1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year due to some funds cashing in on their profits, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the short - term, focus on the December Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, and in the long - term, the idea is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the market is expected to be volatile overall under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improving inflation expectations, and pay attention to the impact of stock - bond linkage and liquidity [6]. - For precious metals, the December Fed interest - rate meeting may be a potential negative factor for the strong international silver price. It is recommended to take profits on silver at an appropriate time [7]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be supported in the short - term, but there are also differences. For example, zinc has limited upside potential in the medium - term, while nickel may be range - bound in the short - term [10][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, and iron ore is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [30][32]. - For energy chemicals, rubber can be considered for short - term long positions on dips; oil prices are recommended for a low - buying and high - selling range strategy and short - term waiting; other chemicals have different supply - demand situations and corresponding strategies [50][52]. - For agricultural products, different products have different outlooks. For example, for live pigs, keep an anti - arbitrage idea; for eggs, be aware of the over - valuation of the contract; for soybean meal, it is expected to oscillate [73][75][78]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: Premier Li Qiang emphasized expanding domestic demand. A "polysilicon platform company" was established, Alibaba set up a C - end business group for Qianwen, and Zhongke Shuguang and Haiguang Information will hold an investor briefing on terminating major asset restructuring [2]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious at the end of the year but optimistic in the long - term, and pay attention to important meetings [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the prices of main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS changed, and there were relevant news about the economy and bond issuance. The central bank had a net withdrawal of funds [5]. - **Strategy**: The market is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the driving effect of new policy - based financial instruments and the debt balance limit increment on the fourth - quarter growth [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose. The dovish stance of the potential Fed chair candidate drove the precious metals market, and Trump will conduct the last round of Fed chair interviews [7]. - **Strategy**: The Fed interest - rate meeting may be a negative factor for silver. It is recommended to take profits on silver and pay attention to the price ranges of gold and silver [7]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Before the Fed interest - rate meeting, the dollar index rebounded, the domestic equity market weakened, and copper prices declined. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic basis changed [9]. - **Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to remain high in the short - term, and pay attention to inventory changes and macro events [10]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Due to the approaching Fed interest - rate meeting, market sentiment turned cautious, and aluminum prices fell. Inventory and other indicators changed [11]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to be supported, and pay attention to the price ranges [12]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices fell. There were changes in inventory, basis, and other indicators [13]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, zinc prices are expected to be strong following copper and aluminum, but the medium - term upside is limited [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fell. There were changes in inventory, basis, and other indicators [16]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term due to low domestic delivery inventory and a positive non - ferrous sector atmosphere [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices were weak. Spot premiums and cost prices changed [17]. - **Strategy**: Nickel prices may be range - bound in the short - term, and pay attention to the price ranges [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fell. There were supply and demand issues, such as supply concerns and weak traditional demand [19]. - **Strategy**: After the release of macro risks, tin prices may strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot price index of lithium carbonate rose slightly, and the futures price fell [21]. - **Strategy**: There is no clear trend direction in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the lithium - battery sector [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fell. There were changes in basis, inventory, and other indicators [22]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. Pay attention to supply - side policies and ore policies [23][24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell slightly. There were changes in inventory, basis, and other indicators [25]. - **Strategy**: High inventory pressure remains. Focus on the actual implementation of steel mill production cuts [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices fell. There were