Market Overview - Geopolitical risks are suppressing US stock market gains, with the S&P 500 experiencing its first two-week decline in seven months, while the Dow Jones halted its two-day rise. Goldman Sachs fell nearly 4%, leading the component stocks [2] - The semiconductor index dropped over 1%, with Intel's shares falling 17%, marking its largest decline in 17 months, while Nvidia rose over 1% for three consecutive days. Meta gained over 6% for the week, while Apple fell nearly 3%, marking its longest weekly decline since May 2022 [2] - The US dollar index fell for two consecutive weeks to a five-month low, dropping 1.8% for the week, the largest weekly decline in eight months. The offshore yuan rose over 100 points, breaking 6.95, reaching a two-year high [2] - Precious metals surged, with gold nearing $5,000 and silver surpassing $100 for the first time, both achieving their largest weekly gains since 2020. Copper rebounded over 3%, approaching record highs, while nickel rose over 4% [2] Industry News - The public fund performance benchmark new regulations have been implemented, requiring fund managers to reduce salaries if performance is consistently below benchmarks, with a one-year transition period set [4][17] - The storage market is experiencing significant price increases, with Samsung Electronics reportedly raising NAND prices by over 100% in Q1, following a 70% increase in DRAM prices [11][26] - The commercial aerospace and photovoltaic sectors are witnessing explosive growth, with lithium carbonate surpassing 180,000 yuan per ton, and silver reaching a historical high of 25,000 yuan [3] - The demand for silver is being driven by industrial needs and Chinese buying, as it is increasingly viewed as a critical material rather than a speculative asset [22] Company Updates - Zhongwei Company expects a net profit growth of approximately 28.74% to 34.93% by 2025, driven by a revenue increase of over 36% to 12.385 billion yuan, primarily from etching and thin-film equipment sales [30] - Chip manufacturer Chipone expects a narrowing of annual losses by 25% and a revenue increase of 36%, with AI computing driving a doubling of orders [30] - OpenAI is considering a new revenue-sharing model where it may take a cut from profits generated using its AI technology, which has sparked significant debate [33]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a "steady rise" from January 19 to 23, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.84% to reach 4100 points, marking a new high since 2015 [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index rose by 1.11% and 2.62%, respectively, indicating a trend of "moderate index growth and accelerated capital inflow" [2] - The core driving force behind this market rally is identified as a combination of "policy support, capital inflow, and industrial trends" [2] Sector Performance - Cyclical and technology stocks acted as "dual drivers," with sectors such as building materials, steel, and chemicals seeing gains of over 5% [2] - Commercial aerospace concept stocks led the market due to favorable industry developments, while banking and non-bank financial sectors experienced declines [2] Policy and Regulation - The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Asset Management Association of China jointly released performance benchmark guidelines aimed at addressing issues like "style drift" and "fund blind boxes," marking the beginning of a reshaping of the public fund ecosystem [2] Investment Trends - Institutional research focused on three main areas: commercial aerospace, metal mining, and storage chips, with significant interest in companies like Daikin Heavy Industries and Naipu Mining [3] - The MSCI Metals and Mining Index has surged nearly 90% year-to-date, driven by soaring global metal demand and tightening supply of key minerals [3] - Gold prices are projected to rise further, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a price of $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026, indicating an 8% upside from current levels [3] Commercial Aerospace Developments - The commercial aerospace sector saw a resurgence after a volatile January, with significant domestic and international positive developments [4] - The financing total for the industry is expected to reach 18.6 billion yuan in 2025, a 32% year-on-year increase, as multiple companies initiate their IPO processes [4] - The global satellite count exceeds 12,000, with China's commercial aerospace sector aiming to capture technological transformation opportunities through "new space infrastructure" [4] Market Outlook - Institutions generally expect a "slow bull" market to continue, although caution is advised regarding short-term valuation correction risks [4] - Analysts predict that the A-share market will maintain a trend of oscillating upward, with accelerated sector rotation focusing on cyclical recovery and hard technology growth [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant shift of investors from foreign exchange and sovereign bond markets to the metal market, leading to a rise in copper prices to around $13,000 per ton [1] - Copper prices have seen a maximum increase of 1.8%, while nickel and tin prices have surged over 3% [1] - The geopolitical reshaping by U.S. President Donald Trump and renewed criticism of the Federal Reserve are driving the market towards safe-haven assets, which has recently extended its influence to base metals [1] Group 2 - Factors contributing to the rise in copper prices include disruptions in supply from major copper mines, a surge in demand driven by electrification processes, and a spike in copper export volumes ahead of potential U.S. tariffs [1] - Since mid-last year, copper prices have been on a strong upward trend due to these supply and demand dynamics [1]

