Market Overview - The market opened lower but closed higher, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3352.00, up 0.28%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.93% to 10197.66 [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.29 trillion, a decrease of 174.9 billion from the previous trading day [5] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Communication (up 2.60%), Defense and Military (up 2.57%), and Electric Equipment (up 1.62%) [2] - Conversely, sectors such as Beauty Care and Non-ferrous Metals saw declines, with Beauty Care down 0.96% [2] - Notable concept indices included Chengfei Concept and Large Aircraft, which performed well, while sectors like Soybeans and PEEK Materials lagged [3] Future Outlook - The report indicates that the market is expected to see more incremental policies, particularly in fiscal policy, to enhance economic resilience and stability [5] - Key areas of investment include transportation, energy, water conservancy, and new infrastructure, with a projected total investment of approximately 3 trillion [4] - The recent financial policy announcements aim to release market liquidity and are expected to positively impact large-cap stocks [5]

证 券 研 究 报 告 总量边际改善，优选内需&供给&科技 ——北交所24年年报&25年一季报总结 2025.05.07 证券分析师：刘靖 A0230512070005 研究支持： 吕靖华 A0230124070002 主要内容 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 营收增速重回正增长区间，消费和制造贡献主要增长来源。（1）总量改善：截至25Q1，北交所单季营收增速达+5.3%、环比进 一步提升+0.7pct，已于24Q4重回正增长；对比各板块，北交所和创业板均表现出收入改善弹性，25Q1板块营收增速创业板>北 交所>主板>科创板；（2）消费营收增速亮眼，如美容护理、食品饮料、家用电器等；此外，制造是营收增长主要贡献项，如电 力设备、机械设备、汽车等，其中，25Q1部分光伏和锂电产业链个股收入端已明显改善，如安达科技、同享科技等；（3）25Q1 北证出口型企业仍有韧性，但关税实质影响仍将于后续显现。具体看24年出口占比，汽车、机械设备、基础化工、电力设备等出 口型行业北证比重较高，其中，25Q1汽车行业收入增速明显快于全A两非，如华洋赛车、林泰新材等均高增长。 ◼ 盈利增速降幅大幅收窄 ...

国外 1. 高盛：黄金的表现将继续优于白银 周一，高盛在一份报告中称，黄金将继续跑赢白银，央行需求强劲是推高金银价格比的一个因素。因 此，该行预计白银不会赶上目前正在持续的黄金涨势。高盛还表示，如果经济衰退发生，估计ETF资金 流入的加速将推动黄金价格到年底达到3880美元。该行重申对黄金的结构性看涨观点，基本预期年底金 价为每盎司3700美元，到2026年中期则达4000美元。 2. 高盛：美联储不太可能因为"软数据"疲弱就降息 美国消费者和企业调查显示出一种焦虑的经济情绪，但基础数据尚未显示经济严重放缓。高盛经济学家 写道，美联储不太可能仅根据"软数据"就放松政策，尤其是因为在最近的过去，软数据错误地预示着衰 退即将来临，比如美联储在2022年抗击通胀期间。高盛的团队写道，美联储"在降息之前，也希望看到 劳动力市场和其他硬数据的证据"。这家投行和华尔街其他机构一样，相信美联储将在周三的利率决议 中保持利率不变。 3. 大摩：美联储不会先发制人 摩根士丹利由首席美国经济学家Michael Gapen领衔的分析师团队在一份研报中写道："鉴于美联储预计 通胀将保持坚挺，且关税冲击可能会产生持续的通胀效应，美联储 ...

Core Viewpoint - The traditional stock market saying "May is poor, June is desperate, and July is a turnaround" does not hold true based on statistical analysis of the A-share market from 1991 to 2024, indicating that the calendar effect is a misconception [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The A-share market has shown that from 2009 to 2024, April generally has a low probability of rising, while August tends to have a larger average decline [1] - June and July have relatively high probabilities of rising, contrary to the saying, with May showing a rise probability of less than 50% but not being the lowest month [1] - In the earlier period from 1991 to 2008, October had the lowest probability of rising, while May and June had higher probabilities, further debunking the "poor May" notion [1] Group 2: Sector Focus - In May, the market is expected to shift back to technology growth sectors, with catalysts including updates on AI large models and developments in robotics [2] - Key areas of focus include AI applications in cloud computing, office automation, and healthcare, as well as the ongoing trend of domestic semiconductor production [2] - The low-altitude economy is anticipated to gain momentum following the announcement of pilot cities, with strong expectations for construction and development in related sectors [2] Group 3: Market Performance - Recent market performance showed a broad increase in individual stocks, with nearly 5,000 stocks rising and trading volume expanding to 1.3 trillion, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [3] - Technology sectors such as computers, communications, machinery, media, and electronics led the gains, while defensive sectors like food and beverage showed minimal increases [3]