changes in inventory, basis, and other indicators [26]. - **Strategy**: Prices may follow aluminum prices, with support from the cost side and pressure from demand and delivery [27]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices fell. There were changes in inventory, basis, and other indicators [29]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and pay attention to the winter storage price and macro factors [30]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices fell slightly. There were changes in inventory, basis, and other indicators [31]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate widely, with a downward pressure in the range [32]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices fell. There were changes in inventory, basis, and other indicators. Soda ash prices fell slightly, and there were changes in inventory and other indicators [33][35]. - **Strategy**: For glass, maintain a bearish view; for soda ash, the market is expected to be weakly oscillating, and maintain a cautious and bearish view [34][35]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices fell slightly, and ferrosilicon prices rose slightly [36]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the macro situation and the price changes of manganese ore and electricity. Manganese silicon has a poor supply - demand situation, while ferrosilicon has a balanced supply - demand [37][38]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fell, and polysilicon prices rose [39][41]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weak, and polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the range [40][42][43]. 3.4 Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were weakly sorted. There were potential positive factors and different views on the rise and fall [45][46]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral - to - bullish idea, and consider short - term long positions on dips and hold hedging positions [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and related refined oil prices fell. There were changes in inventory [51]. - **Strategy**: Do not be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. Adopt a low - buying and high - selling range strategy and wait and see in the short - term [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed, and there were changes in basis and spread [53]. - **Strategy**: The market is expected to be sorted at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [53]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices changed, and there were changes in basis and spread [54]. - **Strategy**: Urea prices are expected to build a bottom in an oscillatory manner. Consider long positions at low prices [54][55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene fell. There were changes in basis, spread, and other indicators [56]. - **Strategy**: Consider going long on non - integrated styrene profits when the inventory inflection point appears [57]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices fell. There were changes in basis, spread, and other indicators [58]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy when the price rises, as the supply is strong and the demand is weak [59]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices fell. There were changes in basis, spread, and other indicators [60]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak in the medium - term, and pay attention to the risk of a rebound [61]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices fell. There were changes in basis, spread, and other indicators [62]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips based on the expected trading [63]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices fell. There were changes in basis, spread, and other indicators [64]. - **Strategy**: PX is expected to accumulate inventory slightly in December. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [66]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices fell. There were changes in basis, spread, and other indicators [67]. - **Strategy**: Go short on the LL1 - 5 spread when the price rises [68]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices fell. There were changes in basis, spread, and other indicators [69]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the change in the supply - surplus pattern at the cost side in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [70]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices were half - stable and half - rising. The supply and demand were in a stalemate [72]. - **Strategy**: Keep an anti - arbitrage idea, and gradually shift from shorting the near - term contract to going long on the far - term contract [73]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were mostly stable with a few rising. The market trading was smooth [74]. - **Strategy**: Be aware of the over - valuation of the egg contract [75]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices fell. Domestic soybean meal prices fell slightly, and the trading volume was good [76]. - **Strategy**: Soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate [78]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Malaysian palm oil export data was poor, and the Argentine soybean export tax was reduced. Domestic oil prices fell [79]. - **Strategy**: Try to go long on palm oil on dips [80]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar futures prices oscillated, and spot prices were stable [81]. - **Strategy**: Be bearish on the international sugar price in the long - term, and wait and see in the short - term [84]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton futures prices oscillated, and spot prices fell slightly [85]. - **Strategy**: It is unlikely for cotton prices to have a unilateral trend [87].