Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the text. Core Views of the Report - The short - term outlook for the stock index is expected to be volatile. As the negative factors of trade frictions gradually ease, the stock index is expected to return to the upward channel. Even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of the stock index is expected to be limited. The strategy is to go long on the stock index when opportunities arise [1]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to be volatile, some are expected to be strong, and some are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term volatility, expected to return to the upward channel later, with limited adjustment space. Strategy: go long when opportunities arise [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Volatile. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: Short - term wide - range volatility. Geopolitical uncertainties and potential Fed rate cuts support the price, but the new round of Sino - US consultations limit the rise [1]. - **Silver**: Volatile in the short - term, and the physical situation in London needs to be monitored [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term price fluctuations are intensified, but with continuous supply disturbances and an increasing Fed rate - cut expectation, it is expected to be strong [1]. - **Alumina**: With production still profitable, domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, and production and inventory are increasing. The spot price is under pressure, and cost support needs attention [1]. - **Zinc**: After a short - term rebound, the export window closes again. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and changes in domestic and foreign inventories need attention [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term volatility is mainly influenced by the macro situation and may be strong, but high inventory still suppresses the price. Suggestion: short - term low - buying within the range, and there is still pressure from long - term excess of primary nickel [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro situation improves, and the trade friction eases. The stainless steel futures may rebound in the short - term. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - **Tin**: Although the short - term impact of the Indonesian ore ban is not significant, the supply risk is high, and there is demand support. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The industrial driving force is unclear, and the futures valuation is low. Directional trading is not recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward potential [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Direct demand is good, but supply is high, and inventory is at a high level. The price is under pressure and volatile [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Short - term production profit is poor, but cost support is strengthening, and direct demand is good. The price is expected to be volatile and the downward space is limited [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Follows the glass market, with a large supply - surplus pressure, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the price rebounded to fill the gap, it reached a relatively high level. It may challenge previous highs, but the breakthrough is difficult. It may be in a wide - range volatile market if there is no new policy on "anti - involution" [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's plan to regulate exports is favorable for the far - month contract. The near - month contract lacks new drivers, and it is advisable to wait for the production area to reduce production and destock [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The pressure from US soybean prices and the support from domestic de - stocking expectations coexist. There is a lack of new drivers, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Canola Oil**: The negotiation on Canadian canola anti - dumping may bring negative news. The domestic canola is in short supply, and the inventory is decreasing. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading, and the inter - month positive spread is expected to rise [1]. - **Cotton**: There is uncertainty in new - year cotton demand. The downside space of the futures is limited, but the basis and the futures may be under pressure due to high production [1]. - **Sugar**: In the short - term, sugar prices are seasonally strong due to typhoon impacts and the gap between old and new crops. In the medium - term, the rebound space is limited after new sugar is listed [1]. - **Corn**: The current stage still focuses on the selling pressure in November. The C01 contract is expected to be in low - level volatility [1]. - **Methanol**: The MO1 contract is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see or go long in the short - term, and pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and South American weather [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The trading logic is related to the old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. With weak downstream demand, it is recommended to do a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - **Logs**: The log fundamentals have declined, and the spot price is firm. It is advisable to wait and see after a sharp decline in the futures [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has stabilized, but the futures still have a premium. It is necessary to wait for changes in the slaughter volume and weight, and the short - term trend is volatile [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: Influenced by US sanctions on Russia, geopolitical tensions, and the US attitude towards China's tariffs [1]. - **Bitumen**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - **SBS Rubber**: Supported by strong raw material costs, decreasing intermediate inventory, and a positive commodity market atmosphere [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost support is weak, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. Attention should be paid to inventory de - stocking [1]. - **PTA**: The price rebounds slightly due to factors such as a decline in domestic production caused by equipment inspections [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory in East China is low, the cost support is strengthening, and the polyester market has not declined significantly [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory equipment is gradually resuming operation, the basis is strengthening, and the price follows the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the arbitrage window to the US is closed, and domestic styrene plant inspections are increasing [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment eases, and domestic demand is insufficient. There is an upper limit to the price, but there is support from "anti - involution" and cost [1]. - **PE**: The price is volatile and slightly strong due to a slight downward adjustment in the crude oil price center, weakened inspection efforts, and slowly increasing downstream demand [1]. - **PP**: The inspection support is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is large, there are many near - month warehouse receipts, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **LPG**: There are problems such as planned alumina production in Guangxi, decreasing inspection concentration, and difficult digestion of warehouse receipts. The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic fundamentals are also loose [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - The stock market has seen rapid rotation of hot sectors recently, with reduced risk appetite and short - term uncertainty, but the long - term policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, suggesting a long - term strategy of buying on dips [4]. - The bond market may face short - term risk preference decline, which is conducive to its repair. In the fourth quarter, it is necessary to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The overall situation may be volatile, and it may repair if the stock market cools down and the allocation power increases [7]. - For precious metals, the Fed's monetary policy is in the early stage of the easing cycle. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, buying on dips [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, most metal prices are expected to be strong due to factors such as trade negotiation sentiment improvement and supply - side constraints [12][14]. - In the black building materials market, steel prices may be weak in the short term but have long - term upward potential. Iron ore prices will oscillate due to the tug - of - war between weak reality and macro expectations [33][36]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different trends. For example, rubber prices may turn neutral, and crude oil prices are recommended to be observed in the short term [54][56]. - In the agricultural products market, the prices of various products such as hogs, eggs, and grains are affected by supply and demand factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed [79][81]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. There will be economic and trade consultations between China and the US. The R & D of new - generation batteries is being promoted [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term uncertainty exists, but long - term buying on dips is recommended [4]. - **Treasury Bond** - **Market Information**: Bond prices declined on Thursday. There will be China - US economic and trade consultations, and the central government held a symposium on the "15th Five - Year Plan" for central enterprises. