1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are supported by cost at the bottom but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - Iron ore shipments remain high, with non-mainstream mines as the main source of growth, exerting significant supply pressure and capping price upside. However, iron ore also has upward drivers, and is expected to trade within a range with limited upside after valuation repair [21] - As terminal winter storage approaches, the coking coal inventory structure is expected to improve, and the downside of the coking coal futures may be limited due to the relatively high basis. After the third round of coke price cuts, the cost of dry quenched coke warehouse receipts is about 1700 - 1720, and the driving force for coke valuation repair may weaken temporarily [31] - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak in both supply and demand, with limited upside potential. The demand for ferroalloys is gradually weakening as downstream hot metal production continues to decline. Ferroalloys may follow steel price movements, and while the upside is limited, the downside is also supported by cost [48] - With the increasing expectation of new soda ash production capacity, the expectation of oversupply is intensifying, and the futures price is breaking through the cost. The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further as glass cold repairs accelerate. High inventories in the upstream and midstream restrict the price [65] - From December to before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to undergo cold repairs, which may affect far - month pricing and market expectations. The near - month 01 contract will follow the reality (delivery logic) and be mainly driven by warehouse receipt games, which may become clearer in late December. Currently, the high inventory in the glass midstream needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [89] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3121, 3136, and 3173 respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3287, 3285, and 3301 respectively [4] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the aggregated rebar prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, and other regions were 3327, 3320, 3130, etc. respectively; the aggregated hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Lecong, and other regions were 3270, 3260, etc. respectively [8][10] - **Price Spreads**: On December 24, 2025, the 01 - 05 month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil were - 15 and 2 respectively; the 05 - 10 month spreads were - 37 and - 16 respectively; the 10 - 01 month spreads were 52 and 14 respectively. The 01, 05, and 10 contract spreads between hot - rolled coil and rebar were 166, 149, and 128 respectively [4][15] Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 798, 779.5, and 758 respectively; the 01, 05, and 09 contract bases were - 6.5, 11.5, and 33.5 respectively [22] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Carajás fines, and Rizhao Super Special were 787, 867, and 669 respectively [22] - **Fundamentals**: As of December 19, 2025, the daily average hot metal production was 226.55, the 45 - port inventory was 15512.63, and the 247 - steel mill inventory was 8723.95 [25] Coal and Coke - **Futures Price Spreads**: On December 24, 2025, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coking coal were 165, - 80, and - 85 respectively; the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coke were 219, - 74.5, and - 144.5 respectively [34] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1600, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 [37] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On December 24, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 76, the 01 - 05 spread was - 80, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5330 [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: On December 24, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 88, the 01 - 05 spread was - 70, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5570 [50] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 soda ash contracts were 1184, 1241, and 1117 respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 57, 124, and - 67 respectively [66] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the heavy - soda market prices in North China, South China, and other regions were 1300, 1400, etc. respectively; the light - soda market prices in North China, South China, and other regions were 1250, 1350, etc. respectively [66] Glass - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 glass contracts were 1048, 1145, and 941 respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 97, 204, and - 107 respectively [90] - **Spot Sales**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China regions showed different trends [91]

【现货】 主流矿粉现货价格：日照港（600017）PB粉-4至790元/湿吨，巴混-4至819元/湿吨，卡粉-4持平至870 元/湿吨。 截至12月19日，45港库存15512.63万吨，环比+81.21万吨；日均疏港量环比延续下行趋势，到港量中性 偏高水平下港口库存延续小幅累库。钢厂进口矿库存环-110.25至8723.95万吨，暂未见钢厂明显补库行 为出现，主要由于铁水减产下补库行为不足。 【观点】 截止12月23日收盘，铁矿主力合约对昨收-0.38%(-3)，收于778.5元/吨。 日均铁水产量226.55万吨，环比-2.65万吨；高炉开工率78.47%，环比-0.16%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 84.93%，环比-1个百分点；钢厂盈利率35.93%，环比持平。 【供给】 本期全球发运环比小幅下滑，但整体仍维持高位。全球发运-128万吨至3464.5万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运 总量2814.7万吨，环比减少150.8万吨。澳洲发运量1950.6万吨，环比减少102万吨，其中澳洲发往中国 的量1694.5万吨，环比减少7.6万吨。巴西发运量864.1万吨，环比减少48.8万吨。45港口到港量2646.7万 吨，环 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, but the finished steel prices continued to fluctuate. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within the bottom range. The finished steel prices are under short - term pressure due to export license management but are expected to gradually digest the policy impact. The willingness for winter storage is low this year, and there may not be large - scale restocking. Attention should be paid to the possible marginal impact of the "dual - carbon" policy on the steel industry [2]. - For iron ore, the supply of overseas shipments has decreased, the demand for molten iron has declined, and the port inventory has increased while the steel mill inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to move within an oscillatory range [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the overall macro sentiment has improved. The future market contradictions lie in the direction of the black sector, the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Attention should be paid to possible disruptions from the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to fluctuate following the market, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. - For polysilicon, the supply is expected to decline, the demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. The futures price is unstable, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [17]. - For glass, the demand recovery is weak, and the market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations [20]. - For soda ash, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound is limited. Short positions can be considered [22]. 