数据宝统计，截至11:11，中金岭南成交额16.42亿元，创2021年9月14日以来新高。最新股价上涨 6.39%，换手率5.37%。上一交易日该股全天成交额为16.38亿元。（数据宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

今日早盘，A股市场冲高回落，创业板指跌超1%，科创50指数盘中跌超2%。沪深两市半日成交额1.87万亿，较上个交易日缩量3472亿。盘面上热点 较为杂乱，全市场超3600只个股下跌。 下载财联社APP获取更多资讯 准确 快速 权威 专业 7x24h电报 头条新闻 VIP资讯 实时盯盘 从板块来看， 旅游酒店板块表现活跃， 众信旅游2连板，陕西旅游涨停。有色金属板块走高，四川黄金、罗平锌电涨停。商业零售概念局 部拉升，新华百货、新华都双双2连板。 下跌方面， 商业航天、AI应用方向大跌，高位人气股集体退潮， 省广集团、浙文互联、银河电子、金风科技、鲁信创投、杭萧钢构、航天 电子等多股跌停。截至收盘，沪指跌0.6%，深成指跌0.44%，创业板指跌1.02%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The logic supporting copper price increases has not significantly changed, and after the adjustment, there is potential for a rebound. The first quarter is typically a low season, and without new drivers, prices may fluctuate before the Spring Festival. Post-holiday, with resumption of work and tight spot supply, copper prices may rise again. The short-term price range is expected to be Hu copper [94,000, 120,000] CNY/ton and LME copper [12,000, 15,000] USD/ton. The strategy suggests a focus on buying on dips [2][12]. Focus Point 1: Convergence of US-LME Price Spread - Recently, the US-LME price spread has converged, primarily due to delays or cancellations of US copper tariffs, influenced by the postponement of timber tariff increases. The market anticipates potential exemptions for silver tariffs, which may similarly affect copper tariffs. Additionally, US copper imports are concentrated at the end of December, with COMEX inventories reaching 500,000 tons. Future tariff expectations may still fluctuate [5]. Focus Point 2: Continuous Supply Disruptions - Supply disruptions at the mining level continue to be frequent, exacerbating expectations of tight raw material supply. The global copper concentrate production is projected to increase from 1,888 million tons in 2023 to 1,957 million tons by 2026, with a growth rate of 2.3%. However, the balance of supply and demand indicates a deficit of 2.3 million tons in 2023, which is expected to widen to 154.5 million tons by 2025 [6][8][10]. Focus Point 3: High Prices Significantly Suppress Downstream Consumption - High copper prices have led to a notable decline in downstream consumption, with the operating rate of refined copper rods dropping from an average of 64% in December to 48%. Social inventories accumulated nearly 80,000 tons in December, with an additional 54,000 tons in January. The weak performance in consumption limits the upward momentum of prices, indicating that downstream sectors need time to adjust to the current price levels [10][13].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by increasing demand from AI development and tightening supply conditions, particularly for silver and copper [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals ETF (招商 159690) has reached new highs, with a current increase of 4% [1]. - Individual stocks such as Hunan Silver have surged by 8%, followed by Luoyang Molybdenum and Huayou Cobalt [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Chile's National Mining Association reports that copper production is expected to reach 5.4 million tons in 2025 and 5.5-5.7 million tons in 2026, with significant contributions from gold, silver, and molybdenum [2]. - The demand for high-conductivity metals like copper and silver is being driven by the rapid growth of AI, which is increasing electricity needs [3]. - China's stricter silver export licensing, effective January 1, 2026, will limit exports to large state-owned enterprises, exacerbating global silver supply tightness [3]. Group 3: Strategic Metal Trends - The weakening of the US dollar is enhancing the appeal of precious metals, which are being viewed as alternative currencies [5]. - The World Gold Council indicates that by the end of November 2025, non-US countries' official gold reserves will exceed 900 million ounces, valued at approximately $3.82 trillion, closely matching their holdings of US Treasury bonds [7]. - Long-term geopolitical tensions may lead to increased control and reserves of strategic metals, supporting price increases for copper, tungsten, molybdenum, cobalt, and rare earth materials [7]. Group 4: ETF and Index Information - The non-ferrous metals ETF (招商 159690) tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Index, focusing on upstream resource products, with key metals like gold, copper, and aluminum making up nearly 60% of its weight [11].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-15 调控政策加码，碳酸锂价格回落 市场分析 2026-01-14，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于169000元/吨，收于161940元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-3.53%。当 日成交量为589019手，持仓量为452583手，前一交易日持仓量460281手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-6940 元/吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单27158手，较上个交易日变化260手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价158000-168000元/吨，较前一交易日变化3500元/吨，工业级碳酸 锂报价155000-164000元/吨，较前一交易日变化3500元/吨。6%锂精矿价格2200美元/吨，较前一日变化10美元/吨。 继1月13日调整之后，1月14日广期所再次发布公告，碳酸锂期货LC2701合约交易手续费标准为成交金额的万分之 三点二、日内平今仓交易手续费标准为成交金额的万分之三点二，交易指令每次最小下单数量中的每次最小开仓 下单数量为5手、每次最小平仓下单数量为1手，非期货公司会员或者客户单日开仓量不得超过400手。交易所近期 多次调整政策，体现了其 ...