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: Narrow - range consolidation. Although steel exports are at a high level and macro - policies have a positive impact, the sharp decline in coking coal and coke prices drags down the market [1]. - Iron ore: Volatility. The supply from Australia is rising while that from Brazil is falling, iron - water production is decreasing, and inventories are accumulating [1]. - Coking coal: Weak volatility. The supply increase is limited, the actual market demand is insufficient, and the downstream mainly makes rigid - demand purchases [1]. - Coke: Weak volatility. The coke output is increasing, and the terminal consumption demand is average, with the impact of weather on transportation [1]. - Manganese silicon: Volatility. The cost is high, production is decreasing, demand is to be boosted, and inventory is accumulating [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: Volatility. The cost is high, supply reduction is limited, and the market expectation is weak [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2605 contract was 3123 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton (1.08% decline), and the position increased by 0.3 million hands. Spot prices declined slightly. In November 2025, China exported 998.0 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 2.0%. The cumulative export from January to November was 10771.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7% [1]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2605 was 760.5 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan/ton (1.1% decline). Australian shipments rebounded, Brazilian shipments decreased, iron - water production decreased, and inventories increased [1]. - **Coking coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2605 contract was 1093.5 yuan/ton, down 46.5 yuan/ton (4.08% decline), and the position increased by 24153 hands. The supply increase was limited, and the actual market demand was insufficient [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1537 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton (3.03% decline), and the position increased by 1550 hands. The coke output increased, and the terminal consumption demand was average [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The main contract price of manganese silicon was 5736 yuan/ton, down 0.42%. The production cost was high, the weekly output decreased by 3.5% for 5 consecutive weeks, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises reached a new high [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract price of ferrosilicon was 5444 yuan/ton, down 0.69%. After the electricity price adjustment in November, the production reduction intention increased. The inventory of 60 sample enterprises reached a new high [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract spreads**: For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 6.0, and the 5 - 10 month spread was - 41.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rebar 01 contract was 163.0, and that of the 05 contract was 157.0 [4]. - **Spot**: The Shanghai rebar spot price was 3280.0 yuan/ton, down 10.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Profit and spreads**: The rebar's on - disk profit was 27.0, and the long - process profit was - 29.1. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 168.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main contract prices**: There are price trend charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 - 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14]. - **Main contract basis**: There are basis trend charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [16][17][18][20][21][22][23]. - **Inter - period contract spreads**: There are spread trend charts of different contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][27][31][33][34][37][38]. - **Inter - variety contract spreads**: There are spread trend charts of main contracts such as hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc. [42][44][45]. - **Rebar profit**: There are profit trend charts of rebar's on - disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [48][49][52]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Assistant Director and Black Research Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [54]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich industry honors [54]. - Liu Xi: Black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis [54]. - Zhang Chunjie: Black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and futures - spot trading [55].

