| | | | | | | | | 一百百家 小 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 2026/01/22 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | | | | | | | 6000 | | | 400 | | | (元/吨) | | RB261 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar support oil prices, but inventory accumulation limits the upside potential [2]. - Precious metals are likely to remain strong in the medium - term, with short - term adjustments to fix overbought technical indicators [3]. - Most commodities are expected to show a pattern of short - term fluctuations, and investors need to pay attention to supply - demand changes, geopolitical risks, and policy impacts [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: The US strengthens military deployment in the Middle East. Kazakhstan's oil production may be suspended. The IEA raises the 2026 demand forecast, with reduced first - quarter supply surplus. Venezuelan exports are slow, and oil price rebound is limited [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors are dominant. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported in the short - term but pressured in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has winter demand support but faces supply pressure [22]. - **Asphalt**: Military actions in the Middle East and oil price rebounds drive asphalt up. There are concerns about future raw material shortages [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated downward. The medium - term strength remains unchanged, with short - term adjustments [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fell. The US market premium cooled, and a short - position strategy is recommended in the domestic market [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate. The 23,800 - yuan level is supported, and it's advisable to wait and see [5]. - **Zinc**: Supply - side pressure is limited, but high prices have a negative impact on consumption. Zinc is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, with a medium - term short - selling strategy [8]. - **Lead**: The lead price fluctuates between 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton. Low - buying is recommended [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuates at a high level. The negative feedback risk of stainless - steel consumption is increasing, but the short - term is still dominated by policy sentiment, and a long - position strategy is maintained [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices opened high and closed low. A strategy of selling call options at a high level is recommended [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It has risen sharply, but the downstream acceptance is low. The price is in a high - level shock, and risk prevention is needed [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures fluctuate. The supply reduction expectation is controversial, and the demand has no clear increase. The price is expected to fluctuate, and the implementation of major factory production cuts should be tracked [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is light. Production is expected to decline, and the futures fluctuate around 50,000 yuan/ton. Wait for the exchange's guidance [14]. - **Iron and Steel** - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices rebounded slightly. Rebar demand is weak, and hot - rolled coil de - stocking is slow. The market will fluctuate in a range [15]. - **Iron Ore**: The global shipping volume decreased, and the domestic arrival volume declined. The port inventory is increasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [16]. - **Coke**: The price rebounded slightly. The supply is abundant, and it is likely to follow a weak - shock pattern [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rebounded slightly. The supply is abundant, and it is likely to follow a weak - shock pattern [18]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price fluctuated downward. Manganese ore prices rose, and iron - water production decreased. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price fluctuated downward. Affected by policies, the demand is resilient, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [20]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The spot price is weakly stable. Production increases, demand starts, and the long - term decline space is limited [24]. - **Methanol**: The futures fluctuate strongly. Demand decreases, inventory accumulates, but there is support from reduced imports in Q1, and it is expected to be in a stalemate [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: The night - session price rose. Supply decreases, demand increases, and the short - term trend is strong [26]. - **Styrene**: Some domestic producers' sales are good, and the supply is tight, providing support [27]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Supply and demand are both weak. Some markets have supply shortages, but downstream demand is weak [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is weak, and there is a possibility of capacity reduction. Caustic soda is also weak with high inventory [29]. - **PX & PTA**: There is pressure in the short - term, but there are opportunities for PX processing spreads and month - spreads in Q2 [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. There is a short - term inventory accumulation expectation, but improvement is expected in Q2 [31]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle Chips**: Short - fiber follows cost fluctuations, and bottle - chip processing spreads have improved, but long - term capacity pressure exists [32]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: US soybeans fluctuate strongly at the bottom. South American weather is improving, and the focus is on export and weather [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: US bio - fuel policies are positive for soybean oil. Indonesian palm oil policies are uncertain, and Malaysian palm oil supply - demand improves marginally [37]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The external market rises, the domestic supply is tight in the short - term, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [38]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price of domestic soybeans fell. Pay attention to policy and spot guidance [39]. - **Corn**: The supply is relatively sufficient. The futures are expected to fluctuate, and pay attention to sales progress and auctions [40]. - **Livestock and Poultry** - **Pigs**: The futures fell for three consecutive days. The short - term rebound may end, and there may be a low point next year [41]. - **Eggs**: The futures fluctuate. The long - term fundamental improvement is expected, and a long - position strategy is recommended on dips [42]. - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Cotton**: US cotton fell, and Zheng cotton fluctuates at a high level. The demand is stable, and the supply reduction policy has uncertainties [43]. - **Sugar**: International production varies, and domestic production progress is different. The short - term price faces pressure [44]. - **Apples**: The futures price回调. The focus is on demand, and the de - stocking speed may be affected [45]. - **Timber**: The price is low. Low inventory provides support, and it's advisable to wait and see [46]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures fell slightly. The demand is weak, inventory accumulates, and it's advisable to wait and see [47]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Spot prices are expected to decline, and near - term contracts have limited downside. The market will enter an observation period before the Spring Festival, and the focus of far - term contracts is the resumption of navigation [21]. Financial Instruments - **Stock Index**: A - share indexes rose, and the short - term trend is expected to be upward. The medium - term trend depends on the transition to profit - driven [48]. - **Treasury Bonds**: 30 - year treasury bond futures rose. Pay attention to potential curve - flattening opportunities and market warming signals [49].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: Not provided - Silicon Iron: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is in a weak demand situation with low production and inventory accumulation. The iron ore market has a relatively loose supply - demand relationship and is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be weakly volatile due to sufficient carbon supply and low downstream demand. The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are suggested to be shorted on rebounds [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market fluctuates mainly. In the off - season, thread demand declines, production remains low, and inventory accumulates. Hot - rolled coil demand is still resilient, but de - stocking is slow. Steel mill profits are marginally repaired, but blast furnace复产 slows down, and hot metal production declines. Domestic demand is weak, while steel exports remain high. The market is expected to fluctuate in a range [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market is weakly volatile. Global shipments decline month - on - month but are stronger than the same period last year. Domestic arrivals decrease, but port inventories continue to increase. Terminal demand improves in the off - season, and steel mill复产 is disturbed. Steel mill import ore inventories increase but are still low, and there is an expectation of winter storage replenishment. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [3] Coke - Coke prices rebound slightly. Coking profits are average, and daily production decreases slightly. Coke inventories increase slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness improves slightly. Carbon supply is sufficient, downstream hot metal production is at an off - season level. The market expects relevant policies, but prices are likely to be weakly volatile due to high coking coal inventories and high Mongolian coal customs clearance data [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rebound slightly. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is 1371 vehicles. Coking coal mine production increases significantly, and spot auction transactions improve. Terminal inventories increase significantly, and total coking coal inventories rise slightly. Carbon supply is sufficient, downstream hot metal production is at an off - season level. The market expects relevant policies, but prices are likely to be weakly volatile due to high inventories and high Mongolian coal customs clearance data [6] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices decline in a volatile manner. Manganese ore spot prices rise due to the futures market rebound. There are structural problems in manganese ore port inventories. Iron water production decreases seasonally, silicon manganese weekly production and inventories decline slightly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7] Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices decline in a volatile manner. Affected by relevant policies, prices are relatively strong. There are expectations of a decline in power costs and semi - coke prices. Iron water production rebounds to a high - level range, export demand decreases, and metal magnesium production increases. Silicon iron supply decreases significantly, and inventories decline slightly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various black commodities, including steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon. It predicts that the short - term trends of these commodities will be mainly in a state of narrow - range fluctuations or