Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous gains, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence recently, while sectors such as nuclear fusion, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Although short - term index fluctuations have increased, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips due to policy support for the capital market [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is likely to remain volatile under the intertwined bull - bear background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - With the weakening of the US dollar credit and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals. However, there is a significant risk of price correction in the short term [9]. - For most metals, factors such as supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and market sentiment affect their prices. For example, copper is supported by supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations; aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong; zinc is expected to be strong in the short term; and nickel may have a short - term downward exploration but is supported in the long term [12][14][16][18]. - For black building materials, although the current real - world demand for steel is weak, the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. The price of iron ore may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [31][33][35]. - For energy and chemical products, rubber is recommended to go long on dips; for crude oil, wait and see in the short term; methanol and urea can be considered for short - term long positions after a decline; and for some chemical products like PVC and ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation is weak, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [53][55][56][58]. - For agricultural products, the prices of live pigs and eggs are expected to be weak in the short term; soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile; oils are expected to be strong; sugar is recommended to be shorted on rallies; and cotton is likely to be weak in the short term [77][79][82][84][87][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have imposed export controls on certain items; some foreign entities have been included in the unreliable entity list; some securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratios of certain stocks; and the price of spot gold remains high, with some banks adjusting their related businesses [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the previous continuous rise, the high - flying sectors have shown divergence, and the short - term index fluctuations have increased. However, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed; the daily average sales revenue of the national consumption - related industries during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays has increased year - on - year; and export controls have been imposed on some medium - heavy rare earth - related items [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 6120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 14513 billion yuan on the day [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The manufacturing PMI has rebounded, but the follow - up social financing and money growth may be under pressure. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver have declined, while the prices of COMEX gold and silver have increased. The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data, and the Fed's meeting minutes show differences in the outlook for interest rates [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals, but pay attention to short - term price corrections [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market News**: After the National Day, the copper price continued to be strong. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased. The spot import loss expanded, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations support the copper price, but the short - term upward pace may slow down [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: On the first day after the National Day, non - ferrous metals generally strengthened. The LME aluminum price rose, and the domestic aluminum inventory increased. The market atmosphere was warm, but the trade situation was still volatile [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and strong [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and the LME zinc price fell. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the zinc export window opened [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai zinc is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and the LME lead price also rose. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai lead is expected to be in a wide - range low - level shock in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: The nickel price rose significantly. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was stable, and the MHP coefficient price increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term nickel price may decline, but it is supported in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips [18]. Tin - **Market News**: The tin price was strong. The supply was expected to increase slightly, and the demand in the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors was still weak [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to be high - level volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The carbonate lithium price was stable. The social inventory decreased, and a company obtained mining rights [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand mismatch has led to a decrease in inventory. Pay attention to the supply and demand situation and the market atmosphere [22]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose. The domestic and overseas prices changed, and the import window opened [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Wait and see for the macro - mood resonance [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material prices were stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel price is expected to be range - bound. Pay attention to the RKAB approval progress [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume increased, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the delivery pressure of the near - term contract is large, and the upside space is limited [28]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current real - world demand for steel is weak, but the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. Pay attention to policy signals [31]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron ore price rose. The overseas shipment decreased, and the domestic arrival increased. The steel mill's profit rate continued to decline [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Pay attention to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: The glass price rose, and the inventory increased. The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased [34][36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price fell slightly. The prices are in a shock range [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [39][40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: The industrial silicon price was stable, and the polysilicon price fell. The supply and demand of industrial silicon changed little, and the polysilicon inventory was limited [42][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and polysilicon may improve if the leading enterprises conduct maintenance [43][46]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market News**: The rubber price stabilized. The tire production rate decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The spot price changed [48][50][52]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on dips and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The crude oil price fell, and the inventories of related products changed. The US EIA data showed inventory changes [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and verify the OPEC's export - price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider short - term long positions after a decline [56]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider long positions at a low price [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The pure benzene price was stable, and the styrene price fell. The supply and demand changed, and the inventory increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the seasonal peak season [60]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC market is bearish in the medium term. Consider short positions [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene glycol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [65]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was affected by maintenance, and the demand was stable [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market News**: The para - xylene price rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was affected by PTA maintenance [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the terminal and PTA valuation [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The PE price fell, and the inventory decreased. The supply was limited, and the demand was expected to increase [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may rise in the long term [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The PP price fell, and the inventory was high. The supply was large, and the demand was weak [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and the inventory pressure is high [74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market News**: The live pig price continued to fall. The slaughtering and sales situation was not good [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The live pig price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short the near - term contract and conduct reverse hedging [77]. Eggs - **Market News**: The egg price generally fell. The supply was greater than the demand, and the market confidence was low [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term. Wait for the bottom - building [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the import cost was affected by multiple factors [80][81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is large. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [82]. Oils - **Market News**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan. The domestic oil price rose, and the inventory may decrease [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to be strong. Go long on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: The sugar price rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production data was released, and the port waiting quantity increased [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to be bearish in the long term. Short on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: The cotton price rebounded slightly. The spot price fell, and the acquisition price was lower than last year [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is likely to be weak in the short term. There is cost support at the bottom [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The copper market shows a strengthening upward trend due to factors such as reduced global copper mine supply, decreased domestic inventories, and industry opposition to "involution" competition [3][4][7]. - The alumina market has limited downward space as prices are below the theoretical full - cost, but the fundamental oversupply situation restricts price rebound [11][12][15]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to maintain an oscillatory upward trend, with consumption showing resilience as indicated by the reduction in social inventories [18][21]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has alloy ingot spot prices remaining stable and slightly strong, with market expectations being positive [23][25]. - The zinc market may see a small surplus in September, and the overseas market's inventory reduction may support zinc prices, but attention should be paid to the overseas delivery situation [30][31]. - The lead market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation as multiple factors are intertwined [36][37]. - The nickel market is affected by positive news from Indonesia and the Philippines, and prices are oscillating strongly [40][42]. - The stainless steel market is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend, with cost support and slow inventory reduction [47][50]. - The tin market has limited supply improvement, weak demand, and prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [54][56]. - The industrial silicon market's price is affected by polysilicon production and market sentiment, and it is recommended to participate with long positions [61][63][64]. - The polysilicon market is expected to see a small increase in inventory, and it is recommended to trade with low - long band operations [66][67][69]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, with supply and demand factors both having an impact [71][72][74]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 82,710 yuan/ton, up 3.4%, and the Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 89,053 lots to 552,800 lots [2]. - Spot: The Shanghai copper spot reported a premium of 30 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Guangdong market reported a premium of 60 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the North China market reported a discount of 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **Important Information** - As of September 25, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.44 million tons to 1.401 million tons compared to Monday, and it was the first weekly decline after four consecutive weeks of increase [3]. - Goldman Sachs lowered its global copper mine supply forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with a total reduction of 525,000 tons in copper mine supply [4]. - **Logic Analysis** - The Grasberg incident has changed the long - term supply - demand structure, intensifying the tightness of copper mines. The industry's opposition to "involution" competition has increased market bullish sentiment [7]. - Consumption shows a weak peak season, and downstream acceptance of high prices is insufficient [7]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The price is rising rapidly, and the bullish trend is strengthening [8]. - Arbitrage: Continue to hold cross - market positive arbitrage [9]. - Options: Wait and see [10] 3.2 Alumina - **Market Review** - Futures: The alumina 2601 contract increased by 48 yuan to 2,942 yuan/ton [11]. - Spot: The alumina spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend [11]. - **Related Information** - As of September 25, the national alumina inventory was 3.797 million tons, an increase of 78,000 tons from last week [12]. - The strike at the Guinean bauxite mine and the reduction in the price of mainstream mines in Guinea and Australia have affected the market [12][14]. - **Logic Analysis** - The price is below the theoretical full - cost, with limited downward space, but the fundamental oversupply situation restricts price rebound [15]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The price rebounds slightly, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 3,000 yuan [16]. - Arbitrage: Reverse calendar spread arbitrage [17]. - Options: Wait and see [17] 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract increased by 80 yuan to 20,765 yuan/ton [18]. - Spot: The aluminum ingot spot prices in East China, South China, and Central China all increased [18]. - **Related Information** - The US imposed a 15% tariff on EU - imported automobiles and auto products [18]. - On September 25, the domestic aluminum ingot spot inventory decreased by 23,000 tons [18]. - The 500,000 - ton first - phase electrolytic aluminum project of Indonesia's Adaro - Liqin is expected to be put into production in stages at the end of 2025 [18]. - **Trading Logic** - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the market is cautious about further cuts. The rise in copper prices has driven the rebound of LME aluminum, and the reduction in social inventories shows consumption resilience [21]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Aluminum prices rebound with the sector [27]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [27]. - Options: Wait and see [27] 3.4 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review** - Futures: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 45 yuan to 20,365 yuan/ton [23]. - Spot: The ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot spot prices in some regions increased, while others remained flat [23]. - **Related Information** - The "Notice on Implementing Policies for Regulating Investment Promotion Behaviors" has an impact on the recycled aluminum industry [23]. - On September 24, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased [23]. - **Trading Logic** - Some enterprises are stocking up for the National Day holiday, and the demand for die - casting plants is increasing, with alloy ingot prices remaining stable and slightly strong [25]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The alloy futures price rebounds with aluminum prices [28]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [28]. - Options: Wait and see [28] 3.5 Zinc - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai zinc 2511 increased by 0.59% to 22,045 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index's positions decreased by 14,900 lots to 238,500 lots [29]. - Spot: The spot trading in the Shanghai market was average, with downstream enterprises having low enthusiasm for purchasing [29]. - **Related Information** - As of September 25, the domestic seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 0.80 million tons compared to September 18 [30]. - A smelter in South China resumed production on September 25, with a total impact of 4,000 tons during the maintenance period [30]. - The winning bid price of a zinc mine in North China decreased by 200 yuan/metal ton [30]. - **Logic Analysis** - The refined zinc supply in September may have a small reduction, but the monthly output is still at a relatively high level. The downstream's low - price purchasing has led to a small reduction in social inventories [31]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Affected by the external market, the Shanghai zinc price may oscillate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the LME inventory change [31]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [33]. - Options: Wait and see [33] 3.6 Lead - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai lead 2511 increased by 0.09% to 17,090 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index's positions decreased by 1,713 lots to 93,600 lots [32]. - Spot: The SMM1 lead average price remained unchanged, and the trading was average [35]. - **Related Information** - As of September 25, the SMM lead ingot five - region social inventory decreased by 2.13 million tons compared to September 18 [36]. - Some large - scale recycled lead smelters in Anhui and Inner Mongolia have no plans to resume production in the short term [36]. - **Logic Analysis** - The increase in lead prices has repaired the losses of recycled lead smelters, and some enterprises plan to resume production. The downstream may stock up before the National Day [37]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The lead price may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [38]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [38]. - Options: Wait and see [38] 3.7 Nickel - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2511 increased by 1,310 to 122,990 yuan/ton, and the index's positions increased by 13,909 lots [40]. - Spot: The premiums of Jinchuan nickel and Russian nickel changed [40]. - **Related Information** - The Chicago Fed President warned against continuous interest rate cuts [41]. - The Indonesian government sanctioned 25 nickel mining companies [41]. - Zhongwei Co., Ltd. has business cooperation with solid - state battery customers and has shipped nearly 50 tons of solid - state battery materials [42]. - **Logic Analysis** - The Indonesian copper mine accident and the suspension of some nickel mines in Indonesia have boosted nickel prices, but the impact on supply is limited. The net import of refined nickel in August decreased, and LME inventory is expected to increase [42]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Oscillate strongly [43]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [44]. - Options: Wait and see [45] 3.8 Stainless Steel - **Market Review** - Futures: The main SS2511 contract increased by 25 to 12,930 yuan/ton, and the index's positions decreased by 7,520 lots [47]. - Spot: The cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel prices are within a certain range [47]. - **Related Information** - On September 25, the national mainstream stainless steel social inventory decreased for the fifth consecutive week, mainly with the digestion of 400 - series resources [48]. - The US import tariff has a serious impact on the stainless steel market [48]. - **Logic Analysis** - The stainless steel production in September has increased significantly, but the demand has not shown seasonal peak characteristics. The slow reduction in inventory and cost support lead to an oscillatory trend [50]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation [51]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [52] 3.9 Tin - **Market Review** - Futures: The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 273,710 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,140 yuan/ton or 0.79%, and the positions increased by 2,908 lots to 53,950 lots [54]. - Spot: The spot tin ingot price increased, but the trading was poor, and the downstream demand was weak [54]. - **Related Information** - By 2035, the global 6G user penetration rate will be 22.3% [55]. - The Indonesian government suspended the mining activities of 190 mining enterprises, including about 14 tin - mining enterprises [55]. - **Logic Analysis** - The strong US dollar index restricts price increases. The supply of tin mines is still tight, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [56]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Maintain a high - level oscillation [59]. - Options: Wait and see [60] 3.10 Industrial Silicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated strongly, closing at 9,055 yuan/ton, up 0.72% [61]. - Spot: The industrial silicon spot price remained stable [62]. - **Related Information** - In August, the export volume of industrial silicon products in China increased year - on - year and month - on - month [63]. - **Comprehensive Analysis** - The current inventory structure of industrial silicon is "low at both ends and high in the middle", and the production and market sentiment of polysilicon in October have a greater impact on prices [64]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Participate with long positions [65]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [65]. - Arbitrage: None [65] 3.11 Polysilicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The polysilicon futures main contract oscillated, closing at 51,365 yuan/ton, up 0.89% [66]. - Spot: The polysilicon spot price remained stable, and different types of polysilicon have different price ranges [66]. - **Related Information** - On September 24, Xinjiang Dongfang Hope's first - phase polysilicon production line started annual maintenance, and the third - phase project is ready for maintenance [67]. - **Comprehensive Analysis** - The polysilicon spot price is stable, and the 11 - contract faces the pressure of warehouse receipt cancellation. The demand in October is expected to weaken, but production will also decrease, and a small inventory increase is expected [69]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Trade with low - long band operations [70]. - Arbitrage: Reverse spread arbitrage between the 2511 and 2512 contracts [70]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [70] 3.12 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review** - Futures: The main 2511 contract increased by 680 to 74,040 yuan/ton, the index's positions decreased by 1,551 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts increased by 560 to 40,309 tons [71]. - Spot: The SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices decreased [71]. - **Important Information** - The US government is seeking to acquire up to 10% of the equity of American Lithium Corp [72]. - The US imposed a 15% tariff on EU - imported automobiles and auto products [72]. - **Logic Analysis** - On the supply side, the lack of processing profit and limited increase in lithium ore imports in September may affect production. On the demand side, although orders are full, the increase in the customer - supplied ratio may reduce downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Lithium prices are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern [74]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation [75]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [75]. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle combination [75]

大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 9 月 23 日星期二 【市场回顾】 万手。 【重要资讯】 【逻辑分析】 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询从业证号：Z0017510 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号：Z0022141 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号：Z0020351 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 1.期货：今日沪铜 2511 合约收于 79920 元/吨，跌幅 0.25%，沪铜指数减仓 10887 手至 46.67 2.现货：临近假期下游备货节奏较缓，上海现货报升水 55 元/吨，较上一交易日下跌 5 元/ 吨。广东库存 4 连降，台风来临下游适量增加采购量，整体交投尚可，报升水 70 元/吨， 持平上一交易日。华北消费疲软，当前采购谨慎，报贴水 90 元/吨，下跌 10 元/吨。 1. 据海关总署在线查询平台数据显示，中国 8 月铜矿砂及其精矿进 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by macro - factors and fundamentals. The copper price has corrected due to concerns about the Fed's interest - rate decision, and the supply is tight while the consumption shows a weakening trend [8] - The alumina market has a weakening fundamental trend. The import window has opened narrowly, and the market price reduction may take some time [15] - The electrolytic aluminum market has a tight overseas supply and a marginal recovery in domestic downstream demand. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate and rise after a correction [19][20] - The casting aluminum alloy market is affected by policy changes. The supply is tight, and the alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [27] - The zinc market has a small reduction in domestic refined zinc supply in September, and the overseas market has some support for the zinc price. The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term [34][39] - The lead market has an upward - moving price center due to downstream pre - holiday stocking. However, there are risks of price decline if the import window opens or the production of recycling enterprises resumes [41] - The nickel market has a relatively optimistic macro - atmosphere, but the LME inventory increase indicates an oversupply of refined nickel in China, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [47] - The stainless - steel market is expected to remain high and oscillate due to the approaching Fed's interest - rate cut, positive domestic policies, and the approaching consumption peak season [53] - The tin market is affected by the Fed's interest - rate decision. The supply is tight, and the demand may be postponed. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [60] - The industrial silicon market may turn into a supply - surplus state if the rumored production resumption occurs. The price is at a relatively low valuation with a bottom support, and long positions can be considered at low prices [67] - The polysilicon market has a long - term upward price trend, but there is a short - term weakening due to the slow progress of capacity integration. The price of the 11 - contract may return to the spot price [72] - The lithium carbonate market has an optimistic atmosphere due to the Fed's interest - rate cut. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the price has support from the spot market [77] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 80,560 yuan/ton, down 0.65%, and the open interest of the Shanghai copper index decreased by 11,113 lots to 510,000 lots. The downstream purchasing sentiment was poor, and the spot premiums in different regions showed different trends [2] - **Important Information**: In August, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. Anglo American and Codelco will jointly operate mines in Chile, and Australia's Orion Minerals may get funds for its project. China's copper product output in August reached a multi - year high [3][4][5] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - factors and supply - demand fundamentals affect the copper price. The supply is tight, and the consumption shows a weakening trend [8] - **Trading Strategy**: The copper price has fallen from a high level. Hold long positions in cross - market arbitrage and wait and see for options [13] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2511 contract fell 48 yuan to 2,916 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed a downward trend [10] - **Related Information**: Guinea's Ningba Mining Company may resume production. The industry's average profit in August increased, and the operating capacity and开工 rate of alumina in China changed [11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: The alumina market has a weakening fundamental trend, and the market price reduction may take some time [15] - **Trading Strategy**: After the "anti - involution" sentiment fades, the price will return to a bearish fundamental pattern [16] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2510 contract fell 80 yuan to 20,910 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased [18] - **Related Information**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 75 basis points by the end of the year. The electrolytic aluminum inventory remained unchanged, and some capacity replacement plans were announced [18] - **Trading Logic**: The market is cautious before the Fed's interest - rate meeting. The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic downstream demand is recovering marginally [19] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and long positions can be considered after a correction. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 70 yuan to 20,435 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions were stable, and the import price decreased [24] - **Related Information**: Policy changes have affected the recycling aluminum industry, and the average cost and profit of the casting aluminum alloy industry in August changed. The casting aluminum alloy futures standard - warehouse receipt generation business will start on September 22 [24][25][26] - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes have affected the supply, and the downstream demand is increasing. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [27] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and long positions can be considered after a correction. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2511 contract fell 0.13% to 22,285 yuan/ton. The downstream purchasing sentiment was weak, and the spot premium increase was limited [32] - **Related Information**: The construction of the Zhugongtang lead - zinc mine project in Hezhang County has made breakthroughs [33] - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly in September, and the overseas market has some support for the zinc price. Pay attention to the impact of macro - factors [34] - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [39] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2510 contract rose 0.12% to 17,100 yuan/ton. The market purchasing activity increased, and the supply of recycled refined lead was scarce [37] - **Related Information**: The scrap battery price is expected to remain firm, and the lead ingot inventory increased [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The lead price has moved upward due to downstream pre - holiday stocking, but there are risks of price decline [41] - **Trading Strategy**: The Shanghai lead price may operate within a range in the short term, and beware of the price decline risk [42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai nickel contract NI2511 fell 940 yuan to 121,990 yuan/ton. The spot premiums remained unchanged [43] - **Related Information**: The Tatty nickel mine will restart, and some companies have investment or acquisition plans [44] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - atmosphere is relatively optimistic, but the LME inventory increase indicates an oversupply of refined nickel in China [47] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [48][49][50] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2511 contract fell 120 yuan to 12,935 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [52] - **Important Information**: Taiwan's Yieh United is applying for an anti - dumping investigation, and Japan has launched an anti - dumping investigation on stainless - steel products [53] - **Logic Analysis**: The approaching Fed's interest - rate cut, positive domestic policies, and the approaching consumption peak season support the stainless - steel price [53] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to remain high and oscillate. Wait and see for arbitrage [55] Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 272,540 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton or 0.07%. The spot market atmosphere was average [57] - **Related Information**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates, and the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased in August [58][59] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is tight, and the demand may be postponed. Pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision [60] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate within a range. Wait and see for options [61][62] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main industrial silicon futures contract oscillated strongly and closed at 8,965 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The spot price increased [64][65] - **Related Information**: An important article mentioned measures to promote the construction of a unified national market [66] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The supply and demand situation may change if the rumored production resumption occurs. The price has a bottom support [67] - **Strategy**: Long positions can be considered at low prices [68] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main polysilicon futures contract oscillated narrowly and closed at 53,490 yuan/ton, down 2.09%. The spot price range moved up [69][71] - **Related Information**: The national standard committee has completed the solicitation of opinions on relevant standards [71] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The long - term price trend is upward, but there is a short - term weakening. The 11 - contract price may return to the spot price [72] - **Strategy**: Buy at low prices and set stop - loss and take - profit points. Conduct reverse arbitrage on the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Take profit on selling out - of - the - money put options [73] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract rose 20 yuan to 73,640 yuan/ton. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [74] - **Important Information**: BYD launched a new electric - bus platform, and a new lithium - powder production project was proposed [75] - **Logic Analysis**: The market atmosphere is optimistic due to the Fed's interest - rate cut. The short - term supply and demand are both strong [77] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate and strengthen. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [78][79][80]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on non - ferrous metals released on September 15, 2025, covering multiple non - ferrous metal varieties including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The overall macro - environment shows that the market has increased expectations for three interest rate cuts within the year due to factors such as the US CPI in August and weak non - farm payroll data. Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper supply is tight, while alumina is in an oversupply situation. [8] Group 4: Copper Market Review - The Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 80,940 yuan/ton, up 0.35%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced positions by 1,572 lots to 520,900 lots. The spot market showed weakening procurement sentiment, with different regions having different changes in spot premiums. [2] Key Information - As of September 15, the national mainstream copper inventory increased by 0.99 tons to 15.42 tons. The planned merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources may create the world's largest copper mine in the early 2030s. China's new energy vehicle production in August 2025 increased significantly year - on - year. The average export benchmark price of copper concentrate in Indonesia in the second half of September increased by 2.29% compared to the first half. [3][4][5] Logic Analysis - Macroscopically, the market expects interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, copper supply is tight due to production accidents and policies, and consumption shows a marginal weakening trend. [8] Trading Strategies - For single - sided trading, consider laying out long positions after a pull - back and pay attention to the support level of $10,000/ton. Hold cross - market positive arbitrage positions and stay on the sidelines for options. [8] Group 5: Alumina Market Review - The alumina 2601 contract rose by 13 yuan to 2,935 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions decreased. [10] Key Information - India postponed the approval of an alumina project, which may delay the second - phase project of a factory. The weighted average full cost of alumina decreased, and the industry average profit increased. The national alumina production capacity and inventory situation changed. [11][12][14] Logic Analysis - Alumina supply and demand remain in an oversupply situation, with a weak fundamental trend, but beware of the impact of "anti - involution" sentiment on prices. [15] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading is expected to continue the weak operation pattern. Stay on the sidelines for both arbitrage and options trading. [16][17] Group 6: Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract rose by 5 yuan to 21,025 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions decreased. [19] Key Information - From January to August, real estate development data showed a decline. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased, and some overseas electrolytic aluminum projects had new developments. [19][21] Logic Analysis - Macroscopically, the market expects interest rate cuts, and overseas and domestic fundamentals support the price. Although there may be short - term inventory fluctuations, the annual supply - demand shortage pattern remains. [22] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and continue to be bullish on pull - backs. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [23][24] Group 7: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell by 25 to 20,545 yuan/ton. Spot prices in most regions increased. [26] Key Information - The policy of standardizing investment promotion affects the recycled aluminum industry, with some regions having more obvious impacts. The weighted average full cost of the ADC12 industry increased, and the theoretical profit expanded. The exchange will start the standard warehouse receipt generation business for cast aluminum alloy futures. [26][29][30] Logic Analysis - The policy affects the recycled aluminum industry, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and downstream demand is increasing. The alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and strong. [31] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Follow the upward trend of aluminum prices, and be bullish after pull - backs. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [32][33] Group 8: Zinc Market Review - The Shanghai zinc 2510 rose 0.13% to 22,310 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index reduced positions by 1,484 lots to 221,800 lots. The spot market had stable quotes and weak downstream demand. [35] Key Information - Domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and Peru's zinc concentrate production in July 2025 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. [36] Logic Analysis - In September, domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly, and consumption is weak. Overseas, LME inventory is decreasing, which supports the LME zinc price. The short - term Shanghai zinc price may rise. [39] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Zinc prices may be strong in the short term, and consider laying out short positions on rallies in the medium - to - long term. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [40] Group 9: Lead Market Review - The Shanghai lead 2510 rose 1.15% to 17,160 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index reduced positions by 3,021 lots to 91,400 lots. The spot market had different trading situations. [42] Key Information - Domestic lead ingot inventory increased, and the price of imported lead ore was at a loss. Some domestic smelters may advance winter storage plans. [43][44] Logic Analysis - Domestic secondary lead smelters are reducing production due to losses, and downstream pre - holiday stocking may support prices. However, if the lead ingot import window opens, prices may fall. [45] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The Shanghai lead price is expected to be strong in the short term, but beware of price drops after the inflow of imported lead ingots. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [47] Group 10: Nickel Market Review - The main Shanghai nickel contract NI2510 rose 1,390 to 122,580 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 690 lots. Spot premiums changed slightly. [49] Key Information - The land seizure incident in Indonesia had no major impact on nickel production. Vale Indonesia is in talks for three nickel smelter projects, and Zhongwei Co., Ltd.'s nickel smelting capacity in Indonesia is ramping up. [50] Logic Analysis - The market is concerned about the interest rate cut amplitude. Although it is the peak demand season, supply also increases, and LME inventory is rising, putting pressure on prices. [51] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [53] Group 11: Stainless Steel Market Review - The main SS2511 contract rose 155 to 13,070 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 3,671 lots. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given. [55] Key Information - Many stainless steel enterprises are carrying out low - carbon emission transformation, and global green trade rules are being reconstructed. [56] Logic Analysis - Macro - factors and the rise in nickel prices support stainless steel prices. With the approaching of the consumption peak season, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. [56] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage trading. [57][58] Group 12: Tin Market Review - The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 273,960 yuan/ton, up 1,110 yuan/ton or 0.41%. The spot price decreased slightly, and the terminal consumption situation was different in different industries. [60] Key Information - China's new energy vehicle production in August 2025 increased significantly year - on - year. Indonesia's refined tin export volume in August decreased by 49% year - on - year. [61][62] Logic Analysis - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates. Tin ore supply is tight, and demand may be postponed. LME and domestic inventories are increasing. [63] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the increase in inventory restricts the upward space. Stay on the sidelines for options trading. [64] Group 13: Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures main contract rose 0.86% to 8,800 yuan/ton after an intraday high - low fluctuation. Spot prices in Xinjiang increased by 50 yuan/ton, while other regions remained stable. [65][66] Key Information - An important article will be published emphasizing the construction of a unified national market. The production and inventory data of industrial silicon and its downstream products are given. [67][69] Logic Analysis - As leading manufacturers resume production, the supply - demand of industrial silicon will change from tight balance to slight surplus. Although the price may pull back, the cost increase and low inventory will limit the decline. [69] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Buy on pull - backs. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options after a pull - back. Participate in reverse arbitrage for the 11 and 12 contracts. [70] Group 14: Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures main contract fell 0.34% to 53,545 yuan/ton. Spot prices had a certain range. [71] Key Information - The same important article about the unified national market construction is mentioned. The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, but there are short - term multi - empty factors. [72] Logic Analysis - The long - term price of polysilicon is likely to rise, but in the short term, there are factors such as the cancellation of 11 - contract warehouse receipts that may cause a deep pull - back. [74] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Fluctuate in the short term and buy on pull - backs in the medium - to - long term. Participate in reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Hold sold out - of - the - money put options. [75] Group 15: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2511 contract rose 1,640 to 72,680 yuan/ton, the index reduced positions by 652 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increased by 338 to 38,963 tons. Spot prices remained stable. [76] Key Information - The Ministry of Commerce promotes automobile consumption, and Zijin Mining's lithium project in Argentina is put into production. The Brazilian federal prosecutor's office requires the review of lithium mining licenses. [77][78] Logic Analysis - The overall atmosphere is optimistic with the Fed's possible interest rate cut. Although demand is strong, long - term supply is also increasing, and prices need to fluctuate and consolidate. [81] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The price is expected to fluctuate widely. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage trading. [82][83] Group 16: Price and Related Data - Multiple tables show the daily data of various non - ferrous metals, including spot prices, futures prices, spreads, industry profits, and inventory data from September 9 to September 15, 2025, as well as the comparison with the previous weekend and the end of the previous month. [85][86][87] Group 17: Charts - There are many charts showing the historical trends of various indicators of non - ferrous metals such as spot premiums, term structures, import and export profits, and inventory, providing visual references for price analysis. [96][100][104]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, the market anticipates a Fed rate cut in September due to inflation and consumer sentiment. Despite supply disruptions, overall supply is sufficient, and demand may show a "not-so-peak season" pattern. The price is expected to consolidate at a high level [2][3][5] - For alumina, the price is expected to remain weak as supply stays high, and the surplus will gradually be reflected in social inventory [12][13] - For electrolytic aluminum, the price may be supported by the expected rate cut and the upcoming consumption season. Attention should be paid to inventory trends and overseas project progress [16][20] - For casting aluminum alloy, the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The industry is affected by policy changes, and the supply is tightening [22][27][28] - For zinc, the price may be range-bound and bullish in the short term due to external support and the consumption season, despite the oversupply situation [33][35][36] - For lead, the price may rise slightly as smelter production cuts increase [40][41] - For nickel, the price may fluctuate strongly in the short term due to macro events and potential supply disruptions [44][45][46] - For stainless steel, the price is expected to follow the upward trend of nickel and show a strong oscillation [48][51][52] - For tin, the price may remain volatile as the demand peak season has not materialized [55][58][59] - For industrial silicon, the price may rebound in the short term due to supply - side reform expectations and increased demand from polysilicon [61][63][64] - For polysilicon, the price is expected to rise, and it is recommended to hold long positions and take partial profits near the previous high [67][68][69] - For lithium carbonate, the price may continue to decline in the short term and is waiting for a stabilization signal [70][73][74] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai copper 2510 closed at 79,660 yuan/ton, down 0.06%, and the open interest increased. The spot market was weak due to high prices [2] - **Important Information**: Statements from the US Treasury Secretary, a call from the German economic minister, a production cut at a Chilean mine, and other news [2] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro data strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut. The supply decreased in August and September, but imports increased. Consumption showed a weakening trend [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Consolidate at a high level for single - side trading. Consider cross - market positive arbitrage and cross - month arbitrage. Wait and see for options [5] Alumina - **Market Review**: The futures price of alumina 2510 rose 18 yuan to 3,010 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price declined [7] - **Related Information**: Spot transactions, capacity operation, warehouse receipts, and production cuts due to environmental protection [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: The spot market became more active, but the price is expected to fall. The overall supply is high, and warehouse receipts may increase [12] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weak for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [13][14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2510 rose 50 yuan to 20,720 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price increased [16] - **Related Information**: PMI data, inventory changes, and overseas project progress [16][17] - **Trading Logic**: The expected rate cut and inventory trends are the focus. Overseas projects are progressing as planned [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The futures price of casting aluminum alloy 2511 rose 25 yuan to 20,300 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price was stable in most regions [22] - **Related Information**: Policy changes in the recycled aluminum industry, inventory changes, and import/export data [22][23][26] - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes affect the industry, and the supply is tightening. The price may be stable and slightly bullish [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate at a high level for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [25][28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2510 rose 0.59% to 22,325 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot market was average [31] - **Related Information**: Inventory increase and a production cut at a smelter [32] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc concentrate is sufficient, but the refined zinc output may decrease in September. Demand may improve in the consumption season [33][35] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound and bullish in the short term for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36] Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2510 rose 0.06% to 16,850 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot market had low procurement enthusiasm [38] - **Related Information**: Implementation of a new electric bicycle standard [39] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and smelter production cuts are increasing. Demand remains weak [40] - **Trading Strategy**: The price may rise slightly for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41][42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell 240 to 122,530 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot premium decreased [44] - **Related Information**: Unrest in Indonesia, new RKAB quota regulations, and project awards [45] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro events may increase price volatility. Although the unrest has not affected production, there are potential risks [45] - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate strongly for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [46][49] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The futures price of SS2510 rose 85 to 12,960 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price was stable [48] - **Important Information**: Rising nickel prices and global stainless - steel production data [51] - **Logic Analysis**: The price follows the upward trend of nickel. Inventory decreased slightly, and the consumption season may bring optimism [51] - **Trading Strategy**: Strong oscillation for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage [52][53] Tin - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai tin 2510 rose 210 yuan/ton to 273,980 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot market was quiet [55] - **Related Information**: Statements from the US Treasury Secretary and a production cut at a smelter [56] - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's dovish stance continues. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and demand is in the off - season [58] - **Trading Strategy**: Volatile for single - side trading. Wait and see for options [59][60] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The futures price of industrial silicon rose 1.13% to 8,470 yuan/ton. The spot price was mostly stable [61] - **Related Information**: A silicon - field standardization workshop will be held during the silicon industry conference [62] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The demand from the silicone industry may weaken, while that from polysilicon may increase. Supply is becoming more abundant. The price may rebound [63] - **Strategy**: May rebound in the short term for single - side trading. Reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts. No options strategy [64] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The futures price of polysilicon rose 3.97% to 51,875 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable [67] - **Related Information**: Domestic polysilicon prices increased [68] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Although production may increase in September, sales restrictions and potential production cuts may drive the price up [68] - **Strategy**: Hold long positions and take partial profits near the previous high for single - side trading. Reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold call options [69] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The futures price of the 2511 contract fell 3,260 to 72,620 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price decreased [70] - **Important Information**: Porsche's business adjustment, a new battery factory, and a lithium sulfide project [71][72] - **Logic Analysis**: Battery and cathode production is expected to increase in September, but supply may be affected. The price may continue to decline [73] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for stabilization for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [74][75]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by macro factors and supply - demand fundamentals. With the opening of the import window, the inflow of imported goods exerts pressure on prices, while downstream demand shows rigid procurement [8]. - The alumina market is influenced by policy changes and supply - demand imbalances. The overall supply is tight, and the actual demand is weak [15][31]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is affected by overseas sanctions and domestic inventory changes. The domestic price is relatively resistant to decline compared with the external market [23]. - The zinc market has a bearish fundamental situation with increasing domestic supply and weak terminal consumption, but the LME zinc price may be supported in the short - term [38]. - The lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand. The production of recycled lead is reduced due to losses, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [42][43]. - The nickel market has a large supply surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely, waiting for macro changes [48]. - The stainless steel market is affected by external demand and cost factors. The price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [55]. - The tin market is in a tight - balance state of supply and demand. The supply of ore is tight, and the production of smelters is affected. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery signals [62]. - The industrial silicon market is in a tight - balance state with high inventory. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [68]. - The polysilicon market has an oversupply situation in August, but the spot price is rising. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [72]. - The lithium carbonate market may continue to adjust at a high level in the short - term, and there may be an opportunity for a second - round rise after the stabilization of the commodity index [77]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,540 yuan/ton, down 0.05%, and the open interest of the Shanghai copper index decreased by 732 lots to 460,600 lots. The spot premium in Shanghai decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 160 yuan/ton [2]. - **Important Information**: In July, China's scrap copper imports increased by 3.73% month - on - month to 183,200 tons, and refined copper exports increased by nearly 50% month - on - month to 118,398 tons. On August 20, Blue Moon Metals obtained at least $140 million in financing for the Nussir copper project in Norway, which is expected to be put into production in September 2027 [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market focuses on the future interest - rate cut rhythm. The supply of copper ore has been alleviated, and the inflow of imported goods exerts pressure on prices. Downstream demand shows rigid procurement [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term supply increase puts pressure on copper prices; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [12]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose by 80 yuan to 20,125 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 73 lots to 9,553 lots. The spot price of aluminum ingots in different regions increased [10]. - **Important Information**: The four - ministry notice affects the recycled aluminum industry. In July, the weighted average full cost of the Chinese casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry increased by 85 yuan/ton compared with June, and the profit per ton increased by 104 yuan/ton. On August 21, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three places decreased by 66 tons [10][11][27][29]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the overall market supply is tight. The actual demand is weak [15][31]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price fluctuates with the aluminum price; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [16][17][32][33]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract rose by 100 yuan to 20,620 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 1,003 lots to 564,100 lots. The spot price of aluminum ingots in different regions increased [19]. - **Important Information**: The Fed's July meeting minutes showed a hawkish signal. The White House is considering a tri - party meeting. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the import and export volume changed in July [19][20][22]. - **Trading Logic**: Overseas sanctions on Russian aluminum and the Jackson Hole meeting affect the market. The domestic inventory decline may make the domestic price relatively resistant to decline [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price fluctuates with the external market in the short - term; recommend short - term arbitrage strategies and waiting and seeing for options [24][25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2510 rose by 0.09% to 22,265 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the Shanghai zinc index increased by 1,549 lots to 216,200 lots. The spot trading in Shanghai was weak [35]. - **Important Information**: As of August 21, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places was 132,900 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons compared with August 18. The safety inspection in northern lead - zinc mines has increased [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply is increasing, and the terminal consumption is weak. The LME zinc price may be supported in the short - term [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price may fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [38]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2510 fell by 0.45% to 16,740 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the Shanghai lead index increased by 3,663 lots to 96,400 lots. The spot trading of refined lead was difficult [40]. - **Important Information**: As of August 21, the social inventory of lead ingots was 69,900 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons compared with August 18 [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The consumption is weak, and the loss of recycled lead smelters is expanding, resulting in a reduction in production [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to sell high and buy low; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [43]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell by 360 yuan to 119,830 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased by 3,803 lots. The spot premium of different types of nickel increased [45][46]. - **Important Information**: In June 2025, the global refined nickel supply surplus was 12,600 tons, and from January to June, the supply surplus was 180,000 tons [47]. - **Logic Analysis**: The nickel supply surplus is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in the report Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract SS2510 fell by 35 yuan to 12,795 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased by 3,900 lots. The spot price of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel is given [50]. - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel casting project in Zhejiang started construction. The sample inventory in Foshan decreased slightly, while the social inventory in 89 warehouses increased [51][55]. - **Logic Analysis**: The external demand is affected by the global economy and tariffs, and the price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [55]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate widely; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and selling out - of - the - money put options [53][56]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2509 closed at 266,480 yuan/ton, down 1,960 yuan/ton or 0.73%. The spot price of tin ingots decreased [59]. - **Important Information**: In June 2025, the global refined tin supply shortage was 3,500 tons, and from January to June, the supply shortage was 7,800 tons [60]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's attitude affects the market. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the production of smelters is affected. The market is in a tight - balance state [61][62]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to continue to oscillate; recommend waiting and seeing for options [63][64]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures rose by 3.66% to 8,635 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained stable [65][66]. - **Important Information**: A product of Xin'an Co., Ltd. was included in the list of excellent industrial new products in Zhejiang [67]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is in a tight - balance state with high inventory, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [68]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to operate within a range; recommend participating in the reverse arbitrage of 11 and 12 contracts; recommend waiting and seeing for options [68]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures oscillated narrowly and closed at 51,530 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. The spot price of polysilicon increased [69][70]. - **Important Information**: The US government tightened the approval of renewable energy projects [71]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is an oversupply in August, but the spot price is rising, and it is recommended to buy on dips [72]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips; recommend conducting a positive arbitrage of 2511 and 2512 contracts; recommend selling out - of - the - money put options and buying call options [73]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate 2511 fell by 140 yuan to 82,760 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased by 21,134 lots. The spot price decreased [74]. - **Important Information**: A Chilean lithium producer expects an increase in sales in the third quarter. The tax department exposed tax - evasion cases in the "new three" fields. The new - energy vehicle market shows growth [75][76]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price may continue to adjust at a high level in the short - term, and there may be an opportunity for a second - round rise [77]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy after a sufficient correction; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage; recommend selling out - of - the - money put options of 2511 [78][79][80].

Group 1 - The main contract for industrial silicon futures has seen a daily decline of 4%, currently priced at 8300 yuan per ton [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with short - term prices under pressure and in a volatile state. The aluminum market is affected by macro - economic factors and fundamentals, with short - term price pressure. The zinc market has sufficient supply in the medium - to - long term and weak consumption, with prices under pressure. The lead market has cost support, and the prices have a certain bottom - line. The nickel market has limited driving forces for prices and maintains a volatile state. The stainless steel market is affected by macro - expectations and cost factors, with short - term prices returning to the volatile range. The tin market is affected by supply and demand, with short - term prices following market sentiment. The industrial silicon market is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long term, and the short - term may have a rebound. The polycrystalline silicon market may have a short - term correction and then be involved in the market with a long - position and protective put option strategy. The lithium carbonate market has high short - term speculative sentiment and high uncertainty, and investors are advised to wait for policy implementation [7][23][39][44][49][56][64][70][75][81]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,840 yuan/ton, down 0.18%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced its position by 2,049 lots to 496,800 lots. The spot premium of Shanghai copper was firm, and the spot premium in North China increased slightly [2]. - **Important Information**: The bonded - area copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong continued to increase. Teck Resource's copper production in Q2 2025 decreased year - on - year, and its annual production guidance was lowered. The production schedule of white - goods in August decreased compared to the same period last year [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The impact of reciprocal tariffs may be relatively mild. The domestic smelters maintain high production, and the market is mainly disturbed by the expectation of copper tariffs. The inventory has increased, and the downstream procurement has slightly increased [5][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The spot supply and demand are weak, and it is under pressure and volatile in the short term [7]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2509 contract rose 33 yuan to 3,307 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 7,296 lots to 359,400 lots. The spot prices in various regions increased [9]. - **Related Information**: Some alumina enterprises did not receive environmental - control notices. The replacement projects of large - scale alumina enterprises in Shandong were put into production, and the roasting project in Gansu was about to produce. The alumina plant in Guinea had a strike [10][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the reduction of positions and decline, it stabilized in the short term. The operating capacity increased, and the theoretical surplus expanded. The inventory has been increasing, and attention should be paid to the changes in warehouse receipts [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The low warehouse receipts may drive the price to rebound. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [15][16]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell 45 yuan/ton to 20,605 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 12,072 lots. The spot prices in various regions decreased [18]. - **Related Information**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased. Sino - US economic and trade talks were held, and the price law was being revised. Huafeng Aluminum planned to purchase aluminum products [19][20][22]. - **Trading Logic**: The LME aluminum price fluctuated and then declined. The domestic market should pay attention to policy expectations. The inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of the widening of the monthly spread [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is under pressure in the short term. Enter the long - spread position of 09 - 12 contracts after the spread converges due to inventory accumulation. Temporarily wait and see for options [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 15 yuan to 20,020 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 246 lots. The spot prices in various regions remained unchanged [26]. - **Related Information**: The production of cast aluminum alloy decreased, and the price law was being revised [26][27]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply is restricted by the shortage of scrap - aluminum sources, and the demand is affected by different orders. The futures price is mainly affected by the cost following the aluminum price [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is under pressure following the aluminum price. Consider the cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunity when the spot discount to the futures is more than 300 yuan. Temporarily wait and see for options [31][32]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2509 fell 0.35% to 22,655 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 6,419 lots. The spot trading was average, and the premium was basically stable [34]. - **Related Information**: Heavy rainfall in North China did not affect the production and transportation of galvanized plants. The zinc concentrate production of some mines increased [35][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The zinc concentrate market is stable, and the port inventory has decreased. The domestic refined zinc production may increase. The consumption is in the off - season, and the downstream procurement is weak [37][39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Profitable short - positions can continue to be held, and attention should be paid to setting stop - profit points. Buy put options. Temporarily wait and see for options [40][41]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2509 fell 0.24% to 16,900 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 5,605 lots. The spot price was stable, and the downstream purchasing willingness improved slightly [42]. - **Related Information**: Heavy rainfall affected the raw - material transportation of recycled lead smelters [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The lead price has cost support, and the production of primary and recycled lead is affected. The terminal consumption of lead - acid batteries has improved slightly [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Profitable long - positions can continue to be held, and attention should be paid to macro - risks. Sell put options. Temporarily wait and see for options [45][47]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2509 fell 1,040 to 121,800 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 3,705 lots. The premiums of different brands of nickel changed [48]. - **Related Information**: The Fed may continue to cut interest rates. A large - scale nickel project in Southeast Sulawesi is expected to start in Q4 2025 [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The commodity atmosphere has weakened, and the nickel price has a limited decline. The supply and demand are weak in July and August, and the price lacks driving forces [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price follows the macro - atmosphere. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [50][52]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell 15 to 12,920 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 8,224 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were given [54]. - **Related Information**: The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project will drive the demand for stainless steel. A stainless - steel project of Guangqing Metal Technology is expected to be put into production in 2026 [55][56]. - **Logic Analysis**: The speculative atmosphere has cooled down. The external demand is restricted, and the internal demand is in the off - season. The cost has an impact on the price, and the market pays attention to macro - expectations [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price returns to the volatile range. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage [57][58]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2509 closed at 266,660 yuan/ton, down 0.76%, and the position decreased by 2,289 lots. The spot price decreased, and the trading was restricted [60]. - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held, and a national industrial - information conference was convened [61]. - **Logic Analysis**: The LME inventory increased slightly. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak in the off - season. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery signals [62][64]. - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price follows the market sentiment. Temporarily wait and see for options [65][66]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon opened high and closed at 9,350 yuan/ton. The spot prices generally weakened [67][68]. - **Related Information**: It is rumored that an anti - involution meeting will be held in August [69]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The supply has increased, and the demand of some downstream products has changed. The social inventory has decreased. The price may decline in the medium - to - long term [70]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may rebound, and it is weak in the medium - to - long term. Hold the previous protective put options. Participate in the reverse - spread of 11 and 12 contracts, the cash - and - carry arbitrage of 11 and 10 contracts, and the butterfly spread strategy [71]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polycrystalline silicon futures rose sharply and closed at 50,805 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of polycrystalline silicon were given [73]. - **Related Information**: The price of photovoltaic silicon wafers continued to rise [74]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has declined, and the price may have a correction. The capacity integration is imperative, and the silicon - wafer price adjustment is completed [75]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may have a correction, and then participate in the market with a long - position and protective put option strategy. Hold the long - polycrystalline - silicon and short - industrial - silicon position for a long time and conduct the reverse - spread of far - month contracts of polycrystalline silicon [76]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract fell 4,440 to 70,840 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 78,853 lots. The spot prices decreased [77]. - **Important Information**: The sales of new - energy vehicles in the world increased in H1 2025, and China had a high share [78]. - **Logic Analysis**: The situation of the ore end is uncertain, and the price may test the support at 65,000 [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term speculative sentiment is strong, and the fundamentals are uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see. Enterprises with long - term contracts can consider cash - and - carry arbitrage. Temporarily wait and see for options [82][84].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on non-ferrous metals from the Commodity Research Institute, dated July 23, 2025 [2] - It covers various non-ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, casting aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate - It provides market reviews, important information, trading strategies, and price and related data for each metal Group 2: Market Reviews Copper - The Shanghai Copper 2509 contract closed at 79,590 yuan/ton, down 0.08%, with the Shanghai Copper Index adding 73 lots to 512,000 lots [2] - In the spot market, copper prices in the East China market were above 79,500 yuan/ton, suppressing downstream purchasing sentiment. In the South China market, inventory decreased but demand was low. In the North China market, demand expectations were not optimistic [2] Alumina - The Alumina 2509 contract fell 97 yuan to 3,355 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 19,393 lots to 388,300 lots [9] - Spot prices in various regions increased, with the Aladdin Alumina North Spot Composite up 40 yuan to 3,230 yuan [9] Electrolytic Aluminum - The Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract fell 75 yuan/ton to 20,815 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 3,190 lots to 691,200 lots [17] - Spot prices in different regions decreased, and coal prices increased [17] Casting Aluminum Alloy - The Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract fell 60 yuan to 20,155 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 520 lots to 11,008 lots [26] - Spot prices in various regions remained flat [26] Zinc - The Shanghai Zinc 2509 rose 0.5% to 22,975 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Zinc Index adding 4,437 lots to 241,600 lots [33] - In the spot market, trading was light and the spot premium was weak [33] Lead - The Shanghai Lead 2509 fell 0.44% to 16,850 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Lead Index adding 601 lots to 102,100 lots [40] - In the spot market, the price of regenerated refined lead was stable, and the willingness of holders to sell and downstream enterprises to buy was low [40] Nickel - The main contract of Shanghai Nickel, NI2509, fell 70 to 123,370 yuan/ton, with the index positions decreasing by 2,860 lots [46] - The premiums of Jinchuan Nickel, Russian Nickel, and Electrowon Nickel changed slightly [46] Stainless Steel - The main contract of stainless steel, SS2509, rose 10 to 12,900 yuan/ton, with the index positions increasing by 7,690 lots [53] - Spot prices of cold-rolled and hot-rolled stainless steel were reported [53] Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon futures rose 0.58% to 9,525 yuan/ton after a sharp rise and fall [60] - Spot prices of industrial silicon increased significantly [61] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon futures rose 5.5% to 50,080 yuan/ton after a sharp correction [66] - Spot prices of various types of polysilicon increased [66] Lithium Carbonate - The main contract of lithium carbonate, 2509, fell 2,940 to 69,380 yuan/ton, with the index positions decreasing by 27,082 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increasing by 665 to 10,754 tons [69] - Spot prices of electric carbon and industrial carbon increased [71] Group 3: Important Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce a stable growth plan for ten key industries including non-ferrous metals, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [3][4][10][22][67] - In the second quarter of 2025, copper production increased, and several mining companies' copper production also grew [3][4] - Kazakhstan plans to double its copper production by 2030 [4] - Canada's Solaris Resources hopes its Warintza project will start production in 2030 [4] - Germany announced an investment plan of over 630 billion euros to boost the economy [4] - The 232 tariff on copper will take effect on August 1, with a 50% tariff rate [7] - Some trade-related agreements and negotiations are in progress, such as the US-Philippines trade agreement and the US-Thailand trade negotiation [19][22][47] Group 4: Trading Strategies Copper - Unilateral: Short-term bullish, copper prices are expected to be strong [12] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [12] - Options: Wait and see [12] Alumina - Unilateral: Short-term wide-range volatile [15] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [15] - Options: Wait and see [15] Electrolytic Aluminum - Unilateral: Short-term high-level volatile [24] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [24] - Options: Wait and see [24] Casting Aluminum Alloy - Unilateral: Volatile at a high level following aluminum prices [30] - Arbitrage: Consider cash-and-carry arbitrage when the cash-futures spread is above 300 - 400 yuan [31] - Options: Wait and see [31] Zinc - Unilateral: Short-term bullish, short-term long positions can be considered [39] Lead - Unilateral: At a relatively low price, long positions can be lightly tried under the cost support of secondary lead [43] - Arbitrage: Sell put options [44] - Options: Wait and see [44] Nickel - Unilateral: Short-term follow the macro atmosphere [49] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [50] - Options: Sell deep out-of-the-money put options [51] Stainless Steel - Unilateral: Volatile and bullish [57] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [58] Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Close long positions [63] - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts, and positive arbitrage for the 11th and 10th contracts [65] - Options: Buy protective put options [63] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short-term bullish, pay attention to the number of warehouse receipts [68] - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage for far-month contracts [68] - Options: None [68] Lithium Carbonate - Unilateral: Short-term follow the trend [74] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [75] - Options: Sell deep out-of-the-money put options [76] Group 5: Price and Related Data - The report provides daily data tables for each metal, including spot prices, futures prices, spreads, ratios, import and export profits, and inventory data [78][79][80][81][82][83][84][85][86][87] - It also includes various charts showing the trends of prices, spreads, and inventories over time [90][92][97][99][103][111][113][116][121][127][129][134][139][142][145][152][154][159][165][172][174][181][183][189][191]