Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The supply and demand sides of coal and coke have implemented production cuts, but most of the production cut cycles are short. Attention should be paid to the resumption process. The market sentiment is generally cooling down but still fluctuating, and prices are under pressure and oscillating [3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices oscillated, and there was a rapid rise near the close of the night session. On the spot side, the high - priced resources of some coal mines had weak sales, and prices were stable with a slight decline. The first round of coke price reduction has been implemented [3]. Supply Side - Last week, due to the military parade, many coal mines in Shanxi stopped production for maintenance, leading to a significant decline in coal production. This week, production is gradually recovering. The daily average coking coal output of 523 coal mines this week is 72.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.5 million tons. Mine - end inventory has decreased [3]. Demand Side - Last week, the steel mill production cut expectation was realized. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills' blast furnaces was 228.84 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.29 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.23 million tons. Most steel mills resumed production on September 4, and short - term hot metal output tends to rise. However, due to factors such as continuous inventory accumulation of finished products and narrowing steel mill profits, raw material demand will face challenges later [4].

Core Viewpoint - Sun Jimu, a steel tycoon, has acquired a 5% stake in Zhend Medical through a share transfer agreement, indicating confidence in the company's future despite recent performance challenges [1][6]. Company Summary - Zhend Medical announced the transfer of 13.32 million shares to Sun Jimu at a price of 26.74 CNY per share, representing a 10% discount from the closing price of 29.45 CNY on September 10, totaling approximately 356 million CNY [1][6]. - After the transaction, Zhend Medical's controlling shareholder, Zhejiang Zhend, and its concerted parties will hold 54.2% of the shares, while Sun Jimu will hold 5% [6]. - The company reported a revenue of 2.1 billion CNY in the first half of the year, a 2.83% increase year-on-year, but a net profit of 128 million CNY, down 20.61% year-on-year, attributed to increased expenses and market development costs [6]. Industry Context - Zhend Medical, established in 1994, operates in the "medical + health" sector, focusing on a range of products including health protection, wound care, and personal hygiene [6]. - Sun Jimu is the chairman of Hebei Xinhua United Metallurgical Holding Group, which ranks 42nd in the "2025 China Private Enterprises 500" list with a revenue of 172.8 billion CNY [7]. - Sun Jimu has previously acquired a stake in Jingu Co., with a current holding of 6%, and the stock has appreciated by 21% this year, indicating potential gains from his investments [7].

Group 1 - Sun Jimu acquired a 5% stake in Zhend Medical by purchasing 13.32 million shares at a price of 26.74 CNY per share, which is approximately 10% lower than the closing price of 29.45 CNY on September 10 [1] - The total transaction value amounts to 356 million CNY, and this transfer does not trigger a mandatory bid, nor does it change the controlling shareholder of Zhend Medical [1] - After the transaction, the controlling shareholder, Zhejiang Zhend, and its concerted parties will hold a combined 54.2% stake, while Sun Jimu will hold 5% [1] Group 2 - Zhend Medical, established in 1994, integrates R&D, production, and sales, focusing on health protection, wound care, and personal hygiene products [2] - In the first half of the year, Zhend Medical reported a revenue of 2.1 billion CNY, a 2.83% increase year-on-year, but a net profit of 128 million CNY, a decline of 20.61% compared to the previous year [2] - The decline in profit is attributed to increased expenses during the ramp-up phase of its overseas production base and costs related to new market registrations [2] Group 3 - Sun Jimu, chairman of Hebei Xinhua United Metallurgical Holding Group, previously acquired a 6% stake in Jingu Co., with a 21% increase in its stock price this year [3] - Both Zhend Medical and Jingu Co. are located in Zhejiang Province, despite Sun Jimu's primary operations being in Hebei Province [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the overall market conditions in China, focusing on the capital market, economic structure changes, and specific industries such as real estate, energy, and chemicals. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Stability and Bullish Outlook** The domestic economic structure is positively changing, with a decrease in risk-free interest rates driving capital into the market, stabilizing the capital market. The short-term bullish logic remains unchanged, and the mid-term outlook is still positive [1][3][5]. 2. **Risks to the Bull Market** Major risks include regulatory tightening and tensions in US-China relations. However, the current regulatory approach is focused on risk prevention, and no significant risks from US-China relations have been observed, making the overall risk manageable in the short term [4][5]. 