| 焦煤基差(右轴) 大津港:库提价:主焦煤( (家古,A10%. 2000 800 4000 600 3000 400 2000 200 【钢材】区间震荡,等待新驱动 1000 周一期现价格偏弱,不过现货成交略转好。国内政治局会议召开,定调在预期内,暂时没有太多超预期的新亮点，后续还 中央经济工作会议,预计在两周内召开。产业端,周度层面的供需变化偏平稳,上周数据看钢材五材供需更多是供需两弱 压力重新给到炉料;五材中板材去库压力比较突出,对价格上方区间构成压力,以及压制市场参与者的主动持货意愿。此 -200 外,后续预计会有下游适当补库的行为,来释放部分增量买盘,价格低位存在一些支撑。因此,构成了近期黑色板块行情》 ti – EZDC 60-2702 动不大,价格区间震荡的基础。12月可以预见的是铁水产量或许还有一些下降空间,再之后的冬储补库。按照这个产业银 90+700 20-1700 oo 60-1800 60-17202 LO-17202 逻辑链条来线性外推的话,目前需要等待减产逻辑兑现:之后观察冬储补库驱动的启动。当下比较有效的参与 有安全边际的前提下,通过期现头寸兑现一些利润,可重点关注热卷的机会。 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the macroeconomic outlook for China in 2026, focusing on various sectors including the midstream manufacturing industry, real estate, and the overall stock and bond markets. Core Insights and Arguments Economic Growth Projections - The actual GDP growth rate for 2026 is expected to be around 4.8%-4.9%, with nominal GDP growth at approximately 4.5% [5][6][12] - Retail sales growth could reach 4%-4.5% under certain subsidy assumptions, while export growth is projected to maintain resilience at about 5% [5][7] - Fixed asset investment is anticipated to rise from -3.1% this year to a range of 0%-1%, with manufacturing expected to grow by 2% and real estate continuing to decline by -10% to -13% [5][7] Fiscal Policy and Price Trends - Fiscal policy is expected to remain expansionary in 2026, with budget expenditure growth around 5% and new government debt between 1 trillion to 1.5 trillion [6][8] - CPI is projected to gradually rise and turn positive, while PPI trends are uncertain, with potential for stabilization in midstream PPI in the first half of 2026 [6][9][10] Midstream Manufacturing Industry - The midstream manufacturing sector is highlighted as the most promising area, benefiting from a recovery with overseas gross margins surpassing domestic margins for the first time, reaching 25%-30% [13][16] - Demand growth in this sector has outpaced supply growth for over a year, indicating a recovery in return on equity (ROE) [13][16] Stock Market Outlook - A strategic bullish outlook for the stock market in 2026 is maintained, although the pace of valuation increases and the outperformance of the ChiNext index may weaken [21][23] - The focus will shift towards sectors with low valuation percentiles and high dividend yields, such as insurance and home appliances [23][24] Bond Market Perspective - A cautious view on the bond market is expressed, with expectations of rising yields, particularly for ten-year government bonds, which are projected to exceed 2% [26] - The bond market is considered relatively expensive compared to equities, and adjustments are anticipated [26] Additional Important Insights Uncertainties in Policy Implementation - Several uncertainties regarding policy implementation are identified, including the use of special bonds and the structure of long-term special government bonds [8] - The impact of service consumption subsidies on the service sector and overall economic performance remains to be seen [8] Key Timeframes for Investors - Two critical timeframes in 2026 are highlighted: January for CPI expectations and around May for PPI consensus, which are significant for macroeconomic assessments [12] Investment Focus Areas - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with high capacity utilization and low capital expenditure, such as synthetic fibers, black metals, oil and gas, and general equipment [25] - The midstream manufacturing sector is emphasized as the most reliable investment direction due to its current performance and growth potential [20] Future of Real Estate Market - The real estate market's future remains uncertain, with a need for policy support to stabilize prices, especially given the current oversupply situation [11] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the economic outlook, sector performance, and investment strategies for 2026.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market as a whole rose 0.97% last week, with precious metals leading the gain at 3.43%, non - ferrous and black metals rising 2.37% and 0.78% respectively, while agricultural products and energy - chemicals declined 0.32% and 1.08% respectively. The short - term commodity market may fluctuate as the expectation of interest rate cuts has been basically priced in [2][6]. - The short - term precious metals sector may experience high - level fluctuations, the non - ferrous sector may operate stably, the black sector may fluctuate weakly, the energy sector's price center has a downward pressure, the chemical sector may adjust with fluctuations, and the agricultural products and oilseeds sector may fluctuate weakly in the short term [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The overall commodity market rose 0.97% last week. Precious metals led the gain at 3.43%, non - ferrous metals rose 2.37%, black metals rose 0.78%, while agricultural products and energy - chemicals fell 0.32% and 1.08% respectively [2][6]. - **Top - performing and Bottom - performing Varieties**: The top - performing varieties were silver, copper, and pulp, with increases of 7.54%, 6.12%, and 4.85% respectively; the bottom - performing varieties were glass, eggs, and ethylene glycol, with decreases of 5.6%, 5.34%, and 4.17% respectively [2][6]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to decline, and the volatility - reducing varieties were mainly concentrated in the agricultural products and energy - chemicals sectors [2][6]. - **Fund Flow**: The overall market scale increased last week. Only the agricultural products sector had a small net outflow of funds, and most of the inflows were concentrated in the Shanghai copper contract [2][6]. 