Core Viewpoint - Hebei Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. (000709.SZ) is actively involved in the research and development of materials related to controllable nuclear fusion devices through its subsidiary, Hebei Iron and Steel Materials Technology Research Institute [1] Group 1 - The company is a key player in the development of materials for nuclear fusion technology [1] - Hebei Iron and Steel Materials Technology Research Institute is a holding subsidiary of Hebei Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - China's industrial profit data shows that in October, the profit of large - scale industrial enterprises decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, but the profit in the first 10 months increased by 1.9% year - on - year. Among the three major sectors, the mining industry decreased by 27.8%, the manufacturing industry increased by 7.7%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water increased by 9.5% in the first 10 months [7]. - The long - term supply of copper is tight, and the consumption is expected to pick up. In 2026, the copper market will be in a state of supply shortage, with a high premium for refined copper. The long - term trading strategy for copper is mainly long - position [8][9]. - Cotton futures are expected to fluctuate due to the dual effects of short - term high - yield pressure and high basis support [10]. - After the listing of platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, there are still risk - free arbitrage opportunities in the cross - market structure, and the prices of platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the short - term due to the easing of the Russia - Ukraine war situation [11][12]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Products 3.1.1 Gold and Silver - Gold: The expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][19]. - Silver: It is in a state of shock adjustment. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][19]. 3.1.2 Copper - The long - term supply of copper is tight, and the long - term consumption is expected to pick up. In 2026, the global copper market will have a supply shortage of 150,000 tons. The long - term trading strategy is mainly long - position. The trend strength is 1, indicating a relatively strong view [8][9][25]. 3.1.3 Zinc - Zinc is in a state of weak shock. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][26]. 3.1.4 Lead - The inventory of lead has decreased, which supports the price. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][30]. 3.1.5 Tin - The supply of tin has been disturbed again. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][32]. 3.1.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum is in a state of range - bound shock; alumina rebounds from a low level; cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of all three is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][36]. 3.1.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - The inventory accumulation rhythm of nickel has slowed down, and it is affected by macro and news in the short - term. Stainless steel prices are under pressure and fluctuate at a low level, but the downward space is limited. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][39]. 3.1.8 Carbonate Lithium - With the gradual resumption of production by large manufacturers and the less - than - expected inventory reduction, the price of carbonate lithium is under pressure. The trend strength is - 2, indicating a very bearish view [15][44]. 3.1.9 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon mainly fluctuates within a range. Polysilicon requires attention to the position of the 2512 contract. The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and that of polysilicon is - 1 (weakly bearish) [15][47][48]. 3.1.10 Iron Ore - The downstream demand space for iron ore is limited, and the valuation is high. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a weakly bearish view [15][51]. 3.1.11 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Both rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a state of wide - range shock. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][53][54]. 3.1.12 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon fluctuates widely due to market sentiment disturbances, and silicomanganese fluctuates widely due to the firm price of ore. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][58]. 3.1.13 Coke and Coking Coal - Both coke and coking coal are in a state of wide - range shock. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral view [15][62]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Cotton - Cotton futures are expected to fluctuate due to the dual effects of short - term high - yield pressure and high basis support. Attention should be paid to the change of the basis of spot cotton [10][15][18]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Other Oils - Palm oil has a technical rebound due to the weakening of high - yield marginal trading. Soybean oil mainly fluctuates within a range [18]. 3.2.3 Corn - Corn is in a state of shock and upward trend [18]. 3.2.4 Sugar - Sugar is in a state of range consolidation [18]. 3.2.5 Eggs - The increase in the number of culled hens provides expected support for egg prices [18]. 3.2.6 Live Pigs - The limit on positions drives the divergence between the near - term futures and spot prices of live pigs [18]. 3.2.7 Peanuts - Attention should be paid to the spot price of peanuts [18]. 3.3 Others 3.3.1 Logs - Logs are in a state of weak shock [18][64].