1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is under pressure, with major stock indexes generally falling, and the market may experience an oversold rebound due to shrinking trading volume [19][20]. - The bond market shows a differentiated performance under the influence of various news, and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [23]. - In the agricultural products market, most varieties face supply - demand pressures and price fluctuations, such as protein meal under pressure and sugar prices showing a range - bound pattern [27][31]. - The black metal market has steel prices in a range - bound pattern, with potential for iron water reduction, and double - coking and iron ore prices showing weakness [54][57][60]. - The non - ferrous metal market has precious metals, copper, and other varieties in a state of shock, with different influencing factors for each [65][70]. - The energy and chemical market has products such as crude oil and asphalt in a state of shock, with different supply - demand situations for each [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market is under test, with major indexes and stock index futures falling. The market may have an oversold rebound, and trading strategies include going short first and then long, conducting IM\IC futures - spot arbitrage, and using a double - buy option strategy [19][20][21]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed with mixed results. The bond market is affected by multiple factors and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. Trading strategies suggest waiting and trying to go long on the T - contract quarterly - next - quarter inter - period spread [22][23][24]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Protein Meal - The international soybean market has a clear pattern of abundant production, and domestic bean meal has a large supply pressure. Strategies include short - selling far - month contracts of rapeseed meal and using a short - straddle option strategy [26][27]. 3.2.2 Sugar - International sugar prices are in a state of shock, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be range - bound. Strategies include going long on domestic sugar at low prices and selling put options at low levels [30][31]. 3.2.3 Oilseeds and Oils - The palm oil market is in a state of shock, with limited upside potential. Soybean oil follows the overall trend, and rapeseed oil is expected to continue to reduce inventory. Strategies include short - term long - short operations [34]. 3.2.4 Corn/Corn Starch - The external market of corn is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the domestic corn market has different trends in different regions. Strategies include short - term long - short operations and narrowing the spread between 01 corn and starch [37]. 3.2.5 Livestock (Pigs) - The supply pressure of pigs still exists, and strategies include waiting and selling a wide - straddle option strategy [39]. 3.2.6 Peanuts - Peanut prices are at the bottom and fluctuating. Strategies include short - selling 01 peanuts at high prices and conducting a 15 - peanut reverse spread [42]. 3.2.7 Eggs - Egg demand is average, and prices are stable with a slight decline. Strategies suggest waiting [47]. 3.2.8 Apples - Apple production has decreased, and the effective inventory is expected to be low. However, due to large price fluctuations, strategies suggest leaving the market and waiting [48][49]. 3.2.9 Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The cotton market has few fundamental contradictions and is in a state of shock. Strategies suggest waiting [52]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Steel prices are in a range - bound pattern, and there is still room for reducing iron water. Strategies include maintaining a shock strategy and going long on the coil - screw spread [54][55]. 3.3.2 Double - Coking - The spot price of double - coking has回调, and the market is expected to be weak in the short - term. Strategies include gradually closing short positions and waiting to go long at low prices [57][58]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - Iron ore is treated with a bearish mindset. Strategies include short - term short - selling and conducting a 1/5 inter - period reverse spread [60]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys have weak supply and demand, with cost support. Strategies include bottom - bound shock operations and selling out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [61][62]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Precious Metals - Precious metals continue to fluctuate due to mixed signals from the US non - farm data. Strategies include holding long positions cautiously near the support level [65][68]. 3.4.2 Copper - Copper prices are under pressure from the strong US dollar. Strategies include trying to go long at low prices and focusing on the support level [70]. 3.4.3 Alumina - Alumina has not seen substantial production cuts, and prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. Strategies suggest waiting [74][76]. 3.4.4 Electrolytic Aluminum - The Fed's interest - rate decision is uncertain, and aluminum prices follow the sector. Strategies include short - term waiting and focusing on the spread between East China and the Central Plains [77]. 3.4.5 Cast Aluminum Alloys - Cast aluminum alloys follow the aluminum price. Strategies include short - term waiting [81]. 3.4.6 Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuate widely. Strategies include setting stop - profit points for long positions and being vigilant about macro - factors [85]. 3.4.7 Lead - Lead prices are range - bound. Strategies suggest waiting [87]. 3.4.8 Nickel - Nickel prices are in a downward trend, approaching the cost. Strategies suggest waiting for a turnaround in the inventory situation [88]. 3.4.9 Stainless Steel - Stainless steel has weak supply and demand, and prices are weak. Strategies include short - selling on rebounds and selling out - of - the - money call options [92][94]. 