3.2 Outlook - **General Outlook**: The recent strengthening of the Japanese yen has suppressed the US dollar index. The US core PCE in September was slightly lower than expected, laying a foundation for the Fed to cut interest rates, which is also beneficial to US dollar liquidity. However, the Russia - Ukraine situation has reached a stalemate, bringing uncertainty to the continuous improvement of liquidity. The short - term commodity market may fluctuate [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The weekly initial jobless claims dropped to 191,000, far lower than expected, hitting a new low since September 2022, alleviating market concerns about the sharp deterioration of the labor market. Interest rate cuts have been basically priced in. After silver hit a new high, its upward momentum has slowed down. The short - term sector may experience high - level fluctuations [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The expectation of the US interest rate cut is gradually increasing, and the pressure of the US dollar index on the sector is weakening. The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in December has improved, and the overall macro - environment is neutral to warm. Fundamentally, the inventory continued to decline last week, and the raw material supply remained tight, supporting the sector. However, as the price reached a high level, the support weakened. The short - term sector may operate stably [3]. - **Black Metals**: Last week, the apparent demand for rebar continued to decline, production dropped significantly, and inventory continued to decrease. Steel mills' profits were still poor, and pig iron production continued to fall. There are many maintenance plans for steel mills in December, and pig iron production may further decline in the future. In terms of raw materials, the global iron ore shipment was relatively strong, and the port inventory continued to increase last week; the domestic coking coal supply was relatively stable, but the import volume increased significantly, suppressing coal prices. With the cost moving down, the short - term sector may fluctuate weakly [3]. - **Energy**: Last week, the geopolitical situation further heated up, and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan stalled, weakening the market's expectation of restoring Russian oil exports after reaching an agreement. EIA weekly data showed that US crude oil inventories increased, and gasoline inventories increased significantly more than expected. The news boosted oil prices in the short term, and the increasing probability of the Fed's interest rate cut also had a positive impact on oil prices. However, the expanding supply - demand surplus in the fundamentals still determines that the oil price center has a downward pressure [3]. - **Chemicals**: The polyester terminal weaving load continued to decline, and the supply - demand drive of the industrial chain was limited. There was insufficient drive for short - term price increases, and relevant varieties may adjust with fluctuations. For building materials, PVC continued to accumulate inventory, and the profit of chlor - alkali integration was compressed. The pattern of using alkali to supplement chlorine is not expected to last long. It is possible that PVC enterprises will increase maintenance in the future, alleviating the supply pressure; the glass production capacity continued to be compressed, but some glass factories postponed cold - repair plans, and the actual progress needs to be monitored [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: In the new South American season, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans is normal, while the sowing progress of Argentine soybeans is slow due to weather conditions. The domestic soybean meal spot supply remains loose, suppressing prices. The market currently estimates that Malaysian palm oil inventories will continue to increase in November, with high inventory pressure. The short - term oilseeds sector may fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the data verification of the USDA and MPOB reports [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - Most gold ETFs had positive weekly returns, with returns ranging from 0.78% - 0.87%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 23.4263 billion yuan, with a growth of 0.38%, and the total trading volume was 756,101,805, with a growth of 15.76% [39]. - The energy - chemicals ETF had a weekly return of - 0.67%, with a scale of 16.99 billion yuan and a decrease of 3.47% [39]. - The soybean meal ETF had a weekly return of - 0.59%, with a scale of 26.28 billion yuan and an increase of 0.45% [39]. - The non - ferrous metals ETF had a weekly return of 4.30%, with a scale of 30.11 billion yuan and an increase of 8.10% [39]. - The silver fund had a weekly return of 7.33%, with a scale of 43.47 billion yuan and no change in scale [39]. - The total scale of commodity ETFs was 24.5947 billion yuan, with a growth of 0.52%, and the total trading volume was 1,467,321,985, with a growth of 18.70% [39].

| 焦煤基差(右轴) 大津港:库提价:主焦煤 2000 800 4000 600 3000 400 【钢材】区间震荡,等待新驱动 CAP 2000 周末现货偏弱,现货价格小跌10-20元不等,成交清淡。宏观层面,本周比较重要,将是12月宏观交易的重点博弈周: 降息预期博弈以及国内中央经济工作会议等重要会议:目前看,市场暂时没有做出太多预期交易。产业这端,周度层面的 1000 需结构变化都偏平稳。上周数据看钢材五材供需更多表现为供需两弱。压力或重新给到炉料,五材中板材去库压力比较突 出,对价格上方区间构成压力,以及压制市场参与者的主动持货意愿。此外,后续预计产业端会有一些适当补库的行为, -200 释放部分增量买盘,价格低位存在一些支撑。因此,构成了近期黑色板块行情波动不大,价格区间震荡的基础。12月相对 可以预见的是铁水产量或许还有一些下降空间,再之后的冬储补库,按照这个产业链逻辑备采线性外推的话,目前需要适 00 + 100 20 + 100 70 + 2002 z ++700 60-7707 2024-07 5-02 当等待减产逻辑兑现:之后观察冬储补库驱动的启动。当下比较有效的参与方式是在基差有安全边际 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 中国 11 月末黄金储备增加 3 万盎司，美国石 油钻机数量上升 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-08 晨 国常会研究进一步做好节能降碳工作 报 A 股短期内受保险新规提振，但行情并未大幅放量，总体上资金 仍然处于观望状态。宏观周来临，将为股市定调。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 11 月下旬重点钢企粗钢日产 181.8 万吨 宏观策略（黄金） 中国 11 月末黄金储备增加 3 万盎司 周五金价震荡收跌至 4200 美金下方，日内波动增加，美国 9 月 核心 PCE 同比 2.8%基本符合预期，市场对于本周 12 月利率会 议降息 25bp 也定价充分。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国 11 月物价指数符合预期 综 美国 11 月核心 PCE 物价符合预期，通胀压力放缓，市场风险偏 好回升，美元指数走弱。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 钢价震荡运行，近期五大品种去库尚可，但卷板绝对库存压力 较高。钢价趋势性驱动依然不强。临近年末，市场政策预期升 温，关注预期落地情况。 农产品（豆粕） 阿根廷大豆播种完成 49% 市场仍不确定美豆出口改善程度，此外 USDA 预测明 ...

