1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - There is no clear core view presented in the provided content. The document mainly shows the Maike Futures basis statistics table, including the basis rate, spot price, and contract price of various futures products. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 100,860, with a主力基差率 of -0.19% and a change of -0.19% compared to the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum**: The spot price of SMM A00 aluminum is 25,410, with a主力基差率 of 0.24% [3]. - **Zinc**: The spot price of SMM 0 zinc is 24,285, with a主力基差率 of 0.64% [3]. - **Lead**: The spot price of SMM 1 lead ingot is 16,655, with a主力基差率 of -0.93% [3]. - **Tin**: The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 392,650, with a主力基差率 of 0.61% [3]. - **Nickel**: The spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 140,950, with a主力基差率 of 0.22% [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price of SMM East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon brick is 8,682, with a主力基差率 of 5.93% [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of steel - linked high - quality battery - grade lithium carbonate is 158,250, with a主力基差率 of 1.63% [3]. - **Gold**: The spot price of AuT + D (Shanghai Gold Exchange) is 1,151.52, with a主力基差率 of -5.26 [3]. - **Silver**: The spot price of Ag(T + D) (Shanghai Gold Exchange) is 22,062, with a主力基差率 of -0.96% [3]. 3.2 Black Industry - **Steel Products** - **Rebar**: The spot price of HRB400 20mm in Shanghai is 3,230, with a主力基差率 of 3.53% [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The spot price of Q235B 4.75mm in Shanghai is 3,275, with a主力基差率 of 1.04% [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of PB powder 61% in Qingdao is 821.5, with a主力基差率 of 3.26% [3]. - **Coke**: The spot price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,896.0, with a主力基差率 of -7.66% [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of main coking coal (Jixian, Mongolia 5) is 1,466.0, with a主力基差率 of 2.99% [3]. - **Power Coal**: The spot price of Shanxi Q500 at Qinhuangdao Port is 801.4, with a主力基差率 of -7.31% [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The spot price of FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 6,002, with a主力基差率 of -7.3% [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The spot price of FeMn68Si18 in Hebei is 5,920, with a主力基差率 of -0.72% [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of 304/2B 2.0*1219 from Angang Lianzhong in Wuxi is 14,495, with a主力基差率 of -0.50% [3]. 3.3 Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils** - **Soybean**: The spot price of domestic first - grade soybean in Harbin is 4,862, with a主力基差率 of -9.26% [3]. - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of ordinary protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,078, with a主力基差率 of 7.07% [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of ordinary rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,470, with a主力基差率 of 4.74% [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang is 9,000, with a主力基差率 of 1.00% [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,440, with a主力基差率 of 6.87% [3]. - **Peanut**: The spot price of Baisha peanuts (45% oil content, 9% water content) in Changtu is 9,200, with a主力基差率 of 13.66% [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,780, with a主力基差率 of 0.99% [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Corn**: The spot price of national - standard first - grade corn at Qishenquan Port is 2,405, with a主力基差率 of 0.38% [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The spot price of corn starch at the factory in Changchun is 2,734, with a主力基差率 of 0.91% [3]. - **Apple**: The spot price of red Fuji apples in Yantai Qixia and Shaanxi Luochuan is 8,530, with a主力基差率 of 1.87% [3]. - **Egg**: The spot price of eggs in Hebei Cangzhou is 3,861, with a主力基差率 of -0.48% [3]. - **Pig**: The spot price of external ternary pigs in Henan is 13,790, with a主力基差率 of -9.0% [3]. - **Cotton**: The spot price of cotton price index 328 in Xinjiang is 16,848, with a主力基差率 of 8.38% [3]. - **Sugar**: The spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou is 5,480, with a主力基差率 of 1.18% [3]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: The spot price of methanol in East China is 2,850, with a主力基差率 of 4.55% [3]. - **Ethanol**: The spot price of ethanol in East China is 4,560, with a主力基差率 of -2.00% [3]. - **PTA**: The spot price of PTA in East China is 6,606, with a主力基差率 of 0.74% [3]. - **Polypropylene**: The spot price of Hangzhou Shaoxing Sanyuan T30S is 8,950, with a主力基差率 of 2.88% [3]. - **Ethylene Benzene**: The spot price of ethylene benzene in East China is 10,350, with a主力基差率 of 3.46% [3]. - **Short - Fiber**: The spot price of Shangfangxiang semi - bright natural white 1.56*38mm short - fiber is 8,070, with a主力基差率 of 0.52% [3]. - **Plastic**: The spot price of Yuyao Zhejiang Petrochemical 7042 is 8,650, with a主力基差率 of 4.46% [3]. - **PVC**: The spot price of East China SG - 5 Xinjiang Zhongtai mainstream is 5,633, with a主力基差率 of 5.40% [3]. - **Rubber**: The spot price of Thai - produced rubber at Qingdao Bonded Area is 17,685, with a主力基差率 of 1.61% [3]. - **20 - Number Rubber**: The spot price of Thai 20 standard rubber at Qingdao Bonded Area is 14,155, with a主力基差率 of 0.62% [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1,363, with a主力基差率 of -1.99% [3]. - **Urea**: The spot price of small - particle urea in Henan is 1,890, with a主力基差率 of -0.80% [3]. - **Paper Pulp**: The spot price of bleached softwood pulp (Silver Star, Chile) is 5,313, with a主力基差率 of 0.25% [3]. - **Crude Oil**: The spot price of Chinese Shengli crude oil in the Pacific Rim is 658.7, with a主力基差率 of -7.26% [3]. - **Fuel Oil**: The spot price of bonded marine fuel oil 380CST in Zhoushan is 3,879, with a主力基差率 of -3.88% [3]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong is 4,000, with a主力基差率 of 2.67% [3]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The spot price of 0.5% low - sulfur marine fuel oil in Singapore is 4,445, with a主力基差率 of 1195% [3]. - **LPG**: The spot price of LPG in Guangzhou is 6,098, with a主力基差率 of -3.85% [3]. 3.5 Stock Index Futures - **CSI 300**: The spot price is 4,687.6, with a主力基差率 of 0.25% [3]. - **SSE 50**: The spot price is 2,966.4, with a主力基差率 of 0.17% [3]. - **CSI 500**: The spot price is 8,359.5, with a主力基差率 of 0.70% [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market is affected by the Iran situation, and the volatility of various commodities is expected to increase [6][9]. - Different commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions, such as some commodities are expected to be bullish, some are expected to be bearish, and some are expected to be volatile [14][16][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank conducted 265 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 140 billion yuan. The US CPI data was released. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond market is expected to face certain pressure, so it is necessary to be cautious [5][6]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the asset valuation is low, and the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and wait for opportunities [8][9]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold rose and silver fell. In February 2026, global physical gold ETFs continued to flow in. The long - term logic of precious metals is still strong, but due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, so it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3.4 Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect the sentiment of futures prices, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, the price is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The rebar price may rebound, but the space may be limited. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities and manage positions [13][14]. 3.5 Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect the sentiment of futures prices, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The increase in iron ore demand may have a positive impact on prices, but the effect may be limited. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities and manage positions [16]. 3.6 Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect the sentiment of futures prices, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. Coking coal supply may increase, and coke demand is under pressure. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and manage positions [18]. 3.7 Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The cost of ferroalloys is at a low level with limited downward space, and the supply is in a state of over - supply. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider taking profit on long positions [20]. 3.8 Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply. The increase in net long positions in the US crude oil futures market shows that US funds are optimistic about the future of crude oil. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has a significant impact on global energy supply, and the crude oil price still has support. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities in the crude oil main contract [21][22]. 3.9 Polyolefins - The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou reported higher prices, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao was adjusted. The downstream factories of polyolefins resumed production, and the demand for replenishment increased. The cost support was enhanced, and the market sentiment improved. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities [24][25]. 3.10 Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. The core driving force is the increase in crude oil prices due to the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, which drives up the cost of butadiene. There are maintenance plans for some devices in March. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [27][28]. 3.11 Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose. The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict drives up the cost of synthetic rubber, increasing the expected substitution demand for natural rubber. The global main producing areas are in the low - production season, and the supply is tight. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [29][30]. 3.12 PVC - The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose. The core driving force is the game between the energy and raw material supply concerns caused by overseas geopolitical conflicts and the seasonal off - season when domestic spring demand has not fully started. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [31][33]. 3.13 Urea - The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose. The market is affected by geopolitical conflicts and international supply - demand mismatches. The global urea production capacity has a hard gap, and China's domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock in the short term [34][35]. 3.14 PX - The previous trading day, the PX2605 main contract rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are compressed, and the downstream polyester and textile terminals are resuming work. PX is expected to enter the de - stocking channel. It is expected to run strongly with fluctuations in the short term, but the price may be volatile, and caution is needed [36][37]. 3.15 PTA - The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose. The PTA processing fee is adjusted, and the supply - demand expectation in March may improve. It is expected to run strongly with PX and oil prices, but the price may be volatile, and caution is needed [38]. 3.16 Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The short - term Middle East geopolitical situation is uncertain, and the cost may change sharply. The polyester industry chain is in a high - mood state. It is expected to run strongly with fluctuations, but the high inventory may limit the increase [39][40]. 3.17 Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2604 main contract rose. The short - fiber supply is gradually increasing, the terminal factory inventory is basically maintained, and the loom load is slightly rising. It is still trading on the cost - side logic, and the market may be volatile, so caution is needed [41]. 3.18 Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, the bottle chips 2605 main contract rose. The bottle chips supply is expected to shrink, the export growth rate is increasing, and the cost support is strong. It is expected to run strongly with fluctuations following the cost side, and caution is needed [42][44]. 3.19 Soda Ash - The previous trading day, the soda ash main 2605 contract rose. The supply of soda ash is abundant, the demand is general, and the inventory is at a high level. The cost support is expected to weaken, and the market is in a state of multi - empty game. Attention should be paid to risk control [45][46]. 3.20 Glass - The previous trading day, the glass main 2605 contract rose. The glass industry is in the stage of active capacity reduction, the inventory is accumulating, and the demand recovery is slow. The cost support is expected to weaken, and the market is in a state of multi - empty game. Attention should be paid to position control [49][50]. 3.21 Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, the caustic soda main 2605 contract rose. The supply of caustic soda is at a high level, and there are maintenance plans for some factories in March. The price has a certain support due to valuation repair and downstream profit transmission, but the increase may be limited. Attention should be paid to the price and sales of liquid chlorine, export orders, and downstream price acceptance [51][52]. 3.22 Pulp - The previous trading day, the pulp main 2605 contract fell. The domestic pulp production may decrease, the port inventory is accumulating, and the downstream demand is weak. The price of softwood pulp fluctuates with the futures, and the cost of hardwood pulp has support, but the downstream demand has not followed up. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil and commodities, downstream paper mill procurement rhythm, and capital trends [53][54]. 3.23 Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract fell. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped, and the supply of lithium carbonate is decreasing. The consumption is in the off - season but not weak, and the inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has short - term support, but the short - term volatility may increase [55]. 3.24 Copper - The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract fell. The US - Iran situation is uncertain, and the domestic electrolytic copper production is restricted by raw materials and maintenance. The demand shows seasonal recovery, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate within a range [56][57]. 3.25 Aluminum - The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract rose. The alumina market is in a state of oversupply, and the geopolitical conflict affects the supply of bauxite. The domestic aluminum supply is increasing, but the inventory pressure is large. The aluminum price is expected to run strongly [59][60]. 3.26 Zinc - The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract fell. The production of refined zinc is increasing moderately, the import is in a net inflow, the downstream consumption is expected to recover moderately, and the zinc price may be under pressure and fluctuate [61][62]. 3.27 Lead - The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract rose. The production of primary lead is gradually recovering, the production of secondary lead is slow to recover, and the battery enterprises are basically fully resumed. The lead price is expected to be in a consolidation state [63][64]. 3.28 Tin - The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract fell. The US - Iran conflict and the military conflict in Congo affect the supply of tin. The demand in the emerging fields supports the price, and the inventory is decreasing. The tin price has support, but the short - term volatility may increase [65][66]. 3.29 Nickel - The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract rose. The production quota of the world's largest nickel mine may be significantly reduced, and the nickel production cost is expected to rise. The downstream consumption is weak, and the refined nickel is in a state of over - supply. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - events [67]. 3.30 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil rose. The USDA report slightly adjusted the global soybean production and inventory, and the soybean supply - demand balance is expected to improve. The domestic soybean import is slowing down, and the oil mill's profit is rising. If the Middle East conflict continues to rise, investors can consider taking profit on long positions [68][69]. 3.31 Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil rose. The Malaysian palm oil inventory decreased in February, and the export volume increased in March. The domestic palm oil is in a state of inventory accumulation. It is recommended to wait and see [70][71]. 3.32 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed rose. China has adjusted the import tariff policy for Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal. The domestic rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil are in a state of de - stocking. It is recommended to wait and see [72][74]. 3.33 Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic Zheng cotton increased in position and rose, but the upward space is limited. The USDA forum expects a global cotton production reduction in the new year, and the cotton price is expected to run strongly in the medium and long term. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil [75][77]. 