其二，经济大省将"卯足劲"搞科技。随着中央经济工作会议将我国国际科技创 新中心布局从北京、上海、大湾区，拓围至京津冀、长三角、大湾区三大区域， 2026 年这些地区在政府工作报告中，几乎"清一色"将打造科技创新中心集群置 于全年工作的最领先位置，显示出区域协同创新已成为驱动高质量发展的核心战 略。 当然，"卯足劲"搞科技的同时，还要沉下心来"反内卷"。有趣的是，这些承担 国际科技创新中心建设任务的核心地区，在 2026 年几乎都专门部署了"反内卷" 工作，而许多其他省份则未将其列为重点。可见在创新高地，构建清朗、高效、 可持续的科研与产业生态的重要作用。 其三，地方的"促消费"虽然作为重点工作部署，但并非当务之急。尽管各地均对 国家层面提出的消费品以旧换新、清理消费领域不合理限制、丰富服务消费供给 等政策进一步落实安排，但对比 2025 年地方政府工作报告来看，今年各地对"扩 内需、促消费"相关任务的次序安排，多数保持稳定或有所后移（包括我们此前 报告《提升消费率：中国的四类画像》提到的"乐于消费型"的广东、浙江，其 2026 年工作报告均将内需的工作次序下调）。 在 2026 年开局工作中，地方政府仍将有限 ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2026 年 02 月 04 日 1 月高频数据跟踪 [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 Email:weizheng@lczq.com 证书:S1320524100001 摘要： 生产端看，开工率边际回暖，工业品库存、产能利用率分化。开工率方 面，1 月，247 家高炉开工率 78.96%，略有抬升，但仍偏弱；电炉开工 率、螺纹钢开工率分别为 62.44%、38.77%，高于上月均值。水泥磨机开 工率为 27.92%，较上月回落；除沥青外，化工品开工率普遍回升：石油 沥青开工率均值为 26.23%，低于上月；纯碱、PVC、PTA 开工率均值分 别为 84.36%、79.12%、76.10%，均较上月明显提升。库存方面，冷 轧、热卷、浮法玻璃去库，环比增速分别为-3.58%、-7.91%、-7.63%， 螺纹钢、铁矿石、炼焦煤库存上升，环比增速分别为 4.57%、6.65%、 0.36；水泥库容比、水泥发运率环比回落，环比分别为-4.28%、 10.93%。产能利用率方面，焦化产能利用率略下降，录得 76.38%；电炉 产能利用率为 53.74%，较上期均值略提升；水泥熟料 ...

Core Viewpoint - Fangda Special Steel's stock price has shown fluctuations with a recent increase of 2.11%, while the company has experienced a year-to-date stock price rise of 6.79% [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of February 4, Fangda Special Steel's stock price reached 6.29 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.22 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.86%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 14.55 billion CNY [1] - The stock has seen a decline of 0.94% over the last five trading days, but a rise of 6.07% over the last 20 days and 2.61% over the last 60 days [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Fangda Special Steel reported an operating income of 13.23 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 18.45%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 317.39% to 789 million CNY [2] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Fangda Special Steel was 70,100, a decrease of 17.58% from the previous period, with an average of 33,006 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 21.33% [2] - The company has cumulatively distributed dividends of 12.90 billion CNY since its A-share listing, with 308 million CNY distributed in the last three years [3] - Notable new institutional shareholders include China Europe Dividend Advantage Flexible Allocation Mixed A and E Fund Stable Income Bond A, which have entered the top ten circulating shareholders [3]

行 行业周报 资金情绪回落，多品种价格回调 分析师： 张珂 SAC NO： S1150523120001 2026 年 2 月 4 日 钢铁 有色金属 证券分析师 张珂 022-23839062 zhangke@bhzq.com 研究助理 重点品种推荐 洛阳钼业 增持 中金黄金 增持 华友钴业 增持 紫金矿业 增持 中国铝业 增持 近三月行业指数走势图 投资要点： 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 钢铁：后续随着春节前需求季节性走弱，钢材库存或进一步累积，需关注宏观 情绪对钢价影响。 铜：临近春节假期下游需求将减弱，资金情绪回落，短期铜价或调整后震荡运 行。 铝：资金情绪回落，春节前需求预计将走弱，短期铝价或迎来调整后震荡运 行。 黄金：我们认为金价回调后，后续地缘政治风险以及美国国内政治不确定性 （如政府停摆风险）仍有望为金价提供底部支撑，需警惕风险事件缓和对金 价的压力。另外，我们认为美国总统特朗普提名的新美联储主席未来偏鸽派 的可能性更大，后续美联储政策或超出市场预期，有望支撑金价。 锂：抢出口需求叠加供应偏紧预期，容量电价政策也有望改善需求预期，锂价 调整过后有望获得支撑。 稀土：春节前需求或走弱，但现货供 ...