3. Summary by Catalog Steel - **Market Information** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3128 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.063%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 60,684 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract decreased by 11,933 lots to 1.580041 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3170 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3281 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.122%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 104,293 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract increased by 9846 lots to 1.198397 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price was 3260 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Strategy View** - Rebar's supply and demand both increased this week, and inventory continued to decline, showing off - season characteristics. Hot - rolled coil production dropped significantly, apparent demand decreased slightly, and inventory continued to fall. The export license policy aims to promote the high - quality development of the steel industry. Overall, the terminal demand is weak, the hot - rolled coil inventory pressure is prominent, and steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. The finished steel prices are under short - term pressure due to the policy but are expected to gradually digest it. Winter storage has started in some areas, but the willingness is low [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information** - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 778.50 yuan/ton, down 0.38% (- 3.00). The position increased by 2081 lots to 554,000 lots. The weighted position was 928,000 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 60.70 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.23% [4]. - **Strategy View** - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased. The shipments from Australia and Brazil declined, while those from non - mainstream countries increased slightly. The near - end arrivals decreased. In terms of demand, the daily molten iron output continued to decline, and the steel mill profitability remained stable. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory reached a five - year low. The price is expected to move within an oscillatory range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information** - The main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed at 5822 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 88 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed at 5648 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 52 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy View** - The macro sentiment has improved. For manganese silicon, the supply - demand pattern is not ideal, but most factors are already priced in. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand is basically balanced, and the supply has decreased due to production losses. The future market contradictions lie in the black sector's direction, the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Attention should be paid to possible disruptions from the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information** - The main contract (SI2605) of industrial silicon closed at 8780 yuan/ton, up 2.15% (+ 185). The weighted position decreased by 15,701 lots to 401,013 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 420 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy View** - The price is expected to fluctuate following the market. The weekly output decreased slightly, and the demand from polysilicon weakened. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information** - The main contract (PS2605) of polysilicon closed at 59,225 yuan/ton, up 0.65% (+ 380). The weighted position decreased by 10,996 lots to 223,576 lots. The spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged; the N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; the N - type re - feed material was 52.35 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 6875 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange restricted the daily opening positions from December 25 [14][16]. - **Strategy View** - The supply is expected to decline, but the decrease may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high before the Spring Festival. The futures price is unstable, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information** - The main contract of glass closed at 1028 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, down 0.29% (- 3). The North China large - plate price was 1020 yuan, down 10; the Central China price was 1080 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.558 million boxes, up 331,000 boxes (+ 0.57%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 20,833 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 21,478 short positions [19]. - **Strategy View** - The demand recovery is weak, and the market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations due to insufficient terminal demand and increasing inventory pressure [20]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information** - The main contract of soda ash closed at 1175 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 0.51% (+ 6). The Shahe heavy - soda price was 1137 yuan, up 18. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4993 million tons, up 5000 tons (+ 0.57%), with the heavy - soda inventory down 18,800 tons and the light - soda inventory up 23,800 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 9114 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 10,651 short positions [21]. - **Strategy View** - The downstream demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound is limited due to cost reduction and low profitability. Short positions can be considered [22].