oscillations. For example, steel is expected to have a narrow - range oscillation, while iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price dropped, with the rebar 2605 contract closing at 3111 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton or 0.92% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 13,300 lots. Spot prices also fell slightly, and the trading volume declined. Due to a major explosion at a large steel mill's plate plant and seasonal maintenance of domestic steel mills approaching the Spring Festival, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased by 14,900 tons to 2.2801 million tons last week, and there is a downward trend in the future, which will put pressure on the raw material supply - demand. The decline in iron ore and coking coal prices in recent days has suppressed the overall trend of the black series. However, steel mill production cuts and maintenance will relieve the supply pressure in the steel market to some extent. It is expected that the short - term rebar futures price will mainly operate in a narrow - range oscillation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2605 of iron ore futures fell to 789.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.5 yuan/ton or 0.57% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 360,000 lots and a reduction of 30,000 lots in positions. The prices of mainstream port spot varieties also declined. On the supply side, the shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to decline, while those from other countries increased, and the global shipments decreased. On the demand side, the hot metal output decreased by 14,900 tons to 2.2801 million tons. The inventories at 47 ports and steel mills continued to accumulate. Since the previous ore price has risen to a relatively high level, there is a lack of fundamental support for further upward movement. With the combination of long and short factors, the ore price is expected to show an oscillating trend [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price dropped, with the coking coal 2605 contract closing at 1124 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.5 yuan/ton or 4.3%, and the position increased by 29,998 lots. In the spot market, the price of lean clean coal in Changzhi, Shanxi increased, while the prices of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal and No. 3 clean coal at the Ganqimao Port decreased. On the supply side, the production of coal mines in the production areas is stable, the supply of coking coal is growing steadily, and the overall shipment of coal mines has improved with a continuous decline in inventory. On the demand side, the coking and steel enterprises are in the stage of replenishing inventory, but the procurement rhythm has slowed down slightly. Although there is still an expectation of subsequent replenishment, the procurement is still cautious, and they are resistant to some high - priced coal resources. It is expected that the short - term coking coal futures price will operate in an oscillating manner [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures price dropped, with the coke 2605 contract closing at 1673.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47.5 yuan/ton or 2.76%, and the position increased by 792 lots. In the spot market, the quoted price of port coke decreased. On the supply side, the current operation of coking enterprises is good, the coke output is relatively stable, and they are mainly focused on active shipments. Traders have reduced their purchases considering market risks, and the procurement of downstream steel mills has slowed down, so the coke supply - demand structure is expected to be loose. On the demand side, affected by the seasonal off - season, the overall demand in the steel market is poor, and the daily average hot metal output of blast furnaces is still expected to decline. After the previous replenishment, the inventories in steel mills are mostly at a reasonable level, and the procurement of coke is mainly based on rigid demand. It is expected that the short - term coke futures price will operate in an oscillating manner [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On Tuesday, the manganese silicon futures price oscillated weakly, with the main contract closing at 5760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.89% compared to the previous day, and the position of the main contract decreased by 13,668 lots to 215,200 lots. The market prices of manganese silicon in various regions decreased. Recently, the overall trend of the black sector has been weak, and the prices of coking coal and coke have led the decline, causing the center of the manganese silicon futures price to move down. In terms of fundamentals, the price of manganese ore has been slightly adjusted down. On the supply - demand side, the weekly output of manganese silicon has been continuously decreasing, and the furnace - opening rate in Guangxi last week decreased by 5.4 percentage points to 27%. On the demand side, the steel tender price provides some support for the demand of manganese silicon, but the actual consumption at the terminal is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. In terms of inventory, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises has declined from a high level but is still relatively high year - on - year. Overall, the fundamental support is limited, and the market sentiment is weak. It is expected that the short - term manganese silicon will follow the black sector in a weak oscillating manner [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures price oscillated, with the main contract closing at 5552 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07% compared to the previous day, and the position of the main contract increased by 15,954 lots to 