3.4.10 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon may have a short - term correction, and strategies include buying at low prices after a full correction [95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the crude oil market is weak, and concerns about increased supply are pressuring oil prices, which are expected to move in a volatile manner [1][3]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by relatively healthy downstream bunker fuel demand, and the LU - FU spread is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the near term [3]. - The asphalt price is currently viewed with a bearish outlook due to a decrease in both supply and demand, with the supply decline being smaller than the demand decline [3]. - The PTA price is expected to be strongly volatile due to the implementation of TA device maintenance and the resilience of downstream demand [5]. - The ethylene glycol price is expected to have a wide - range adjustment, with short - term supply improvement but medium - term inventory accumulation pressure [5]. - The rubber price is expected to move in a volatile manner due to increased supply pressure and a combination of stable domestic and weak overseas demand [7]. - The methanol price is expected to maintain a bottom - level volatile trend, with supply expected to decline if Iranian devices stop due to gas restrictions [7]. - The polyolefin price is expected to be weakly volatile at the bottom, gradually shifting to a situation of strong supply and weak demand [9]. - The PVC price is expected to show a weakly volatile performance due to high supply - demand pressure and high inventory [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices dropped significantly. The EIA inventory report showed a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventory but an increase in gasoline and distillate inventories. There are developments in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and Russia's oil production is approaching the OPEC+ quota. The market is worried about increased supply, and oil prices are volatile [1][3]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, fuel oil futures prices declined. The Chinese refinery's operating rate increased, and Singapore is expected to receive more low - sulfur fuel oil. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by demand, and the LU - FU spread is expected to remain high [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the asphalt futures price fell slightly. The December production plan decreased compared to November, and inventory and operating rates declined. The price is under pressure due to supply - demand factors [3]. - **Polyester**: TA prices rose, EG prices fell slightly, and PX prices rose. There are new device startups and overhauls, and the cancellation of the BIS certification in India is beneficial for exports. TA prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and ethylene glycol prices will have a wide - range adjustment [5]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, rubber futures prices rose. Rubber inventory increased, production increased seasonally, and overseas demand declined. The price is expected to be volatile due to supply - demand factors [7]. - **Methanol**: The spot price is stable, and downstream product prices vary. Domestic maintenance devices are resuming production, and Iranian devices may stop. The price is expected to be volatile at the bottom [7]. - **Polyolefins**: The price of polyolefins has a negative profit margin. It is gradually shifting to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile at the bottom [9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The PVC market price decreased in different regions. Supply remains high, and demand is expected to decline. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table provides data on the basis of various energy - chemical products on November 20, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [10]. 3.3 Market News - The EIA inventory report shows that US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 340 million barrels to 424.2 million barrels in the week ending November 14, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. The US strategic petroleum reserve increased by 50 million barrels to 410.9 million barrels [15]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts for various energy - chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [17][18][19]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts for different products over the years, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [35][40][41]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts for various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [48][50][54]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts present the spreads and ratios between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [65][67][70]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of LLDPE and PP [73]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Crude Oil, Gas, etc. Analyst), Di Yilin (Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst), and Peng Haibo (Methanol/Propylene, etc. Analyst), each with rich experience and achievements [78][79][80]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is in China (Shanghai) Free Trade Pilot Zone, with a phone number, fax, and customer service hotline provided [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall upward drive of the crude oil market is supported by geopolitical factors, but the medium - term suppression of supply - demand imbalance still exists, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by relatively healthy downstream bunker demand, and the LU - FU spread is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the near future [2]. - The asphalt market is expected to be bearish due to the dual decline of supply and demand, with the decline in supply being less than that in demand [2]. - The PTA price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the improvement of fundamentals, while the ethylene glycol price is expected to have a wide - range adjustment [2][3]. - The rubber market is expected to fluctuate under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, with winter storage demand