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The short - term risk preference decline is beneficial to the bond market repair. The fourth - quarter situation may be volatile, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose. The US will release September CPI data, and it is expected that the data may be lower than expected, which will support precious metal prices [8]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position strategy and buy on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose. LME copper inventory increased, while domestic warehouse receipts decreased. The import of copper spot was at a loss [11]. - **Strategy**: Due to potential supply tightening and improved trade negotiation sentiment, copper prices may remain strong [12]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices continued to rise. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased, and the external LME aluminum inventory also decreased [13]. - **Strategy**: With the easing of trade tensions and low domestic inventory, aluminum prices may rise further [14]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose. Domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and overseas registered zinc warehouse receipts were at a low level [15]. - **Strategy**: The domestic zinc concentrate inventory decreased, and the overseas market had structural risks. Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short term [17]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose. The lead ore port inventory increased, and the lead ingot social inventory decreased [18]. - **Strategy**: With the improvement of downstream demand and the reduction of inventory, lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term [18]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. The cost of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron was weak [19]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops significantly [20][21]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices declined slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand from traditional industries was weak [22]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, tin prices may remain high and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [22]. - **Carbonate Lithium** - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium rose, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy**: The downstream demand is strong, and the price may face pressure from supply recovery and hedging. It is necessary to pay attention to market changes [24]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The price of alumina rose slightly. The overseas price decreased, and the inventory increased [25]. - **Strategy**: The ore price may be under pressure after the rainy season, and the production capacity of alumina is excessive. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel rose. The social inventory decreased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: The market confidence has recovered, and the subsequent trend depends on the release of downstream demand [28]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy**: The cost supports the price, but the high warehouse receipts limit the upward space [30]. Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fluctuated slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased marginally [32]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, steel prices are weak, but in the long term, they may rise due to the loosening of the macro environment [33]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose. The overseas shipment increased, and the iron water output decreased [34][35]. - **Strategy**: The demand for iron ore is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. The price will oscillate due to the influence of macro expectations [36]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose, and the inventory increased. Soda ash prices rose slightly, and the inventory also increased [37][38]. - **Strategy**: Glass prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and soda ash prices will continue to oscillate weakly [37][38]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose slightly. The spot prices were higher than the futures prices [39]. - **Strategy**: The impact of trade frictions may ease. It is recommended to look for opportunities to rebound in the black sector [42][43]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices also rose. The supply of industrial silicon increased, and the polysilicon supply may decrease in the future [44][47]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices will oscillate, and polysilicon prices will be affected by supply and policy expectations [45][48]. Energy and Chemical - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose due to typhoon and stock market factors. The demand is in a seasonal off - season [50]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to gradually exit short - term long positions and adopt a neutral strategy [54]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose. The US crude oil inventory decreased, and the SPR inventory increased [55]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support intention [56]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: Methanol prices rose. The port inventory increased slowly, and the domestic start - up rate decreased [57][58]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see due to potential supply disturbances and high port inventory [58]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: Urea prices rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand also increased [59][60]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities at low prices [60]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices decreased, and styrene prices increased. The supply of pure benzene was abundant, and the demand for styrene increased [61]. - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling in the short term due to inventory reduction and seasonal demand [62]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. The production was high, and the demand was weak [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [64][65]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply was high, and the inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies due to expected inventory accumulation [67]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. The supply increased slightly, and the demand remained stable [68]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see due to weak processing fees and uncertain terminal demand [69]. - **Para - xylene** - **Market Information**: PX prices rose. The load was high, and the downstream demand was weak [70][71]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see as there is no obvious driving force and it mainly follows the crude oil trend [72]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. The inventory decreased, and the demand increased seasonally [73]. - **Strategy**: PE prices may remain low and oscillate due to high - level warehouse receipts and cost factors [74]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: PP prices rose. The supply pressure was high, and the demand rebounded seasonally [75]. - **Strategy**: The overall inventory pressure is high, and the cost supply surplus suppresses the price [76]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs** - **Market Information**: Hog prices fluctuated. The supply and demand were in a stalemate [78]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, hog prices may be strong, but in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies [79]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with slight increases. The supply was normal, and the demand was average [80]. - **Strategy**: The spot price may have limited upward space, and it is recommended to wait and see [81]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: Soybean meal prices rose. The domestic soybean inventory was high, and the import of US soybeans was uncertain [82]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, there is support, but in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies due to the expected abundant supply [84]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: Oil prices fell. The palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia was high, and the supply pressure was large [85]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for a clearer production signal [86]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded. The production in Brazil is expected to increase, and the prices of domestic processing factories decreased [87]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter as the overall supply is expected to increase [89]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rebounded. The new cotton purchase price increased, but the demand was weak [90]. - **Strategy**: The upward space of cotton prices is limited due to weak fundamentals [91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For oil prices, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet expanding, it's not advisable to be overly bearish in the short - term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now and verify OPEC's export price - support intention when oil prices fall [2]. - For methanol, the import unloading process is slow, port inventory accumulation has slowed. The market's key contradiction is the unexpected import reduction. There are potential bullish factors, and it's recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, the supply - side device maintenance is over, and demand from compound fertilizer production has increased. High inventory has reduced price volatility, and it's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [7]. - For rubber, prices have risen due to typhoon and stock - market factors. Bulls and bears hold different views. It's recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and partially build positions for the RU2601 - RU2609 spread hedge [9][10][12]. - For PVC, the supply - demand situation is poor with strong supply and weak demand, and it's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. Styrene port inventory is high, but prices may stop falling in stages [19]. - For polyethylene, prices may remain range - bound at low levels. Cost - side support has emerged, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market [22]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand, high inventory and high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market [25]. - For PX, the load is high, and it's difficult to reduce inventory. It mainly follows oil price fluctuations, and it's recommended to wait and see [26]. - For PTA, the supply is increasing slightly, and demand shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is expected to continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and it's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [29]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Energy - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 11.00 yuan/barrel, or 2.52%. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 56.00 yuan/ton, or 2.13%, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 71.00 yuan/ton, or 2.32%. US EIA data showed that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 0.96 million barrels to 422.82 million barrels, SPR increased by 0.82 million barrels to 408.56 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 2.15 million barrels to 216.68 million barrels, diesel inventories decreased by 1.48 million barrels to 115.55 million barrels, fuel oil inventories increased by 0.50 million barrels to 21.93 million barrels, and aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 1.49 million barrels to 42.93 million barrels [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On October 24, 2025, the price in Taicang increased by 6 yuan, that in Inner Mongolia increased by 2.5 yuan, and that in southern Shandong remained stable. The 01 - contract price on the futures market increased by 31 yuan to 2292 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 44. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 2 to - 37 [2]. - **Strategy**: Import unloading is slow, port inventory accumulation has slowed. The current port inventory is 151.22 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.08 tons. Domestic production has declined, and port olefin production has remained stable. Traditional demand has generally weakened. It's recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On October 24, 2025, the spot price in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased by 10 yuan. The 01 - contract price on the futures market increased by 17 yuan to 1638 yuan, and the basis was - 98. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2 to - 72 [5]. - **Strategy**: Supply - side device maintenance is over, and demand from compound fertilizer production has increased. Enterprises' inventory accumulation has slowed, with the current inventory at 163.02 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.48 tons. It's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: On October 24, 2025, rubber prices rose due to typhoon and stock - market factors. The typhoon affected rubber - producing areas in Hainan, Yunnan, Vietnam, and Thailand [9]. - **Strategy**: Bulls believe in limited production growth, seasonal price increases, and improved demand in China. Bears are concerned about macro - uncertainty, seasonal weak demand, and potential under - performance of supply - side positives. It's recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and partially build positions for the RU2601 - RU2609 spread hedge [10][12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: On October 24, 2025, the PVC01 contract rose 11 yuan to 4730 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4610 (+10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 120 (-1) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 300 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 76.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.9%. Factory inventory was 36 tons (-2.3), and social inventory was 103.4 tons (-0.3) [14]. - **Strategy**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined to a low level this year. Supply - side maintenance is limited, production is at a historical high, and new devices are about to start trial operation. Domestic demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: On October 24, 2025, the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract was 5604 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract was 6545 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 71.88%, a decrease of 1.73%. Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.60 tons to 20.25 tons [18]. - **Strategy**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. Styrene port inventory is high, but prices may stop falling in stages [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: On October 24, 2025, the closing price of the main contract was 6999 yuan/ton, an increase of 63 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7000 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 80.98%, a decrease of 0.09%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.49 tons to 51.46 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 0.04 tons to 5.00 tons [21]. - **Strategy**: Prices may remain range - bound at low levels. Cost - side support has emerged, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: On October 24, 2025, the closing price of the main contract was 6691 yuan/ton, an increase of 72 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6615 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 75.3%, an increase of 0.7%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.02 tons to 63.85 tons, trader inventory decreased by 1.86 tons to 22.00 tons, and port inventory decreased by 0.11 tons to 6.68 tons [24]. - **Strategy**: In a situation of weak supply and demand, high inventory and high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market [25]. PX, PTA, and MEG PX - **Market Quotes**: On October 24, 2025, the PX01 contract rose 46 yuan to 6496 yuan. The CFR price rose 13 dollars to 811 dollars. The Chinese operating rate was 84.9%, a decrease of 2.5%. The Asian operating rate was 78%, a decrease of 1.9%. Some devices were under maintenance. In mid - and early - October, South Korea's PX exports to China were 25.6 tons, an increase of 1.9 tons year - on - year [25]. - **Strategy**: The load is high, and it's difficult to reduce inventory. It mainly follows oil price fluctuations, and it's recommended to wait and see [26]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: On October 24, 2025, the PTA01 contract rose 26 yuan to 4508 yuan. The East - China spot price rose 55 yuan to

Group 1: Report Core Views - Although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not surging, oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now [2] - For methanol, the import unloading is delayed, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply drops slightly, coal prices rebound, and demand remains weak. The pattern of high inventory and weak reality persists, and it is advisable to wait and see, with potential upward drivers from winter gas restrictions [4] - Regarding urea, short - term malfunctioning devices increase, production declines, and demand is weak. The price is at a low level with low valuation, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities on dips [7] - Rubber prices are rising due to typhoons and stock market bullishness. Bulls and bears have different views. It is recommended to set stop - losses for short - term long positions and partially build positions for the RU2601 - RU2609 spread [12][14] - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, supply is high, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [15] - In the case of pure benzene and styrene, the cost side shows a potential supply surplus. The BZN spread has room for upward repair, and styrene prices may stop falling stage - by - stage [19] - For polyethylene, the cost side supports the price, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [22] - For polypropylene, the cost side may face an expanding supply surplus, supply pressure is high, and it is in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory [25] - For PX, the load is high, downstream PTA has many short - term overhauls, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [28] - For PTA, the supply side may accumulate inventory slightly, demand is showing signs of weakness, and it is recommended to wait and see [29] - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and ports are accumulating inventory. It is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies [31] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Market Information Summaries Crude Oil - INE's main crude oil futures rose 11.00 yuan/barrel, a 2.52% increase, to 447.20 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also had price increases [9] Methanol - The price in Taicang decreased by 20 yuan, in Inner Mongolia increased by 10 yuan, and remained stable in southern Shandong. The 01 - contract of the futures market decreased by 7 yuan to 2261 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 19 [3] Urea - Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable. The 01 - contract of the futures market increased by 12 yuan to 1621 yuan, with a basis of - 91 [6] Rubber - Rubber prices rose due to the influence of Typhoon Fengshen on major production areas. As of October 16, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong increased by 18.70 percentage points week - on - week, and that of semi - steel tires increased by 23.50 percentage points week - on - week [12] PVC - The 01 - contract of PVC rose 20 yuan to 4719 yuan. The overall operating rate was 76.7%, a 5.9% decrease from the