Market Overview - On May 6, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.13%, the CSI 300 increased by 1.01%, the STAR 50 gained 1.39%, the CSI 1000 climbed 2.57%, the ChiNext Index went up by 1.97%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.7% [4] - The best-performing sectors on May 6 were Computer (+3.65%), Communication (+3.59%), Comprehensive (+3.38%), Machinery Equipment (+3.04%), and Media (+2.82%). The worst-performing sectors were Banking (-0.13%), Food & Beverage (+0.35%), Beauty & Personal Care (+0.43%), Oil & Petrochemicals (+0.66%), and Coal (+0.74%) [4] - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market on May 6 was 13,644.47 billion, with a net inflow of 13.476 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Important Recommendations - The report highlights Huadong Cable (605196) as a leading company in "cables + oil service materials" with promising overseas expansion, particularly in the African electrolytic aluminum project, which is expected to exceed expectations [5] - The recommendation logic indicates that the company is a typical "outbound" enterprise with continuous improvement in overseas capacity layout, and the electrolytic aluminum project is anticipated to double the company's profits [5] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 estimate revenues of 7,377.70 million, 9,925.67 million, and 11,393.83 million, with growth rates of 16.24%, 34.54%, and 14.79% respectively. Net profits are projected at 330.15 million, 752.43 million, and 1,064.84 million, with growth rates of 3.39%, 127.90%, and 41.52% respectively [5] Key Insights - The strategy research indicates a historical pattern in the A-share market from 2010 to 2024, characterized by "April weakness, May not poor, June absolute, and July rebound" [6][7] - In terms of sector performance, May typically sees strong results in Food & Beverage, Pharmaceutical & Biological, Electronics, and Computers, while June favors Electronics, and July benefits cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, steel, basic chemicals, defense, agriculture, and social services [7] - The report suggests that calendar effects may influence the performance of the entire A-share market and sector indices [7]

| 行业名 | 成交量（亿 | 成交量较昨日增减 | 换手率 | 涨跌幅 | 今日主力资金净流入（亿 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 称 | 股） | （%） | （%） | （%） | 元） | | 计算机 | 80.08 | 16.11 | 4.54 | 3.65 | 56.72 | | 电子 | 73.37 | 23.97 | 2.68 | 2.64 | 46.98 | | 非银金 融 | 42.19 | 31.55 | 1.02 | 1.38 | 24.29 | | 机械设 备 | 90.99 | 18.74 | 3.40 | 3.04 | 22.76 | | 有色金 属 | 43.08 | 42.69 | 1.97 | 2.57 | 20.75 | | 通信 | 31.97 | 41.66 | 1.85 | 3.59 | 20.12 | | 电力设 备 | 54.55 | 8.54 | 2.26 | 2.16 | 15.08 | | 汽车 | 53.94 | 4.84 | 2.51 | 2.20 | 13.02 | | 传媒 | 41.10 | 1 ...

- The report discusses the characteristics of broker-recommended stocks for May, highlighting that Gree Electric Appliances, Kingnet Network, Hygon Information, Zijin Mining, and Proya were among the most frequently recommended stocks[2][13][14] - The report notes that the sectors with the highest weight in broker-recommended stocks for May were electronics, food and beverage, automotive, and pharmaceuticals, with electronics having the highest weight at 10.3%[3][14][17] - The report provides a performance review of broker-recommended stocks for April, showing an overall return of -1.0% for the month and a year-to-date return of 3.7%, with new stocks outperforming repeated stocks[4][19][22] - The report introduces the "Kaiyuan Quantitative Preferred Stock Portfolio," which had a return of -5.1% in April and a year-to-date return of 7.6%, outperforming the CSI 500 index by 9.2%[5][24][27] - The report lists the top-performing stocks for April, with Xianda Co., Wancheng Group, and Minshida leading the monthly returns at 64.3%, 62.9%, and 49.5%, respectively[4][22][23] Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. **Model Name: Kaiyuan Quantitative Preferred Stock Portfolio** - **Construction Idea**: The model selects the top 30 new stocks with the highest performance surprise factor (SUE factor) and weights them according to the number of broker recommendations[24] - **Construction Process**: - Select new stocks as samples - Choose the top 30 stocks with the highest SUE factor - Weight the stocks based on the number of broker recommendations[24] - **Evaluation**: The model shows superior stock-picking ability, especially in new stocks with high performance surprises[24] Model Backtest Results 1. **Kaiyuan Quantitative Preferred Stock Portfolio** - **April Return**: -5.1% - **2025 YTD Return**: 7.6% - **Annualized Return**: 20.0% - **Annualized Volatility**: 25.5% - **Return-Volatility Ratio**: 0.78 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 24.6%[27] 2. **All Broker-Recommended Stocks** - **April Return**: -1.0% - **2025 YTD Return**: 3.7% - **Annualized Return**: 10.8% - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.6% - **Return-Volatility Ratio**: 0.46 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 42.6%[22] 3. **New Broker-Recommended Stocks** - **April Return**: -0.9% - **2025 YTD Return**: 7.2% - **Annualized Return**: 13.7% - **Annualized Volatility**: 24.4% - **Return-Volatility Ratio**: 0.56 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 38.5%[22] 4. **Repeated Broker-Recommended Stocks** - **April Return**: -1.1% - **2025 YTD Return**: 1.1% - **Annualized Return**: 8.4% - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.6% - **Return-Volatility Ratio**: 0.36 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 45.0%[22] 5. **CSI 300 Index** - **April Return**: -3.0% - **2025 YTD Return**: -4.2% - **Annualized Return**: 1.3% - **Annualized Volatility**: 21.5% - **Return-Volatility Ratio**: 0.06 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 40.6%[22] 6. **CSI 500 Index** - **April Return**: -3.7% - **2025 YTD Return**: -1.6% - **Annualized Return**: -1.3% - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.9% - **Return-Volatility Ratio**: -0.05 - **Maximum Drawdown**: 37.5%[22]

