1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is weakly stable with prices remaining unchanged on Monday, dominated by rigid - demand purchases, while speculative demand and trading are light. The market's focus may shift to domestic important meetings, but the possibility of major policies in the short - term is low. The pricing weight of the market is increasing. Steel inventories are back to last year's level, but some varieties have serious inventories. The demand lacks explosive power, and the cost shows a structural differentiation [2]. - The improvement in steel demand provides some support for the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. The rising coal price due to northern heating raises the cost of steel and double - silicon, limiting the downward price space. However, the over - supply pattern of double - silicon continues, suppressing the upward price space [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the steel mills have not responded to the second price increase. The spot trading atmosphere is average, and the coking coal auction in the origin has weakened. The supply of coking coal in the Mongolian market is still in short supply. The black - sector internal varieties are difficult to resonate, and the coking coal and coke prices may remain in a shock without new "anti - involution"提法 from domestic major meetings [4]. - There is no obvious driving force for iron ore. The supply is not significantly affected in the short - term. High iron - water production may lead to over - supply in the fourth quarter, and the expected increase in Ximengdu iron ore shipments limits the price ceiling [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Market Conditions**: On October 20, the closing prices of far - month and near - month contracts of steel futures had different changes. The spot prices of Tianjin, Shanghai, and Guangzhou steel remained unchanged, and the Guangzhou steel price decreased by 0.65 yuan/ton. The trading on Monday was mainly for rigid demand, with light speculative demand and trading. The market is waiting for the impact of domestic important meetings [1][2]. - **Macro and Industry Analysis**: Before the APEC meeting, the Sino - US tariff issue is still uncertain. The market's focus may shift to domestic important meetings, but the possibility of major policies in the short - term is low. The economic growth in the third quarter maintained resilience, and the pressure to achieve the annual economic growth target is small. The crude steel output has decreased year - on - year in the first three quarters, and the space for administrative production reduction is limited. The steel inventory is back to last year's level, but some varieties have serious inventories. The demand lacks explosive power, and the cost shows a structural differentiation [2]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a wait - and - see or shock - thinking approach for single - side trading. Observe the opportunity to go long when the spread between rebar and hot - rolled coil of the 01 contract is below 150 for inter - market arbitrage. Roll and take profit for spot - futures reverse arbitrage [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Situation**: The improvement in steel demand provides some support for the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. The rising coal price due to northern heating raises the cost of steel and double - silicon, limiting the downward price space. However, the over - supply pattern of double - silicon continues, suppressing the upward price space [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Market**: The steel mills have not responded to the second price increase. The spot trading atmosphere in the port's domestic market is average. The coking coal auction in the origin has weakened, with more unsuccessful auctions. The coking coal price in the Mongolian market is supported by the shortage of supply [4]. - **Futures Market**: On Monday, the futures market first rose and then fell. The carbon element was still strong, while the iron element was weak. After the holiday, the increase in coking coal supply was limited, and the iron - water output remained high. The market expected stricter safety inspections in the main production areas, resulting in a tight supply - demand situation for spot goods. The steel inventory pressure was large, and the inventory reduction speed was slow. The black - sector internal varieties were difficult to resonate, and the coking coal and coke prices were affected by steel. After the price rose on Friday night, it reached a relatively high level. Pay attention to whether domestic major meetings will have new "anti - involution"提法 [4]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Temporarily wait and see for single - side trading [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: In the short - term, the supply data has not been significantly affected. High iron - water production may lead to over - supply in the fourth quarter. The expected increase in Ximengdu iron ore shipments limits the price ceiling [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The report provides investment outlooks for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. Most commodities are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with ferrosilicon and silicomanganese having cost - based bottom support, and logs expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Investment Outlook**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][6] - **Fundamental Data**: The futures closing price was 767.0 yuan/ton, down 4.0 yuan/ton (-0.52%); the open interest increased by 10,158 lots to 555,584 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Karara fines (65%) rose 1.0 yuan/ton to 902.0 yuan/ton, while the price of Super Special fines (56.5%) dropped 5.0 yuan/ton to 700.0 yuan/ton [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 20, the 5 - year LPR remained at 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR remained at 3%. In September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, with Beijing and Shanghai rising 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen falling 0.6% and 1.0% respectively. Second - tier and third - tier cities also saw price declines [6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [8] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Investment Outlook**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][10][11] - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar RB2601, the closing price was 3,045 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.03%); for hot - rolled coil HC2601, the closing price was 3,215 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.12%). In terms of spot prices, the price of rebar in Beijing rose 10 yuan/ton to 3,100 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled coil in Guangzhou rose 20 yuan/ton to 3,240 yuan/ton [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%; the average daily output was 2.449 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%. From January to September, the crude steel output was 746.25 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. In the first ten days of October, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel increased by 7.5% month - on - month [12][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [14] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Investment Outlook**: Cost - based bottom support, wide - range fluctuations [2][15] - **Fundamental Data**: For ferrosilicon 2601, the closing price was 5,436 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; for silicomanganese 2601, the closing price was 5,738 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The spot price of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia rose 20 yuan/ton to 5,700 yuan/ton [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 20, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions was reported, with some regions having price changes. In September 2025, China's imports of ferrosilicon with a silicon content greater than 55% increased by 38.54% month - on - month and 12.42% year - on - year; exports increased by 16.08% month - on - month and 8.04% year - on - year [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [18] Coke and Coking Coal - **Investment Outlook**: Expectations are volatile, wide - range fluctuations [2][19][20] - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal JM2601, the closing price was 1,216 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton (3.1%); for coke J2601, the closing price was 1,710 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (2.0%). The spot price of Jinquan Meng 5 coking coal increased by 48 yuan/ton to 1,307 yuan/ton [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to the iron ore section, on October 20, the LPR remained unchanged, and in September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in different - tier cities showed declines [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [22] Logs - **Investment Outlook**: Fluctuate repeatedly [2][23] - **Fundamental Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 802.5 yuan, down 0.2% day - on - day and up 1.9% week - on - week; the trading volume decreased by 43.2%. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained mostly unchanged [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other sections, on October 20, the LPR remained unchanged, and in September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in different - tier cities showed declines [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [26]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures showed significant divergence in performance from October 13 to October 17, with precious metals, black metals, and base metals leading gains, while energy, chemicals, and agricultural products experienced collective declines [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil fell by 5.54% and crude oil by 6.34% for the week; in the black metal sector, iron ore dropped by 3.02%, while coking coal and coking coke rose by 1.55% and 0.57%, respectively [1] - Precious metals saw substantial increases, with Shanghai gold rising by 10.90% and Shanghai silver by 10.53% [1] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - The oil market faced multiple bearish pressures, with WTI crude futures falling below $80 and Brent crude near $82 per barrel; domestic crude oil prices dropped by 12.41% over the week [2] - OPEC+ continued its production increase plan, adding 137,000 barrels per day, while U.S. shale oil production showed resilience, slightly increasing to 13.636 million barrels per day [2][3] - Demand weakened significantly, with U.S. refinery utilization dropping by 6.7 percentage points to 85.7%, and Chinese refinery utilization at a low of 81.23% [2] Group 3: Pork Market Trends - Domestic live pig futures continued to decline, with the main contract dropping 3.87% to a three-month low, driven by slow trading sentiment and increased outflow from large-scale farms [4] - The supply side remains robust, with the number of breeding sows at 40.38 million, indicating a sufficient long-term supply base [4][5] - Despite expectations for improved demand due to cooler temperatures, actual sales of pork have not met expectations, leading to continued price pressure [4] Group 4: Economic Indicators - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.3% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.3%, with core CPI rising by 1.0% [6][7] - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by a 4.4% drop in food prices, which accounted for a significant portion of the overall decrease [6] - The export growth rate for September was 8.3%, with a cumulative growth of 6.1% for the first three quarters, indicating a recovery in trade despite challenges with U.S. exports [10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various black - series commodities in the futures market, suggesting that iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, silicon iron, manganese silicon, coke, and coking coal will experience wide - range fluctuations, while logs will have oscillatory and repeated trends [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][7] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's closing price was 773.5 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan/ton (- 0.39%); for futures, the position of l2601 was 535,578 hands, an increase of 27,213 hands. Imported and domestic ore prices mostly declined, with a 5 - yuan/ton drop in most imported ore varieties. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [5]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month. The trend strength is 0 [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][8][9] - **Fundamentals**: For RB2601 of rebar, the previous day's closing price was 3,049 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.16%); for HC2601 of hot - rolled coil, it was 3,219 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.19%). In terms of production and inventory, production of rebar decreased by 2.24 tons, hot - rolled coil by 1.45 tons; rebar inventory decreased by 18.59 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 6.29 tons; apparent demand for rebar increased by 73.74 tons, hot - rolled coil by 24.58 tons [9][10]. - **News**: In early October 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel increased by 7.5%, pig iron by 3.2%, and steel decreased by 8.5%. The trend strength for both is 0 [10][11]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Trend**: Cost - supported at the bottom, wide - range fluctuations [2][13] - **Fundamentals**: For example, the closing price of silicon iron 2511 was 5478, up 102; the closing price of manganese silicon 2601 was 5754, up 8. Spot prices and various spreads also showed corresponding changes [13]. - **News**: On October 16, prices of different grades of silicon iron and manganese silicon in various regions changed. In September, the settlement electricity prices in the main production areas of manganese silicon showed some adjustments. The trend strength for both is 0 [13][15][16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Expectations are repeated, wide - range fluctuations [2][18][19] - **Fundamentals**: For JM2601 of coking coal, the previous day's closing price was 1185.5 yuan/ton, up 34.5 yuan/ton (3.0%); for J2601 of coke, it was 1672.5 yuan/ton, up 30.5 yuan/ton (1.9%). Spot prices and basis spreads also changed [19]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month. The trend strength for both is 0 [20]. Logs - **Trend**: Oscillatory and repeated [2][21] - **Fundamentals**: Closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts showed different degrees of change. Spot prices of various log varieties in different regions were mostly stable [22]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month. The trend strength is - 1 [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating weakly [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating [1] - Coke: Oscillating [1] - Manganese silicon: Weakly oscillating [3] - Ferrosilicon: Weakly oscillating [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The current steel production remains high, inventory accumulates, and supply - demand pressure increases. With the weak data performance and the decline in new RMB loans in September, the short - term steel futures market is expected to continue to move weakly [1]. - Iron ore: Although the supply and demand of iron ore have declined, the demand is still at a high level, which provides strong support for prices. Under the influence of multiple factors, the short - term ore price is expected to continue to oscillate [1]. - Coking coal: The supply of coking coal is basically stable, and the market sentiment is fair. The iron - making production is still at a high level, but the profitability of coking and steel enterprises is poor, so the short - term coking coal futures market is expected to oscillate widely [1]. - Coke: The coking enterprises' production is stable, and the downstream demand is good, but the steel mills' profits are shrinking, and the coke procurement is still cautious. Therefore, the short - term coke futures market is expected to oscillate widely [1]. - Manganese silicon: The production of manganese silicon has slightly declined from the high level, and the demand is limited. The market is waiting for the final price of the mainstream steel procurement. The cost of manganese ore has fluctuated. The short - term manganese silicon market is expected to fluctuate following the black - commodity sector [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The production of ferrosilicon enterprises remains at a high level, the demand for steel is weak, and the inventory is at a high level in recent years. The short - term ferrosilicon market is expected to oscillate weakly [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures continued to decline. The spot price dropped, and the trading volume decreased. The national building materials production decreased slightly, inventory accumulated, and apparent demand increased slightly. The short - term rebar futures market is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Iron ore**: The iron ore futures price fell. The port spot price decreased. The global, Australian, and Brazilian shipments declined, and the iron - making production decreased slightly. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Coking coal**: The coking coal futures price dropped. The spot price of some coal types increased. The supply was stable, and the demand remained high, but the profitability of downstream enterprises was poor. The short - term coking coal futures market is expected to oscillate widely [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures price declined. The port spot price increased. The coking enterprises' production was stable, and the downstream demand was good, but the steel mills' profits were shrinking. The short - term coke futures market is expected to oscillate widely [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price was strong first and then weak. The spot price in some regions increased. The production decreased slightly, and the demand was limited. The market is waiting for the final price of the mainstream steel procurement. The short - term manganese silicon market is expected to fluctuate following the black - commodity sector [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price weakened in the afternoon. The spot price in some regions increased. The production remained high, the demand for steel was weak, and the inventory was high. The short - term ferrosilicon market is expected to oscillate weakly [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties have different degrees of change, such as the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar being - 56.0, a decrease of 3.0 compared to the previous period [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also shows different trends. For example, the 01 - contract basis of rebar is 156.0, an increase of 7.0 compared to the previous period [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of different varieties and regions have risen and fallen. For example, the Shanghai rebar spot price is 3190.0, a decrease of 20.0 compared to the previous period [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profits and spreads of different varieties have changed. For example, the rebar futures profit is - 111.2, a decrease of 11.7 compared to the previous period [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report provides the closing price trends of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [6][7][10] - **Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis trends of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2022 to 2026, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [17][18][21] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report presents the spread trends of inter - period contracts of various black commodities from 2019 to 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [27][31][32] - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: The report shows the spread trends of inter - variety contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc. [42][43][44] - **Rebar Profit**: The report provides the profit trends of rebar from 2020 to 2025, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [47][48][52] 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes members such as Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional expertise in the black - commodity field [54][55]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The spot market for steel is weak, with poor trading volume and prices. The futures valuation is neutral, and there is currently no driving force for a spot rebound. The strength of demand during the "Silver October" season is insufficient to support price increases, and there are concerns about a negative feedback loop when demand fails to match high production during the off - season [3]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are mainly oscillating due to insufficient driving factors. In the short - term, alloy plants have a high motivation to maintain production, but there are medium - term concerns. Terminal demand is weak, and there is a risk of a decline in iron - making and electric - furnace operations, which may impact the demand for these alloys [3]. - The spot market for coking coal and coke remains strong, while the futures market continues to oscillate. Although the furnace material data is good, the market is worried about the inventory pressure of steel, and the medium - term futures market may continue to seek a bottom. In the short - term, the market is expected to be volatile due to the strong spot performance and potential "anti - involution" policies [3]. - There is no obvious driving force for iron ore. The price increase during the holiday was mainly due to unsubstantiated rumors. The supply data has not been significantly affected in the short - term. High iron - making output throughout the year may lead to an oversupply of steel, which may force steel mills to cut production [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On October 15, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3090.00 yuan/ton (down 26.00 yuan, - 0.83%), HC2605 at 3223.00 yuan/ton (down 28.00 yuan, - 0.86%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3034.00 yuan/ton (down 26.00 yuan, - 0.85%), HC2601 at 3212.00 yuan/ton (down 28.00 yuan, - 0.86%) [1]. - **Spreads**: On October 15, the RB2601 - 2605 spread was - 56.00 yuan/ton (down 13.00 yuan), HC2601 - 2605 was - 11.00 yuan/ton (down 3.00 yuan), etc. The roll - screw spread was 178.00 yuan/ton (down 2.00 yuan), and the screw - ore ratio was 3.91 (down 0.01) [1]. Spot Market - **Steel**: On October 15, the price of Shanghai rebar was 3180.00 yuan/ton (down 20.00 yuan), Tianjin rebar was 3120.00 yuan/ton (down 10.00 yuan), etc. The price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3270.00 yuan/ton (down 10.00 yuan), Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3300.00 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - **Other Materials**: On October 15, the price of Qingdao Port super - special powder was 708.00 yuan/ton (down 15.00 yuan), and the price of Ganjimao Port coking coal was 1260.00 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. Strategies - **Steel**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach or an oscillating trading strategy for single - side trading. Observe the opportunity to go long on the 01 - contract roll - screw spread when it is below 150 for arbitrage. Wait for the opportunity to enter a positive - spread trade in the spot - futures market [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading [3].