Group 1 - The overall inventory of copper increased by 3,450 tons, reaching a total of 171,700 tons, which is a 2.05% increase [1][4] - Aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 507,275 tons, reflecting a 0.39% decline [1][5] - Zinc inventory saw a reduction of 200 tons, bringing the total down to 111,500 tons, a decrease of 0.18% [1][9] Group 2 - The registered warehouse stocks for copper increased by 3.53% to 125,425 tons, while the canceled warehouse stocks decreased by 1.75% to 46,275 tons [2] - Aluminum registered stocks remained unchanged at 482,475 tons, but canceled stocks decreased by 7.46% to 24,800 tons [2] - Tin inventory increased by 40 tons to 7,195 tons, marking a 0.56% rise [1][11]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a significant shift from being viewed as "poor man's gold" to being recognized as a critical material with essential industrial applications, driven by a persistent supply-demand gap since 2021 [2][4][41]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Since 2021, the global silver market has faced a physical supply-demand gap, primarily due to rapid demand growth in key industries such as photovoltaics and electrification, while supply has struggled to keep pace [2][38]. - Over 70% of global silver production comes from by-products of other metals, making the supply response to price signals slow and dependent on the investment cycles of copper, lead, and zinc [3][33]. - The average annual supply-demand gap for silver from 2021 to 2024 is estimated to be around 150-200 million ounces, totaling nearly 800 million ounces [38]. Group 2: Industrial Demand Growth - In 2024, global silver demand is projected to reach 1.164 billion ounces (approximately 36,200 tons), with industrial demand accounting for about 58% of this total [10]. - The photovoltaic sector is a key driver of silver demand, with actual demand expected to reach 198 million ounces in 2024, a 1.6-fold increase from 2019, despite a decrease in silver usage per watt [22]. - The electric vehicle and AI infrastructure sectors are also contributing to silver demand, with the average silver usage in electric vehicles increasing from 15-20 grams for traditional cars to 30-40 grams for new energy vehicles [26]. Group 3: Price Dynamics and Market Perception - Historically, silver has been priced in relation to gold, with the gold-silver ratio fluctuating significantly, reaching levels above 90 during the pandemic [14][15]. - The current market still tends to price silver using gold's financial logic, despite silver's unique industrial applications and growing demand [16][42]. - Silver's identity is evolving as it transitions from a widely used industrial metal to a critical material locked into key industries, making it less susceptible to price fluctuations [18][41].

Group 1 - The environmental safety inspection and remediation of heavy metal pollution in Hechi City has accelerated, with all immediate rectifications completed and long-term remediation plans established for remaining pollution sources [1][2] - The city is implementing a targeted approach to address "small, scattered, and chaotic" enterprises by categorizing them into three groups: those to be eliminated, those to be restructured, and those to be upgraded [2] - The cleanup of historically problematic enterprises has been largely completed, and tailings pond management is progressing simultaneously [1][2] Group 2 - The mineral rights integration work in Hechi City has achieved significant progress, with a focus on consolidating 41 mining rights and 37 exploration rights that have unreasonable development layouts [3] - A total of 62 metal mining rights and 60 exploration rights have been identified, supporting leading enterprises capable of comprehensive mining operations to acquire these rights through market-based mergers and acquisitions [3] - Recent projects signed at the Guangxi Key Metal Industry Conference, with a total investment of 162.2 billion yuan, are underway, including land leveling and initial investment activities [3]

数据显示，"十四五"期间，中国五矿高质量完成各项规划指标和重点任务，巩固集资源勘探、设计建 设、开发运营、冶炼加工、贸易物流、科技产业、金融资本于一体的全产业链发展优势，年均利润总额 较"十三五"时期增长93.7%，连续5年获得央企负责人经营业绩考核A级，新增国家级专精特新"小巨 人"企业25家、制造业单项冠军企业13家。 2026年，中国五矿将全面建强建优管理管控体系，推动质的有效提升和量的合理增长；以科技创新为关 键，全力推进科技创新与产业创新深度融合；锚定智能化、绿色化、融合化发展方向，加快推进现代化 产业体系建设；以实施新一轮深化国资国企改革为抓手，推进治理体系和治理能力现代化。(经济日报 记者韩秉志) 记者从中国五矿获悉，2025年，该公司持续强化经营管控体系，生产经营稳中有进，经营业绩大幅增 长，利润总额同比增长10.2%，重点矿产品产量同比增长67%，金属矿业核心功能显著增强。 2025年，中国五矿以"聚焦科技研发平台建设、聚焦平台研发能级提升、聚焦重大技术难题攻关、聚焦 科技成果转化产业化、聚焦科技人才队伍建设"推动科技创新，构建"科技委+专业委+科研院所+主责单 位"四级联动的科技创新管理体 ...