supporting the raw material price [3]. - The methanol market is expected to maintain a bottom - range fluctuation, and the port inventory is expected to enter the destocking stage from mid - December this year to early January next year [3]. - The polyolefin market is expected to have a bottom - weak fluctuation as it gradually shifts to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the decline in valuation may prompt downstream price - fixing or inventory - building actions [5]. - The PVC market is expected to show a weak - range fluctuation due to high supply - demand pressure and weak fundamental drivers, despite the narrowing of the hedging space [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices moved up. WTI December contract closed up $0.83 to $60.74 per barrel, a 1.39% increase; Brent January contract closed up $0.69 to $64.89 per barrel, a 1.07% increase. SC2512 closed at 466 yuan per barrel, up 5.4 yuan per barrel, a 1.17% increase. The new main contract SC2601 closed at 465.7 yuan per barrel, up 3.4 yuan per barrel, a 0.74% increase. API data showed that last week, US API crude oil inventory increased by 4.448 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 790,000 barrels. China's gasoline and diesel production in October 2025 had different year - on - year changes, and an Iranian coast guard intercepted a tanker [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contract of fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, FU2601, closed down 1.62% at 2558 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2601 closed up 0.31% at 3247 yuan per ton. Singapore is expected to receive about 2.9 - 3 million tons of low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage cargo from the West in November [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main contract of asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, BU2601, closed down 0.36% at 3032 yuan per ton. Refineries are still releasing a large number of low - price forward contracts, and the spot price is under great pressure [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4670 yuan per ton, down 0.47%; EG2601 closed at 3907 yuan per ton, down 0.79%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, and the cancellation of India's BIS certification is beneficial to PTA and its downstream exports [2][3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber, RU2601, fell 20 yuan per ton to 15295 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract fell 10 yuan per ton to 12345 yuan per ton. Rubber production is seasonally increasing, and imports are increasing year - on - year, while overseas tire demand is slightly decreasing [3]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2002 yuan per ton. Domestic maintenance devices are gradually resuming production, and Iranian devices may stop from late November to December, which may lead to a significant decline in arrivals in January [3]. - **Polyolefin**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene was 6380 - 6580 yuan per ton. Polyolefins are gradually shifting to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the decline in valuation may prompt downstream actions [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, the price of PVC in East, North, and South China markets decreased. The supply remains at a high - level fluctuation, and the demand is expected to decline as real - estate construction slows down [5]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis, basis rate, spot price, futures price, and other data of various energy - chemical products on November 19, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [6] 3.3 Market News - API data shows that last week, US API crude oil inventory increased by 4.448 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 790,000 barrels, and gasoline and distillate inventories also changed [9]. - China's National Bureau of Statistics data shows that in October 2025, China's gasoline production was 13.457 million tons, a 1.7% year - on - year increase, and diesel production was 17.683 million tons, a 0.5% year - on - year increase [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [10][11][12] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [28][29][30] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [42][43][44] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: It includes the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur, etc. [58][59][60] - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [65][66]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: One red star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [5][6] - Fuel oil: Three red stars, suggesting a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Asphalt: Three green stars, suggesting a clearer downward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] Core Viewpoints - The oil price has continued to show a weak and volatile performance since the end of October. The supply-side contraction-induced cyclical inflection point of oil prices has not been seen yet, and a weak and volatile judgment on crude oil is maintained [2] - High-sulfur fuel oil is still supported by geopolitical factors in the short term, but the medium-term supply pattern tends to be loose. Low-sulfur fuel oil has been strong recently due to supply-side fluctuations, but medium-term supply pressure still exists [2] - The cost support for asphalt has been continuously weakening, the demand is expected to follow the seasonal weakening pattern, and the medium- and long-term fundamentals have a bearish impact on BU [3] - The supply and demand of liquefied petroleum gas have tightened marginally, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since the end of October, the oil price has continued to show a weak and volatile performance. Geopolitical risks have boosted the oil price, but the rebound height has always been limited [2] - According to the monthly reports of the three major institutions, considering the suspension of production increases by OPEC+ in the first quarter of next year and the strict implementation of production cut compensation, the global oil