Report Title - "Ribbed Bar & Hot-Rolled Coil Weekly Report" [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Macro sentiment fluctuates, leading to wide fluctuations in steel prices [3] - Steel demand is gradually reaching its peak, and the de-stocking of steel mills is slowing down, intensifying the negative feedback pressure. Future domestic policy stimulus should be continuously monitored [5] Summary by Directory 1. Macro Environment Overseas Macro - Trump's core demands, including manufacturing decline and reduced fiscal spending, are contradictory, leading to inconsistent views that will damage the US dollar's credit. The intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran has caused a sharp rise in oil prices, which is negative for US inflation data and strengthens the risk of a hard landing. However, energy commodity prices are supported [5][9] Domestic Macro - The Politburo meeting ended without any unexpected policies. China will enter a policy window period [5][8] - The expectation of central government leveraging has been falsified [6] 2. Ribbed Bar Fundamentals Basis and Spread - Last week, the spot price of Shanghai ribbed bar was 3090 (+10) yuan/ton, and the main futures price was 2992 (+23) yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 98 (-13) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 7 (+6) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the spread reversal arbitrage opportunities in the off - season [14][18] Demand - New home sales remain at a low level, and market confidence is still weak. Second - hand home sales remain high, indicating the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area remains low. With the arrival of the off - season, demand shows a seasonal decline [19][22][23] Inventory - The de - stocking of steel mill inventories is slowing down, and there is a need to be vigilant about future upstream active de - stocking [25][27] Production Profit - The spot profit of ribbed bar last week was 233 (+49) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 312 (+8) yuan/ton. The valley - electricity profit of East China ribbed bar was - 48 (-8) yuan/ton. There is still room for compression in the disk profit [29][33] 3. Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamentals Basis and Spread - Last week, the spot price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3200 (+20) yuan/ton, and the main futures price was 3116 (+34) yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 84 (-14) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 9 (+7) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the spread reversal arbitrage opportunities in the off - season [35][39] Demand - The US has imposed tariffs on steel household appliances, and the production of white goods has entered the seasonal off - season, leading to a sequential decline in hot - rolled coil demand. The pace of export rush has slowed down, and steel port departures have decreased [40][43] Inventory - Demand has weakened sequentially, and inventories have slightly accumulated. Steel mills maintain high production levels [47][48] Production Profit - The spot profit of hot - rolled coil last week was 159 (+58) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 286 (+19) yuan/ton. There is still room for compression in the disk profit [50][53] 4. Variety Spread Structure - The report presents historical data on various variety spreads such as Shanghai cold - hot spread, Shanghai coil - ribbed bar spread, Shanghai medium - plate hot - rolled coil spread, etc., but no specific analysis or forecast is provided [54] 5. Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report shows the seasonal data of cold - rolled coil and medium - plate inventory, production, and apparent consumption, but no specific analysis or forecast is provided [63][64]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 2986 | 5 | 0.17% | -5 | -0.17% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3102 | 9 | 0.29% | -6 | -0.19% | | | 螺纹钢现货价格（HRB400E 20mm，上海） | 元/吨 | 3100 | 10 | 0.32% | -10 | -0.32% | | | 热轧板卷现货价格（Q235 4.75mm，上海） | 元/吨 | 3200 | 10 | 0.31% | 0 | 0 | | | 螺纹钢主力基差 | 元/吨 | 114 | | 5 | | -5 | | | 热轧卷板主力基差 | 元/吨 | 98 | | 1 | | 6 | | | 螺纹钢期货10-1价差 | 元/吨 | 8 | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 18 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 产业格局弱稳，钢矿低位震荡 核心观点 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 8 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.13%日涨幅，量增仓缩。现阶段， 螺纹供需格局表现不佳，淡季钢价承压运行，相对利好则是现实矛盾不 大，库存维持低位，基本面弱稳局面下预计钢价延续低位震荡运行态 势，关注需求变化情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价低位震荡，录得 0.32%日涨幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，热卷供需格局未好 ...