Oil Market - The latest EIA weekly data shows an unexpected increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, indicating significant inventory pressure and a supply surplus that limits the short-term upward potential of oil prices [1] - Oil prices initially rebounded to nearly $67 per barrel due to concerns over US-Iran tensions, but retreated after President Trump indicated a wait-and-see approach regarding the situation in Iran [1] - The global crude oil supply-demand structure for Q1 2026 suggests that unless conflicts escalate, the short-term upside for oil prices is expected to be limited [1] Precious Metals - The US reported a 3% increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for November, the highest since July, and retail sales rose by 0.6%, slightly above expectations, indicating a strong economic backdrop for precious metals [2] - The geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran continue to support the overall strength of precious metals [2] Copper Market - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations, with a focus on geopolitical risks and the impact of tariffs on trade [3] - The current spot premium for copper has narrowed to $44, indicating market adjustments as traders await inventory updates [3] Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is seeing high volatility, with prices testing historical highs but facing challenges from speculative trading and high inventory levels [4] - The profit margin for aluminum production remains above 8000 yuan per ton, prompting producers to consider hedging strategies [4] Zinc Market - The zinc market is witnessing increased capital inflow, leading to heightened bullish sentiment, although high prices are negatively impacting consumption [7] - Zinc prices have recovered all losses from 2025, but there is growing pressure for a price correction, with a focus on support levels around 23,000 yuan per ton [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing active trading, with upstream lithium salt producers shifting sales strategies towards more spot sales [11] - Total market inventory has increased by 300 tons to 110,000 tons, while downstream inventory has decreased, indicating a mixed supply-demand dynamic [11] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market is facing weak supply and demand dynamics, with production cuts in northern regions and reduced demand from the organic silicon sector [12] - Current prices for industrial silicon are stable, but the market outlook remains cautious due to ongoing production adjustments [12] Steel Market - The steel market is showing slight price increases, but demand remains weak, particularly in the real estate sector, leading to cautious market sentiment [14] - Steel production is gradually recovering, but overall demand from downstream industries continues to decline [14] Iron Ore Market - The iron ore market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with increased domestic port inventories and a seasonal decline in demand [15] - The market sentiment is mixed, with structural imbalances persisting and expectations for continued price volatility [15] Fertilizer Market - The urea market is seeing strong price increases driven by improved factory orders and seasonal demand ahead of spring [23] - The methanol market is also showing strength due to geopolitical tensions, although signs of weakening demand are emerging [24] Agricultural Products - The soybean market is under pressure from high import volumes and increased domestic processing rates, with expectations for continued weak price movements [35] - The corn market is experiencing strong fluctuations, with low overall inventory levels and increased demand from downstream users as the Spring Festival approaches [39] Livestock Market - The live pig market is seeing upward price movements, with expectations for continued pressure on supply as the Spring Festival approaches [40] - The egg market is showing signs of strength due to reduced supply and increased demand ahead of the holiday season [41]