market will have a supply surplus of 1.84 million barrels per day and 3.31 million barrels per day this year and next year respectively [2] - The supply-side contraction-induced cyclical inflection point of oil prices has not been seen yet, and a weak and volatile judgment on crude oil is maintained [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil is still supported by geopolitical factors in the short term. The subsequent actual exports of Russia still have uncertainties, but the medium-term supply pattern tends to be loose [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil has been strong recently due to supply-side fluctuations, but the possible increase in low-sulfur shipping volume caused by the planned maintenance of the RFCC unit of the Kaigute refinery at the end of December needs attention, and medium-term supply pressure still exists [2] Asphalt - In November, the discount of diluted asphalt dropped to -$11 per barrel, and the cost support has been continuously weakening [3] - Since November, the weekly shipment volume has decreased month-on-month and is also at a low level in the same period of the past four years [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" end-year rush demand expectation has been falsified, and the subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening pattern. The medium- and long-term fundamentals have a bearish impact on BU [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The increase in propane discount supports the import landed cost [4] - The improvement in the profitability of butane dehydrogenation units has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start operations, and the demand on the combustion side has improved [4] - The supply and demand of liquefied petroleum gas have tightened marginally, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: One red star, indicating a bullish bias but with limited trading opportunities on the market [5][6] - Fuel oil: Three red stars, suggesting a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Asphalt: Three green stars, meaning a clearer downward trend and relatively appropriate short-selling opportunities [5][6] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Three red stars, suggesting a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] Report's Core View - The oil market is facing different supply and demand situations, with crude oil expected to be volatile and weak, while fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and liquefied petroleum gas are expected to be bullish, and asphalt is expected to be bearish [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since late October, oil prices have continued to show a volatile and weak performance, with geopolitical risks providing some support but limited rebound [2] - According to the three major institutions' monthly reports, considering OPEC+'s suspension of production increases and strict implementation of production cut compensation in the first quarter of next year, the global oil market will have a supply surplus of 1.84 million barrels per day this year and 3.31 million barrels per day next year [2] - The supply-side contraction has not yet led to a cyclical inflection point in oil prices, and a volatile and weak outlook is maintained [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil is currently supported by geopolitical factors, but the mid-term supply pattern is expected to be loose as the Middle East increases production and the power generation peak season ends [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil has been strong recently due to supply-side fluctuations, but mid-term supply pressure still exists, especially considering the planned maintenance of the RFCC unit at the Kert refinery in late December [2] Asphalt - In November, the discount of diluted asphalt dropped to -$11 per barrel, weakening cost support [3] - Weekly shipments have decreased month-on-month since November and are at a low level in the same period in the past four years [3] - Commercial inventory depletion has continued to slow down, and the year-on-year increase in social inventory has widened since the end of October [3] - The expected rush demand in the "14th Five-Year Plan" has been disproven, and subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening pattern, with negative signals for year-end demand compared to last year [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The increase in propane discount supports the import cost [4] - The improvement in the profitability of butane dehydrogenation units has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start production, and the demand for combustion has improved due to the significant cooling in many places [4] - The inventory rates of refineries and ports have decreased, and the supply and demand have tightened marginally, leading to a bullish outlook [4]

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report - Report Date: November 16, 2025 - Analyst: Liang Kefang - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0019111 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, fuel oil prices continued to decline following crude oil, with low-sulfur fuel oil remaining relatively stronger than high-sulfur fuel oil both domestically and internationally. For high-sulfur fuel oil, with high export volumes from the Middle East, the spot market's transaction premium remained weak. As demand for shipping and power generation entered the off-season, the short-term weakness of high-sulfur fuel oil may not be reversed. For low-sulfur fuel oil, refinery maintenance in Brazil and European refineries' shift to deep processing of heavy components to increase gasoline and diesel production led to a decrease in spot volumes flowing to the Asia-Pacific region, and the spot transaction premium began to gradually recover. Temporarily, even if some refineries end maintenance at the end of the month, as long as gasoline and diesel profits remain at current levels, European refineries may still convert a large amount of heavy components into gasoline and diesel, reducing exports to the Asia-Pacific and limiting the overall market's spot supply. Therefore, the strength of low-sulfur fuel oil relative to high-sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue. - Valuation: FU: 2550 - 2800; LU: 3150 - 3350 - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: Fuel oil prices will remain weak in the short term, with LU remaining relatively strong. 