3.34 Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic Zheng sugar ran strongly with fluctuations. India's sugar production is expected to decrease, which is beneficial to the market sentiment. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase, and the supply is sufficient. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil [78][79]. 3.35 Apples - The previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The current spot market is stable, and the inventory is low and of poor quality. The apple price is expected to run strongly in the medium and long term [81][82]. 3.36 Pigs - The previous trading day, the main pig contract fell. The national pig price is in a state of grinding the bottom, the supply is abundant, and the consumption is weak. Attention should be paid to the slaughter volume, and short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [83][84]. 3.37 Eggs - The previous trading day, the main egg contract rose. The egg supply in March is expected to remain at a high level, and the feed cost may increase. It is recommended to hold the remaining short positions [85]. 3.38 Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, the corn and corn starch main contracts rose. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, the new - season corn cost may be revised down, and the wheat substitution effect may be strengthened. The corn price may face upward pressure in the short term, and put - option opportunities can be considered. Corn starch may follow the corn market [86][87]. 3.39 Logs - The previous trading day, the main log 2605 contract closed flat. The shipping cost of imported coniferous logs increased, and the downstream demand improved. The sentiment in the energy - chemical market eased, and the shipping cost support for the log market may weaken. Attention should be paid to the foreign - market quotation, shipping dynamics, and downstream terminal consumption [88][89].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market is affected by factors such as the Iran situation and geopolitical conflicts, with significant volatility. Different industries have different trends and investment opportunities, and investors need to pay attention to risk control [5][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Bond Market - **Treasury Bonds**: On the previous trading day, the performance of treasury bond futures was divided. The central bank carried out 395 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 52 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will still be some pressure in the future, so it is necessary to be cautious [5]. Stock Index Futures - **Stock Index**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures rose and fell differently. The Shanghai Stock Exchange will increase the supply of institutional inclusiveness for technology - based enterprises. The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the asset valuation is at a low level, and the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the great uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is expected that the market volatility will increase significantly. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and wait for opportunities [7][8]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the great uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is expected that the market volatility will increase significantly, so it is recommended to wait and see [10]. Steel and Iron - Related Products - **Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect the sentiment of futures prices, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, the price is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is in a year - on - year decline, and the supply pressure is reduced. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect the sentiment of futures prices, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The demand for iron ore is suppressed by steel mill production restrictions, and the supply is in a weak pattern. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. In the short term, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect the sentiment of futures prices, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The supply of coking coal is gradually recovering, and the demand is weak. The supply of coke is stable, but the demand is under pressure. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell. The cost of ferroalloys is at a low level and the downward space is limited. The production has been at a low level since 2026, and the overall surplus pressure continues. It is recommended to consider taking profits on long positions after a rapid short - term price rebound [19]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply. The increase in CFTC net long positions shows that US funds are optimistic about the future of crude oil. The limited opening of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's consideration of laying mines support the oil price. It is recommended to pay attention to long - entry opportunities for the main crude oil contract [20][21]. - **Polyolefins**: On the previous trading day, the prices of polyolefins in the market fell. The downstream factories of polyolefins are resuming production, and the rigid demand for replenishment is increasing, which provides support for the price increase. It is recommended to pay attention to long - entry opportunities [23][24]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber futures fell. The cost of synthetic rubber is supported by the increase in crude oil prices and the expected maintenance of some devices in March. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [26]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The increase in crude oil prices drives up the cost of synthetic rubber, and the expected substitution demand for natural rubber increases. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [29]. - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The market is affected by the overseas geopolitical conflict and the domestic seasonal off - season. It is expected that the disk will be in a strong - side shock [31]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, urea futures fell. The market is affected by geopolitical conflicts and international supply - demand mismatches. The domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance, and it is expected to be in a strong - side shock in the short term [33]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. The PXN spread and short - process profit are slightly compressed, and the PX is expected to enter the de - stocking channel. It is recommended to operate cautiously and pay attention to the changes in oil prices and the situation [35]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The PTA processing fee is adjusted, and the supply - demand drive is general. The cost - side support is slightly weakened. It is recommended to operate cautiously and pay attention to the demand resumption and inventory digestion [38]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The short - term geopolitical situation is uncertain, and the cost - side changes may intensify. The high inventory may suppress the short - term trend. It is recommended to be cautious and pay attention to the geopolitical situation and the spring inspection rhythm [39]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The short - fiber supply is gradually increasing, and the terminal factory inventory is basically maintained. The short - fiber inventory is at a low level and the cost is relatively strong, which may provide bottom support. It is recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device dynamics and downstream factory resumption [41]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The bottle - chip supply is expected to shrink, and the export growth rate is increasing. The main logic is still on the cost side. It is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to the restart of maintenance devices and cost changes [42]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, soda - ash futures fell. The supply of soda ash is loose, the inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is general. The cost support is expected to weaken, and the disk is likely to return to the fundamental logic. It is recommended to control risks [44][45]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The glass industry is in the stage of active capacity reduction, the inventory is accumulating, and the demand recovery is slow. The cost support is expected to weaken, and the disk is in a high - position multi - empty game. It is recommended to control positions and pay attention to the Middle - East situation [47][48]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, caustic - soda futures fell. The supply of caustic soda is at a high level, the inventory is increasing, and the downstream demand is mainly rigid. The market may return to the fundamental logic, and the disk fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to