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 27, the JM2601 contract closed at 1071.0, down 0.19%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 coking coal was reported at 1420, equivalent to 1200 on the futures market. The macro - situation: the NDRC issued a notice on ensuring the supply of thermal coal in 2026, weakening the market's expectations. Fundamentally, the capacity utilization rate of mines declined this period, and the coking coal inventory of mines and coal washing plants increased for 4 consecutive weeks. The overall inventory is at a moderate level with a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weakly volatile [2]. - On November 27, the J2601 contract closed at 1607.0, up 0.03%. The fourth round of price increase for coke in the spot market has been implemented. The macro - situation: on November 24, South Korea announced anti - dumping duties on Chinese medium and heavy plates and alloy steel hot - rolled thick plates for 5 years. Fundamentally, in terms of demand, the pig iron output this period was 236.28 (-0.60) million tons, and the total coke inventory is relatively high compared to the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants across the country this period was 19 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weakly volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1071.00 yuan/ton, down 13.50 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1607.00 yuan/ton, down 12.00 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest: 862195.00 lots, down 16796.00 lots; J futures contract open interest: 48293.00 lots, down 1586.00 lots [2]. - Net position of the top 20 JM contracts: - 112785.00 lots, down 10341.00 lots; net position of the top 20 J contracts: - 274.00 lots, up 101.00 lots [2]. - JM 5 - 1 month contract spread: 94.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan; J 5 - 1 month contract spread: 144.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 0.00; coke warehouse receipts: 2070.00 [2]. Spot Market - Dry Qimantage Meng 5 raw coal: 1008.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke: 1885.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 162.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1510.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan; Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke: 1770.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1670.00 yuan/ton, down 110.00 yuan; Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis: 278.00 yuan/ton, up 12.00 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1380.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM main contract basis: 539.00 yuan/ton, up 13.50 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The clean coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants: 26.60 million tons per day, down 1.00 million tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants: 305.30 million tons per week, up 2.50 million tons [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants: 0.36%, down 0.01%; raw coal output: 40675.00 million tons per month, down 475.50 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports: 4174.00 million tons per month, down 426.00 million tons; the average daily raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines: 191.30 million tons, down 2.10 million tons [2]. - The imported coking coal inventory of 16 ports: 456.90 million tons per week, down 31.30 million tons; the coke inventory of 18 ports: 253.40 million tons per week, down 6.10 million tons [2]. - The total coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 1038.19 million tons per week, down 30.78 million tons; the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 65.29 million tons per week, up 7.14 million tons [2]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide: 797.08 million tons per week, up 6.91 million tons; the coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills: 622.34 million tons per week, down 0.06 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises: 12.97 days per week, up 0.10 days; the available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills: 11.05 days per week, down 0.01 days [2]. Industry Situation - Coking coal imports: 1059.32 million tons per month, down 33.04 million tons; coke and semi - coke exports: 73.00 million tons per month, up 19.00 million tons [2]. - Coking coal output: 3975.92 million tons per month, up 279.06 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises: 71.71%, up 0.07% [2]. - Profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants: 19.00 yuan/ton, up 53.00 yuan; coke output: 4189.60 million tons per month, down 66.00 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide: 82.17%, down 0.62%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 88.56%, down 0.26% [2]. - Crude steel output: 7199.70 million tons per month, down 149.31 million tons [2]. Industry News - The Chief Economist of the European Central Bank, Philip Lane, said that the world economy is undergoing profound changes beyond the impact of US tariffs, and Europe must start to seek growth drivers locally as its traditional sources of income are drying up [2]. - According to Bloomberg News, the Pentagon believes that Alibaba, Baidu, and BYD should be included in the list of enterprises assisting the Chinese military [2]. - From January to October, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 105.32 billion yuan [2]. - Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Implementation Plan for Enhancing the Adaptability of Consumer Goods Supply and Demand and Further Promoting Consumption", aiming to form 3 trillion - level and 100 - billion - level consumer sectors by 2027 [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday, the RB2601 contract decreased in positions and consolidated. Recently, the strong iron ore price, positive macro - factors, and larger reduction of short positions in near - month contracts supported the steel price to run strongly. However, short positions in far - month mainstream contracts increased significantly. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA cross at a high level. It is expected that the price may consolidate in a range in the short - term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,099 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the position volume was 1,200,700 lots, down 100,338 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 72,292 lots, down 25,719 lots; the RB1 - 5 contract spread was - 17 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 59,519 tons, down 7,773 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 205 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,364 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,470 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,210 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 181 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/wet ton, down 5 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,690 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,980 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 15,050.88 million tons, down 75.04 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 43.33 million tons, up 7.30 million tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 622.40 million tons, up 0.25 million tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 116.1 million tons, down 0.56 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.17%, down 0.62 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 88.56%, down 0.26 percentage points [2] Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar of sample steel mills was 207.96 million tons, up 7.96 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 45.59%, up 1.74 percentage points; the inventory in sample steel mills was 153.32 million tons, down 7.10 million tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 400.02 million tons, down 15.73 million tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, unchanged. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 7,200 million tons, down 149 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese rebar was 1,475 million tons, up 41 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 928 million tons, down 64 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real - estate prosperity index was 92.43, down 0.34; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was - 1.70%, down 1.20 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion was - 14.70%, down 0.80 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was - 0.10%, down 1.20 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 652,939 million square meters, down 4,359 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 49,061 million square meters, down 3,662 million square meters; the inventory of commercial housing for sale was 39,645 million square meters, up 292 million square meters [2] Industry News - In mid - November 2025, key steel enterprises produced 19.43 billion tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.943 billion tons, a 0.9% increase in daily output month - on - month; 17.97 billion tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.797 billion tons, a 0.4% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 19.24 billion tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.924 billion tons, a 2.1% increase in daily output month - on - month. Trump said that the peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia was "very close to being reached", but European leaders were skeptical. White House Press Secretary Levitt said on the 25th that there were still some delicate details in the peace agreement proposed by the US to end the Ukraine crisis, but these problems were not insurmountable [2] Key Points to Watch - The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of rebar on Thursday [2]

2025年11月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：降息预期回升 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡调整 | 3 | | 铜：LME现货走强，驱动价格 | 5 | | 锌：偏弱震荡 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，限制价格回落 | 9 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 10 | | 铝：等待指引 | 12 | | 氧化铝：承压下行 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：累库节奏稍有放缓，宏观与消息短线扰动 | 14 | | 不锈钢：钢价承压低位震荡，但下方想象力有限 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：市场情绪向好，高位震荡 | 16 | | 工业硅：关注盘面下方支撑 | 18 | | 多晶硅：震荡偏强 | 18 | | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：仓单大量注册，注意持仓风险 | 23 | | 锰硅：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 原木：弱势震荡 | 26 | | 对二甲苯：短期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall finished steel products are supported by raw material costs at the bottom but driven by inventory at the top. It is expected that the finished steel products will fluctuate within a range. The operating range of rebar may be between 2900 - 3200, and that of hot-rolled coils between 3100 - 3400. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed of steel products and downstream consumption. The risk lies in the potential negative feedback risk caused by the decline in the profitability rate of steel enterprises [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The 01 contract monthly price range forecast for rebar is 2900 - 3300, with a current volatility of 11.25% and a volatility percentile of 14.7%. For hot-rolled coils, it is 3100 - 3500, with a current volatility of 9.34% and a volatility percentile of 3.80% [3]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategy Recommendations 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about falling steel prices, to prevent inventory - related losses, enterprises can short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs. For RB2601 and HC2601, the selling ratio is 30%, with recommended entry intervals of 3200 - 3250 and 3350 - 3400 respectively. Selling call options can reduce capital costs, and if steel prices rise, the spot selling price can be locked. For RB2601C3400, the selling ratio is 20%, with a recommended entry interval of 50 - 55 [3]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and enterprises hope to purchase according to orders, they can buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. For RB2601 and HC2601, the buying ratio is 30%, with recommended entry intervals of 2950 - 3000 and 3100 - 3150 respectively. Selling put options can collect premiums to reduce procurement costs, and if rebar prices fall, the spot purchase price can be locked. For RB2601P2900, the selling ratio is 20%, with a recommended entry interval of 35 - 45 [3]. 