2) Inter-period: The LU monthly spread structure has been reversed and will remain the same before the number of warehouse receipts increases significantly. 3) Inter-variety: FU cracking will fluctuate at a high level; the LU - FU spread will gradually rebound in the short term. [4] Summary by Directory Supply - Refinery Operations: Data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries, independent refineries, and major refineries from 2016 - 2025 are presented, including weekly data on the capacity utilization rate of the crude oil atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit [6]. - Global Refinery Maintenance: Data on the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 are provided [9][11][13][14]. - Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume: Data on China's monthly fuel oil production, domestic commercial volume, and low-sulfur fuel oil production from 2018 - 2025 are presented [18][19]. Demand - Domestic and International Fuel Oil Demand Data: Data on China's monthly marine fuel oil actual consumption, Singapore's monthly fuel oil bunker sales, and China's monthly fuel oil apparent consumption from 2018 - 2025 are provided [23]. Inventory - Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory: Data on Singapore's heavy oil inventory, European ARA fuel oil inventory, Fujairah's heavy distillate inventory, and the weekly residual fuel oil inventory in the US from 2018 - 2025 are presented [27][28][30]. Price and Spread - Asia-Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, Singapore, and the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2025 are provided [34][37][38]. - European Regional Spot FOB Prices: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in the Northwest Europe, Mediterranean, US Gulf, and New York Harbor from 2018 - 2025 are presented [44][45]. - Paper and Derivative Prices: Data on the high-sulfur and low-sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore from 2024 - 2025 are provided, as well as data on the continuous contracts of LU and FU from 2021 - 2025 [47][48][51]. - Fuel Oil Spot Spread: Data on the Singapore high-sulfur and low-sulfur spreads, and viscosity spreads from 2018 - 2025 are presented [57]. - Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spread: Data on the Singapore high-sulfur and low-sulfur cracking spreads, and Northwest Europe 3.5% and 1% cracking spreads from 2019 - 2025 are presented [59][60][61]. - Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread: Data on the Singapore and Northwest Europe high-sulfur and low-sulfur M1 - M2 and M2 - M3 monthly spreads from 2022 - 2025 are presented [63]. Import and Export - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on China's monthly fuel oil import and export volumes (excluding biodiesel) from 2018 - 2025 are presented [68][71]. - Global High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the weekly changes in global high-sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in China, the Middle East, the US, Singapore + Malaysia, India, and Northwest Europe from 2018 - 2025 are presented [73]. - Global Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the weekly changes in global low-sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in Singapore + Malaysia, China, the US, the Mediterranean + Black Sea, Northwest Europe, and the Middle East from 2018 - 2025 are presented [75]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal-External Spreads - Review: During the week, Asia-Pacific fuel oil prices continued to decline, and the Zhoushan market followed the same trend. In terms of spreads, the domestic FU and LU were relatively weaker than the international market, and the spreads began to shrink. - Logic: For FU, the short positions still outnumbered the long positions, causing FU to perform relatively weaker than the international spot market, and the spread continued to shrink. For LU, the number of warehouse receipts remained stable after the delivery, and the internal-external spread may end the convergence in the short term. Data on the internal-external spreads of 380 and 0.5% spot, FU main contract, FU continuous contract, and LU continuous contract from November 10 - 14, 2025 are presented [78][79][80]. - Spot Market Internal-External Spread: Data on the internal-external spreads of 380 and 0.5% spot from 2021 - 2025 are presented [83][84]. - Futures Market Internal-External Spread: Data on the internal-external spreads of FU main contract, FU continuous contract, and LU continuous contract from 2021 - 2025 are presented [88][89]. - FU and LU Open Interest and Trading Volume Changes: Data on the trading volume and open interest of fuel oil main continuous contract, continuous contract, low-sulfur fuel oil continuous contract, and continuous contract from 2020 - 2025 are presented [92][94][97][100]. - FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes: Data on the quantity changes of FU and LU warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025 are presented [103][104].