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September showed a year-on-year decline of 0.3% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing of its year-on-year decline [1][2][5] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose to 1.0%, marking the first increase in nearly 19 months, driven by improvements in related industry prices [3][4] CPI Analysis - In September, major food prices experienced seasonal increases, particularly in eggs and fresh fruits, contributing to a 0.1% month-on-month rise in CPI [2] - The year-on-year decline in CPI was primarily influenced by a high base from the previous year, with food prices dropping by 4.4%, notably pork, fresh vegetables, and eggs [2][3] - The core CPI's increase was supported by rising prices in household appliances and mobile phones, alongside a significant rise in gold jewelry prices due to international gold price increases [3][4] PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in September, but the decline was less severe than in previous months, indicating a potential stabilization in certain industries [4][5] - The narrowing of the PPI decline is attributed to improvements in supply-demand structures and the effects of macroeconomic policies, with specific industries like coal and black metal showing price increases [4][5] - The recent government measures aimed at regulating market prices and promoting fair competition are expected to further support price stability in various sectors [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [2][7] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to see a slight price correction due to weak current situations and weakening expectations [2][8] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide - range fluctuations with cost as the bottom support [2][13] - Coke and coking coal are expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][16][17] - Logs are expected to have repeated fluctuations [2][19] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of I2601 was 776.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton (-0.70%). The trading volume was 508,365 hands, up 8,566 hands. Imported and domestic ore prices mostly declined slightly, and some basis and spread values changed slightly [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline [6] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view [6] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of RB2601 was 3,034 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-0.85%), and HC2601 was 3,212 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (-0.86%). Spot prices in various regions decreased, and some basis and spread values changed [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: In early October 2025, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel increased by 7.5% month - on - month, pig iron increased by 3.2%, and steel decreased by 8.5%. Steel inventories increased. In August 2025, steel exports decreased slightly, and imports increased [8][10] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese changed, and some basis, near - far month spread, and cross - variety spread values also changed [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in the market, and a large steel mill's inquiry prices for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in October changed compared to September [13] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of JM2601 was 1,151 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton (-0.2%), and J2601 was 1,642 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton (-0.8%). Spot prices were mostly stable, and some basis and spread values changed [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline [18] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke is 0 (neutral), and that of coking coal is 1 (slightly bullish) [18] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Futures contract prices, trading volumes, and open interests of logs changed, and spot prices in different regions were mostly stable [20] - **Macro and Industry News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline [22] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral view [22]

Core Insights - The article highlights significant capital inflows and outflows in various commodity futures, indicating a mixed market sentiment across different sectors [1] Group 1: Capital Inflows - Major inflows were observed in gold (¥560 million), peanuts (¥434 million), soybean (¥259 million), silver (¥226 million), and rebar (¥106 million) [1] - The agricultural and black metal sectors showed a net inflow, particularly in peanuts, soybean, and rebar [1] Group 2: Capital Outflows - Significant outflows were noted in lithium carbonate (¥1.553 billion), polysilicon (¥1.322 billion), industrial silicon (¥698 million), copper (¥566 million), and nickel (¥231 million) [1] - The chemical, non-ferrous metals, and financial sectors experienced notable capital outflows, with a focus on lithium carbonate, polysilicon, copper, rubber, and crude oil [1] Group 3: Sector Analysis - Overall, the commodity futures market experienced a substantial outflow, particularly in the non-ferrous metals and chemical sectors [1] - The financial sector's capital flow is highlighted, with attention on the CSI 1000 index futures and 30-year treasury futures [1]

Core Insights - The recent economic indicators released by the National Bureau of Statistics signal positive trends in China's economy, with both CPI and PPI showing signs of recovery [1][2] Demand Side Analysis - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shifted from flat to rising, with the core CPI returning to a year-on-year increase of 1% after 19 months, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [2][3] - The core CPI's consistent growth over five months reflects an increase in consumer willingness to spend, suggesting healthy growth in overall economic demand [3][4] Supply Side Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown a narrowing year-on-year decline, indicating a steady recovery in domestic demand [4] - The improvement in PPI is linked to enhanced supply-side dynamics, with price declines in certain sectors like black and non-ferrous metals slowing down, while prices for consumer goods such as nutritional foods are rising [4][5] Economic Balance and Future Outlook - The interplay between rising CPI and narrowing PPI reflects a preliminary success in achieving a dynamic balance between supply and demand [5] - Continued macroeconomic policies are essential for maintaining this balance, with expectations of sustained growth in GDP, stable investment, and resilient foreign trade contributing to a more robust economic outlook for China [5]