previous period. Factory and social inventories decreased [14] Pure Benzene and Styrene - The spot price of pure benzene decreased by 118 yuan/ton, and the futures price also decreased. The spot price of styrene increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the futures price increased by 100 yuan/ton [18] Polyethylene - The main - contract closing price of polyethylene rose 53 yuan/ton to 6936 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 25 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and inventories decreased [21] Polypropylene - The main - contract closing price of polypropylene rose 36 yuan/ton to 6619 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream operating rate decreased, and inventories decreased [23] PX - The 01 - contract of PX rose 118 yuan to 6450 yuan. The Asian and Chinese operating loads decreased. Some domestic and overseas devices were under maintenance [27] PTA - The 01 - contract of PTA rose 68 yuan to 4482 yuan. The operating load increased by 1.6%, and downstream load decreased slightly. Social inventory increased [28] Ethylene Glycol - The 01 - contract of ethylene glycol rose 47 yuan to 4051 yuan. The supply - side operating load increased, downstream load decreased slightly, and port inventory increased [30]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, Polypropylene, Styrene, PVC, Methanol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Urea, Caustic Soda, Glass: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Pure Benzene: Not rated in the table, but with analysis in the report [3] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: The symbol in the table is unclear [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows a mixed trend, with different products having different price trends and supply - demand situations. Some products are affected by factors such as inventory, cost, demand, and policies, and their short - term and medium - term trends vary [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose, with controllable enterprise inventories and stable offers. Downstream follow - up was okay, and the trading range was stable [2] - Polyethylene futures rose, but the market was waiting for news, with cost support weakening and supply pressure. Sellers mostly offered small discounts [2] - Polypropylene futures rose. Although the supply pressure decreased due to more upstream maintenance, the demand improvement in the peak season was limited, and the high - level inventory was slowly digested. The supply - demand contradiction may increase, and the price may remain low for a long time [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures prices rebounded above 5500 yuan/ton. The spot price in East China rebounded, and the low - level transactions in Shandong improved. The short - term price may rebound, but the high import volume in the medium term is the main pressure [3] - Styrene futures rose, but there were only expected device shutdowns. The inventory remained high, and the upward price momentum was limited [3] Polyester - PX and PTA rebounded with reduced positions. The short - term price may continue to rebound, mainly depending on oil prices. In the medium term, with the weakening demand and expected inventory accumulation, the strategy is mainly reverse arbitrage [5] - Ethylene glycol rebounded with increased positions. The short - term price has a rebound expectation, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure in the medium term, suggesting shorting at high prices [5] - Short fiber continued to be a bullish allocation. The new production capacity was limited, the inventory was decreasing, and the downstream备货 sentiment was improved [5] - Bottle chip demand weakened, with inventory accumulation and pressure on processing margins. The long - term pressure is over - capacity [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol fluctuated at a low level. The short - term coastal market may fluctuate within a range, and the price may be bullish in the medium - to - long term as the import supply pressure is expected to decrease [6] - Urea futures prices rose slightly. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly within a range, supported by the marginal improvement of supply - demand and coal prices [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed a fluctuating trend. The supply may increase, and it may operate at the bottom range due to weak domestic demand and potential export policy pressure [7] - Caustic soda fluctuated narrowly. The supply fluctuated slightly, and it is recommended to be cautious when shorting due to non - aluminum downstream restocking and a high basis [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fluctuated strongly. The supply was still high, and it is recommended to short at high prices after a rebound [8] - Glass fluctuated narrowly. The inventory continued to accumulate, and the downward range is expected to be limited. It is advisable to pay attention to selling out - of - the - money put options [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Polyolefins - The supply of PE is increasing steadily, with significant profit improvement, continuous increase in the operating rate, and limited planned maintenance. Overseas inventory clearance at the end of the year also brings impacts, highlighting long - term supply pressure. PP's valuation has been significantly repaired due to the sharp decline in propane and crude oil. Although there are more recent overhauls in PP, the new device commissioning pressure in October is large, and the demand side lacks bright performance. The supply - demand structure of polyolefins is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited. Overall, the macro - environment is pessimistic, and the prices of PP and PE face pressure [2]. Methanol - At the port, due to sanctions, some warehouses do not accept sanctioned vessels, increasing the willingness to hold spot goods. Coupled with supply - side disturbances, the port basis has strengthened significantly. Overseas production has declined, and some devices have stopped. In late October, attention should be paid to the expected supply reduction caused by overseas gas restrictions. Inland supply has a certain bottom - support for prices due to a relatively healthy inventory structure. The demand side is weak. Overall, the price may continue to fluctuate under the supply - demand game, and attention should be paid to the port de - stocking rhythm and the implementation effect of overseas gas - restriction expectations [4]. Benzene - Styrene - For pure benzene, although there are device overhauls, there are also new production capacity commissioning expectations, and the domestic supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level. The downstream demand support is limited, and the inventory in East China ports may continue to decline. The price drive is weak in October. For styrene, under the double pressure of inventory and industry profit, some devices are under overhaul, but new devices are about to be commissioned, and the overall supply will remain high. The demand side support is also limited, and the price drive is weak. In the short - term, the price is still under pressure [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply has shrunk compared to expectations due to unexpected overhauls or load reductions of some devices, while the demand has increased. However, overall, the supply - demand is still weak, and the price is in a weak oscillation. For PTA, the spot basis continues to weaken, but the downward space is limited. The absolute price is also in a weak oscillation. For short - fiber, the price is supported in the short - term, but the cost - side support is weak. For bottle - chips, it is likely to enter a seasonal inventory accumulation period, and it follows the cost - side fluctuations. For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is abundant, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in October, with the upper price limit under pressure [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the demand support from the aluminum industry is weak in the short - term, but there may be long - term demand support. The supply is increasing in the short - term, and the price is weak. For PVC, the supply - demand pressure is large, the fundamental contradiction is difficult to resolve, and the price is weak. The cost - side provides bottom support, and short - term short positions can stop profit [8]. Summary by Catalogs Polyolefins Price and Spread - L2601 closed at 6883 yuan/ton on October 21, up 4 yuan or 0.06% from the previous day. PP2601 closed at 6283 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.27%. The price difference between L2509 - 2601 decreased by 5.48%, and that of PP2509 - 2601 decreased by 24.71% [2]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory increased by 27.67% to 48.9 (unit unclear), and social inventory decreased by 0.04% to 54.5. PP enterprise inventory increased by 30.96% to 68.1 (unit unclear), and trader inventory increased by 39.48% to 26.1 [2]. Operating Rate - The PE device operating rate decreased by 2.61% to 81.8%, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.26% to 44.9%. The PP device operating rate increased by 0.6% to 78.2%, the powder operating rate increased by 5.4% to 39.3%, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 0.2% to 51.9 [2]. Methanol Price and Spread - MA2601 closed at 2268 yuan/ton on October 21, up 2 yuan or 0.09%. The basis of Taicang decreased by 50.00% to - 33 [4]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 6.33% to 36.09%, and port inventory decreased by 3.36% to 149.1 million tons [4]. Operating Rate - The domestic upstream operating rate decreased by 1.86% to 76.55%, and the overseas upstream operating rate increased by 2.28% to 73.7%. The downstream MTO device operating rate remained unchanged at 86.28% [4]. Benzene - Styrene Upstream Price and Spread - Brent crude oil (December) was at $61.32/barrel on October 21, up $0.31 or 0.5%. The price of pure benzene (Sinopec East China listed price) decreased by 3.5% to 5450 yuan/ton [6]. Styrene - Related Price and Spread - Styrene East China spot price was 6440 yuan/ton on October 21, up 70 yuan or 1.1%. The EB11 - EB12 spread increased by 81.9% [6]. Inventory - Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 10.0% to 0.90 million tons, and styrene inventory increased by 3.1% to 20.25 million tons [6]. Operating Rate - The Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased by 1.1% to 79.2%, and the domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 4.8% to 75.5% [6]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Price - Brent crude oil (December) was at $61.32/barrel on October 21, up $0.31 or 0.5%. CFR Japan naphtha was at $540/ton, up $3 or 0.6% [7]. PX - Related Price and Spread - CFR China PX was at $784/ton on October 21, up $1 or 0.1%. The PX - naphtha spread was $244/ton, down $2 or 0.8% [7]. PTA - Related Price and Spread - PTA East China spot price was 4320 yuan/ton on October 21, up 5 yuan or 0.1%. The PTA spot processing fee was 122 yuan/ton, up 1.8% [7]. MEG - MEG East China spot price was 4075 yuan/ton on October 21, down 25 yuan or 0.6%. MEG port inventory increased by 7.0% to 57.9 million tons [7]. Operating Rate - The Asian PX operating rate decreased by 2.4% to 78.0%, and the PTA operating rate decreased by 4.3% to 74.4% [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Price and Spread - Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price remained unchanged at 2560.0 yuan/ton. V2509 was at 5125.0 yuan/ton on October 21, down 10 yuan or 0.2% [8]. Overseas Quotation and Export Profit - The FOB East China port price of caustic soda was $380/ton on October 16, down $20 or - 5.0%. The export profit of PVC decreased by 81.5% to 19.0 yuan/ton [8]. Operating Rate - The caustic soda industry operating rate decreased by 3.9% to 85.5%, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 7.0% to 75.1% [8]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories decreased by 1.1% to 19.5, and PVC total social inventory decreased by 0.1% to 55.6 [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term drive is limited, with weak oscillations. Supply is expected to contract, but overall remains weak. Suggest to wait and see, focus on Brent crude oil support at $60/barrel, and conduct month - spread reverse arbitrage [1]. - PTA: Short - term drive is limited, with weak oscillations. Spot basis has weakened, but the downward space is limited. Suggest to wait and see, focus on Brent crude oil support at $60/barrel, and treat TA1 - 5 with rolling reverse arbitrage [1]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Supply is abundant, with expected inventory accumulation in October and high accumulation in November - December. Suggest to short EG01 at high prices, hold the seller of call option EG2601 - C - 4250, and conduct EG1 - 5 reverse arbitrage at high prices [1]. - Short - fiber: Supply is at a high level, and terminal demand in Q4 is expected to be weak. Prices are supported in the short - term due to low inventory. Suggest the same strategy as PTA for single - side trading, and shrink the processing margin when it is above 1000 in the range of 800 - 1100 [1]. - Bottle - chip: Entering the seasonal inventory accumulation period, prices fluctuate with the cost side. Suggest the same strategy as PTA for PR single - side trading, and expect the main - contract processing margin to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [1]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Overall supply and demand in October are expected to be loose, with weak price drive. Suggest BZ2603 to oscillate following styrene and oil prices [2]. - Styrene: Supply will remain high, and demand support is limited. Prices are still under pressure in the short - term. Suggest to short EB12 on price rebounds [2]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: Short - term supply is increasing, and demand support is weak, with prices tending to be weak. In the medium - to - long - term, there is demand support. Suggest to short in the short - term and track downstream restocking [3]. - PVC: Supply and demand pressure is high, and the contradiction is difficult to resolve. Cost provides bottom support. Suggest to stop short - selling and wait for changes in demand [3]. Methanol Industry - Methanol: Prices may continue to oscillate. Focus on overseas device stability, customs clearance efficiency of sanctioned vessels, and actual arrival. Pay attention to port inventory reduction and overseas gas - limiting expectations [4]. Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE and PP: Supply pressure is prominent in the medium - to - long - term, and demand lacks bright spots. The 01 - contract upside is limited. Prices are under pressure due to macro - environment, cost, and supply - demand factors [6]. 3. Summaries by Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (December) decreased by 0.5%, WTI crude oil (December) decreased slightly. CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged. Most upstream prices were stable or slightly decreased [1]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Most downstream polyester product prices decreased slightly, and cash flows showed different changes [1]. - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX remained unchanged, while PX spot price in RMB decreased by 1.2% [1]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: PTA spot price decreased by 0.6%, and futures prices also decreased slightly [1]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: MEG spot price decreased by 0.4%, and futures prices had minor changes [1]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: Asian and Chinese PX operating rates decreased, while PTA and MEG operating rates increased slightly [1]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased slightly, and most upstream prices remained stable [2]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased, and cash flows and spreads changed [2]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: Cash flows of most downstream products improved [2]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased [2]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: Operating rates of most products in the pure benzene and styrene industries decreased [2]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: Caustic soda prices decreased, PVC prices remained stable, and futures prices had minor changes [3]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: FOB quotes and export profits decreased [3]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: CFR quotes decreased slightly, and export profits decreased significantly [3]. - **Supply: Chlor - Alkali Operating Rates & Industry Profits**: Caustic soda and PVC operating rates decreased, and some profit indicators changed [3]. - **Demand: Downstream Operating Rates**: Some downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC changed [3]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda and PVC inventories decreased slightly [3]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices had minor changes, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [4]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventory increased, while port and social inventories decreased [4]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Domestic upstream operating rate decreased, and overseas upstream operating rate increased [4]. Polyolefin Industry - **Polyolefin Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices of LLDPE and PP increased slightly, and spot prices also had minor changes [6]. - **PE and PP Non - standard Prices**: Some non - standard prices of PE and PP decreased slightly [6]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased [6]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates changed slightly, and downstream weighted operating rates increased slightly [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish. A low - buying and high - selling range strategy is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to test OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. - For methanol, the peak - season demand has fallen short, and the pattern of high domestic inventory and weak reality remains. Due to the delay in the unloading of imported goods, the port pressure has eased. Future upward price drivers may come from the expectation of winter gas restrictions. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - For urea, the domestic market lacks effective positive factors, but the price is at a low level with low valuation. It is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [8]. - For rubber, the rubber price has stabilized in the short term. It is recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and enter and exit quickly. Partial position - building is suggested for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [15]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, with a poor export outlook. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium term [18][20]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the styrene price may stop falling in stages as the port inventory is being reduced significantly during the seasonal peak season [23]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain in low - level fluctuations as the long - term contradiction shifts to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy [26]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the cost - side oversupply pattern suppresses the market [29]. - For PX, there is currently a lack of driving factors, and PXN is difficult to expand actively. It is recommended to wait and see [30]. - For PTA, the supply is increasing slightly, and the demand shows signs of weakness. It is recommended to wait and see [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is expected to continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies [33]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 3.80 yuan/barrel, a 0.86% decline, at 435.80 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 2.00 yuan/ton, a 0.08% increase, at 2646.