3. **Market Adjustment Reasons** Recent market adjustments were primarily due to weak narratives around rising stocks, with profit effects narrowing to specific sectors like AI computing. This extreme concentration in a few stocks necessitates a structural adjustment in trading [6]. 4. **Investment Directions** Suggested investment areas include: - **Anti-involution related industries**: Such as photovoltaic, chemicals, and petrochemicals, which are expected to benefit from policy support and capacity clearing [7]. - **Growth opportunities**: Focus on sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, which have strong industry trends [7]. - **Hong Kong stock opportunities**: Benefiting from the improvement in domestic fundamentals [7]. 5. **Impact of US Tariff Exemptions on Strategic Metals** The US has exempted certain strategic metals from tariffs, highlighting their importance in technology and defense. China, being a major producer of antimony and molybdenum, is expected to see price increases due to supply-demand imbalances [10][11]. 6. **OPEC+ Production Increase** OPEC+ has agreed to increase production in October 2025, indicating a shift from price maintenance to market share preservation. This is expected to lead to a gradual loosening of global oil supply-demand balance, with Brent crude prices potentially dropping below $60 [12][13]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Real Estate Market Recovery** Recent policies in Shenzhen, such as lifting purchase restrictions, are expected to improve market conditions, similar to previous experiences in Shanghai and Beijing [2][29]. 2. **Chemical Industry Recovery** The chemical industry is showing signs of recovery due to supply-side reforms and seasonal demand increases, particularly during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [14][15]. 3. **Coal Market Dynamics** The coal market is experiencing a price decline after reaching a peak, with expectations of a bottom around 650 RMB. Government policies are aimed at stabilizing prices and reducing overproduction [20][21]. 4. **Steel Industry Challenges** The steel industry is facing self-imposed production cuts and regulatory measures aimed at reducing overproduction. However, demand is expected to improve as the market transitions from off-peak to peak seasons [24][25]. 5. **Future of Energy Sector** The energy sector, particularly coal and storage, is expected to see gradual growth in the coming years, driven by changing supply-demand dynamics and policy support [46][47]. 6. **Aviation and Shipping Industries** The aviation sector is projected to achieve significant profitability in the upcoming peak season, while the shipping industry is expected to benefit from increased demand due to OPEC+ production adjustments [35][38]. 7. **Regulatory Environment for Express Delivery** Recent price increases in the express delivery sector are expected to alleviate competitive pressures, with a focus on maintaining profitability as the e-commerce peak season approaches [39]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into market trends, risks, and investment opportunities across various sectors.

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The silicon-manganese market is expected to oscillate between 5800 and 6000. The macro environment has policy information disturbances, causing the market to fluctuate between long and short positions. The strengthening of coal supports the rebound of alloys [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Summary - **Macro**: China's electricity consumption accounts for 30% of terminal energy consumption, higher than the world average, and is expected to exceed 40% by 2035. Baosteel identified long products and thick plates as new strategic core products. The personal mortgage loan balance of six major state-owned banks decreased by 107.8 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year, showing a three - year downward trend [6]. - **Overseas**: The US postponed trade threats against China and considered sanctions on Russia. Trump signed a US - Japan trade executive order, imposing up to 15% tariffs on most Japanese products. Many Asian and Middle Eastern investment institutions are avoiding US assets due to concerns about Trump's policies [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Since mid - May, production has been on the rise. After the price rebound, inventory has decreased for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 3200 tons. Downstream hot metal production dropped significantly due to military parade production control. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 110 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 410 yuan/ton. The steel mill procurement tender price in August increased by 150 yuan/ton month - on - month [6]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish weekly trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Considering the macro environment, the market is volatile. Coal strength supports alloy rebound. The silicon - manganese market is expected to oscillate between 5800 and 6000 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 5, the open interest of silicon - manganese futures contracts was 570,700 lots, an increase of 24,573 lots. The spread between the May - 1st contracts of silicon - manganese decreased by 4 points. The number of silicon - manganese warehouse receipts decreased by 3707 to 62,860, and the spread between the January contracts of silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon increased by 32 points to 290 [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 5, the spot price of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 244 yuan/ton, a decrease of 172 points [23]. 