245,600 lots. The aggregated prices of ferrosilicon in various regions decreased in some areas. Recently, the overall trend of the black sector has been weak, but the alloy has been relatively stable, and the center of the ferrosilicon futures price has basically remained flat compared to the previous day, with the position of the main contract increasing for three consecutive days. From a fundamental perspective, according to customs data, China's ferrosilicon exports in December increased by 7.6% month - on - month and 0.85% year - on - year, with an annual cumulative export of 377,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.15%. On the supply side, the overall output of ferrosilicon has been relatively stable recently, and the weekly output is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. On the demand side, during the steel tender period, attention should be paid to the procurement and stocking needs of steel mills, but the actual terminal consumption is limited. On the cost side, the raw material prices have remained stable recently, and the calculated production cost of ferrosilicon by the ferro - alloy online has remained the same week - on - week. In terms of inventory, the inventories of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises and the available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills in December have both decreased month - on - month. Overall, the cost side is relatively stable, the marginal changes in the supply - demand level are limited, and the sentiment is affected by the overall trend of the black sector. It is expected that the short - term ferrosilicon will operate in a weak oscillating manner, and attention should be paid to changes in cost and production start - up [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the latest data and their环比 changes of contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities, including steel (rebar and hot - rolled coil), iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon. It also includes data on profits and spreads between different varieties, such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit, volume - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2021 to 2026, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [6][7][8][10][11][13]. - **3.3.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [15][16][20][22]. - **3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the inter - period contract spread charts of various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [24][25][26][30][32][34][36]. - **3.3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: The report shows the inter - variety contract spread charts of various black commodities, including the volume - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [37][38][39][40]. - **3.3.5 Rebar Profits**: The report presents the profit charts of rebar, including the disk profit of the main rebar contract, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit [42][46]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, along with their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [48][49].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the La Niña phenomenon on global commodity markets, highlighting the increasing uncertainty in pricing due to climate changes and geopolitical factors. It emphasizes the historical correlation between extreme weather events and commodity price fluctuations, indicating that the current weak La Niña may still disrupt supply chains and affect prices across various sectors [3][4][10]. Weather Outlook - A weak La Niña has been established, expected to transition to neutral conditions by spring 2026. The current La Niña is not anticipated to cause widespread cold winters due to global warming trends, but it may still influence global circulation patterns and lead to unusual precipitation anomalies [5][11][16]. - The probability of transitioning to El Niño conditions by the third quarter of 2026 has risen to over 60%, which could increase the frequency of extreme weather events [5][12][22]. Commodity Impact - Weather disturbances are expected to affect different commodity sectors in varied ways, with energy, metals, and agricultural products each responding differently to temperature and precipitation changes [6][35]. Energy Sector - In North America, natural gas prices are expected to rise due to increased heating demand, with NYMEX prices projected to range between $4-5 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) during the off-season [6][36][37]. - European natural gas prices are anticipated to decrease due to low inventory levels despite a warm winter, with TTF prices expected to drop to $9-10 per MMBtu [6][40][42]. Metals Sector - Heavy rainfall may disrupt production and transportation in key mining regions, particularly in Indonesia and South America, leading to increased costs and production interruptions [7][49][50]. - The impact of La Niña on aluminum prices may arise from increased electricity costs due to reduced hydropower generation in affected regions [7][53]. Agricultural Sector - The La Niña phenomenon is expected to have a limited impact on South American soybean production, with Brazil's soybean yield projected to reach 178 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year [8][66][67]. - Palm oil production in Southeast Asia is also expected to remain stable, with short-term bullish expectations despite some localized weather disturbances [8][72].

Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆, showing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The overall demand for steel is weak, with the steel price following the cost center down and mainly fluctuating within a range. The iron ore is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. Coke and coking coal are likely to follow a weakening trend. Silicon manganese and silicon iron need to pay attention to the "anti - involution" impact and cost support [2][3][4][5][7][8] Summary by Category Steel - The steel market is weak. The profit of steel mills has been marginally repaired, but the resumption of blast furnace production has slowed down. The overall domestic demand is weak, and steel exports remain high. The steel price mainly fluctuates within a range [2] Iron Ore - The global iron ore shipping volume has decreased month - on - month, while the domestic arrival volume has declined but is much higher than last year. The port inventory is increasing. The terminal demand has improved in the off - season, and the iron ore is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [3] Coke - The coke price has declined in an oscillatory manner. The coking profit is average, and the inventory has slightly increased. With sufficient carbon element supply and weak downstream demand, it is likely to follow a weakening trend [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price has declined in an oscillatory manner. The production of coking coal mines has increased significantly, and the terminal inventory has increased substantially. It is likely to be weakly volatile due to sufficient supply and weak downstream demand [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price has rebounded after hitting the bottom. The spot price of manganese ore has increased. The demand for silicon manganese has decreased seasonally, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" impact and cost support [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price has rebounded after hitting the bottom. Affected by policies, the supply has decreased significantly, and the demand remains resilient. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" impact and cost support [8]

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面小幅下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3140 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 下跌 23 元/吨，跌幅为 0.73%，持仓减少 2.74 万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | 窄幅震荡 | | | 价格下跌 10 元/吨至 2950 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 20 元/吨至 3230 元/吨，全国建材成交量 | | | | 8.52 万吨。据国家统计局数据，2025 年全国固定资产投资同比下降 3.8%，其中制造业投资同比增长 0.6%， | | | | 基础设施投资同比下降 2.2%，房地产开发投资比上年下降 17.2%。2025 年我国粗钢产量 9.61 亿吨，同比 | | | | 减少 4422 万吨，降幅 4.4%；2025 年我国生铁产量 8.36 亿吨，同比减少 2586 万吨，降幅 3%。12 月投资 | | | | 增速全面下行，粗钢及生铁产量也明显下降，钢材市场处于供需双弱 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the impact of extreme weather events on various commodity markets, particularly focusing on agricultural products, natural gas, and metals due to the ongoing weak La Niña phenomenon and its expected transition to neutral conditions by March 2026 [1][2][4]. Key Insights and Arguments Weather Patterns and Their Impacts - The weak La Niña event is expected to end in March 2026, transitioning to neutral conditions, with a rising probability of El Niño starting in July 2026, reaching nearly 60% by November [1][4]. - Global warming is anticipated to prevent widespread cold winters, although localized cold spells may occur [2]. - The solar cycle's downward trend may increase the risk of extreme weather events over the next three to five years, with frequent switches between La Niña and El Niño phenomena [2]. Agricultural Market Impacts - **Soybeans**: Increased expectations for South American soybean production, with U.S. soybean prices projected to remain between 1,000 and 1,150 cents per bushel, unlikely to break the upper limit [1][5]. - **Palm Oil**: Minimal impact from weak La Niña on palm oil production, with Malaysian production recovering. Short-term bullish outlook for palm oil prices in the first half of 2026, but potential reductions in palm fruit production could occur if a strong El Niño develops [1][5]. - **Wheat**: Delayed sowing in domestic wheat may lead to growth pressures, with increased risks of cold spells and spring droughts. This could elevate new wheat prices in April-May 2026, potentially resonating with corn prices, which are expected to trend upward [1][5]. Natural Gas Market Dynamics - The U.S. natural gas market is influenced by temperature fluctuations, with November 2026 expected to be cold but warming in December, leading to significant consumption volatility [6]. - European natural gas inventories are low, with actual consumption showing a year-on-year decline, leading to downward pressure on prices [6]. - A global LNG supply increase is anticipated in 2026, with new projects in the U.S. and Qatar expected to support U.S. natural gas markets [3][7]. Metal Markets and Weather Effects - The La Niña phenomenon is affecting black metal markets through supply and demand dynamics. Warmer winters are reducing heating and electricity demand, leading to a decline in coal prices [9]. - Brazilian iron ore shipments are expected to continue increasing, exerting pressure on iron ore prices [9]. - The impact of extreme weather on non-ferrous metals includes risks from heavy rainfall and drought, affecting mining operations in regions like Indonesia and Chile [10]. Additional Important Insights - The transition to neutral weather conditions post-March 2026 may lead to increased volatility in commodity prices due to the unpredictable nature of weather patterns [4]. - The interplay between agricultural and energy markets, particularly in terms of pricing and production, is highlighted, with potential for significant price movements based on weather-related supply changes [5][6]. - The need for monitoring extreme weather impacts on mining operations and supply chains is emphasized, particularly in resource-rich regions vulnerable to climate variability [10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Iron Ore**: Expected to experience weak oscillations [2][4]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by emergencies, raw materials drag down finished products [2][7]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: With tightened demand - side expectations, they will have wide - range oscillations [2][11]. - **Coke**: Disturbed by downstream accidents, it will oscillate at a high level [2][15]. - **Coking Coal**: Expected to oscillate at a high level [2][15]. - **Steam Coal**: Market sentiment is weak, and prices will have a short - term weak adjustment [2][19]. - **Logs**: Expected to experience weak oscillations [2][21]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price Movements**: The futures price closed at 794.0 yuan/ton, down 18.0 yuan/ton (-2.22%). Imported and domestic ore spot prices also declined. The basis and some spreads changed [4]. - **News**: On January 19, 2026, the central bank lowered the re - loan and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price Movements**: RB2605 closed at 3,140 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (-1.04%); HC2605 closed at 3,299 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.75%). Spot prices in various regions decreased. Some spreads changed [7]. - **News**: On January 19, an explosion occurred at Baotou Baogang Plate Mill. Steel production and inventory data for December 2025 were released, and export license management was implemented for some steel products [8][9]. Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide - **Price Movements**: Futures and spot prices of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicide declined. There were changes in various spreads [12]. - **News**: In December 2025, China's crude steel output decreased year - on - year. Some steel companies' procurement prices for silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicide were announced [13][14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price Movements**: JM2605 closed at 1,174.5 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton (0.3%); J2605 closed at 1,721 yuan/ton, up 0.2%. Spot prices were mostly stable, and some spreads changed [15]. - **News**: On January 19, the CCI metallurgical coal index was released, and the coking coal online auction had a low failure rate and rising prices [15]. Steam Coal - **Price Movements**: Domestic and overseas prices, as well as long - term agreement prices, showed a downward trend [19]. - **News**: In December 2025, China's coal production increased month - on - month, coal imports increased significantly, and Indonesia's coal production quota is expected to tighten in 2026 [20]. Logs - **Price Movements**: Futures contract prices declined, and trading volume and open interest changed. Spot prices were mostly stable [22]. - **News**: China's December 2025 RatingDog composite PMI exceeded the boom - bust line [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Markets**: Geopolitical risks, such as Trump's tariff policies and statements regarding Greenland, along with the upcoming Cook hearing, are influencing market risk - appetite. These factors are causing increased volatility in precious metals, US stock index futures, and other financial instruments. For example, the uncertainty around the Cook hearing and Trump's actions are leading to concerns about the Fed's independence and future inflation [11][14]. - **Commodity Markets**: Different commodities are facing various supply - demand situations. In the agricultural sector, South American soybean production is expected to be bountiful, while in the metal and energy sectors, factors like production changes, inventory levels, and geopolitical events are affecting prices. For instance, the potential release of Russian gasoline exports and the production adjustments of First Quantum Minerals in the copper market [32][52][45]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - **News**: Powell will attend the Cook hearing. Geopolitical risks and Trump's tariff policies have increased market risk aversion, driving up precious metals prices [11]. - **Investment Advice**: Short - term precious metals may experience increased volatility. With the gold - silver ratio at a low level, there are opportunities to go long [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Powell's attendance at the Cook case hearing and Trump's ambiguous statement about Greenland are increasing geopolitical risks. The potential dismissal of Cook may raise concerns about the Fed's independence [13][14]. - **Investment Advice**: During the US stock earnings season, volatility is expected to increase, and the US stock market is likely to oscillate at high levels [15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Premier Li Qiang held a symposium, emphasizing high - quality development and the implementation of more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. China's GDP in Q4 2025 increased by 4.5% year - on - year, and the narrowing of price declines has boosted nominal GDP growth [16][18]. - **Investment Advice**: Hold long positions in stock index futures [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - **News**: December economic data was mostly below expectations, with a pattern of weakening overall, strong supply and weak demand, and domestic demand weaker than external demand. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and the probability of continued weakening after the oscillation is relatively high [20][22]. - **Investment Advice**: Be cautious when chasing up or betting on rebounds. Consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - **News**: The price of metallurgical coke in the Lvliang market is stable with a slight upward trend. Downstream steel mills have not responded to the coke price increase proposed by coke enterprises. Short - term spot prices are supported by downstream replenishment, but the upward momentum in the futures market is limited [24]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect short - term oscillations [24]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - **News**: In 2025, China's infrastructure investment decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, and real estate investment decreased by 17.2%. The terminal demand for steel products remains weak, and the fundamentals do not support a significant rebound in steel prices [25][28][29]. - **Investment Advice**: Adopt an oscillatory approach to steel prices. Hedge inventory at high prices if there is a rebound [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - **News**: As of last Thursday, the Brazilian 25/26 soybean harvest rate was 2%. South American soybean production is expected to be abundant. Domestic soybean meal inventory has decreased but remains at a historically high level [31][32]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect weak oscillations in domestic and international futures prices [33]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - **News**: Lead inventories in five major social warehouses increased. The low - inventory risk has been alleviated, and the fundamentals are weakening [34][35]. - **Investment Advice**: Consider short - selling opportunities at high prices. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [37]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - **News**: The zinc price is oscillating. Social inventories are rising, but the absolute increase is not large. Geopolitical risks need to be watched out for [38][39]. - **Investment Advice**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for short - term single - side trading, and do not chase short positions. Wait and see for both monthly spread and internal - external arbitrage [39]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - **News**: The second - phase project of Qingtao Energy's solid - state battery in Chengdu is progressing smoothly. The futures trading rules of lithium carbonate have been adjusted. The demand side is showing signs of strength, but the price transmission issue needs attention [40][41][42]. - **Investment Advice**: Focus on long - position opportunities at low prices after the trading volume and volatility stabilize [43]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - **News**: South Mining Group focuses on gold and copper investments. First Quantum Minerals has lowered its copper production guidance. Geopolitical risks and macro - economic uncertainties are affecting copper prices [44][45][47]. - **Investment Advice**: Adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach. Look for long - position opportunities at low prices in the medium term. Wait and see for arbitrage [48]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - **News**: The LME tin price is in a contango. The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted the tin futures delivery warehouses. Supply uncertainties exist, and demand is weak [49][50][51]. - **Investment Advice**: Pay attention to December customs data, processing fees in Yunnan refineries, and the recovery of consumption [51]. 3.2.9 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - **News**: Russia may lift the gasoline export ban in February. As the Iranian situation cools down, the risk premium of oil prices is expected to decrease [52][53]. - **Investment Advice**: The short - term upward driving force for oil prices is weakening [54]. 3.2.10 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - **News**: The weekly production of domestic liquefied petroleum gas increased slightly. The external market is relatively strong, but the upward space is limited [55]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect price sideways oscillations [56]. 3.2.11 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - **News**: Asphalt refinery inventories decreased, while social inventories increased. Terminal demand is weakening, and the market is expected to be weak before the Spring Festival [56]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect short - term weak oscillations in asphalt prices [57]. 3.2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - **News**: Pure benzene and styrene prices are rising. The increase in styrene is due to unexpected maintenance and export growth. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and US tariff policies [60]. - **Investment Advice**: Focus on long - position opportunities at low prices, but beware of risks such as excessive pure benzene imports and weak terminal purchasing [61]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - **News**: The demand for urea from a sample of compound fertilizer producers in Shandong decreased. Urea production is expected to increase, and inventories are decreasing at a slower pace. Policy and demand factors are influencing prices [62][63]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect short - term oscillations in urea prices. The average price may decline in the next two weeks. Consider long - position opportunities in the 05 contract after the demand recovers [64]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - **News**: The domestic PVC powder market price is slightly weak. The export tax - rebate policy will be cancelled in April, and domestic demand is expected to weaken before the Spring Festival [65][66]. - **Investment Advice**: Be bearish on PVC in the short term [66]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - **News**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong decreased. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. Inventories are high, and the market is under pressure [67][68][69]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect the caustic soda market to be under pressure before the Spring Festival [69].