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 17.00 yuan/ton, a 0.55% decline, at 3079.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed that the arrival inventory increased by 1.16 million barrels to 212.97 million barrels, a 0.55% increase; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.53 million barrels to 89.14 million barrels, a 1.75% increase; diesel commercial inventory decreased by 0.10 million barrels to 101.21 million barrels, a 0.10% decrease; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 1.43 million barrels to 190.35 million barrels, a 0.76% increase [2]. - **Strategy View**: Maintain a low - buying and high - selling range strategy, but wait and see for now to test OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 3 yuan, while in Inner Mongolia it decreased by 27.5 yuan and in southern Shandong by 17.5 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 6 yuan, at 2266 yuan/ton, and the basis was +9. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 8, at - 26 [4]. - **Strategy View**: Due to port fees, the unloading of imported goods has been delayed, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply has decreased slightly, and coal prices have rebounded, reducing coal - to - methanol profits. Demand remains weak. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 2 yuan, at 1600 yuan, and the basis was - 70. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 5, at - 75 [7]. - **Strategy View**: The number of short - term faulty devices has increased, and the operating rate has decreased significantly. The cost support is expected to gradually strengthen. Demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price has been oscillating and recovering. Typhoon Fengshen is approaching, which will affect rubber - producing areas in Hainan, Yunnan, Vietnam, and Thailand. The long - side believes in factors such as limited rubber production increase and seasonal price increases, while the short - side is concerned about uncertain macro - expectations and weak demand [11][12]. - **Strategy View**: The rubber price has stabilized in the short term. It is recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and enter and exit quickly. Partial position - building is suggested for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [15]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract increased by 14 yuan, at 4702 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4600 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 102 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 305 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC decreased by 5.9% to 76.7%. The downstream operating rate decreased by 8.6% to 39.2%. Factory and social inventories decreased [17]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, with a poor export outlook. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium term [18][20]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side price of East China pure benzene increased by 124 yuan/ton to 5585 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 6450 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased by 1.73% to 71.88%, and the Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.54 million tons to 19.65 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate increased by 0.27% to 38.81% [22]. - **Strategy View**: The styrene price may stop falling in stages as the port inventory is being reduced significantly during the seasonal peak season [23]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price increased by 5 yuan/ton to 6879 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased by 0.11% to 82.45%. The production enterprise inventory increased by 4.09 million tons to 52.95 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.37 million tons to 5.03 million tons. The downstream average operating rate increased by 0.64% to 45% [25]. - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to remain in low - level fluctuations as the long - term contradiction shifts to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy [26]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price increased by 14 yuan/ton to 6565 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased by 0.76% to 77.27%. The production enterprise, trader, and port inventories all decreased. The downstream average operating rate increased by 0.04% to 51.8% [27][28]. - **Strategy View**: In the context of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the cost - side oversupply pattern suppresses the market [29]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 24 yuan, at 6268 yuan. The PX CFR decreased by 3 dollars, at 783 dollars. The PX load in China decreased by 2.5% to 84.9%, and the Asian load decreased by 1.9% to 78%. Some domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance. The PTA load increased by 1.6% to 76%. The inventory at the end of August increased by 1.9 million tons to 391.8 million tons [29]. - **Strategy View**: There is currently a lack of driving factors, and PXN is difficult to expand actively. It is recommended to wait and see [30]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 18 yuan, at 4384 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 25 yuan, at 4315 yuan. The PTA load increased by 1.6% to 76%. The downstream load decreased by 0.1% to 91.4%. The terminal load decreased. The social inventory in early October increased by 5.3 million tons to 216 million tons [30]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand shows signs of weakness. It is recommended to wait and see [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract remained unchanged, at 4003 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 15 yuan, at 4100 yuan. The supply - side load increased by 2.5% to 77.2%. The downstream load decreased by 0.1% to 91.4%. The terminal load decreased. The port inventory increased by 3.8 million tons to 57.9 million tons [32]. - **Strategy View**: The industry is expected to continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US delays the G7 plan to expand the use of frozen Russian assets, indicating an intention to reduce tensions before Trump meets Putin, leading to a rise in market risk appetite [17]. - Affected by news such as Sino - US negotiations, on October 20, the A - share market rose with shrinking volume. Currently, market liquidity is rapidly contracting, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Future trends depend on domestic and foreign policy changes [2]. - During the Fourth Plenary Session, there are relatively many policies. It is advisable to be cautious in the short - term. If the market risk preference fails to strengthen, the bond market will turn stronger [25]. - The cost of imported soybeans supports the soybean meal price, but the current supply - demand situation is weak, and sufficient soybean supply is expected in the fourth quarter. The soybean meal futures price is likely to remain volatile [4]. - In September, economic data continued to show structural differentiation. The overall terminal demand was weak, with real estate and infrastructure demand remaining sluggish and manufacturing showing resilience. High pig iron production will suppress the subsequent inventory reduction speed, limiting the upward space for steel prices [5]. - The continuous inventory reduction during the peak season supports the lithium carbonate price, but further upward momentum may depend on unexpected supply - side disruptions [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US government continues to be shut down. The gold price hit a new high, and overseas gold and silver ETF holdings increased, while the domestic market was weak. Gold is expected to fluctuate at a high level this week, and attention should be paid to the callback risk [13]. - Investment advice: The gold price will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the callback risk caused by long - position profit - taking [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and Australia signed a key minerals agreement, and the US Senate will "pause" the new round of sanctions against Russia. The US delays the G7 plan to expand the use of frozen Russian assets, indicating an intention to reduce tensions before Trump meets Putin, and market risk preference has recovered [15][16][17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to decline in the short - term [18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year - on - year. Affected by news such as Sino - US negotiations, on October 20, the A - share market rose with shrinking volume. Currently, market liquidity is rapidly contracting, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment [2][19]. - Investment advice: Allocate various stock indices evenly [21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The LPR quotation in October remained stable. China's economic data in September showed differentiation. The bond market fluctuated and declined today due to Trump's softened stance towards China, but market risk preference has not been strongly activated [22][23][24]. - Investment advice: Be cautious in short - term trading this week. If market risk preference fails to strengthen, look for opportunities to build long - term long positions at low prices [25]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On October 20, the steam coal price in the northern port market was strong. The downstream demand increased last week, and the coal price rose. After