control positions and pay attention to the price of liquid chlorine and export transactions [51]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The pulp inventory is not showing a de - stocking trend, the supply changes little, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and commodities, the procurement rhythm of downstream paper mills and capital trends [53]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped, the supply is in a tight balance, and the demand is improving. The price has short - term support, but the short - term volatility may increase [56]. - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, copper futures rose. The US - Iran situation is uncertain, and the supply elasticity of electrolytic copper is limited. The demand shows seasonal recovery, and the copper price is expected to be in a range - bound shock [57]. - **Aluminum**: On the previous trading day, aluminum futures rose, and alumina futures fell. The alumina market is in a supply - surplus pattern, and the cost support is strengthened. The domestic aluminum supply is increasing, but the inventory pressure is large. The aluminum price is expected to run strongly [58]. - **Zinc**: On the previous trading day, zinc futures rose slightly. The production of refined zinc is increasing moderately, the import is in a net inflow, the downstream consumption is expected to recover moderately, and the zinc price may be under pressure and in a shock [60]. - **Lead**: On the previous trading day, lead futures fell slightly. The supply - demand mismatch is conducive to the de - stocking of primary lead, and the lead price is expected to be in a consolidation state [61]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, tin futures rose. The supply of refined tin is in a tight pattern, the demand is supported by emerging fields, and the inventory is decreasing. The tin price has support below, but the overseas situation is uncertain, and the price volatility may increase [63]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, nickel futures fell. The global nickel - mine supply is expected to be tight, the production cost is expected to rise, but the downstream consumption is not optimistic, and the refined nickel is in an oversupply pattern [64]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean - meal and soybean - oil futures fell. The export demand of soybeans is expected to improve, and the supply of soybeans is relatively loose. If the Middle - East conflict continues to rise, it is recommended to consider taking profits on long positions [66]. - **Palm Oil**: On the previous trading day, palm - oil futures fell. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in February, and the inventory decreased. The domestic palm - oil inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to wait and see [68]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: On the previous trading day, rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil futures fell. The import policy of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed products has changed, and the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is at a relatively high or low level. It is recommended to wait and see [70]. - **Cotton**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fluctuated. The USDA expects a reduction in global cotton production in the new year, and the domestic supply is expected to be tight in the long - term. The cotton price is expected to run strongly in the long - term [73]. - **Sugar**: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. India's sugar production is expected to decrease, which is favorable for the market. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase, and the supply is sufficient. It is recommended to pay attention to the impact of rising oil prices on commodities [77]. - **Apple**: On the previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The current inventory is low and the quality is poor, and the apple price is expected to run strongly in the long - term [80]. - **Pig**: On the previous trading day, pig futures fell. The national pig supply is relatively abundant, the consumption is weak, and the price is in a bottom - grinding state. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices [82]. - **Egg**: On the previous trading day, egg futures fell. The egg supply in March is expected to remain at a relatively high level, and the feed - cost increase is expected. It is recommended to take partial profits on long - term short positions [84]. - **Corn and Starch**: On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures fell. The domestic corn is basically in balance between production and demand, and the supply is expected to be released after the festival. The demand for corn starch has recovered slightly, and it is expected to follow the corn market [85]. - **Log**: On the previous trading day, log futures fell. The shipping cost support is expected to weaken, and the disk has cooled down. It is recommended to pay attention to the external - market quotation, shipping dynamics and downstream consumption [88].

Group 1: Overall Report Information - Report Name: Jinxin Futures Daily [1] - Date: March 11, 2026 [1] Group 2: Crude Oil Futures Analysis - Short - term Situation: Crude oil futures will maintain a high - volatility and strongly differentiated pattern, mainly driven by geopolitical expectations and policy hedging. The current volatility results from the rapid switch between the escalation and mitigation signals of the Middle East conflict. As of March 10, the intraday amplitude of the SC crude oil main contract exceeded 10% [3]. - Medium - term Variables: Three variables need attention. First, the sustainability of the geopolitical risk premium. If the Strait passage resumes, the previous premium of $8 - 10 per barrel will quickly disappear. Second, the supply - demand fundamentals. OPEC+ production cuts and the slowdown in US shale oil production form a tight balance, but global demand recovery is weak. Third, the policy implementation rhythm. US measures to stabilize oil prices and OPEC+ production adjustments will determine the volatility center [3]. - Operation Suggestions: Avoid unilateral chasing up or selling down. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with Brent focusing on the $80 - 100 per barrel range and SC crude oil on the 600 - 800 yuan per barrel range. Also, set stop - losses and avoid holding overnight positions [3]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Analysis - Market Performance: Today, the stock index basically opened high and went high, closing strongly under the influence of the sharp rise in international oil prices and US stocks. Technically, in the 5 - minute small - cycle, it is at a high level, and it is expected to have an adjustment requirement tomorrow morning. Tomorrow morning's adjustment is a good opportunity for low - buying [6][7]. Group 4: Gold Analysis - Market Performance: The red - green line of the gold daily - level chart turns bearish. After the morning opening, it fluctuated higher and showed an overall oscillating trend. It should be treated with a short - selling mindset [10]. Group 5: Iron Ore Analysis - Supply and Demand: Australia and Brazil's shipments maintain a normal rhythm. In the medium - to long - term, it is in the mine production capacity release cycle, and there is still an expectation of loose supply. On the demand side, steel mills are resuming production after the holiday, but the start of terminal demand still takes time [12][13]. - Technical View: Recently, the commodity sentiment is high, and iron ore is running strongly. It can continue to be viewed with a bullish mindset [12]. Group 6: Glass Analysis - Supply and Demand: The daily melting change is small. In the seasonal off - season, factory inventories continue to accumulate. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption progress of deep - processing after the holiday. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall commodity sentiment [16][17]. - Technical View: Today, it closed with a large negative line. It can still be viewed with a wide - range oscillation mindset [16]. Group 7: Methanol Analysis - Market Impact: Iran is the world's second - largest methanol producer and a major methanol exporter, significantly affecting global methanol supply. Recently, driven by Middle East geopolitical emergencies, methanol has shown continuous large fluctuations, and the domestic market will also fluctuate significantly [19]. Group 8: Pulp Analysis - Supply and Demand: Most pulp and paper plants have resumed normal production, with individual plants under maintenance. Domestic port inventories continue to accumulate, and the downstream paper mills' operating load is expected to continue to increase. Paper companies' gross profits are continuously low, and there is an expectation of price increases for cultural paper and white cardboard, which may support pulp prices [22].