5月6日，A股放量反弹，科技股全线走强，全市场近5000股上涨。截至收盘，上证指数涨1.13%，深证成指涨1.84%，创业板指涨1.97%。 1.两市主力资金净流入超250亿元 今日沪深两市主力资金开盘净流入45.43亿元，尾盘净流入43.58亿元，两市全天主力资金净流入255.33亿元。 | | | 沪深两市最近五个交易日主力资金流向情况（亿元） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 尾盘净流入 超大单净买入 | | | 2025-5-6 | 255.33 | 45.43 | 43.58 | 195.57 | | 2025-4-30 | -7.13 | -24.01 | -9.94 | 31.79 | | 2025-4-29 | -23.52 | -33.71 | 13.37 | 21.74 | | 2025-4-28 | -318.52 | -149.39 | -39.33 | -145.58 | | 2025-4-25 | 32.18 | -12.86 | -6.26 | 77.98 | | | | 资金净流入居前的行业 ...

Group 1: Tariff Impact Analysis - The report highlights that the actual impact of tariff increases will gradually become evident, with significant concerns regarding the overall tariff rate and its effects on exports and economic growth [1][9][14] - Four scenarios of tariff increases were analyzed, resulting in overall tariff rates of approximately 33.4%, 53.0%, 81.9%, and 105.6% respectively [1][14][18] - The estimated impact on China's overall exports under these scenarios is projected to be a decline of 8.7%, 11.7%, 12.7%, and 12.7%, with actual drag expected to be around 7%-10% when considering potential new transshipment trade and overseas factories [2][16][18] Group 2: Economic Growth Impact - The report estimates that the GDP drag from the four tariff scenarios will be approximately 1.2%, 1.6%, 1.7%, and 1.7%, with actual impacts potentially ranging from 1% to 1.4% when accounting for mitigating factors [2][16][18] - The analysis indicates that the household appliances and light manufacturing sectors will face the most significant pressure, followed by electronics, beauty care, power equipment, machinery, basic chemicals, automotive, textiles, and non-ferrous metals [2][17][18] Group 3: Monthly Market Review - The report notes that in April, global risk appetite experienced significant fluctuations due to unexpected tariff announcements, leading to a sharp decline in stock and bond markets, followed by a gradual recovery [3][19] - A-shares showed a "√" shaped recovery pattern, although most indices ended the month lower, with domestic demand and dividend stocks performing relatively better [3][19][20] Group 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The report anticipates a continuation of the volatile market pattern, influenced by U.S.-China tensions, liquidity conditions, and policy shifts [4][5] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with independent industrial trends, such as domestic AI, smart vehicles, and robotics, while also considering policy-driven sectors like domestic consumption and real estate [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market outlook post "May Day" is optimistic, with expectations for A-shares to likely "catch up" after the holiday [1] - The focus for investment allocation is on technology and dividend themes, which are seen as key areas of interest among analysts [1] - In the context of increasing global geopolitical tensions, dividend assets are recognized for their stabilizing role [1] Group 2 - According to Zhongtai Securities, A-share companies showed improved overall profitability in Q1, but there is significant sectoral divergence [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support in mitigating economic pressures from the US-China trade war [2] - May presents opportunities primarily in technology, consumption, and certain cyclical sectors, with a recommendation to focus on TMT sectors and potential growth areas in consumer demand [2] Group 3 - Huajin Securities highlights that technology and consumption may be the main focus for investment in May, with historical trends showing strong performance in these sectors during this period [3] - The report notes that the "May Day" holiday saw a surge in travel and consumption, benefiting sectors like social services and food and beverage [3] - There is an expectation for technology to yield excess returns in May, driven by industry trends and policy support [3] Group 4 - The report suggests that sectors with strong Q1 performance are likely to outperform in May, including computing, robotics, media, telecommunications, electronics, innovative pharmaceuticals, and electric power [4] - It also recommends low-cost dividend sectors such as large financials and electric power for investment during this period [4] Group 5 - CITIC Construction emphasizes a focus on technology growth and service consumption in the short term, with a market outlook indicating a potential shift towards growth stocks [5] - The report suggests a rotational market pattern characterized by "growth-risk-avoidance-consumption" phases [5] - Key sectors to watch include electronics, machinery, computing, automotive, home appliances, agriculture, retail, beauty care, and social services [5]