3. Industrial Chain - **Production**: According to Mysteel, the national capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 46.45%, a decrease of 0.55%. The daily average output was 30,405 tons, a decrease of 80 tons. The weekly demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel types decreased by 2.36% to 123,668 tons, and the national weekly supply decreased by 0.26% to 212,835 tons. Production has generally been rising since mid - May, with a slight decline this period [26]. - **Inventory**: As of September 4, the total inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of national capacity) was 160,500 tons, an increase of 11,500 tons. Inventory in Inner Mongolia decreased by 2000 tons, while that in Ningxia increased by 11,000 tons, etc. [31]. - **Upstream**: As of September 5, the price of South32 South African semi - carbonate lump at Tianjin Port was 33.8 yuan/ton - degree, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/ton - degree. As of September 1, the electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 32,000 tons to 4.414 million tons. The arrival of South African manganese ore increased by 35% to 506,900 tons, while that from Australia decreased by 87.4% to 20,900 tons, etc. On September 5, the spot production cost in the northern region decreased by 10 to 5830 yuan/ton, and the profit was - 205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; in the southern region, the cost decreased by 10 to 6240 yuan/ton, and the profit was - 580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [33][41][44]. - **Downstream**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.2884 million tons, a decrease of 112,900 tons week - on - week but an increase of 62,300 tons year - on - year. The silicon - manganese tender price of HBIS in August was 6000 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to July [48].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Silicon Ferrosilicon Market Weekly Report: Cost Increase, Loss Expansion, Short - term Price Support" [2] - Date: September 5, 2025 - Researcher: Xu Yuhua 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The cost of silicon ferrosilicon has increased and losses have expanded, providing short - term support for prices. The macro - environment has information disturbances from anti - involution policies, causing the futures market to fluctuate between long and short positions. The strengthening of coal prices supports the rebound of alloys. The silicon ferrosilicon main contract is expected to oscillate between 5540 - 5750 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Macro Aspect**: China's electricity consumption accounts for 30% of terminal energy consumption, expected to rise to over 40% by 2035. Baosteel will focus on long products and thick plates. The personal mortgage loan balance of six major state - owned banks has decreased by 107.8 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year [7]. - **Overseas Aspect**: The US has postponed trade threats against China and is considering sanctions on Russia. Trump signed a US - Japan trade executive order, imposing up to 15% tariffs on most Japanese products. Some Asian and Middle - Eastern investment institutions are avoiding US assets [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: After the previous profit improvement, production has quickly recovered. Most manufacturers hedged earlier, and inventory is at a neutral level. The cost of blue charcoal and electricity has risen, while the overall demand for steel remains weak. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 315 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 390 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the silicon ferrosilicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend on the weekly chart [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Treat the silicon ferrosilicon main contract as oscillating between 5540 - 5750 [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 5, the silicon ferrosilicon futures contract open interest was 451,600 lots, an increase of 39,388 lots. The 5 - 1 contract month - spread was 110, a decrease of 34 points. The number of warehouse receipts was 18,309, a decrease of 1,524. The Ningxia silicon ferrosilicon price was 5,360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [9][11][15]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 5, the silicon ferrosilicon basis was - 358 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82 points [23]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Production and Demand**: This week (September 4), the national silicon ferrosilicon production capacity utilization rate was 36.34%, a decrease of 0.20%. The daily average production was 16,430 tons, an increase of 1.70%. The weekly demand for silicon ferrosilicon in five major steel types was 20,076.1 tons, a decrease of 2.42%. The national silicon ferrosilicon weekly supply was 115,000 tons [27]. - **Inventory**: As of September 