#特朗普对内疯狂氪金#【#特朗普要对稀土等关键矿产发力了#】当地时间2月2日，美国总统特朗普在白 宫亲自宣布，美国要搞一个120亿美元规模的"关键矿产战略储备"项目，项目名字起得也很直白，就 叫"保险库计划"。这事看起来不像喊口号，因为特朗普正在投入真金白银。据他所说，他打算整合20亿 美元私人资本，再加上美国进出口银行100亿美元贷款。该"保险库"将用来替美国制造业囤稀土、镓、 钴等关键矿产。企业提前报清单，政府出面统一采购、集中储存，企业用多少补多少。真"出事"了，可 以直接动用全部库存——看起来就像一个超市。目前已确认参与的企业包括通用汽车、波音、谷歌等 等，基本都是美国制造业的"命门"。特朗普为什么这么急？他在发布会上特地提了一句："我们不想再 经历一年前那种情况。"去年，中方通过稀土出口管控反制美方，直接戳中了美国的供应链软肋，让美 国在自己掀起的关税战中无奈让步。"保险库计划"并不是孤立动作。对内，特朗普"疯狂氪金"，上周刚 刚向美国稀土公司注资16亿美元，更早之前，他已经入股英特尔、拿下美国钢铁"黄金股"、连续投资至 少6家关键矿产企业；对外，他启动"抱团扩容"模式，依托G7等多边机制积极拉拢盟 ...

通知指出，春节前后各类生产经营单位有的抢产量、赶工期，有的停产停工，有的复工复产集中，春运 期间交通运输高位运行，人员密集场所安全风险聚集，冬季低温雨雪冰冻等恶劣天气多发频发，各类风 险隐患交织叠加，安全生产须臾不可放松。 通知要求，要突出问题导向加强火灾隐患排查整治。针对老年人集中居住等场所强化消防安全隐患排查 整治，定期组织开展消防应急演练，坚决防范遏制火灾事故发生；持续深入推进高层建筑、"下店上 宅"以及"三合一""多合一"等经营性自建房重大火灾风险隐患排查整治。 通知强调，要聚焦重点强化烟花爆竹和危险化学品安全防范。采取针对性措施加强生产、经营、运输、 寄递、燃放等全链条安全监管；进一步加大超标违禁产品排查整治力度，严肃查处将礼花弹等专业燃放 类产品销售给个人、生产经营超标违禁产品、将专业燃放类标称为个人燃放类产品等违法违规行为。 （来源：廊坊日报） 转自：廊坊日报 新华社北京2月3日电（记者 黄韬铭）记者3日从应急管理部获悉，国务院安委会办公室当日印发紧急通 知，部署各地区、各有关部门和中央企业切实做好春节前后安全生产工作，强化重大风险防控，坚决防 范遏制群死群伤特别是重特大生产安全事故。 通知要求 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Xinjiang Securities Regulatory Bureau has issued administrative penalties against Xinjiang Bayi Steel Group Co., Ltd. and its related parties for violations of the Securities Law, particularly regarding undisclosed related party transactions involving non-operating funds [1][2][5]. Group 1: Violations and Transactions - In 2022, Bayi Steel received a total of 3,675,121,967.86 yuan from its controlling shareholder, Bayi Steel Group, while transferring 3,642,040,000.00 yuan back to the group [1][8]. - In 2023, the company received 2,809,680,000.00 yuan and transferred 2,770,870,000.00 yuan to the group [1][19]. - In 2024, the amounts were 2,514,395,569.24 yuan received and 2,534,817,067.03 yuan transferred [1][19]. Group 2: Penalties Imposed - Bayi Steel Group was ordered to correct its actions, received a warning, and was fined 4 million yuan [2][5]. - Bayi Steel was also ordered to correct its actions, received a warning, and was fined 3 million yuan [2][5]. - Individual penalties included 350,000 yuan for Wu Bin, 100,000 yuan for Ke Shanliang, 150,000 yuan for Liu Wenzhuang, and 150,000 yuan for Fan Guokang [2][5]. Group 3: Disclosure Obligations - Bayi Steel failed to disclose related party transactions in its annual reports for 2022, 2023, and 2024, constituting significant omissions [1][20]. - The company was required to disclose these transactions under the Securities Law but did not comply, leading to the penalties [1][20]. - Evidence supporting the violations included regular reports, inquiry records, accounting vouchers, and bank transaction records [1][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting treasury bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - Black building materials: Short - term trading for coking coal; range - trading for rebar; buying on dips for glass [1][5][7] - Non - ferrous metals: Waiting and seeing for copper, aluminum, and nickel; range - trading for tin, gold, and silver; expecting lithium carbonate to trade in a range [1][9][11] - Energy and chemicals: Range - trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; temporarily waiting and seeing for caustic soda and soda ash; expecting polyolefins to trade weakly in a range [1][17][19] - Cotton and textile industry chain: Expecting cotton and cotton yarn to adjust in a range; expecting apples and jujubes to trade in a range [1][27][28] - Agriculture and livestock: Short - term shorting opportunities on rebounds for live pigs; hedging post - holiday contracts on rallies for eggs; cautious about chasing high for corn; expecting soybean meal to trade in a short - term range; expecting short - term limited回调 for oils and fats [1][29][34] 2. Core Views - The report provides comprehensive investment suggestions for various futures markets, considering factors such as supply - demand relationships, macroeconomic policies, and geopolitical situations. It emphasizes the need to pay attention to market trends, inventory changes, and policy impacts in different industries [1][5][7] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock indices are expected to trade in a range in the short term and be bullish in the medium to long term. The market shows strong resilience. On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.29%. The defense, machinery, and building materials