Group 1 - The concept of "tightening easing" is introduced, indicating that the current interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve is nearing its end, despite not immediately signaling rate hikes [1] - The emphasis on "data dependence" and "risk management" by Federal Reserve members suggests that while rates are close to neutral, inflation risks remain tilted upwards [1][3] - The potential for a significant economic impact from Trump's proposed tax cuts and spending increases is highlighted, with a focus on stimulating investment and consumption [6][10] Group 2 - Historical context is provided regarding Reaganomics, which successfully reduced inflation and increased GDP growth in the 1980s, suggesting a possible revival of similar policies under Trump [3][8] - The current market environment indicates that U.S. stocks have a solid foundation for continued growth, supported by expected economic benefits from inflation decline and interest rate cuts [10] - Concerns about the sustainability of U.S. sovereign debt are raised, particularly in light of high existing debt levels and the absence of a robust industrial base [8][11] Group 3 - The relationship between the dollar and gold is discussed, noting that while traditionally they are inversely correlated, current market dynamics may lead to a more complex interaction [14][15] - Predictions for gold prices are optimistic, with expectations of reaching $5000 per ounce driven by geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar [15] - The potential for volatility in the credit and sovereign debt markets is acknowledged, but the stability of balance sheets across major economies is expected to mitigate severe market shocks [16]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-01-22 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 50.2 | 50.0 | 52.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M1:同比 | % | 3.8 | 7.2 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Macro and Financial Futures** - The current macro - environment features global geopolitical turmoil and domestic structural differentiation with targeted policies for stable growth. The old US - led global system is ending, and the global financial market is in a risk - averse stage. China's economy is expected to achieve a GDP growth target of 4.5% - 5% in 2026, and the government is working to boost domestic demand [1]. - The RMB exchange rate has a solid basis for appreciation due to China's export resilience and increased corporate willingness to settle foreign exchange. However, its appreciation process will be relatively moderate [2][3]. - The stock index is in an adjustment stage in the short - term, with a continued structural market. In the long - term, the logic of loose liquidity driving the market remains positive [4]. - The bond market is not recommended for short - term chasing as the upside is limited despite improved market sentiment [5]. - The container shipping European route futures are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with near - month contracts weak and far - month contracts relatively resistant to decline [6][7][8]. - **Commodities** - Lithium carbonate is likely to show "off - season not off" characteristics in the spot market, and it is recommended to go long on dips before early February in the futures market [11][12]. - Industrial silicon is expected to have an upward - biased price due to increased demand for export and supply - side disturbances. Polysilicon is in a de - stocking phase with no clear upward driver [12][13]. - Copper prices continue to adjust with limited upward momentum. Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly in the long - term, while alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strong [15][17][19]. - Zinc prices are likely to be weak and volatile in the short - term. Nickel - stainless steel is expected to be strong with some fundamental support. Tin prices may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation. Lead prices are expected to oscillate within a narrow range [19][20][22]. - For oilseeds, the external soybean market is weak and volatile, while domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal have different outlooks. For oils, the sector is likely to be strong in the short - term, with palm oil being the strongest [24][25][26]. - High - sulfur fuel oil has a poor fundamental situation but is supported by the Iran issue. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak cracking spread. Asphalt is expected to oscillate with limited upside and downside [30][31][33]. - Precious metals are in an upward - biased pattern but may face short - term correction pressure. Gold and silver can be considered for mid - term long positions on dips [34][35]. - **Chemicals** - Pulp and offset paper markets are relatively bearish, and it is recommended to wait and see. LPG shows an internal - external divergence. PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips have different supply - demand situations, and it is recommended to go long on PX and short on polysilicon [36][39][41]. - Methanol is affected by geopolitical factors, and it is recommended to wait and see. PP is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation, and PE is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand [45][47][49]. - Pure benzene and styrene have improved supply - demand situations. Rubber is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to go long with a light position. Urea is recommended to hold long positions [50][52][56]. - Soda ash is in a situation of increasing supply, and glass is in a supply - demand weak pattern. Propylene prices are driven by cost and are expected to be affected by geopolitical and device changes [58][59][60]. - **Black Metals** - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are in a low - level oscillation. Iron ore prices have fallen but have support below. Coking coal and coke prices are under pressure in the long - term. Ferroalloys are expected to oscillate at the bottom [61][62][63]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities** - Hog prices are expected to decline slightly, and the supply - demand situation is still unbalanced. Cotton prices are expected to oscillate. Sugar prices are short - term weak. Rubber is expected to oscillate