【重点关注】 ·中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦举行中美就落实两国元首通话共识及日内瓦会谈共识达成框架 ·以色列伊朗发动新一轮袭击打击对方军事、能源设施 ·中办、国办发文进一步保障和改善民生提出全面取消就业地参保户籍限制、合理提高最低工资标准等 多项举措 ·国务院常务会议部署中国（上海）自由贸易试验区试点措施复制推广工作听取构建房地产发展新模式 和推进好房子建设有关情况汇报 ·5月份CPI环比下降0.2% PPI环比下降0.4% ·5月金融数据出炉："活钱"增多M1增速明显上升前五个月新增社融超18万亿元 ·多家车企宣布对供应商"60天付款" 共同促进供应链体系健康发展 ·市场监管总局发文加强直播电商监管强化直播间运营者责任不得作虚假或者引人误解的商业宣传 ·铸造铝合金期货上市交易 【国内要闻】 ·国务院总理李强6月13日主持召开国务院常务会议，部署中国（上海）自由贸易试验区试点措施复制推 广工作，听取构建房地产发展新模式和推进好房子建设有关情况汇报，审议通过《关于进一步完善信用 修复制度的实施方案》，研究优化药品和耗材集采有关举措。会议听取构建房地产发展新模式和推 进"好房子"建设有关情况汇报，并作出一系 ...

Core Viewpoint - The event in Zhangjiagang aims to enhance collaboration between universities and enterprises, fostering a new blueprint for talent integration and industrial development [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Government-Enterprise Alliance Cooperation Conference gathered 137 universities and nearly 200 local enterprises to discuss talent integration [1]. - The event is part of a six-year initiative to strengthen partnerships with over 200 universities, attracting more than 100,000 graduates to the city [4]. Group 2: Talent Development Initiatives - Zhangjiagang is committed to building a "talent-friendly" and "employment-friendly" city, implementing a "1+1+N" talent policy system and launching a talent fund with a total scale of 1.5 billion yuan [3][4]. - The city has introduced three major talent plans focusing on higher education graduates, artificial intelligence, and semiconductor industries [3]. Group 3: Success Stories - The city has seen a significant increase in talent, with a total of over 460,000 individuals, including 45,000 high-level talents and 132,800 skilled workers [4]. - A success story highlighted includes a graduate who transitioned from research to production, winning national accolades and advancing to a mid-level management position [4]. Group 4: Regional Collaboration - The event also featured a cross-regional cooperation agreement between employment service centers from Yunnan, Hubei, and Henan provinces and Zhangjiagang's human resources department to expand talent recruitment efforts [5].

热轧卷板周度数据（20250613） | 黑色金属研究员 涂伟华 | 环比变化 | 上月末值 | 本月变化 | 同期值 | 同期变化 | 本周值 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5.10 | 327.65 | 周度产量 | 324.65 | -4.10 | 319.55 | -3.00 | 供给 | 1.05 | 高炉产能利用率（%） | 90.58 | -0.07 | 90.69 | -0.11 | 89.53 | | 表观需求量 | 319.88 | -1.04 | 326.93 | -7.05 | 328.67 | -8.79 | 需求 | 0.49 | 86.01 | 2.48 | 冷轧卷板周产量 | 88.49 | -0.27 | 88.00 | | 4.77 | 332.81 | 12.60 | 413.83 | 总库存 | 345.41 | -68.42 | 0.18 | 75.02 | 1.51 | 89 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall operation of industrial bond - issuing entities was under pressure in 2024, with differentiated industry performance. The total operating revenue and net profit of industrial bond entities decreased year - on - year, and the proportion of loss - making enterprises increased. In 2025Q1, the overall operating revenue of industrial bond entities decreased year - on - year, while the net profit remained flat. [2][3] - The economic fundamentals are expected to continue the characteristics of domestic demand support, external demand pressure, and policy escort this year. Attention should be paid to the improvement of the fundamentals of entities under the influence of pro - growth policies. [2][13] - For the real estate industry, it is still in the bottom - building stage. Attention can be paid to the income - mining opportunities of central and state - owned enterprise real estate bonds with an implied rating of AA and above within 1 - 2 years. [4] - For the coal industry, there is downward pressure on the industry's prosperity. Short - term medium - and high - grade varieties can be focused on, and institutions with higher income requirements can appropriately invest in 1 - 2y varieties of coal enterprises with an implied rating of AA. [5] - For the steel industry, the problem of over - supply is still serious. Caution should be exercised when investing in lower - quality entities, and 1 - 2yAA + varieties can be focused on. [6] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. How Did the Annual Reports and Q1 Reports of Each Industry Perform? 