sectors led the gains, while the banking, petrochemical, and coal sectors declined [5] - Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range. There is no obvious major negative news in the bond market, but there is no further impetus for interest rates to decline. After the repair since the beginning of the year, the space for bond yields to decline is limited [5] Black building materials - Double - coking coal is expected to trade in a range, with short - term trading recommended. The coal market has shown short - term fluctuations recently, but the sustainability of the price increase is limited due to factors such as weak downstream demand and coal mine inventory clearance [6][7] - Rebar is expected to trade in a range. On Tuesday, the rebar futures price traded in a range. The valuation is relatively low, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term [7] - Glass is recommended to be bought on dips. Although there are negative factors such as inventory and demand, the futures price is relatively low, and there are positive news in the real estate sector. Technically, the short - side strength is weakening [7][8] Non - ferrous metals - Copper is expected to have high - level volatility, and waiting and seeing is recommended. Macro factors have dominated the market this week, causing copper prices to fluctuate sharply. The supply is still tight, but the demand is weakening. There is a risk of high - level correction before the Spring Festival [9] - Aluminum is expected to have high - level volatility, and increased waiting and seeing is recommended. The bauxite price is under pressure, and the alumina inventory is increasing. The demand for downstream aluminum processing enterprises is weakening, and short - term high - level volatility is expected [10][11] - Nickel is expected to trade in a range, and waiting and seeing is recommended. Although the Indonesian nickel ore quota reduction has boosted the market, the fundamental situation is weak. Different nickel products have different supply - demand situations, and the price increase drive is insufficient [12][13] - Tin is expected to trade in a range. The domestic tin production and imports have changed. The semiconductor industry is recovering, but the supply of tin concentrate is tight. It is recommended to pay attention to supply and demand changes [13] - Gold and silver are expected to trade in a range. Trump's nomination of the new Fed chairman has led to an increase in hawkish expectations, but the central bank's gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain unchanged. The medium - term price centers of gold and silver are moving up [14][15] - Lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range. The supply is affected by factors such as mine production and imports, and the demand is in the off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to the disturbances in the Yichun mining area [16][17] Energy and chemicals - PVC is expected to have low - level wide - range volatility. The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the domestic demand is weak. However, the export has growth potential. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices [17] - Caustic soda is expected to have low - level volatility, and temporary waiting and seeing is recommended. The demand is weak, the supply pressure is large, and there is short - term delivery pressure. It may have support if the market atmosphere of related commodities improves [19] - Styrene is expected to trade in a range. The inventory is expected to decrease due to factors such as export increases and device maintenance, but the current valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [19] - Rubber is expected to trade in a range. The global supply is in the seasonal reduction stage, and the cost has support. However, the inventory is accumulating seasonally, and the market is expected to trade in a range in the short term [20][21] - Urea is expected to trade in a range. The supply is increasing, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, and the inventory level is relatively low. The price is expected to trade in the range of 1730 - 1830 [22][23] - Methanol is expected to trade in a range. The domestic supply is decreasing, the demand from the olefin industry is weakening, and the traditional downstream demand is also weak. The price is affected by geopolitical