widely. Apples' future performance depends on demand. Jujubes are in a low - level oscillation. Logs are recommended for range - bound operations and long positions on dips [65][67][76] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro** - **Market Information**: Trump's statements on Greenland, central bank's payment settlement work meeting, and other geopolitical and economic events [1]. - **Core Judgments**: The global geopolitical situation affects the financial market, and China focuses on stable growth and boosting domestic demand [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate** - **Market Review**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar declined slightly. - **Core Logic**: China's export and corporate behavior support the RMB's appreciation, and the process is affected by the US dollar index and central bank policies [2][3]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling purchase strategy [3][4]. - **Stock Index** - **Market Review**: The stock index showed a differentiated performance, and the trading volume decreased. - **Core Logic**: Affected by geopolitical risks, the market is in an adjustment stage with a structural market [4]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Wait for short - term callbacks to increase positions [4]. - **Bond** - **Market Review**: The bond market showed a differentiated performance, and the money market was loose. - **Core Logic**: The bond market follows the stock market, and the upside is limited [5]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short - term [5]. - **Container Shipping European Route** - **Market Review**: The futures market showed a "near - weak, far - strong" pattern. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a game between weak current demand and long - term detour cost support [6][7]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Trend traders can wait or operate in a narrow range [8]. Commodities - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Review**: The futures price increased, and the trading volume decreased. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is general, and the prices of upstream and downstream products are rising [11]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Go long on dips before early February and reduce positions before the Spring Festival [11][12]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures rose slightly, and polysilicon futures fell. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market of industrial silicon is general, and the photovoltaic industry spot market is weak [12][13]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Go long on industrial silicon and short on polysilicon, and reduce positions before the Spring Festival [13][14]. - **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper** - **Market Review**: Copper prices showed different trends in different markets. - **Industry Information**: Warehouse receipts and inventory changes, and Rio Tinto's production increase [15][16]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Do not build new positions above 100,000, hold long positions in the 90,000 - 95,000 range, and adjust positions flexibly in the 95,000 - 100,000 range [17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices oscillated, and alumina and cast aluminum alloy prices changed slightly [17]. - **Industry Information**: The spot market of electrolytic aluminum improved slightly [17]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Aluminum is expected to be oscillatory and strong, alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strong [18][19]. - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: Zinc prices showed a weak oscillation. - **Core Logic**: The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is cold [19]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Weakly oscillate, and aggressive investors can try short - selling [19][20]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: Nickel and stainless steel prices rose. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market prices and inventory changes [20]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Oscillate strongly, and pay attention to the supply and demand situation [20][21]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: Tin prices were volatile. - **Core Logic**: The supply is affected, and the demand is in the off - season [22]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Be cautious when entering the market due to high volatility [22]. - **Lead** - **Market Review**: Lead prices oscillated in a narrow range. - **Core Logic**: The supply and demand are in a weak pattern [22]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Oscillate, and sell options to collect premiums [22][23]. - **Oils and Feeds** - **Oilseeds** - **Market Review**: The external soybean market rebounded, and the domestic market was weak. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply and demand of imported soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are different [24][25]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Exit the M3 - 5 long - short spread, and hold a small short position in rapeseed meal [25][26]. - **Oils** - **Market Review**: The oils market continued to strengthen. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply and demand of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil have different characteristics [26][27]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: The oils sector is strong in the short - term, and pay attention to the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [27][28]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: The fuel oil futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil have different situations [30][31]. - **Core Logic**: High - sulfur fuel oil has a poor foundation, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak cracking spread [30][31]. - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: The asphalt market price decreased slightly. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand and inventory changes [31][32]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by geopolitics, the asphalt market is expected to oscillate [32][33]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Pay attention to long - short spreads, basis, and cracking long - positions [33]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver** - **Market Review**: Gold prices first rose and then fell, and silver prices were weaker [34]. - **Trading Logic**: Pay attention to geopolitical events, Fed policies, and other factors [35]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: The precious metals are in an upward - biased pattern, and consider long positions on dips [35]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper** - **Market Review**: The pulp and offset paper futures prices oscillated. - **Industry Performance**: The port inventory of pulp increased, and the downstream demand was weak [36]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Wait and see, and consider long positions in offset paper at low prices [36]. - **LPG** - **Market Review**: The LPG futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand and inventory changes [36][37]. - **Core Logic**: The internal and external markets diverge, and pay attention to geopolitical and device changes [37][38]. - **PTA - PX** - **Market Review**: The PX and PTA futures prices changed. - **Industry Performance**: The supply, demand, and inventory of PX and PTA are different [39][40]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand situation of PTA and PX is complex, and the long - term pattern is good [40][41]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Go long on PX and PTA on dips [41]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips** - **Market Review**: The ethylene glycol futures price changed. - **Industry Performance**: The supply, demand, and inventory of ethylene glycol and bottle chips [41][42][43]. - **Core Logic**: The demand is under pressure, and the long - term pattern is bearish [43][44]. - **Methanol** - **Market Review**: The methanol futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory decreased, and the downstream profit was affected [45]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by geopolitics, the operation is difficult [45][46]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Wait and see [46]. - **PP** - **Market Review**: The PP futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand and inventory changes [46][47]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term supply - demand pattern is improved, but the long - term is uncertain [47][48]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Oscillate widely [48]. - **PE** - **Market Review**: The PE futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decrease [48][49]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand pattern is unfavorable [49]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene** - **Market Review**: The pure benzene and styrene futures prices increased. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory and supply - demand changes [50][51][52]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand situation of pure benzene and styrene is improved [51][52]. - **Rubber** - **Market Review**: The rubber futures prices oscillated. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory and supply - demand changes [52][53][54]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by macro and supply - demand factors, the price oscillates widely [55][56]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Go long with a light position and pay attention to spreads [56]. - **Urea** - **Market Review**: The urea futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory decreased, and the market sentiment changed [56][57]. - **Core Logic**: The supply is excessive, and the price is affected by policies [57]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Hold long positions [57]. - **Glass - Soda Ash** - **Soda Ash** - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures price decreased. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory decreased, and the supply is expected to increase [58]. - **Core Logic**: The supply is excessive, and the price is under pressure [58]. - **Glass** - **Market Review**: The glass futures price decreased. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory decreased, but the demand is weak [59]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand is weak, and the price has no trend [59]. - **Propylene** - **Market Review**: The propylene futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand and inventory changes [59][60]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by cost and geopolitics, the supply - demand is balanced [60]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Pay attention to geopolitical and device changes [60]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils** - **Market Review**: The prices oscillated, and the trading volume was low. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand is neutral, and the price is affected by raw materials [61]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: The price will oscillate in a certain range [61]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Review**: The iron ore price continued to fall. - **Core Logic**: The previous high valuation is being adjusted, but there is support below [62]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Review**: The prices oscillated. - **Core Logic**: The supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure in the long - term [63]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Market Review**: The ferroalloys prices oscillated. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand is weak, and the price is supported by cost [63]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Oscillate at the bottom [64]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs** - **Market Review**: The hog futures price decreased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply - demand is unbalanced, and the price is under pressure [65][66]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Pay attention to pre - festival stocking demand [67]. - **Cotton** - **Market Review**: The cotton futures price oscillated. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory increased, and the supply - demand situation is complex [67]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Oscillate and pay attention to downstream imports and orders [68].