农产品日报 | 2026-03-10 地缘扰动升级，板块冲高回落 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约15285元/吨，较前一日变动-10元/吨，幅度-0.07%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价16465元/吨，较前一日变动-49元/吨，现货基差CF05+1180，较前一日变动-39；3128B棉全国均价16632元/吨， 较前一日变动-46元/吨，现货基差CF05+1347，较前一日变动-36。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部（USDA）报告，2月27日至3月5日，美国2025/26年度棉花分级检验0.54万吨，78.8% 的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求。其中陆地棉检验量为0.48万吨，皮马棉为0.06万吨。至同期，累计分级检验304.41 万吨，81.7%的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求。其中陆地棉检验量为295.64万吨，皮马棉为8.77万吨。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价冲高回落。国际方面，近期中东冲突升级，短期市场面临调整和避险压力。受本年度全球供需格局 整体仍偏宽松影响，美棉暂缺乏持续上涨驱动，近期走势预计受宏观面扰动较大。中长期看，美棉已处于低估值 区间，进一步下跌空间预计有限， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international sugar supply surplus situation has improved, and domestic sugar mills are gradually closing. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to lightly position long orders [4]. - The news of overseas bleached softwood pulp production cuts supports the current valuation of softwood pulp prices. The decline of pulp prices is limited, but the rebound space still needs to focus on the sustainability of production cuts. It is recommended to temporarily exit short positions and wait and see [5]. - The spot price of offset printing paper is stable, and the cost support is weakening. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with the basis. It is recommended to try to short - match on rallies in the short term [7]. - Macroeconomic sentiment still disturbs the cotton market. The mid - term support for domestic cotton prices exists, but the short - term price may show a platform consolidation. It is recommended to hold long orders of the 05 contract cautiously [8]. - The low inventory of apples continues to support, and the futures price may continue to fluctuate in a high - level range. It is recommended to reduce long orders on rallies [9]. - For jujubes, it is recommended to exit short positions below 9000 points for the 2605 contract. If holding long futures, it is recommended to buy protective put options at the same time. Cautious investors can hold the reverse spread of short 2605 and long 2609 [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Fresh Fruit and Nuts Futures Strategy Recommendation - Apple 2605: Reduce long orders on rallies. The supply - side support remains, and the overall futures price is expected to move up. The support range is 9000 - 9200, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11500 [19]. - Jujube 2605: Buy on dips in the short term. The production reduction expectation may gradually appear in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory starts to peak and decline. The support range is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [19]. 3.1.2 Soft Commodity Futures Strategy Recommendation - Sugar 2605: Go long. The international sugar supply surplus situation has improved, and the supply - demand fundamentals in China are improving. The support range is 5300 - 5320, and the pressure range is 5600 - 5650 [19]. - Pulp 2605: Short on rallies. The rise in the outer - market price of hardwood pulp drives the pulp futures to strengthen, but the peak - season demand for finished paper needs to be verified, and the supply - demand improvement of bleached softwood pulp is limited. The support range is 5130 - 5200, and the pressure range is 5350 - 5400 [19]. - Offset Printing Paper 2605: Trade within the range. The spot market is stable, but the demand has entered the off - season. In the short term, focus on the support situation after the futures price further declines and the basis widens. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4250 - 4300 [19]. - Cotton 2605: Hold long orders cautiously. The long - term bullish expectation remains, and the mid - term support is unchanged. However, the rise of the outer - market price has not been confirmed, and the internal - external price difference restricts the domestic price. The short - term price may continue to consolidate. The support range is 14000 - 14200, and the pressure range is 15800 - 16000 [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of February 25, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 5.5292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 190,800 tons. As of February 26, 2026, the inventory was 4.9448 million tons, a decrease of 370,300 tons compared with before the Spring Festival and a year - on - year decrease of 308,900 tons [20]. - **Spot Market Situation**: In the Shandong production area, the price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in cold storage is stable, and there are some packaging operations in the cold storage. The trading volume in the cold storage is not large, and foreign traders mainly purchase medium and small fruits. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price is stable, the number of merchants has increased, and they mainly purchase high - quality goods. The supply of high - quality goods is scarce, and the procurement is difficult. In the sales area, the arrival of goods is stable, the sales situation is good, and the price remains stable [20][21][23]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of March 5th, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,817 tons, a decrease of 35 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% and a year - on - year increase of 8.04%. The inventory decreased slightly, and the market is slowly recovering after the Spring Festival, with general replenishment by downstream and slow de - stocking [24]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market - The ongoing Middle East conflict has driven up international crude oil and diesel prices, which may effectively support ethanol prices and be bullish for sugar. - The All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA) said that India's sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season may be 28.3 million tons, a 4.4% reduction from the previous estimate. - The total sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season may reach 31.5 million tons, of which about 3.2 million tons will be converted into ethanol production. - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 181.29 million tons, a reduction of 480,000 tons from the previous forecast. - The consulting firm Datagro expects a supply gap of 800,000 tons in the 2025/26 season. - As of March 3, 2026, in the 2025/26 season in the Indian state of Maharashtra, 113 sugar mills have stopped production, and 97 are still operating, a year - on - year decrease of 102. - As of March 3, 2026, in the 2025/26 season in Guangxi, 3 sugar mills have stopped production, a year - on - year decrease of 44. - As of the week of March 3, 2026, the non - commercial net long position of ICE sugar was - 245,034 contracts [26]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market After the Spring Festival, Chinese buyers returned to the market. In February, the price of South American BHK pulp increased by $10 per ton to $590 - $600 per ton. Sellers have announced another price increase of $20 per ton in March, which has made buyers cautious. The domestic market transaction is weak, many factories have shut down, and the port inventory has increased by 205,000 tons. In the BSK market, suppliers hope to push up prices before the northern hemisphere's spring maintenance, but buyers are seeking discounts and reducing import orders. The prices of Canadian and Nordic NBSK pulp remain stable [28]. 3.2.5 Offset Printing Paper Market Last Thursday, the inventory days of offset printing paper decreased by 2.05% compared with the previous Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points this week. Some paper mills' publishing orders have not been fully executed, and they continue to reduce inventory, but the new orders in the market are limited, and the overall de - stocking speed of the industry has decreased. This week, the operating load rate of the offset printing paper industry is 57.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.67 percentage points this week [29]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market - In February, Brazil's cotton export volume was 270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. - As of the week of March 5, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton + Pima cotton was 3.0442 million tons, accounting for 100.5% of the estimated annual U.S. cotton production, a year - on - year decrease of 4% [30]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 10,287 | - 29 | - 0.28% | | Jujube 2605 | 9,060 | 35 | 0.39% | | Sugar 2605 | 5,436 | 65 | 1.21% | | Pulp 2605 | 5,300 | - 22 | - 0.41% | | Cotton 2605 | 15,285 | - 10 | - 0.07% | [31] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5,520 | 130 | - 500 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5,300 | 20 | - 1,250 | | Offset Printing Paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4,350 | 0 | - 700 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 16,632 | - 46 | 1,797 | [36] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant figures are mentioned. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 2,063 | 362 | 2,530 | Bullish oscillation | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 380 | - 25 | 40 | Reverse spread on rallies | Wait and see | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 13 | 0 | - 152 | Oscillatory fluctuation | Wait and see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 55 | - 5 | 115 | Bearish oscillation | Short on rallies | [57] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant figures are mentioned. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 4,031 | 162 | - 1,321 | | Sugar | 14,948 | - 38 | - 9,489 | | Pulp | 163,436 | 9,115 | - 202,494 | | Cotton | 11,647 | 204 | 3,843 | [89] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant figures are mentioned.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trend outlooks and fundamental analysis for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. Geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East, have a significant impact on the prices and trends of many commodities. For example, the conflict in the Middle East has led to concerns about inflation, affecting the prices of gold, oil, and other commodities. Additionally, factors such as supply and demand, production capacity, and inventory levels also play important roles in determining the price trends of different commodities [5][8][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out, and the price is affected by factors such as inflation concerns and changes in the US dollar index. The trend strength is 1 [5]. - **Silver**: In a volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 1 [2]. - **Platinum**: Continues to be weak, with a trend strength of 0 [25]. - **Palladium**: High - frequency data is sluggish, and it is in a low - level volatile state, with a trend strength of - 1 [25]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The narrowing of the spot discount restricts the price decline. The trend strength is 0 [8]. - **Zinc**: In a range - bound pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [11]. - **Lead**: The reduction of overseas inventory restricts the price decline, with a trend strength of 0 [15]. - **Tin**: In a volatile adjustment, with a trend strength of 0 [18]. - **Aluminum**: A slight correction, with a trend strength of 0 [22]. - **Alumina**: In a sideways volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [22]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [22]. - **Nickel**: The reality of the Indonesian ore end is catching up, and beware of speculative attributes in March, with a trend strength of 0 [30]. - **Stainless Steel**: The contradiction at the ore end increases marginally, and the cost support center moves up, with a trend strength of 0 [30]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Although not specifically mentioned in detail, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to concerns about supply, pushing up oil prices [5][8]. - **Fuel Oil**: Maintains a retracement trend and short - term high - volatility, with a trend strength of - 1 [133]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In a weak adjustment, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels continues to decline, with a trend strength of - 1 [133]. - **Natural Gas**: Not specifically analyzed in detail, but geopolitical factors may affect its supply and price [91]. - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: In a wide - range volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [58]. - **Coke**: A first - round price cut has begun, and it is in a wide - range volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [57]. - **Steam Coal**: Market sentiment is weakening, and the short - term price fluctuates within a narrow range, with a trend strength of - 1 [62]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The spill - over of sentiment finally arrives, showing a short - term strong performance, with a trend strength of 1 [158]. - **Soybean Oil**: Supported by the cost of US soybeans, it may break through upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [158]. - **Soybean Meal**: Rebounds and fluctuates, and pay attention to the situation in the Middle East, with a trend strength of 0 [165]. - **Soybean**: The spot price is stable and slightly strong, and the futures price fluctuates in adjustment, with a trend strength of 0 [165]. - **Corn**: Fluctuates strongly, with a trend strength of 0 [168]. - **Sugar**: In a range - bound arrangement, with a trend strength of 0 [172]. - **Cotton**: Waiting for new drivers, with a trend strength of 1 [176]. - **Eggs**: Maintains a volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [180]. - **Hogs**: The inventory pressure is difficult to solve, and the weakness continues, with a trend strength of - 1 [183]. - **Peanuts**: Fluctuates, with a trend strength of 0 [188]. Chemical Products - **P - Xylene (PX)**: In a high - level volatile market, it is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA. The trend strength is 1 [68]. - **Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA)**: In a high - level volatile market, with a trend strength of 1 [68]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: In a high - level volatile market, with a trend strength of 1 [68]. - **Rubber**: Fluctuates weakly, with a trend strength of - 1 [78]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price center moves up, with a trend strength of 1 [81]. - **Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LLDPE)**: The expectation of cracking supply contraction continues, and pay short - term high attention to geopolitical factors, with a trend strength of 2 [85]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The C3 raw material remains strong, and the reduction of PDH devices continues, with a trend strength of 2 [85]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supported by strong export expectations, with a trend strength of 1 [90]. - **Paper Pulp**: Fluctuates, with a trend strength of 0 [95]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a trend strength of 0 [102]. - **Methanol**: In a high - level volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [105]. - **Urea**: Fluctuates, with a trend strength of 0 [111]. - **Styrene**: Fluctuates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [115]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little, with a trend strength of 0 [117]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances are strong, with a trend strength of 0 [122]. - **Propylene**: The cost end is affected by geopolitical factors, and the fundamentals remain tight, with a trend strength of 1 [122]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: In a range - bound pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [130]. Shipping Index - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Pay attention to geopolitical sentiment disturbances, with a trend strength of 0 [135]. Fibers - **Short - Fiber**: Geopolitical risks are not eliminated, and it is short - term strong, with a trend strength of 1 [148]. - **Bottle - Grade Chip**: Geopolitical risks are not eliminated, and it is short - term strong, with a trend strength of 1 [148]. Paper - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a trend strength of 0 [150]. Aromatics - **Pure Benzene**: Fluctuates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [155].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum in China needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The overall situation of the global economic and financial market is stable, but there are still certain pressures in the market, and caution should be maintained [6]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The valuation of domestic assets is at a low level, and there is room for repair. The policy environment is favorable, and the market sentiment is rising. It is expected that the volatility center of the stock index will gradually move up, and long positions can continue to be held [8]. - The long - term logic of precious metals is still strong, but the current market lacks significant fundamental drivers, and it is expected that the market volatility will significantly increase. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines for the time being [11]. - The prices of steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils lack bullish drivers, but the valuation is also at a low level. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low positions and manage their positions [13]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weak, and it is recommended that investors pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low positions and manage their positions [15]. - The supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke is complex, and it is recommended that investors pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low positions and manage their positions [17]. - The overall surplus pressure of ferroalloys continues, and it is advisable to consider the opportunity of closing long positions when the price rebounds rapidly in the short term [19]. - The price of crude oil is supported by multiple factors, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the main contract [21]. - The price of polyolefins is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long [24]. - The price of synthetic rubber is expected to be strong in the short term and needs to pay attention to the medium - term situation [25]. - The price of natural rubber is expected to be strong in the short term and needs to pay attention to the inventory situation from March to April [27]. - The PVC market is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the inventory trend [30]. - The urea market is expected to be strong in the short term, and the shipping safety of the Strait of Hormuz is the main risk point [33]. - The price of PX is expected to rise, and the processing fee is expected to be repaired [36]. - The price of PTA is expected to rise with the cost, and it is advisable to operate in the low - range and pay attention to risks [38]. - The price of ethylene glycol is expected to rise, but the high inventory may suppress the short - term increase [39]. - The price of short - fiber is supported by the cost, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the resumption of work of downstream factories [41]. - The price of bottle chips is expected to be strong with the cost, and attention should be paid to the restart of maintenance devices and cost changes [42]. - The fundamentals of soda ash are loose, and caution should be exercised [43]. - The glass market is mainly loose, and there is a possibility of a slight upward shock, but attention should be paid to the risk of decline [45]. - The supply of caustic soda is at a high level, and attention should be paid to the actual delivery volume and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [46]. - The pulp market has no obvious change in supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the resumption of work of downstream paper mills and the demand for stocking during the March 8th promotion [48]. - The price of lithium carbonate has short - term support, but the short - term volatility may increase [50]. - The copper price is under pressure and fluctuates, and the market uncertainty is high [52]. - The aluminum price is strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of callback [55]. - The zinc price fluctuates, and the fundamental driving force is insufficient [57]. - The lead price is weakly volatile and lacks upward momentum [59]. - The tin price has support below, but attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuation [61]. - The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia and macro - event disturbances [62]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, attention can be paid to the long - position opportunity in the low - cost support range for soybean meal, and it is advisable to wait and see after the price of soybean oil leaves the low - cost range [64]. - For palm oil, long positions can be considered to be reduced or liquidated [67]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, a bullish idea can be considered for rapeseed oil [68]. - The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [71]. - For sugar, it is advisable to wait and see [76]. - The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [79]. - For live pigs, it is advisable to wait for the opportunity to short at a high price [81]. - For eggs, it is advisable to hold short positions in the far - month contract [83]. - The corn and corn starch market is affected by multiple factors, and corn starch may follow the corn market [87]. - The price of logs has cost support, but the current price is relatively high, and attention should be paid to the external quotation, shipping dynamics and downstream consumption [90]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Carbonate Lithium - The previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate fell 2.86% to 153060 yuan/ton. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance sheet is being reshaped, and the supply of ore is in a tight balance. The social inventory of lithium carbonate is gradually decreasing, and there is short - term support for the price, but the short - term volatility may increase [50]. 3.2 Copper - The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 101700 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.45%. The overseas macro - environment is complex, and the supply pressure at the mine end is prominent. The demand shows seasonal recovery and structural differentiation. The inventory pressure is strong, and the copper price is under pressure and fluctuates [51][52]. 3.3 Aluminum - The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 25145 yuan/ton, with a gain of 2.65%. The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern, and the aluminum price is strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of callback [54][55]. 3.4 Zinc - The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 24460 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.67%. The supply of refined zinc is expected to increase, and the demand recovery is slow. The fundamentals lack driving force, and the zinc price fluctuates [57]. 3.5 Lead - The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 16790 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.68%. The supply recovery is slow, the consumption is weak, and the lead price is weakly volatile [59]. 3.6 Tin - The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai tin rose 2.84% to 406590 yuan/ton. The supply tightness has eased, the demand is complex, and the tin price has support below, but attention should be paid to price fluctuations [61]. 3.7 Nickel - The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai nickel rose 1.29% to 138460 yuan/ton. The nickel ore shortage expectation is fermenting, but the consumption is not optimistic, and the primary nickel is in an oversupply pattern [62]. 3.8 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, the main contract of soybean meal fell 0.49% to 2829 yuan/ton, and the main contract of soybean oil rose 0.46% to 8370 yuan/ton. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, the demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly [63][64]. 3.9 Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market is affected by factors such as the decline of Chicago soybean oil futures and profit - taking. The inventory in Malaysia is expected to decline, and the domestic palm oil is in a state of inventory accumulation. It is recommended to reduce or liquidate long positions [65][67]. 3.10 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures rose, and the domestic market is affected by policies such as tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil shows different trends. A bullish idea can be considered for rapeseed oil [68]. 3.11 Cotton - The domestic cotton market fluctuates, and the new - year global cotton is expected to reduce production and enter the de - stocking cycle. The domestic supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is resilient. The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [69][71]. 3.12 Sugar - The domestic and foreign sugar markets are affected by factors such as production and import. The overseas production reduction is beneficial to the market, while the domestic supply is sufficient. It is advisable to wait and see [73][76]. 3.13 Apple - The apple futures rose to a new high, the inventory this year is low and the quality is poor. The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [77][79]. 3.14 Live Pigs - The main contract of live pigs fell 0.31% to 11130 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is still large, and it is advisable to wait for the opportunity to short at a high price [81]. 3.15 Eggs - The main contract of eggs rose 0.09% to 3209 yuan/500kg. The supply in March is expected to remain at a high level, and it is advisable to hold short positions in the far - month contract [82][83]. 3.16 Corn & Starch - The main contract of corn rose 0.21% to 2379 yuan/ton, and the main contract of corn starch rose 0.37% to 2692 yuan/ton. The market is affected by factors such as inventory, supply and demand, and price competition. Corn starch may follow the corn market [84][87]. 3.17 Logs - The main contract of logs closed at 802.0 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.25%. The arrival volume of logs decreased, the price has a rising trend, and attention should be paid to external quotations, shipping dynamics and downstream consumption [88][90].