Metal Market - Domestic base metals generally rose, with the exception of tin, which fell by 0.28%. Copper and zinc both increased by over 2%, with copper rising by 2.19% to a record high of 92,910 CNY/ton, and zinc rising by 2.04% to 23,305 CNY/ton, marking a new high since April 3, 2025 [1] - Aluminum rose by 1.29%, reaching a new high of 22,395 CNY/ton after nine consecutive increases, while other metals saw gains of less than 1% [1] - In the external market, base metals also saw a general increase, with copper leading at a 1.93% rise to 11,705 USD/ton, continuing to set a new historical high [1] Precious Metals - As of 15:04, COMEX gold rose by 0.28% and COMEX silver increased by 2.27%. In the domestic market, Shanghai gold rose by 0.36% and Shanghai silver by 0.45% [2] Macro Environment - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a total of 35.5 billion CNY in central investments for the year, aimed at creating over 1.1 million jobs for low-income individuals [5] - The central bank conducted a 1,398 billion CNY reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 161.5 billion CNY for the day [5] Energy Market - Both domestic oil prices fell slightly, with WTI down by 0.18% and Brent down by 0.08%. However, WTI is expected to record a nearly 2% increase for the week, supported by Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical tensions [11][12]

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面震荡偏强，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3175 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 窄幅整理 | | | 上涨 6 元/吨，涨幅为 0.19%，持仓增加 11.5 万手。现货价格基本平稳，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | | | | 价格持平于 2990 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3240 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.39 万吨。据我的钢 | | | | 铁数据，本周全国螺纹产量环比回落 16.77 万吨至 189.31 万吨，同比减少 33.17 万吨；社库环比回落 23.62 | | | | 万吨至 361.13 万吨，同比增加 59.58 万吨；厂库环比回落 4.05 万吨至 142.68 万吨，同比增加 1.67 万吨； | | | | 螺纹表需环比回落 10.58 万吨至 216.98 吨，同比减少 10.58 万吨。螺纹产量大幅回落，库存降幅有所扩大， | | | | 表需回落，供需数据偏强。近期螺 ...

油价夜盘收涨。市场预期美联储降息，俄乌和平计划进展停滞，削弱了市场对达成协议后恢复俄沟 出口预期。 周四调查显示，尽管OPEC+同意提高11月份产量，但由于一些成员国的停产， OPEC11月 石油产量仍有所下降，故该组织的供应量进一步低于其目标且略低于10月产量。综上，短期内利多 因素占据主导下油价震荡偏强。 【贵金属】 隔夜美国公布周度初请失业金人数降至19.1万人远低于预期，创2022年9月以来新低,缓解劳动力 市场急剧恶化担忧。12月降息已基本定价，贵金属震荡为主，黄金突破前高阻力前贵金属整体不宜 追高。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月05日 (原油) 【铜】 隔夜铜价纪录位置震荡，LME现货升水缩至50美元，美伦溢价400美元以上。昨日国内现铜强跟涨到 91245元，上海升水扩至170元，精废价差扩至5000元以上，而周内SMM社库微减100吨。国内现货 信号及仓量跟踪,短线支持铜价。多单依托MA5均线持有,关注接近记录水平的量价表现。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝上涨。近期资金推涨有色,铝市远期存在偏紧预期，短期供需矛盾有限,铝锭社库维持窄 幅波动，季节性库 ...