环境部固体废物与化学品司有关负责人回答了记者 的提问。 答：党中央高度重视新污染物治理工作。党的二十大明确要求开展新污染物治理，党的二十届三中 全会将建立新污染物协同治理和环境风险管控体系作为深化生态文明体制改革的重要任务进行部署，党 的二十届四中全会进一步提出要深入推进新污染物治理。近期召开的中央经济工作会议将强化新污染物 治理纳入推动全面绿色转型的年度重点工作任务。《中共中央 国务院关于全面推进美丽中国建设的意 见》明确了到2035年新污染物环境风险得到有效管控的任务目标。 问：《名录》包括哪些化学物质？ 答：《名录》收录了23种类化学物质，其中包含1,1,2,2-四氯乙烷、三(2,3-二溴丙基)磷酸酯等致癌 物，双酚A、邻苯二甲酸二(2-乙基己基)酯等内分泌干扰物，长链全氟羧酸及其盐类和其相关化合物等 全氟和多氟烷基物质类持久性有机污染物等，涉及石化、塑料、橡胶、制药、纺织、染料、涂料、农 药、皮革、电镀等行业或领域。其中，个别社会关注度高 ...