4, the national silicon ferrosilicon inventory was 66,560 tons, an increase of 5.80%. Inner Mongolia's inventory increased by 4,000 tons, while Ningxia's decreased by 200 tons [30]. - **Upstream**: As of September 1, the electricity price in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia for silicon ferrosilicon remained unchanged. As of September 4, the average price of blue charcoal in Ningxia remained unchanged. As of September 5, the spot production cost in Ningxia increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 350 yuan/ton. In Inner Mongolia, the cost remained unchanged, and the profit decreased by 130 yuan/ton [36][42]. - **Downstream**: This week, the daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills was 228,840 tons, a decrease of 112,900 tons. From January to July 2025, the total silicon ferrosilicon export volume was 236,000 tons, a decrease of 4.91% compared to the same period last year. The August silicon ferrosilicon tender price was 5,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to July [44][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products**: Weak operation due to supply - demand contradictions, with a cautious - bearish outlook [3][5] - **Iron Ore**: Neutral - bearish fundamentals, suggesting to reduce short positions [6][7] - **Coke**: Bearish in the medium - term [8][11] - **Coking Coal**: Bearish in the medium - term [12][15] - **Ferroalloys**: Weak operation as fundamental contradictions are yet to accumulate, with a cautious - bearish outlook [16][18] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: The supply - demand relationship of steel products has contradictions. For rebar, although demand has increased month - on - month, it is still lower than production, and inventory continues to rise. For hot - rolled coils, production and apparent demand have decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory has increased slightly [3][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production has declined, steel mills have completed restocking, and port inventories are piling up. External ore shipments have increased while arrivals have decreased, and the macro sentiment has cooled down, resulting in a weakening of the ore price [6] - **Coke**: Coke has started the first round of price cuts, and the game between steel and coking enterprises is obvious. Some coking enterprises may have production restrictions before the parade. Iron - water production remains high, but there is a risk of decline in the medium - term due to the expected resumption of production [10] - **Coking Coal**: Affected by the parade, production has decreased month - on - month, but it is expected to recover gradually later. The downstream restocking speed has slowed down, and there are multiple failed auctions of Mongolian coal. There is a lack of positive factors, and there is a risk of downward adjustment in the medium - term [14] - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, production continues to increase, but the growth rate has slowed down, and inventory has decreased. For ferrosilicon, production has decreased, and inventory has increased slightly. The fundamental contradictions of both are yet to accumulate [16][17][18] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar**: Currently, blast - furnace profits have decreased compared to the previous period but remain positive. Iron - water production is running stably at a high level and may decrease due to pre - parade production restrictions. Demand has increased month - on - month but is still lower than production, and inventory continues to rise, with room for decline in the medium - term [4][5] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Production and apparent demand have decreased slightly month - on - month, inventory has increased slightly, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. The overall supply - demand of steel products shows a loosening trend, and there is a risk of decline in the medium - term [4][5] Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Iron - water production has declined, steel mills have completed restocking, and port inventories are piling up. External ore shipments have increased while arrivals have decreased, and the macro sentiment has cooled down, leading to a weakening of the ore price [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Reduce short positions [7] Coke - **Market Situation**: Coke has started the first round of price cuts, and the game between steel and coking enterprises is obvious. Some coking enterprises may have production restrictions before the parade. Iron - water production remains high, but there is a risk of decline in the medium - term due to the expected resumption of production [10] - **Operation Suggestion**: Bearish [11] Coking Coal - **Market Situation**: Affected by the parade, production has decreased month - on - month, but it is expected to recover gradually later. The downstream restocking speed has slowed down, and there are multiple failed auctions of Mongolian coal. There is a lack of positive factors, and there is a risk of downward adjustment in the medium - term [14] - **Operation Suggestion**: Bearish [15] Ferroalloys - **Ferromanganese**: Weekly production continues to increase, but the growth rate has slowed down. Demand has increased slightly compared to the previous