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content Core Views - The report provides investment outlooks and trend intensities for various commodities, taking into account factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand dynamics, and cost changes. For example, geopolitical conflicts have a significant impact on commodities like gold, oil - related products, and some chemical products, while supply - demand fundamentals drive the trends of agricultural products and metals [7][10][148]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflict has broken out. The price of Comex gold 2602 rose 1.02% to 5151.60, and London gold spot rose 0.63% to 5120.54. The trend intensity is 1 [3][7]. - **Silver**: In a shock pattern. The price of Comex silver 2602 rose 1.78% to 83.765, and London silver spot rose 1.86% to 83.540. The trend intensity is 1 [3][7]. - **Platinum**: The sentiment is relatively pessimistic. The trend intensity is 0 [3][27]. - **Palladium**: Overall weak. The trend intensity is 0 [3][27]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory increase restricts price recovery. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract fell 0.43% to 101,660. The trend intensity is 0 [3][10]. - **Zinc**: Oscillating strongly. The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24480, up 0.45%. The trend intensity is 1 [3][13]. - **Lead**: Inventory is stable, and the price oscillates. The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16840, with no change. The trend intensity is 0 [3][17]. - **Tin**: Pay attention to the stabilization of risk appetite. The Shanghai tin main contract fell 5.17% to 401,130. The trend intensity is 1 [3][20]. - **Aluminum**: Middle - East aluminum plants are reducing production, and supply concerns are intensifying. The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24795, up 890. The trend intensity is 1 [3][24]. - **Alumina**: Sell on rebounds. The trend intensity is - 1 [3][24]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensity is 1 [3][24]. - **Nickel**: The reality of the Indonesian ore end is catching up. Be vigilant about speculative attributes in March. The trend intensity is 0 [3][31]. - **Stainless Steel**: The contradiction at the ore end is increasing marginally, and the cost support center is moving up. The trend intensity is 0 [3][32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related (implied)**: Geopolitical conflicts have a significant impact on the energy market, affecting the prices of related products such as fuel oil and LPG [14][120]. - **Fuel Oil**: The night session had a slight pullback, and price fluctuations continued to widen. The trend intensity is 1 [3][131]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Weakened in the short - term, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the outer market fell again. The trend intensity is 1 [3][131]. - **LPG**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances are strong. The trend intensity is 1 [3][120]. - **Propylene**: Geopolitical disturbances at the cost end, and the fundamentals remain tight. The trend intensity is 1 [3][120]. - **Methanol**: High - level shock. The trend intensity is 0 [3][103]. - **Urea**: Entered a shock pattern in the short - term. The trend intensity is 0 [3][110]. - **PTA**: High - level shock. The trend intensity is 1 [3][71]. - **MEG**: High - level shock. The trend intensity is 1 [3][71]. - **PX**: High - level shock market, go long PX and short PTA. The trend intensity is 1 [3][71]. - **Rubber**: Oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [3][79]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The center moves up. The trend intensity is 1 [3][82]. - **LLDPE**: The expectation of cracking supply contraction is increasing. Pay attention to geopolitical factors in the short - term. The trend intensity is 1 [3][86]. - **PP**: C3 raw materials remain strong, and the reduction of PDH devices continues. The trend intensity is 2 [3][86]. - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [3][90]. - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [3][95]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend intensity is 0 [3][100]. - **PVC**: Range shock. The trend intensity is 0 [3][128]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental contradiction is limited. Pay attention to the impact of oil prices. The trend intensity is 0 [3][161]. - **Soybean Oil**: Supported by the cost of US soybeans. Pay attention to the previous high pressure. The trend intensity is 0 [3][161]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillating. Pay attention to market sentiment fluctuations. The trend intensity is 0 [3][167]. - **Soybean**: Oscillating. Pay attention to the policy sentiment of the Two Sessions. The trend intensity is 0 [3][167]. - **Corn**: Oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [3][170]. - **Sugar**: Range consolidation. The trend intensity is 0 [3][174]. - **Cotton**: Waiting for new drivers. The trend intensity is 1 [3][178]. - **Eggs**: Maintaining a shock. The trend intensity is 0 [3][182]. - **Hogs**: The inventory pressure is difficult to solve, and the weakness continues. The trend intensity is - 2 [3][185]. - **Peanuts**: Oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [3][190]. Others - **Iron Ore**: Waiting for steel mills to resume production, and the ore price rebounds from a low level. The trend intensity is 1 [3][48]. - **Rebar**: Oscillating repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0 [3][52]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Oscillating repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0 [3][52]. - **Silicon Iron**: Wide - range shock. The trend intensity is 0 [3][56]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Wide - range shock. The trend intensity is 0 [3][56]. - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts has started, and wide - range shock. The trend intensity is 0 [3][59]. - **Coking Coal**: Wide - range shock. The trend intensity is 0 [3][59]. - **Steam Coal**: There is insufficient support for price increases, and short - term prices fluctuate in a narrow range. The trend intensity is 0 [3][64]. - **Log**: The game between expectation and reality, with a slight shock. The trend intensity is 0 [3][67]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Volatility has declined, mainly oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [3][133]. - **Short - Fiber**: Geopolitical factors raise costs, and it is strong in the short - term. The trend intensity is 1 [3][148]. - **Bottle Chip**: Geopolitical factors raise costs, and it is strong in the short - term. The trend intensity is 1 [3][148]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Wait - and - see. The trend intensity is 0 [3][151]. - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [3][156].

农产品日报 | 2026-03-03 持续反弹驱动不足，板块整体承压运行 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约15225元/吨，较前一日变动-170元/吨，幅度-1.10%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价16485元/吨，现货基差CF05+1260；3128B棉全国均价16633元/吨，现货基差CF05+1408。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部（USDA）报告，2月20日至2月26日，美国2025/26年度棉花分级检验1.12万吨，71.2% 的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡下跌。国际方面，USDA展望论坛最新报告显示，2026/27年度全球棉花总产2526万吨，同比减 少3.2%；全球消费量2615万吨，同比增加1.2%；新年度全球期末库存1550万吨，同比减少5.2%。USDA展望预期 偏多，新年度全球棉市供需格局有望收紧，推动外盘强势收复65美分/磅整数关口。后续需持续关注新季供应方面 的题材。国内方面，节后国内纺织市场陆续复工复产，市场交易有望逐步恢复，短期需关注旺季下游订单表现。 中长期看，下游纱锭产能扩张带来棉花消耗提高，本年度国内预计维持高 ...