山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年12月24日08时14分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹产量回升、热卷产量环比上周均下降，五大品种产量环比回落，整体库存继续回落。螺纹表观需求有所反弹，五大 品种表观需求整体回落，市场仍处于供需双弱的状态。由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰已过，钢厂产量有望继续缓慢下降。最近几天煤焦价格 大幅反弹，对盘面成本支撑有所抬升。整体来看，在消费淡季，供需双弱，冬储仍需要一段时间才能到来。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，05 合约短 暂跌破震荡区间后快速反弹，目前没有摆脱近期的震荡区间，也没有形成向下的突破。 投资咨询系列报告 操作建议： 多单继续持有，中线交易 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3126 | 7 | 0.22% | 52 | 1.69% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3277 | 8 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder price is 787, down 4 daily and up 7 weekly; PB powder price is 790, down 4 daily and up 7 weekly; Mac powder price is 784, down 3 daily and up 7 weekly; Jinbuba powder price is 743, down 4 daily and up 7 weekly; Mixed powder price is 733, down 2 daily and up 8 weekly; Super special powder price is 672, down 5 daily and up 2 weekly; Roy Hill powder price is 777, down 4 daily and up 7 weekly [1] - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Ba Hun price is 825, down 4 daily and up 5 weekly; Ba coarse IOC6 price is 754, down 10 daily and up 1 weekly; Ba coarse SSFG price is 759, down 10 daily and up 1 weekly [1] - **Other Iron Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate powder price is 875, down 2 daily and up 10 weekly; 61% Indian powder price is 732, down 4 daily and up 7 weekly; 57% Indian powder price is 607, down 5 daily and up 2 weekly; Atlas powder price is 728, down 2 daily and up 8 weekly; KUMBA powder price is 849, down 4 daily and up 7 weekly [1] - **Domestic Iron Ore**: Tangshan iron concentrate powder price is 976, unchanged daily and up 7 weekly [1] 3.2 Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 price is 796.5, down 1.0 daily and up 13.0 weekly; i2605 price is 778.5, down 3.0 daily and up 17.5 weekly; i2609 price is 756.5, down 4.0 daily and up 17.0 weekly [1] - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 price is 104.76, up 0.06 daily and up 3.23 weekly; FE05 price is 102.81, up 0.06 daily and up 3.33 weekly; FE09 price is 100.75, up 0.06 daily and up 3.30 weekly [1]

钢材日报 钢材价格认为下方受到成本端的支撑，但上方又受到需求逐渐转弱和钢材出口预期可能收紧的压制，钢材价格维持震荡的趋势。 | 螺纹、热卷盘面价格. | | | 螺纹、热卷月差. | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025-12-23 | 2025-12-22 | | 2025-12-23 | 2025-12-22 | | 螺纹钢01合约收盘价 | 3116 | 3128 | 螺纹01-05月差 | -12 | 2 | | 螺纹钢05合约收盘价 | 3128 | 3126 | 螺纹05-10月差 | -41 | -33 | | 螺纹钢10合约收盘价 | 3169 | 3159 | 螺纹10-01月差 | 53 | 31 | | 热卷01合约收盘价 | 3280 | 3282 | 热卷01-05月差 | -1 | 5 | | 热卷05合约收盘价 | 3281 | 3277 | 热卷05-10月差 | -14 | -15 | | 热卷10合约收盘价 | 3295 | 3292 | 热卷10-01月差 | 15 | 10 | 螺纹盘面价格. source ...