3.3 Market Review - Today, the prices of finished steel products continued to rise slightly, showing a pattern of rising with decreasing positions. Recently, the shortage of medium - grade iron ore resources has led to a tight supply of deliverable resources, making iron ore relatively strong and driving up the prices of finished steel products. However, the upward movement of iron ore is constrained by the decline in hot metal production and high port inventories, which may affect the price increase of finished steel products [3]. 3.4 Core Logic - This week, both the supply and demand of steel increased, and the inventory continued to be slowly destocked. The supply - demand balance is gradually improving. Hot - rolled coils have started to be slowly destocked, but the inventory is still at a relatively high level in the same period of the past five years, with over - seasonal inventory accumulation. The plate end is still in a situation of high inventory and high production, and destocking may need to rely on production cuts. Plate exports remain high, supporting good export demand, but domestic demand is gradually weakening month - on - month. Hot metal production decreased month - on - month this week, and it is expected to continue the slow production - cut trend according to seasonal patterns and profit decline. This week, the profitability rate of steel enterprises continued to decline to 37.66%, and the risk of negative feedback is gradually increasing. In terms of cost, the arrival volume of iron ore last week decreased significantly month - on - month, and the port inventory accumulation slowed down and turned to destocking. However, with the recovery of iron ore shipments to a high level and the decline in hot metal production last week, it is expected that the port inventory of iron ore may turn back to the accumulation trend. Recently, the shortage of medium - grade iron ore resources has led to a tight supply of deliverable resources, making iron ore relatively strong, but it is constrained by hot metal production cuts and high port inventories at the top and supported by the expectation of winter storage replenishment at the bottom, resulting in a range - bound price. The previous negative factors for rebar are gradually being realized and cleared, but there is no obvious increase in downstream demand. Although blast furnace profits are in the red, profits are significantly improving during the slow destocking of steel, and the bottom support for steel prices is strong [4][5]. 3.5 Interpretation of Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.5.1 Bullish Factors - The inventory of iron ore ports continued to accumulate but at a slower pace, and it turned to destocking last week. The high valuation of iron ore has recently declined, and it is supported by the expectation of winter storage replenishment. The supply - demand balance of finished steel products is gradually improving. The decline in coking coal prices has benefited finished steel products, and the profits of finished steel products are slowly recovering [7]. 3.5.2 Bearish Factors - The basis of hot - rolled coils is gradually weakening. The steel market fails to meet expectations during the peak season, the profitability rate of steel mills has declined significantly, and the pressure of negative feedback is gradually increasing. The arrival volume of iron ore has returned to a high level, and the port inventory of iron ore may turn back to the accumulation trend. The plate end is still in a situation of high inventory and high production, with production at the highest level in the same period of the past five years, and there is no driving force on the consumption side. The inventory has accumulated over - seasonally and is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years [7]. 3.6 Price Data 3.6.1 Futures Prices - On November 25, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3106, up 17 from the previous day and 16 from the previous week; the closing price of the rebar 05 contract was 3125, up 7 from the previous day and down 14 from the previous week; the closing price of the rebar 10 contract was 3172, up 5 from the previous day and down 8 from the previous week. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3309, up 14 from the previous day and 23 from the previous week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil 05 contract was 3299, up 7 from the previous day and 4 from the previous week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil 10 contract was 3307, up 7 from the previous day and down 7 from the previous week [8]. 3.6.2 Spot Prices - On November 25, 2025, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3296, up 13 from the previous day and 17 from the previous week; the aggregated price of rebar in Shanghai was 3250, up 10 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week; the aggregated price of rebar in Beijing was 3230, unchanged from the previous day and up 10 from the previous week; the aggregated price of rebar in Hangzhou was 3290, up 10 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week; the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3220, up 10 from the previous day and down 20 from the previous week. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3300, up 10 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week; the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3330, up 20 from the previous day and 30 from the previous week; the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Shenyang was 3220, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [8]. 3.6.3 Overseas Data of Hot - Rolled Coils - On November 25, 2025, the FOB export price of hot - rolled coils in China was 450, up 5 from November 18; the FOB export price in Japan was 490, down 5; the FOB export price in India was 485, down 5; the FOB export price in Turkey was 520, down 20; the FOB export price in the CIS was 455, down 15. The CFR import price of hot - rolled coils in Southeast Asia was 462, up 4; the CFR import price in the Middle East was 490, down 5; the CFR import price in the EU was 580, down 5; the CFR import price in India was 490, down 5 [9]. 3.6.4 Month - to - Month Spreads - On November 25, 2025, the 01 - 05 month - to - month spread of rebar was - 19, up 10 from the previous day and 30 from the previous week; the 05 - 10 month - to - month spread was - 47, up 2 from the previous day and down 6 from the previous week; the 10 - 01 month - to - month spread was 66, down 12 from the previous day and 24 from the previous week. The 01 - 05 month - to - month spread of hot - rolled coils was 10, up 19 from the previous day and 19 from the previous week; the 05 - 10 month - to - month spread was - 8, up 11 from the previous day and 11 from the previous week; the 10 - 01 month - to - month spread was - 2, down 7 from the previous day and 30 from the previous week [9]. 3.6.5 Rebar - Coil Spreads - On November 25, 2025, the 01 rebar - coil spread was 203, down 3 from the previous day and 7 from the previous week; the 05 rebar - coil spread was 174, unchanged from the previous day and up 18 from the previous week; the 10 rebar - coil spread was 135, up 2 from the previous day and 1 from the previous week. The spot rebar - coil spread in Shanghai was 50, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; the spot rebar - coil spread in Beijing was 120, up 20 from the previous day and the previous week; the spot rebar - coil spread in Shenyang was 30, down 10 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - On November 24, the main contracts of coke and coking coal futures J2601 and JM2601 rebounded after hitting lows. The closing price of coke futures rebounded, while that of coking coal futures continued to decline, reaching new lows since September 15 and September 5 respectively [7]. - With the fourth round of price increase of coke spot confirmed, independent coking enterprises turned profitable after five consecutive weeks of losses. However, the coke production of independent coking enterprises has not stabilized and recently reached a new low since late March. Although steel mills and ports continued to reduce coke inventories, the coke inventory of independent coking enterprises increased significantly, recovering the decline since mid - September [12]. - Since October 25, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly. As of November 22, the 10 - day moving average data increased by 50,000 tons or 44.2% compared to October 25. Recently, the coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking plants has declined after reaching a high, and the coking coal inventory at ports has a similar trend [12]. - Currently, the prices of some coking coal spot markets have loosened. Affected by coal supply guarantee policies, the decline of coke and coking coal futures is relatively large. The future downward trend mainly depends on the restocking rhythm of steel mills and power plants. It is expected that the downward space for coke and coking coal futures is limited, and they may enter a volatile market [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: On November 24, the main contracts of coke and coking coal futures J2601 and JM2601 fluctuated. The closing price of J2601 was 1,632.5 yuan/ton, up 0.03% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 23,441 lots and a position of 35,231 lots, a decrease of 1,325 lots. The closing price of JM2601 was 1,096.5 yuan/ton, down 1.48% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 750,678 lots and a position of 498,903 lots, an increase of 1,800 lots [5]. - **Spot Market**: On November 24, the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1,670 yuan/ton, with no change. The aggregate price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Tangshan was 1,605 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton [10]. - **Technical Indicators**: The daily KDJ indicator of the coke J2601 contract formed a golden cross, and the green column of the daily MACD indicator narrowed. The daily KDJ indicator of the coking coal JM2601 contract continued to diverge, with the J and K values rising and the D value falling. The green column of the daily MACD indicator continued to expand slightly [10]. 3.2 Future Outlook - **Policy Aspect**: The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the heating season from 2025 - 2026, requiring stable energy production and supply, ensuring the performance of medium - and long - term energy contracts, and focusing on meeting the coal demand of northern heating areas, especially in the Northeast [11]. - **Market Aspect**: It is expected that the downward space for coke and coking coal futures is limited, and they may enter a volatile market. Attention should be paid to the implementation of supply guarantee policies and the restocking situation of downstream coal and coke industries [12]. 3.3 Industry News - **Steel Industry**: In mid - November, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.71 million tons, a decrease of 220,000 tons or 2.5% from the previous period, showing a continuous downward trend [13]. - **Energy Industry**: From January to October, the cumulative freight volume of national railways reached 3.378 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. As of the end of October, the coal production of Ningxia Coal Industry reached 52.2069 million tons, and the production of coal - to - oil and chemical products reached 10.6252 million tons, with multiple production and operation indicators hitting record highs [13][14]. - **International Market**: In October 2025, China's coal imports decreased by 9.3% month - on - month to 41.737 million tons. The global crude steel production in October was 143 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9% [14]. 3.4 Data Overview The report presents multiple data charts, including the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, national daily average hot metal production, coke and coking coal inventories of ports, steel mills, and coking plants, and the basis of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke and Linfen low - sulfur main coking coal [19][20][23].

Economic Overview - High-frequency data indicates that automotive consumption remains strong, benefiting from tax incentives and subsidies, while textile and film consumption is weak[7] - Real estate sales and land market show signs of fatigue, with infrastructure special bonds fully issued but project progress lagging[7] - Exports to South Korea are recovering, while import demand weakens post shopping festival[7] Market Performance - Major global asset prices have declined, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 5.1%, the largest decline among major indices[9] - The S&P 500 Index fell by 1.9%, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 3.9%[9] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 8 basis points to 4.06%[9] Federal Reserve Insights - The U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly exceeding expectations of 51,000[12] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%[12] - Federal Reserve officials exhibit significant internal disagreement regarding future monetary policy direction[8] Investment Strategies - ETF inflows have increased significantly to 503 billion, while foreign and financing funds have seen outflows[15] - The market's trading activity has decreased, with average daily turnover dropping to 1.9 trillion[14] - The risk appetite remains low, with the overall market sentiment declining[14] Sector Analysis - The technology sector is expected to benefit from AI advancements, with recommendations for investments in internet and computing sectors[35] - The financial sector is poised for recovery, with a focus on brokerage and insurance stocks[35] - Consumer stocks are seen as undervalued, with potential growth in food and beverage sectors[35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Downstream steel mills' hot metal production is falling, leading to a slowdown in coal and coke demand. Steel mills' coke production has changed little, with a slight increase in daily average coke output, a decline in inventory, and a decrease in available days. The profitability of coking enterprises in the middle - stream has improved due to the weakening of coking coal prices, but production remains poor with a month - on - month decrease in coke output. Upstream mines have accelerated production, increasing coking coal output. Overall, coking profits have rebounded significantly month - on - month. The demand side has limited support, while the supply side has a marginal increase. After continuous adjustments of coking coal and coke, attention should be paid to the previous low support, and the futures prices are expected to show a volatile trend [1][5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (lots) | Total Open Interest (lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3057 | 4 | 0.13 | 6165476 | 2619983 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3270 | 14 | 0.43 | 1916372 | 1152598 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 785.5 | 13.0 | 1.68 | 1401911 | 477486 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1103.0 | - 89.0 | - 7.47 | 5157690 | 912017 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1614.5 | - 55.0 | - 3.29 | 114086 | 49628 | Yuan/ton | [3] 2. Market Review - Last week, coking coal and coke futures were weak. The mine start - up rate increased month - on - month, with continuous increases in coking coal production and supply. Downstream coking enterprises had high coking coal inventories and reduced purchasing willingness. Steel mills' hot metal was in a downward cycle, with limited demand support, leading to a weakening of futures prices [5]. - Downstream: Steel mills' hot metal production decreased, and the demand for coal and coke slowed down. The daily average coke output increased slightly, inventory declined, and available days decreased. The profitability rate of steel mills last week was 82.19%, a decrease of 0.62 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 0.26 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot metal output was 236.28 tons, a decrease of 0.60 tons month - on - month and an increase of 0.48 tons year - on - year. The daily average coke output was 46.22 (month - on - month + 0.05) tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 85.23% (+0.09). Coke inventory was 622.34 (- 0.06) tons, and the available days of coke were 11.05 (- 0.01) days [5]. - Middle - stream: The profitability of coking enterprises improved due to the weakening of coking coal prices, but production remained poor with a month - on - month decrease in coke output. The national average profit per ton of coke was 19 (month - on - month + 53) Yuan/ton. Last week, the capacity utilization rate was 71.71% (+0.07%), and the daily average coke output was 62.67 (- 0.33) tons [6]. - Upstream: Mine production accelerated, and coking coal output increased. The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 86.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.7%. The daily average output of raw coal was 193.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 tons. Raw coal inventory was 434.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 tons. The daily average output of clean coal was 75.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 tons, and clean coal inventory was 185.9 tons [6]. 3. Industry News - In October, the total social electricity consumption was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%, the first single - month increase of over 10% this year [15]. - The third round and fifth batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections have been fully launched, targeting Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, and several central enterprises, with an on - site inspection period of one month [15]. - Vice - Premier He Lifeng emphasized promoting the improvement of foreign trade quality and efficiency, improving the high - standard logistics system, supporting the high - quality development of the manufacturing industry, and building a unified national market during his research in Hubei and Hunan [15]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the basis trend of coke, the futures and monthly spread trend of steel, the daily average output of independent coking plants and steel mills, capacity utilization rates, daily average hot metal output, various inventory charts, and ton - coke profit charts [9][10][11]

Group 1 - The National Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine announced the public notice for the establishment of the China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences University, which will be submitted to the Ministry of Education for approval [1][2] - The university will be based in Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, and is intended to be a regular undergraduate institution, leveraging the foundation of the Graduate School of the China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences [2][4] - Suzhou has been identified as lacking higher education institutions, with only one local "Double First-Class" university, highlighting the need for more educational resources to support economic development and innovation [2][4] Group 2 - The establishment of the university aligns with Suzhou's "Leap Plan" for higher education, aiming to enhance educational resources and match the city's development needs by 2025 [2] - The strategic cooperation agreement between the Suzhou government and the China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences emphasizes Suzhou's rich cultural heritage in traditional Chinese medicine and its goal to become a hub for medical talent and innovation [4] - The plan aims to create a comprehensive traditional Chinese medicine service system in Suzhou by 2026, addressing gaps in diagnosis, research capabilities, and high-level talent in the field [4]