the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway maintenance ends, the supply of port spot will increase, and the coal price increase is expected to narrow this week [26]. - Investment advice: The coal price will remain strong in the short - term [26]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Fenix Resources' iron ore production in the third quarter increased significantly. The iron ore price continued to be weak and volatile. The terminal orders weakened, the steel mill inventory pressure increased, and the steel mill profit was compressed. It is expected that the pig iron production will decline in November [27]. - Investment advice: The potential for production cuts is approaching. The iron ore price will remain weak in the short - term, but the downward valuation space is limited [27]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of October 17, the inspection volume of US cotton was slow. In September, the export unit price of cotton products rebounded slightly month - on - month. China imported 100,000 tons of cotton and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn in September [28][29][30]. - Investment advice: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price has been resistant to decline recently. However, as the new cotton is listed, the hedging pressure will limit the upward space, and the downstream orders are insufficient. Attention should be paid to the new cotton listing, downstream orders, and Sino - US relations [31][32]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - As of October 17, the national port soybean inventory decreased, the soybean inventory of major oil mills increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unexecuted contracts decreased. In September, China imported 0 tons of soybeans from the US, and the Brazilian soybean planting rate reached 24% [34][35][36]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the weather in the Brazilian production area and Sino - US relations. The soybean meal futures price is likely to remain volatile [36]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From October 1 to 20, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased by 3.4% month - on - month. As of October 17, the domestic palm oil inventory increased slightly [37][38]. - Investment advice: The market lacks driving forces in the short - term and is expected to remain volatile. In the long - term, pay attention to the long - position opportunities of palm oil [39][40]. 2.6 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - From January to September, China's infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year. In the first three quarters, China's steel exports showed different trends, and the real estate investment continued to decline. The overall terminal demand was weak, and the high pig iron production limited the upward space for steel prices [41][42][44]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices in the short - term [46]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - In Xinjiang, jujubes in some areas are in the drying stage. The futures price of the main contract CJ601 fluctuated and closed down today. The price of jujubes in the distribution areas is stable, and merchants purchase goods as needed [47][48]. - Investment advice: Wait and see before the market logic becomes clear. Pay attention to the price game in the production area and downstream consumption [48]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - On October 20, the theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in different regions showed differentiation. In the future, the inventory pressure and production reduction expectations of starch may be mainly concentrated in the Northeast [49]. - Investment advice: The price difference between starch and corn futures is expected to recover after entering the delivery month. The price difference of 01 and 03 contracts is at a low level and is not expected to shrink further [49]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The domestic corn price is rising. Snowy weather and farmers' reluctance to sell have led to a decrease in downstream arrivals. The spot price is expected to decline, while the futures price may enter a volatile bottom - grinding period [50]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short - term. Pay attention to the implementation of wheat auction rumors [50]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - In September, China's polysilicon export volume decreased by 28.17% month - on - month. The spot price of polysilicon is expected to remain stable. The terminal demand has weakened marginally since late October, and the silicon wafer price is under pressure [51][52]. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the spot price will not decline in October. Consider long - position opportunities when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. Pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of PS2511 - PS2512 at around - 2000 yuan/ton [53]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In September, China's industrial silicon export volume increased by 7.73% year - on - year. Some silicon plants in the South are expected to reduce production in late October. The inventory is expected to be difficult to reduce in November and will be reduced by 15,000 tons in December [54][55]. - Investment advice: It is more cost - effective to go long on industrial silicon at low prices [55]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On October 17, the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $41.85/ton. In September, the import of lead concentrates increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. The export of lead - acid batteries decreased, and the import increased [55][56]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading. Pay attention to the medium - term positive spread opportunity for cross - market trading [56]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Vedanta's zinc concentrate production in the third quarter increased by 6%. In September, the export volume of galvanized sheets increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volume of zinc concentrates increased [57][58][60]. - Investment advice: Wait and see for single - side trading. Pay attention to the medium - term positive spread opportunity. Maintain a positive spread trading strategy for cross - market trading and take profits in batches at low prices [61]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In September, China's unforged nickel import volume increased significantly, especially from Russia. The short - term macro situation is still volatile. The global visible inventory has increased significantly, and the price is fluctuating above the cash cost. The nickel ore price is expected to rise in the fourth quarter [62]. - Investment advice: Allocation portfolios can consider long - position opportunities at low prices. Speculative portfolios can consider selling near - the - money put options and buying deep - out - of - the - money call options [63]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - In September, China's lithium ore import volume increased by 14.7% month - on - month. The first batch of lithium concentrate from the Bougouni lithium project was shipped. The inventory has been decreasing, which supports the price, but further upward momentum depends on supply - side disruptions [64][66]. - Investment advice: Use range - bound trading in the short - term. Consider short - position opportunities after the demand peaks this year. Pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of LC2511 - LC2601 and the positive spread opportunity of LC2601 against more distant contracts [67]. 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Peru's Las Bambas copper mine is being affected by illegal mining. In September, China's scrap copper import volume increased by 14.84% year - on - year [68][69]. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short - term. Consider long - position opportunities at low prices for single - side trading. Wait and see for spread trading [70]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Guangzhou Petrochemical's partial device maintenance has reduced the liquefied gas production. The East China liquefied gas price has declined due to factors such as fundamental imbalance and falling paper - futures prices [71][72]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [73]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - A Russian refinery was affected by a drone attack. The oil price is weak and volatile. Market risk preference supports the oil price, but concerns about supply surplus continue to put pressure on it [74]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain weak and volatile in the short - term [75]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price has been slightly stronger. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, and the spot trading is light. The PVC fundamentals remain weak, and the inventory is high [76][77][78]. - Investment advice: The PVC price is expected to remain weak and volatile in the short - term, and the downward space is limited [78]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - As of October 20, the styrene inventory in the East China main port increased. The styrene price declined, and the inventory is a key issue. The production profit has decreased, and the cost support is not obvious [79]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the negative feedback of pure benzene downstream products. The styrene industry needs a low - profit level to slow down the inventory accumulation in the main port [80]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - As of October 20, the asphalt factory and social inventories decreased. The BU futures price was weak last week, and the spot price continued to decline. The demand recovery is limited, and the weak international oil price may affect the asphalt price [81][82]. - Investment advice: The asphalt price will be volatile in the short - term [83]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of October 20, the domestic soda ash factory inventory increased slightly. The soda ash futures price rose and then fell, affected by the bearish sentiment in the glass market. The downstream demand is stable, and the inventory in the delivery warehouse is high [84]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling strategy at high prices for soda ash in the medium - term, and pay attention to the new capacity release [84]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On October 20, the float glass price in the Hubei market declined. The glass futures price continued to fall due to the failure of supply - reduction expectations and the cooling of macro - positive expectations [85]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short - term as the market is bearish, but the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the risk of short - selling is high [85].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are expected to be bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; treasury bonds should be kept under observation [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range - bound trading; glass is advised to be observed [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs; aluminum is advised to lay out long positions on dips after pullbacks; nickel is suggested to be observed or shorted on highs; tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range - bound trading [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to oscillate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations; the 01 contract of soda ash should be traded with a short - selling mindset [1]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, and PTA are expected to oscillate; apples and jujubes are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs and eggs are recommended to be shorted on highs; corn is expected to have wide - range oscillations; soybean meal is expected to have range - bound oscillations; oils are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as macroeconomic data, industry events, supply - demand relationships, and international policies. For example, in the macro - financial sector, important meetings and potential Fed rate cuts support the stock market, while in the bond market, the outcome of Sino - US negotiations is crucial. In the black building materials sector, supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal, rebar, etc. Each sector's analysis is based on a combination of multiple factors to guide investment decisions [5][7][8]. Summaries by Categories Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: Last week, A - share broad - based indices all had negative weekly returns, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indices having the largest declines. This week, the release of macro - economic data and important events will affect the market. With the approaching of important meetings and the potential Fed rate cuts, the market is expected to be supported. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Interest - rate bond yields declined across all tenors and varieties, and credit - bond yields also decreased. Overseas credit risks led to a decline in risk appetite, but the compound negative factors in the bond market have not been fundamentally resolved. It is advisable to take partial profits during risk - event shocks. The Sino - US negotiations at the end of the month will be the key to determining market risk appetite [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: During the National Day, supply was temporarily halted and is expected to gradually recover after the holiday. The supply recovery is relatively slow, and coking coal has long - position value. After the holiday, the first round of coke price increases started, supported by steel mills' demand [7][8]. - **Rebar**: Last Friday, rebar futures prices oscillated. The fundamental situation shows that the price is undervalued, and with the improvement of demand and the decline of production, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long around 3000 for the RB2601 contract [8]. - **Glass**: After the National Day, environmental protection and macro - policy expectations cooled down, and the market returned to the fundamental logic. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to observe and wait for a reversal to consider going long [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated greatly due to trade - related news. Although the price increase suppresses demand, the demand in the fourth quarter has room for improvement. The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs [11]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite in Guinea decreased, and the operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum changed. The demand in the peak season is weak, but the inventory of aluminum ingots is decreasing well. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips [13]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore is firm, but the supply may become looser. Refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron has limited upside. It is recommended to observe or short on highs [18]. - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production decreased in September, and the supply is expected to be more relaxed in the fourth quarter. The downstream consumption is weak, and it is recommended for range - bound trading [18]. - **Silver and Gold**: Due to the delay of the US PPI data and the risk of government shutdown, the safe - haven sentiment increased. With the expectation of rate cuts and concerns about the US economy, the prices of silver and gold are expected to be supported. It is recommended to trade cautiously and build positions after sufficient pullbacks [19][20]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed in the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: There are new maintenance plans in the short - term supply, and the demand is increasing. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed for the pressure at 2450 [23][24]. - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure, the inventory is high, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate, and the range of 6400 - 6700 is to be observed [24][25]. - **Rubber**: Overseas weather improvement pressures the raw material price, but the reduction of rubber arrivals supports the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the support at 14500 is to be observed [26][27]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate, and factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies should be focused on [28]. - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is increasing, and the inventory is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate [30]. - **Polyolefins**: The cost is affected by macro factors, the supply has an increasing expectation, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the L2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6800, and the PP2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6500 [30][31]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot trading is light, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply is in excess. The 01 contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the recent increase in seed cotton prices has led to a situation of grabbing cotton. However, due to the uncertainty between China and the US, the outlook is bearish [35]. - **PTA**: The international oil price is affected by geopolitical factors, the PTA spot price is low, and the supply - demand situation leads to a slowdown in inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 4350 - 4600 [34][35]. - **Apples**: The price of late - maturing Fuji apples shows a polarization, and good - quality apples are in high demand. The expected output this year is stable, but the quality has declined, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [36][37]. - **Jujubes**: The new - season jujubes in Xinjiang are about to be harvested, and the ordering progress in different regions varies. The market is in a state of waiting and seeing, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [37]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The supply in October is increasing, the weight of pigs is relatively high, and the entry of secondary fattening has weakened recently. In the medium to long term, the supply will remain high before the first half of next year. It is recommended to adjust short positions according to different contracts [39][40][41]. - **Eggs**: The current egg price is supported by improved storage conditions and increased procurement, but the post - holiday demand is weak. In the medium to long term, the supply growth rate is slowing down, but the capacity clearance still takes time. It is recommended to take partial profits on short positions and wait for spot guidance [42][43][44]. - **Corn**: Currently, it is the transition period between old and new crops. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the price is under seasonal pressure. In the medium to long term, the cost has support, and the demand is moderately weak. The 11 - contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is under pressure from harvest and slow exports, and the domestic soybean meal is affected by import expectations. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at 2900 for the M2601 contract [45][46]. - **Oils**: In the short term, the callback of oils is limited. The 01 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil should pay attention to the support levels of 8150 - 8200, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 respectively. It is recommended to go long after the callback [47][53].