Core Viewpoint - The LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing weak fluctuations at high levels, with a current price of $3176 per ton, reflecting a decline of 0.42% from the opening price [1]. Group 1: LME Aluminum Futures Market - On January 15, LME aluminum futures opened at $3187 per ton and reached a high of $3187 per ton and a low of $3154 per ton [1]. - On January 14, the LME aluminum futures closed at $3189.5 per ton, with a slight decrease of 0.20% from the previous day [2]. - The trading data for January 14 shows that the opening price was $3186.5, the highest price was $3225.0, and the lowest price was $3176.0 [2]. Group 2: Aluminum Market Indicators - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was reported at 7.61 on January 14, indicating an import loss of 2514.57 yuan per ton [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported an increase in aluminum futures warehouse receipts to 133,565 tons, up by 32,803 tons from the previous trading day [2]. - As of January 14, the LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 446,575 tons, with canceled receipts decreasing by 2,000 tons, resulting in total aluminum inventory of 492,000 tons, also down by 2,000 tons [2].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant growth, with the popular ETF, Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876), hitting a new historical high and attracting substantial capital inflow [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF has seen a price increase of 3.23%, marking a five-day consecutive rise [1]. - The ETF has attracted a net subscription of 38.4 million units, accumulating a total of 440 million yuan over the past ten days [1]. - Key stocks in the non-ferrous metal sector, such as Huaxi Non-Ferrous and Hunan Silver, have surged over 7%, indicating strong market performance [6]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The non-ferrous metal sector is driven by multiple factors, including global capital expenditure cycles, manufacturing recovery, and improved domestic macroeconomic expectations [4]. - Analysts predict a bull market for the non-ferrous metal industry by 2026, driven by monetary, demand, and supply factors [4]. - The demand for strategic metals like tungsten, molybdenum, and rare earths is expected to rise due to technological revolutions and global resource supply security concerns [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The current market conditions suggest a potential "super cycle" for non-ferrous metals, influenced by the AI technology revolution and the reshaping of global order [3][5]. - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF covers a wide range of sectors, including precious metals, strategic metals, and industrial metals, allowing investors to capture the overall sector's beta performance [7].

Group 1 - Precious metals have shown active performance, with spot silver rising over 7% and reaching a historical high of $93 per ounce, while spot gold has also set a new record at $4,643 per ounce [1] - Huafu Securities noted that escalating regional conflicts have led to fluctuations in gold prices, with deteriorating U.S. manufacturing activity and unexpectedly weak employment data providing key support for gold prices, reinforcing market expectations for further easing policies from the Federal Reserve [1] - As of January 15, 2026, the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) surged by 3.59%, with constituent stocks such as Huaxi Nonferrous Metals up 8.54%, Huayou Cobalt up 8.23%, and Chihong Zn & Ge up 7.82% [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) as of December 31, 2025, include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, Huayou Cobalt, China Aluminum, Ganfeng Lithium, Yun Aluminum, Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and Tianqi Lithium, collectively accounting for 51.65% of the index [2] - The Nonferrous ETF Penghua (159880) closely tracks the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index, which selects 50 securities with significant scale and liquidity in the nonferrous metals sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry [1][2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by multiple factors including global capital expenditure cycles, manufacturing recovery, enhanced monetary attributes, and improved domestic macro expectations [1][2] - The non-ferrous ETF Huabao (159876) has seen a significant inflow of funds, with over 400 million shares net subscribed in real-time and a total of 4.4 billion yuan raised in the last 10 days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector is currently leading among 31 primary industries in terms of net capital inflow, with over 13 billion yuan from major funds [1] Group 2 - The duration of the non-ferrous metals super cycle is expected to last until at least 2026, contingent on the recovery of US dollar credit, strategic stockpiling progress, and the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies [2] - The non-ferrous ETF Huabao (159876) and its linked fund (017140) cover a broad index including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, making it a suitable option for risk diversification in investment portfolios [2] - As of January 14, the latest scale of the non-ferrous ETF Huabao (159876) is 1.369 billion yuan, making it the largest ETF among three tracking the same index in the market [2]