and port factors [24][25] - Polyolefins are expected to trade weakly in a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and there is inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival. The price increase space is limited [25][26] - Soda ash: Temporary waiting and seeing is recommended. The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. After the supply contraction, the supply - demand contradiction may be alleviated [26] Cotton and textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust in a range. The global cotton supply and demand situation has changed, with a decrease in production and an increase in consumption. The internal - external price difference is suppressing the domestic market, but the long - term outlook is optimistic [27][28] - Apples are expected to trade in a range. The packaging and shipping in the production areas are slightly accelerating, but the overall market is stable and weak, and some fruit farmers are eager to sell [28] - Jujubes are expected to trade in a range. The acquisition price in the 2025 production season is in a certain range, and the acquisition is based on quality [28] Agriculture and livestock - Live pigs are expected to build a bottom in a range. In the short term, the supply and demand are both increasing, and it is recommended to short on rebounds for off - season contracts. In the long term, the capacity reduction is slow, and it is necessary to be cautious about the price increase [29][30] - Eggs are expected to rebound from a low level. The current valuation is high, and it is recommended to hedge post - holiday contracts on rallies. Considering the high probability of molting and extension of laying periods around the Spring Festival, the supply pressure will be postponed [31][32] - Corn's upward space is limited. In the short term, the market is balanced, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose in the 25/26 season, which restricts the price increase [33][34] - Soybean meal is expected to trade in a low - level range. In the short term, the M2603 contract is expected to trade in a range, and the 05 contract is expected to face pressure at 2800 - 2850. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas weather and domestic policies [35] - Oils and fats are expected to have a limited回调. In the short term, the three major oils and fats are expected to回调 but with limited amplitude. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions on rebounds and wait to buy on dips [36][41]

Core Insights - February has historically been the strongest month for structural steel, with a price increase probability of 76.92% from 2012 to 2015, significantly higher than the annual average of 50% [2][4] - The average monthly return for February is 1.87%, ranking third among all months, indicating strong price growth potential [2][4] - The average maximum increase in February is 102.88%, while the average maximum decrease is 99.38%, showcasing a seasonal tendency for prices to rise more easily than to fall [2][4] Market Dynamics - The price increase in February is driven by multiple factors, including a rebound in demand due to post-Spring Festival construction and manufacturing resumption, leading to improved marginal demand [4] - Supply-side dynamics show that steel mills often reduce inventory before the Spring Festival, leading to lower social inventory levels, which can trigger a replenishment trend post-holiday [4] - Cost factors, such as the prices of iron ore and coke, tend to rise after winter storage ends, providing additional support for steel prices [4] Future Outlook - The "February Law" derived from 13 years of data reflects the resonance between industrial cycles and market sentiment, although it is based on probabilities [5] - Current market conditions suggest that while there is some pre-holiday inventory buildup, it may weaken post-holiday replenishment efforts, with seasonal trends likely extending into March [5] - Overall, the first quarter is expected to see a significant probability of structural steel prices experiencing fluctuations upward [5]

| | | | | | | | | 白金 主要 主要 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 2026/02/04 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | Z0022680 F03117750 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | | RB2610 | HC2610 | 12609 | J2609 | JM2609 | 6000 | | 400 | | | (元/吨) ...