3.1.1. Overall Situation Analysis: The Overall Profitability Declined - In 2024, the total operating revenue and net profit of industrial bond entities decreased year - on - year, and the proportion of loss - making enterprises increased from 18% in 2023 to 21% in 2024. [13][14] - In 2025Q1, the overall operating revenue of industrial bond entities decreased by 2% year - on - year, while the net profit remained flat. [15] 3.1.2. Industry Performance: A Minority of Industries Had Positive Revenue and Net Profit Growth, and Most Industries Had Positive Growth in Operating Net Cash Flow - In 2024, about one - third of industries had positive revenue growth, and about 40% of industries had positive net profit growth. Nearly half of the industries had an increase in asset - liability ratio, and about 60% of industries had positive growth in operating net cash flow. [3] - Industries with revenue growth of over 5% in 2024 included non - ferrous metals, electronics, etc.; industries with a decline of over 5% included coal, steel, etc. [20] 3.1.3. Situations of Continuously Loss - making and Turnaround Entities - There were 79 bond - issuing industrial entities with net profit losses for 3 consecutive years or more, mainly distributed in transportation, real estate, etc. [36] - There were 20 bond - issuing industrial entities that had net profit losses for 2 consecutive years or more and turned profitable in 2024, mainly in public utilities, social services, etc. [39] 3.2. Financial Analysis of Key Industries: Real Estate, Coal, and Steel 3.2.1. Real Estate Industry: The Industry Is Still in the Bottom - building Stage, and Attention Should Be Paid to the Investment Opportunities of Central and State - owned Enterprises within 1 - 2 Years - **Fundamentals**: Pro - real - estate policies have been actively implemented, and the effect of destocking policies is gradually emerging, but the industry's prosperity is still low. [41] - **Financial Indicator Performance**: The profitability is under continuous pressure, the operating net cash flow is stable, the gaps in investment and financing net cash flows are narrowing, the median asset - liability ratio has decreased slightly, and the short - term solvency has declined. [4][50][51] - **Investment Strategy**: Attention can be paid to the income - mining opportunities of central and state - owned enterprise real estate bonds with an implied rating of AA and above within 1 - 2 years. Some 1 - year central and state - owned enterprise real estate bonds with an implied rating of AA and AA + have yields ranging from 2.2% to 2.7%. [4][61] 3.2.2. Coal Industry: There Is Downward Pressure on the Industry's Prosperity, and Attention Should Be Continuously Paid. Currently, Appropriate Investment in Lower - Grade Entities Can Be Made - **Fundamentals**: Since last year, there has been downward pressure on the coal industry's prosperity. Supply is sufficient but demand is weak, and coal prices have fluctuated downward. There may still be some downward pressure on coal prices this year. [5][63] - **Financial Indicator Performance**: The overall profitability has declined, the operating net cash flow has shrunk, the gap in investment cash flow has widened, the gap in financing cash flow has narrowed, the median asset - liability ratio has decreased, and the short - term solvency has declined. [5][68][71] - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term medium - and high - grade varieties can be focused on. Institutions with higher income requirements can appropriately invest in 1 - 2y varieties of coal enterprises with an implied rating of AA, and medium - and high - grade entities can extend the duration to 3y. [5][77] 3.2.3. Steel Industry: The Problem of Over - Supply in the Industry Is Still Serious. Caution Should Be Exercised When Investing in Lower - Quality Entities - **Fundamentals**: Since 2024, the steel industry has been in the bottom - exploring stage. Although the pro - growth policies have slightly improved the industry's prosperity, the sustainability is weak. The problem of over - supply is still serious. [6] - **Financial Indicator Performance**: The profitability has been under continuous pressure, with a marginal improvement in Q1. The operating net cash flow has shrunk, the gap in investment net cash flow has widened, the financing net cash flow has turned positive, the median asset - liability ratio has increased, and the short - term solvency has slightly declined. [6] - **Investment Strategy**: Caution should be exercised when investing in lower - quality entities. 1 - 2yAA + varieties can be focused on. [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 6 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪回暖，钢矿震荡回升 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡回升，录得 0.57%日涨幅，量增仓缩。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应持续收缩，但需求同样走弱，供需双弱局面基本面未见好 转，钢价继续承压运行，相对利好则是库存低位，现实端矛盾不大，预 期现实博弈下预计螺纹价格延续低位震荡运行态势，重点关注需求表现 情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.55%日涨幅，量稳仓增。目前来 看，热卷供应持续回升，而需求弱稳运行，供强需弱局面下热卷基本面 有所走弱，库存开始增加，热卷继续承压，相对利好则是中美贸易风险 暂缓，市场情绪回暖，短期乐观情绪主导下预计热卷价格震荡企稳，关 注需求表现情况。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡走高，录得 0.86%日涨幅，量仓扩大。现阶 段，铁矿石供需格局变化不大，需求维持高位但存走弱预期，利好效应 不强，相反财年末矿商发运积极，供应压力偏大，供强需弱局面矿石基 本面将走弱，矿价承压运行，相对利好则是期价深度贴水，且市场情绪 回暖，修贴水逻辑支撑下下行阻力较大， ...

Group 1: Impact of Deposit Rate Cuts on Credit Bonds - The impact of deposit rate cuts on credit bond performance varies; if the cuts lead to a decline in policy rates, credit spreads typically widen, while if they precede rate cuts, spreads may narrow [1][9][10] - Historical analysis shows that after deposit rate cuts, the net buying power for credit bonds from funds and insurance is usually limited, indicating a weak immediate impact [1][15][9] - The short-term influence of deposit rate cuts on credit spreads is primarily driven by market sentiment and conditions rather than direct attribution to the event [1][15][9] Group 2: June Credit Bond Strategy - In June, the demand for credit bonds may weaken marginally, and the momentum for spread narrowing is expected to slow down due to seasonal trends [1][25][28] - The market is anticipated to remain volatile, with institutions focusing on high-yield bonds to potentially drive structural narrowing in credit spreads, although a trend compression is unlikely [1][25][28] - The liquidity environment is expected to be stable, with the central bank showing a strong willingness to support liquidity, which may help mitigate risks of significant capital outflows [1][28][26] Group 3: Sector-Specific Strategies - For urban investment bonds, focus on low-grade bonds within 3 years and medium to high-grade bonds in the 4-5 year range, particularly in regions with strong financial capabilities [2][3] - In the real estate sector, attention should be on AA-rated bonds from central and state-owned enterprises with maturities of 1-2 years, as lower-grade real estate bonds have shown significant spread compression [2][3] - For cyclical bonds, particularly coal and steel, a cautious approach is recommended, with a focus on high-grade issuers to avoid tail risks associated with declining market conditions [2][3]

| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月4日 | | | 問敏波 | 20010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3090 | 3120 | -30 | 185 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3150 | 3160 | -10 | 245 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3200 | 3230 | -30 | 295 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2910 | 2973 | -63 | 180 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2928 | 2961 | -33 | 162 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 2905 | 2967 | -62 | 185 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3170 | 3170 | 0 | 125 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3100 | 3140 | -40 | ਵੇਂ | | | 热卷现 ...