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/ bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability in the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, similar to crude oil, with a bias but limited operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, same as above [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, with a bias but limited operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability and a wait - and - see approach [1] Core Viewpoints - The global oil market will have supply surpluses of 1.84 million barrels per day and 3.31 million barrels per day this year and next year respectively, and the surplus will gradually expand quarter by quarter. There is still a downward risk in the crude oil market this year [1] - The fuel oil market is affected by geopolitical factors, and the upward drive for high - sulfur cracking is limited. The low - sulfur market has improved fundamentals [2] - The 2601 asphalt contract has some support at 3000 yuan/ton, and the fundamental bearish factors still suppress the market in the medium - to - long term [3] - The LPG market is expected to fluctuate strongly due to tightened supply - demand margins [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Based on the latest adjustments of the supply - demand balance sheets by three major institutions in November, considering OPEC+ suspending production increases and strictly implementing production cut compensation in the first quarter of next year, the global oil market will have supply surpluses of 1.84 million barrels per day and 3.31 million barrels per day this year and next year respectively. The supply surplus will gradually expand quarter by quarter, and the most relaxed quarter (Q1 next year) has not arrived yet. Since the fourth quarter, the inventory accumulation rate of global oil at 2.4% has exceeded that of the previous three quarters, and the supply surplus is increasingly evident in the inventory. There is still a downward risk in the crude oil market this year, and attention should be paid to the realization of geopolitical risks related to Venezuela [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The drone attack on Russia's Novorossiysk today damaged the oil terminal facilities, driving up the prices of crude - related products, and fuel oil followed suit. In terms of fundamentals, high - sulfur fuel oil is still supported by geopolitical factors in the short term. Sanctions and attacks on Russia continue to disrupt the supply side, and the possible further sanctions on Venezuela by the US also bring uncertainties. However, the actual reduction in supply needs further observation. The demand side is at the end of the power - generation peak season, and the increase in Middle - East supply offsets the impact, and the demand for refinery feedstock is also weak, so the upward drive for high - sulfur cracking is limited. The low - sulfur market has seen a relief in supply pressure due to unstable operation of overseas refineries. The strengthening of the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel provides support from the perspective of production conversion. Coupled with the peak season of bunker fuel demand in the fourth quarter and the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the fundamentals have improved compared with the previous period [2] Asphalt - The 2601 contract has some support at 3000 yuan/ton. The worse - than - expected shipment volume not only disproves the expectation of rush - demand in the final year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" but also sends a negative signal that the demand is lower than the same period last year. The destocking of the latest commercial inventory continues to slow down, and the year - on - year increase in social inventory has widened after reaching an inflection point of being higher than the same period last year at the end of October. In the medium - to - long term, the bearish fundamentals still suppress the BU market [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international LPG market has been trending strongly recently, and the supply of imported resources is tight. The improved profitability of butane dehydrogenation plants has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start production, and the significant cooling in many places has led to an improvement in combustion - end demand. The storage capacity utilization rates of refineries and ports have decreased. The tightening of supply - demand margins has boosted the LPG market to be regarded as fluctuating strongly [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price will continue to fluctuate. The IEA warns that the global oil market will face a large - scale surplus of up to 4.09 million barrels per day next year [1]. - The prices of fuel oil (FU and LU) are expected to be bearish, with Asian low - sulfur market facing supply and demand dilemmas and high - sulfur market supported by stable demand but with sufficient supply [1][3]. - The asphalt price is temporarily viewed bearishly due to abundant market resources, weak downstream demand, and supply decline being less than demand decline [3]. - PX&TA are expected to fluctuate following the cost side in the short term, while the ethylene glycol price is expected to be under pressure with high supply and limited demand growth [3][5]. - The rubber price is expected to fluctuate due to increased supply and weak overseas demand [5]. - The methanol price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, with potential supply changes due to Iranian device conditions and port inventory trends [5][6]. - The polyolefin price is expected to bottom - oscillate, with a shift to a supply - strong and demand - weak situation but with valuation - related factors limiting further decline [6]. - The PVC price is expected to bottom - oscillate, with high - level supply, weak domestic demand, and potential export - market changes [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 12 - month contract rose 0.2 dollars to 58.69 dollars/barrel (0.34% increase), Brent 1 - month contract rose 0.3 dollars to 63.01 dollars/barrel (0.48% increase), and SC2512 fell 2.8 yuan/barrel to 451.6 yuan/barrel (0.62% decrease). US commercial crude inventory increased by 6.4 million barrels to 427.58 million barrels as of November 7, higher than the market expectation. The IEA predicts a large - scale surplus in the global oil market next year [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, FU2601 fell 3.71% to 2595 yuan/ton, LU2601 fell 4.41% to 3164 yuan/ton. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased. Asian low - sulfur market has supply and demand issues, while high - sulfur market is supported by stable demand [1][3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, BU2601 fell 1.05% to 3029 yuan/ton. This week, domestic asphalt shipments decreased by 18.7%, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased. In November, production and consumption both declined, with supply decline less than demand [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 rose 0.64% to 4700 yuan/ton, EG2601 rose 0.03% to 3892 yuan/ton, and PX601 rose 0.92% to 6836 yuan/ton. Some glycol devices are under maintenance. PX&TA are expected to follow the cost side, and ethylene glycol is under supply pressure [3][5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, RU2601 rose 170 yuan/ton to 15390 yuan/ton, NR rose 220 yuan/ton to 12400 yuan/ton, and BR rose 50 yuan/ton to 10480 yuan/ton. Rubber supply increased, and overseas demand weakened [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply is currently at a high level, and Iranian devices may stop in November - December, leading to a potential decline in January arrivals. Port inventory is expected to start de - stocking from mid - December to early January [5][6]. - **Polyolefin**: The price of polyolefin products shows a downward trend in profit. It is expected to shift to a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, but valuation factors may limit further decline [6]. - **PVC**: The price oscillated on Thursday. Supply is at a high level, domestic demand is weak, and the cancellation of BIS certification may boost exports, but anti - dumping needs attention [6][7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the basis data of various energy - chemical products on November 14, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and the change of basis rate compared with previous days, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The EIA report shows that last week, US crude inventory increased, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased. As of November 7, US commercial crude inventory increased by 6.4 million barrels to 427.58 million barrels, and Cushing crude inventory decreased by 346,000 barrels [12]. - The IEA warns that the global oil market will face a large - scale surplus of up to 4.09 million barrels per day next year, which is equivalent to nearly 4% of global oil demand and much higher than other forecasts [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are 29 figures showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [14][15][16] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: There are 31 figures showing the basis of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [30][34][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are 15 figures showing the spreads between different contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [42][44][47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: There are 10 figures showing the spreads between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [58][60][63] - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are 2 figures showing the production profits of LLDPE and PP [66]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Crude Oil, Gas, etc. Analyst), Di Yilin (Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst), and Peng Haibo (Methanol/Propylene, etc. Analyst), each with rich experience and achievements [71][72][73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall energy - chemical market shows a volatile trend. Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are all expected to run in a volatile manner, with different influencing factors for each variety [1][3][5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices rebounded. WTI December contract rose $0.91 to $61.04 per barrel, a 1.51% increase; Brent January contract rose $1.1 to $65.16 per barrel, a 1.72% increase; SC2512 closed at 468.9 yuan per barrel, up 9.7 yuan or 2.11%. US crude inventory is expected to increase, while gasoline and distillate inventories are expected to decline. Asian gasoline refining profit reached the highest level since January 2024. The market shows certain linkages, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The Asian low - sulfur market faces supply and demand problems, but the East - West arbitrage window is basically closed. The Asian high - sulfur market is supported by stable demand but has sufficient supply. The market structure of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue to reverse [1]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. The market has abundant resources but weak demand, and the spot price has reached a nearly three - year low. Although the production in November has decreased, the short - term supply still faces pressure. The price of asphalt is treated with a bearish view [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 and EG2601 closed down. PX&TA futures prices rebounded, and the processing margin on the disk narrowed. The supply side has maintenance plans, and the downstream polyester maintains a high operating rate. It is expected that PX&TA will follow the cost side to fluctuate in the short term. The supply pressure of ethylene glycol remains, and the price is expected to be under pressure [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The rubber production is seasonally increasing, and the supply pressure is increasing. The downstream demand is weak overseas, and the EU's investigations have increased export concerns. It is expected that rubber prices will fluctuate [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply in the domestic market has recovered to a high level, and Iranian devices may stop production from late November to December. It is expected that methanol will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [5]. - **Polyolefins**: The short - term production will remain high, and the downstream demand will weaken marginally after the e - commerce activities. It is expected that polyolefin prices will enter a volatile and weak stage [7]. - **PVC**: The supply maintains a high - level oscillation, the domestic demand slows down, and exports are affected by India's anti - dumping policy. It is expected that PVC prices will tend to oscillate at the bottom [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of energy - chemical varieties on November 12, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [10]. 3.3 Market News - Last week, US crude inventory was expected to increase, and gasoline and distillate inventories were expected to decline. As of the week of November 7, US crude inventory was expected to increase by about 1.2 million barrels [12]. - Although the US imposed new sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Russian oil shipments remained stable in early November and are expected to decline from the end of November [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides price trend charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [14][16][19][22][25][27][30][31]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trend charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [32][38][39][42][43][44]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It presents the spread trend charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [48][50][53][56][59][61]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It provides the spread and ratio trend charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [63][65]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: It shows the production profit trend charts of LLDPE and PP [71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts such as Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and achievements in different energy - chemical fields [76][77][78][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil showed a rebound trend, gradually returning to the levels at the beginning of the month. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the spot market's transaction premium did not strengthen significantly, indicating no obvious supply shortage, but the export situation of Russia needs to be observed. For low - sulfur fuel oil, it is rumored that state - owned refineries are converting some low - sulfur export quotas into refined oil export quotas, which will lead to a decline in future port spot supply, making the LU price stronger than the FU price. However, as the domestic price rises, domestic traders may increase imports, which will resist the upward price trend. - Valuation: FU is between 2600 - 2800, and LU is between 3150 - 3350. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: FU remains weak in the short term, while LU is still strong. 2) Inter - period: The LU monthly spread structure has been reversed and will remain so before the number of warehouse receipts increases. 3) Inter - variety: The FU crack spread fluctuates at a high level; the LU - FU spread will gradually rebound in the short term. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - **Refinery Operation**: The content shows the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries from 2016 - 2025. [6] - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: It presents the maintenance volumes of global CDU devices, hydrocracking devices, FCC devices, and coking devices from 2018 - 2025. [9][11][13][14] - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume**: It shows the monthly production of fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and domestic commercial volume of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025. [19][20] Demand - **Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data**: It shows the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025. [23] Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: It shows the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2025. [27][29][30] Price and Spread - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, etc. from 2018 - 2025. [34][35][36][37] - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, etc. from 2018 - 2025. [38][39][40][42][44] - **US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices**: It shows the spot prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high - sulfur fuel oil in the New York Harbor, etc. from 2018 - 2025. [45] - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore from 2024 - 2025, as well as the prices of LU and FU futures contracts from 2021 - 2025. [48][49][51][52][54][56] - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: It shows the high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2019 - 2025. [59] - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025. [60][61][62][63] - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread**: It shows the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2022 - 2025. [65] Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025. [70][72][73] - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global high - sulfur fuel oil, including data from China, the Middle East, the US, etc. [74] - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global low - sulfur fuel oil, including data from Singapore + Malaysia, China, the US, etc. [76] Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Review**: This week, the Asia - Pacific fuel oil prices declined, and the Zhoushan market moved in tandem. In terms of spreads, the domestic FU and LU were weaker than the overseas market, and the spreads began to shrink. - **Logic**: For FU, the short positions still led the long positions, causing the FU to be weaker than the overseas spot, and the spread continued to shrink. For LU, the number of warehouse receipts increased significantly at the beginning of the delivery period, the market view turned short - term bearish, the long positions decreased rapidly, and the spread of LU relative to the overseas spot began to decline. [79][80] - **Spot Market Internal - External Spreads**: It shows the internal - external spreads of 380 and 0.5% fuel oil from 2021 - 2025. [83][85] - **Futures Market Internal - External Spreads**: It shows the internal - external spreads of FU and LU futures contracts relative to Singapore from 2021 - 2025. [90][91] - **FU and LU Position and Volume Changes**: It shows the position and volume changes of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts from 2020 - 2025. [94][95][96][99][100][102] - **FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes**: It shows the quantity changes of FU and LU warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025. [105][106]