研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2025 年 12 月 23 日 研究所 黑色研发报告 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 796.5 | 797.5 | -1.0 | I01-I05 | 18.0 | 16.0 | 2.0 | | DCE05 | 778.5 | 781.5 | -3.0 | I05-I09 | 22.0 | 21.0 | 1.0 | | DCE09 | 756.5 | 760.5 | -4.0 | I09-I01 | -40.0 | -37.0 | -3.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 790 | 791 | -1 | 858 | 52 | 68 | 89 | | 纽曼粉 | 792 | 793 | -1 | 866 | 61 | 77 | 98 | | 麦克粉 | 787 | 787 | 0 | 869 | 64 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, No. 05 Contract of Rapeseed Oil, Benzene Ethylene [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, High - Ash Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Steam, PP, PVC, LPG, Shipping [1] Core Views - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. However, further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are showing upward trends, while the fundamentals of some metals like alumina remain weak [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal industry, the production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, which has an impact on the market [1]. - In the stainless - steel industry, raw material prices are stable, inventory is decreasing, and production cuts are increasing [1]. - In the precious - metal and new - energy sectors, gold has reached a new high, and silver, platinum, and palladium are also bullish, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - In the black - metal industry, the black - metal sector has experienced a resonance decline, but there are signs of stabilization [1]. - In the agricultural - product market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and attention should be paid to various factors such as policies, weather, and inventories [1]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, showing different price trends [1]. Summaries by Related Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. Further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly oscillating [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and copper prices are running strongly [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drive and improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals remain weak, and the price will remain low in the short term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has moved up, but the zinc price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits. Attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - Nickel: The US inflation has slowed down more than expected, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has warmed the macro - sentiment. The production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, and the global nickel inventory is still high. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently and may run strongly in the short term. The long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus pattern [1]. - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures continue to rebound, and short - term long - position operations are recommended, waiting for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and coupled with capital speculation, the tin price has strengthened [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Due to loose liquidity and rising geopolitical tensions, the gold price has reached a new high and may run strongly in the short term, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - Silver: Macro - drive, supply - demand imbalance, and ETF position increase are beneficial to silver, but there are risks of short - term sharp fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Driven by macro - factors, supply - demand imbalance, and capital sentiment, they may maintain a bullish pattern in the short term, but there are risks of market fluctuations, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward opportunities [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: The supply - demand situation provides support, the valuation is low, and the price fluctuates strongly in the short term due to sentiment [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the negative news was released, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - High - Ash Coal: Although high - frequency data have improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the origin, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, it is running weakly [1]. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the weak performance of related markets, it is running weakly [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be fully priced, and short - selling the 05 contract is recommended due to the expected high yield in the global main production areas [1]. - Cotton: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, and there is rigid replenishment demand in the downstream. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no drive", and attention should be paid to policies, planting area, and demand in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling in the market. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous drive in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Wheat and Corn: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and the inventory is at a low level. There is expected to be some replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the price [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, it fluctuates greatly. Unilateral operations are recommended to wait and see, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered for the spread [1]. - Log: Affected by the decline of external quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and the supply of raw - material Marey crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Asphalt: The profit is relatively high, and it is affected by factors such as production - demand and cost [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is affected by factors such as inventory increase, cost decline, and policy changes [1]. - Short - Fiber: It closely follows the cost fluctuations [1]. - Steam: It is affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is oscillating within a range [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on the near - month price and the decline of the far - month spread [1]. - Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected, the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose, and the market was affected by various factors [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The gold market shows strength with the Fed's expected rate - cut, suggesting a long - position for gold and a wait - and - see approach for silver [1]. - For base metals, different strategies are recommended for each metal based on their market performance, fundamentals, such as buying copper on dips, expecting aluminum to oscillate in the short - term, and predicting alumina to decline with oscillations [2]. - In the black industry, a wait - and - see approach is generally recommended, with attempts to short certain contracts like螺纹2605 and焦煤09 [5]. - In the agricultural products market, various trading strategies are proposed according to the supply - demand situation of different products, such as trading South American soybean bumper harvest expectations and weak exports for soybeans, and shorting sugar futures [6]. - For energy and chemical products, different trading strategies are given based on the supply - demand balance, including short - term oscillations and long - term improvement for some products, and short - selling for others [7][8]. 