period, and enterprise inventory is 149,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons month - on - month. Steel mills will start restocking in September. The October manganese ore quotes from Comilog and United Mining to China are the same as the previous round, and the cost side has certain support. The fundamental contradictions are yet to accumulate, and it is expected to run weakly in the short - term [16][17][18] - **Ferrosilicon**: Weekly production has decreased, demand has increased slightly compared to the previous period, and enterprise inventory is 62,900 tons, an increase of 830 tons month - on - month. The fundamental contradictions are yet to accumulate, and it is expected to run weakly in the short - term [16][17][18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Guotai Junan Dividend Quantitative Stock Mixed Fund A (021919) reported a profit of 1.4507 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net value growth rate of 1.45% [3][4] - As of September 2, 2025, the fund's unit net value was 1.105 yuan, and the fund manager, Hu Chonghai, manages a total of 11 funds [3][4] - The fund's performance in terms of net value growth rates places it in the middle range compared to similar funds, with a three-month growth rate of 7.67% and a six-month growth rate of 10.98% [7] Group 2 - The fund focuses on high dividend, low volatility assets, which are seen as defensive during economic fluctuations, with a relative advantage in high dividend stocks due to low-risk interest rates and increased dividend payouts from listed companies [4] - The CSI Dividend Index fell by 3.07% in the first half of the year, but the long-term logic remains unchanged, with stable earnings from index constituent stocks primarily in consumer and public utility sectors [4] - Defensive sectors such as public utilities and transportation are expected to perform steadily during market fluctuations, while traditional high-dividend sectors like banking and coal benefit from policy support and resilient profits [4] Group 3 - As of June 30, 2025, the fund's weighted price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) was approximately 11.06 times, significantly lower than the industry average of 33.74 times [12] - The fund's weighted price-to-book ratio (LF) was about 0.81 times, compared to the industry average of 2.47 times, indicating lower valuations [12] - The weighted price-to-sales ratio (TTM) was around 0.8 times, while the industry average was 2.07 times, further highlighting the fund's attractive valuation metrics [12] Group 4 - The fund's weighted revenue growth rate (TTM) for the first half of 2025 was -0.02%, and the weighted net profit growth rate (TTM) was also -0.02%, indicating a stagnation in growth [21] - The fund's annualized return on equity was 0.07%, reflecting limited profitability growth [21] - The fund has maintained a high stock position, with an average stock position of 91.23% since inception, compared to the industry average of 85.36% [35] Group 5 - As of June 30, 2025, the fund had a total of 802 holders, with a total of 6.95427 million shares held, where individual investors accounted for 78.56% of the holdings [39] - The fund's turnover rate in the last six months was approximately 381.69%, consistently higher than the industry average [42] - The top ten holdings of the fund included major banks and energy companies, indicating a focus on stable dividend-paying stocks [45]

Core Insights - The China Steel Association reported a continued decline in procurement costs for coking coal and a mixed trend for iron ore in July 2025, with most categories showing significant year-on-year decreases in costs [1] Group 1: Coking Coal - The weighted average procurement cost of coking coal in July was 1100.18 CNY/ton, a decrease of 32.00 CNY/ton or 2.83% month-on-month [2] - From January to July, the cumulative average procurement cost was 1250.49 CNY/ton, down 634.14 CNY/ton or 33.65% year-on-year [2] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 1015.95 CNY/ton, which is 234.54 CNY/ton or 18.76% lower than the average [4] Group 2: Spraying Coal - The weighted average procurement cost of spraying coal in July was 841.62 CNY/ton, a decrease of 7.59 CNY/ton or 0.89% month-on-month [6] - The cumulative average procurement cost from January to July was 938.94 CNY/ton, down 198.76 CNY/ton or 17.47% year-on-year [6] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 727.16 CNY/ton, which is 211.78 CNY/ton or 22.56% lower than the average [8] Group 3: Metallurgical Coke - The weighted average procurement cost of metallurgical coke in July was 1303.66 CNY/ton, a decrease of 51.49 CNY/ton or 3.80% month-on-month [11] - The cumulative average procurement cost from January to July was 1482.27 CNY/ton, down 646.01 CNY/ton or 30.35% year-on-year [11] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 1279.56 CNY/ton, which is 202.71 CNY/ton or 13.68% lower than the average [13] Group 4: Domestic Iron Concentrate - The weighted average procurement cost of domestic iron concentrate in July was 745.01 CNY/ton, an increase of 1.73 CNY/ton or 0.23% month-on-month [14] - The cumulative average procurement cost from January to July was 769.34 CNY/ton, down 119.02 CNY/ton or 13.40% year-on-year [14] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 630.96 CNY/ton, which is 131.37 CNY/ton or 17.23% lower than the average [16] Group 5: Imported Powder Ore - The weighted average procurement cost of imported powder ore in July was 725.51 CNY/ton, an increase of 1.54 CNY/ton or 0.21% month-on-month [19] - The cumulative average procurement cost from January to July was 754.60 CNY/ton, down 124.77 CNY/ton or 14.19% year-on-year [19] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 713.04 CNY/ton, which is 59.06 CNY/ton or 7.65% lower than the average [21] Group 6: Scrap Steel - The weighted average procurement cost of scrap steel in July was 2146.37 CNY/ton, an increase of 18.20 CNY/ton or 0.86% month-on-month [25] - The cumulative average procurement cost from January to July was 2180.06 CNY/ton, down 358.06 CNY/ton or 14.11% year-on-year [25] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 1948.06 CNY/ton, which is 232.00 CNY/ton or 10.64% lower than the average [27] Group 7: Silicon Manganese Alloy - The weighted average procurement cost of silicon manganese alloy in July was 5143.37 CNY/ton, an increase of 60.61 CNY/ton or 1.19% month-on-month [30] - The cumulative average procurement cost from January to July was 5389.77 CNY/ton, down 793.53 CNY/ton or 12.83% year-on-year [30] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 5104.90 CNY/ton, which is 284.87 CNY/ton or 5.29% lower than the average [32] Group 8: Manganese Iron Alloy - The weighted average procurement cost of manganese iron alloy in July was 5973.38 CNY/ton, a decrease of 46.72 CNY/ton or 0.78% month-on-month [35] - The cumulative average procurement cost from January to July was 6274.58 CNY/ton, down 341.48 CNY/ton or 5.16% year-on-year [35] - The lowest five companies had an average procurement cost of 4848.24 CNY/ton, which is 1426.34 CNY/ton or 22.73% lower than the average [37]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Expected High Dividend Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to construct a portfolio with high expected dividend yield by leveraging historical dividend data, fundamental indicators, and short-term factors like reversal and profitability[5][10][16] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Dividend Yield Calculation**: - Phase 1: Calculate dividend yield based on annual report profit distribution announcements - Phase 2: Predict and calculate dividend yield using historical dividend data and fundamental indicators[5][10] 2. **Screening Process**: - Exclude suspended and limit-up stocks from the CSI 300 constituents[15] - Remove the top 20% of stocks with the highest short-term momentum (21-day cumulative return)[15] - Exclude stocks with declining profitability (quarterly net profit YoY growth < 0)[15] 3. **Final Selection**: - Rank the remaining stocks by expected dividend yield - Select the top 30 stocks with the highest expected dividend yield and construct an equally weighted portfolio[11] **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong historical performance with significant excess returns and controlled drawdowns, making it a robust strategy for high-dividend stock selection[13] Model Backtesting Results - **Expected High Dividend Portfolio**: - Cumulative Return: 358.90% - Cumulative Excess Return (vs CSI 300 Total Return Index): 107.44% - Annualized Excess Return: 8.87% - Maximum Rolling 1-Year Drawdown of Excess Return: 12.26% - Monthly Excess Win Rate: 60.19%[13] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Expected Dividend Yield Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Predict future dividend yield by combining historical dividend data, fundamental indicators, and short-term influencing factors[5][16] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate historical dividend yield based on profit distribution announcements[5][10] 2. Predict future dividend yield using fundamental indicators and historical dividend patterns[5][10] 3. Incorporate two short-term factors: - **Reversal Factor**: Accounts for short-term price reversals - **Profitability Factor**: Reflects the company's earnings performance[5][16] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively identifies high-dividend stocks and serves as a reliable input for portfolio construction[16] - **Factor Name**: Red Dividend Timing Framework (Composite Signal) **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines multiple single-factor signals to assess the market's outlook on dividend stocks[25][28] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Evaluate five single-factor signals: - **Inflation**: PPI YoY (High/Low) - **Liquidity**: M2 YoY (High/Low) - **M1-M2 Gap**: Scissors Difference (High/Low) - **Interest Rate**: US 10-Year Treasury Yield (High/Low) - **Market Sentiment**: Dividend Stock Turnover Ratio (Up/Down)[28] 2. Assign binary signals (1 for bullish, 0 for bearish) to each factor 3. Aggregate the signals into a composite indicator[28] **Factor Evaluation**: The framework provides a systematic approach to timing dividend stock investments, though the September 2025 signal suggests a cautious stance[25][28] Factor Backtesting Results - **Expected Dividend Yield Factor**: - August 2025 Portfolio Average Return: 5.69% - Excess Return (vs CSI 300 Index): -4.80% - Excess Return (vs CSI Dividend Index): +4.70%[5][16] - **Red Dividend Timing Framework (Composite Signal)**: - Latest Signal (September 2025): 0 (Neutral)[25][28]