3. Summary by Category Gold and Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold prices broke through and strengthened, standing above $4400 per ounce, and domestic gold prices exceeded 1000 yuan. Silver inventories showed different trends in different markets [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Fed officials' statements, geopolitical events, and inventory changes in gold and silver affected the market. For example, the Fed may not cut rates until next spring, and there were changes in gold and silver inventories in different exchanges and ETFs [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long gold and wait - and - see for silver [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The implementation time of US refined copper tariffs may be postponed, and the supply of copper mines remained tight [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.16% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect aluminum prices to oscillate in the short - term within the current high - level range [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.08% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Alumina plants' operating capacity remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect alumina prices to decline with oscillations [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the沪锌2601 contract increased by 0.09% compared to the previous trading day, and social inventories increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: LME zinc inventories increased significantly, and the consumption off - season deepened [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the沪铅2601 contract increased by 0.27% compared to the previous trading day, and social inventories decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of primary lead recovered after maintenance, while the supply of recycled lead decreased significantly. The lead battery start - up rate decreased slightly [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range, with a focus on long - positions at low prices [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract decreased by 1.09% compared to the previous trading day, and the position increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces decreased, and social inventories decreased. The demand from related industries remained stable [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate weakly in the range of 8000 - 9000, and adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 increased by 2.7% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of Australian lithium concentrate increased, production increased, and demand decreased in some sectors. December saw inventory reduction [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect short - term price increase with oscillations [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract decreased by 2.32% compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply remained stable, demand decreased, and inventories increased slightly [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider long - positions on dips after the price returns to the spot trading range [4]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The螺纹2605 contract increased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills continued to make losses, production might decline marginally, and the futures were at a large discount [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and attempt to short螺纹2605 [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The铁矿2605 contract decreased by 1.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Iron ore supply and demand were weak, and the port inventory increased [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The焦煤2605 contract increased by 19 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Coking coal supply and demand were weak, and the futures were at a premium [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and attempt to short焦煤09 [5]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The CBOT soybean rebounded overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Global soybean supply - demand is expected to be loose, with strong US soybean crushing and slow exports [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade South American soybean bumper harvest expectations and weak exports, and the domestic market is driven down by cost in the short - term [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices are weak, and spot prices slightly declined [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress slowed down, and downstream demand decreased [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market rose in the short - term [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is in seasonal decline but with year - on - year growth, and demand shows an increase in exports [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats may enter an oscillation phase with product differentiation [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The郑糖05 contract increased by 0.41% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: International sugar prices rebounded slightly, and the domestic market followed with a smaller increase. The long - term global sugar production is expected to increase [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short sugar futures and sell call options [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices are weak, and spot prices increased [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of laying hens decreased, and demand is affected by price changes [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices oscillate, and spot prices show a north - up and south - down pattern [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is still abundant, and demand is expected to increase seasonally [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Energy and Chemical Products LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract continued to decline slightly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure eases, and demand weakens in the agricultural film sector [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for far - month contracts [7]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 decreased by 1.7% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases, demand weakens, and inventory is at a high level [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell or use reverse spreads [7]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PX and PTA prices are at certain levels with a specific basis [7]. - **Fundamentals**: PX supply is high, and PTA has short - term supply decline and medium - term inventory accumulation pressure [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - position PX in the medium - term and look for opportunities to long PTA processing margins in 05 [7]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 decreased by 1.5% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass prices decline, and inventory accumulates. Supply and demand are both weak [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Use reverse spreads [7]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract continued to decline slightly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases, demand weakens, and the export window opens [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for far - month contracts [8]. MEG - **Market Performance**: MEG has a certain spot price and basis [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is high, inventory accumulates, and demand weakens in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Take profit in the short - term and look for inventory reduction opportunities in the medium - term for 05 [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices rose due to short - term supply reduction [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is large, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell crude oil on rallies [8]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract rebounded slightly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is weak in the short - term, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for styrene and related spreads in the second quarter [8]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 decreased by 0.8% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases with new device production, and demand from photovoltaic glass is weak with high inventory [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Use reverse spreads [9].

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月23日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3300 | 3300 | O | 172 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3170 | 3170 | 0 | 42 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3260 | 3270 | -10 | 132 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3126 | 3119 | 7 | 174 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3159 | 3151 | 8 | 141 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3128 | 3120 | 8 | 172 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3270 | 3270 | 0 | -12 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货 (华北) | 3180 | 3180 | 0 | -102 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | ...